SPX to 5800 by end of AugustSPX is going to 5800 in August. Invalidated if breaks below the green line.
SPX (S&P 500 Index)
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 7-25 - Deep Low Bottom (Gap Fill) This is a rather long video (about 23 minutes) - but I wanted to go over the unique situation presented to us with what I'm calling the "Kamala Shakeout" related to yesterday's deep selling trend.
This video is very clear. We are still in a technical Bearish trend, and I've highlighted the levels needed to switch to a Bullish trend.
Today's SPY Cycle Pattern is a Temp-Bottom. I'm expecting the SPY to attempt to identify support and roll upward - starting a price reversion that may see the price move above $555 over the next 2~5+ days.
But, right now, I'm more concerned with early morning selling pressure trying to fill the GAP Window from early June.
Remember, I'm trying to suggest a pattern reaction (a Temp-Bottom pattern) while highlighting the KEY Ultimate382 levels as confirmation levels for Bullish or Bearish trending.
Yesterday's big selling move was, in my opinion, related to unknowns focused on Kamala Harris' run for POTUS. I believe the markets were waiting for any catalyst related to the uncertainties of a Harris Presidency, and those concerns were reflected in the selling pressure we saw yesterday.
Here we go.
Get some
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S&P 500 : Stability Amid Breakout PhaseS&P 500 Analysis: Stability Amid Breakout Phase
The S&P 500 has experienced a price drop of approximately 100 points after stabilizing below the breakout zone at 5525. It is currently consolidating within the range of 5460 to 5409.
Bullish Scenario:
For a bullish trend to emerge, the price must reverse and stabilize above 5460, targeting upward movements towards 5491 and 5525.
Bearish Scenario:
Should the price continue its decline, it is expected to reach 5409. Stabilization below this level would indicate a downtrend, with further targets at 5372 and 5346.
Key Levels:
- Pivot Line: 5438
- Resistance Levels: 5460, 5490, 5525
- Support Levels: 5409, 5372, 5346
Today's Expected Trading Range:
The anticipated trading range for today lies between the resistance at 5460 and the support at 5372.
This refined analysis provides a clear outlook on the potential bullish and bearish scenarios, emphasizing key levels and expected movements within the current trading range.
SPX broke the trend line with a gap. Time to sell rallies?Since April, the SPX has risen around 15%, and since November's low, it has increased by almost 40%.
This is quite significant for such an index, making us wonder if this rise is fundamentally justified (in my opinion, it is not).
But, as they say, "trade what you see, not what you think".
What we saw was a strong upward move.
However, keeping this expression in mind, we also observed a breakdown with a gap yesterday, which was not filled during the day, indicating a "gap and run."
My preferred strategy for the index is to sell on eventual rallies above 5500, with a target at 5250.
This strategy would be negated by a new all-time high (ATH).
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade - 7-24 : Review & The Kamala ShakeoutAfter a long drive and trying to get through LA, I wanted to discuss what I believe is taking place in the US/Global markets. What I call the "Kamala Shakeout".
Over the past few weeks, there has been much news related to Trump/Biden and the potential election consequences.
But all of those expectations changed because of two rather large events..
_ the assassination attempt on Trump
_ Biden's withdrawal from the race - resulting in Kamala Harris's rise.
Now, I believe the markets are starting to digest the amount and scale of uncertainty related to a new POTUS candidate (with almost no knowledge of her policies, plans, and expectations) and the outcome in November (only 90+ days away).
IMO, what we are seeing right now is actual FEAR related to the unknown factors centered around Kamala Harris.
I believe voters and businesses already had expectations related to Biden/Trump (either outcome) based on the past 8 years. Now, with Kamala Harris, who knows what the expectations are related to plans, policies, and expectations?
That is why the markets rolled as hard as they did today. The markets are pricing a new degree of uncertainty and will continue the Kamala Shakeout until the dust settles.
I'll fill you in with more details tomorrow morning.
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S&P Futures Market Simple Trading Plans - Reacting To FEDHere's a detailed video on how to make use of market sentiment early on.
If you are looking for value investor longs, you'd need sentiment to feed in further and drop the price of the SPX.
For shorts, you'd need continued sentiment to support a downside case. More would need to follow post Fed Member Goolsbee regarding jobs/inflation.
Short Sell Analysis of SPX Based on Technical AnalysisThe S&P 500 (SPX) is presenting a short-selling opportunity based on technical resistances on chart.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade - SPY Seeking Support for Base/BottomHere is a quick video highlighting the News Event-driven price action today.
My SPY Cycle Patterns don't predict or operate off news cycles. They are based mostly on Fibonacci/Gann research/cycles.
