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SPX (S&P 500 Index)

Head & Shoulder Breakdown: Will S&P 500 Drop Another 10%?● The S&P 500 has experienced significant volatility recently, mainly due to President Donald Trump's announcement of new tariffs. ● On April 3, 2025, the index saw a nearly 5% drop, its worst single-day loss in five years. ● The recent price action suggests that the index has broken below the neckline of the Head and Shoulder pattern, indicating a potential continuation of the downward trend. ◉ Key support levels to watch ● 1st Support - 5,200 - 5,250 ● 2nd Support - 4,950 - 5,000
SP:SPXShort
by NaranjCapital
Trump Goes 'Cynosure' of All Eyes as He Walked Into '1930' RoomThe Striking Parallels Between Trump's 2025 Tariffs and the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 The recent trade policies under President Trump's second administration bear remarkable similarities to the controversial Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930, both in approach and potential consequences. These parallels offer important historical lessons about protectionist trade policies. Protectionist Foundations and Scope Both trade initiatives share fundamentally protectionist motivations aimed at shielding American industries from foreign competition. The Smoot-Hawley Act increased import duties by approximately 20% with the initial goal of protecting struggling U.S. farmers from European agricultural imports. Similarly, Trump's 2025 trade agenda explicitly aims at "backing the United States away from integration with the global economy and steering the country toward becoming more self-contained". What began as targeted protections in both eras quickly expanded in scope. While Smoot-Hawley initially focused on agricultural protections, industry lobbyists soon demanded similar protections for their sectors. Trump's tariffs have followed a comparable pattern, beginning with specific sectors but rapidly expanding to affect a broad range of imports, with projected tariffs exceeding $1.4 trillion by April 2025—nearly four times the $380 billion imposed during his first administration. Specific Tariff Examples The parallel implementation approaches are notable: Trump imposed a 25% global tariff on steel and aluminum products effective March 12, 2025 Trump raised tariffs on all Chinese imports to 20% on March 4, 2025 Trump imposed 25% tariffs on most Canadian and Mexican goods Smoot-Hawley increased overall import duties by approximately 20% Smoot-Hawley raised the average import tax on foreign goods to about 40% (following the Fordney-McCumber Act of 1922) Global Retaliation and Economic Consequences Perhaps the most striking similarity is the international backlash. The Smoot-Hawley tariffs triggered retaliatory measures from over 25 countries, dramatically reducing global trade and worsening the Great Depression. Trump's 2025 tariffs have already prompted counter-tariffs from major trading partners: China responded with 15% tariffs on U.S. coal and liquefied natural gas, and 10% on oil and agricultural machines Canada implemented 25% tariffs on approximately CA$30 billion of U.S. goods The European Union announced tariffs on €4.5 billion of U.S. consumer goods and €18 billion of U.S. steel and agricultural products Expert Opposition Both policies faced significant opposition from economic experts. More than 1,000 economists urged President Hoover to veto the Smoot-Hawley Act. Trump's 2025 tariffs? Reaction is coming yet... Potential Economic Impact The historical record suggests caution. The Smoot-Hawley Act is "now widely blamed for worsening the severity of the Great Depression in the U.S. and around the world". Trump's "more audacious intervention" similarly carries "potentially seismic consequences for jobs, prices, diplomatic relations and the global trading system". These striking parallels between trade policies nearly a century apart demonstrate that economic nationalism and retaliatory trade cycles remain persistent challenges in international commerce, with historical lessons that remain relevant today. Stock market Impact Just watch the graph.. -- Best wishes, Your Beloved @PandorraResearch Team 😎
SP:SPX
by PandorraResearch
April 3rd Daily Trade Recap EOD accountability report: +$161.25 Sleep: 6 hour, Overall health: not good at all. **Daily Trade Recap based on VX Algo System ** 9:42 AM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3! 10:30 AM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3! 11:11 AM VXAlgo ES 10M Buy signal (double signal) 12:04 pm Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3! 1:31pm Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3! 1:40 PMVXAlgo NQ 10M Buy Signal double signal Another wild day, market went extremely bearish and has been rejecting the 5 min resistance and playing out as expected.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by WallSt007
Opening (IRA): SPX May 16th 5130/5160/5850/5880 Iron Condor... for a 10.20 credit. Comments: High IVR/IV >21. Hesitant to add more long delta here, so going delta neutral in SPX and structuring the trade such that I receive one-third the width of the wings (30) in credit. Metrics: Buying Power Effect: 19.80 Max Profit: 10.20 ROC at Max: 51.52% 50% Max: 5.10 ROC at 50% Max: 25.8% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, rolling down oppositional side on side test, but won't hesitate to take profit quickly if IV crushes in dramatically post "Liberation Day."
