SPX (S&P 500 Index)
S&P500 Last time it made that bottom was 18 months ago.S&P500 / US500 is trading inside a multi year Channel Up that goes back to October 2022.
The index almost hit the Channel bottom this week and immediately we see a rebound attempt.
It may be under the 1week MA50 but this is not disastrous as the patterns last bottom was formed exactly under it on October 23rd 2023, 18 months ago.
On top of that, the 1week RSI was exactly where it is now, on the 40.00 Support, bearish enough to call for a long term buy.
In addition, the both bearish waved leading to both bottoms were almost -11%. This high symmetry potential suggests that the bullish wave that will follow may be of a similar +28.34% rise.
This is a unique opportunity to buy and target 7000.
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I spy an Evening Star Doji on SPXso alot is going on. when we gapped up and ran nonstop 3/25-3/26, i decided to look for reversal signals. tues was a tight range. it formed a doji; which was suspect. the move below the open print today was the second. and now i see we are up on a tweet and a prayer. this 3 candlestick pattern confirms that. however... the higher timeframes are in a wide range. so, if we reverse the bearish candlestick >5720 i believe we can retrace a bit... maybe revisit the sell fell off area.
***to invalidate the sell trigger, we need to bet above the doji.
***if we do keep rocking and rolling... note this area. it is an unfilled gap as of now. if it gaps down, wait to see how 1st 15-30mins react. looks like ES-emini gapped down a bit. that may be it, but this is an A+ set up for a trip back to take out short term lows at least. tootles!
For more on the pattern... I love the breakdown/visual provided here:
alchemymarkets.com
Don’t Let a Green Candle Fool YouDon’t Let a Green Candle Fool You | SPX Analysis 01 April 2025
We got the “boing” – but not the bounce that changes anything meaningful.
Monday opened like a trap door - gap down, quick poke near 5500, and then a full day of rallying that had CNBC anchors high-fiving like they just called the bottom of the century.
Except… they didn’t.
We’ve seen this act before. One-day rallies that puff up like a balloon, then vanish. And just like before, I’m not chasing a single green candle or headline optimism. I’m not a bull until 5700 is reclaimed - simple as that. That’s the bear flag failure point, the GEX pivot, and my personal line in the sand.
So while the crowd celebrates a maybe-double-bottom, I’m keeping my slippers firmly on the bear side of the wardrobe. And if Monday proved anything, it’s this…
Sometimes, the trades you forget about end up being the ones that pay.
This Bounce Doesn’t Fool Me – Here's Why I’m Still Short
Let’s call it what it is: a rally inside a bearish structure. Until we break the top of that structure, it’s just noise.
Here’s what really matters:
Monday gapped down, dropped toward 5500, and then staged a rally.
Everyone’s calling “double bottom!” - but I’ve seen more convincing bottoms on a bowling ball.
These reversal days have been common lately – I counted five in the last six weeks.
We’re still under 5700, which is the GEX flip, the flag failure, and the bullish invalidation.
That means I’m still riding:
Bear Swing #1 – opened last week, still on.
New aggressive shorts – 10-min bearish Tag ‘n Turn below 5500 only.
Bonus: A Forgotten Trade Hit Target on Monday
You’ll love this.
I had a bearish swing from around 20 March. Honestly, I forgot about it. Wrote it off. It was gathering dust in the corner of my options book.
Then, boom – Monday open… "Order Filled".
Target hit. Gap did the job. Payout in the pocket.
It’s a reminder every trader needs:
“It ain’t over until expiration… and sometimes not even then.”
GEX Analysis Update
Whole and half numbers acting as support and resistance
Expert Insights: Avoid These Rookie Mistakes
❌ Mistake #1: Getting Sucked Into Green Candles
Just because the market bounced doesn’t mean it’s time to flip bull. Watch the levels, not your feelings.
❌ Mistake #2: Cancelling Too Early
The Trade’s Not Over Just Because You’re Bored
Most traders kill good trades because they get impatient.
They cancel too soon. They “manage the trade” to death. Or worse, they chase a green candle and flip bias on a whim.
Here’s what Monday reminded us:
✅ Let the trade breathe.
That bear swing from 20 March? Forgotten. Ignored. Hit target anyway.
✅ Stick to your plan, not your mood.
The market rallied. But did it change the structure? No. Still below 5700. Still bearish bias.
✅ A good trade doesn’t need your babysitting.
Set the rules. Place the trade. Walk away. Check back later with a smile.
The traders who win are the ones who stop trying to outsmart their own system.
---
Fun Fact
In 1999, a 15-year-old stock trader named Jonathan Lebed made over $800,000 pumping penny stocks from his bedroom... before the SEC came knocking.
Moral of the story? Markets will always reward confidence, consistency, and a little bit of cunning – but it’s the trader who sticks to a rule-based system who lasts beyond the headlines.
Combined US Indexes - Lower High checked; Lower Low next...As expected from previous analysis, there is a lower high likely as the TD Sell Setup is Perfected. This just missed the target but has the TD Bear Trend intact
Following, a Bearish Engulfing pattern plus a Gap Down occurred yesterday.
Breaking back into Extension Zone box... and likely to protrude out the other side.
MACD is turning down in the bearish zone too.
So, looking for a lower low now...
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for April 1, 2025🔮 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍:
🇺🇸📈 ISM Manufacturing PMI Release: The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will release its Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for March. A reading below 50 indicates contraction in the manufacturing sector, which could influence market sentiment.
🇺🇸🏗️ Construction Spending Data: The U.S. Census Bureau will report on February's construction spending, providing insights into the health of the construction industry and potential impacts on related sectors.
🇺🇸📄 Job Openings Report: The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for February will be released, offering a view into labor demand and potential implications for wage growth and consumer spending.
📊 Key Data Releases 📊
📅 Tuesday, April 1:
🏭 ISM Manufacturing PMI (10:00 AM ET):
Forecast: 49.5%
Previous: 50.3%
Assesses the health of the manufacturing sector; a reading below 50% suggests contraction.
🏗️ Construction Spending (10:00 AM ET):
Forecast: 0.3%
Previous: -0.2%
Measures the total value of construction work done; indicates trends in the construction industry.
📄 Job Openings (10:00 AM ET):
Forecast: 7.7 million
Previous: 7.7 million
Provides insight into labor market demand by reporting the number of job vacancies.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
ES1 2025-03-31 SPOOZ 15minOBHello everyone, I hope you won, stayed out, or learned something form the market today 😂.
Today was a easy grab.
Drawdown: 17. Tics
TP: 111. Tics Grabbed (out of 438)
Spooz Open Manipulation,
Broke near high,
Retraced to 15min Order Block,
TP Hit at 3 equal Highs (volume).
If you found this inciteful, join our group discussion! (link in bio)
Moderna. Why Anti-Covid19 Juggernaut Goes 'The Bloodmachine'It's gone 5 years or so... (Duh..? 5 years, really? 🥴) since everyone was talking about COVID-19 pandemic, vaccines, "world will never be the same again", and so on.
- And now?..
- It's gone. It's absolutely gone..! Since nothing last forever and no one should chase a feather, or dust in the wind.
This is why we at our 💖Super-Duper Beloved @PandorraResearch Team decided to build this idea, as a educational idea to learn, even this story is about single Moderna stock, and we have reasonable considerations about fundamental, technical and price movement perspectives.
Well.. Let's the story begin...
Over the past few years, Moderna's stock has experienced a significant decline, primarily due to several key factors.
Here's a detailed explanation of why Moderna's stock has been moving downward:
1. Declining Demand for COVID-19 Vaccine
The primary reason for Moderna's stock decline is the waning demand for COVID-19 vaccines. During the pandemic, Moderna's mRNA-based vaccine was one of the first and most widely used, leading to a surge in sales and profitability. However, as the pandemic transitioned into an endemic phase, demand for vaccines decreased substantially. This shift has resulted in declining sales for Moderna, impacting its revenue and profitability.