Today's price action is a great example of when patterns fail to predict price trends accurately. But one has to understand that today's price movement is like throwing a huge rock into a tiny pond—it makes big waves.
That is how traders are interpreting the TSLA news today.
Even though the previous quarters were slightly worse than Q2:2024, traders anticipated any negative news that would push the markets downward (it appears).
My analysis has not changed. I'm looking at the price and thinking, "Boy, this is going to be an incredible bullish reversion setup for skilled traders."
In order words, when the selling pressure stalls/stops, prepare for a big rally above $556-557 on the SPY as a reversion move.
Earnings are sometimes challenging to trade through. Big news can throw some big price swings as data hits.
Buckle up. It will be interesting to see how the price reacts through this week's and next week's end.
Based on my SPY Cycle Patterns, I'm still preparing for a bullish rally phase.
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$SPX EQUAL WEIGHT OUTPERFORM INDEX:SPXEW wicking hard at the 2008-9 crash zone. exposure to mag 7 is significant risk. If you're bullish US equities, consider equal weight or small caps. The rotation is happening. Also tagging monthly oversold.
Based on this TF, I might expect value to outperform over the next few years. This falls in line with our bullish asia international thesis as that sector tends to be centered around value, not necessarily tech.
Bulls and Bears zone for 07-24-2024Yesterday's price action suggests that Bears are still in control and plenty of supply left.
Level to watch: 5547 --- 5545
News to Watch:
US PMI Composite Flash 945 AM EST
US New Home Sales 1000 AM EST
US EIA Petroleum Status Report 1030 AM EST
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 7-24 - Harami~Temp BottomGood morning all,
Boy, my friendly group of traders was reviewing the TSLA and GOOG data last night for any signs of weakness or strength.
The earnings data did not settle well with traders, and the markets were a bit lower this morning. But, simultaneously, I'm trying to tell my followers to let the dust settle after yesterday's data.
I was taught "it is a market of stocks - not a stock market". Don't think of it as a single unit - it is multiple (thousands) of stocks competing for your investment dollar.
And, as I'm still reading the data, I believe the US stock market is healthy and efficient in terms of earning power and future expectations.
Because of my expectations, I'm urging my followers to consider something somewhat unique. Today's SPY Cycle Patterns should be a Harami pattern, but tomorrow's is a Temp-Bottom.
I suspect the Temp-Bottom pattern may blend in with the Harami pattern today - setting up a very clean type of double-bottom or price base for the SPY/QQQ.
My data suggests we are moving into a reflation/recovery phase (higher), but the news/data (earnings) has shifted price action to the downside. The base/bottom is playing out today and tomorrow as the price attempts to find/bounce off support.
We'll see how today plays out. Please pay attention to my warning related to today's downward price trends. There is a lower gap that could get filled on a deeper downward price trend - but I'm looking for new or recent lows to set up a Base/bottom today. Then, I expect solid reflation/upward price trending over the next 5~10+ trading days.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade 7-23 EOD Wrap-up - Tomorrow's HaramiToday's Flat-Down pattern could not have played out any better. My SPY Cycle Patterns predicted today would reflect a moderately flat trading range that drifted downward - sure enough, that's precisely what we saw today on the SPY.
Now, we move into tomorrow's Harami pattern. Although we may see a broad price high or low (price volatility), we are nearing the APEX of a moderate price FLAG pattern. Price can become very volatile near these areas as price attempt to break away from a tighter price channel.
I expect the open-close range to stay very narrow tomorrow. The high/low range may be bigger than today's total candle range, but ultimately, I think tomorrow's open-close range will be very tight and narrow, possibly setting up a Doji-type candle.
In the broader sense of the SPY Cycle Pattern trends, we are moving into a basing/bottoming setup that should resolve to the upside on Thursday/Friday. So be aware that the recent lows may be a great opportunity to setup for the Thursday/Friday base/bottom SPY patterns.
I know many of you are relying on these patterns, and I started this to prove that my technology works and can provide greater insight for traders. Now, I have to decide whether to continue doing this or take a break.
I have enjoyed teaching my techniques and systems to everyone, and I love the comments. However, I also want to protect my technology and resources.
So, I would love to hear from you guys. Do you want more of this? Do you want me to continue this for another few weeks?
Let me know what you guys think.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade - MENT Pressure System: Building SuccessHave you seen my Plan Your Trade videos yet? Maybe you should take a break and watch a few of them.
Part of my effort to help traders involves building a new Pressure System - designed to deploy some of my favorite Fibonacci price constructs and the latest tools.