SP:SPX
by NaughtyPines
Post-Trump Dump: Bear Bias ValidatedPost-Trump Dump: Bear Bias Validated | SPX Analysis 03 April 2025 Well, we’re officially post-Trump-dump, and the market’s not exactly throwing a parade about it. Futures have dropped nearly 200 points and are camped out near the lows as I write this. It’s shaping up to be one of those "big gap, big drama" mornings – the kind that rewards patience and punishes panic. And while every headline’s now spinning a narrative about tariffs, Trump, and trade wars… Our community was already leaning in the right direction: Buy the rumour, sell the news. ✔️ No surprise here. My discretionary override to stay bearish below 5700 is paying off. No whim. Just discipline. So, what’s next? Simple. Stick to the plan. --- Market Cracks, But I’m Not Calling a Collapse Let’s get this out of the way first: I don’t think this is the Big One. No market apocalypse. No Armageddon. No bunker required. This looks more like a tariff reset than total collapse - a sharp repricing, not a system failure. But that doesn’t mean there’s no money to be made. Far from it. Here’s what I’m doing right now: Bearish swings are active and in profit below 5700. Aggressive add-ins under 5500 using: Pulse bars 10-min Tag ‘n Turn setups GEX flip has slid to 5640, but I’m still anchored at 5700. Why? Because a few ticks don’t warrant overcomplicating. I’ll reassess GEX levels at the open for any spicy shifts. And importantly… My bull swing hedge might finally be worth something - giving me room to de-risk last week’s exposure while continuing to profit on the downside. --- 🎯 Expert Insights – Don’t Change the Plan for Clickbait Here’s what most traders get wrong on days like this: ❌ They abandon their bias because of headlines. ❌ They tinker with rules based on GEX micro-movements. ❌ They overreact to volatility instead of letting price confirm action. What I’ve learned (the hard way, years ago): ✅ Structure matters more than spin. If you had your levels mapped, this wasn’t a surprise. ✅ Your plan is only as good as your commitment to it. Today is just another reason why I remain bearish until 5700 breaks. ✅ Reacting emotionally to news is a rookie mistake. Today’s dump was just a fast-forward to what was already brewing. 🧠 Fun Fact In 2018, when Trump first tweeted about tariffs, the market dropped over 1,100 points in a single session - then rebounded completely within 3 weeks. Moral of the story? Markets overreact. Patterns don’t. Your job is to follow the pattern – not the press conference. --- Video & Audio Podcast On Main Blog Happy trading, Phil Less Brain, More Gain …and may your trades be smoother than a cashmere codpiece --- p.s.Want to Stay Calm in Market Chaos? Today proves the value of: ✅ A mechanical strategy ✅ A clear structure ✅ And a mindset built for turbulence Join the Fast Forward Mentorship - trade live, twice a week, with me and the crew. PLUS Monthly on-demand 1-2-1's Learn how to profit from panic - without the panic. Or watch the free training to see the SPX Income System in action. Let’s trade this system together - real time, real trades, real profit. LINK IN BIO
SP:SPXShort
by MrPhilNewton
Daily Trade Recap based on VX Algo System EOD accountability report: +$2,337.50 Sleep: 5 hour, Overall health: not gud ** Daily Trade Recap based on VX Algo System ** 9:36 AM VXAlgo NQ 48M Buy Signal, 9:44 AM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3! 11:13 AM VXAlgo ES 10M Sell Signal (lost $525 on this play) 1:21 PM VXAlgo ES 10M Sell Signal 2:05 PM VXAlgo NQ 48M Sell Signal 2:40 PM VXAlgo ES 10M Buy signal (triple signal) Overall a pretty wild day, I'm extremely glad that we have a system that works and reads the MM very well. The only thing we need to do is be extremely disciplined and pull the trigger without hesitation.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by WallSt007
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for April 3, 2025🔮 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍: 🇺🇸📈 President Trump's 'Liberation Day' Tariffs Implemented: On April 2, President Donald Trump announced a series of new tariffs, referred to as "Liberation Day" tariffs, aiming to address trade imbalances. These include a baseline 10% tariff on all imports, with higher rates for specific countries: 34% on Chinese goods, 20% on European Union products, and 25% on all foreign-made automobiles. The administration asserts these measures will revitalize domestic industries, though critics warn of potential price increases for consumers and possible retaliatory actions from affected nations. 