2. Sales Guidance and Performance
In recent years, Moderna has faced challenges in meeting sales expectations. For instance, in 2025, the company forecasted sales between $1.5 billion and $2.5 billion, which was significantly lower than analysts' expectations of around $2.9 billion. This discrepancy led to a sharp decline in stock prices as investors became increasingly pessimistic about the company's future growth prospects.
3. Cost-Cutting Measures
To mitigate the impact of declining sales, Moderna has implemented cost-cutting measures. The company plans to reduce its cash operating costs by $1 billion in 2025 and an additional $500 million in 2026. While these efforts aim to improve profitability, they also reflect the challenges Moderna faces in maintaining its financial health without strong vaccine sales.
4. Competition in New Market s
Moderna is expanding into new markets, such as the respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccine space, with its product mResvia. However, this market is highly competitive, with established players like Pfizer and GSK already present. The competition and uncertainty about market share have contributed to investor skepticism about Moderna's ability to drive growth through new products.
5. Delayed Break-Even Point
Initially, Moderna aimed to break even on an operating cash cost basis by 2026. However, this goal has been pushed back to 2028, indicating a slower-than-expected transition to profitability. This delay has further eroded investor confidence in the company's ability to execute its strategic plans effectively.
6. Valuation and Market Performance
Moderna's stock has underperformed both the industry and the broader market. The stock trades below its 200-day and 50-day moving averages, reflecting a lack of momentum. Additionally, Moderna's price-to-sales ratio is lower than the industry average, which might suggest undervaluation but also indicates a lack of investor enthusiasm for the stock.
7. Analyst Sentiment and Profitability Forecasts
Analysts have become increasingly pessimistic about Moderna's prospects, with many not expecting the company to turn profitable again until at least 2029. This negative outlook has contributed to the downward pressure on the stock. Furthermore, estimates for loss per share have increased, reinforcing the bearish sentiment among investors.
In summary, Moderna's stock decline is primarily driven by declining vaccine demand, missed sales expectations, increased competition in new markets, delayed profitability, and negative analyst sentiment. While the company is taking steps to adapt to these challenges, the path to recovery remains uncertain, contributing to ongoing investor skepticism.
--
Best 'No more Covid' wishes,
@PandorraResearch Team 😎
S&P500 during TRUMP's 2018 vs 2025 TRADE WAR.The S&P500 index (SPX) has started off the year in disappointing fashion as since mid-February the market has corrected by over -10% and of course almost all of it is attributed to the trade tariffs imposed by President Trump. As you know, this is not the first time Trump goes into a Trade War. The 1st has started in January 2018 when the first tariff announcements were made against China.
We can say that Trump's 2nd Trade War officially started on March 03 2025, with tariff implementations against Mexico, Canada and China. As you can see, the build up to both Trade Wars has been identical both in structural price count and in 1W RSI terms.
By the week of February 05 2018, the index has dropped by a little over -11%, hit the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level and rebounded, while the 1W RSI formed a Lower Low. We can claim that this are roughly the levels we are now. That drop started a Megaphone pattern, which ran through all of 2018. The ultimate bottom for this Megaphone Trade War pattern came in December 24 2018 on the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line).
Right now, the 1W RSI is almost on Lower Lows while crossing below its 1W MA50 and what remains to be seen is if it will hit its 0.236 Fib to form the bottom of the Megaphone or will rebound now.
Do you think Trump's 2nd Trade War will keep the market highly volatile within a Megaphone or will plunge it even more?
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Bear Hedge Trigger Hit - It’s Risk-Off This WeekBear Hedge Trigger Hit - It’s Risk-Off This Week | SPX Analysis 31 Mar 2025
Well, it’s officially the start of a new week... and the end of the month. A time when markets often go a bit boing-boing as portfolio managers do their monthly “window dressing.” But let’s not get distracted by the glitter - Friday’s price action just ripped the rug out from under the bulls.
