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SPX (S&P 500 Index)

S&P 500 / It's beginning to look a lot like rate cutsIt's beginning to look a lot like rate cuts S&P 500 Technical Analysis The price is currently consolidating between 5620 and 5675, awaiting a breakout. Bullish Scenario: Stability above 5620 means will touch 5642 and above it 5672 Bearish Scenario: If the price remains below 5620, it could lead to a corrective move down to 5584. Key Levels: - Pivot Line: 5620 - Resistance Lines: 5642, 5675, 5700 - Support Lines: 5584, 5553, 5525 Today's Expected Trading Range: The price is expected to fluctuate between 5584 and 5675. Trend: Bullish momentum
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by SroshMayi
Buy using probabilityThe way probability distribution works is most common the result - higher the result on the bell curve and rare events are on the bottom of curve. On strong markets, prices rarely ever sit still at pivotal levels like 200dma or high VIX. Here we also saw higher lows, market only had two directions (crash or bull). If you know how markets work (or the drivers) this was a high probability entry. Sometimes accumulating VIX points to pressure building up and steam is being taken out from markets? "Prices are result of Supply-Demand dynamics". I would argue that big players benefit from buying low and defending peaks (as they got nothing to lose). would argue they lose by not buying low. This is a theoretical idea to give you perspective on strategy?
SP:SPX
by citsvar
S&P 500 Index (SPX) Analysis: Key Levels and Expectations.SP:SPX My Take: Looking at the 4-hour chart of the S&P 500 Index, it's clear that we're approaching a critical juncture. The price recently rallied up to the $5,630 - $5,655 resistance zone, which has been a significant barrier in the past. However, this level has proven to be tough for the bulls to break through, and we're now seeing signs of potential exhaustion. Key Levels: Resistance: $5,620 - $5,630: This is the zone where the price is currently facing resistance. It’s a crucial area to watch because a failure to break above it could result in a pullback. Support: $5,480 - $5,440: If we see a rejection from the current resistance, I'm expecting the price to retrace towards this support zone. This area has acted as a strong floor in the past, and it's likely where buyers might step in again. Trendline Support: The upward trendline, originating from the lows earlier this year, is still intact. This trendline could provide additional support around the $5,280 level if the price breaks through the aforementioned support zone. Expectations: Pullback Potential: Given the current price action, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a pullback from this resistance zone. The first area I'll be watching for potential support is the $5,480 - $5,440 zone. A break below this could bring us down to test the trendline around $5,280. Continuation of the Uptrend: If the bulls manage to push through the $5,620 - $5,630 resistance zone, we could see a continuation of the uptrend with a possible target towards $5,700 and beyond. But for now, I’m leaning towards the possibility of a short-term pullback before any further upside. Food for Thoughts: Right now, I’m closely watching how the price reacts around this resistance zone. A pullback could offer a good buying opportunity, especially if it holds above the $5,480 - $5,440 support area. On the other hand, a strong breakout above $5,630 would signal that the bulls are in control and could push the market to new highs. Stay tuned for more updates as the situation develops! Happy Trading from Deno Trading!
SP:SPX
by Deno_Trading
What Wall of Worry? Path of Least Resistance for NowI reviewed an interesting study Tuesday about V bottoms. Over 20 years of data showing the average "V Bottom" takes nearly 1 year to come back and get into positive territory. The fact that all US Indexes and many stocks have done this in 10-15 trading trades is pretty remarkable. Will we more path of least resistance at all-time highs or will we see resistance actual hold for a beat. All US Markets closing green today, Russell 2000 led the indexes today with +1.30% DXY hitting fresh lows, but 101 and 100 are major technical support levels that I'm watching. Review at your convenience. Thanks for watching!!!
CME_MINI:ES1!
by ChrisPulver
2
S&P500 Ends 8-Day Streak as Markets Eye Fed Minutes Jackson HoleS&P 500 Snaps 8-Day Win Streak Ahead of Fed Minutes and Jackson Hole Uncertainty Market Reversal: Wall Street reversed course Tuesday, breaking recent winning streaks. Fed Minutes: The Federal Reserve will release minutes from its last meeting, where rates were held but future cuts hinted Jackson Hole: This week's Jackson Hole event could further shake up markets. S&P 500 Technical Analysis The price is currently consolidating between 5,584 and 5,620, awaiting a breakout. Bullish Scenario: If the price stabilizes above 5,620, confirmed by a 4-hour candle close, it could rise further toward 5,676. Bearish Scenario: If the price remains below 5584, it could lead to a corrective move down to 5525. Key Levels: - Pivot Line: 5584 - Resistance Lines: 5642, 5675, 5700 - Support Lines: 5553, 5525, 5491 Today's Expected Trading Range: The price is expected to fluctuate between 5525 and 5,675. Trend: Bullish momentum with potential correction.
