2024-10-14 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Indexes - In my weekly post yesterday I wrote “max bullish” a couple of times and I hope you did not short this today. Bulls are in absolute control and they have no reason to stop buying every small dip. You can not be a bear on the hope that this madness will stop eventually. It can go much further than you can imagine. Strong day, strong close, can only expect higher prices until bears print consecutive big bear bars on higher time frames. My best guess is still a blow-off top this week, which can mark the top before we see a bigger correction. Today felt like we are already in it.
sp500 e-mini futures
comment: Break above both bull wedges. Could this be a bull trap? I highly doubt that. 6000 will very likely be hit this year.
current market cycle: max bullish
key levels: 5860 - 6000
bull case: Bulls are in full control and we can only expect higher prices, given the strength of this follow through buying. We have a small channel which will likely break overnight and the next bull trend line is around 5890 already and aligns nicely with the 1h 20ema. Next obvious target is 6000.
Invalidation is below 5880.
bear case: Nothing really. Can they prevent 6000? Doubt it. Can they get a deeper pullback before we get there? Also doubt that. Anything below 5880 would surprise me. If they get it, 5850 is their next target and bigger support.
Invalidation is above 6050.
short term: Bullish af. Don’t look for shorts. Buy on pullbacks when bulls come around again.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-13 : Very rough guess for the remaining trading weeks in 2024. Spike up, decent correction (~10%), nasty (blow off top) year end rally if earnings hold in Q4. Don’t trade based on that guess.
current swing trade : None
trade of the day: Globex oscillated around last week’s close and after bar 10 it could not even touch the 15m 20ema again. Could have bought anywhere and made money except 15m before US close.
SPX (S&P 500 Index)
S&P500 Major bullish break out took placeThe S&P500 index broke above the Rising Resistance that was the top trendline of the Rising Wedge.
This transitions the price action from that pattern to the Channel Up, which has significant upside potential at the moment.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 6080 (+7.25% rise, same as the last rally).
Tips:
1. The RSI (4h) is overbought so expect the momentum to turn sideways for some days but that doesn't mean that the uptrend will stop. Similar thing happened during the previous bullish wave.
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xauusd h1 short from resistance tp 2635 usd🔸Hello traders, today let's review 1hour price chart for gold. Strong
V-shape recovery in progress off the recent lows, however heavy
overhead resistance will trigger a pullback from S/R levels overhead.
🔸Strong resistances at 2665 and 2675. key S/R bulls at 2635 usd.
currently getting overextended so it's recommended to focus on
short selling rips/rallies from overhead resistance.
🔸Recommended strategy bears: short sell from overhead resistances near 2665/75 SL 2680 USD TP 2635 usd. usd fixed stop loss for this entry at 2680 usd, swing trade setup may take more time to hit target. good luck traders!
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RISK DISCLAIMER:
Trading Futures , Forex, CFDs and Stocks involves a risk of loss.
Please consider carefully if such trading is appropriate for you.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Always limit your leverage and use tight stop loss.
#202441 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500 e-mini futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
sp500: Also max bullish. Bulls closed 8 points below the ath. Strong buy signal going into next week but the issue (again) is that you are buying above the bigger bull wedge and at the very high of a nested one. Waiting for a pullback to go long is the much more reasonable trade instead of buying near 5860. The wedge has room to 5900, so 6000 is a valid year end target. Bear case begins below 5750. 5800-5850 is neutral.
Quote from last week:
comment: Much bigger range than the previous week with wild moves the whole week. Bears sold it with spikes, followed by bulls who bought every dip. End result was 5800 again and now what? We are near the ath and can easily make a new one. The high was also high enough to count as a decent lower high and we sell off from here. Given the strong bull bar on Friday, we have to give the higher odds to the bulls to get follow through above and we will probably make a new ath.
comment: Two decent days were enough for the bulls to make new ath. Again a bad place to trade, 8 points below the new ath. We have nested bull wedges and market broke above the bigger one. Odds favor some pullback but I would rather wait and be flat than to short this.
current market cycle: nested bull wedges
key levels: 5750 - 5900
bull case: Bulls want 5900 and have all the arguments on their side. That still does not make buying 5859 a good buy. It’s possible that bulls break above both wedges and continue for 5900 and much higher, is it likely though? I doubt it.