My SPX slippers barely had time to get comfy before I was forced to swap them for spiked bear boots. Again.
Friday’s break through my bear hedge trigger flipped the script, and now I’m locked into bear mode until the charts convince me otherwise. And right now? They’re not even trying.
---
Bear Flag Breakdown: What the Charts Are Screaming 🐻
Let’s break it down trader-to-trader...
Friday’s move confirmed the break of a textbook bear flag.
My target for this bear swing now sits at 5140, and unless we break above 5700, the bear case remains fully intact.
Short-term? I'm bearish through 5500, watching 5555 as a gamma inflection point which could accelerate the bear move.
Here’s what makes this particularly spicy:
Overnight futures are down nearly 1% - not the Monday morning bounce you’d expect if bulls were in charge.
GEX is stacked with puts - if we breach 5555, market makers may accelerate the drop by hedging and reducing positive gamma exposure.
Momentum is gaining. And it feels like we’ve seen this film before...
🎞️ Rewind to 2022…
Remember that slow grind lower in 2022 where every bounce got sold, and traders kept trying to “buy the dip” only to get steamrolled?
Yeah. This move is shaping up the same way.
A pattern break. A bearish continuation. And if we follow the 2022 script... buckle up. The bears may just be getting started, and the rest of the year could get nasty.
---
Expert Insights: Avoid These Bear Market Mistakes
🔻 Mistake #1: Trading What You Hope Will Happen
Stop “buying the dip” because you want it to bounce. Trade what’s in front of you.
🔻 Mistake #2: Using the Wrong System for This Environment
Bullish systems don’t work in bear trends. You need a mechanical system that thrives on volatility (like mine).
---
Fun Fact
In 2018, the S&P 500 plunged nearly 20% in December alone, marking one of the worst year-end sell-offs in history. The culprit? A mix of Fed tightening and market-wide panic.
🧐 Fast forward to today… and while the catalyst may differ, market structure patterns have a funny way of rhyming, don’t they?
The Stock Market Decline Appears to be only in the US as of nowLast week on one of my member live videos I pointed out to the attendees that European markets were currently at, or very close to their All-Time highs...whereas in the US, we've entered the technical definition of a stock market correction...(down 10%). If you're so inclined to Google an economic calendar, it also appears the economic metrics like CPI, unemployment, etc... appear much better as well. There's an old adage in the markets.... "When the US sneezes, the global economy catches a cold" . However, at this very moment in time, the only thing that appears sick is the US. Maybe that changes with time. I suspect that will be the case...but in any event, one thing that is clear is that our stock market indices are signaling that whatever economic sickness is to be contracted, it will have originated here...in the United States.
That is certainly a new phenomenon.
For the past couple years I have been warning my members (and followers here on Trading View) of a long-term top in the stock markets. Week after week in my trading room, I have commented that I believe I have all constituent waves accounted for, to the best of my ability, to say with a high degree of confidence that a super-cycle wave (III) has topped .
What we have lacked is the price action to confirm that statement. This morning, I cannot tell you we have confirmation. That confirming probability only comes when price declines below the area of the wave 4 of one lesser degree. That area is outlined in the SPX daily chart entitled the "Must Hold Region". We are not there yet, nor do I think price makes a bee-line there in one shot. Therefore, I am NOT in panic mode this morning because I do believe we need a retrace higher and only that retracement's structure will inform us the higher probability of future price subdivisions....(higher or lower).
Panic is the necessary trader behavior needed to decline in such fashion as I believe a super cycle wave (IV) will start out. However personally, I do not think it's today. Futures are red this morning and closer to the recent lows than last week...the headlines surrounding the stock market appear very negative...but as of this morning, the MACD indicator on intraday charts is saying this type of sentiment is getting slightly weaker and NOT making new lows.
