Trading Plan for Wednesday, May 15th, 2024Trading Plan for Wednesday, May 15th, 2024
Market Sentiment: Bullish, consolidating within a tight range after a strong rally. The market could continue to build out a bull flag pattern or break out directly to new highs.
Key Supports
Immediate Supports: 5329 (major), 5318 (major), 5302-04 (major)
Major Supports: 5272-74 (major), 5236 (major), 5208 (major)
Key Resistances
Near-term Resistance: 5347 (major), 5365-67 (major), 5386-89 (major)
Major Resistances: 5404-07 (major), 5450 (major)
Trading Strategy
Chop Zone Management: The market is consolidating within the 5302-5347 range, with an even tighter range of 5329-5347. Avoid overtrading and focus on level-to-level scalping for small gains.
Long Opportunities: Look for a bounce and reclaim above 5317 if the 5309-11 area is tested. If the market dips lower, consider longs at 5302-04, 5272, or 5287 (major).
Short Opportunities: As always, avoid shorting green candles and breaking trends. If considering shorts, 5342-47 may offer a potential dip, but proceed with extreme caution.
Bull Case
Bull Flag Continuation: The market may continue to build out the 5309-5342 bull flag pattern, potentially breaking out for a new push into all-time highs (ATHs). Target 5359, then 5375-77 in this scenario.
Consolidation and Breakout: If the market consolidates within the 5329-5347 range and breaks out above 5347, it could target the resistances mentioned above.
Adding on Strength: Monitor overnight action for potential flagging below 5219 as a possible entry point for adding to long positions.
Bear Case
Breakdown Signals: A convincing break below 5302 could trigger a deeper retracement, potentially targeting 5272 and lower.
Entry Points: Look for a bounce attempt and rejection at 5302, then consider entering a short position around 5300. Remember to manage risk with level-to-level profit-taking.
News: Top Stories for May 15th, 2024
📈 Renewed Market Rally: The stock market has experienced a renewed record-setting rally, surprising many of Wall Street's top strategists and prompting revisions of year-end S&P 500 targets. This surge reflects robust confidence in market fundamentals and investor optimism.
🌍 Geopolitical Tensions and Commodity Prices: The death of Iran's President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash has introduced new uncertainties into the oil market, potentially affecting global oil prices. Concurrently, gold futures have reached new record settlements amid growing geopolitical tensions and rate-cut expectations.
🏦 Federal Reserve's Economic Outlook: The minutes from the Federal Reserve's latest meeting are highly anticipated as they may provide further clarity on the timing of potential rate cuts and reveal the level of consensus among policymakers. This release is crucial for understanding the Fed's future monetary policy direction.
💼 Corporate Earnings Reports: Nvidia's earnings report is particularly significant as it is a key driver of the S&P 500's recent growth. Investors and analysts will be closely watching this report to gauge the health of the tech sector and its impact on broader market trends.
📊 Global Economic Indicators: Recent data releases, such as the CPI report and retail sales data, have fueled speculations of a cooling economy. These indicators are essential for assessing the overall health of the economy and potential shifts in monetary policy.
SPX (S&P 500 Index)
VIX - Fear indicator shows concern but not panicTrue market capitulation fear events are marked with semi generational fear levels of the charts
Were at a point of a resistance , but could easily slice through this level if we get increasing levels of uncertainty and panic entering the markets
Could we see 30? Possibly
SPx (Still or Yet...)SP500 Index Forecast
The price continues to attempt a correction towards 5281 as long as it trades below 5320. However, overall stability above 5325 would indicate a continuation of the bullish trend towards 5360 and beyond.
The bearish scenario will be activated if the price breaks below 5281 and 5266.
Pivot Line: 5313
Resistance Levels: 5325, 5340, 5357
Support Levels: 5281, 5263, 5227
Today’s expected trading range is between the support 5264 and the resistance 5370.
Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures indicate a 3.6% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the June FOMC meeting and a 22.8% chance of a similar cut at the July policy meeting.