What, no more text? We have two perfectly fitting patterns and are trading at the very highs. I have given precise invalidation prices. Don’t think more words will make this better. Just as more trades probably won’t make you more money. Quality over quantity.
Invalidation is below 5750.
bear case: Bears have nothing until they close below 5750. We are at the highs but so what? 5 Consecutive weekly bull bars say it all. Don’t look for shorts when bears do not make money other than scalping on time frames below 15m. When these two wedges break below, we will see a decent correction again and it’s possible over the next weeks but as of right now, bears are in pain and nothing else.
Invalidation is above 5910.
outlook last week:
short term: Neutral 5750 - 5850, big range but we are in the middle of that given range and both sides have reasonable arguments. If bulls get follow through above 5800, long scalps are a decent trade for 5830 or a bit higher. Right now I would not trade it.
→ Last Sunday we traded 5800 and now we are at 5859. Neutral range but I wrote above 5800 a long is good for 30 points or more. Good outlook.
short term : Neutral since we are exactly at the top of two big patterns and 8 points below the ath. Sitting on hands is best here.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-13: Very rough guess for the remaining trading weeks in 2024. Spike up, decent correction (~10%), nasty (blow off top) year end rally if earnings hold in Q4. Don’t trade based on that guess.
current swing trade: None
chart update : None
S&P uptrend continues as the market cheers strong earningsLast week, the bulls finally gained the conviction needed for a breakout. Fueled by strong banking earnings, the market has moved upward from its trading range, reaffirming the long-standing uptrend.
Both the short- and long-term outlooks remain bullish. More earnings reports are set to be released next week, but unless there are significant surprises, nothing is expected to change.
Combined US Equities Breakout late OctoberVery quickly, the expected breakdown did not happen, and this week saw the an across the board bullish breakout. Noted the breakout is long in the teeth (old and late) and while bullish, it is not strong nor convincingly sustainable. Reminiscent of this expectation is the MACD and VolDiv looking lackluster.
Expected top marked, and after 21 Oct needs a review... that would be the projected resistance for a stronger pullback.
Bullish for now and the week ahead.
Enjoy, make hay while the sun shines!
Swing Trade Opportunity - LONG WBAWBA has broken a long term downtrend line, creating a potential inverse HS in the process.
This company is due for a bounce at the very least.
Best case for longs is a longer term bottom and reversal being put in that can take us to the 200DMA or above.
See video for details
Looking For Next Market Top AgainLooking for next top
Submillennium 1
Grand Supercycle 5 - green
Supercycle 1
Cycle 5 - orange
Primary 5 - blue
Intermediate 5 - pink
Minor 5 - yellow
Minute 5 - green
I will try to find the next top off simply modified wave theory.
First we need to set the baseline. I prefer the chart SPX500USD as it encompasses 23 hour trading during the week and can capture movement not always distinguishable in the SP:SPX chart.
My first step is always to identify the location of wave 3 (if it exists). I do this by using my Elliott Wave 3 Finder v2 in conjunction with my RSI triple confirm indicator and a simple RSI 9.
My wave 3 indicator will have a painted background at potential wave 3 locations, blue background for bearish reversals and pink for bullish reversals. My triple confirm RSI should signal in conjunction with the actual wave 3 point, red for bearish reversals and green for bullish reversals. My wave 3 indicator tends to spot wave 3 of 3 by displaying a gap between painted backgrounds. These indicators signal upon market close and are not considered finalized signals until the next bar begins.
My baseline is in the 2 month chart. I have worked through the historical SPX chart and believe we are in the fifth and final wave (Grand Supercycle 5) of a larger structure (Sub Millennium 1) that began in the 1800s. This specific wave 5 began at the market bottom in 2009, and we are only in the first (Supercycle 1) of five waves to the upside. I do not expect a catastrophic market top for many decades to come.
