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SPX (S&P 500 Index)

Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for March 4, 2025 🔮🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍: 🇺🇸📈 Implementation of U.S. Tariffs 📈: Effective today, the United States has imposed a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico, and a 10% tariff on imports from China. These measures aim to address trade imbalances and protect domestic industries. ​ 🇺🇸🏛️ Presidential Address to Congress 🏛️: President Donald Trump is scheduled to deliver his first address to Congress since his re-election, where he is expected to discuss the newly implemented tariffs and their anticipated impact on the U.S. economy. ​ investopedia.com 📊 Key Data Releases 📊: 📅 Tuesday, March 4: 🏛️ Treasury Auctions 🏛️: 8-Week Bill Auction (6:00 AM ET): The U.S. Department of the Treasury will auction 8-week bills, providing insights into short-term government borrowing costs.​ 17-Week Bill Auction (10:00 AM ET): A 17-week bill auction will also take place, offering additional perspective on investor demand for U.S. debt instruments.​ 4-Week Bill Auction (10:00 AM ET): The Treasury will auction 4-week bills, contributing to the understanding of immediate-term borrowing conditions.​ ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult with a professional financial advisor before making investment decisions.⚠️​ 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
Bear Swing Ends, Bullish Setup Begins - Here's what's next...Bear Swing Ends, Bullish Setup Begins – Here’s What’s Next | SPX Market Analysis 03 Mar 2025 Last week’s bear swing trade wrapped up beautifully, moving from range highs to range lows, before Friday delivered the perfect reversal. Price tagged the lower Bollinger Band, turned with multiple bullish pulse bars, and gave us a classic V-shaped price action entry—the perfect signal to exit the last bear trades and start the bullish swing. Now, I’m targeting 6,000 and 6,140, with hedge/bear triggers set below the recent lows. Meanwhile, Trump just dropped a bombshell over the weekend, hinting at a U.S. crypto reserve backed by five tokens. Could this inject some extra spice into the markets this week? Let’s dive in. --- Deeper Dive Analysis: The bear swing from last week completed as expected, moving from the larger range highs to the range lows, where Friday delivered a clean reversal setup. 📌 The Trade Setup – The Bullish Turn is In Price tagged the lower Bollinger Band – a key reversal zone Multiple bullish pulse bars confirmed momentum shift A V-shaped price action entry signaled the start of the bullish swing Exited the last bear trades as the trend flipped 📌 Bullish Program & Market Structure Now targeting: Smaller range low from last week’s 30-min chart Major resistance at 6,000 and 6,140 Hedge/bear triggers set below recent lows to manage risk 📌 Market News – Trump’s Crypto Reserve Idea Over the weekend, Trump hinted at a U.S. crypto reserve backed by five tokens This could spark volatility as traders absorb the implications Will this push risk-on sentiment higher, or cause unexpected market shakeups? The bullish program is in full motion, and I’ll be watching how price reacts at key levels this week while keeping an eye on how the market digests the crypto reserve news. --- Fun Fact 📢 Did you know? In 2010, a Bitcoin developer bought two pizzas for 10,000 BTC, now worth over $500 million—marking the first recorded Bitcoin transaction for goods. 💡 The Lesson? Markets evolve fast, and what seems trivial today could be worth millions in the future. With Trump hinting at a U.S. crypto reserve, could we be at the start of another major shift in financial history?
