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SPX (S&P 500 Index)

SPx - Fed Rate Cut Expectations Rise as Key Economic Data AwaitsS&P 500 Technical Analysis: The price is currently trading below the pivot level of 5454, with a potential downside target of 5412. However, the price remains in a consolidation phase between 5456 and 5412 until a breakout occurs. A sustained move above 5454 would likely support a rise towards 5490 and potentially 5526. Conversely, maintaining a position below 5454 would increase the likelihood of a move down to 5412. Key Levels: Pivot Point: 5454 Resistance Levels: 5490, 5526, 5573 Support Levels: 5412, 5460, 5328 Expected Trading Range: 5471 - 5412 Trend: Short-term downtrend ----------------- Monetary Policy Shift Anticipated Amid Key Economic Releases With the economy in balance and inflation trending toward the 2% target, it is now seen as appropriate to reduce the degree of policy restrictiveness by lowering the target range for the federal funds rate. Currently, U.S. rate futures indicate a 75% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut and a 25% chance of a 50 basis point cut at the upcoming Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting. In the coming week, the spotlight will be on the U.S. consumer inflation report for August. Additionally, market participants will closely monitor other key economic indicators, including the U.S. PPI, Core PPI, Crude Oil Inventories, Initial Jobless Claims, Export Price Index, Import Price Index, and the preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by SroshMayi
Build Confidence with Heikin-Ashi Candle Patternow to Trade Using Heikin Ashi Candles on the NDX Chart Heikin Ashi candles are a powerful tool for filtering out market noise and identifying trends more clearly than traditional candlesticks. By smoothing out price action, they allow traders to focus on the overall direction of the market, helping you make more informed trading decisions. Here’s a breakdown of how to use Heikin Ashi candles effectively, specifically on the NDX chart. 1. How to Read Heikin Ashi Candles The primary difference between Heikin Ashi and traditional candlesticks is in how they are calculated. Heikin Ashi uses a modified formula that incorporates the open, close, high, and low prices of the previous candle, which results in a smoother appearance. This smoothing effect allows traders to more easily spot trends: Bullish Trends: A series of green candles with no lower wicks typically indicates a strong uptrend. These are the times to consider long trades. Bearish Trends: A series of red candles with no upper wicks signals a strong downtrend. These are great opportunities for short positions. Consolidation: Mixed green and red candles with wicks on both ends often indicate consolidation or indecision in the market. The Heikin Ashi chart reduces the noise from minor price fluctuations, allowing you to focus on the trend itself rather than the short-term volatility. 2. Entry and Exit Points The beauty of Heikin Ashi candles lies in their ability to simplify entries and exits. Here’s how to use them: Entry Points: You want to enter a trade when a new trend is confirmed. For a long position, wait for the first few green Heikin Ashi candles after a period of red ones, signaling a reversal to the upside. For a short position, look for a sequence of red candles after a bullish period has ended. Exit Points: Exit your trade when you start seeing signs of reversal. For long trades, this would be the appearance of the first red Heikin Ashi candle after a series of green ones. For short trades, exit when the first green candle appears after a bearish sequence. Waiting for these clear signals helps avoid premature exits and ensures that you’re riding the trend for as long as possible. 3. Key Support and Resistance Levels Heikin Ashi works even better when combined with key support and resistance levels. On the NDX chart, identifying these levels provides context for your trades: Support Levels: If the price is approaching a key support level, and you start to see bullish Heikin Ashi candles, it’s a potential buy signal. Resistance Levels: If the price is approaching resistance and bearish Heikin Ashi candles begin forming, that could signal a good time to sell or short. Using Heikin Ashi in conjunction with these levels increases the probability of success by ensuring you are trading within important zones where price action tends to react. By mastering the use of Heikin Ashi candles and combining them with support and resistance, you can significantly improve your ability to spot and act on high-probability trading opportunities, especially on volatile instruments like NDX.