Therefore, I continue to maintain the price and technical indications tell me a minor B is either currently underway, or will be confirmed in the short term. Until those parameters get flipped, I'll reserve my panic (so to speak) for the c of (c) of intermediate (A) into the must hold region later this year... where it will probably be justified at that time.
Best to all,
Chris
SPX: tariffs combined with inflationInflation expectations are on the rise again in the US. As markets are closely watching developments with trade tariffs, in combination with increasing inflation, the sentiment ended the week in a red zone. During the week, the S&P 500 was struggling to sustain a bit of positive sentiment, however, Friday's trading session brought back significant sell off of stocks. The week started at 5.780, but it ended at 5.580, losing 1,97% on Friday. In the last six weeks, the index spent five weeks in negative territory.
Tech companies were the ones that dragged the rest of the market to the downside. META and Amazon were down by 4,3%, Apple dropped by 2,66%, Tesla lost 3,51% in value. Trade tariffs are still a cloud which brings high uncertainty to the market. News reported that both Canada and the European Union are considering reciprocal measures as a response to the imposed US tariffs. The US Administration announced last week potential 25% tariffs on all car imports to the US. As long as this kind of trade war is in the open space, it could not be expected that the market would consolidate and stabilize. In this sense, further high volatility might be expected. In the week ahead, the NFP and unemployment data for March will be posted, so this would be a day to watch.
$KRE CRASH COMING ... Not yet tho..we'll find out..Regional Banks seem to be heading on a slippery path identical to the most previous crash pattern back when they needed all the loan Bailouts. Now that all the loans have stopped, I'm sure some banks may be heading towards loan restructuring perhaps, maybe defaults, I'm not sure honestly. I just know that the chart never lies and I've been watching and waiting for a long while. I predicted the first crash back then and I currently have no doubts with the current chart ahead of me. As always, I will do my best to provide the best insight possible into these speculations. Currently we have the Daily breaking trend and the bar count getting close to the previous 141 bars. The only difference is that we bounce off the 100% retracement. If we continue to lose the 1.27, we'll be headed for the 1.61..... updates soon.
Weekly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for March 31 – April 4, 2025🔮 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍:
🇺🇸📈 Anticipated U.S. Jobs Report: The March employment data, set for release on Friday, April 4, is expected to show a slowdown in job growth, with forecasts predicting an increase of 140,000 nonfarm payrolls, down from 151,000 in February. The unemployment rate is projected to remain steady at 4.1%. This report will be closely monitored for signs of economic momentum and potential impacts on Federal Reserve policy.
🇺🇸💼 President Trump's Tariff Announcement: President Donald Trump is scheduled to unveil his "reciprocal tariffs" plan on Wednesday, April 2, dubbed "Liberation Day." The announcement is anticipated to include a 25% duty on imported vehicles, which could significantly impact the automotive industry and broader market sentiment. Investors are bracing for potential volatility in response to these trade policy developments.
🇺🇸📊 Manufacturing and Services Sector Updates: Key indicators for the manufacturing and services sectors are due this week. The ISM Manufacturing PMI, scheduled for Tuesday, April 1, is expected to show a slight contraction with a forecast of 49.5%, down from 50.3% in February. The ISM Services PMI, set for release on Thursday, April 3, is projected at 53.0%, indicating continued expansion but at a slower pace. These reports will provide insights into the health of these critical sectors.
MarketWatch
📊 Key Data Releases 📊
📅 Monday, March 31:
🏭 Chicago Business Barometer (PMI) (9:45 AM ET):
Forecast: 45.5
Previous: 43.6
Measures business conditions in the Chicago area, with readings below 50 indicating contraction.
📅 Tuesday, April 1:
🏗️ Construction Spending (10:00 AM ET):
Forecast: 0.3%
Previous: -0.2%
Indicates the total amount spent on construction projects, reflecting trends in the construction industry.
📄 Job Openings (10:00 AM ET):
Forecast: 7.7 million
Previous: 7.7 million
Provides insight into labor demand by measuring the number of job vacancies.
