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SPX (S&P 500 Index)

S&P is Shaping a Bull Flag While Awaiting the FED DecisionLast week was characterized by increasing selling pressure that hindered upward price progression but failed to trigger any substantial pullback. The market has not even retested the previous consolidation zone ( 598-601 ), which highlights the weakness of the sellers. Looking at the daily chart, the recent price action resembles a bull flag, favoring a continuation of the upward trend. For sellers to demonstrate their strength, they must not only break this pattern to the downside but also breach the 598 support level and drive the price further down to 594 . Much will depend on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision this week, alongside the release of key economic data. The most favorable outcome for the bulls would be a 0.25% rate cut. Any other scenario could spark concerns—either about an impending recession (if the cut is larger) or about a prolonged high-interest-rate environment (if the cut is absent). The market outlook remains bullish; however, the current price level is not ideal for new long positions. Buyers would be better served by waiting for a more meaningful pullback (e.g., to the 600 level), provided it is not driven by a negative shift in economic sentiment.
AMEX:SPY
by hermes_trisme
#202450 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500 e-mini futurestl;dr sp500 e-mini futures: Same as for dax. Shallow two-legged pullback to the moving average is a perfect buy signal once we trade above 6087 again. I have targets at 6300 or higher and the chart is as clear as it gets. Only a daily close below 6000 would change the outlook. Quote from last week: comment: Chart is clear, do not look for shorts until we see bigger selling pressure. Current structure has a lot of room to the upside, if you like it or not. My tl;dr covered most of it. comment: Nothing has changed from last week. Market went nowhere and it has formed a perfect very shallow two-legged pullback to the ema. Above 6080 it’s a clear buy signal and I can see this going for 6300 into year end. No bearish thoughts, since bulls are in full control and best bears could do last week was a 70 point pullback. That is as weak as it gets. current market cycle: Bull trend - very late key levels: 6000 - 6300 bull case: Chart is still the same and structure did not change. Once we break above, long it for 6150+. Nothing more to say about this. Invalidation is below 6000. bear case: Dax outlook covers also sp500 and nasdaq. Bears are not doing anything and until they come around big time, only look for longs. Bears need a daily close below 6000 for me to reevaluate. Invalidation is above 6120. outlook last week: short term: I won’t put out a bullish outlook after such a climactic rally without any decent pullbacks. You can only go wrong here. Neutral until bears come around and if the rally continues, it will be without me. If bears come around, first target is obviously 6000 and there I expect another bounce before market decides if it wants to go below 6000 or not. → Last Sunday we traded 6099 and now we are at 6055. Good outlook. short term: Neutral until we break above 6080 and then 6120. Above 6120, market has to find a top and that could be all the way up to 6300. medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-15: Will write a new outlook for 2025 next week. current swing trade: None chart update: Removed the potential bearish two-legged correction. Only bullish targets remain for now.
CME_MINI:MES1!Long
by priceactiontds
S&P500 INDEX Technical Analysis & Outlook Ahead of Fed DecisionS&P 500 Technical Analysis The market is approaching a key week with potential volatility driven by the Fed Rate Decision and GDP data. Here's a breakdown of the scenarios: Bullish Scenario: Continuation of the Uptrend: Key Levels: - Breakout Support: 6022 - Pivot Point: 6058 - Resistance Line: 6099 and 6143. Conditions for Bullish Continuation: - Price must remain above 6022 (Breakout Support Line). - Stabilization above the 6099 resistance will confirm upward momentum toward 6143 (next resistance). - This move would support a continuation of the uptrend toward a new ATH. Fed Rate Impact: - If the Fed cuts rates by 25 bps, the market may interpret this as dovish, fueling bullish sentiment and risk appetite. Bearish Scenario: Continuation of Downtrend: Key Levels: - Breakout Support Line: 6022 - First Support: 5971 - Next Supports: 5932 and 5863. Conditions for Bearish Reversal: - Price must break and close below 6022 on a 4-hour candle. - A break below this level opens the door to the next support at 5971. - Further bearish momentum could drive the price toward the Strong Support Zone around 5863. Fed Rate Impact: - If the Fed holds rates steady at 4.75% or signals hawkish intentions (e.g., no future rate cuts), bearish momentum may build due to reduced liquidity expectations. Trend Outlook: - Uptrend Continuation: Above 6022 and confirmed by a breakout above 6099. - Downtrend Continuation: Below 6022, targeting 5971 and lower levels. Key Summary: Bullish Confirmation: Hold above 6022 and break above 6099. Bearish Signal: Break and close below 6022, with lower targets of 5971 and 5932. Fed & GDP Impact: Monitor Fed decision for rate cuts (bullish) or no change (bearish).
OANDA:SPX500USD
by SroshMayi
SPX × US10Y: A Signal for Market Tops and Economic Shifts1. Combining Equity Levels and Yield Sensitivity SPX (S&P 500) reflects equity market strength and investor sentiment. When SPX is rising, it typically indicates optimism or strong earnings growth expectations. US10Y (10-year Treasury yield) reflects the cost of capital and inflation expectations. Rising yields can signify tightening financial conditions or economic overheating. When you multiply these two metrics, the product magnifies the impact of simultaneous market exuberance (high SPX) and rising yields (high US10Y). A very high SPX × US10Y value could indicate a market environment where valuations are stretched, and higher yields are increasing the cost of capital—often a precursor to market corrections. 2. Historical Patterns In prior market tops, both equity valuations (SPX) and yields (US10Y) often peak together before significant corrections: Dot-Com Bubble (2000): SPX was highly elevated, and rising yields signaled an end to loose monetary conditions. 2007-2008 Financial Crisis: SPX was at record highs, and US10Y yields were climbing, reflecting tighter monetary policy. 2021-2022 Post-Pandemic: SPX hit record highs, and yields started to rise sharply as inflation surged, leading to a market correction. The SPX × US10Y value tends to peak during these moments, providing a warning signal of market excess. If you are using the SPX × US10Y (multiplication) instead of division, it can still serve as a market indicator, though the mechanics are slightly different. Here’s why the product of the S&P 500 and the 10-year Treasury yield (SPX × US10Y) might be relevant for predicting market tops: 3. Economic Logic Behind the Indicator A. Reflects Cost of Capital Rising US10Y yields increase the discount rate used to value stocks. High SPX × US10Y suggests equities are vulnerable to revaluation if yields continue to rise. B. Overheating Economy High SPX × US10Y often coincides with an overheating economy, where inflation pressures push yields higher, while equities are driven by optimism. This imbalance can quickly reverse if monetary tightening occurs. C. Peak Growth Phase A peak in the SPX × US10Y value might signal the economy is at the late stage of the business cycle, where growth slows, and equities face headwinds. 4. Why It May Predict Market Tops Valuation Excess: A high SPX × US10Y product reflects elevated valuations combined with tightening financial conditions. Transition to Risk-Off Environment: Rising yields make bonds more attractive relative to stocks, potentially triggering equity outflows. Fed Policy Influence: If yields are rising due to Federal Reserve tightening, equity markets often react negatively as borrowing costs rise and liquidity is withdrawn.
SP:SPX
by ILuminosity
$NNE Flagging and Ready to Resume Uptrend?NASDAQ:NNE may be one for your watchlist. This one has had a nice uptrend since its IPO sell-off and has put in a series of Higher Lows (HL). It has just tested the 50 DMA (red) and has a nice green hammer candle off that area. It looks to be struggling with the 10 and 20 DMA’s right now. I have an alert set on the upper downtrend line. Should that trigger, I will go to a lower time frame chart to look for a good entry with a tight stop. There could be resistance at the AVWAP from the most recent high which is something to be aware of. In summary I am looking for this one to continue its uptrend after this shake-out and consolidation. All TBD.
NASDAQ:NNELong
by jaxdog
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 12-12: Breakaway PatternToday's video goes into detail related to the general SPY/QQQ trending and the continued potential for a price Anomaly Event. It is likely that the markets continue a Santa Rally phase - attempting to push higher throughout the end of 2024 and into 2025. I want everyone to understand that the anomaly event I keep suggesting may happen is an outlier event. It would be driven by some news, political, financial or other type of market event. If that event does not happen, then the markets will likely continue to push higher and higher. So, remember, the markets want to push higher into the typical Santa Rally. My Anomaly event would be a potential outlier event - driving a moderate pullback in price. Gold and Silver should move into a moderate topping pattern today - possibly pulling downward a big. This would be a goo setup for the next rally phase higher. That rally may come tomorrow or into early next week. Bitcoin is trapped within a consolidation range. The rally yesterday was nice to see, but right now we are seeing Bitcoin struggle below resistance. So, we still need to be cautious about rolling downward. Yet, the general trend for Bitcoin right now is upward. Get Some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
4
Are we about to confirm a Super-Cycle event in the US Markets?In this week’s update, I’d like to delve into something that I consider probably one of the most important, but in the realm of my career, probably one of the last consequential decisions I will make in my time being affiliated with Markets. The potential of a Super-cycle topping event. This next week is my birthday. That got me thinking about my career. I first became professionally involved in the markets in 1990. But in truth, that story started when I first watched the 1987 movie “Wall Street”, starring Michael Douglas and Charlie Sheen. I remember thinking to myself while watching this movie when it first aired …” that’s what I want to spend my life doing.” Probably not too far and away from many of you reading this, who caught the trading bug. Your origin story probably mimics mine to some extent. But I hailed from proud Austrian/Spanish descendants who settled in NYC in the 1930’s, and didn’t have much, and at the time, my aspirations seemed like a stretch. I went to college and majored in accounting as originally, I thought I would be a CPA. However, an internship at a big 8 accounting firm in my junior year called that aspiration into question almost immediately. My supervisor at the time commented to me…” you interns should pay us rather than the other way around ”. I assumed he was referring to the aspect that interns only complicate things, make his job harder, and I distinctly remember what a jerk this guy was, and that if the industry is filled with guys like this, I had little desire to join that cast of characters. Did my future entail me becoming this guy? It’s funny how life introduces you to people to guide, or divert you, from your chosen path…but nonetheless, becoming a CPA was a dream that I now felt at odds with. That was devasting for me because I felt I was back to square one…until I caught that movie. Leaving the theater, I was captivated, and so clear-eyed as to what I would spend the rest of my life doing. I simply would not be deterred. I got started at an investment banking firm under the tutelage of a senior advisor in the private placement division. I was fascinated by this transaction because it was (for the most part) a zero-risk proposition. I would inform some of the high-net-worth clientele of the firm that by buying restricted 144-stock prior to the IPO at a massive discount to the pricing date of the IPO, their stock would immediately become eligible for sale on Day 1 and at the opening price. The returns were typically 100% or more, and in a 6–24-month period, depending upon how complex the business was and the interest from the selling syndicate. It got to the point after several years, if the private placement allotment was GETTEX:25M or $50M I could place that entire allotment in a 10-hour work day and with only a handful of phone calls. The largest amount of time that passed was between my initial phone call and finally getting the client on the phone. The previous history of being involved in these transactions was a "no salesmanship on my part" required. The calls went, “I have $5M for private placement how much do you want”? I never heard objections like the retail brokers heard… ”I need to discuss this with my wife. or I’m going through a rough patch and have no discretionary funds.” It was here is my wiring instructions, you hit the firm’s account by COB at 4pm EST and the shares are yours. Fail to follow through on the wire, no problem… but I’ll never call you again ”. It wasn’t long before I was informed that secretaries were instructed if I called…regardless of what my client was involved with, put the call through. However, what I constantly thought about was how unfair the risk/reward was to all those who never had the chance to participate in these secretive transactions. The ups and downs of the markets had to make sense…and it wasn’t until 2012 that became affiliated with Elliott’s work. Previous to 2012, the technical analytical perspective was mocked as wishful thinking, or voodoo like. The prevailing thought process was the random walk theory, Dow theory, etc…I was a loyal follower of John Murphy (Founder of stockcharts.com) and in truth he turned me on to Elliott Wave Theory. The tenants of EWT made sense to me. They were routed in mathematics, and Fibonacci, and as a former accounting major, I felt were well within my scope of understanding. The by-product of that relationship was the absolute fascination with investor sentiment and the repeating patterns they tend to create, over and over again ("Self Similar" as Elliott put it in his original work). Fast forward 10 years and in 2022 after an exhaustive analytical look at the sum of the price action associated with the SPX500, I realized that the odds we were entering an area of a super-cycle wave (III) top was incredibly high. Now understand the magnitude of this observation of mine. If my analysis was correct, the last super-cycle wave (II) would have been experienced in the late summer of 1932. Even if we get alternation, this will be the trade of a lifetime. Not necessarily to be short the top, but to be amply prepared. I have discussed this notion with my members for two years so far. Heck, it was the leading reason why I founded EWTDaily.com. If I am right, this will affect every aspect of your financial lives, and by extension, probably your life in general. This week’s update is not to speculate what the causes are, or will be, of such an event. None of us know, and the reasons one could speculatively insert as a cause are adding up each and every month. However, to claim that my members were prepared, is all that matters to me.
SP:SPX
by maikisch
3
S&P 500 Analysis: Bearish Momentum Ahead of CPI ReleaseS&P 500 Technical Analysis The price dropped as we mentioned in the previous idea from 6058 and still has bearish momentum. Now, as long as trades below 6058 touch 6022, stability under 6022 supports dropping toward 5971, especially if the CPI released is more than expected, which is 2.7%. A 4-hour candle should close above 6058 to have a bullish trend until 6099, in the case of realizing CPI results in less than 2.7%. Key Levels: Pivot Point: 6058 Resistance Levels: 6073, 6099, 6145 Support Levels: 6022, 5971, 5932 Trend Outlook: Downward while below 6058
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by SroshMayi
S&P500 - The Most Important Channel Breakout!S&P500 ( TVC:SPX ) is retesting a crucial breakout area: Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻 During 2024, the S&P500 rallied more than 25% after we already saw a very bullish year of 2023. However, momentum is always more likely to continue and since the S&P500 is currently retesting a major breakout level, this bullish momentum could lead to a final breakout. Levels to watch: $6.000 Keep your long term vision, Philip (BasicTrading)
TVC:SPXLong
by basictradingtv
18
S&P500 What will happen in 2025 and 2026 based on this pattern?The S&P500 index (SPX) has had an excellent run since the time (August 28, see chart below) we introduced the following piece of analysis on the similarities between the 2015 - 2017 fractal and today's 2022 - 2024: As you see, the index rose by around +8.50% from 5625 to 6100 in only 3.5 months. We are still expecting a local top just below the 3.0 Fibonacci extension, with our Target in tact at 6500. If it continues to replicate the past pattern into the 2018 fractal as well, then we may experience the last correction of the Bull Cycle around March 2025 towards the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) as it happened in February - March 2018 and then the final rally to a new All Time High (ATH) towards the end of the year (October - December 2025). What this pattern shows, and what we've presented to you as a possible scenario on previous analyses, is for a new Bear Cycle to begin in 2026, four years after the Inflation Crisis of 2022, that will once more test the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), which is the market's long-term Support. As a side-note to investors, it is important to understand that corrections are cyclical and crises systemic. Long-term, multi-year patterns like this, help us understand with a certain degree of efficiency, when to enter and when to exit. Timing is at times (especially on such long-term horizons), more important than pricing. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:SPXLong
by TradingShot
4
S&P 500: Technical Insights and Trend ForecastS&P 500 Technical Analysis The price has dropped from its previous significant high and has already broken the key level at 6058. It is currently attempting to reclaim this level. As long as trades below 6058 will touch 6022. Bullish Scenario, A 4-hour candle close above 6058 will signal a potential reversal, targeting higher resistance levels. Key Levels: Pivot Point: 6058 Resistance Levels: 6073, 6099, 6145 Support Levels: 6022, 5971, 5932 Trend Outlook: The trend remains downward while the price is below 6058. Previous idea:
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by SroshMayi
2024-12-09 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr sp500 e-mini futures - Neutral. Don’t short new lows because this is not a strong bear trend. Wait for pullbacks. I’d be surprised if we hit 6100 tomorrow but I can’t rule it out. My next bear target is 6035 for tomorrow and there is a good chance we print 6000 or lower this week. sp500 e-mini futures comment : Strongest bull bars that late in the trend? Tough. I have two higher targets still. First is the bull trend line to around 6160 and second is a measured move target to 6300. Bears are doing nothing but it’s also unlikely that we just continue higher in this tight of a channel on the daily chart. Market is on it’s last legs up and these windfall profits will get taken off the table before they disappear. You don’t get bullish this late in a trend, you get cautious. current market cycle: bull trend - late and will end soon key levels: 6000 - 6170 bull case: Bulls did not much today to fight it. Profit taking was expected and I can’t see many bulls buying 6035 but rather waiting for 6000. Not much else to I can come up with here. Invalidation is below 6000. bear case: Bears want to test 6000 and the daily 20ema near the bull trend line. 3 Perfect reasons to expect 6000-6030 to be hit tomorrow/Wednesday. I do not expect market to just sell off but rather hurt many traders on both sides first, by chopping back and forth. Perfect for bears would be to stay below 6084. Invalidation is above 6120. short term: Not shorting the lows but looking for shorts on pullbacks. I want to see 6035 and 6000 or lower this week. medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-16: So the top definitely qualifies as a blow-off top but the question if we continue further up, is still valid. It is possible that we are already inside the correction and if we continue below 5860, I highly doubt bulls can get above 6000 again. Given the current market structure, I won’t turn bear because the risk of another retest of the highs or even higher ones are just too big. current swing trade: Nope trade of the day: Bar 13 - 23 was a good first leg and strong enough to expect some follow through. Bar 35 was a good signal bar and bar 38 should have been your entry bar, once it strongly broke below 6089.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
S&P500: Crossed under the 4H MA50. Bearish.S&P500 is headed towards a neutral 1D technical outlook (RSI = 59.952, MACD = 52.430, ADX = 39.810) as today the price hit the 4H MA50 after more than 2 weeks. Every time the index crossed under the 4H MA50 since October 21st, it declined more to the 4H MA200. The long term pattern remains a Channel Up but short term the strenght behind the 4H RSI drop favors going short. Target a potential contact point with the 4H MA200 (TP = 5,960). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by InvestingScope
SPX: another ATHThe positive track for S&P 500 continued for another week. The index reached a fresh new all time highest level during the previous week, at the level of 6.090. November jobs data were in the center of attention of investors, which witholded the positive sentiment during the first week of December. The US economy added 227K new jobs, which was modestly higher from the market estimate. Despite the relatively stable jobs market, the CME FedWatch Tool is showing the expectation of market participants that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 bps at their December meeting, with 85% odds. Tech companies were again in the spotlight of investors. However, this week, same as previous, retailers were also in the focus. It comes after a summary of estimates of sales for holidays in the US, where Black Friday shopping was the first estimate. The traditional New Year holidays season is coming as of the end of December, from which retailers should additionally benefit. At the dawn of a new year, HSBC provided their estimates for the year 2025. As per their analysts, the S&P 500 could continue to reach higher levels. HSBC estimate is the level of 6.700. They are supporting their view on the index, with the slow but resilient US economy, “and some margin expansions”.
SP:SPX
by XBTFX
Riding US Exceptionalism to 2025 with Long SPY & Protective PutsSize begets size. Records are being shattered. US Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) have attracted >USD 1 trillion inflows YTD 2024 for the first time in history. Pro-business policies under President-elect Donald Trump continues to entice investors into US equities. US stocks are at record levels. Is that a concern? Yes. But, unlike other rallies which tend to be concentrated and narrow, this rally has been broad. Gains are visible across industries & segments. The “Trump Bump” has sent S&P 500 above 6,000 for the first time in history. It has attracted additional USD 140 billion of funds into US equities since US elections. Trump’s agenda promise – pro-growth policies, lighter regulations, & lower taxes continue to keep US equities buoyant. The risk of a fall gets elevated when soaring at heights. Long position in US equities pose risks. Among many alternatives, protective puts using CME Micro E-Mini S&P 500 options is compelling given sanguine implied volatility expectations. US EQUITIES EXPECTED TO DELIVER SUPERIOR EARNINGS In the short term, markets are a voting machine. In the long run, they are weighing machines. Regardless of which machine it is, US equities remain unrivalled now. Momentum and fundamentals both favour a long positioning in US stocks. Stock markets value growth in earnings and profitability. US firms continue to deliver superbly on both. Earnings have risen strong and expected to expand even stronger in 2025. US firms as represented by S&P500 stocks are expected to clock 14.8% in EPS growth (compared to 9.8% in 2024). In sharp contrast, the MSCI AC World ex-US is estimated to deliver 10.8% in EPS growth. ARE US EQUITIES OVERVALUED? Ramping up investments or buying into equities when valuations are soaring can give cold feet to any investor. Are we in bubble territory? Perhaps. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are at record highs. But it is not without justification. Rising earnings, promise of artificial intelligence, and American Exceptionalism unleashes the animal spirits. For now, will the bubble pop? Perhaps not yet. Instead, the bubble may continue to grow in 2025. Timing the markets is hard. Timing a bubble pop is harder still. During such times, investors must navigate markets prudently with adequate risk guardrails. Significant capex is being poured into Gen AI investments. If commensurate results are not spectacular enough, stock prices could correct sharply to reflect that disappointment. US EQUITIES ARE EXPENSIVE. BUY THEM ANYWAY IS WHAT ANALYSTS ARE SAYING. TINA is back in action. TINA stands for “There Is No Alternative.” Where else in the world, apart from the US, is an economy that is large enough, safe, resilient, and offers the greatest upside to growth. No where else. That is American exceptionalism. Solid earnings growth expectations, rising productivity, consumers in good health, pro-business policy expectations, and light touch regulations collectively contribute to analysts’ overweight rating on the US equities. Fund flows into ETFs vindicates market expectations. US equities are expensive. It may get even more expensive in 2025. WSJ reported recently that 12-month forward P/E ratios are at 22.3x earnings. S&P 500 forecasts for end of 2025 remain vastly bullish ranging from 6400 to 7000. In sharp contrast, Peter Berezin of BCA Research expects sharp correction with S&P falling to as low as 4100 by end of 2025. Source: The Street FEAR GUAGE REMAINS SANGUINE Rising asset prices are typically accompanied by elevated implied volatility levels pointing to mounting cost of securing downside protection. Intriguingly that is not the case for US equities for now. The Wall Street Fear Index – the VIX – hovers around multiyear lows. HYPOTHETICAL PORTFOLIO HEDGING SETUP Driven by American Exceptionalism, Earnings Growth Expectations, and the Promise of AI, US equities remain compelling. Risk hits hardest when one least expects it. Securing downside protection when it is cheap is what astute investors do. This paper illustrates method for hedging US equities portfolio represented by 50 units of SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust holdings (SPY). For simplicity, this paper assumes that a portfolio manager acquires 50 SPY units at the closing price as of 6th Dec 2024 paying USD 608 per unit valuing the portfolio at USD 30,400. The manager is willing to accept a 5% drawdown and seeks protection for price corrections below. In this case investors can utilize a protective put, which is an options strategy where an investor buys a put option while holding the underlying asset. It acts as insurance, limiting potential losses if the asset's price drops. Portfolio manager buys protective put options using CME Micro E-Mini S&P 500 Options (Micro S&P Options) to hedge downside risk. Deploying CME Micro S&P Options expiring on 20th Jun 2025, the portfolio manager buys protective puts at a strike of 5,850 which corresponds to approximately 5% below the underlying futures trading at 6,165 points. Based on the closing price on Dec 6, the portfolio manager will have to pay a premium of 124 points (USD 620 = USD 5/index point x 124 index points) for one lot of Micro S&P Options to protect a portfolio of USD 30,400. The pay-off for the portfolio manager under various S&P 500 levels as of 20th Jun 2025 are illustrated below: *Put options gain in value when the index drops below the strike price. If index remains above the strike levels, the maximum loss from put options are limited to the premium. This non-linearity in pay-off enables portfolio managers to limit downside even as they can continue to participate in the upside. MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme . DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
CME_MINI:MES1!Long
by mintdotfinance
#202449 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500 e-mini futurestl;dr sp500 e-mini futures: Hard to be bullish after this leg up but the structure is clear. We have two big trend lines running up to 6300 and a measured move target. I’d love to see a deeper pullback to at least 5900 but as of now that’s a pipe dream for the bears. The price is truth and it just screams bullishness. Last pullback was 170 points and that would bring us to 5940, so close enough. Can we really go up to 6300? I don’t know but it would be naive to say that we could not. We made 6100 and that already is the most overvalued the market has ever been. So obviously we can go further up. If we print 5900 on Monday, I would not be surprised one tiny bit but that is just much more unlikely than 6300 at this point. Quote from last week: comment: Bullish bias I had, bullish it was. Again. Market wanted up and it got it. Is this stopping here? Probably not. Look for longs. comment : Chart is clear, do not look for shorts until we see bigger selling pressure. Current structure has a lot of room to the upside, if you like it or not. My tl;dr covered most of it. current market cycle: Bull trend - very late key levels: 6000 - 6300 bull case: Bulls buy it all but it’s climactic. They still see multiple trend lines leading to even higher prices and as long as this keeps going, they keep buying. The first pullback will likely touch the daily 20ema soon and I do not expect it to just slice through it. Bulls buying any small pullback, made money for 3 weeks now, they won’t stop all of a sudden but at some point next week, they need to start taking profits to reduce risk. Invalidation is below 6000. bear case: Same as for dax. Until bears come around much stronger, everything in here is low probability. I would prefer a huge dip down to 5900 before we get another rally up to 6100 or even 6300. Next week will probably be the most important in December. Anything below 5900 would certainly put a huge limitation on targets above 6100. Invalidation is above 5900. outlook last week: short term: Bullish all the way. If market closes below 5900 I would turn neutral and daily close below 5800 would probably be the end of my bullish thesis and I turn bear. → Last Sunday we traded 6051 and now we are at 6099. Good outlook. short term: I won’t put out a bullish outlook after such a climactic rally without any decent pullbacks. You can only go wrong here. Neutral until bears come around and if the rally continues, it will be without me. If bears come around, first target is obviously 6000 and there I expect another bounce before market decides if it wants to go below 6000 or not. medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-24: 6150 and 6500 are my last targets for the bulls before this bubble begins to pop or at least deflate. current swing trade: None chart update: Added a potential two-legged correction for next week but not later (my best guess as of now)
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds