Can you envision S&P500 at 20k? This is why most investors fail!If you follow us through all those years then you know how fond we are of long-term patterns. Especially those of a multi-year perspective that can offer maximum reliability and as close to a flowless projection as it can get.
The current chart (1M time-frame) on the S&P500 index (SPX) is no exception and you might be no strangers to it as we've published it on April 10 2024 (see chart below) when the price was still at 5200 (against 5700 now):
That was at a time of high market uncertainty after a strong start to the year and as we were entering the bearish seasonality of Summer. This rise however should come as no surprise to those that can read charts and market behavior objectively. As we mentioned at the time, this is a long-term perspective that gives you the picture unfiltered with the facts only.
What you see on this chart is S&P's Cycle Analysis on a century wide scale from the rally in 1921 that led to the Great Depression. Since that 'mother of all recessions', the stock market started to create a pattern of clear systemic behaviors. Each time there are fundamentals involved that merely serve as 'reasons/ excuses' to fill out and complete this pattern.
** Great Depression: 1st Bull Cycle **
Following the 1932 Great Depression bottom, the 1st Secular Bull Cycle begun, that lasted for 28.5 years (343 months) rising by +1888%. Then the Secular Bear Cycle started in the form of a Megaphone pattern. Its 1st Low was formed below the 1M MA100 (green trend-line) and the 2nd Low (the Cycle's bottom) was formed below the 1M MA200 (orange trend-line).
** Vietnam War to High Inflation: 2nd Bull Cycle **
The 2nd Secular Bull Cycle lasted for almost 26 years (311 months) and saw +2361% growth. As per our blueprint, the Secular Bear Cycle was initiated once the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line) broke. Again the 1st Low was formed below the 1M MA100 and the 2nd Low below the 1M MA200.
** Post 2008 Housing Crisis: 3rd Bull Cycle **
With regards to the current Cycle, which is what most are interested at naturally, notice how the 1M MA50 has been supporting since late 2011. It emphatically held both on the September 2022 Low (Inflation crisis bottom) and the March 2020 Low (COVID crash bottom). This indicates again that as long as it supports, the Secular Bull Cycle will be extended.
Based on the previous Cycle-to-Cycle parameters the model suggests that the current Cycle should be a little than 23 years long (279 months, i.e. 32 month shorter than the previous) and rise by +2834% (+473% higher than the previous).
That gives us a rough target for the S&P500 of around 20000 estimated to take place by 2032!
** New updates: Price and Time Fibonacci levels **
What we've added on the current updated analysis relative to the on in April 2024, are the Fibonacci levels both on the x (time) and y (price) axis.
As you can see, the S&P is currently exactly on the 0.618 Fib price axis and between the 0.618 - 0.786 Fib time axis. That is a highly symmetric correlation with roughly the year 1992, right at the start of the Dotcom Bubble that led to the 2000 burst and subsequent crisis. The index was again on the 0.618 Fib price axis and within the 0.618 - 0.786 Fib time axis.
** Is A.I. the new Dotcom? **
It was the Internet Mania that accelerated the 1974 - 2000 Bull Cycle to its peak and this time it may be the A.I./ Blockchain/ Crypto etc Mania that may aggressively lead the current (2009 - 2032) Bull Cycle to the next Great Recession. Note that just like the Internet didn't go away because of a mere act of amazing greed (the Dotcom Bubble) but instead served as the backbone of the Age of Information and a new Economy (e-commerce, social media, digital investing etc), the A.I. Bubble that has started fueling the market since 2023 shouldn't be demonized when it pops and in our opinion won't go away but instead serve as the backbone of the next Age of Reality and Commerce (metaverse, augmented reality, robotics, artificial intelligence, electric vehicles etc).
It has to be said, that the current Bull Cycle is much more similar to the 1974 - 2000 one than the 1932 - 1965, which understandable as neither banking or trading was that evolved or matured as it got with the financial engineering of the 80s and beyond.