AMEX:SPYEducation
by Deno_Trading
#202437 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500 e-mini futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr sp500: Full bear mode. Market closes exactly at the 50% pullback price 5420 and we could see some sideways movement before more downside. Any pullback should stay below 5535. 0 Doubt in my mind that we see 5000 in 2024. Quote from last week: comment : Are we that much smarter than last Sunday after past week’s price action? I don’t think so. Still a lower high. Bulls closed the month extremely bullish but we are at previous resistance. Can’t be anything but neutral. Clear invalidation prices though. Above 5670 it’s bullish for ath retest 5721 or higher high. Below 5550 bears can generate momentum and convince bulls this was just a climactic retest of the highs and we go down again. Bulls still do have better arguments than the bears as long as they stay above the daily ema at 5565. comment : Strong bearish momentum is what we got with the bearish engulfing candle on Monday and market never looked back. 50% pullback is almost exactly at Friday’s close and if we get a pullback before 5200, it will be here. What are the chances? No idea, so every time that is so, it’s 50/50. Absolutely favoring the bears to continue down to 5200, with or without pullback. So if we get one, I will load on swing shorts. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 5000-5700 bull case: Bulls best chance for a pullback is right here at 5420 which is the 50% retracement and close to the weekly 20ema. I do not think after a 10%+ rally, that they will fight the bears to keep it above 5400. Market is erratic to say the least. Best bulls can hope for on Monday is sideways movement and stopping the bears from printing lower lows. Invalidation is below 5390. bear case: Bears stepped aside completely on the move up but came back big time on Monday. Why did they short it on Monday? That is never important and ever a question you should try to answer because you simply can not and will not know. Ever. That is the inherent beauty of the markets if they are big enough. Too many participants to determine such useless thoughts. The height of the bars tells you that there is very strong selling going on because people want out. Invalidation is above 5540. outlook last week: short term: Neutral again. No interest in bigger buying above 5600. Will scalp long if bulls make it clear that they want a new ath but mostly looking for signs of bear strength over the next week. Bulls closed above 5660 so it’s a buy signal going into next week but my outlook has not changed. I wait for bears to come around and will only scalp longs. → Last Sunday we traded 5661 and now we are at 5419. I let you decide the value of the given outlook last Sunday. short term: Full bear mode and yet we could get a 100+ point pullback. So shorting 5419 is not advisable as of now. Wait for bears to come around again. If bulls can get to 5500 again, look for a reversal and then you could load up on shorts. I do think it’s more likely that we will make high lows instead of lower lows and form a triangle. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01: Very much like my outlook in dax. Trading range on the daily chart and we are at the highs. We could make higher ones or not. Does not matter much. I expect 5000 to be hit again in 2024. current swing trade: None. chart update: Big ABC correction was good so far. Let’s see how low we can go.
CME_MINI:MES1!Short
by priceactiontds
Nasdaq already in a Bear Market Hello everyone, We are currently in a topping process and chances are July 10, 2024 was the top for the Nasdaq (NDX). I believe that we will fill the gap before entering the bear market. A confirmation of a lower high on NDX and a higher high on SPX would show a clear divergence confirming a market top. It's clear that the Russell (IWM) is not making new highs and showing a clear divergence from SPX and NDX making new highs suggesting this is the top. NDX may have already entered a bear market and will not be making new highs and this is simply an ABC corrective wave up before making new lows. TLDR: NDX ABC CORRECTIVE WAVE UP BEFORE NEW LOWS; NDX WILL MAKE LOWER HIGHS AND SPX NEW HIGHS WILL CONFIRM THIS A MARKET TOP
NASDAQ:NDX
by justaturboman44
4
SPX: A Double Top at the peak could lead to a short-term fall! The chart depicts a steady upward trend of the index. After reaching an all-time high close to the 5,670 level, the index saw a significant decline, dropped by nearly 550 points. However, after a recovery, the index once again neared its previous high, but experienced another setback. The emergence of a Double Top pattern, along with a clear RSI divergence, indicates that the index may face difficulties in the near future. On the downside, immediate support is found between the 5,250 and 5,300 levels. A break below this support could lead to a considerable drop in the index.