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by SroshMayi
S&P500 This is how it will reach 6000.The S&P500 index (SPX) has recovered almost all of its losses since its July 16 All Time High (ATH), firmly establishing again itself above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which is the usual short-term Support level during uptrends. The underlying pattern is a Channel Up and every time the index breaks above a former Resistance level (such as the current ATH), it consolidates for a few days and retests it as a Support, before starting the next wave of the Bullish Leg. As a result, we expect the index to break above 5670 soon and then turn sideways, sustained above it for 1-2 weeks. By the end of October we are targeting for a 6000 Higher High at the top of the long-term Channel Up pattern. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by TradingShot
2
2024-08-20 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Got their expected pullback but indexes have still not touched even the 4h 20ema. Markets closed near their open which was near yesterdays close. Mostly. Since bears could not even print something than a bear doji, we can expect more sideways at the highs before we will probably get another breakout above. sp500 e-mini futures comment: Small stop in the meltup but bulls bought it above the bull trend line. Same as for dax that I do not expect anything below 5600 for now and it should not go above 5650 before FOMC or you can consider me surprised. If anything, I’d bet on a bull breakout and not for strong bears. current market cycle: Bull trend inside the big trading range on the daily chart key levels: 5600 - 5650 bull case: Bulls are currently buying the 2h 20ema and did so today. If they keep it above 5600 then 5650 is probably a magnet for tomorrow. On the 1h chart posted today was a two legged pullback down to the current channel and odds favor the bulls to trade back up. Invalidation is below 5600. bear case: Bears are happy with stopping the advance and scalps. They took profits at new lows today and the market was barely red on the daily chart. I absolutely expect bears to come around big time again but just not right now. Can JPOW surprise the markets this week or can the market look for an excuse to sell it hard again? Sure. Is this more likely than a continuation up? No. Invalidation is above 5650. short term: max bullish above 5600. Below I turn neutral and wait. medium-long term: Bearish. I gave the 5000 target 3 months ago and we almost got there way earlier than expected. There is a reasonable chance we will see an event unfolding over the next days/weeks. Something breaks during these violent moves and this time will not be different. current swing trade: Nope. trade of the day: Selling above 5635 was good multiple times but only for scalps tbh.
CME_MINI:MES1!Long
by priceactiontds
SPX to continue in the upward move?SPX500USD - 24h expiry Continued upward momentum from 5544 resulted in the pair posting net daily gains yesterday. 5 positive daily performances in succession. The 261.8% Fibonacci extension is located at 5728 from 5094 to 5336. The previous swing high is located at 5680. Further upside is expected although we prefer to set longs at our bespoke support levels at 5566, resulting in improved risk/reward. We look to Buy at 5566 (stop at 5526) Our profit targets will be 5680 and 5728 Resistance: 5636 / 5680 / 5728 Support: 5566 / 5470 / 5440 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by OANDA
S&P 500 Futures Rise on Fed Rate Cut Bets as Powell Speech LoomsStock Index Futures Edge Higher on Fed Rate Cut Hopes, Powell's Speech in Focus In yesterday’s session, Wall Street’s major indexes closed higher, with the S&P 500 reaching a 1-month high. S&P 500 Technical Analysis The price is currently consolidating between 5,584 and 5,620, awaiting a breakout. Bullish Scenario: If the price stabilizes above 5,620, confirmed by a 4-hour candle close, it could rise further toward 5,676. Bearish Scenario: If the price remains below 5,620, it could lead to a corrective move down to 5,584. Key Levels: - Pivot Line: 5,620 - Resistance Lines: 5642, 5675, 5700 - Support Lines: 5584, 5553, 5525 Today's Expected Trading Range: The price is expected to fluctuate between 5,584 and 5,675. Trend: Bullish momentum with potential correction.
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by SroshMayi
Oil/Gold vs SPX/CPIUCSLThe chart of OIL/GOLD shows that the price of oil in terms of gold has been fluctuating within a channel since the US broke the last bretton woods agreement in the 70's. Since then we can see periods in which oil is expensive and periods in which oil is cheap in terms of gold, right now it's the cheapest it has been (excluding pandemic madness in 2020) and if you believe in head and shoulders you can see a second shoulder forming; so in the following years we could see a bounce and it may be agressive, if that's the case stocks will suffer in real terms. Could something have changed and the price will stay low for many more years, maybe, but I think it's something we have too keep in mind.
TVC:USOIL
by Vold316
1
Bulls Say "Can't Stop Won't Stop" - S&P 1% from All-Time HighsIt's as if the markets couldn't wait to open on Monday and continue what they've been doing for 9 of 11 trading days - push higher. S&P +.96% Nasdaq +1.31% Dow +.58% Russell 1.22% For a Monday, it was a pretty directional day. Wed-Fri is when the US news hits (FOMC Minutes, PMI, Jackson Hole, Powell Speech) so let's see if the party bus continues to rock until something forces a pause. S&P is a mere 1% off of the all-time highs. All of these comebacks are mighty impressive considering it's the bears that usually accelerate the direction - these bulls are highly motivated.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by ChrisPulver
SPY S&P500 ETF W-Shaped RecoveryIf you haven`t bought the previous correction: Now historically, the SPY S&P500 ETF has demonstrated a consistent pattern where a Relative Strength Index (RSI) at or below 30 triggers buying activity. This technical indicator, typically viewed as signaling an oversold condition, has reliably attracted investors looking to capitalize on perceived undervaluation. As a result, these dips have been quickly bought up, suggesting a strong market tendency to rebound from such low RSI levels. I expect the recovery to be V-shaped or W-shaped, ending the year higher.
AMEX:SPYLong
by TopgOptions
S&P bulls amazing coming backLast week, buyers continued to surprise by maintaining the impressive rally that began on Monday, the 5th. Observing the daily chart, we can see that for 10 consecutive days, the price has been setting new highs, never falling below the previous day's low. As of today (Monday, the 19th), the bulls have retraced 80% of the last bearish wave. It's also notable that buying occurred across all major S&P sectors, not just in a few big names. Here is the current market disposition: 1. The market is in a weekly uptrend, with a new major low officially confirmed at 510 . 2. On the daily chart, we see a beautiful stairstep pattern. 3. The only technical resistance above is July’s high of 565 , but given the rally's momentum, it is likely to be surpassed. The long-term outlook is unequivocally bullish. The short-term outlook is also bullish, as long as the daily stairstep pattern remains intact. For short traders, it is advisable to refrain from trying to catch the top. The current momentum is so strong that it could easily break all technical resistances. The only situation where I would consider cautious shorting is at the daily stairstep pattern break.
AMEX:SPYLong
by hermes_trisme
JPY, key to all other indexesJPY vs USD, key to the other index developments. As long as it holds its trendline, JPY will remain week vs the other global currencies, Japan exports will hold, carry trade arbitrages won't unwind, US bonds will not sell off (rising yields), volatility will remain contained. But if it breaks and doesn't hold the 139JPY/$, we could witness how algos start dumping US and Euro shares and bonds. Rising JPY should also affect the Nikkei 225, retaking the path to 30k
Short
by j_arrieta
2
S&P500 Futures Gain as Risk-On Sentiment Fuels Best Week of 2024S&P 500 Futures Rise After Risk-On Sentiment Drives Best Week of 2024 Equities fluctuated between gains and losses on Friday but ultimately ended higher, with the S&P 500 achieving a 3.9% weekly gain. The risk-on sentiment last week propelled the broad index to its strongest performance of 2024, with momentum still targeting 5,584 and 5,620, provided it stabilizes above 5,525. Bullish Scenario: As long as trades above 5525, there will be a bullish trend toward 5584 and 5620 Bearish Scenario: stability under 5525 by closing 4h candle means will support falling to get 5491 and 5460 Key Levels: - Pivot Line: 5525 - Resistance Levels: 5584, 5620, 5670 - Support Levels: 5491, 5460, 5409 Today's Expected Trading Range: The price is anticipated to fluctuate between 5525 and 5620. Tendency: Bullish momentum
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by SroshMayi
Using the iShares TIP Bond ETF to predict the S&P price reversalThe iShares TIP Bond ETF serves as an inflation-protected investment by adjusting its principal based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI). This makes it a valuable tool for macroeconomic analysis, as it provides insight into how inflation expectations are being priced into the market which gives early reversal signs when observing the MS on the weekly chart. As illustrated in the accompanying chart, when the ETF’s value (i.e., the inflation-adjusted principal) rises, the S&P 500 and Bitcoin often exhibit upward momentum, while the ETF’s yield typically declines. This inverse relationship occurs because the ETF becomes more appealing when riskier assets are expected to under perform, especially during periods of rising inflation. Investors should consider the ETF’s price adjustments in response to CPI data. For example, if CPI begins to decline and interest rates peak, the ETF may become less attractive, prompting investors to shift toward high-cap, risk-on assets in equities and potentially Bitcoin. It is also important to note that the price of this ETF can rise due to increased demand, regardless of inflation expectations. Therefore, a comprehensive, contextual understanding of market cycles is essential when evaluating its position in a broader investment strategy.