** Conclusion **
In any case and as we are concluding this publications, all the above projections based on this 'Cyclical blueprint' may be speculation theoretically but trends that keep repeating themselves over the decades are not. Technically those patterns filter out all news, fundamentals, geopolitical, macroeconomical noise and give rise to a pure behavioral perspective, the essence of traditional Economics.
So based on that model, are you also expecting to see 20000 in 8 years time?
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SPX (S&P 500 Index)
BRIEFING Week #44: Ready For a Wild Ride ?Here's your weekly update ! Brought to you each weekend with years of track-record history..
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#202444 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500 e-mini futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
sp500: Bearish. 5730 was expected support and if bears are strong, 5800 stays resistance now. Expecting more sideways movement before another impulse down. Next target for bears is 5600 and bulls need a daily close above 5800. Thursday’s selling was strong enough for more downside but could also just have been distorted price action since it was end of the month. Friday was disappointing for bears already, which is why I think the selling is not as strong as hoped.
Quote from last week:
comment: Another disappointing week for the bulls. Big question now is the same as for dax and nq, was this the last before a deeper pullback or can we print 6000 before 5700? I don’t know and I am not going to pretend I do. Market is in breakout mode and the triangle has a bit more room to go. We simply need more price action because right now the market is in balance around 5870.
comment: Reasoning here is almost identical to dax and nasdaq. Selling was strong enough for a second leg and a measured move leads down to 5555, which is near the 50% retracement. I won’t repeat the same stuff here what I wrote for dax.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 5700 - 6000
bull case: 6000 remains bulls target but if we get a daily close below 5700, we will likely see 5550 before 6000. If we stay above, we will continue sideways.
Invalidation is below 5700.
bear case: Bears need to keep the pullback shallow and probably below the daily ema 5830. If they manage, their next target is 5670 which is the weekly 20ema and below that is 5555 for the measured move target, 50% retracement and July low.
Invalidation is above 5830.
outlook last week:
short term: Neutral. Bearish below 5820 for 5800, below 5800 we likely see 5730. Bullish above 5860 for 5880+ and above 5930 we will see 6000.
→ Last Sunday we traded 5846 and now we are at 5758. Outlook was ok.
short term: Neutral until we break below 5700. I favor some more sideways movement before the second leg down but it should stay below 5830.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-13: Very rough guess for the remaining trading weeks in 2024. Spike up, decent correction (~10%), nasty (blow off top) year end rally if earnings hold in Q4. Don’t trade based on that guess.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Added current valid bear trend lines and a potential bearish wave series down to 5555.
BRK.B ratio to SPX daily.Hello community,
I had fun doing the ratio between Warren Buffett's stock and the SP500 via the SPX, since the beginning of the year.
The result on the graph, i.e. 5.11% in favor of Warren.
Grandpa Warren, still holds the road, despite his 94 years.
Experience and wisdom have struck again.
Bravo the artist.
Make your opinion, before placing an order.
► Thank you for boosting, commenting, subscribing!
Election Volatility Shakes Up US MarketsS&P 500
● The index retreated from its all-time high of 5,880, initiating a downward trend.
● A breakdown below the Rising Wedge pattern has been confirmed.
● Key support levels to watch:
➖ Immediate support: 5,670
➖ Strong support: 5,400
Nasdaq Composite
● The index has hit an all-time high near the 18,750 level before beginning to retreat.
● After breaking through the trendline support, the index is currently hovering slightly above the next immediate support level.
● If it dips below this support, we could see a significant drop, potentially driving the index down to the 16,670 level.
**This market volatility is consistent with historical trends during US presidential election years. The 2024 election is particularly unpredictable due to conflicting economic indicators and potential delays in results.
