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SPX (S&P 500 Index)

SPX Is Bearish! Short! Here is our detailed technical review for SPX. Time Frame: 1D Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The market is approaching a key horizontal level 5,647.50. Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 5,385.34. P.S Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
SP:SPXShort
by SignalProvider
1
S&P500 The Bull Cycle is still far from over!Six months ago while the market was undecided about whether or not the S&P500 (SPX) rally would continue, we presented a very useful multi-year chart on the 1M time-frame (February 27, see chart below), where we called for an extension of the uptrend, claiming confidently that the 'Bull Cycle is far from over': As you can see those who bought without fear have enjoyed so far more than +15% gains. What's even more impressive is the massive bullish reversal of the August candle, that managed to close the month in green, despite the early aggressive sell-off. This is a strong sign that the rally is far from over, but it's not the only one. The key here, and constitutes our main modification relative to the chart 6 months ago, is that the most accurate sell signal on a cyclical basis has been historically given after the 1M RSI breaks above the 70.00 overbought barrier and posts Lower Highs. This signal has had 100% accuracy in the past 10 years, effectively projecting the 2015, 2018 and 2022 corrections. The 1M RSI also has a Channel Down Resistance to consider but the Lower Highs signal should be top priority for investors to start selling. As a result, we expect the index to surpass the 6000 mark and even approach 6500, before we consider a cyclical selling sequence again. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:SPXLong
by TradingShot
5
September Effect - Up/Down/Sideways - How I'm Trading ItSummer trading is officially done and the market will be news sensitive leading up to the big bad FOMC Rate Decision on September 18. August's monthly candle is a wild one with a massive wick to the south and the bulls pushed the SPY within a whisker of all-time highs, Dow to several all-time highs, Nasdaq into a nice bullish recovery posture, and Russell the same (higher lows). 6 Central Bank Rate Decisions in September US News on Employment and Inflation all rolling out before the FOMC I'd like to see a seasonal dip or pullback to offer more accumulation opportunities before a run higher. Let's see how it plays out.
NASDAQ:NDX
by ChrisPulver
2
Stock feedback loopStock market is a adaptive system or a stock, with feedback loops (for inflow, outflow function). Where nobody knows the outcome or future, but feedbacks (corrections or resistance) gives tells (makes inflows or outflows). Without a common leader. Economists think in models (price is the result of supply-demand, or inflow-outflow) that helps to explain system behavior (short term moves), but models are just ideas to explain complex world (models work until they dont). System thinkers study the stock not aggregate behavior . Looking at markets trough perspective of "eco system" helps better understand the drivers or moving forces?
FOREXCOM:SPX500Education
by citsvar
S&P recovers; bulls maintain long-term controlThe last week of August was sluggish, despite several exciting events. First, NVDA’s earnings, although very strong, failed to boost the market beyond its daily trading range. The GDP and inflation data (positive) released later also didn’t provide sufficient momentum, and the market continued to bracket. The week closed at the high, but buyers didn’t manage to break out of the trading range and confirm control of the daily timeframe. We can conclude that the market has reached a temporary balance—both bulls and bears seem content with the current price and lack the conviction to initiate strong moves. Zooming out to the monthly view, August closed green, near the historical high. The long lower wick signifies a bullish rally that brought the price up from the low, indicating the strength and conviction of the bulls. Although the bulls didn’t manage to achieve a new high, they still maintain long-term control. Overall, the market is still in a monthly and weekly uptrend. Even if sellers manage to set a weekly lower high in September, it is unlikely to mark the start of a trend reversal. Buyers have created enough space for potential weekly consolidation that will not threaten their long-term control. Important levels: Last major weekly trend high (565). If buyers manage to move above and hold they will confirm continuation of monthly uptrend. Last major weekly trend low (510). Buyers must protect this level if they want to keep long term control Short Term Trading range (555-564). Breaking out from the range in either direction will mark gaining of a short-term control.
AMEX:SPYLong
by hermes_trisme
The economy peaked in April 2023"JOBS, JOBS, JOBS!" As Obama said during the recovery period post GFC This chart shows the employment level --- how many people are employed in the States / divided by the unemployment level --- the number of people without a job. . A simple Ratio With all the official Recessions highlighted in the red box. The dates of the recessions are from Wikipedia. JOBS are the ECONOMY Goods and services are still made by people. (That is obviously under attack by robotics and AI) --- but will likely lead to new economies being birthed and new jobs created. THE #FED is late to cut and will likely cut too slowly guaranteeing a GDP contraction therefore further job losses. HOLDING RISK ASSETS IS RISKY needless to say.
FRED:CE16OV
by BallaJi
Weekly Recap & Market Forecast $SPX (Sept 1st —> Sept 6th)**DIYWallST Weekly Recap & Market Forecast** --- Hello Investors! 🌟 This week saw mixed movements in the stock markets as strength in consumer staples, energy, and financials helped offset weakness in discretionary and technology shares. Let’s dive into the key events that shaped the financial landscape. 📈 **Market Overview:** The week began with consumer staples, energy, and financials providing support to the markets, counterbalancing the softness in discretionary and technology shares ahead of key earnings reports in those sectors. Oil prices rose early in the week as Israel responded to a Hezbollah attack from the North, and uncertainty over Libya’s production reemerged. However, crude prices fell back later in the week after a report suggested OPEC+ might proceed with a planned ‘gradual’ oil output increase starting in October. Gold prices continued to set new all-time highs, maintaining their recent outperformance over bitcoin. The S&P 500 encountered resistance around 5,600—a level approximately 20x average 2025 S&P earnings estimates, which moved up towards $275 following Nvidia and other companies' quarterly results. Stock indexes closed mixed for the week, with the S&P edging up 0.2%, the DJIA rising 0.9%, and the Nasdaq down by 0.9%. **Stock Market Performance:** - 📈 S&P 500: Up by 0.2% - 📈 Dow Jones: Up by 0.9% - 📉 NASDAQ: Down by 0.9% **Economic Indicators:** Economic data this week supported the expectation of more central bank rate cuts next month: - **European CPI:** Preliminary German and French CPI fell below the ECB’s 2% target for the first time since August 2021, reinforcing expectations of a rate cut from the ECB in September. - **US Durable Goods:** July data rebounded sharply as expected, but core capital goods (nondefense excluding aircraft) were disappointing, showing no monthly increase since April. - **Richmond Fed Index:** The August print was soft, contracting to a level not seen since the pandemic. - **PCE Inflation Data:** The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge did little to alter expectations for a September rate cut, while Q2 preliminary GDP and July personal consumption data remained solid. - **US Yield Curve:** The 2-10 spread moved closer to de-inverting, with just a few basis points separating it from positive territory. **Corporate News:** Earnings reports continued to be a major market driver, especially in the retail sector, which delivered mixed signals: - **Best Buy:** Exceeded earnings expectations despite posting its 11th consecutive quarter of negative US same-store sales, highlighting that consumers are seeking value but still willing to invest in new technologies. - **Dollar General:** Missed estimates and confirmed that lower-end consumers are struggling, with many running out of paychecks before month-end and relying on credit cards for basic needs. - **PDD (Temu-parent):** Shares were hit hard after the company reported that intensifying competition was pressuring revenue growth. - **Nvidia:** Beat earnings expectations again but saw a slightly more modest increase in guidance than usual, leading to a retracement in big tech stocks on Thursday. - **Marvell Technology:** Impressed investors with a strong earnings report and forecasted that custom silicon would become a significant revenue growth driver. - **Intel:** Reportedly considering a major restructuring, which could include spinning off its foundry business. - **Paramount:** The latest development in the ongoing acquisition saga saw the Edgar Bronfman Jr.-led consortium withdraw its proposal, clearing the way for Skydance to close the deal. **Looking Ahead:** Next week will bring several key events and data releases: - **U.S. Jobs Report** - **U.S. PMI Surveys** - **Fed Beige Book** - **Earnings Reports:** Broadcom ( NASDAQ:AVGO ), Dollar Tree ( NASDAQ:DLTR ), Dick’s Sporting Goods ( NYSE:DKS ), Nio ( NYSE:NIO ) - **Labor Day Holiday:** Markets will be closed on Monday As we move forward, these developments will be crucial in shaping market sentiment and guiding investment decisions. If you have any questions or need further insights, feel free to reach out. Here’s to another week of informed investing and strategic decision-making! 🌟
