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SPX (S&P 500 Index)

SPX are we bullish or bearish? The S&P 500 closed the weekly firmly. Finally putting in a high volume reversal, has the SPX bottomed here? One thing is for sure we are still putting in higher highs & higher lows on the weekly time frame. Until we see the markets give us that lower weekly high its still a tough market to short. We think about the decline in semis and megacaps after earnings...all eyes will be on NvDA near end of month. The markets have a strong chance at staying buoyamt into NVDA earnings.
SP:SPX
by Trading-Capital
SPX 5600 BY FALL 2024 ?SP:SPX Economic Resilience: Despite various challenges, the U.S. economy has shown remarkable resilience. If this trend continues, it could support higher stock prices. Normalization of Interest Rates: The Federal Reserve’s normalization of interest rates, rather than aggressive tightening, could create a favorable environment for equities. If inflation continues to fall closer to the Fed’s 2% target, it might only require modest rate cuts. Consumer Spending Power: Consumers have maintained strong purchasing power, supported by high job security and a robust labor market. This continued consumption can drive corporate earnings higher. Big Tech Leadership: Big Tech companies have consistently delivered strong earnings and have been a significant driver of the S&P 500’s performance. Their growth prospects, particularly in areas like AI, remain strong. Earnings Growth: Analysts project solid earnings growth for the S&P 500, with estimates suggesting a significant increase in earnings per share (EPS) for 2024. Valuation Multiples: The valuation multiples for Big Tech and other sectors are seen as reasonable given their growth prospects. This supports higher price targets for the index. Historical Trends: Historical performance patterns, especially in presidential election years, suggest that the S&P 500 could see gains.
SP:SPXLong
by NYRUNSGLOBAL
Continue To Monitor 5390 For Bulls and BearsWe are currently 1.5 trading days away from our original market top call, but this analysis will cover any new developments. Wave A appeared to have a good 5 wave structure with wave 3 having an extension. Wave B retraced 73% of wave A's movement quicker than expected. Wave C has most likely completed at least the first two waves and possibly as much as 4 waves. Wave 2 retraced around 64% of wave 1 and as wave 3 is currently marked, it extended 304% of wave 1. I have marked wave 3 based on my wave 3 indicator at the bottom. The shorter arrow pointing down depicts a wave 3 of 3 and the larger arrow depicts the end of a wave 3. The gap in the blue painted backgrounds at the bottom is the distinguishing feature of two separate wave 3s being signaled instead of just one wave 3. The retracement off of the signaled wave 3 was very quick although it was a 20% retracement and quite possibly the end of wave 4. If these four waves have concluded, wave 5 and the market could top as early as Friday. I will walkthrough the levels on the far right first to determine a possible top. The furthest right values are retracements from the original market top from mid-July. If the index moves back to the all-time high, it would have retraced 100%. A common retracement could be between 38.2%-61.8%. The next column left of this is the movement extension of C from wave A which topped at 5336.20. Basically, wave C should finish somewhere above 5336.20 which the index has now surpassed and therefore is capable of topping at any time. The next leftmost column are movement extensions from wave 3's movement inside of wave C. Once again, we are already above wave 3's top (5333.70) and capable of ending at any time. I try to find common levels among these three columns and monitor the index as it approaches. A 50% retracement of the macro wave 1 would occur at 5387.30, while an extension of wave A would of 123.6% is at 5393.31, coincides with a 138.2% extension of wave 3 at 5392.57. This very tight zone is certainly one to monitor for a top and it is not far away at the time of this analysis. I try to make similar identifications in other symbols to get a better read of the S&P500 index. Japan is moving the same, although it is unclear if they have completed wave 3 of C yet. They will most likely see more movement as their trading day gets in full swing during the overnight hours for North America. They may continue the momentum observed from America's Thursday session. Without marking their completed wave 3 with certainty, their area of commonality is between 37705-37782. JP Morgan Chase makes things more interesting because it is not clear if we are still in macro wave 1 or macro wave 2. The case for macro wave 1 has it in a micro wave 3 of C albeit in wave 4 of macro wave 1 here: If this holds true, the S&P 500 may not