One of the new tools I've been working on is the MENT Pressure System. I would like to make it adaptive (self-adapting to price trends/rotation), but that may take another 10+ days of work.
I just completed an update in which the Pressure system is applied to Bollinger Bands to help traders develop trigger confirmation and find better trade triggers.
My belief is that using my SPY Cycle Patterns along with something like this new Pressure System should provide a clear advantage for day traders and swing traders.
When I suggest the SPY Cycle Patterns are Basing/Bottoming (like I've been suggesting since late Thursday (7-18) and into Friday (7-19), traders need to understand I'm hinting that price is transitioning into a basing/bottoming phase - looking to shift back into a bullish price structure.
Ultimately, I would love it if traders could use my SPY Cycle Patterns and my MENT Pressure System to pick the best trades (staying away from count-trend trades and learning to trade what I call "the Sweet Spot."
I welcome any feedback you may have after watching this video.
It is a lot of fun to receive your comments and suggestions. Together, I hope to build as many followers as possible and help as many traders as possible.
Let's GET SOME.
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SPx / BREAKOUT, Pivot ZoneS&P 500 Analysis: Reached to the breakout zone
The price dropped and reached the breakout zone between 5550 and 5525, to confirm the right direction should close 4h candle above or below it.
Bullish Scenario:
The bullish trend will be activated by stabilizing above 5550 to get 5580 and above 5585 will get 5620.
Bearish Scenario:
For a downtrend, the price will touch 5525 and then should stabilize under 5525 to be downtrend till 5491
Key Levels:
- Pivot Line: 5550
- Resistance Levels: 5580, 5620, 5640
- Support Levels: 5525, 5491, 5460
Today's Expected Trading Range:
The expected trading range is between the resistance at 5585 and the support at 5460.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade - 7-23 - Price Consolidates Before RallyGood morning,
This is the Plan Your Trade video for July 23, 2024.
Please watch this video to learn why you may want to consider the next 36+ hours as a STAY AWAY type of trading range.
The SPY Cycle Patterns suggest the price will consolidate today (23) and tomorrow (24) before attempting to move into a solid Rally phase on the 25.
I believe the next 36 hours should only be played by skilled day traders. When the price stays choppy and in a very tight range, there is minimal opportunity to catch moderate swing trades.
Remember, any price move below 554 on the SPY chart will likely be rejected higher - setting up multiple base/bottom levels over the next 36 to 48 hours. Those moves below 554 may become solid entry levels for my expected Bullish rally phase on the 25th and beyond.
This is one of those lessons where the patterns show very tight price ranges over the next two days. That reflects a minimal opportunity for day traders.
But remember, we are basing/bottoming ahead of the 25th+ rally phase. So, this still presents an excellent opportunity to plan/prepare/execute a broader trading plan.
2024-07-22 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Not too much to add after the dax analysis. 50% pb for sp500 is 5632, so market has some room higher. Daily 20ema is around 5600 and I do think the odds of the market turning down again to test the lows or make lower lows, is higher than going above 5630.
current market cycle: Trading range until 5500 is clearly broken. But bubble has popped and is now deflating. Enjoy the ride down.
key levels: 5540 - 5620
bull case: Bulls want at least the 50% pb and as long as they stay above the bull trend line 5575ish, their bull case is valid. One market broke above the 1h 20ema, it could not get a close below it and that’s strength by the bulls. They need follow through tomorrow and probably some force to get above 5632. That price is the 50% pb and also the breakout price, so two good reasons to go there again.
Invalidation is below 5600.
bear case: Bears need a proper channel for more downside, so they stepped aside enough today for bulls to get a bounce. Their target now is to stay below 5632 and not let the bulls gain too much hope again. No deeper analysis today, please see my weekly post.
Invalidation is above 5660.
short term: Neutral until market found the lower high and trades back down. Should be around 5630. If the minor bull trend line is broken, bearish to 5500 and below 5500 is hell.
medium-long term: Bearish. We will see 5000 over the next weeks again and 4600 over the next 12 months. Will update this time and price wise over the weekend but I expect to at least see 5000 over the next months in 2024. —updated weeks to months.
current swing trade: Short 5700. Will also hold this until Tesla goes bankrupt or Cathy closes her trashcan of a “fund”.
trade of the day: Bulls made more money today. Buying anywhere near the minor bull trend line or at the 15m 20ema was good enough. Buying bar 45 or latest 47 was a very good trade.
