We Have a Full Pattern into The Target BoxI am now looking for a 5-wave pattern to develop to the downside, followed by a 3-wave retrace, that in the coming weeks can take us back out of the Target box to the downside. Price must breach the 5578 area to give us any indication the pattern to the upside below is cracking.
SPX (S&P 500 Index)
$SPY still bearish unless $584 and trendline break as resistanceI'll be the first to admit that the rally has gone further than I expected. That said, everything on the chart still looks like this is a bearish rally and not a new bull trend.
Unless we can break the blue trend line and the strong overhead resistance between $581.63 and $583.57, I think the most likely scenario is we fall further and see one last leg down before we bottom.
I think the bottom will come between the lower supports at $409 and $538.
Again, invalidation of the bearish idea is a break and flip of the resistances above, the upside targets are on the chart as well.
Let's see what happens over the coming weeks.
SPX: US-China tariffs talkOne of the most important weekly events was the FOMC meeting, where its members held the interest rates unchanged for one more time. Many analysts are in agreement that the Fed made the right decision, without jumping-into-conclusion regarding the potential negative effects of trade tariffs. However, this topic was addressed by the Fed Chair Powell, at his after-the-meeting address to the public, where he noted a confidence that the Fed will react immediately in case that stronger negative effects of trade tariffs reflect in the economy. Here, he noted once again the dual mandate of the Fed - to keep full unemployment and inflation at the targeted 2%. The market reacted positively to his speech, bringing the US equity markets to the higher levels. The S&P 500 gained during the week, from 5.586 to 5.713. However, Friday's trading session was with a negative sentiment, considering forthcoming US-China tariffs talk, expected to start soon.
At the same time, the US managed to settle trade tariffs at the level of 10% with the United Kingdom. Analysts are commenting that this might be a general level for the majority of other countries. However, the US President published on social networks that he hopes to settle tariffs with China at 80%, which is still too high. Considering forthcoming talks between two governments and also taking into account that China is one of the most important trading partners with the US, the market sensitivity will continue to be in an on-off mode. This means that the market volatility will most certainly continue in the coming period.
Overnight Futures Pop 2.8% on Surprise Tariff TruceYou either woke up to a panic… or to a profit.
This morning, markets are ripping higher - not because of earnings, not because of data - but because two superpowers shook hands over fondue in Switzerland.
If you're feeling blindsided, you probably chased last week’s noise.
If you're feeling calm, you’re probably following the AntiVestor way.
---
SPX Market Briefing
The headlines are loud. So let’s talk facts.
Over the weekend, the United States and China agreed to a 90-day tariff rollback:
US duties drop from 145% to 30%
China drops theirs from 125% to 10%
Both sides now pretending to like each other until mid-August
Markets reacted the only way they know how: with euphoria.
SPX futures are up 2.8%. Nasdaq is flying. The Dow surged more than 900 points premarket.
Here’s what we did:
Nothing reckless. Nothing oversized. Nothing emotional.
The system turned bearish late last week, and we followed it - small, tactical, mechanical. Not a bet. Just a position.
And here’s the kicker:
I still held a few bullish positions from the prior bias. They were so far out-of-the-money, I didn’t even bother closing them.
Guess what?
They’re in profit - and my net exposure is green despite the initial bear swing going underwater.
So while the news makes others overreact, we get to do what we always do:
Let the market come to us.
The real money isn’t made chasing this 2.8% pop.
It’s made waiting for the next confirmed setup.
...and a little good luck always helps ;)
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Expert Insights:
Mistake: Jumping into emotional gap openings
AntiVestor Fix: Let others panic. Let your system speak.
Gap moves on news tend to retrace or fade - and even if they don't, entering late is a coin toss. Smart traders wait. Pros wait. We wait.
---
Rumour Has It…
Whispers from the Swiss hotel bar claim the entire US-China agreement was sparked when both delegates reached for the same dessert spoon. One espresso and a bottle of Pinot later, tariffs were slashed and SPX gapped 2.8%.
This is entirely made-up satire. Probably!
Breaking scoops courtesy of the Financial Nuts Newswire-because who needs sanity?
Fun Fact
According to CBOE data, Monday gap-ups following geopolitical “resolutions” average a +2.2% open… but only hold those gains 41% of the time by Friday’s close. Which means chasing the open? Not your best trade. Waiting for follow-through? That’s the edge.