S&P500 Short-term buy opportunityThe S&P500 (SPX) index gave us an excellent bottom buy signal on May 02 (see chart below) that comfortably hit our 5200 Target:
The pattern that prevailed is a Channel Up, holding since the start of the month. As long as it is supported by the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and the 4H RSI Rectangle holds, we expect the current consolidation to give a similar 2.0 Fibonacci extension Target at 5370, such as the May 10 High.
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S&P500: Wait for the ideal level to rebuy.The S&P500 index is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 44.135, MACD = 2.270, ADX = 26.567) despite the fact that it made a new All Time High, in fact turning the former R level into S. The uptrend is being supported by the 4H MA50 since the May 2nd breakout and the Channel Up presents a new low risk buy opportunity close to the 4H MA100, ideally when the 4H RSI approaches the 30.000 limit. We will wait for the opportunity to go long and target the top of the Channel Up (TP = 5,400).
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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The technical picture illustrates the possibility of continued explosive growth in Supermicro shares, which are up more than 160 percent since the beginning of the year.
$XBI Looking to Breakout (Again)?AMEX:XBI Firstly, I may have an unhealthy attraction to this ETF. I have been in and out of this ETF a number of times over the last few months and overall, just a few $ profit.
Having said that this has been basing Since January 2022. The longer the base the bigger the break, or so the Wall Street Axiom goes. It did breakout in February 2024 and quickly failed (I have a link below of my last idea). And there is another idiom: from failed moves come fast moves, and it did move quickly down. Now it is back to the original breakout “area” so this may have been a simple shakeout.
Here is what I like about it now: It looks to have gotten support near the 40 Week MA. It looks to be regaining the 10 Week MA (Yellow) and is solidly above the 5 Week MA. This weekly chart looks much better than the daily chart.
This is my plan, “if” the market is doing well this coming week and this moves above last week’s close of $91.18 I plan on opening a new position with a maximum stop below last week’s low of 87.68 which is about a 4% position risk. My thesis is that it can easily go back to retest the 103 – 104 area which would be about a 10% gain.
My idea, your money. If you decide you like this idea, make sure that it fits with your trading plan on your timeframe.
The chart I am using is the All-In-One LevelUp tool available here on TV. Check it out.
Comments always welcome. Thanks for looking.
Trading Plan for Monday, May 20th, 2024Trading Plan for Monday, May 20th, 2024
Market Sentiment: Bullish, consolidating after a historic rally.
Key Supports
Immediate Supports: 5309-11 (major), 5302 (major), 5294
Major Supports: 5267-72 (major), 5232-35 (major), 5208-11 (major), 5150-55 (major)
Key Resistances
Near-term Resistance: 5329, 5333 (major), 5342-5345 (major)
Major Resistances: 5375-77 (major), 5404-07 (major)
Trading Strategy
Consolidation & Pattern Formation: The market is in a post-rally consolidation phase, likely forming a bull flag pattern between 5309 and 5342. Expect choppy trading with potential for breakouts or breakdowns.
Long Opportunities: Wait for a test of 5309-11 support, followed by a bounce and reclaim above 5317, as a potential long entry signal.
Short Opportunities: As always, avoid shorting green candles and breaking trends. If considering shorts, wait for a confirmed breakdown of 5302, then look for an entry around 5300 after a bounce or failed breakdown.
Level-to-Level Trading: Focus on scalping profits within the range as the market consolidates. Exercise patience and avoid overtrading in this choppy environment.
Bull Case
Bull Flag Continuation: The market may continue to fill out the 5309-5342 range, potentially leading to a breakout toward new all-time highs. Target 5359 and 5375-77 in this scenario.
Adding on Strength: Monitor overnight action for potential flagging above 5309 and below 5219 as a possible entry point for adding to long positions.
Bear Case
Breakdown Signals: A breakdown below 5302, with confirmation from a bounce attempt and rejection, would signal a more significant correction. Use caution with breakdown trades as they are prone to traps.
News: Top Stories for May 20th, 2024
🇨🇳 Steady Benchmark Lending Rates in China: Amidst ongoing efforts to stabilize the property sector, China's central bank has maintained its benchmark lending rates. This decision follows a series of bold measures aimed at addressing challenges in the property sector, highlighting the delicate balance the government seeks to maintain in its economic policies.