SP:SPXShort
by NaranjCapital
Roaring 20s, Roaring 20s Paralleled 100 Year Event. Roaring 20s, Roaring 20s Paralleled 100 Year Event. During 1920s - 1930s we experienced a "pandemic event" in both scenarios *odd*. It created a shock crash followed by a pandemic rebound that the masses called "bubble" this is where valuations broke due to a black swan event. We use the SMA 2D (200) that shows the larger trend of the market and we see similarities of this "bubble" crash bounce in 1922-1924, oddly similar to 2022-2024 right?. What's even more dangerous about today is the market in the roaring 20s was held back by the Gold dollar peg, today? we don't even have that. We just have interest rates. Following the 1924 situation the New York FED cut funding rates to avoid a "unemployment crisis" and it began the fueling of the final stage of a major bubble. Differences? during the pandemic in the 2020s Governments forced central banks to print trillions and trillions and enforce lock downs to stop the circulation of the currency. Following this they then raised interest rates globally sucking capital back into "bills" "Money Market Funds". What happens next?, the FRED will cut interest rates aggressively to avoid unemployment spiking trying to front run the future and in return these rates being lowered will rally bonds and release capital and new leverage back onto the market based on the debasement of QE we experienced. Yes the QE during the pandemic barely touched the markets where people were calling 2022 a "bubble". SPX/USM2 has broken out of a major trend while the FRED aggressively raised interest rates indicating this new "trend" cannot be contained without raising rates higher and its impossible to do so with the Government debt interest. A new bubble fueled by "Artificial Intelligence, Bitcoin, Electric Cars, Robotics, Biotechnology" could be rivalling the "automobile, radio, and electricity" fuel of the 1920s. The big question is does it end in a giant crash without a depression? and the answer will ultimately be how well the leveraged is contained in the later stages of the market.
TVC:DJILong
by SatoshiInsight
DIA $392 PT Sep '24 (Repost)Reposting my DIA $392 target price for September (my previous chart was too messy). It's been in a very consistent channel all of 2024. This means SPY should continue lower towards the $500 level through this week. We will need to see DIA hold the $392 level and SPY to stay above $500, which I think is very likely the case as we go into rate cuts 9/18. The rate cut on 9/18 will very likely add much needed boost to equities to go back to highs before a full on market crash.
AMEX:DIAShort
by ARX713
US Jobs Disappoint - Inflation on DeckThe "September Effect" is in full bloom as the markets are down 4-5% from September's first trading week. 10 year average for September is -.9% 70 year average for September is -.7% We may see high volatility all over again with Aug 5 lows being threatened, or we may see the risk off tone has been front loaded and next week is all about inflation with US CPI/PPI to potentially fend off more selling with improvements in the inflation trends (e.g. lower inflation = better for market sentiment). This video is a bit longer, but I appreciate you checking it out and watching. Once we're through inflation news, it's all about the FED on Sep 18, then more employment/inflation news, then election. Those are major catalysts to posture us for the remainder of the year. Long-term investors the game is simple Short-term investors are all over the place Profits and Losses happen, just don't do anything silly. Enjoy the weekend!!!
NASDAQ:TLT
by ChrisPulver
3
E.L.E.2Just another day at the office... Plotting the SPX median line shows something quite ordinary. No problem is apparent. All is well in the financial markets. Classic candle charts hide the truth, as I have many times explained. SPX now prints a bear 2M bar on the 3-line-break chart. This simply means that a bearish engulfing has taken place on a significantly large timeframe. These things come up rarely. They must not be ignored. ... Extinction Level Event 2 On the main chart we see a massive RSI divergence taking shape. Coupled with a massive bearish engulfing, fear is beginning to hit. Too much has accumulated in Big Tech. (Notice the bull confirmation) SPX Democracy is at a multi-year low. The XLK vs SPY ratio has reached the 2000 levels. (Notice the bear confirmation) The .com bubble burst is coming again. No big stock is safe from this event... MSFT META There is really no point showing more. If you get it, you get it. Mayday Mayday Mayday Brace for impact
SP:SPX
by akikostas
YENOCALYPSE. TO BE CONTINUE...The yen has posted several outsized moves in recent days, appreciating sharply on Thursday and Friday from 38-year lows of 161.96 per dollar, sudden rallies that market participants said had the signs of currency intervention. Bank of Japan data released on Tuesday suggested Tokyo may have spent 2.14 trillion yen ($13.5 billion) intervening on Friday. Combined with the estimated amount spent on Thursday, Japan is suspected to have bought nearly 6 trillion yen via intervention last week. In technical terms, USDJPY Fx pair has broken its major Bullish 7-months trend. What is next? I think retrace is possible.. But just to deliver much more to 152nd ground. // Mega stocks are in ruins..