Cautious Optimism: What’s Next for the S&P 500US500 My Outlook for the Next Week:
Given the relentless bullishness on the chart and the current backdrop, here’s how I see the next week playing out:
Short-Term: The S&P 500 may continue to consolidate or experience mild pullbacks as investors digest recent gains and await fresh catalysts. Sector rotation could create choppiness, especially if tech underperforms.
Catalysts: Watch for key economic data (inflation, employment, Fed commentary) and any major earnings surprises. These could trigger renewed momentum or a sharper correction.
Risk/Reward: The risk of a sharp correction is rising, but the underlying trend remains bullish unless there’s a significant negative surprise. A shallow pullback or sideways action would be healthy and could set up the next leg higher if fundamentals remain intact.
In summary: The S&P 500’s relentless bullishness is being tested by mixed sentiment and cautious analyst forecasts. Fundamentals are still supportive, but risks are rising. For the next week, expect consolidation or mild volatility, with the potential for renewed upside if economic data and earnings remain strong. Stay nimble, watch for sector rotation, and be prepared for both short-term pullbacks and longer-term opportunities.
Not financial advice.
SPX500 SLOWS DOWN AT BEARISH ORDER BLOCK!With SPX500 index slowing down at the bearish order block, the next trading week most likely will be bearish...
N.B!
- SPX500 price might not follow the drawn lines . Actual price movements may likely differ from the forecast.
- Let emotions and sentiments work for you
- ALWAYS Use Proper Risk Management In Your Trades
#spx
#spx500
#es
$SPX Urgent! My <3 & My Soul: Slow Bleed Crash to 3k by Q4 26' Do be warned. Very important post here. I put my heart and soul into this. I made a video earlier and then it got deleted by accident, so I made a less happy one right after. I've got news for all the bulls and investors out there that feel they will be able to continue buying every single dip out there. Get ready for the dip that keeps dipping. Big names already cracking heavy. NASDAQ:META NASDAQ:TSLA NASDAQ:AMD NASDAQ:NVDA to name a few. Big tech is getting cleaned out and layoffs are on the rise. Tariffs create huge amounts of uncertainty. I don't feel like this is rocket science. Buffet is all cash. 89% of Hedge Fund managers believe the US market is the most expensive its ever been and Tutes have been selling at the highest rate ever before. I think it's time the US finally gets a shake down. Bullish conditioning has been running rampant, and I've seen Social Media Accounts discourage charting and only paying attention to price action? Price action involves the entire collective, not just one Timeframe. Anyways, here's an overlay from 01' ... the only one I could find that matches. Says short 560 around May 7th and then take profits around 500 again. Let's make this a nice one. Calls till 560 into May then flip to Puts into June. From then short 530 every time you can. $450 is My first target after we break previous lows. I will update as we go. Have a good one yall.
Trade Idea: $MSFT Short to $418 and beyond into JuneTriple bearish divergence is evident on Volume, RSI, and Momentum. The 9-count sell signal on the daily chart further supports the likelihood of a sell-off at this point. If the price falls below $425, a swift decline to $418 is anticipated, where the true test of the Fair Value Gap (FVG) below will occur. The Fair Value Gap open is at $392.45. Stop would be above yesterday's high at $439.50 ...
May 9th Trade Journal & Stock Market AnalysisEOD accountability report: +440
Sleep: 6 hour, Overall health: :thumbsup:
I have been traveling the last few days and didn't have a chance to trade. just finally catching up on things again and getting hte videos out.
Daily Trade recap based on VX Algo System
— 9:44 AM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3!
— 10:30 AM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3!
— 1:10 PM VXAlgo ES X1 Buy signal
— 2:09 PM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3!
— 2:10 PM VXAlgo NQ X1 Sell Signal
Next day plan--> Over 5650 = Bullish, Under 5650 = Bearish
Video Recaps -->https://www.tradingview.com/u/WallSt007/#published-charts
SPY (S&P500 ETF) - Testing Key Resistance Levels - Weekly ChartSPY (S&P500 ETF) is currently attempting an uptrend rally, bouncing up from the April 7th 2025 support level ($488) and weekly support trendline.
The current resistance price level is $569 above, and the support price level below is $555.
SPY price needs to remain and close above $522 in May 2025 to maintain the current uptrend rally.
Resistance price targets above: $569, $578, $600, $610.
Support price targets below: $555, $542, $533, $512.
Tariff and trade deal news, corporate earnings, government law changes, and consumer sentiment will continue to affect the stock price action of SPY.
Support price levels need to hold for an uptrend to continue in 2025.
S&P 500 Braces for a Drop to $5,100–$5,177: Correction Coming?S&P 500 Braces for a Drop to $5,100–$5,177: Is the Correction Coming?
SP500 Reached the target of $5,680 - $5,800 and is going into correction along with Bitcoin 🤔.
Before:
After:
➖ The S&P 500 could fall to the 5100–5177 range due to the following fundamental factors:
FOMC Meeting on May 7: Expected rate hold and potentially hawkish rhetoric from Powell could amplify fears of rate hikes, hitting growth stocks.
➖ Trade War: Uncertainty in U.S.-China negotiations and risks of new tariffs threaten supply chains and corporate profits.
➖ Weak Economy: GDP contraction (-0.3% in Q1), recession fears, and weak PMI data fuel pessimism.
➖ Corporate Earnings: Disappointing guidance from key companies (e.g., Apple, Tesla) could trigger sell-offs.
➖ Sentiment on X: Bearish sentiment reflects market caution.
➖ Global Risks: Retaliatory tariffs and rising gold prices signal a flight from U.S. assets.
Assumption: If the Fed on May 7 emphasizes inflation risks and delays rate cuts, and tariff news remains negative, the S&P 500 could break support at 5500 and reach 5100–5177 within 1–2 weeks, especially amid technical selling and market panic.
Tag ‘n Turn → Bear Mode EngagedV-Shape Reversal Confirms Short Bias
You ever see a setup pull a fakeout, tease a breakout, then pivot perfectly back into your system?
That was yesterday.
The Tag ‘n Turn gave us another clean swing exit off the upper Bollinger Band, and while I was ready to defer the next entry, a tidy little V-shaped reversal handed us the confirmation we needed. We’re back bearish. Levels are set. Now we let the market do its thing.
---
SPX Market View
Let’s unpack the sequence.
Price ran up into the upper Bollinger Band and triggered the final legs of our overnight swings. That was the cash-out point – system clean, profits booked.
But I wasn’t diving into the next setup just yet.
Why?
Because it looked like the start of a Bollinger breakout – the kind that breaks the pinch and rips higher. So I paused. Waited.
Then came the V-shaped reversal – clear as day within 2 hours.
Entry happened late in the day, around the same level the mechanical Tag ‘n Turn would have fired. No edge lost. Just added confirmation.
Now? The system is officially bearish again, with a firm rejection at highs and a sharp drive lower that flipped the tone of the day and the bias on the chart.
Today’s key levels:
5620 = GEX flip zone
Also where we bounced up post-FOMC
5680 = resistance zone – could mark today’s top
We’re back in the pre-FOMC chop zone.
The plan:
Bearish until price tells us otherwise
Hedge levels marked
No chase
Wait for price to hit our zone
Let the system print
Expert Insights:
Jumping the gun on reversals – wait for structure, not assumptions.
Chasing breakouts too early – pinch points often fake before they break.
Skipping levels – 5620 and 5680 matter. Mark them or risk regret.
Overmanaging overnight trades – exits were planned. Trust the system.
Forcing direction changes – confirmation > prediction. The system knows.
Satirical cartoon showing confirmation over prediction.
Rumour Has It…
Word is the SPX reversal was caused by a rogue intern at the Fed who mistook the breakout chart for a bowl of ramen and tried to stir it with a mouse. After rebooting TradingView, they accidentally submitted a bearish policy note to Bloomberg. The market reversed out of pure confusion.
This is entirely made-up satire. Probably!
Breaking scoops courtesy of the Financial Nuts Newswire-because who needs sanity?
---
Fun Fact
The term “V-shaped reversal” originated in early floor trading days when chalkboard analysts would literally sketch a V on the board as a real-time note to floor brokers. That visual shorthand became one of the most recognized intraday patterns in trading – a pattern that still works in a world of tickers, bots, and zero-DTE.
$SPY Its time according to my chart.. Lower high is the trigger I posted two charts for reference to the current situation. With a historic rally right into resistance and a fractal analog that matches, I have no choice but to remain bearish. These are my studies. Sometimes Impatience leads to things like Impulsive Entries and Exits, Revenge Trading, and at times, even Blown Accounts. Times like those should be followed by a regroup and a reset.