be in the correct place. If JPM is actually inline with the current wave structure as the index, waves 4 and 5 were very abbreviated based on the location of the wave 3 of 3 signals from early August. This alignment would slightly alter the retracement lines to the far right as seen here: The area of commonality is around 211.30 which is almost too much of a movement over the next 1-2 days for this stock. Amazon appears to fall inline with the theory of ending macro wave 2 soon. It has a target area around 170.5-171.32 and another much higher at 175.52-176.35. Based on the lack of obvious agreement, it is difficult to determine where the market is. I will continue to monitor the initial theory that the market topped in mid-July and has completed a five wave structure down and is about to finish a three wave structure up in the coming days. If the levels pointed out here are significantly surpassed, the market could continue upward to new all-time highs once again. Another downward reversal on or before Monday likely points to a new index low between 4100-4700 within the next month.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by StockSignaler
S&P500 crashing. Will it benefit from a September RATE CUT??The S&P500 index (SPX, illustrated by the blue trend-line) has been under heavy selling pressure in the past 3 weeks and a September Fed Rate Cut is already priced at 95%. But will the index benefit from such action? A detailed look into the past 35 years of recorded Yield Curve (US10Y-US02Y) price action, shows that when it flattens and rebounds, the Fed steps in and cuts the interest rates (orange trend-line). As you see on that 1M chart though, this hasn't always been beneficial for stocks as especially for September 2007 and January 2001, it took place parallel to the Housing and Dotcom Crises. The Inflation Rate (black trend-line) however seems to be at a low level that is consistent with market bottoms and not tops. As a result, it appears that it is more likely we are in a curve reversal that is consistent with bull trend continuation for the stock market, after short-term corrections, in our opinion either post June 2019 (ignore the COVID crash, which is a once in 100 years non-technical event) or pre-2000. So to answer the original question, we believe there are more probabilities that a September rate cut will do more good to the stock market than harm. Just as a side-note, based on this chart, our sentiment is that the current AI-led rally will be similar to the internet rally of the mid-90s that eventually led to the Dotcom crash of 2000. Your thoughts? ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:SPX
by TradingShot
2
S&P 500 Faces Deep Retracement Amid Global TensionsThe S&P 500, after reaching an almost all-time high of $5670, has begun a notable retracement. This decline follows a "Red Monday" and escalating geopolitical tensions, particularly the conflicts in the Middle East and the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine. These factors have contributed to the current downward trend, triggering a deeper correction. From a seasonal analysis perspective, this type of correction is both expected and well-documented. Historically, the S&P 500 has shown a tendency to experience retracements between July and the end of October, regardless of its preceding bullish trend. This pattern suggests that the current decline may not be an anomaly but rather part of a predictable cycle. Investor fears and potential misinterpretations of the broader economic scenario could exacerbate this retracement. The psychological impact of global conflicts and economic uncertainty often leads to heightened market volatility and increased selling pressure. Technically, we have identified key demand areas around $5000 and lower at $4900. These levels could serve as potential support zones where buyers may re-enter the market, providing a possible halt to the decline. Given the current market dynamics and seasonal patterns, we are strategically looking to open a short position, anticipating further downward movement in the S&P 500. In summary, the S&P 500 is undergoing a significant correction influenced by global geopolitical tensions and historical seasonal patterns. While this retracement aligns with expected trends, it underscores the importance of careful market analysis and strategic positioning in response to evolving economic and geopolitical factors. ✅ Please share your thoughts about S&P500 in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
TVC:SPXShort
by FOREXN1
1
S&P500 / Continued Volatility in the MarketsContinued Volatility in the Markets Investors should brace themselves for continued market whiplash, as Thursday's trading session indicates that volatility remains a significant concern. The S&P 500 (SPX) has stabilized within a bearish trend, targeting 4923 soon. The current volatility and technical indicators suggest bearish momentum. Bullish Scenario: For a shift to a bullish trend, the price needs to stabilize above 5260, potentially reaching 5291 and 5327. Bearish Scenario: As long as the price trades below 5214, the bearish trend is expected to continue toward 5130 and 5040. Key Levels: - Pivot Line: 5214 - Resistance Levels: 5260, 5281, 5327 - Support Levels: 5130, 5040, 4925 Today's Expected Trading Range: The price is anticipated to fluctuate between 5215 and 5130. Direction: Downward
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by SroshMayi
2024-08-07 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Bear flag broke and we on our way to retest the lows. After hours sold off another 22 points so far. If the Globex session is bad enough, we can make new lows but for now I expect them to hold. We are in a very volatile environment and it’s hard to forecast anything. The daily chart shows a clear picture imo. Huge rejections on anything above 5250 but also below 5200. Bears had a climactic sell off and bulls are trying to find the bottom. I think more sideways inside the given range is the most reasonable outlook and everything else a surprise. current market cycle: Bear trend key levels: 5000 - 5300 bull case: Bulls had two very decent legs up today to make 120 points, just to see another huge sell off into the close down to 5200. 5240 is the mid point of the recent trading range at these lows and a magnet for the next pullback. I do think most bulls got reasonably disappointed by the bull trap today and want to look for longs at the lows again, so probably not until we get around 5150. Invalidation is below 5090. bear case: Bears trapped the bulls as my subtitle stated yesterday. They want a retest of 5119 and maybe 5100. I expect the lows to hold but you always have to calculate with market surprises. Only if something broke badly will we see more sellers than buyers below 5120. More reasonable is that we move sideways and get another pullback to > 5300 before another leg down. Bears want the market to stay below the bull wedge breakout 5280 or they risk another test of 5300 and or above. Invalidation is above 5280. short term: Bearish until we retest 5120, then neutral and waiting for bulls to come around for another pullback. medium-long term: Bearish. I gave the 5000 target 3 months ago and we almost got there way earlier than expected. There is a reasonable chance we will see an event unfolding over the next days/weeks. Something breaks during these violent moves and this time will not be different.
CME_MINI:MES1!Short
by priceactiontds
The doomsday retracementWow, what a week it has been. SPX down 3.5% and up 2.5% the day after. My thought is this backtrack is going to be the biggest retracement for the drop, just like we saw on bitcoin. APPL seems to have DOJ issues, NVIDIA chip issues in Taiwan... all seems to be lining up for potential lower for longer. My only buy this year will be TSLA. More on that. Goldilocks is not going to bring us back to pre-pandemic levels, rate cuts are not going to save the market. The narrative has already changed on July 17th when Trump said he didn't want to invade Taiwan, good luck buying after august.
EIGHTCAP:SPX500Short
by Osmanomics
1
Black Monday 2024? Discussing Current Markets and PositionsDuring Monday's open, I said this is going to be a day for the history books. Volatility expanded nearly 200% on the day (over 300% in a 3 day period), the Nikkei 225 crashed over 12% in a single day and had the largest 2 day decline ever. It leaked into the US markets with a nasty bearish futures run and massive gaps lower. Fortunately Monday's trading didn't make things much worse, but the damage was already done for many with that dramatic vol expansion. As the dust settles a bit more into Tuesday's trading, I wanted to review everything. Enjoy!!!
NASDAQ:NDX
by ChrisPulver
Oil giving us a HINTMarkets keep hitting ATHs, gold doesn't stop hunting for higher highs, and oil underperforms. Anytime price reacts to a historic zone it either sells off or rallies, and then reverses to confirm if the reaction in price was indeed true/false. In this example oil sold off brining us to point 'A' and is now at point 'B' which is the pullback phase also know as a continuation/pause to the overall trend. This happened during the times of 2019 and a larger pattern that lasted from 2011 - 2014. Each time this pattern played out in the oil markets negative outcomes occurred in the rest of markets. To add more confluence to this TA I'm analyzing the MACD distribution patterns (the same way I analyze price action), the agreement and disagreement between the two, and how price action reacts around the EMA lvls. We probably have about a year or less to earn more gains trading crypto and stocks till the market goes bust.