by Pandorra
2
Is the S&P 500's Bull Run a Mirage?The S&P 500's recent all-time high has ignited a frenzy of optimism among investors. However, as the market reaches unprecedented heights, questions arise about the sustainability of this bull run and the potential risks lurking beneath the surface. While the allure of soaring stock prices is undeniable, investing in a market at its peak carries inherent risks. The concentration of returns within a few dominant stocks (such as Nvidia, Alphabet, and Amazon), coupled with the potential for geopolitical shocks and economic downturns, introduces significant uncertainty. The dot-com bubble serves as a stark reminder of the market's cyclical nature and the perils of overvaluation. To navigate this complex landscape, investors must adopt a balanced approach. Diversification, coupled with a keen understanding of economic indicators, geopolitical events, and corporate news, is essential for making informed decisions. By recognizing the potential pitfalls and taking proactive measures to mitigate risk, investors can position themselves for long-term success in the ever-evolving market. The S&P 500's future remains uncertain, but by approaching the bull market with a critical eye and a strategic mindset, investors can navigate the challenges and capitalize on the opportunities that lie ahead.
CBOE:SPXShort
by signalmastermind
My Full ES/SPX Plan for Tmmr Sept. 6thPlan for Friday: **Supports:** 5512, 5502, 5494 (major), 5482 (major), 5476, 5474 (major), 5462, 5455 (major), 5450, 5445 (major), 5438 (major), 5428, 5423, 5414 (major). **Levels to Bid:** - I am still holding my 10% long runner from the **5493** knife carch idea that played out this afternoon. I have added long exposure around **5513**, risking 25% of today’s profits. - We are currently in a new chop range between **5493 and 5554**, with **5519** acting as a key middle point. This has been tested 14 times since yesterday, so it’s no longer fresh but still worth watching for failed breakdowns as always. - **5494** is next major support below, though it’s risky to buy directly after today’s test, especially with the NFP report coming tomorrow morning. Ideally, I'd like to see it flush and recover, perhaps testing **5482** or **5474** before reclaiming for a safer entry. - Below **5492**, I consider this "knife catch mode," meaning supports will likely fail, so I’d be careful with longs, snd treat with smaller size than normal . However, **5455** and **5438** are key levels to watch for buy reactions if price starts flushing down aggressively. **Resistances:** 5519 (major), 5524, 5528-30 (major), 5537, 5543, 5554 (major), 5560, 5566, 5574, 5577, 5582-86 (major), 5593, 5598, 5605 (major). - With NFP tomorrow, we could see a violent rally, and I am not interested in shorting strength in ES. For those looking to short, **5582-86** is a logical spot, where we broke down earlier this week and have yet to backtest. **Buyers Case Tomorrow:** - Currently, ES has an active failed breakdown present. The key is for **5492** to hold, allowing buyers to defend this level and potentially reclaim **5519**. - The path forward for buyers would then be targeting **5528-30**, **5554**, and eventually **5582-86** for a dip and push toward **5630**. **Sellers Case Tomorrow:** - Begins with the failure of **5493**. As i mentioned often though, breakdown trades below this a support are tricky, advanced setups, as most breakdowns trap (80% fail), and these are low-win-rate, high-risk/reward trades. So keep that in mind. Properly reading volume is the key to these type of trades. - Generally, I’d want to see 5493 tested/one more failed breakdown of the zone (ideally down to 5483 that recovers). After this, I’d consider short perhaps 5486. Level to level profit takes, as always, but we likely get down to 5455. In general, We have gone nowhere for two days. My general lean is that 5493 and 5519 remain critical levels. As long as we can keep defending 5493, ES is still in relief bounce/squeeze mode. This would work us up the levels to 5528-30, 5554, then on to 5582-86. If 5492 fails, bulls dropped the ball on this and we need to take another leg down.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by ESMorg
Combined US Indexes - Warning Trend Change to DOWNFrom the last post, there was a Gap closure and breakout... well, almost. What happened was a stall after the gap closure. This is the first indication that something is not right and a strong resistance is in the way. After more than a week, a decisive down candle wiped out two prior days of bullish candles, and reopened the earlier gap. This by itself is very bearish... first on the candlestick pattern, and next on the reopening of the gap. MACD have crossed under the signal line, in support of the bearish undertone. Now, we wait for a full reopening of the gap, meaning a further breakdown of the supports. By simple projection, the down wave from mid July to August (blue arrow) is projected from the last lower high in mid-August. This brings the target to mid-September, at an old critical support level of 780. Oddly enough, am expecting this to happen by the end of next week.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Auguraltrader
FED Rate Cut Sept. 19: Market ImplicationsFed expected to cut rates ~0.5% on Sept. 19 Short-term outlook: • Likely market correction before/during the event • "Sell the news" expected • Traders may capitalize on retail investors' optimism around the FED rate cut Why? Historical patterns show corrections often precede rate cuts. this time might be no exception. FED rate cut market dynamics: • Institutional investors take profits around the rate cut • Potential liquidity squeeze as positions unwind • Volatility and TVC:VIX will increase Long-term: • Rate cuts generally bullish over time • Lower rates can stimulate economic growth • But full effects may take months to materialize Strategic considerations: • Market dip can be a buying opportunities • Consider index ETFs like SP:SPX and NASDAQ:QQQ and stocks with fundamentals or even Bitcoin. Personally, I will also add the leveraged ETFs AMEX:SSO and AMEX:QLD • Consider dollar-cost averaging during volatility Markets are complex. This analysis isn't financial advice. Always do thorough research and consider your risk tolerance.
SP:SPXShort
by HenriqueCentieiro
Bear Pressure Remains (Key Levels to Watch - SPX, NDX)Tuesday - Bear Candle breaking support Wednesday - weak re-test of the support (now becoming resistance) Bearish pressure remains firm with key levels lower on the major indexes. Near-term bearish until price proves otherwise. Taking stops, protecting profits and managing hedges. JPY "unwinding" is also back on the radar. I'll be watching the JPY strength and Nikkei correlation. I still hold long FXY through 2026 (call options) Thanks for watching!!!
SP:SPX
by ChrisPulver
2024-09-04 - priceactiontds - short daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Bearish bias confirmed. Bulls getting nervous by now. More bad data releases and markets are leaving bear gaps unclosed. Today we also made lower lows and the pullbacks were shallow. All good for the bears and the odds of another strong leg down and a measured move got higher today. sp500 e-mini futures comment : Many of the same arguments as for dax. Very strong leg down and bears want another one. Measured move target would be 5350-5370. Market closed 5 points above the open, so a big nothingburger but both sides made money today. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 5500 -5670 bull case: Bulls made money today if they were quick to take profits but the problem is, that the pullback was not high enough to seriously question the bear case. Bulls need to fight for 5500 or we get the second leg down. Same easy if-this-then-that scenario for most indexes. Invalidation is below 5490/5500. bear case: Bears confirmed the leg down with lower lows and a shallow pullback, which they sold again. They closed below the daily ema and also left a bear gap open, though a small one. First target below 5500 is 5420 which is the 50% pullback from the bull rally. Invalidation is above 5666. short term: Bearish. Below 5500 I become full bear again but can also see this going a bit more sideways. I do expect this week to close deep red and below 5500. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01: Very much like my outlook in dax. Trading range on the daily chart and we are at the highs. We could make higher ones or not. Does not matter much. I expect 5000 to be hit again in 2024. current swing trade: Nope and will only do on bigger swing short it will probably be dax. trade of the day : Very strong open and longs were good. After that it was so two sided and no obvious amazing trade. In hindsight it was an obvious short but not as it was happening imo. Market had strong two sided trading during news releases. After bar 11 close I expected market to close nearer to the open price and scalped some shorts.