📊 Key Data Releases 📊 📅 Thursday, April 3: 📉 Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET): Forecast: 225,000​ Previous: 224,000​ Measures the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits for the first time during the past week, providing insight into the labor market's health.​ 📈 Trade Balance (8:30 AM ET): Forecast: -$76.0 billion​ Previous: -$131.4 billion​ Indicates the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services, reflecting the nation's trade activity.​ 🏢 ISM Services PMI (10:00 AM ET): Forecast: 53.0​ Previous: 53.5​ Assesses the performance of the services sector; a reading above 50 suggests expansion.​ ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.​ 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
S&P500: Recovery has started and the next stop is the 1D MA50.S&P500 is marginally neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 45.213, MACD = -61.280, ADX = 30.163) as it's recovered from Friday's bearish sentiment and already crossed above the 0.236 Fibonacci level. This rebound made Monday's low a Double Bottom and since the 1D RSI is on a HL bullish divergence, we expect a strong 1 month rally to start. The first target is the 1D MA50 slightly over the 0.5 Fib mark (TP1 = 5,835) and after a small correction, the 0.786 Fib (TP2 = 6,000), which is also the top of the 5 month Bull Flag. ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by InvestingScope
COMPLEX WAVE STRUCTURE FORMING WITHIN WAVE B or 2 HIGH RISKThe chart posted is the updated sp 500 pattern that is forming .I have thought we would see a simple wave structure form as the spiral cycles topped 2/19 and bottom3/13 in perfect timing since the two bottom I have gone long twice and shorted twice at both tops . I now am forced the go to cash and wait for the wave structure to form the next wave The issue is the HIGH VIX and the formation on 15 min and 5 min charts . So being in cash is the best .Best of trades WAVETIMER ! we must hold 5444 /5388 for wave B 1.272 and 1.382 of wave A
TVC:SPX
by wavetimer
1
Wall Street vs GoldZilla. The End of 'Irrational Exuberance' Era"Irrational exuberance" is the phrase used by the then-Federal Reserve Board chairman, Alan Greenspan, in a speech given at the American Enterprise Institute during the dot-com bubble of the 1990s. The phrase was interpreted as a warning that the stock market might be overvalued. Origin Greenspan's comment was made during a televised speech on December 5, 1996 (emphasis added in excerpt) Clearly, sustained low inflation implies less uncertainty about the future, and lower risk premiums imply higher prices of stocks and other earning assets. We can see that in the inverse relationship exhibited by price/earnings ratios and the rate of inflation in the past. But how do we know when irrational exuberance has unduly escalated asset values, which then become subject to unexpected and prolonged contractions as they have in Japan over the past decade? Greenspan wrote in his 2008 book that the phrase occurred to him in the bathtub while he was writing a speech. The irony of the phrase and its aftermath lies in Greenspan's widely held reputation as the most artful practitioner of Fedspeak, often known as Greenspeak, in the modern televised era. The speech coincided with the rise of dedicated financial TV channels around the world that would broadcast his comments live, such as CNBC. Greenspan's idea was to obfuscate his true opinion in long complex sentences with obscure words so as to intentionally mute any strong market response. The phrase was also used by Yale professor Robert J. Shiller, who was reportedly Greenspan's source for the phrase. Shiller used it as the title of his book, Irrational Exuberance, first published in 2000, where Shiller states: Irrational exuberance is the psychological basis of a speculative bubble. I define a speculative bubble as a situation in which news of price increases spurs investor enthusiasm, which spreads by psychological contagion from person to person, in the process amplifying stories that might justify the price increases, and bringing in a larger and larger class of investors who, despite doubts about the real value of an investment, are drawn to it partly by envy of others' successes and partly through a gamblers' excitement. The main technical graph represents a value of S&P500 Index in Gold troy ounces (current value 1.81 at time of writing this article), indicates that effusive Bull stock market goes collapsing. -- Best wishes, Your Beloved @PandorraResearch Team 😎