The 9 Count Sell Signal Triggered with a Reset is on Technical Inidators for a move lower. I do believe we are going to consolidate for several days but nothing further than the second week of May. Today Bulls got extremely bullish and still were not able to hold the highs into the close. The test of the 200 day SMA was rejected and several days near these leveles whether above or below, would prove the downside move more possible. The monthly on SPX is my biggest indicator, personally. If it follows the pattern I'm following then after a test of the 10WMA, we will roll back over on the next 10 day candle. The market ran through a death cross without stopping, which if anyone were to study for several minutes, they would be able to see any first attempt at a death cross to the upsde is almost immediately met with a selloff back to the lows of the breakout move. Good luck everybody.
May 8th Trade Journal & Stock Market AnalysisEOD accountability report: +463
Sleep: 6 hour, Overall health: :thumbsup:
I have been traveling the last few days and didn't have a chance to trade. just finally catching up on things again and getting hte videos out.
**Daily Trade recap based on VX Algo System**
— 10:20 AM VXAlgo ES X1 Buy signal (2x signal)
— 11:30 AM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3!
— 12:30 PM VXAlgo ES X1 Sell Signal (2x signal)
— 2:11 PM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3!
— 3:00 PM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3!
Next day plan--> Over 5650 = Bullish, Under 5650 = Bearish
Video Recaps -->https://www.tradingview.com/u/WallSt007/#published-charts
SPX Continues to Rise After FOMC DecisionThe U.S. index has been gaining more than 2% in recent trading sessions, and the bullish bias has remained intact since the Federal Reserve’s decision during yesterday’s session. The central bank once again opted to keep the interest rate steady at 4.5%. However, according to some comments, Chairman Powell mentioned that the economy is approaching a point where it may soon be appropriate to begin cutting interest rates. This has fueled expectations of future rate cuts and has helped sustain confidence in equity indices over the short term.
Uptrend: Since April 9, a new short-term uptrend has been consistently forming, with price movements holding above the 5,000-point mark. However, the price is now approaching a key resistance level, and as long as this barrier holds, it could lead to short-term neutrality in recent price action.
ADX: The ADX line has been falling sharply in recent sessions and is now nearing the neutral 20 level. This indicates a lack of sustained volatility in recent price moves. If the ADX remains at these levels, it could reinforce a period of consolidation or range-bound movement in the short term.
RSI: The RSI line remains consistently above the neutral 50 mark, indicating that buying momentum still dominates in the short term. However, as the RSI approaches the overbought level near 70, this could open the door for short-term bearish corrections.
Key Levels:
5,750 points – Nearby resistance: This level coincides with the 200-period simple moving average. A breakout above this zone could strengthen the bullish bias and support a more sustained uptrend.
5,540 points – Nearby support: This level aligns with the 50-period moving average and may serve as a potential zone for bearish corrections to unfold.
5,370 points – Critical support: This level aligns with the short-term ascending trendline. A drop below this support could jeopardize the current bullish structure in the short term.
Written by Julian Pineda, CFA – Market Analyst
Up-a-Bar, Down-a-Bar? Sorted.Gap Higher Into 5700 Heat
Ever make a tiny tweak to your bias, ignore the noise, and then watch the market validate every inch of it?
That’s the vibe this morning.
Yesterday’s post-FOMC tag of the lower Bollinger Band confirmed the mechanical turn, and if you’ve been following along, that means our bullish bias got an official upgrade. Futures are already up 60 points overnight, price is lifting into the 5700 zone, and yes… that broken wing butterfly we placed in the slop is now basking in the spotlight.
Didn’t catch the full breakdown of that clean +98.1% ROC win? You should. Because boring trades print – and this one did just that.
---
SPX Market View
Let’s talk about the move we didn’t miss.
We spotted the sideways chop. The indecision. The textbook “up-a-bar, down-a-bar” noise. But instead of guessing direction into FOMC chaos, we made a minor but vital adjustment:
Bullish above 5600. Stay mechanical. Stay patient.
That call aged well.
FOMC came and went with all the urgency of a soggy biscuit. The lower Bollinger Band tag arrived right on cue, and with overnight futures up strong, we’re sitting in validation territory.
Now today? 5700 becomes the zone of truth.
It’s the GEX cluster.
It’s the high of the week. (so far)
It’s where a gap-and-go or gap-and-fade could unfold.
If price breaks clean, we could see new highs forming into the weekend. If not, expect a choppy pullback from the open before things stabilise.
Either way…
Already in swings. Already got B&B on. No need to chase.
Let the market come to us.