Performance of U.S. and Indian Indices (2012-2024)Comparative Performance of U.S. and Indian Indices with INR Adjustment for period (2012-2024)
This TradingView chart displays a comparative performance analysis of multiple indices and assets from 2012 to 2024, measured in a mixed percentage scale. The assets include:
1. **QQQ in INR** (QQQ * USDINR): Represented in green, this line shows the Nasdaq-100 ETF (QQQ) adjusted to Indian Rupees, which has the highest performance, growing approximately +1,267.50% over the period.
2. **Nifty Midcap 150** (NIFTYMIDCAP150): In pink, this index tracks India's mid-cap companies, showing a significant growth of +883.72%.
3. **QQQ**: Shown in cyan, this is the U.S. QQQ ETF in its original USD form, with a return of +705.77%.
4. **S&P 500 in INR** (SPX * USDINR): In blue, this line represents the S&P 500 index adjusted to INR, showing an increase of +641.27%.
5. **Nifty Junior (NIFTYJR)**: Represented in purple, this index tracks India's next 50 large-cap stocks after the Nifty 50, showing a gain of +617.46%.
6. **Nifty 50** (NIFTY): In teal, this represents India’s benchmark index, which has grown by +423.78%.
7. **S&P 500** (SPX): In red, this represents the S&P 500 in its original USD form, with a performance of +336.51%.
8. **Gold in INR** (GOLD * USDINR): Represented in red, this shows the price of gold adjusted to INR, growing by +167.45%.
The chart indicates that, over this time period, U.S. tech (represented by QQQ) outperformed Indian indices and other asset classes when adjusted to INR, showcasing a strong relative growth in technology-focused U.S. equities compared to Indian mid-cap, large-cap indices, and gold. The Nifty Midcap 150 also exhibited impressive growth, especially when compared to other Indian and U.S. large-cap indices. Gold, while traditionally considered a safe asset, showed the least growth in comparison to equity indices.
This chart offers a clear view of the benefits of sectoral diversification, currency-adjusted performance, and asset allocation across different geographic regions.
S&P500: 1D MA50 hit after 50 days. Is it a buy?S&P500 just turned bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 44.346, MACD = 12.360, ADX = 37.705) as it hit yesterday the 1D MA50 for the first time since September 11th. The Channel Up since August is intact and each of its two previous Lows took place on the 1D MA100 and 1D MA200 respectively, so each time an MA period higher. The 1D RSI is also reversing on a similar pattern as those two Lows. Our Target is the top of the pattern (TP = 6,000).
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Bulls and Bears zone for 11-01-2024Could yesterday's sell off be just like Halloween
surprise ?
Event though, S&P closed at its Low, but ETH session traders are trying to rally.
Level to watch: 5763 --- 5765
Reports to watch:
US ISM Manufacturing Index 10:00 AM EST
US Construction Spending 10:00 AM EST
SPX rallies should be sold now. Move lower in SPX looks pretty impulsive, so I'd be looking for the 5770 to offer significant resistance now.
SPX 7-Minute Chart Analysis: Identifying Bullish MomentumThis SPX (S&P 500 Index) 7-minute chart provides a look into intraday bullish momentum using Heikin Ashi candles and moving averages. Here’s a breakdown of the key points and signals observed on this chart:
Key Indicators and Signals:
Call Signals:
The chart shows multiple “Call Signal” indicators (in green) along the trend, which highlight points where buying momentum is potentially entering the market. Each of these signals aligns closely with support areas or pullbacks within the uptrend, offering opportunities for entries in line with the prevailing trend.
Moving Averages (Orange and Blue Lines):
Orange Line (VWAP): The orange line tracks closer to price action and appears to act as a dynamic support level, with prices bouncing off it several times as the trend progresses upward. This moving average helps confirm the short-term bullish trend.
Blue Line (50 EMA or SMA): The blue moving average is further from the price but shows the overall upward trend. The price remains above this line, further confirming that bullish momentum is intact.
Heikin Ashi Candles:
The Heikin Ashi candles show consistent bullish candles (yellow) with few lower wicks, which indicates strong buying pressure. The limited presence of red candles reflects minor pullbacks rather than trend reversals, which is typical in a sustained uptrend.