SP:SPXLong
by MrPhilNewton
Weekly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for March 3 – March 7, 2025🔮 Weekly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for March 3 – March 7, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍: 🇺🇸📊 Anticipated U.S. Jobs Report 📊: The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the February employment report on Friday, March 7. Economists expect an increase of approximately 133,000 nonfarm payrolls, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4%. ​ 🇪🇺💶 ECB Interest Rate Decision 💶: The European Central Bank is scheduled to announce its monetary policy decision on Thursday, March 6. Markets anticipate a 0.25% rate cut, which would adjust the deposit facility rate to 2.5%. ​ 🇨🇳📈 China's Economic Targets 📈: During the National People's Congress, China is expected to set its economic growth target at around 5% for the year. The government may introduce measures to boost consumption and support growth amid global economic uncertainties. ​ 📊 Key Data Releases 📊: 📅 Monday, March 3: 🏭 ISM Manufacturing PMI (10:00 AM ET) 🏭: This index measures the health of the U.S. manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while below 50 signifies contraction.​ 📅 Wednesday, March 5: 🏢 ISM Services PMI (10:00 AM ET) 🏢: This index assesses the performance of the U.S. services sector, with readings above 50 indicating expansion.​ Trading Economics 📅 Thursday, March 6: 📉 Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET) 📉: Weekly data indicating the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits for the first time.​ 📦 Factory Orders (10:00 AM ET) 📦: This report details the dollar level of new orders for both durable and non-durable goods, providing insight into manufacturing demand.​ 📅 Friday, March 7: 👷‍♂️ Nonfarm Payrolls (8:30 AM ET) 👷‍♂️: A key indicator of employment trends, reflecting the number of jobs added or lost in the economy, excluding the farming sector.​ 📈 Unemployment Rate (8:30 AM ET) 📈: The percentage of the total workforce that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month.​ 💵 Average Hourly Earnings (8:30 AM ET) 💵: This metric indicates the month-over-month change in wages, providing insight into consumer income trends.​ ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult with a professional financial advisor before making investment decisions.⚠️​ 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPY
by TrendTao
Weekly plan: ESH2025NYSE:ES FUTURES 3/3/2025 6012>> 6056>>> 6083-93 Weekly pivot: 5970 , Now Trading @ 5957 5919>> 5878>>> 5828 CONTEXT: NYSE:ES closed Friday's session with massive spike to the upside. Now NYSE:ES is back inside the previous balance zone that extends to 214 points range with 6056 for half back, however we need to be cautious since daily chart still is One Time Framing Down (OTFD) which would end if NYSE:ES is able to recapture or trade above 5971, at that point we will need to redraw daily balance zone. @everyone
CME_MINI:ES1!
by dhjesus
SPX: break of long term trend-lineThe game of nerves could be one of descriptions of developments on the US equity markets during the previous week. It was a heavy week due to a significant drop in the value of the S&P 500 but also other US equity indexes. The index declined about 1% during the previous week, and 1,4% since the beginning of February. Friday brought back significant buyers, where the index managed to end the week at the level of 5.954. The lowest weekly level was at 5.840. Tech companies were trying to hold, however, the majority ended February in a negative territory. Tesla is one of the most hit companies, with a weekly loss of around 16%. Analysts are noting that this represents the highest weekly loss of TSLA since December 2022. Other large companies also had significant drop, where Nvidia lost around 10%, while Palantir was down by around 19%, after recently reaching the historically highest level. On the other hand, companies within the financial sector performed in a positive manner, rising 1,3% for the week. When looking at the daily chart of S&P 500, the major support line was clearly breached. This line connects historical lows from October 2023, August 2024 and January 2025. It has been clearly breached on Thursday, however, Friday trading session brought the index back toward this line, but this time from the down side. Whether Friday's positive sentiment will continue is to be seen on Monday. For the moment the US equity market is under strong influence of geopolitical topics and potential trade tariffs. In addition, it should be considered that NFP data will be published in a week ahead, which might influence some higher volatility.