📅 Wednesday, April 2:
🏭 Factory Orders (10:00 AM ET):
Forecast: 0.6%
Previous: 1.7%
Reflects the dollar level of new orders for both durable and non-durable goods, indicating manufacturing demand.
📅 Thursday, April 3:
📉 Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET):
Forecast: 226,000
Previous: 224,000
Measures the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits for the first time, providing insight into labor market conditions.
📊 Trade Balance (8:30 AM ET):
Forecast: -$123.0 billion
Previous: -$131.4 billion
Indicates the difference between exports and imports of goods and services, reflecting the nation's trade activity.
📅 Friday, April 4:
💵 Average Hourly Earnings (8:30 AM ET):
Forecast: 0.3%
Previous: 0.3%
Measures the change in earnings per hour for workers, indicating wage inflation.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult with a professional financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
BRIEFING Week #13 : ETH offers perfect opportunityHere's your weekly update ! Brought to you each weekend with years of track-record history..
Don't forget to hit the like/follow button if you feel like this post deserves it ;)
That's the best way to support me and help pushing this content to other users.
Kindly,
Phil
TESLA is up 47X vs the SPX. Can it do another 6.9X?An extraordinary unicorn enterprise, or a collection of companies and intellectual properties, led by the most prominent CEO in the history of public companies.
TESLA and ELON are impossible to overlook, and this chart has kept many observers on the sidelines for over 14 years. In the initial 6 to 9 years, Wall Street analysts and commentators failed to grasp the bigger picture, focusing excessively on the balance sheet and evaluating the company merely as an automaker. They completely missed the groundbreaking technologies being developed and advanced.
Today, we stand on the brink of fully autonomous vehicles becoming commonplace, artificial intelligence integrating into our everyday lives, and affordable space exploration becoming a reality, not to mention the myriad of other innovative technologies emerging from this remarkable company.
Individuals often enjoy predicting market peaks and labeling stocks as overvalued.
However, this chart comparing Tesla to the S&P 500 indicates that the stock may be gearing up for another surge to new heights.
Picture 10 million robotaxis cruising through our streets.
Envision a fleet of vehicles that not only generates income but also undergoes upgrade cycles, in contrast to traditional cars that face maintenance cycles, and are bogged down by Human operator's.
This development is poised to significantly transform the self-hailing ride-sharing market and the food delivery sector, potentially eliminating the role of human drivers.
In fact, Uber could very well become Tesla's largest client!
SPY Price Projection: Mid-2025 TargetRevealing Market Trends: Logarithmic Regression Analysis Indicates Bullish Path for SPY
In the ever-evolving realm of financial analysis, the search for reliable predictions remains ongoing. Logarithmic scale regression analysis, coupled with potent indicators, has emerged as a promising tool for discerning trends, particularly regarding assets like the SPY.
This analysis delves into the utilization of logarithmic scale regression alongside two robust indicators, offering insights into the potential trajectory of the SPY's price movement. It's essential to note that the interpretations and predictions presented are based on my analysis alone and should not be construed as financial advice. As with any market analysis, uncertainties persist, and actual outcomes may diverge from projections.
Logarithmic scale regression accounts for the exponential nature of price movements, providing a nuanced perspective on long-term trends. When combined with indicators such as moving averages or momentum oscillators, the analysis gains depth, revealing not only the direction but also the strength of the trend.
After meticulous examination of historical data and the application of analytical tools, our analysis suggests a bullish trajectory for the SPY, with a projected price nearing 620 EUR by mid-2025. This projection implies a significant uptrend from the current date, with a potential increase of approximately 20% over the specified timeframe.
However, it's crucial to approach such forecasts with caution, recognizing the inherent risks associated with financial markets. While our analysis indicates a positive outlook, market conditions can change rapidly, leading to deviations from expected trends.