Gray Support Zone(ORB):
There’s a gray support zone below the price AKA the opening range breakout, which was tested but held successfully. This area marks a key support level, as each time the price neared this zone, it bounced back, showing that buyers are defending this level strongly.
Analysis and Outlook:
Bullish Trend Confirmation: The consistent uptrend in SPX, supported by both moving averages and the strong Heikin Ashi candles, suggests that bullish momentum is likely to continue. The multiple “Call Signals” give confidence in the trend’s strength, indicating potential for further upside.
Entry and Exit Opportunities: You could use the pullbacks to the orange moving average or gray support zone as potential entry points, aligning with the overall uptrend. Watch for continued “Call Signal” alerts near these areas for high-probability entries.
Key Levels to Watch:
Support: Gray zone around 5,719 - 5,720 and the orange moving average.
Resistance: Look for any signs of resistance at psychological levels like 5,740 and 5,750, where some profit-taking might occur.
SPX at support ahead of critical dataIntraday Update: As the "bias chart" supported has noted the last several sessions, key support is at 5770, and today's lows (as of now) is 5775. With PCE, ECI and unemployment claims and earnings from a ton of major companies like AAPL, AMZN, MA and more later today, this support will be in focus.
2024-10-30 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Indexes - Many bull trend lines are gone for good. Bears closed at the lows and they desperately need follow through tomorrow. If nq won’t keep the markets afloat tomorrow and drops below 20400, we will likely see a big sell off with 20200 or lower. Dax looks done, clear break of the trend line, swing shorts are juicy here.
sp500 e-mini futures
comment: Bull trend line is now also broken and once market prints below 5800, this is over until year end rally might try 6000 again. Same logic as dax but market is not as bearish after today. Bears need follow through below 5820 and then 5800, if they get it, buckle up. Bulls obviously want to reverse up like the past 2 weeks and trade above 5900 again.
current market cycle: triangle probably broken - entering bigger trading range
key levels: 5800 - 5870
bull case: Bulls need to stay above 5830 or we test 5820, followed by 5800. Today’s close does not look good. Before the close I heavily favored the bulls to reverse this again but then we saw couple of sell spikes which erased the previous lows. Market turns neutral again above 5865.
Invalidation is below 5800.
bear case: Bears need follow through. No surprise. 5800 is the target for tomorrow, once they get it, market is free to fall down to 5730-5740. Interesting day ahead of us.
Invalidation is above 5920.
short term: Leaning bearish if we stay below 5865. Best chance for bears in a long time.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-13: Very rough guess for the remaining trading weeks in 2024. Spike up, decent correction (~10%), nasty (blow off top) year end rally if earnings hold in Q4. Don’t trade based on that guess.
current swing trade: Nope
trade of the day: Selling 5880 and buying 5850 has been profitable for many days now. So it was today.
SPX: s short break? After the winning streak during the last six weeks, the S&P 500 decided to relax a bit during the previous week. The index closed the week 0,3% lower, at the level of 5.808. While tech companies for one more time drove the markets higher, still, healthcare and manufacturing industries slowed down a bit. It should be especially mentioned TSLAs weekly performance, where shares of this company surged by 22%. This was the best performance of the company for the last 11 years, after TSLA posted better than expected Q3 results.
The sentiment on the markets was mixed considering increased US Treasury yields and also effects of the hurricane in Florida. This mixed sentiment could continue during the week ahead, considering important macro data which is set for a release. The Fed's favorite inflation gauge, the PCE index and Non-farm payrolls might bring some volatility back to markets in case of any surprises from current market expectations.
S&P500 Potential UpsidesHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring US500 for a buying opportunity around 5790 zone, US500 is trading in an uptrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 5790 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
S&P500 Bottom expected this week.New bull phase to 6500 startingThe S&P500 index (SPX) has a red 1W candle last week, its first after 6 straight green. This was a much needed technical correction on a rally that has been holding since the August 05 low, while on the longer term it's part of a Channel Up that since last October (2023), hence a year ago, is being supported by the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line).