SP:SPX
by PandorraResearch
March Was Boring. April Could BiteMarch Was Boring. April Could Bite | SPX Analysis 02 April 2025 At the risk of sounding like a scratched CD (or whatever the Spotify kids call repetition), yes – I’m still bearish. Some might say I’m stubborn. I say I just know a pattern when I see one. And while March was about as exciting as watching paint dry in slow motion on a frozen chart... April's already teased a shift. Tuesday’s 0-DTE win added a bit of grease to the gears – finally. Movement. Profit. Action. But I’m not celebrating yet. My stance is clear: bullish above 5700, bearish below. Until we break out, I’m scanning for pulse bar setups, especially if price cracks below 5500 – that’s where things get spicy. And with Friday’s NFP looming on the calendar, the market may be about to wake up and pick a direction. I know which way I’m leaning. Bear slippers are still on. --- Why April Could Be a Whole New Beast Here’s the rundown: March = sideways snoozefest. April = already triggered a 0-DTE win. My trigger line for flipping bull remains 5700 – it’s the GEX flip, flag failure, and no-go zone. I’m watching for bearish pulse bars, ideally on: Morning setups Under 5500 With volatility in play Should we crack those levels with strong momentum, I’ll look to compound into existing bear swings, leaning on the mechanical setups that’ve done the job before. This week’s X-factor? Friday’s Non-Farm Payroll report. Could be a nothing-burger. Could be the matchstick that lights the whole thing up. Either way, I’ll be ready. --- Expert Insights – Don’t Let Boredom Trade for You One of the most common trader traps? Forcing trades when the market isn’t doing anything. Here’s how to avoid it: ✅ Patience is a position. Waiting for clarity is a valid strategy. I didn’t force anything through March – and I’m better for it. ✅ Setups still work – just less frequently. Your system isn’t broken… the market was just asleep. ✅ The pros aren’t hunting trades every day – they’re waiting for the ones worth taking. That’s how the SPX Income System works – clear triggers, no second-guessing. --- Fun Fact - April: Historically Strong… Unless March Fails First The month of April is historically one of the strongest for the S&P 500, averaging gains of 1.5% since 1950. But guess what? Most of that strength happens after a strong March. When March is slow or bearish… April tends to flip the script. So don’t be surprised if volatility roars back this week – just be ready. --- Video & Audio Podcast Coming Soon on main blog... Happy trading, Phil Less Brain, More Gain …and may your trades be smoother than a cashmere codpiece --- p.s. Ready to stop scratching your head and start stacking profits? If you want to trade with clarity – not confusion – then it’s time to get serious about structure. Join the Fast Forward Mentorship – trade live, twice a week, with me and the crew. PLUS Monthly on-demand 1-2-1's Or watch the free training to see the SPX Income System in action. No fluff. Just profits, pulse bars, and patterns that actually work. Links In Bio
SP:SPXShort
by MrPhilNewton
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for April 2, 2025 🔮 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍: 🇺🇸📈 President Trump’s 'Liberation Day' Tariff Announcement: President Donald Trump is set to announce new reciprocal tariffs on April 2, aiming to align U.S. import duties with those imposed by other countries on American goods. This move is expected to impact various sectors, including automotive and manufacturing, and may lead to market volatility as investors react to potential shifts in trade policies. ​ 📊 Key Data Releases 📊 📅 Wednesday, April 2: 🏭 Factory Orders (10:00 AM ET): Forecast: 0.6%​ Previous: 1.7%​ Indicates the dollar level of new orders for both durable and non-durable goods, reflecting manufacturing demand.​ ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.​ 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
S&P500 Last time it made that bottom was 18 months ago.S&P500 / US500 is trading inside a multi year Channel Up that goes back to October 2022. The index almost hit the Channel bottom this week and immediately we see a rebound attempt. It may be under the 1week MA50 but this is not disastrous as the patterns last bottom was formed exactly under it on October 23rd 2023, 18 months ago. On top of that, the 1week RSI was exactly where it is now, on the 40.00 Support, bearish enough to call for a long term buy. In addition, the both bearish waved leading to both bottoms were almost -11%. This high symmetry potential suggests that the bullish wave that will follow may be of a similar +28.34% rise. This is a unique opportunity to buy and target 7000. Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
TVC:SPXLong
by TheCryptagon
I spy an Evening Star Doji on SPXso alot is going on. when we gapped up and ran nonstop 3/25-3/26, i decided to look for reversal signals. tues was a tight range. it formed a doji; which was suspect. the move below the open print today was the second. and now i see we are up on a tweet and a prayer. this 3 candlestick pattern confirms that. however... the higher timeframes are in a wide range. so, if we reverse the bearish candlestick >5720 i believe we can retrace a bit... maybe revisit the sell fell off area. ***to invalidate the sell trigger, we need to bet above the doji. ***if we do keep rocking and rolling... note this area. it is an unfilled gap as of now. if it gaps down, wait to see how 1st 15-30mins react. looks like ES-emini gapped down a bit. that may be it, but this is an A+ set up for a trip back to take out short term lows at least. tootles! For more on the pattern... I love the breakdown/visual provided here: alchemymarkets.com
SP:SPXShort
by mommymiles
2
Don’t Let a Green Candle Fool YouDon’t Let a Green Candle Fool You | SPX Analysis 01 April 2025 We got the “boing” – but not the bounce that changes anything meaningful. Monday opened like a trap door - gap down, quick poke near 5500, and then a full day of rallying that had CNBC anchors high-fiving like they just called the bottom of the century. Except… they didn’t. We’ve seen this act before. One-day rallies that puff up like a balloon, then vanish. And just like before, I’m not chasing a single green candle or headline optimism. I’m not a bull until 5700 is reclaimed - simple as that. That’s the bear flag failure point, the GEX pivot, and my personal line in the sand. So while the crowd celebrates a maybe-double-bottom, I’m keeping my slippers firmly on the bear side of the wardrobe. And if Monday proved anything, it’s this… Sometimes, the trades you forget about end up being the ones that pay. This Bounce Doesn’t Fool Me – Here's Why I’m Still Short Let’s call it what it is: a rally inside a bearish structure. Until we break the top of that structure, it’s just noise. Here’s what really matters: Monday gapped down, dropped toward 5500, and then staged a rally. Everyone’s calling “double bottom!” - but I’ve seen more convincing bottoms on a bowling ball. These reversal days have been common lately – I counted five in the last six weeks. We’re still under 5700, which is the GEX flip, the flag failure, and the bullish invalidation. That means I’m still riding: Bear Swing #1 – opened last week, still on. New aggressive shorts – 10-min bearish Tag ‘n Turn below 5500 only. Bonus: A Forgotten Trade Hit Target on Monday You’ll love this. I had a bearish swing from around 20 March. Honestly, I forgot about it. Wrote it off. It was gathering dust in the corner of my options book. Then, boom – Monday open… "Order Filled". Target hit. Gap did the job. Payout in the pocket. It’s a reminder every trader needs: “It ain’t over until expiration… and sometimes not even then.” GEX Analysis Update Whole and half numbers acting as support and resistance Expert Insights:  Avoid These Rookie Mistakes ❌ Mistake #1: Getting Sucked Into Green Candles Just because the market bounced doesn’t mean it’s time to flip bull. Watch the levels, not your feelings. ❌ Mistake #2: Cancelling Too Early  The Trade’s Not Over Just Because You’re Bored Most traders kill good trades because they get impatient. They cancel too soon. They “manage the trade” to death. Or worse, they chase a green candle and flip bias on a whim. Here’s what Monday reminded us: ✅ Let the trade breathe. That bear swing from 20 March? Forgotten. Ignored. Hit target anyway. ✅ Stick to your plan, not your mood. The market rallied. But did it change the structure? No. Still below 5700. Still bearish bias. ✅ A good trade doesn’t need your babysitting. Set the rules. Place the trade. Walk away. Check back later with a smile. The traders who win are the ones who stop trying to outsmart their own system. --- Fun Fact In 1999, a 15-year-old stock trader named Jonathan Lebed made over $800,000 pumping penny stocks from his bedroom... before the SEC came knocking. Moral of the story? Markets will always reward confidence, consistency, and a little bit of cunning – but it’s the trader who sticks to a rule-based system who lasts beyond the headlines.
SP:SPXShort
by MrPhilNewton
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for April 1, 2025🔮 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍: 🇺🇸📈 ISM Manufacturing PMI Release: The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will release its Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for March. A reading below 50 indicates contraction in the manufacturing sector, which could influence market sentiment.​ 🇺🇸🏗️ Construction Spending Data: The U.S. Census Bureau will report on February's construction spending, providing insights into the health of the construction industry and potential impacts on related sectors.​ 🇺🇸📄 Job Openings Report: The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for February will be released, offering a view into labor demand and potential implications for wage growth and consumer spending.​ 📊 Key Data Releases 📊 📅 Tuesday, April 1: 🏭 ISM Manufacturing PMI (10:00 AM ET): Forecast: 49.5%​ Previous: 50.3% Assesses the health of the manufacturing sector; a reading below 50% suggests contraction.​ 🏗️ Construction Spending (10:00 AM ET): Forecast: 0.3%​ Previous: -0.2%​ Measures the total value of construction work done; indicates trends in the construction industry.​ 📄 Job Openings (10:00 AM ET): Forecast: 7.7 million​ Previous: 7.7 million​ Provides insight into labor market demand by reporting the number of job vacancies.​ ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.​ 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
Moderna. Why Anti-Covid19 Juggernaut Goes 'The Bloodmachine'It's gone 5 years or so... (Duh..? 5 years, really? 🥴) since everyone was talking about COVID-19 pandemic, vaccines, "world will never be the same again", and so on. - And now?.. - It's gone. It's absolutely gone..! Since nothing last forever and no one should chase a feather, or dust in the wind. This is why we at our 💖Super-Duper Beloved @PandorraResearch Team decided to build this idea, as a educational idea to learn, even this story is about single Moderna stock, and we have reasonable considerations about fundamental, technical and price movement perspectives. Well.. Let's the story begin... Over the past few years, Moderna's stock has experienced a significant decline, primarily due to several key factors. Here's a detailed explanation of why Moderna's stock has been moving downward: 1. Declining Demand for COVID-19 Vaccine The primary reason for Moderna's stock decline is the waning demand for COVID-19 vaccines. During the pandemic, Moderna's mRNA-based vaccine was one of the first and most widely used, leading to a surge in sales and profitability. However, as the pandemic transitioned into an endemic phase, demand for vaccines decreased substantially. This shift has resulted in declining sales for Moderna, impacting its revenue and profitability. 2. Sales Guidance and Performance In recent years, Moderna has faced challenges in meeting sales expectations. For instance, in 2025, the company forecasted sales between $1.5 billion and $2.5 billion, which was significantly lower than analysts' expectations of around $2.9 billion. This discrepancy led to a sharp decline in stock prices as investors became increasingly pessimistic about the company's future growth prospects. 3. Cost-Cutting Measures To mitigate the impact of declining sales, Moderna has implemented cost-cutting measures. The company plans to reduce its cash operating costs by $1 billion in 2025 and an additional $500 million in 2026. While these efforts aim to improve profitability, they also reflect the challenges Moderna faces in maintaining its financial health without strong vaccine sales. 4. Competition in New Market s Moderna is expanding into new markets, such as the respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccine space, with its product mResvia. However, this market is highly competitive, with established players like Pfizer and GSK already present. The competition and uncertainty about market share have contributed to investor skepticism about Moderna's ability to drive growth through new products. 5. Delayed Break-Even Point Initially, Moderna aimed to break even on an operating cash cost basis by 2026. However, this goal has been pushed back to 2028, indicating a slower-than-expected transition to profitability. This delay has further eroded investor confidence in the company's ability to execute its strategic plans effectively. 6. Valuation and Market Performance Moderna's stock has underperformed both the industry and the broader market. The stock trades below its 200-day and 50-day moving averages, reflecting a lack of momentum. Additionally, Moderna's price-to-sales ratio is lower than the industry average, which might suggest undervaluation but also indicates a lack of investor enthusiasm for the stock. 7. Analyst Sentiment and Profitability Forecasts Analysts have become increasingly pessimistic about Moderna's prospects, with many not expecting the company to turn profitable again until at least 2029. This negative outlook has contributed to the downward pressure on the stock. Furthermore, estimates for loss per share have increased, reinforcing the bearish sentiment among investors. In summary, Moderna's stock decline is primarily driven by declining vaccine demand, missed sales expectations, increased competition in new markets, delayed profitability, and negative analyst sentiment. While the company is taking steps to adapt to these challenges, the path to recovery remains uncertain, contributing to ongoing investor skepticism. -- Best 'No more Covid' wishes, @PandorraResearch Team 😎
NASDAQ:MRNA
by PandorraResearch
1
S&P500 during TRUMP's 2018 vs 2025 TRADE WAR.The S&P500 index (SPX) has started off the year in disappointing fashion as since mid-February the market has corrected by over -10% and of course almost all of it is attributed to the trade tariffs imposed by President Trump. As you know, this is not the first time Trump goes into a Trade War. The 1st has started in January 2018 when the first tariff announcements were made against China. We can say that Trump's 2nd Trade War officially started on March 03 2025, with tariff implementations against Mexico, Canada and China. As you can see, the build up to both Trade Wars has been identical both in structural price count and in 1W RSI terms. By the week of February 05 2018, the index has dropped by a little over -11%, hit the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level and rebounded, while the 1W RSI formed a Lower Low. We can claim that this are roughly the levels we are now. That drop started a Megaphone pattern, which ran through all of 2018. The ultimate bottom for this Megaphone Trade War pattern came in December 24 2018 on the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line). Right now, the 1W RSI is almost on Lower Lows while crossing below its 1W MA50 and what remains to be seen is if it will hit its 0.236 Fib to form the bottom of the Megaphone or will rebound now. Do you think Trump's 2nd Trade War will keep the market highly volatile within a Megaphone or will plunge it even more? ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:SPX
by TradingShot
8
Bear Hedge Trigger Hit - It’s Risk-Off This WeekBear Hedge Trigger Hit - It’s Risk-Off This Week | SPX Analysis 31 Mar 2025 Well, it’s officially the start of a new week... and the end of the month. A time when markets often go a bit boing-boing as portfolio managers do their monthly “window dressing.” But let’s not get distracted by the glitter - Friday’s price action just ripped the rug out from under the bulls. My SPX slippers barely had time to get comfy before I was forced to swap them for spiked bear boots. Again. Friday’s break through my bear hedge trigger flipped the script, and now I’m locked into bear mode until the charts convince me otherwise. And right now? They’re not even trying. --- Bear Flag Breakdown: What the Charts Are Screaming 🐻 Let’s break it down trader-to-trader... Friday’s move confirmed the break of a textbook bear flag. My target for this bear swing now sits at 5140, and unless we break above 5700, the bear case remains fully intact. Short-term? I'm bearish through 5500, watching 5555 as a gamma inflection point which could accelerate the bear move. Here’s what makes this particularly spicy: Overnight futures are down nearly 1% - not the Monday morning bounce you’d expect if bulls were in charge. GEX is stacked with puts - if we breach 5555, market makers may accelerate the drop by hedging and reducing positive gamma exposure. Momentum is gaining. And it feels like we’ve seen this film before... 🎞️ Rewind to 2022… Remember that slow grind lower in 2022 where every bounce got sold, and traders kept trying to “buy the dip” only to get steamrolled? Yeah. This move is shaping up the same way. A pattern break. A bearish continuation. And if we follow the 2022 script... buckle up. The bears may just be getting started, and the rest of the year could get nasty. --- Expert Insights: Avoid These Bear Market Mistakes 🔻 Mistake #1: Trading What You Hope Will Happen Stop “buying the dip” because you want it to bounce. Trade what’s in front of you. 🔻 Mistake #2: Using the Wrong System for This Environment Bullish systems don’t work in bear trends. You need a mechanical system that thrives on volatility (like mine). --- Fun Fact In 2018, the S&P 500 plunged nearly 20% in December alone, marking one of the worst year-end sell-offs in history. The culprit? A mix of Fed tightening and market-wide panic. 🧐 Fast forward to today… and while the catalyst may differ, market structure patterns have a funny way of rhyming, don’t they?
SP:SPXShort
by MrPhilNewton