SP:SPXLong
by Ramiknfr
2
#202434 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. Quote from last week: comment: Market got to 5100 way faster than I expected but it was climactic selling and a pullback was expected. Not much difference in reasoning compared to dax and the same would apply to the nasdaq. Market is trying to find the big sellers again and we are probing higher. We will most likely hit the daily 20ema soon, which is around 5440 and that is also around the July low and therefore a breakout retest. After the 2 bull bars from Thursday & Friday, I do think the odds of disappointment for the bulls is greater than another bull bar on Monday. comment: Not much difference to dax, just that this market was a tat stronger even. Bulls almost reversed completely but 7 consecutive bull bars is as climactic as it gets. A pullback is due but that does not mean you can short it at 5578. Could go further since the obvious pain trade is up. current market cycle: Trading range. key levels: 5000-5700 bull case: From panic to euphoria. Good times. Bulls want a close of the bear gap to 5650 now and if they manage that, no reason we can’t print a new ath. More likely though is that we stay below 5600 and go much more sideways and wait for a new impulse. Invalidation is below 5400. bear case: Bears are gone it seems. Best they can hope for now is to stay below 5600 and make the market go sideways. If big sellers appear again, first target would be 5500 and then a close below daily ema but that is very low probability as of now. No bigger update this week since parallels to dax are big and I do think it’s best to be neutral here and wait for a pullback and see where that goes. Invalidation is above 5650. outlook last week: short term: Full bear mode if we stay below the daily ema. Retest of the lows is higher probability than breaking above the daily ema. I gave clear key levels, mark them and watch what the market does when it gets there. → Last Sunday we traded 5370 and now we are at 5578. My upper targets were 5450 and bulls just melted it. Part of outlook was ok because you don’t get bearish at climactic selling lows but this reversal is not anything that is likely to happen after such selling. short term: Neutral af. Want to see a pullback and also how market reacts to 5600. medium-long term: Same as dax. I wait and let market give more info. Right now it’s max confusion. current swing trade: None. chart update: Removed all but the small bear gap.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
SPX: the best week in 2024Posted inflation data for the US, which were below market expectations, increased optimism among market participants that the Fed will make its first move on the rate cuts in September this year. This was the major fuel for the significant increase in the value of the S&P 500 index during the week, which had its best performance week during 2024. The index started the week at the level of 5.341 and reached the highest level on Friday's trading session of 5.554. The index is currently only 2% lower from it's all time highest level, reached in July this year. Aside from inflation, the Retail Sales in July were 1% higher on a monthly basis, which was above market estimate of 0.3%. This represents an additional sign that the US economy is not at all on the glimpse of the recession, but quite opposite, based on macro data, it stands in a relatively solid shape. The biggest weekly winners are again tech stocks. Market favorite Nvidia managed to gain an incredible 18% during the week. Apple and Microsoft were traded higher by some 3% and 4% on a weekly level. Another aspect which should be also considered is that the majority of companies on Wall Street posted quarterly results. The analysts are noting that around 78% of the listed companies posted results which were higher from the market estimate, which additionally impacted positive market expectations, and pushed the index to the higher grounds.
SP:SPX
by XBTFX
Combined US Equities Since the last heads up analysis before the bearish pullback, some more new developments came into play, particularly how the equity market turned bullish... 1. Heads up given for RISK ON in the green ellipse. The weekly chart is actually very obvious with a long tail candlestick; 2. The latter part of that week finished with a combination of a long bullish candle, breaking and closing above a resistance trendline; 3. Then continued by another breakout of a range; and 4. This week closed with another colid bullish candle that closed the gap resistance, with another bullish candle to boot. 5. MACD and VolDiv indicators are bullish since the early part of the week. Can easily expect a revisit to the last high of 906.50, but not before a retest of the gap support.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by Auguraltrader