Sideways Markets? Heres why Im still getting paidSideways Market? Here’s Why I’m Still Getting Paid | SPX Market Analysis 12 Feb 2025
The markets may be moving like molasses, but that’s no problem when you’re getting paid to wait. While others are watching charts in frustration, our Theta decay is quietly dripping profits into our accounts. No rush, no panic—just letting the market do its thing while we collect.
Let’s break it down…
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SPX Deeper Dive Analysis:
📉 Markets Are Moving Sideways—And That’s OK
SPX is stuck in a range, drifting aimlessly while traders wait for direction. But unlike those who need a big breakout to make money, we’re already profiting while standing still.
💰 Theta Decay – The Power of Getting Paid to Wait
While the market meanders, options lose value
That lost value turns into profits for our income trades
Instead of hoping for a massive move, we collect steady gains
📌 The Current Market View
We still anticipate a move from the upper range to the lower range 📉
No need to force trades—our edge is patience
If SPX moves, great. If not, we still win
🔑 Why Income Trading Wins in a Sideways Market
Unlike traditional trading methods where:
❌ You need a strong directional move to profit
❌ You rely on timing the market perfectly
❌ You risk getting stopped out too soon
We simply:
✅ Let Theta decay work in our favour
✅ Profit even when the market goes nowhere
✅ Have time on our side—no need for constant action
📌 Final Takeaway?
The market may be stuck, but profits aren’t. Theta is working, our positions are intact, and there’s no stress—just steady gains.
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Fun Fact:
📢 Did you know? The S&P 500 has spent nearly 80% of its time trading sideways rather than trending up or down.
💡 The Lesson? The market isn’t always moving—but smart traders don’t need it to. That’s why income trading thrives when others struggle.
SPX (S&P 500 Index)
Nightly $SPX / $SPY Scenarios for 2.12.2025🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News:
🇺🇸🏛️ Fed Chair Powell Testifies: At 10:00 AM ET, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will testify before Congress, providing insights into the economic outlook and potential monetary policy adjustments.
📊 Key Data Releases:
📅 Wednesday, Feb 12:
🏢 Consumer Price Index (CPI) (8:30 AM ET):
Forecast: +0.3% MoM; Previous: +0.4% MoM.
📈 Core CPI (8:30 AM ET):
Forecast: +0.3% MoM; Previous: +0.2% MoM.
📉 CPI (YoY) (Jan):
Expected 2.9%; Previous 2.9%.
📉 Core CPI (YoY) (Jan):
Expected 3.1%; Previous 3.2%.
🛢️ EIA Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 AM ET):
Previous: +8.664M.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPX #SPY #daytrading #charting #trendtao
There's a storm on my chartHi everyone,
I see two possibilities.
Blue or Brown ? (we have to see!)
Technical Section:
The Blue Path: S&P500 is completing the fifth wave of the 5th wave of a five-wave rally.
Wave 5 = 2.618 x length of Wave 1
Wave 3 = 2 x length of Wave 1
Target = 5790
The Brown Path: S&P500 is completing the fifth wave of the 3rd wave of a five-wave rally.
Wave 3 = 4.236 x length of Wave 1
Target = 6440
Bearish Bias Locked int - Now We wait for the dropBearish Bias Locked In – Now We Wait for the Drop | SPX Market Analysis 11 Feb 2025
The bullish chapter is closed, and our focus is now entirely bearish as we eye a move toward 5980. Futures are already pointing lower, teasing a 20-point drop at the open.
Will we get the full range move, or will SPX keep stalling?
Either way, we’re locked and loaded—now, we wait for the market to tip its hand.
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SPX Deeper Dive Analysis:
📉 Bearish Positions Locked In
SPX is now fully bearish, with bullish trades wrapped up profitably or at break-even following the bear turn signal. This continues to aligns perfectly with our 6 money-making patterns, where we expect a move from range highs to range lows.
📊 Futures Hint at a Lower Open
Overnight futures are already down 20 points, suggesting:
✅ A weaker SPX open
✅ A potential move toward 5980
✅ Confirmation that momentum is shifting lower
🔍 ADD Still Has Room to Fall
Yesterday’s ADD reading hit the upper bullish extreme
That leaves plenty of downside wiggle room
If ADD pushes lower, indexes could also follow through
⏳ For Now, It’s a Waiting Game
The bearish setup is in place
Price action will dictate the next move
A clean range move to 5980 remains the primary target
🚀 Key Takeaway? The market is aligning with expectations, but we still need follow-through to lock in profits.
Fun Fact:
📢 Did you know? In 1987, the Dow dropped 22.6% in a single day—the biggest percentage crash in history. That’s the equivalent of the S&P 500 dropping over 1,000 points today!
💡 The Lesson? Even in structured markets, major moves can happen fast. This is why having a rule-based trading system keeps you ahead of the chaos.
S&P500 consolidation is over. Massive rally starting.The S&P500 index (SPX) has been trading within a Channel Up pattern since the October 27 2023 Low. For almost the past 30 days it has been ranging sideways on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). The index is no stranger to this at all.
On the contrary, this is a common Consolidation Phase that SPX has been through another 3 times within the Channel Up. As you can see, every time the index recovered from a Bearish Leg below the 1D MA50, it consolidated for around 1 month above the 1D MA50 and then resumed the Bullish Leg to complete at least a +15% rise from the bottom.
The 1D RSI sequences among all those fractals (including today's) are identical. As a result, we are preparing for a massive rally any day now, expecting a new +15% Bullish Leg to reach at least 6600.
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💸💸💸💸💸💸
👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Nightly $SPX / $SPY Scenarios for 2.11.2025🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News:
🇺🇸🏛️ Fed Chair Powell Testifies – Insights into economic outlook and monetary policy.
📊 Key Data Releases:
🏢 NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (6:00 AM ET): Previous: 102.7.
📈 Redbook Index (8:55 AM ET): Previous: +5.7% YoY.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPX #SPY #daytrading #charting #trendtao
Sector Rotation Analysis: A Practical Tutorial Using TradingViewSector Rotation Analysis: A Practical Tutorial Using TradingView
Overview
Sector rotation is an investment strategy that involves reallocating capital among different sectors of the economy to align with their performance during various phases of the economic cycle. While academic studies have shown that sector rotation does not consistently outperform the market after accounting for transaction costs, it remains a popular framework for portfolio management.
This tutorial provides a step-by-step guide to analyzing sector rotation and identifying leading and lagging sectors using TradingView .
Understanding Sector Rotation and Economic Cycles
The economy moves through distinct phases, and each phase tends to favor specific sectors:
1. Expansion : Rapid economic growth with rising consumer confidence.
- Leading Sectors: Technology AMEX:XLK , Consumer Discretionary AMEX:XLY , Industrials AMEX:XLI
2. Peak : Growth slows, and inflation may rise.
- Leading Sectors: Energy AMEX:XLE , Materials AMEX:XLB
3. Contraction : Economic activity declines, and unemployment rises.
- Leading Sectors: Utilities AMEX:XLU , Healthcare AMEX:XLV , Consumer Staples AMEX:XLP
4. Trough : The economy begins recovering from a recession.
- Leading Sectors: Financials AMEX:XLF , Real Estate AMEX:XLRE
Step 1: Use TradingView to Monitor Economic Indicators
Economic indicators provide context for sector performance:
GDP Growth : Signals expansion or contraction.
Interest Rates : Rising rates favor Financials; falling rates benefit Real Estate.
Inflation : High inflation supports Energy and Materials.
Step 2: Analyze Sector Performance Using Relative Strength
Relative Strength RS compares a sector's performance against a benchmark index like the
SP:SPX This helps identify whether a sector is leading or lagging.
How to Calculate RS in TradingView
Open a chart for a sector TSXV:ETF , such as AMEX:XLK Technology.
Add SP:SPX as a comparison symbol by clicking the Compare ➕ button.
Analyze the RS line:
- If RS trends upward, the sector is outperforming.
- If RS trends downward, the sector is underperforming.
Using Indicators
e.g.: You may add the Sector Relative Strength indicator from TradingView’s public library. This tool ranks multiple sectors by their relative strength against SP:SPX
Additionally, you can use the RS Rating indicator by @Fred6724, which calculates the Relative Strength Rating (1 to 99) of a stock or sector based on its 12-month performance compared to others in a selected index.
Example
In early 2021, during economic recovery, AMEX:XLK 's RS rose above SP:SPX , signaling Technology was leading.
Step 3: Validate Sector Trends with Technical Indicators
Technical indicators can confirm sector momentum and provide entry/exit signals:
Moving Averages
Use 50-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages SMA.
If a sector TSXV:ETF trades above both SMAs, it indicates bullish momentum.
Relative Strength Index RSI
RSI > 70 suggests overbought conditions; <30 indicates oversold conditions.
MACD Moving Average Convergence Divergence
Look for bullish crossovers where the MACD line crosses above the signal line.
Example
During the inflation surge in 2022, AMEX:XLE Energy traded above its 200-day SMA while RSI hovered near 70, confirming strong momentum in the Energy sector.
Step 4: Compare Multiple Sectors Simultaneously
TradingView allows you to overlay multiple ETFs on one chart for direct comparison:
Open AMEX:SPY as your benchmark chart.
Add ETFs like AMEX:XLK , AMEX:XLY , AMEX:XLU , etc., using the Compare tool.
Observe which sectors are trending higher or lower relative to AMEX:SPY
Example
If AMEX:XLK and AMEX:XLY show upward trends while AMEX:XLU remains flat, this indicates cyclical sectors like Technology and Consumer Discretionary are outperforming during an expansion phase.
Step 5: Implement Sector Rotation in Your Portfolio
Once you’ve identified leading sectors:
Allocate more capital to sectors with strong RS and bullish technical indicators.
Reduce exposure to lagging sectors with weak RS or bearish momentum signals.
Example
During post-pandemic recovery in early 2021:
Leading Sectors: Technology AMEX:XLK and Industrials AMEX:XLI
Lagging Sectors: Utilities AMEX:XLU
Investors who rotated into AMEX:XLK and AMEX:XLI outperformed those who remained in defensive sectors like AMEX:XLU
Real-Life Case Studies of Sector Rotation
Case Study 1: Post-Pandemic Recovery
In early 2021, as economies reopened after COVID-19 lockdowns:
Cyclical sectors like Industrials AMEX:XLI and Financials AMEX:XLF outperformed due to increased economic activity.
Defensive sectors like Utilities AMEX:XLU lagged as investors shifted away from safe havens.
Using TradingView’s heatmap feature , investors could have identified strong gains in AMEX:XLI and AMEX:XLF relative to AMEX:SPY
Case Study 2: Inflation Surge in Late 2022
As inflation surged in late 2022:
Energy AMEX:XLE and Materials AMEX:XLB outperformed due to rising commodity prices.
Technology AMEX:XLK underperformed as higher interest rates hurt growth stocks.
By monitoring RS lines for AMEX:XLE and AMEX:XLB on TradingView charts, investors could have rotated into these sectors ahead of broader market gains.
Limitations of Sector Rotation Strategies
Transaction Costs : Frequent rebalancing can erode returns over time.
Market Timing Challenges : Predicting economic cycles accurately is difficult and prone to errors.
False Signal s: Technical indicators like MACD or RSI can produce false positives during volatile markets.
Historical Bias : Backtested strategies often fail when applied to future market conditions.
Conclusion
Sector rotation is a useful framework for aligning investments with macroeconomic trends but should be approached with caution due to its inherent limitations. By leveraging TradingView ’s tools, such as relative strength analysis, heatmaps, and technical indicators, investors can systematically analyze sector performance and make informed decisions about portfolio allocation.
While academic research shows that sector rotation strategies do not consistently outperform simpler approaches like market timing or buy-and-hold strategies, they remain valuable for diversification and risk management when used judiciously.
S&P500: Breaking out towards 6,210.S&P500 is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 54.592, MACD = 11.130, ADX = 24.014) as it is ranging between the 1H MA50 and 1H MA200. This consolidation is taking place near the top of the Channel Down, a pattern almost identical with January's. When that pattern broke to the upside, it almost hit the 1.5 Fibonacci extension. Our short term target is just under this level (TP = 6,210).
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SPX: cautious on hourly earningsThere has been sort of a mixed mood on financial markets during the previous week. The week started with a positive sentiment, although it was around the level of 5.931 at one short point. The S&P 500 was moving toward the higher grounds for the rest of the week, reaching the highest weekly level on Thursday, at 6.083. Still, after the NFP data were posted, the market turned to the negative sentiment, dropping strongly within the day, finishing the week at the level 6.025. What was the actual problem with the NFP data? The US economy added 143K new jobs, while the market was expecting to see the figure around 170K. This difference is not so huge, so there was no problem. However, the average hourly earnings were the one to spoil the game on the market, considering that they increased by 0,5% above the market estimate of 0,3%. This was the breaking point for investors, where they anticipate that increased earnings will support increased spending in the future period and consequently higher inflation. A higher inflation means that the Fed will hold interest rates at current levels for a longer period of time, which means that investors need to revalue their positions. And, another drop in the US equity markets just happened.
Despite job developments, which are temporary, the investors continue to be concerned about trade tariffs imposed, or planned to be imposed, by the new US Administration. This brings higher sensitivity to equity markets, which will react to any news to this topic in the future period. So, it might be expected that the volatility will continue.
As for quarterly results of the major companies, Amazon shares dropped around 4% after the results. The company had relatively solid quarterly earrings, however, the push in the price was provoked by providing a relatively low guidance to investors regarding companies expectation for Q1 earnings. They provided only an expectation of 5% to 9% growth in revenues in the first quarter, but analysts are noting that this would be the lowest quarterly growth of the company in its history.
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Monday sell Off? History May Repeat Itself...Monday Sell-Off? This Setup Says It’s Coming... | SPX Market Analysis 10 Feb 2025
Another week wraps up, and as I eye Monday’s open, I can’t shake a sense of déjà vu.
The last two weeks started with a gap down, followed by a bearish finish into the weekend.
Super Bowl Sunday is also here – Can the Kansas City Chiefs complete an unprecedented three-peat in Super Bowl 59 or will the Philadelphia Eagles gain revenge? Just like the markets, only time will tell and we will have to wait and see.
That said, Friday’s setup is setting the stage for another pop ‘n drop. The only question? What triggers the fall this time?
...
SPX Deeper Dive Analysis:
📉 Mondays Have Been Bearish – Will This One Be Too?
The last two Mondays started with a gap down, followed by a bearish move into the weekend. If the pattern holds, next week could open with a bang – but not necessarily to the upside.
🏈 Super Bowl & The Markets – A Perfect Parallel?
The markets are playing their own Super Bowl showdown. Will the bulls make a comeback, or will the bears crush their hopes yet again? Just like the Chiefs vs. Eagles, we can only wait and see.
🔻 Friday’s Bearish Setup – A Warning Sign?
- V-shaped reversal entry ✅
- Bearish pulse bar confirmation ✅
- Similar daily bar pattern to the last two Fridays ✅
📌 So What Happens Monday?
If history repeats itself, we could see:
- A pop higher at the open, luring in buyers 🏹
- A sharp drop shortly after, trapping the late bulls 🕳
- A repeat of the last two weeks' bearish close 📉
🔑 Key Takeaway: The setup is there. Now we wait for the trigger.
Fun Fact:
📢 Did you know? The Super Bowl Indicator suggests that if an AFC team wins, markets go bearish, but if an NFC team wins, markets go bullish.
💡 The Lesson? As ridiculous as it sounds, market psychology is a wild beast. While we don’t trade superstition, it’s always fun to see how random events get tied to stock performance.
NFP Incoming - Will SPX Smash 6100?NFP Incoming – Will SPX Smash 6100? | SPX Market Analysis 7 Feb 2025
The bulls keep charging as SPX edges closer to 6100. But with the NFP report dropping pre-market, things could get lively.
Will we blast through resistance or bounce back down? Expect some whipsaw chaos before the market settles – but with a bullish trend already in play, we should at least get one more push toward target exits before the dust settles.
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SPX Deeper Dive Analysis:
📈 Bullish Move On Track
SPX has ridden the momentum train all the way from the range lows to the range highs. Now, we’re staring at 6100, the key level where decisions will be made.
🚀 NFP Report – A Market Mover
Today’s Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data drops just before the opening bell. This is one of the bigger monthly catalysts, meaning we could see:
A breakout past 6100 if the market likes the numbers.
A sharp rejection back into the range if traders get spooked.
A whipsaw shakeout, with wild swings before settling.
🔄 Short-Term Expectation? A Push Higher
Even if volatility kicks in, the existing bullish momentum should at least give us a final nudge up toward target exits. Whether we smash through 6100 or stall out, we’re in prime position to lock in profits.
⏳ The Good Kind of Waiting
Once again, we’re in a holding pattern, waiting for the market to tip its hand. But this is strategic patience – the kind where we’ve done the hard work and now simply let the market do its thing. The setups are in place – now, we sit back and watch the magic unfold.
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Fun Fact:
📢 Did you know? In 2010, a trader accidentally caused a $1 trillion stock market crash in just 36 minutes – all because of a fat-finger trade.
💡 The Lesson? One typo, one misclick, or one overleveraged position can cause chaos. Always double-check your trades, because even the pros have hit the wrong button before.
Elliott Wave View: SPY Looking to Resume HigherShort Term Elliott Wave View in SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) suggests pullback to 575.04 ended wave ((4)). The ETF has resumed higher in wave ((5)) with internal subdivision as 5 waves impulse. Up from wave ((4)), wave ((i)) ended at 585.99 and dips in wave ((ii)) ended at 578.35. From there, wave (i) ended at 583.81 and wave (ii) ended at 578.90. Wave (iii) higher ended at 595.56 and pullback in wave (iv) ended at 590.35. Final wave (v) ended at 607.7 which completed wave ((iii)). Pullback in wave ((iv)) ended at 604.67 and wave ((v)) higher ended at 610.78. This completed wave 1 in higher degree.
The ETF then pullback in wave 2 with internal subdivision as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Down from wave 1, wave ((b)) ended at 609.96 as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Up from wave ((a)), wave (w) ended at 605.96 and wave (x) ended at 599.22. Wave (y) higher ended at 609.96 which completed wave ((b)) in higher degree. The ETF turned lower in wave ((c)) towards 589.5 which completed wave 2 in higher degree. It has turned higher in wave 3. Near term, as far as pivot at 575.04 low stays intact, expect pullback to find support in 3, 7, 11 swing for more upside.
Nightly $SPX / $SPY Scenarios for 2.7.2025 🔮 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News:
🇺🇸🤝🇨🇦🇲🇽 Tariff Developments: The U.S. has announced a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico, set to take effect on March 4, 2025, following a 30-day delay after negotiations.
🇺🇸📈🇨🇳 Tariffs on China: A 10% tariff on Chinese imports was implemented on February 4, 2025. In response, China has announced retaliatory tariffs ranging from 10% to 15% on select U.S. goods, effective February 10, 2025.
📊 Key Data Releases:
🏢 Nonfarm Payrolls (8:30 AM ET): Forecast: +165K | Previous: +150K
📉 Unemployment Rate (8:30 AM ET): Forecast: 4.1% | Previous: 4.1%
💵 Average Hourly Earnings (8:30 AM ET): Forecast: +0.3% | Previous: +0.2%
💡 Market Scenarios:
📈 GAP ABOVE HPZ: A further gap up may lead to a rejection back down into the 6041 area.
📊 OPEN WITHIN EEZ: Expect slight morning choppiness, followed by a significant sell-off either in the early morning or afternoon, dropping into 6025 before bouncing to close above 6041.
📉 GAP BELOW HCZ: Consolidate lower and then pump back higher than 6025; that's the flip level.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPX #SPY #daytrading #charting #trendtao
SPX Nears All-Time Highs – Is a Breakout Imminent?The S&P 500 Index (SPX) has been following a strong upward trajectory, consistently forming higher highs (HH) and higher lows (HL), indicating a bullish trend.
However, the price is now approaching a rising trendline that has acted as a key resistance multiple times in the past.
750 dolla spy.gm,
wanted to share my outlook on the stock market today.
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fear is accelerating. uncertainty is going parabolic in a way we haven’t seen since the covid crash. people are running. insiders are exiting. the herd is collectively turning bearish.
but i’m bullish.
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here’s exactly why:
-quantitative easing is coming back.
-rate cuts are on the horizon.
-the us dollar is depreciating.
-economic expansion is inevitable.
-the artificial intelligence boom is just getting started.
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while most people fumble their bag up here, drowning in fear, we look for significantly higher prices into 2026.
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ps. i left out upside targets and timeframes because none of that matters at the moment. only the structure does. if you like the structure, use it. don't give me any credit. i don’t need it.
if you make a dolla this next year, donate a tenth of it to someone who needs it more than you. the universe will handle the rest.
🌙
S&P500: Neutral on 1D shows enormous upside potential.S&P500 is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 53.735, MACD = 16.510, ADX = 17.690) as it just crossed over the 1D MA50 again and after a 1D MA100 rebound remains relatively low inside the Channel Up pattern. The 1D RSI is also bouncing on the S1 level, where the September 6th 2024 bullish wave originated and reached the 1.786 Fibonacci extension. That is an excellent technical level for the next HH (TP = 6,300).
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ES Morning Update Feb 5thAfter a noisy start earlier in the week, ES has settled into a consolidation phase. Yesterday’s strategy was simple: as long as 6020 remained intact, 6066 was the target. The market surged to 6066, held throughout the session, and then retraced back to 6020 overnight.
As of now:
• A reclaim of 6037 should push the market toward 6056, with a brief dip along the way
• If this rebound holds, targets are set at 6076 and 6087+
• A leg down is expected only if the price falls below 6004