SP:SPX
by XBTFX
Selling Premium Going into Costco EarningsGiven Costco’s historical tendency for minimal post-earnings stock movement, along with inflated IV in the options market, selling premium via a bear call spread is a high-probability, risk- managed strategy to profit from an expected IV crush and minimal price movement following earnings. Key Points Supporting the Thesis: 1. Historical Price Movement: Over the past 4 years, Costco’s stock has experienced an average post-earnings price movement of only 1.24%. The majority of moves have been within a modest range of -1% to +2%. This indicates that despite earnings announcements, the stock tends to remain within a predictable price range, minimizing the potential for significant directional price swings. 2. Implied Volatility and Overpricing of Options: Currently, the options market is pricing in a 4.6% move for Costco’s stock post-earnings. Given Costco’s historical price movement patterns, this is an overestimation of potential volatility. IV tends to collapse after earnings announcements. 3. Costco’s High Valuation: Costco is currently trading at a P/E ratio of 61, which is significantly higher than historical levels. This suggests that the stock is already expensive relative to its earnings potential, making it less likely to experience a massive upward movement after earnings. The high valuation also means that even strong earnings may not drive significant upside, further increasing the likelihood of a muted post-earnings reaction. 4. Earnings Catalysts and Market Behavior: Costco’s earnings reports historically have had limited impact on the stock’s price due to the company’s stable revenue and earnings growth. Investors have already priced in much of the growth potential, leading to minimal surprise reactions to earnings releases. The combination of low historical price movement and high IV makes this a prime environment for selling premium, as the likelihood of large moves is low, while option prices remain high.
NASDAQ:COST
by KevinBurrows
2
Hellena | SPX500 (4H): LONG to resistance area of 6140.Dear Colleagues, price has gone lower than I thought it would and now we need to redraw the waves. Apparently, the price has updated the minimum of wave “2”. Therefore, I believe that the price will soon continue the upward movement in wave “3” anyway. The “ABC” correction seems to be completed and the 5915 area served as support for the second time. I expect the price to touch this area once again and then continue to the resistance area of 6140. Or it will immediately start moving towards this area. Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by Hellena_Trade
14
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for 2.28.2025 🔮 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍: 🇺🇸📈 PCE Inflation Data Release 📈: The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, is set to be released. Economists predict a 0.3% rise in January and a 2.5% year-over-year growth. This data will provide insights into inflation trends and potential monetary policy adjustments. 🇺🇸🛒 Consumer Spending Trends 🛒: Personal income and spending data for January will be released, offering a glimpse into consumer behavior amid ongoing economic uncertainties. Analysts anticipate a 0.4% increase in personal income and a 0.1% rise in personal spending. 📊 Key Data Releases 📊: 📅 Friday, Feb 28: 💰 Personal Income and Outlays (8:30 AM ET) 💰: Reports on personal income, consumer spending, and the PCE Price Index for January. 🏠 Pending Home Sales Index (10:00 AM ET) 🏠: Measures housing contract activity, providing insights into the real estate market's health. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #tomorrow #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
5
S&P500, US GDP grew by 2.3% in Q4 The U.S. GDP grew by 2.3% annually in Q4, confirming the initial estimate and meeting market expectations. S&P (US500) index pair price action sentiment appears bullish, supported by the longer-term prevailing uptrend. The recent intraday price action appears to be a sideways consolidation after a retest of an all-time high on 19th Feb ‘25. The key trading level is at the 5918 level, the consolidation price range and also the previous resistance is now a newly formed support zone. A corrective pullback from the current levels and a bullish bounce back from the 5918 level could target the upside resistance at 6018 followed by the 6060 and 6106 levels over the longer timeframe. Alternatively, a confirmed loss of the 5918 support and a daily close below that level would negate the bullish outlook opening the way for a further retracement and a retest of 5866 support level followed by 5827 and 5777. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
TRADENATION:US500
by TradeNation
NVDA XABCD Best Level to BUY/HOLD 30% gains🔸Hello traders, today let's review recent price chart for NVDA. Well defined swings in progress, expecting further downside before the tide finally turns for NVDA bulls. Currently it's recommended to stay out. 🔸Speculative XABCD defined by points: X 150, A 115, B 140, C 120, D 160. most points validated already, C/D pending. 🔸Well defined swings in progress, so expecting a low near 120 before reversal and new swing higher. 🔸Recommended strategy bulls: Bulls wait for correction to complete at/near 129 usd in March 2025 and get ready to BUY/HOLD low, this is a swing trade setup, so will take longer to hit target, patience required. final TP is 160 USD, 30% upside from point C/buy entry. good luck traders! 🎁Please hit the like button and 🎁Leave a comment to support our team! RISK DISCLAIMER: Trading Futures , Forex, CFDs and Stocks involves a risk of loss. Please consider carefully if such trading is appropriate for you. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always limit your leverage and use tight stop loss.
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by ProjectSyndicate
27
S&P500 - The 2025 Bullrun Just Started!S&P500 ( TVC:SPX ) will rally massively during 2025: Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻 Over the past couple of years, the S&P500 has perfectly been respecting the trendlines of a rising channel formation. After the recent rally of +70%, it is quite likely that - following the 2020 cycle - we will see another final rally of about +20% before the S&P500 will correct itself. Levels to watch: $7.000 Keep your long term vision, Philip (BasicTrading)
TVC:SPXLong
by basictradingtv
15
$SPY $SPX Pullback to Gap Fill? I've been waiting for a rocket to AMEX:SPY $630 but my monthly tells me that February wants to close red. Here is my daily with a fib that we cant seem to hold above although today we did close above once I have been waiting patiently in this box unlike others, I have constantly reiterated, don't try to be a hero inside of the box. Now that the Box seems to be pushing towards the upside, I can't help but notice we continue printing bearish candles regardless of direction. Today we closed with a Hangman, which begs the question, could we perhaps lean bearish for two of the most bearish weeks of the year in comparison? I'd like to think I'm not wrong here and we will get a spill before anyone gets an expected blow off top. Be careful out there, volatility remains present and the VIX was above the 50DMA last time I checked. If we can get this gap fill and start moving back up, I will be confident in the gap fill being bottom. Seeing as $593 AMEX:SPY alert for bottom never filled, I will have to assume it's still a possibility. Taz out.
SP:SPX
by TazmanianTrader
Combined US Indexes - Incoming Break or Bounce ?From the previously marked timeline on 18 Feb 2025, just days later, you see the combined US Indexes plummet to cut through the middle decision box (purple), and extrude out below. This formed the double top second peak in essence, and the days following just closed at a two month low. While this might appear Bearish, it is worth noting the lower tails in previous candles which are followed by rallies to the upper resistance. Would this happen the third time? I would beg to differ... In fact, marked out is a critical support point which should be tested in early March. At that point (yellow ellipse), there is a confluence of a previous trend change support, the current TDST and just below that the larger consolidation range support. While the RoVD is slightly bullish, the MACD is dipping with MACD in bearish lower half, and the signal line tapering down towards the boundary into bear territory. In summary, it looks slightly bearish to the critical support point. From there, it would be good to see if it bounces or it breaks down.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Auguraltrader
SPX Targets Being Hit - More Downside Ahead?SPX & NDX Targets Hit – But More Downside Ahead? | SPX Market Analysis 26 Feb 2025 Is the bear move done, or do we have more downside left? Honestly, who cares when you have a solid process? The bear swing is rolling along nicely, with the first SPX and NDX tranches hitting profit targets. For now, price action is still making lower highs and lower lows, so I’m staying in the bear camp a little longer. But before I think about flipping to bullish trades, I want to see price climb above 5970 and start forming a V-pattern back into the prior range. That said, new trades will be on pause for a few days because my lovely wife has surprised me with a trip to The Lakes! A bit of fresh air, hiking, and spotty internet means I’ll be taking a conservative approach for the rest of the week—but that doesn’t mean I won’t be keeping an eye on things. Let’s break it down. --- Deeper Dive Analysis: The bear swing remains in play, and first targets have been cashed out on both SPX and NDX income swings. Right now, price action continues to show lower highs and lower lows, which keeps me leaning bearish. 📌 Key Market Levels: ✅ SPX breakout target: 5820 – still room for downside ✅ NDX has surpassed multiple breakout targets we discussed in our Fast Forward Mentoring ✅ VIX remains under 20, suggesting no major crash yet, but continued selling is possible For me to flip bullish, I’d want to see: 📌 SPX reclaiming 5970+ 📌 A V-pattern developing back into the prior range 📌 Confirmation that downside momentum is slowing Another reason I’m not rushing into new positions—aside from waiting for confirmation—is that I’ll be in and out of internet connection this week thanks to my wife’s surprise hiking trip to The Lakes! That means I’ll be keeping a more conservative approach, locking in profits where I can and not forcing any trades while I’m away. For now, the plan stays the same: ride the bear swing, cash out at targets, and wait for the next confirmed move before flipping bullish. --- Fun Fact 📢 Did you know? In 2008, Volkswagen briefly became the most valuable company in the world when a short squeeze sent its stock price soaring 400% in just two days—forcing hedge funds to take billions in losses. 💡 The Lesson? Just because a stock (or market) is moving down doesn’t mean it won’t snap violently back up. That’s why having a trade plan is critical—so you’re never caught off guard.