🏦 Federal Reserve's Upcoming Policy Meeting Minutes: Investors are keenly awaiting the release of the minutes from the Federal Reserve's recent policy meeting. This document is expected to provide critical insights into the Fed's economic outlook and future policy directions, influencing market sentiments and investment strategies.
🌐 Geopolitical Tensions and Trade Policies: The global trade environment remains tense as geopolitical issues continue to unfold. Notably, the U.S. President's decision to raise tariffs on Chinese goods has reignited debates over the economic impacts of such tariffs, with potential repercussions for international trade relations and domestic economies.
📉 Global Market Reactions to Mixed Economic Data: As the world economies emit mixed signals, global markets are poised for a potential summertime rally, albeit with an awareness of the risks that could derail such optimism. This scenario underscores the complex interplay of economic indicators and market psychology in shaping investment landscapes.
🏦 Regulatory Adjustments and Financial Sector Implications: Discussions among regulators about reducing proposed capital requirements signify a shift that could enhance the clout of banks. Such regulatory adjustments are crucial as they could affect the stability and operational strategies of financial institutions globally, reflecting broader trends in financial regulation and oversight.
Add long SQQQ May 31st $10.50+ Calls HereI bought long SQQQ $10-$10.50 May 24th to 31st calls this morning, if we hit 5400 i'll add.
The VIX is bouncing as suspected at $12 and the S&P500 wants to dip below and confirm a 5300 fake out which was my bias and the DOW (DJIA) wants to do the same at 40k
bitcoin is faking out above 67500 into an expanded flat pointing to my 63,300-63,500 short term short trajectory
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SPX500 wrestling with overhead resistanceeThe short-term hourly SPX500 has resistance around 5,320. However, the longer-term daily is still positive, implying short-term pullbacks may be dips in the broader uptrend.
This video is intended for the users of Stratos Markets Limited, Stratos Trading Pty. Limited and Stratos Global LLC, (collectively “FXCM Group”).
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CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”), previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com) :
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
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Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763). Please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
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Losses can exceed deposits.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy.
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Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
US500 S&P Technical Analysis and Trade Idea Taking a comprehensive view of the US500, we observe a prevailing bullish trend, particularly evident when analyzing the monthly and weekly charts. Although there was a recent minor downturn, the daily chart exhibited bearish movements. However, the overall sentiment is optimistic once again. Notably, we’ve identified bullish price action—a decisive break in market structure on the 4-hour timeframe—which could potentially shift the 4-hour trend to bullish. In our video, we delve into trend analysis, explore price action dynamics, dissect market structure, and introduce key technical analysis concepts. Toward the video’s conclusion, we present a trade idea. It’s essential to emphasize that this information serves educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. 📈
AMD GOING UP TO 169 ? NASDAQ:AMD 169 TP THIS WEEK ?
6 REASONS WHY
Strong Financial Performance: AMD's financial performance has been a significant contributor to its stock price surge.
The company's earnings per share (EPS) and forward dividend & yield figures have shown considerable improvement, reflecting a robust financial health that has instilled confidence in investors.
Superior Product Offerings: AMD's product portfolio is another reason for its success. The company offers a diverse range of microprocessors, graphics processing units (GPUs), and other semiconductor products that cater to a wide range of industries.
This versatility has allowed AMD to tap into multiple markets, driving its revenue and stock price upwards.
Market Share Gains: AMD has been steadily gaining market share from its competitors, particularly in the high-growth sectors of data centers and AI chips. The company's innovative products and competitive pricing have enabled it to outperform its rivals, leading to an increase in its market share.
Positive Market Sentiment: The overall positive market sentiment towards the semiconductor industry has also played a role in AMD's rally. As the demand for semiconductor products continues to grow, driven by emerging technologies like AI, IoT, and 5G, companies like AMD are well-positioned to benefit from this trend.
Strategic Partnerships and Collaborations: AMD's strategic partnerships and collaborations with other leading technology companies have also contributed to its success. These partnerships have allowed AMD to leverage its partners' resources and expertise to develop innovative products and expand its market reach.