In summary, logarithmic scale regression analysis, supported by robust indicators, offers valuable insights into market trends and potential price movements. While our analysis suggests a bullish sentiment for the SPY, investors should conduct thorough research and seek professional advice before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer: The analysis provided is based on personal interpretation and should not be considered financial advice. Investing in financial markets carries risks, and actual outcomes may differ. Readers are encouraged to conduct their own research and consult with financial professionals before making investment decisions.
$GOOG Possible Demand Zone 155-143 Targeting 178 By earning!One of worst weekly candles and 3 bearish soldiers pattern made it extremely bearish but now entered the demand zone between 155 to 143 expecting accumulation into this range then possible bottom by mid of April then moving higher after earning targeting upper gap but we keep the target more secure by targeting 178 as closing trade. 161-164 is strong resistance . so the idea bye with weakness and accumulate during coming days with stop loss below 140 approx. Earning estimate 1.6 which is a drop from 2.4 last quarter by 30% - P/E at 19.98 EPS at 8.12 - Average analyst rating at 215 (+60$) from last close at 156. these fundamental make this idea is much likely to succeed. Good luck - please like and share . thanks
S&P 500 Technical Breakdown – Bearish Momentum Building?Looking at this SPX Daily Chart, we’re seeing some clear signs of weakness in the market.
🔹 Breakdown from the Rising Channel – After months of uptrend, SPX has broken below its previous rising channel, signaling potential downside ahead.
🔹 Failed Recovery Attempt – The recent bounce formed a bear flag (highlighted in brown), but today’s sharp drop indicates that the relief rally has been rejected.
🔹 Key Fibonacci Levels in Play –
The 0.382 Fib retracement was acting as support, but price has now slipped below it.
Next key level: The 0.5 Fib (around 5,550) and the 0.618 Fib (near 5,438) could act as crucial support zones.
A deeper retracement to 4,982 (0.786 Fib) isn't out of the question if selling pressure accelerates.
🔹 Moving Averages & Volume –
The price is now under the 200-day moving average (blue line), which is typically a bearish signal if confirmed.
Volume has been increasing on red days, hinting at stronger selling conviction.
🔹 Support & Resistance Zones –
Resistance: ~5,822 (recent bounce level) and ~6,097 (previous high)
Support: ~5,402 and ~4,982 if selling intensifies.
🚨 Final Thoughts: The technical structure is turning bearish, and if the S&P 500 doesn’t reclaim key levels soon, further downside could be on the horizon. Bulls need to step in fast to avoid a deeper correction.
My last warning To Donald Trump and Americansif you Attack Iran's infrastructure, America enters a shitty situation that will last for not years but for decades. you can fix the problem by supporting the Iran's King Reza Pahlavi and the people and the mullahs will be overthrown easily but you are Unknowingly doing it in a very wrong way, if you do it Stockholm syndrome will happen.
----
Price has ping on the channel edges. I hope it becomes just a simple correction but Americans ego is is in line with technicals.
Daily Trade Recap based on VX Algo SystemEOD accountability report: +$537.50
Sleep: 8 hour, Overall health: Energized
As mentioned in our trade recap video yesterday, today was suppose to be really bearish and go down more,
However, the inflation report ended up being really bad and that just crashed the market all day.
I was expecting to see some bounces here and there along the way but it was just straight drill with no buyers in sight.
Daily Trade Recap based on VX Algo System
8:24 AM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3! Look to STR at 1 min MOB or resistance.
11:10 AM VXAlgo NQ 10M Buy Signal
3:36 PM VXAlgo NQ 48M Buy Signal
S&P500 Huge retest of former Channel Down.S&P500 / US500 took a big hit today following the higher than expected PCE, causing a price rejection on the 4hour MA50.
So far however the drop stopped exactly at the top of the former Channel Down of February-March.
With the 4hour RSI on the same level as March 10th, if this level holds, it will be a huge retest buy signal and will start a new bullish wave.
Based on this, we'd expect the 1day MA50 to be targeted at 5,850.
Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!