USI:ADDShort
by MrPhilNewton
S&P500 Channel Up bottomed. Huge reversal expected.The S&P500 index (SPX) had been trading within a Channel Up pattern since the August 2024 Low and yesterday broke below its 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time in 20 days. Since January 17, every such break below the 4H MA200 has been a technical buy opportunity. This time it is even stronger as the index appears to be replicating the Channel's first price structure and more specifically Leg (d). What followed after Leg (d) bottomed, was a symmetrical with (b)-(c) +7.05% rise to form a top at (e). The confirmation for this rise came when the 4H MACD formed a Bullish Cross. As a result, we are waiting for this confirmation to continue with additional buying on S&P and target 6330, which would be a +6.22% rise, symmetrical with (b)-(c). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TRADENATION:US500Long
by TradingShot
Two Possible Trades - Which one will trigger?Two Possible Trades – Which One Will Trigger? | SPX Market Analysis 25 Feb 2025 Monday came in swinging, continuing Friday’s move and landing price right at the range low target. And what do we get? A beautiful V-shaped reaction—just like we discussed in detail during our Fast Forward mentoring call. Now we have two key scenarios unfolding, mirroring what we saw at the upper boundary of the range during the bullish breakout setup. Will we get a bullish turn, or will the market break down? Triggers are set, charts are marked—now we wait. --- Deeper Dive Analysis: Monday continued Friday’s momentum, taking price straight into the range low target, where we saw a classic V-shaped price reaction. While no pulse bars have appeared yet, the location of this reaction is ideal, lining up perfectly with our 6 money-making patterns. This gives us two possible trade setups, similar to what we saw at the upper range boundary during the last breakout assessment. Scenario 1 – The Bullish Turn ✅ V-shaped reaction at a key level ✅ If confirmed, we could see a move back up into the range ✅ Waiting for additional confirmation (pulse bars, momentum shift, etc.) Scenario 2 – The Bearish Breakout ✅ If price breaks below the range low, it confirms a downside move ✅ A clean breakdown could lead to a continuation of bearish momentum ✅ This would be a mirror setup of the bullish breakout from earlier Right now, both triggers are marked up on the charts, waiting for price to confirm the next move. Until then, it’s a watch-and-wait game, keeping an eye on any momentum shifts or additional signals. --- Fun Fact Did You Know the phrase “buy the rumour, sell the news” originated in the 18th century? It was coined to describe the sharp market moves surrounding Napoleon’s defeat at Waterloo. Traders in the know made fortunes buying ahead of the news and selling into the ensuing hype! The phrase became famous when financier Nathan Rothschild supposedly capitalised on early news of Napoleon's defeat in 1815. He bought up British government bonds while others panicked and sold. Once the victory became public, prices soared, making Rothschild a fortune. It’s a timeless reminder to think ahead in the markets.
SP:SPX
by MrPhilNewton