This chart picks up around 2004 to the current time. We are likely in Cycle wave 5 which began at the market low in October 2022. I have determined Cycle wave 3 to have ended at the peak at the beginning of 2022 based on the wave 3 indicator and RSI agreeing on a reversal point. In the moment, I would not have agreed the market topped in January 2022 as the indicators were still signaling. It is only on the preceding bar not producing a signal that an event is confirmed. Next I will determine common wave extensions off (Fibonacci levels) of Cycle wave 3's movement which began at the low in January 2016 at 1,806.25 and ended at 4,820.20 in January 2022. Wave 3 moved 3,013.95 points. Cycle wave 5 could move 123.6% to 138.2% of Wave 3's movement. These means a potential endpoint is between 5,531.49-5,971.53. This will be the orange outlined box in the following charts and the main chart above.
Next I will try to identify a current Primary wave 3 inside of Cycle wave 5. My indicators point to Primary wave 3 ending around the mid-July 2024 on the 2-day chart based on the gap in the wave 3 indicators. There is not an RSI 3 signal in the 2-day chart for Primary wave 3, but there was one for Minor wave 3 in Intermediate wave 3 in Primary wave 3 around February 12, 2024. We can attempt to confirm this by seeing where the end of Intermediate wave 5's movement extended too. If Intermediate wave 3 began January 5, 2024 and ended March 29, 2024, Intermediate wave 5 topped close to 161.8% of Intermediate wave 3's movement as seen below:
Based on this assumption, Primary wave 3 was likely over by mid-July 2024. The next Fibonacci wave extension levels for Cycle wave 5 could see this wave end between 108-123.6% of Primary wave 3's movement. This places a potential top between 5,806.48-6,052.34. This will be the light blue outlined box in the following charts and the main chart above.
We will next move inside of Primary wave 5 which possibly began at the low from the beginning of August 2024. In looking for Intermediate wave 3 inside of Primary wave 5, the indicators point to Minor wave 3 of Intermediate wave 3 occurring on September 19, 2024 and the Minute wave 3 inside of Minor wave 3 occurring on September 13. If we find the Intermediate wave 5 extension from this Intermediate wave 3, a potential top sits between 5,816.26-5,936.51. This will be the pink outlined box in the following charts and the main chart above.
Next we try to identify where we are in Intermediate wave 5. The 2-hour chart here indicates a possible Minor wave 3 occurring on October 9, 2024. A possible Minor wave 5 extension from here is a top between 5,825.38-5,868.50. This will be the yellow outlined box in the following charts and the main chart above.
We can attempt to go a final level deeper inside of Minor wave 5. We currently have Minute wave 3 indications based on the high from earlier today at 5826.90. If this is the end of Minute wave 3, Minute 5 could top between 5,834.16-5,857.61. This will be the yellow outlined box in the following charts and the main chart above. Based on a this wave set being over a small timeframe, this top could happen before next Tuesday. This is zone of interest for a near-term top.
This is purely theoretical, but Israel will likely strike at Iran soon. Iran has claimed they would respond quickly, but the prior instances saw long delays in the response. If Iran has an immediate response, a full on conflict would be underway in the Middle East. Not all wars are bad, but this one would likely impact oil and depending on the duration likely impact economies around the world. A contained conflict between a few nations likely would not spiral into a larger conflict, however, strong alliances on other side could turn this into a much greater event, closer to a world war situation. As drastic as this is, it could explain a potential near-term top. If conflict does not break out, we will likely see a short-term market top before continued movement higher and higher. Time will tell. Enjoy!
ES levels and targets Oct 11After Wednesday’s breakout, 5840-5815 became the new flag, just as expected. ES respected those levels, with 5815 tested five times and 5840 three times.
As of now: No change. 5815 and 5809-11 (weak) are support levels. As long as they hold, 5829 and 5840 remain in play, with a potential breakout. If 5809 fails, 5792 next down
75% gains BUY/HOLD IWM/RUS2K C*H trade setup🔸Hello traders, today let's review 2daily chart for IWM . Entering re-accumulation stage now, expecting range bound trading during next fer months. We've hit heavy overhead resistace / limited upside currently.
🔸The speculative chart pattern is bullish C*H in progress, expect more range locked price action for a few months as we re-accumulate and get ready to clear the ATH. Measured move price projectiong for the C*H structure is 350 USD, 75% upside from the recommended BUY ZONE.
🔸Recommended strategy bulls: wait for IWM to re-accumulate in the sliding
bull flag formation and get ready to BUY/HOLD low near 200 USD, target
based on measured move projection is 350 USD. good luck traders!
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RISK DISCLAIMER:
Trading Futures , Forex, CFDs and Stocks involves a risk of loss.
Please consider carefully if such trading is appropriate for you.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Always limit your leverage and use tight stop loss.
SPX Will Go Lower! Sell!
Take a look at our analysis for SPX.
Time Frame: 4h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is trading around a solid horizontal structure 5,780.02.
The above observations make me that the market will inevitably achieve 5,678.77 level.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
RESEND: ES trading plan for CPI Day Oct 10thSupports:
• Major: 5822-24, 5805, 5795, 5747-51, 5730, 5711, 5703, 5691, 5675, 5665, 5646
• Minor: 5828, 5815, 5810, 5790, 5780, 5773, 5764, 5757, 5740, 5725, 5715, 5686, 5682, 5672, 5657
What I’m Watching:
•Tomorrow is CPI day. We’ve seen a massive rally from Thursday’s lows, breaking out of a two-week bull flag. However, as I’ve said, this isn’t the ideal time to trade.
• Post-rally setups are scarce. Long entries are risky because we’ve already had 15+ tests/failed breakdowns of support, and now we’ve moved significantly higher. If you didn’t enter early, it’s not a great time to force trades. Shorts are also risky as we’re still in a bull market and at all-time highs (ATHs).
• To make matters more complicated, tomorrow is CPI day, which is historically volatile, trappy, and unpredictable. For great traders, capital preservation is always key, so many avoid trading right after CPI releases. My focus tomorrow is protecting profits, and any trade will risk only 20% of my recent gains.
• CPI days often see massive moves (70+ points either way), so keep expectations flexible. The primary task for buyers will be to defend today’s bull flag breakout at 5795. If we get a CPI flush, buyers will want to defend 5795 or reclaim it quickly. Be cautious, especially below 5795. Many levels below have been heavily tested, so if 5795 breaks, we could see a rapid move lower.
• If we test 5795 and reclaim 5805, or if we flush 5790 and recover 5795, those could present long entries, especially if accompanied by volume confirmation. Be patient with entries tomorrow, and remember that breakdowns are often traps.
Resistances:
• Major: 5847, 5862, 5881, 5890, 5897, 5923, 5950-55, 5970
• Minor: 5840, 5852, 5855, 5869, 5876, 5904, 5908, 5917, 5932, 5936, 5941, 5965
• As a rule, I don’t counter-trend short ES in a bull market. I haven’t taken a short loss in nearly 2 years because I don’t fight ES in uptrends. However, for those interested in counter-trend shorting, 5881 and 5897 are levels where you might find some resistance.
Buyer’s Case for Tomorrow:
• Straightforward: We’ve broken out of a bull flag at 5795, and tomorrow buyers will need to defend it. If CPI causes a flush, we don’t want to see any significant move below 5795, or if it does break, buyers need to reclaim it quickly. As long as this zone holds, we remain in an active bull flag breakout, and the target becomes 5862, 5881, and 5890-97. Clearing that range opens the path to 5950-55 and potentially 6000.
• I wouldn’t recommend adding longs after a 100+ point rally on a CPI day, but in a normal scenario, flagging below today’s highs or above 5822 would be considered bullish. Watch for volume to confirm these entries if so.
Seller’s Case for Tomorrow:
• Sellers’ case begins with a failure of 5795. After such a significant rally, a correction wouldn’t necessarily be bearish in the big picture, just a healthy pullback. However, for short-term trades, losing 5795 is critical.
• Breakdown trades require a specific setup. I need to see a test or a failed breakdown first, which helps remove demand from the level. Once this happens, I’ll look to enter slightly below the structure. For example, a test of 5795 or 5805, followed by a failed breakdown, would be the signal to short, likely triggering around 5792. On CPI days, though, this pattern might not materialize and the market could simply flush without providing the structure.
Summary for Tomorrow:
• It’s been a great run, so I’m shifting to profit protection until CPI passes. Anything can happen tomorrow, but I lean toward following the trend and trading based on what’s in front of me. We’ve broken out of a bull flag at 5795, and as long as that holds, targets include 5863, 5881, and 5890-97. If 5795 fails, it means today’s breakout has failed, and sellers could take control.
Follow for updates every morning at 8:15 Eastern on TradingView
ES Trading Plan for CPI Day Oct 11thSupports:
• Major: 5822-24, 5805, 5795, 5747-51, 5730, 5711, 5703, 5691, 5675, 5665, 5646
• Minor: 5828, 5815, 5810, 5790, 5780, 5773, 5764, 5757, 5740, 5725, 5715, 5686, 5682, 5672, 5657
What I’m Watching:
•Tomorrow is CPI day. We’ve seen a massive rally from Thursday’s lows, breaking out of a two-week bull flag. However, as I’ve said, this isn’t the ideal time to trade.
• Post-rally setups are scarce. Long entries are risky because we’ve already had 15+ tests/failed breakdowns of support, and now we’ve moved significantly higher. If you didn’t enter early, it’s not a great time to force trades. Shorts are also risky as we’re still in a bull market and at all-time highs (ATHs).
• To make matters more complicated, tomorrow is CPI day, which is historically volatile, trappy, and unpredictable. For great traders, capital preservation is always key, so many avoid trading right after CPI releases. My focus tomorrow is protecting profits, and any trade will risk only 20% of my recent gains.
• CPI days often see massive moves (70+ points either way), so keep expectations flexible. The primary task for buyers will be to defend today’s bull flag breakout at 5795. If we get a CPI flush, buyers will want to defend 5795 or reclaim it quickly. Be cautious, especially below 5795. Many levels below have been heavily tested, so if 5795 breaks, we could see a rapid move lower.
• If we test 5795 and reclaim 5805, or if we flush 5790 and recover 5795, those could present long entries, especially if accompanied by volume confirmation. Be patient with entries tomorrow, and remember that breakdowns are often traps.
Resistances:
• Major: 5847, 5862, 5881, 5890, 5897, 5923, 5950-55, 5970
• Minor: 5840, 5852, 5855, 5869, 5876, 5904, 5908, 5917, 5932, 5936, 5941, 5965
• As a rule, I don’t counter-trend short ES in a bull market. I haven’t taken a short loss in nearly 2 years because I don’t fight ES in uptrends. However, for those interested in counter-trend shorting, 5881 and 5897 are levels where you might find some resistance.
Buyer’s Case for Tomorrow:
• Straightforward: We’ve broken out of a bull flag at 5795, and tomorrow buyers will need to defend it. If CPI causes a flush, we don’t want to see any significant move below 5795, or if it does break, buyers need to reclaim it quickly. As long as this zone holds, we remain in an active bull flag breakout, and the target becomes 5862, 5881, and 5890-97. Clearing that range opens the path to 5950-55 and potentially 6000.
• I wouldn’t recommend adding longs after a 100+ point rally on a CPI day, but in a normal scenario, flagging below today’s highs or above 5822 would be considered bullish. Watch for volume to confirm these entries if so.
Seller’s Case for Tomorrow:
• Sellers’ case begins with a failure of 5795. After such a significant rally, a correction wouldn’t necessarily be bearish in the big picture, just a healthy pullback. However, for short-term trades, losing 5795 is critical.
• Breakdown trades require a specific setup. I need to see a test or a failed breakdown first, which helps remove demand from the level. Once this happens, I’ll look to enter slightly below the structure. For example, a test of 5795 or 5805, followed by a failed breakdown, would be the signal to short, likely triggering around 5792. On CPI days, though, this pattern might not materialize and the market could simply flush without providing the structure.
Summary for Tomorrow:
• It’s been a great run, so I’m shifting to profit protection until CPI passes. Anything can happen tomorrow, but I lean toward following the trend and trading based on what’s in front of me. We’ve broken out of a bull flag at 5795, and as long as that holds, targets include 5863, 5881, and 5890-97. If 5795 fails, it means today’s breakout has failed, and sellers could take control.
Follow for updates every morning at 8:15 Eastern on TradingView
ES levels and targets Oct 9thFor the past 2-3 weeks, ES has been bouncing between the 5805 and 5740-30 range. Yesterday, I was watching for a rally to 5805, and we hit it. Now, we’re flagging ahead of CPI.
As of now: Expect more range filling for now. Supports are at 5795 and 5780 (weak). If buyers hold them, 5805, 5812, and 5819 are upside targets. If 5780 fails, look for a dip to 5769-73.
S&P500 Consolidation almost over. Prepare for 6300 end of year.The S&P500 index (SPX) has been consolidating for roughly the past 3 weeks, significantly above its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which indicates that the long-term trend is not in danger. In fact, we believe that it has already entered a Channel Up structure, similar to November 2023 - March 2024.
As you can see, in late November 2023 the index was also consolidating way above its 1D MA50 after a strong recovery from a -10.90% correction. This time the consolidation is exactly at the top of the previous High while then it was exactly below it.
The 1D CCI sequences between the two fractals show that we are on the exact same position, posting bearish divergencies on the price's consolidation.
As a result, we expect a smooth Channel Up expansion towards the end of the year (quick exception the natural volatility around the U.S. elections day) and our Target is 6300, which is the 2.0 Fibonacci extension level.
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ES levels and targets for Oct 8thOvernight, ES showed very precise technicals, continuing to fill out the 5805-5740 range for the 3rd week now. Yesterday, the 5771 short idea went well, dropping all the way to 5734 area before recovering and rallying.
As of now: 5762-60 (weak) and 5751-46 are support levels. As long as buyers hold, 5773 and 5783+ are in play.
SPX6900 ($SPX) Soar Over 35% Amid LBank Listing & Whale ActivityThe meme token SPX6900 ( SP:SPX ) has been on an absolute tear, skyrocketing over 35% in the last 24 hours and achieving a remarkable 5000% gain over the past 30 days. As of today, SP:SPX is trading at $0.507, with a market capitalization of $472 million, positioning it as one of the most talked-about tokens in the meme coin space. So, what’s fueling this explosive growth?
Key Drivers Behind SPX6900’s Surge
1. New Listing on LBank
The most significant catalyst for SPX6900’s recent price surge is its new listing on LBank, one of the leading cryptocurrency exchanges. Trading for SPX/USDT began on October 8, 2024**, in the **MEME Zone** at 07:00 UTC, while deposits opened an hour earlier at 06:00 UTC. Withdrawals will become available on October 9. This listing has generated widespread excitement among traders, driving significant demand and pushing the token’s price higher.
2. Whale Activity
Whale involvement has played a pivotal role in boosting SPX6900’s momentum. Onchain Lens recently reported that a whale wallet linked to "chartrapist.eth", a well-known figure in the crypto community, made a bold move by swapping $1.88 million USDC for 4.29 million SPX at an average price of $0.437. Such a substantial buy-in by a whale signals strong confidence from major players, attracting further attention to SPX.
What Is SPX6900?
SPX6900, which was launched just over a year ago, is a meme token with a unique ambition. Unlike traditional meme coins, SP:SPX aims to position itself as an index for meme coins, similar to how the S&P 500 serves as a barometer for the stock market. This innovative concept has resonated with the crypto community, helping SP:SPX garner a growing base of holders and driving its meteoric rise in recent weeks.
Holder Count Surge
The rapid growth of SPX6900’s holder base is another key indicator of its rising popularity. On September 9, 2024, the token had just **4,729 holders**. As of today, that number has almost doubled to 9,406 holders, highlighting the incredible level of interest in the project. This surge in the holder count reflects a strengthening community and growing demand for the token.
Technical Outlook
From a technical perspective, SPX6900 is currently exhibiting strong bullish momentum. The token has broken key resistance levels and is now trading well above its all-time low of $0.0033, which it hit early in its existence. SPX is now at $0.507, continuing its relentless march upward after reaching a high of $0.52.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is sitting at 63, indicating that while the token is nearing overbought territory, it still has room to grow. SP:SPX is also trading above key moving averages, a bullish reversal pattern that suggests the token may continue its upward trajectory. The sustained price action and technical signals point to further gains ahead, especially if the token can break above its recent high and hold those levels.
Strength and Market Sentiment
The combination of SPX’s strong whale activity, the excitement around its LBank listing, and the unique concept of becoming a meme coin index has propelled the token into the spotlight. Meme coins often rely heavily on community sentiment and viral momentum, and SPX6900 is no exception. The positive sentiment surrounding the token has been a major driving force behind its recent success.
However, it’s important to note that while SPX6900 ( SP:SPX ) has seen explosive gains, the meme coin space is notoriously volatile. Prices can swing dramatically in either direction based on market sentiment, whale activity, or news events. Investors are advised to proceed with caution, as the rapid price movement could result in sharp pullbacks.
Conclusion: A Meme Coin to Watch
SPX6900 ( SP:SPX ) has made an impressive mark on the crypto world, with its unique ambition to act as an index for meme coins, a growing holder base, and substantial whale backing. The token’s recent surge, fueled by its LBank listing and major buy-ins from whales, has put it on the radar of both retail investors and institutional players alike.
While the technical outlook remains bullish, and the fundamental factors driving SPX6900’s rise are strong, investors should approach with a measured level of caution. Meme coins can be extremely volatile, and despite the recent gains, market conditions can shift quickly. Those looking to invest should conduct thorough research and be prepared for the potential risks associated with meme coin trading.
For now, SPX6900 ( SP:SPX ) is riding high on a wave of excitement, and it remains one of the most promising meme coins in the market. Whether it can sustain this momentum in the long term will depend on its ability to continue attracting new holders, maintaining whale interest, and executing its vision of becoming the "S&P 500 of meme coins."
SPx / U.S. Jobs Data Sparks Rate Cut RethinkRates Rethink After Strong U.S. Jobs Data Could Disrupt Markets
The aftermath of unexpectedly robust U.S. employment figures could potentially upend various trades hinged on declining interest rates. Should this stronger-than-anticipated economic growth prompt a substantial reassessment of the Federal Reserve’s approach to cutting borrowing costs, investors may need to reconsider their positions significantly.
Technical Analysis:
The price is expected to consolidate within the range of 5732 and 5784 until a breakout occurs. A close below 5732 on the 1-hour or 4-hour chart is likely to trigger a decline towards 5708, with a further drop potentially reaching 5675.
Conversely, if a 4-hour candle closes above 5732, the price may advance to 5784, with stability above this level paving the way to 5840.
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 5732
Resistance Levels: 5749, 5784, 5820
Support Levels: 5708, 5675, 5643
Trend Outlook:
- Bearish below 5732
- Bullish above 5749
The key is whether it can rise above 5878.7-6119.3
Hello, traders.
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I think this is the first time I've written an idea for the SPX500USD futures chart.
I'll give you an example of how to actually use it using the parallel channel that I introduced.
No matter how good an indicator or chart tool is added, if you don't know how to use it, chart analysis can be done in the wrong direction, so it is recommended that you familiarize yourself with the core interpretation method and how to use it before using it.
There are many examples of how to draw a trend line or how to draw a parallel channel, so you need to study how to draw it.
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(SPX500USD 1M chart)
It is rising near the upper black line of the parallel channel.
Therefore, it is likely to face resistance near the black line and fall.
Accordingly, we need to check for support near 1 (5878.7) drawn with the right trend period Fibonacci Extension (Trend-Based Fib Extension) tool.
If it falls, we need to check if it can rise along the middle point (black dotted line) of the parallel channel.
However, since the section pointed to by the finger is an important support and resistance section, if it receives support near this section, it is highly likely that the upward trend will continue.
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The left trend period Fibonacci Extension (Trend-Based Fib Extension) is drawn as the first rising wave on the 12M chart.
The trend-based Fibonacci extension on the right is drawn as the last rising wave on the 1M chart.
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The section drawn as a square box corresponds to an important section among the Fibonacci ratios drawn on the chart, and when viewed as a parallel channel, it passes near the upper black line, so you can see that it corresponds to an important section.
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(1D chart)
Since it is a futures chart, it is right to explain it on a time frame chart that can actually be traded, but since an idea can become useless as soon as time passes after publishing it, I will explain it based on the 1D chart.
I think the most important trend in futures trading is the trend of the 1D chart.
Therefore, when trading in the opposite direction of the trend of the 1D chart, you need to respond quickly and briefly.
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A parallel channel was also drawn on the 1D chart.
The first point is designated as the point that is supported and rises from the middle point of the parallel channel drawn on the 12M chart, and the point that the finger points to is designated to draw the parallel channel.
The HA-MS indicator was used to draw the support and resistance points.
However, as shown in the chart above, the HA-MS indicator may be distracting when viewing the chart, so I am explaining it by disabling it.
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The key is whether the price can be maintained by rising above 5741.6.
The 5741.6 point is the HA-High indicator point on the 1D chart, meaning that anything above this point is in the high range.
Since the StochRSI indicator is currently in the oversold range, it is more likely to lead to an additional decline.
Therefore, if the price falls, the key is whether it can be supported near the middle point of the parallel channel on the 1D chart, which is the section indicated by the circle.
That said, I don't think it's a good idea to enter a sell (SHORT) position right now.
The reason is that the StochRSI indicator is in the oversold section.
Therefore, if you want to trade with a sell (SHORT) position through scalping and day trading, you need to respond quickly and quickly.
Although the StochRSI indicator has entered the oversold section, the BW indicator is still rising.
Therefore, you should consider that there is a high possibility of a fake or sweep that pretends to fall.
Therefore, in order to make a big profit with a sell (SHORT) position, the BW indicator should be in a horizontal line at the highest point (100) and the StochRSI indicator should be falling in the overbought section.
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Have a nice time.
Thank you.
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2024-10-07 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Indexes - Bears stuffed the bullish price action from Friday with a decent bear bar closing on it’s low. Markets continue in their respective trading ranges near the highs and the daily ema have held again. If bears can generate follow through selling tomorrow, the highs could be in for now and we could see a deeper pullback.
sp500 e-mini futures
comment: 5750 - 5800 is my neutral range (written in my weekly update) and bears managed to get 5734 but could not close below the daily 20ema. To take control of the market, bears need follow through tomorrow below 5720 and a close below 5700 would be good for them. If they fail, bulls will buy it and we continue inside the range.
current market cycle: nested bull wedges
key levels : 5700 - 5850
bull case: Bulls have to stay above the daily 20ema or lose control, that’s their target for tomorrow. Since market is trading below the 1h 20ema, we will probably go more sideways during Globex and EU session before we see a bigger impulse again. Bulls still have the lower wedge bull trend line around 5700 and that would be their last stand before bears can take control and push this much lower again. Odds favor the bulls to stay above 5690 until we tested the trend line more than once. They rarely break on the second/third hit.
Invalidation is below 5690.
bear case: Bears want to trade below the daily ema and test the bull trend line around 5690-5700. We have spent enough time at the highs and a new impulse is around the corner. As of now I have no opinion where we might break out to. Bears can also make the case for a head & shoulders top and a measured move down would bring us to almost exactly the 50% pullback of the recent bull trend (5638ish). Coincidences eh.
Invalidation is above 5850.
short term: Neutral at the daily 20ema. It’s more reasonable to expect more sideways instead of a breakout. When it happens, watch for follow through before you join the trend.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-22: Very much like my outlook in dax. Trading range on the daily chart and we are at the highs. We could make higher ones or not. Does not matter much. I expect at least 5300 to be hit again in 2024.
current swing trade: Nope
trade of the day : Globex was bearish enough and once market traded below the 1h 20ema, it could not stay above it for long. Overall I’d say it was a tricky day. Shorting inside the trading range bar 30 - 45 was not a good trade since market just went up and down inside the tight range. Bears showed some strength with bars 45 and 47. Can you then reliably short on bar 50? I doubt it. To weak of a signal and you have the bar 18 low, so you would be shorting low in a potential trading range. Bar 53 was even worse to short, since it was a perfect double bottom with bar 18. Bar 54 was the bar that surely made the market always-in-short and 55 was the give up bar but then market printed one more strong bear bar and reversed for 11 points, trapping late bears.