SP:SPX
by WallSt007
#202436 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500 e-miniGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr sp500: Current bullish leg looks more like a leg in a trading range than something of a new bull trend that breaks above the previous ath. It’s 50/50 if bulls can print a new ath or this stays a lower high. It’s too high to buy for anything but intraday and too early to short unless you short small and have a stop above 5800. It’s a bullish structure but you would be buying very high in a potential trading range. Bad R:R. Quote from last week: comment: Not much difference to dax, just that this market was a tat stronger even. Bulls almost reversed completely but 7 consecutive bull bars is as climactic as it gets. A pullback is due but that does not mean you can short it at 5578. Could go further since the obvious pain trade is up. comment : Are we that much smarter than last Sunday after past week’s price action? I don’t think so. Still a lower high. Bulls closed the month extremely bullish but we are at previous resistance. Can’t be anything but neutral. Clear invalidation prices though. Above 5670 it’s bullish for ath retest 5721 or higher high. Below 5550 bears can generate momentum and convince bulls this was just a climactic retest of the highs and we go down again. Bulls still do have better arguments than the bears as long as they stay above the daily ema at 5565. current market cycle: Bull trend inside bigger trading range. key levels: 5000-5700 bull case: Bulls need to break above 5670 if they want a new ath and it look’s very good after Friday. If they fail on Monday, I have my doubts that they can get it. Bulls are still clearly in control of the market or we would have been trading below the daily ema already. Will be interesting to see how many bears come around above 5700 and bulls taking profit, if we get there. Invalidation is below 5550. bear case: Bears see it as a big trading range and we are at the highs again. They start scaling into shorts above 5600. Same observation as last week. Until bears print consecutive daily bear bars or stronger 1h bars below 5650, bulls remain in control. If bears somehow manage to print a bigger engulfing bear bar on the daily chart, especially if it closes below 5600, that would probably be enough to make many more bulls exiting their longs. Interesting week ahead of us. Invalidation is above 5670. outlook last week: short term: Neutral af. Want to see a pullback and also how market reacts to 5600. → Last Sunday we traded 5652 and now we are at 5661. 9 points off. I do think that was a perfect outlook. short term: Neutral again. No interest in bigger buying above 5600. Will scalp long if bulls make it clear that they want a new ath but mostly looking for signs of bear strength over the next week. Bulls closed above 5660 so it’s a buy signal going into next week but my outlook has not changed. I wait for bears to come around and will only scalp longs. medium-long term: Very much like my outlook in dax. Trading range on the daily chart and we are at the highs. We could make higher ones or not. Does not matter much. I expect 5000 to be hit again in 2024. current swing trade: None. chart update: Big ABC correction is pure speculation. Don’t bet on it. I do think the climactic bull rally is over and market is going sideways before the next bigger breakout. Only above 5750 can bulls dream about a breakout above the big bull wedge.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
SPX: supported by consumer spendingThe Fed's favorite inflation gauge, the PCE index, was standing behind the increased investors optimism during the previous week. The Index reached the level of 2.5% in July, which was lower from market expectation of 2.6%. The US equities reacted positively, in expectation of the first Fed's rate cut. The S&P 500 gained more than 1%, ending the week at the level of 5.648. The index ended August with a gain of 2.3%. Additional support to the surging index came from good results which companies posted for the Q2. There are still only seven companies included in the S&P 500 which are pending results posts. The major companies in the tech industry continue to drive the index to the higher grounds. Market favorite stock, Nvidia, posted increased earnings by 13% for the second quarter. Almost all industries included in the index posted high results for Q2, except materials and real estate industries, which ended the quarter in a correction. The optimism on financial markets is expected to continue, taking into account posted consumer spending data. With the increase in consumer spending, investors are now expecting that the Q3 data will also be positive, and are adjusting accordingly. Also, analysts are currently making corrections of GDP projections for this year. Atlanta's Federal Reserve GDP now also made a correction of GDP growth expectations to 2.5% from 2.0% expected previously.
SP:SPX
by XBTFX
Why ORB + VWAP is Your New Best Friend in Trading -No, SeriouslySP:SPX Hey there, traders! Deno Trading here;👋 Stop feeling like the market is just a one big, mysterious puzzle, and felt you're missing the piece that makes everything click? Well, strap in, because today we're diving into the magic of the Open Range Breakout (ORB) strategy, sprinkled with a little VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price) magic dust. Spoiler alert: This combo is like peanut butter and jelly for traders—simple, effective, and deliciously profitable. The Chart (aka "The Battlefield") Take a look at the chart above—our trusty S&P 500 on a 15-minute time frame. Notice those blue zones? That’s your ORB, the first 15-30 minutes of market action where all the cool kids (a.k.a. the big institutions) are making their moves. The VWAP line? That’s the referee, keeping everyone honest. Now, let’s break down why ORB works most of the time (we're not wizards, after all, just really good strategists). ORB: The Reliable Wingman Imagine ORB as your super-reliable wingman. It’s there at the start of the trading day, setting the boundaries. If the price breaks out of this range, it’s like getting the go-ahead from your wingman to approach—“Yeah, this one's a keeper.” In our chart, you can see how every time the price breaks above or below the ORB, it either rockets off to the moon 🌕 or dives deep into the abyss. And just like in life, we always want to go with the flow—if the price breaks out, we’re in for the ride. VWAP: The Truth Serum Now, let’s talk VWAP. Think of VWAP as the lie detector of the trading world. When the price is above VWAP, it’s like the market is saying, “I’m feeling good, let’s keep pushing higher.” Below VWAP? Well, it’s like the market’s had a rough night out, and it’s probably heading home early. In this chart, you’ll notice how the price interacts with VWAP after breaking out of the ORB. When the price stays above VWAP after a breakout, it’s a sign that the bulls are in control—cue the confetti! 🎉 But when it dips below, the bears start growling, and you might want to reconsider your long positions. Jokes Aside But Hey: ORB Always Works (Except When It Doesn’t) Let’s be real for a second—ORB mostly works. Kind of like how your Wi-Fi mostly works until you really need it. But when ORB does work, it’s like hitting the jackpot. You’re basically riding the wave that everyone else is trying to catch. And if it doesn’t work? Well, blame it on the market gremlins and move on. Why and Why again: ORB + VWAP = Trading BFFs Let me wrap up that if you’re not using ORB with VWAP, you’re missing out on a killer combo. These two are like Batman and Robin, or coffee and donuts—they just make sense together. So, the next time you’re staring at your charts, remember: Trust in the ORB, let VWAP be your guide, and don’t forget to laugh at the market’s little quirks and use the news as your catalysts. Because at the end of the day, trading should be fun, profitable, and maybe just a little bit magical. Now go forth and conquer those charts, my fellow traders! 🚀 Deno Trading in and out!
SP:SPX
by Deno_Trading
Opening (IRA): SPX Oct 18th -5590P/Nov 15th 5590P Calendar... for a 30.15 debit. Comments: Opening a calendar here at or near ATH's and in (fairly) low IV. Selling the front month 40 delta put and buying the back month same strike put. I'm indicating that the setup is bearish, but it's starting as basically neutral from a delta standpoint with the metrics being .08 long delta/13.22 theta, but will benefit from movement into the put strikes, as well as any accompanying IV expansion that occurs. Peak profitability of this setup generally occurs when the stock price falls to the strikes near the expiration of the short option, but calculating the max profit is impossible due to the expiration of the short put leg before the long put leg coupled with any rolls of the short put that might be undertaken to reduce cost basis of the setup. Conversely, max loss starts out as what you paid to get filled for the setup, but you'll generally have a few rolling opportunities of the short put to reduce cost basis further in the event that it doesn't hit your take profit before the short put reaches expiration. Here, I'll look to money/take/run at 10% of what I put it on for and look to roll out the front month on approaching worthless to the following week to reduce cost basis in the setup.
SP:SPXShort
by NaughtyPines
Yield Curve De-Inverting: A Bearish September IndicatorFlying under the radar for much of this month is the spread between the yield on the US 2-year Treasury note and the 10-year note. The gap is now just five basis points, having traded at negative 0.5ppt as recently as June 25. As we enter September, notoriously the worst month on the calendar for the S&P 500, if we see short rates continue to fall while the 10-year holds steady, I assert that it would be a bearish indicator for the S&P 500. Here’s how it might play out: if we see a weak payroll report on Friday, September 6, then chances are bad news will be seen as bad news, resulting in a flight to safety in the Treasury market. Of course, intermediate-term notes could see significant upside pressure, leading to a drop in the 10-year. The next key report following the August NFP update is the CPI report later in September. After today’s in-line PCE numbers, there should be a firm beat on where inflation stands. Now that earnings season is over, the focus will turn back to the macro. Considering that the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index remains sharply in the red, we need to see better economic data to help support the growth narrative looking ahead. Sure, the Q2 second update on US real GDP growth was solid, and the Q3 tracking numbers are sanguine, but the market will be forward-looking. So, keep your eye on the 2s10s spread—a yield curve disinversion during this spooky seasonal stretch could bring about volatility.
TVC:US10YShort
by mikezaccardi
SPX forming a top?US500 - 24h expiry Levels above 5630 continue to attract sellers. The 161.8% Fibonacci extension is located at 5544 from 5650 to 5585. Bespoke support is located at 5540. Selling spikes offers good risk/reward. Economic figures could adversley affect the short term technical picture. We look to Sell at 5630 (stop at 5665) Our profit targets will be 5540 and 5470 Resistance: 5630 / 5650 / 5680 Support: 5545 / 5540 / 5470 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by OANDA
1
Fed’s Preferred Inflation Indicator TomorrowTomorrow’s macroeconomic calendar is set for a major event! 📊 At 8:30 AM Eastern Time, we’ll see the release of the Fed’s preferred inflation indicator: the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index. The implied move for PCE is +/- 35 points, with the estimated month-over-month core PCE at 0.2%. 📈 Stay tuned for market reactions and how it could impact the broader indices! SP:SPX AMEX:SPY NASDAQ:QQQ #Finance #Investing #MarketWatch #EconomicData #Inflation #PCE #Fed #StockMarket #FinancialNews
AMEX:SPYLong
by AlgoTradeAlert
S&P500 v USD since 2008. Cheap dollar guarantees stock expansionThis is a cross chart analysis between the S&P500 index (SPX) and the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) since the 2008 Housing Crisis. Ahead of widely anticipated Fed rate cut next month, it is useful to see how the Dollar has impacted from its perspective the stock market on a multi-year basis. As you can see, the DXY has been trading within a Channel Up since the 2009 Housing Crisis bottom. At the moment it is under the Resistance of the Lower Highs trend-line (dashed) and a rate cut should apply even stronger selling pressure and keep it under. There is still some wayt to go until it hits the bottom of the Channel Up again. We believe that the stock market is at the point where it finishes the recovery phase (blue Arc) and will enter the expansion phase (green Channel Up), at the beginning of next year. As a result, a rate cut and as a matter of fact a series of rate cuts by the Fed, will do wonders on S&P500, giving investors steady long-term opportunities to buy low and sell high within a strictured Channel. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:SPX
by TradingShot
7
S&P 500 Set for Downward Trend as Investors Eye Economic DataStocks Rise Before the Open as Investors Await U.S. Economic Data S&P 500 Technical Analysis: The price recently Rejected its support zone and has subsequently rebounded, indicating a potential retest. The current outlook suggests that as long as the price remains below 5620, a bearish trend is likely to develop, to 5584. A break below this level could trigger a more substantial bearish move. Conversely, if the price stabilizes above 5620, it may rise to 5644, and sustaining above 5644 could lead to a move towards an all-time high (ATH). Today's GDP data release is anticipated to have a negative impact on the indices if the figures do not meet expectations. Key Levels: Pivot Line: 5620 Resistance Levels: 5644, 5675, 5709 Support Levels: 5584, 5525, 5491 Expected Trading Range for Today: The price is likely to fluctuate between 5644 and 5525. Trend: Downward Movement
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by SroshMayi
1