OANDA:WTICOUSDShort
by Nathanl19
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 8-6 : Caution Over The Next 48 HoursMy research suggests the SPY/QQQ will stall into a sideways upward-sloping price channel over the next 1~2 day before attempting to rally further. Watch this video to learn more. The Top-Resistance Pattern today may prove very accurate if the SPY rolls downward after filling the GAP. Get ready; The Vortex Rally is just starting after this Deep-V Bottom. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
1
Three Black Crows. Bear Market Candlestick Pattern. Series IIWere you ready or not with recent sell off on financial markets, - this one should be not a surprise. It's been already discussed in publication " 👀 Three Black Crows. Bear Market Candlestick " , that in unfavorable macroeconomic conditions, the Three Black Crows pattern is generally quite common pattern. Three Black Crows. Bear Market Candlestick Pattern Three Black Crows is a continuation pattern, being a term used to describe a bearish candlestick pattern that can predict a reversal in an uptrend. Classic candlestick charts show "Open", "High", "Low" and "Close" prices of a bar for a particular security. For markets moving up, the candlestick is usually white, green or blue. When moving lower they are black or red. The Three Black Crows pattern consists of three consecutive long-body candles that opened with a gap above or inside the real body of the previous candle, but ultimately closed lower than the previous candle. Often traders use this indicator in combination with other technical indicators or chart patterns to confirm a reversal. Restrictions on the use of three black crows If the "Three Black Crows" pattern has already shown significant downward movement, it makes sense to be wary of oversold conditions that could lead to consolidation or a pullback before further downward movement. The best way to assess whether a stock or other asset is oversold is to look at other technical indicators, such as relative strength index (RSI), moving averages, trend lines, or horizontal support and resistance levels. Many traders typically look to other independent chart patterns or technical indicators to confirm a breakout rather than relying solely on the Three Black Crows pattern. Overall, it is open to some free interpretation by traders. For example, when assessing the prospects of building a pattern into a longer continuous series consisting of “black crows” or the prospects of a possible rollback. In addition, other indicators reflect the true pattern of the three black crows. For example, a Three Black Crows pattern may involve a breakout of key support levels, which can independently predict the start of a medium-term downtrend. Using additional patterns and indicators increases the likelihood of a successful trading or exit strategy. Real example of Three black crows Since there are a little more than one day left before the closing of the third candle in the combination, the candlestick combination (given in the idea) is a still forming pattern, where (i) each of the three black candles opened above the closing price of the previous one, that is, with a small upward gap, (ii ) further - by the end of the time frame the price decreases below the price at close of the previous time frame, (iii) volumes are increased relative to the last bullish time frame that preceded the appearance of the first of the “three crows”, (iv) the upper and lower wicks of all “black crows” are relatively short and comparable with the main body of the candle. Historical examples of the Three Black Crows pattern Here's an example what's happened early in April, 2024 And here's an example what's going on right now in August, 2024 Potentially it may appear again and again. Don't miss it out! As history has repeated itself already, technical graph for S&P500 indicates on potential recovery, up to 5800 points, until November, 2024 (U.S. presidential elections).
SP:SPX
by Pandorra
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade for 8-5 - CAUTION: Extreme VolatilityThis video highlights why I believe skilled traders are taking minimal, targeted trades in the current market environment. With the current market volatility as crazy as it is, I don't believe anyone should be swinging for the fences. If you learn anything from my videos over the past few weeks - know this. The #1 rule for trading is to protect capital (at all times). You can be right or wrong while trading. But you have to learn to live to trade another day. This crazy market volatility could have made a small fortune for some people but destroyed others. Until we see the SPY move up above $535-$540, there is still a big risk the markets could fall further. Watch this video to learn more. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
COMEX:GC1!Long
by BradMatheny