This is why structure wins.
Expert Insights:
Flipping bias mid-chop – let price confirm. Don’t front-run.
Forcing entries post-gap – wait for structure, not speed.
Ignoring prior levels – 5700 is loaded. Watch for traps.
Missing the post-review edge – yesterday’s trade gives today’s confidence.
Chasing noise into FOMC hangovers – let the dust settle before committing.
---
Rumour Has It…
Apparently, the Fed’s post-FOMC statement was originally just a shrug emoji and the word “meh” repeated 17 times. When asked to elaborate, the AI bot in charge blinked twice and played a jazz loop. Traders remain unsure if it was dovish or just tired.
This is entirely made-up satire. Probably!
Breaking scoops courtesy of the Financial Nuts Newswire-because who needs sanity?
---
Fun Fact
In 1983, the S&P 500 posted its largest one-day post-Fed reversal at the time, rallying over 3% after a morning selloff – all while inflation was double digits and headlines screamed chaos.
The takeaway? News means nothing if your setup is clean and your risk is defined. The same edge applies today.
S&P500: Hit its 4H MA50. Can it provide a price push?S&P500 (SPX) is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 52.949, MACD = 19.450, ADX = 31.038) as the index just hit its 4H MA50, which is holding since April 22nd. This is at the bottom of the 4H Channel Up so as long as it holds, the signal is bullish. In the meantime the index again hit the P1 level, which was previously a Resistance. As long as this demand zone holds, we are aiming at the R2 level (TP = 5,790).
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5600: Bullish Border or Bear Trap?Theta’s Working. Setup’s Lurking.
This market’s behaving like it needs a reboot. We’ve got the classic tag‑n‑turn setup doing a dodgy impression of itself-upper band got touched, but instead of a clean pivot, we’ve now got a bearish pulse bar flashing and a near‑miss on the lower Bollinger Band. It’s like waiting for a bus, getting two at once, and realising they’re both headed to “Confusion Junction.”
So here’s the deal: 5600 is now the cliff edge. Stay above, and we’ve got some bullish life. Drop below, and we’re in breakdown city. If you’re testing the waters today, keep it light. FOMC is on deck, and that alone can whiplash any intraday idea straight off your charts.
Meanwhile, theta quietly does its work in the background, even if price action’s stuck in a tight horizontal fog. And for the more cautious of you yes, we’re experimenting with broken wing butterflies as a way to lean into the system without going full throttle. More on that in today’s Fast Forward call.
---
SPX Market View
Let’s break down the weirdness.
We’re in a mechanical tag‑n‑turn, but it’s misbehaving.
Usually, the upper Bollinger Band tap sets off a swift reversal. But this time? We got the tag… and then nothing. Just sideways drift. Until yesterday, that is, when bear pulse bars flickered in, suggesting sellers might finally be stretching their legs.
Now? We’re hovering just shy of a lower Bollinger Band tag, with the bands pinching tighter than a miser’s wallet. This setup is usually the calm before either a surge—or a slip.
Enter the line: 5600.
• Above 5600: bull bias stays alive.
• Below 5600: breakdown setup gets the greenlight.
The GEX crowd seems to be repositioning slightly, but the main range remains intact. Volatility premiums are compressing again, suggesting the real move hasn’t triggered yet.
If you’re risk‑curious but cautious, broken wing butterflys are worth exploring. By placing your risk off-centre, you create room to collect theta while limiting max damage if direction gets wonky. I’ve been testing it in real-time, and I’ll share specifics on today’s mentorship call.
And then, of course, we’ve got the FOMC main session coming up.
If that makes your stomach churn—don’t trade it. Watch it. Tomorrow’s another day. No one gets a prize for being caught on the wrong side of a news candle.
---
Expert Insights:
Assuming a tag means turn – the tag-n-turn isn’t magic. Wait for confirmation.
Forcing trades around news events – FOMC days don’t need your capital.
Underestimating sideways risk – no trend doesn’t mean no danger.
Skipping risk-defined plays – BWB’s give breathing room when setups are unclear.
Failing to adjust bias – bullish and bearish both live here—bias must shift with price.
---
Rumour Has It…
A mysterious algorithm known only as “TurnTagger X” is reportedly running its own contrarian SPX strategy. It waits for tag-n-turn setups-then does the exact opposite, cackling through your stops. One trader claims it’s powered by caffeine, salt, and old Janet Yellen quotes. Could be hedge fund AI… or just your broker’s cat walking on the keyboard.
This is entirely made-up satire. Probably!
Breaking scoops courtesy of the Financial Nuts Newswire-because who needs sanity?
AI-Powered ETFs Go on Strike
A rogue batch of AI ETFs issued a joint statement this morning refusing to rebalance “until humans stop panic-buying tops.” BlackRock is reportedly negotiating with a mediator chatbot named GaryBot-9000.
Retail Traders Launch ‘NapMap’ App
After months of whipsaw hell, Reddit traders launched NapMap – a tool that identifies the safest hours to sleep through “algorithmic tantrums.” It’s already outperforming the S&P.
CBOE Announces ‘Calm VIX’
The Chicago Board of Exchange revealed its newest product: a “Calm VIX” that tracks how unbothered markets pretend to be. Readings are currently at ‘Zen Master’ despite 4 black swans circling the drain.
This is entirely made-up satire. Probably!
Breaking scoops courtesy of the Financial Nuts Newswire-because who needs sanity?
---
Fun Fact
The phrase “broken wing butterfly” comes from aviation-not options. Pilots once used the term to describe asymmetric recovery manoeuvres. Traders later borrowed it to describe strategies with off-centre risk profiles-ideal when you expect range but want room for error.
Bonus trivia: the strategy can be structured for credit or debit, making it one of the few “choose-your-own-adventure” plays in options.
Cartoon metaphor for using broken wing butterflys in volatile markets.
Looking for One More High So far, our minor B wave price action has not thrown us any curveballs, which is somewhat unusual considering B waves can become very complex. As I get into the micro price action, this pattern would fit better completed with at least one more high.
Nonetheless, I will offer a warning, we are in the target box...if you are long, please use stops, and make sure your position size is risk managed.
Best to all,
Chris
S&P500 Stuck between the 1D MA50 and 1D MA200.The S&P500 index (SPX) is now on a short-term correction following the impressive recovery of the last 30 days that made it almost test its 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). This is a technical rejection but the fact that the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) is now the Support can be encouraging.
The reason is that since January 2023, every time the index broke above its 1D MA50 it turned into a Support that held and produced an immediate bullish extension on every occasion except for one time (Sep 2024), which still recovered 1 week after.
As a result, it is more likely for SPX to test its All Time High (ATH) by July than entering a long-term correction again.
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May 6, 2025 - Markets Hold Their Breath Before Powell SpeaksHello everyone, it’s May 6, 2025 and markets are once again at the mercy of politics, Powell, and presidential mood swings.
After a 9-day rally, U.S. markets finally took a breather yesterday, with mild profit-taking ahead of the much-anticipated Federal Reserve decision. Investors are caught between two competing visions: Trump’s push for massive rate cuts, insisting inflation is a myth cooked up by bureaucrats, and Powell’s more sober stance acknowledging inflation isn’t dead, the economy is softening, and premature easing could trigger full-blown stagflation.
With Friday’s job report stronger than expected, Powell is expected to hold rates steady, staying cautious while tariffs and growth clouds loom. Markets are pricing in a July cut at best, but uncertainty lingers mostly around what Trump might tweet in reaction to Powell’s speech tomorrow night.
Meanwhile, despite the 90-day tariff moratorium, the trade war narrative hasn’t vanished. NYSE:F suspended its 2025 outlook, citing $1.5 billion in expected tariff costs and four major risks: disrupted supply chains, retaliatory measures, unclear tax policies, and emission rules. NASDAQ:MAT is also hedging its bets shifting production out of China and pausing forecasts, while begging for zero tariffs on toys “for the kids.” Their stocks dropped modestly after hours.
OANDA:XAUUSD surged again to $3,368, as fear and safe-haven demand ticked up. BLACKBULL:WTI rebounded to over $58 following an OPEC statement, helping airline stocks breathe a bit. BINANCE:BTCUSDT continued its meteoric rise, now sitting around $94,400.
On the macro front, inflation data like CPI and PPI are being shrugged off everyone’s waiting to see if Powell plays ball with Trump. There’s hope, too, that all this chaos is just Trump’s way of muscling the world into negotiation especially China and if a “deal” emerges, markets could rip higher. Until then, we’re stuck dancing between uncertainty and hope.
Asia opened strong this morning, led by China’s cautious optimism. Futures point slightly lower in the U.S., and volatility remains king. The Fed could flip the script tomorrow or keep us hanging. Stay buckled in.