We've identified a similar pattern, essentially an identical price action that started after the March 2020 COVID bottom and extended all the way to the November 2021 peak. It appears that relative to that Channel Up pattern, we are about to complete this week step (e), which on May 17 2021, it priced the 2nd straight red week and then resumed the uptrend.
Technically, as long as the 1W MA50 holds, we remain inside a Bull Phase. The symmetry between the two fractals is striking, both have ascended by +43.46% up to step (e). If this symmetry continues all the way to the top, then that could be at a +62.37% rise from the Channel's bottom.
As a result, this gives us a 6500 Target (at least) by Q2 2025.
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Alphabet (Google) Cup and Handle Bullish Technical FormationIn the domain of technical analysis of market prices, a cup and handle or cup with handle formation is a chart pattern consisting of a drop in the price and a rise back up to the original value, followed first by a smaller drop and then a rise past the previous peak. It is interpreted as an indication of bullish sentiment in the market and possible further price increases.
The cup part of the pattern should be fairly shallow, with a rounded or flat "bottom" (not a V-shaped one), and ideally reach to the same price at the upper end of both sides. The drop of the handle part should retrace about 30% to 50% of the rise at the end of the cup. For stock prices, the pattern may span from a few weeks to a few years; but commonly the cup lasts several months, while the handle should last for a shorter time.
A cup and handle formation is considered significant when it follows an increasing price trend, ideally one that is only a few months old. The older the increase trend, the less likely it is that the cup and handle will be an accurate indicator. The trade volume should decrease along with the price during the cup and should increase rapidly near the end of the handle when the price begins to rise.
The main technical graph for Alphabet Inc (Google) stock indicates on Cup and Handle Bullish Technical formation, since the price rose heavily over 2-years period of time (mid-2022 to mid-2024), and then 0.382x Fib retraced so far from its historical peaks.
This one can be entitled for so-called "cup and handle" respectively, with a further upside potential.
ES levels and targets Oct 29thAfter rallying to the 5882 target yesterday, ES spent the rest of the day chopping around 5864-65 support. This level remains the pivot/magnet of a two-week range, and we’re not done with it yet—it was lost overnight.
As of now: 5843-46 is the next major support level below. If that doesn’t hold, look for 5834 and 5815. Bulls need to reclaim 5855 to rally back toward 5864-65, with 5878+ beyond that.
S&P500: Next bullish wave is underway.S&P500 just turned bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 57.557, MACD = 35.840, ADX = 41.016) as the price made a rebound last Wednesday on the 4H MA100, right at the bottom of 6 week Channel Up. The 4H MA100 is the level where the last HL was also priced (October 2nd). Morever the 4H RSI hit and rebounded on the S1 Zone. Regarding the bullish waves, both previous ones have recorded at least a +3.50% rise. This is our expectation once more and we are aiming for slightly under it (TP = 5,950).
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Brief drop due to Electrions chaos, then back up a month afterI was checking last elections on 2012, 2016 and 2020. Seems that there is a brief drop before elections each time (5% to 10%) in the overall S&P500 (SPX). This year, seems that drop is not meaningful yet. Regarthless, I think going defensive this week to be heavy in cash. Then buy back into the market if price hits 5400 previous to Dec. It it do, I'll buy back 25% of SPX and wait if the trend still going in the direction to hit ~5000. If it do, might be back fully invested into the market to hope for a bounce back up signal.
We can protect ourselves of a 10% loss if I get this one right OR we can miss 5% on profits if the trend keeps going up in Nov and Dec.
Messy chart but I put my resistances and trends in here.
Any thoughts?
S&P sellers kick in, but the market remains strongLast week was marked by some selling activity. As anticipated, sellers took advantage of temporary bullish exhaustion and attempted to push the market down. A strong sell-off occurred on Wednesday, with the market losing 1.2%. However, this sharp decline did not see much follow-through, as the price found strong support at the top of the previous consolidation zone ( 574.7 ). On Friday, buyers even attempted to set a new daily high, but they were unable to maintain it through the close.
All of this leads me to believe that the sellers are not particularly strong, and we remain in a broadly bullish environment. A few key points supporting this bullish outlook include:
1. The weekly uptrend is still intact, and there is ample room for this weekly higher low.
2. There is relative strength in "risk-on" sectors (XLK, XLY), suggesting that bullish sentiment hasn't completely faded.
While we might see some short-term rotation within the 584.5–574.4 range, defined by two daily candle wicks (Wednesday and Friday), the long-term outlook remains decidedly bullish.
This week, important economic data will be released, along with earnings reports from major tech companies. This is likely to cause increased volatility, but unless there are major negative surprises, bullish sentiment should remain solid.
Combined US Equities Lousy Breakout means BreakdownThe combined US equities chart failed to push significantly and is consolidating. when it does this, it looks like it is rolling over to fall off a cliff.
IF we look carefully, besides the weakening technical indicators, there is also weakening price action, with the second or third lower high in the hourly time frame.
That said, the decision box needs to be broken out of, and then the critical support (red line).
Once these give way, it would be too obvious and there should be a sizeable retracement to the previous support, now being the downside target.
SPX500 H4 | Falling to 38.2% Fibonacci supportSPX500 is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 5,807.01 which is a pullback support that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 5,760.00 which is a level that lies underneath an overlap support and the 23.6% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels.
Take profit is at 5,881.22 which is a swing-high resistance close to the all-time high.
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#202443 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500 e-mini futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
sp500 : Multiple ways to draw triangles and bull wedges on the daily chart. It has room to go more sideways but Friday’s reversal was so strong an market closed at the lows, that I think many bulls have enough reason to be disappointed and will exit once we break below 5800 and then we will likely see 5750 next. Above 5905 I am wrong and this will likely be the leg to 6000.
Quote from last week:
comment: Monday made the 50 points higher and that’s all bulls achieve last week. We had two pause bars on the daily chart with Tuesday and Thursday but that was not enough to put doubt in bulls minds that this rally is over. 6000 is the target and, same as dax, we will likely hit it one way or the other.
comment: Another disappointing week for the bulls. Big question now is the same as for dax and nq, was this the last before a deeper pullback or can we print 6000 before 5700? I don’t know and I am not going to pretend I do. Market is in breakout mode and the triangle has a bit more room to go. We simply need more price action because right now the market is in balance around 5870.
current market cycle: nested bull wedges and a minor triangle from past 2 weeks
key levels: 5800 - 6000
bull case: 6000 is the target. Bulls now tried many times to break above 5930 but continue to fail. Same reasoning as for dax. Can the market find more buyers above 5900 next time we get there or do we have to pull back down to 5730 first? Until we see a daily close below 5800, bulls are still favored, since we are only closing above the daily 20ema.
Invalidation is below 5800.
bear case: Bears are printing weak bear bars and can not close below the daily ema. Pure guesswork as of now, which side will give up first. We will very likely get a bigger move next week, so don’t blow your account until then. If bears move strongly below 5800, 5730 is next and there it’s big decision time if we see 6000 or not.
Invalidation is above 6050.
outlook last week:
short term: Neutral between 5870 - 5930 and bullish above 5930 for 6000.
→ Last Sunday we traded 5906 and now we are at 5846. Most of the week was neutral, and we closed just 60 points lower than last week.
short term: Neutral. Bearish below 5820 for 5800, below 5800 we likely see 5730. Bullish above 5860 for 5880+ and above 5930 we will see 6000.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-13: Very rough guess for the remaining trading weeks in 2024. Spike up, decent correction (~10%), nasty (blow off top) year end rally if earnings hold in Q4. Don’t trade based on that guess.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Removed wave count