S&P500: Never a CoincidenceAs one of the most traded indexes in the world this asset has consistently respected the Fibonacci levels based on it's last local low. Considering how aggressively price is moving up now & how pessimistic the market was the last few years I think it's likely we climb higher. It's important to see how it reacts to these levels a resistance levels to look for exhaustion but overall the trend is strongly bullish
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 7-22 - Making Your Own DecisionsMorning again,
This morning, I received many questions from subscribers and other members asking, "What should I do?" Should I buy, wait, or what?
I won't tell you guys what to do every 10 minutes. I deliver this research, the SPY Cycle Patterns, and other content to help you make better trading decisions.
I put together this video to better explain my expectations about the morning rally and subsequent pullback.
This is very important because my job is not to tell you when to trade and what to do. My job is to teach you the skills to make your own decisions.
Honestly, if you don't know what you want to do regarding trades, don't take any trades at all. Wait it out a bit.
I know all of you want to know what's going on in my head, but it is illegal and unethical for me to tell you what you should do regarding trading.
I deliver the most precise content I can - ensuring you see and understand what I believe is likely to happen. From there - you make all the decisions.
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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade - 7-22 - Pressure System ImprovementsThis is a short video showing you the progress I'm making on the MENT Pressure System for daytraders.
When I started this project, I was looking for a way to help daytraders understand trending, pullbacks, targets, and moderate price rotation.
I knew some of the techniques I use could help, but I wanted to create a visual solution to allow traders to SEE the opportunities, trends, and other setups. So, I decided to try to create my own solution.
After about 4+ days of coding and playing with PineScript (only putting about 1~2 hours a day into the project) - this is the current project and how it works.
The one thing I'm very pleased with is the Fibonacci Price Theory module. It does almost everything I wanted it to do right now.
Currently, I'm working on better identification of triggers, targets, pullback "Air" and other features.
I just wanted to show it off a bit and to highlight the new Adaptive MA system - which I think will help identify the missing components.
I welcome your feedback.
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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trae For 7-22 - Topping PatternGood morning,
I hope all of you had a wonderful weekend.
Today, we start the trading week with a Topping pattern on my SPY Cycle Patterns. That means we should see the SPY/QQQ rally higher, attempt to find a resistance/peak price level, and then roll downward (moving away from that resistance area).
Over the past four weeks, I've been amazed at the accuracy of my SPY Cycle Patterns. Can you believe I've been able to predict more than twenty trading days into the future—calling rallies, selloffs, tops, bottoms, and congestion periods almost perfectly?
Sometimes I get the "well, you were wrong about WHATEVER" type of comments from viewers.
I may have been wrong about one or two things in my expectations related to how price would move, react, or trend. But, I challenge anyone to attempt to accurately predict 3+ weeks of future price trends, action, direction, or expectations as I do. If you think you can do any better than what I'm doing - go ahead and give it a try. Let me know how it works out for you.
Again, I'm not suggesting my SPY Cycle Patterns are 100% accurate, but I've never seen any other technology or AI like it. Nothing on the planet can predict the SPY/QQQ future price moves like my SPY Cycle Patterns and my own skills applied to interpreting them to reflect accurate future expectations.
We have one more week to go with the SPY Cycle Patterns, and then I have to decide if I want to continue giving this away or not. Hearing all the great comments has been fun, but I want traders to understand this is a premium solution. This is not the average comment/suggestion you get from someone else.
In my opinion, and you can make this decision on your own, this proven technology appears to work better than anything else I've ever seen. There is no place where you can see 2~3 weeks into the future for the SPY/QQQ and have any confidence in the data presented.
Get ready. We have 2~3 days of basing/consolidation before we shift into a moderately strong bullish breakout/rally phase near the 24~25 of July.
Get some.
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S&P 500 ATH in Q1 on even yearsIn every even year S&P 500 reaches its ATH in Q1, which is followed by rapid and deep decline.
Why can it crash? Look how similar S&P 500 behaviour between May 1986-December 1987 and October 2022-February 2024.
The 1987 crash started on the way from 1.414 to 1.618 fibo.
If the S&P 500 hasn't already topped on Feb 2 with a value of 4975, then the price range between the Fibonacci levels of 1.414 (5025) and 1.618 (5235) is the potential topping zone. From February 2 to mid-March, the peak is expected to occur.
I'm not saying we will definitely crash, but a significant downward movement is anticipated soon.
Basic scenario bottom: 4250-4500 Mid March - Mid May
Crash scenario bottom: 3500-4250 Mid March - Mid May
BRIEFING Week #29 : Weekly Signals are In, Waiting for MonthlyHere's your weekly update ! Brought to you each weekend with years of track-record history..
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That's the best way to support me and help pushing this content to other users.
Kindly,
Phil