Effective Management: Finally, AMD's management team has been instrumental in driving the company's success. Under their leadership, AMD has successfully navigated the challenges of the semiconductor industry, positioning the company for long-term growth.
SPX: overbought momentumThe S&P 500 managed to reach a fresh all time high at 5.322 during the previous week, supported by the market optimism. This was a gain of 1.5% on a weekly level. There are currently several reasons for such a move. Certainly, economic data is currently one of the most watched by the market. Posted inflation data in the US for April, showed that the inflation was moving in line with market expectations, and a bit lower from the March data. This supported market confidence that the first Fed's rate cut might come in September this year. There have also been notes from some Fed officials that the inflation developments in April are perceived positively, however, the Fed will still need more confidence that the inflation will indeed move to the lower grounds in the coming period. On the other side are relatively strong earnings from some companies included in the index of 500 most valued companies in the US. The information technology sectors continue to lead the market, however, the previous week we have seen that the real estate sector is emerging from the period of high pressure due to high interest rates, which was 2.5% higher during the week.
Overbought momentum continues to be evident for the index. Some relaxation might be possible in the week ahead, however, the market continues to be highly bullish on the US equities.
SPX: And Mrs. Market says not yet!!Well, my previous idea for a higher degree wave 4 got busted! Market is not ready to be bearish just yet. On Friday we got a breakout from the trendline resistance and retest. Next week we should expect a move upwards toward the next resistance at 5402. However, it seems like Market is poised to run towards the 1.236 fib extension of waves AB which is also around the 0.618 fib extension of Primary waves 1 and 2. If the contracting diagonal theory is correct, then that would be an area of interest to see the market turn for a bigger correction. If market decides to blow through those levels, then we need to rethink this whole count and maybe get even more bullish. For now, still looking for a higher degree top and a good 25%-30% correction in the next few months.
S&P 500 Macro Outlook (2022-2024 Forecasted Targets/Tops/Bottom)3950-4K micro-target followed by the melt-up rally.
Linear top: 5325
Log top: (Separate post): 6000
Extension linear top: 6500
60-80% Bear Market follows;
Target 1: 2150
Target 2: 1555
End of Bear Market: Q3/Q4 2024 due to QE5/6, aka Infinite easing.
P.S. Disregard target 3 on the chart; Depression isn't expected this decade.
SPX - Enjoy the rally while it last!For those who have been here since 2022 early 2023 when there was so much fear in the market and we called the market had bottomed. I think it was the right call, even though we had a lot of naysayers. Now I think we are nearing the end of this rally which I estimate will be sometime in February 2024. I have two outcomes the green line below which I highly favor and believe that is the path and the grey line which is definitely possible but unlike in my opinion due to election year. Also it looks like we are following the cup and handle. I have also explained in my other ideas why I think we are like in 1990 and 2012 (base on the fear). If the grey line happens, Biden loses the election guaranteed so I am certain the fed will hold the stock market at least until after the election.
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S&P rally continues; will we see new high?After confirmation of control in the first days of May, bulls enjoyed their dominance. The market opened with a gap up on Monday, rallied throughout the entire week, and closed very strongly within the top value area. There was some profit-taking on Monday, but sellers were not able to push the price even below the previous day's high. At this stage, there are no major warning signs for the buyers. On the other hand, there are many signs that confirm their strength:
1. Price is in a daily uptrend, aligned with higher level context (weekly/monthly uptrend).
2. Two unfilled gaps (Friday the 3rd and Monday the 6th).
3. Strong close of the week within the top value area (price has retraced >80% of April’s bearish wave).
The only technical weakness on the chart is the monthly consolidation. Bears might try to defend April’s high ( 524 ), but unless they receive support from economic reports coming this week, their position looks very vulnerable.
An important level for the bulls is 515 , where the price pivoted on Wednesday after a pre-market sell-off. Important economic data will be released on Tuesday and Wednesday, which could cause volatility in both directions. But as long as there are no major negative surprises, pullbacks are buying opportunities
Disclaimer
I don't give trading or investing advice, just sharing my thoughts.
Trading Plan for Friday, May 17th, 2024Trading Plan for Friday, May 17th, 2024
Market Sentiment: Uncertain, as the market shows signs of fatigue after 10 consecutive green days. Traders are anticipating a pullback and adjusting strategies accordingly.
Important Note: It's OPEX Friday, which often leads to choppy price action and pinning (price moving a lot but ending near the starting point). Exercise caution and be prepared for potential traps.
Key Supports
Immediate Supports: 5309-11 (major), 5294 (major)
Major Supports: 5271 (major), 5249 (major), 5217-20 (major)
Key Resistances
Near-term Resistance: 5329-31 (major), 5342 (major), 5361 (major)
Major Resistances: 5398-5400 (major), 5433-36 (major)
Trading Strategy
Post-Rally Caution: The market is overdue for a correction after the recent parabolic move. Prioritize protecting profits and consider reducing exposure.
Long Opportunities: Look for failed breakdowns at 5309-11, followed by a reclaim above 5314, as a potential long entry point.
Short Opportunities: As always, avoid shorting green candles and breaking trends. If considering shorts, look for a test and bounce/failed breakdown at 5309-11, then consider shorting at 5306 for a move down the levels, exiting all runners at 5294. Proceed with extreme caution as shorting in an uptrend is risky.
Level-to-Level Focus: The breakout from the downtrend channel has created a volatile environment. Trade the provided support and resistance levels rigorously and take profits aggressively.
Bull Case
Holding Support: Defending 5309-11 is crucial for maintaining short-term bullish momentum. A hold here would allow for further base-building and potentially another leg up to 5330, 5342.
Bear Case
Breakdown Signals: A convincing break below 5309-11 triggers a more significant dip. Consider shorting at 5306 after a bounce/failed breakdown confirmation, with level-to-level profit-taking.
News: Top Stories for May 17th, 2024
🌍 Eurozone Financial Stability Risks: The European Central Bank has issued warnings regarding the fragility of financial stability in the Eurozone amidst ongoing geopolitical tensions and policy uncertainties during a significant election year.
💼 U.S. Defense Spending Surge: Recent U.S. military budget allocations have reached new heights, with significant implications for global military and defense strategies.
💰 China's Treasury Sell-Off: In a notable shift in financial strategy, China has reduced its holdings of U.S. Treasury and agency bonds, marking a record sell-off that underscores evolving trade and economic relations.
📉 Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Strategy: The Federal Reserve signals a cautious approach towards interest rate adjustments, reflecting ongoing concerns about inflation and economic recovery.
📈 Global Trade Dynamics: A significant rebound in global trade is anticipated, driven by easing inflation and robust economic activities in key regions, promising a shift in international trade flows and economic recovery.
SPX500 potentially setting up before cash openThe longer-term SPX 500 daily chart is sitting in a bullish channel with positive technical indications. The shorter-term hourly is heading towards positivity, however there need to be some developments to confirm.
This video is intended for the users of Stratos Markets Limited, Stratos Trading Pty. Limited and Stratos Global LLC, (collectively “FXCM Group”).
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”), previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com) :
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com) :
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763). Please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy.
Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website:
Stratos Markets Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com
Stratos Europe Ltd clients please see: www.fxcm.com
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC clients please see: www.fxcm.com
Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
S&P 500 FORECASTThe current bearish trend is projected to reach 5280 and 5266 if the price remains below the pivot point at 5300. However, if it breaks above 5300, confirmed by a 4-hour candle closing above this level, it could potentially target higher levels at 5311, 5328, and then 5345.
Key Levels:
Pivot Line: 5300
Bullish Lines: 5311, 5328, 5345
Bearish Lines: 5280, 5266, 5220
SPY S&P500 etf Bearish DivergenceIf you haven't already purchased SPY after the 2023 forecast: forecast:https://www.tradingview.com/chart/idea/l6U1M9dJ/
then it's important to be aware that there's a significant bearish divergence in the RSI of SPY, the S&P 500 ETF, which initiated at $469.
Anticipating a technical retracement to $495, given its prolonged period of being overbought!