CME_MINI:MES1!Short
by priceactiontds
SPX Analysis for Today: What’s Next After Yesterday’s Big Drop?Wow! Yesterday was brutal for us all on SPX with a major bearish move that probably left a lot of traders scratching their heads. So, what’s the game plan for today? Let’s break it down. 1. Technical Picture After the Drop Yesterday’s sell-off took SPX to key levels, and now we’re sitting in some interesting territory. The 5550-5570 range is what we’re watching closely—this could act as support, but if it cracks, we might be heading lower, potentially toward 5500. On the flip side, if buyers step in, we could see a bounce back toward 5550, which was previous support but might now act as resistance. Traders should keep an eye on whether we break out of that range or get rejected. 2. The News That Matters A lot of today’s action depends on what’s going on in the broader world. Are we getting any new data on inflation or jobs? If inflation numbers come in hot, the market could get nervous again, anticipating more rate hikes from the Fed. But if the data is lighter, we might get a relief rally after yesterday’s beatdown. Also, keep an eye on any big headlines—geopolitical tension, tech earnings, or even Fed commentary. All of these could be wildcards that drive sentiment today. 3. Sentiment Check We’ve got VIX (the fear gauge) pretty elevated right now, so people are still pretty nervous. Watch for whether that calms down today—if it does, we might get some relief in SPX. But if VIX stays high or climbs further, brace yourselves for more volatility. The Bottom Line: If today’s news stokes more fear, we could see another push lower. But if the market takes a breather, we might get a short-term bounce. Either way, buckle up—it’s going to be another interesting session!
SP:SPX
by Deno_Trading
2024-09-03 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Huge bear surprise today. The strength of the selling was absolutely unexpected. Bulls closed August at the very high and had all the arguments to print new ath but as of now, this selling is different and new highs are now very unlikely. Most daily charts printed a huge outside down bar, closing at the lows and below the daily ema. If bears get follow through tomorrow, they have taken control of the market and we might take the elevator down again. sp500 e-mini futures Here is the quote from my weekly update: bear case: Bears see it as a big trading range and we are at the highs again. They start scaling into shorts above 5600. Same observation as last week. Until bears print consecutive daily bear bars or stronger 1h bars below 5650, bulls remain in control. If bears somehow manage to print a bigger engulfing bear bar on the daily chart, especially if it closes below 5600, that would probably be enough to make many more bulls exiting their longs. Interesting week ahead of us. comment : Market went only down today and did not touch the 15m ema, so it only makes sense to talk about the daily chart. Bears did exactly what they needed to do in order to make more bulls take profits. Now comes the most important part. If they let the bulls have a bigger pullback, this might go above 5650 again but if it stays below 5600 and we print 5490, that would certainly hit the last stops and could accelerate this down hard. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 5500 -5670 bull case: Bulls are running for the exits. They want to secure the profits from the insane reversal over the last weeks. I expect many more stops around 5490 and bulls need to prevent the market from getting there. Bulls have the slight hope this was an early sell climax with a bear trap below the daily ema and the expanding triangle. If they can get above 5600 again, their case is valid and we could get back above 5640 again. Invalidation is below 5490/5500. bear case: Bears have all arguments on their side, if they keep the pullback shallow and print below 5500 tomorrow. Seasonality is on their side this month and since the market is in a very volatile state, it’s possible to see 5000 this month. The first bigger target for the bears is obviously every round number, so 5500 but I do think 5400-5420 is the real target because that is the 50% pb from the recent bull rally. I will look to see if the 1h ema will hold tomorrow. Max bearishness would be to go sideways between 5500-5560 until bears want the bigger second leg down. Invalidation is above 5660. short term: Bearish but I expect a pullback before another leg down. Need to see how strong bulls are tomorrow. First bigger target for the bears is 5400. medium-long term: Very much like my outlook in dax. Trading range on the daily chart and we are at the highs. We could make higher ones or not. Does not matter much. I expect 5000 to be hit again in 2024. current swing trade: Nope. trade of the day: Sell anywhere and hold. Sounds a lot easier than it is but those are the hard facts. If you struggle to do that, you need to come up with strategies to force yourself to swing part of your position and not close until a clear signal appears. Today had no signal to exit shorts.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds