A potential minor or major pullback for SPX?🔉Sound on!🔉
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SPX (S&P 500 Index)
$spx going to 11k over the next 3 to 4 yearsIm expecting the current bull to continue for another few years, with a deep correction in between now and the expected target of 11 k, by 2028/29...
From there I expect SP:SPX to enter a sideways bear market such as the ones of 68/75 and 2000/2009 in order to form the 4th base of the secular run since 1929 (shown the comments).
Bears always get it wrong, because of their self-delusions about the world and often also themselves!
It's bulls who - due to their prescience and foresight - actually get to foresee tops in the market.
Bears never catch a top, if they do it's either by coincidence, luck or something a four year old could have seen, like the covid top... anyway... we see so much madness in the ideas section, it's even fun!
Russel 2000. Rejection at the top, correction on the way?Probable correction on the RTY Russel 2000 index. Rising wedge and failing to break the prior top.
Support on every fibo level to the downside, with an ultimate floor on the monthly lower Mogalef bands the long term sideways channel, and the very long term trend line, all around the 1,600 area
SPX 500 I Two areas of potential long opportunity Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
** SPX500 Analysis - Listen to video!
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Thanks for your continued support!Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
SPX Week in Review (log)Hello community,
A quick look at the SPX trend weekly.
We are still in an uptrend, as shown by the indicator.
It remains to be seen whether the US elections will shake up the market.
The chart shows the volume accumulation zones.
The orange line represents the 200-period simple moving average.
For my part, I am not worried.
Make your own opinion before placing an order.
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S&P500 Buy this pull back.S&P500 / US500 got rejected today on the Falling Resistance of the previous High.
This is the very same pattern we had between Sep 26th - Oct 6th.
After the pull back was completed near the previous Low, the price rebounded above the Falling Resistance to a +2.17% rise.
Even the first rebound on the Rising Support, rose by +2.19%.
Buy the current pull back and target 5900 (+2.17%).
Previous chart:
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Full Trading Plan For ES/SPX Oct 25thPlan for Friday:
Supports:
• Major: 5842, 5825, 5805-07, 5787, 5763, 5756, 5746, 5725-29, 5711, 5690
• Minor: 5853, 5848, 5838, 5818, 5814, 5798, 5783, 5774, 5768, 5751, 5740, 5733, 5715, 5702, 5695
Overview:
Today was a straightforward backtest of 5864 followed by a dip, then a return to that level, marking a typical rangebound day. We are now in a new consolidation range between 5865-68 and 5825. Trading within this range could be tricky and highly technical, so predicting is a losing strategy. For tomorrow, I’ll trade light, expecting continued chop unless the 5865-68 resistance clears.
Key Zones for Tomorrow:
• 5842 is the first support down but is now less reliable due to today’s battleground. If ES dips to 5838 and reclaims it, I may consider going long, but only if no new highs above today’s peak are made first.
• Below 5838, expect a fast flush to 5825 (major support). I’d consider a long here if there’s a failed breakdown of today’s low (~5822), meaning a recovery above 5825 after a brief flush. If 5825 fails, it could indicate that bears still have control, and longs become riskier. The next key long interest is 5805-07 or failed breakdowns of yesterday’s low.
• Deeper support for long interest would be 5756 if we see a larger flush.
Resistances:
• Major: 5865-68, 5882, 5890-92, 5910, 5919, 5945-47, 5971
• Minor: 5861, 5878, 5886, 5899, 5902, 5907, 5914, 5927, 5933, 5940, 5958, 5966
We haven’t cleared the significant 5865-68 resistance yet. Even if we pop up there tomorrow, another dip is likely before any breakout. If we do break through, we could see a squeeze up to 5882, potentially followed by a dip before pushing higher to 5892. If the breakout continues, we may see a push toward new ATHs in the next leg up.
For those interested in shorting, 5882 is a potential level. However, I won’t be shorting above 5865-68.
Buyers Case Tomorrow:
Buyers case would see ES continue to consolidate between 5825 and 5865 before breaking to the upside. The scenario would likely involve a pop to 5865-68, followed by one more dip (could be significant or small), and then a breakout targeting 5882 and 5892. Afterward, a dip may happen before pushing higher toward ATHs.
• I’ll keep an eye on 5842 for long opportunities on dips and potential recoveries at 5848.
Sellers Case Tomorrow:
Sellers need to break 5825 to regain control. If 5825 fails, it could indicate that the recent dip was not a one-off. However, breakdown trades are risky as 80% of breakdowns typically trap traders. These setups require a high skill level and may fail multiple times before paying off significantly.
• I won’t chase shorts after a 30-point sell-off. I’d prefer to see 5825 tested, or a failed breakdown of today’s low before shorting under the bounce structure (possibly around 5818 or higher).
Summary for Tomorrow:
• Expect consolidation between 5825 and 5865-68 with potential ping pong price action.
• Leaning toward a pop to 5865-68, then possibly a dip before breaking out higher to 5882+.
• If 5825 fails, we could see further selling.
Trade cautiously in this consolidation range, as the price can take complex, unpredictable paths.
SPX to turnaround?US500 - 24h expiry
Broken out of the wedge to the downside.
The formation has a measured move target of 5773.
An overnight positive theme in Equities has led to a higher open this morning.
Expect trading to remain mixed and volatile.
The sequence for trading is lower lows and highs.
We look to Sell at 5847 (stop at 5865)
Our profit targets will be 5802 and 5792
Resistance: 5845 / 5847 / 5857
Support: 5815 / 5800 / 5785
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US500 S&P Technical Analysis & Trade Idea 👀👉 US500: I am carefully watching for a potential buying opportunity based on the key criteria discussed in the video regarding the SPX. In this analysis, we will examine the crucial price action signals to track and how to position yourself strategically to capitalise on the next market move. Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not intended as financial advice.📊✅
S&P500 This pull back is an excellent buy opportunity.S&P500 is pulling back intraday but remains over the MA50 (1d).
The bullish trend is intact and is being guided by this long term Channel Up since the 2022 bottom.
The price is right nowjust over the 0.382 Fib Channel level, which isn't overbought by any means.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 6000 (the 0.618 Fib level).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1d) is about to touch its Rising Support, a pattern very similar to the March - June 2023 Rising Support. The two fractals look identical even on price terms. This also indicates a continuation of the bullish trend.
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SPX at Great Depression and Dot-Com Crash LevelsCurrent deviation from long term mathematical model at the top of trend only reached twice in the last 100 years; once during the Great Depression and once during the top of the Dot-Com bubble.
Mathematical model = Ratio of Close to smoothed 300 Week SMA (SMA 10 of SMA 10 of SMA 70 Week Close)
DreamAnalysis | SPX500 at a Crossroads Key Trading Strategies✨ Today’s Focus: SPX500 (US500) – A Key Market Driver
We dive into recent price movements and analyze critical market levels to identify potential trends.
📊 Current Market Overview:
The price is currently consolidating within the Previous Weekly Range, showing little movement for now. However, it's important to note that the Previous Month's High (PMH) has already been taken, and the market needs to accumulate more liquidity before making a decisive move—hence the consolidation.
🔴 What to Expect: Short-Term vs. Long-Term Scenarios
We'll explore both short-term and long-term outlooks, offering insights into bullish and bearish possibilities for day traders.
🗣 Short-Term Outlook:
In the short term, we may see a retracement into the Fair Value Zone or the Equilibrium (50% of the range). However, without significant information from higher timeframes, it's best to wait for lower timeframe confirmations before entering a trade.
🗣 Long-Term Outlook:
From a long-term perspective, the price may dip lower to absorb sell-side liquidity before continuing its upward trend.
🕓 Key Levels to Watch:
Keep an eye on these levels, which could impact price action:
- PMH: Previous Month High
- PML: Previous Month Low
- PWH: Previous Week High
- PWL: Previous Week Low
- BSL: Buy-Side Liquidity
- SSL: Sell-Side Liquidity
- Daily FVG: Fair Value Gap (Imbalance Zone)
These levels highlight potential liquidity absorption points and areas where price might rebalance. Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) are key zones for potential retracement before the market resumes its trend.
🔔 1Hour Outlook:
📈 Bullish Scenario:
For a bullish setup, we need the Previous Week Low (PWL) to be taken out, or we can use the lower timeframes to identify Sell-Side Liquidity (SSL) levels. Once price sweeps these liquidity levels, we can look for an entry model to target the Buy-Side Liquidity, such as the Previous Week High (PWH).
📉 Bearish Scenario:
On the bearish side, lower timeframes are already offering potential entry models. With the monthly high (PMH) taken and a Smart Money Technique (SMT) divergence with the NASDAQ (US100), there’s a strong confluence for bearish continuation.
📝 Conclusion:
Stay flexible as market conditions shift. Monitor these key levels and setups closely to fine-tune your strategy and seize high-probability trading opportunities.
🔮 Looking Ahead:
Keep following as we track developments in NASDAQ, DXY, EUR/USD, and other major markets. Timely insights will be provided as trends unfold.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always perform your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
S&P500 Has it topped?The S&P500 index (SPX) is ahead of critical crossroads for the short-term as the Bullish Megaphone pattern that is in effect since April 01, is showing strong signs of topping.
Even though the price isn't on the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the Megaphone, the 1D MACD formed a Bearish Cross today and practically is repeating the sequence of the index' previous Leg from April 19 to July 17, which ended also on a MACD Bearish Cross.
As you can see besides the Bearish Cross, even the price action between the two fractals has gone through very similar phases. The current Bullish Leg is in the form of a Rising Wedge.
Despite the Bearish Cross, the trend remains bullish within this pattern until the Wedge's bottom breaks. As a result, it is more likely to see at least 6000 next. If however the price breaks below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), we will have a confirmed sell signal at hand, based on which we will short and target 5600.
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S&P 500 Is Higher Than Ever. Can Earnings Support the Growth?Tech giants are in the waiting room, prepping their financial updates while investors drool over prospects of AI-fueled revenues. The season kicked off with Wall Street banks posting some convincing numbers for the September quarter, painting an optimistic outlook for Corporate America’s biggest and brightest players.
The S&P 500 is hot, hot, hot. Investors just can’t get enough of the 500-strong index and last Friday they pushed it to its 47th record closing high of the year. And they did it with finesse — on the eve of the 37th anniversary of the “Black Monday” market crash. (On Oct. 19, 1987, the S&P 500 wiped out a record 20% and the Nasdaq shed 12%.) Broadly, US indexes are having a bumper year, with most of them up double digits or more.
With no time to waste, markets are shifting their attention to the looming slate of big tech earnings reports . Here’s what’s going to be turning heads this week:
📌 On Wednesday , EV maker Tesla TSLA will be the main character in the world of corporate updates. Wall Street is eyeballing earnings north of $25.4 billion, up from $23.4 billion in the year-ago quarter. Besides Elon Musk’s EV giant, Wednesday will bring earnings from Coca Cola KO , Boeing BA , IBM IBM and telecoms mainstays T-Mobile TMUS and AT&T T .
📌 On Thursday , the earnings roll keeps rolling in with e-commerce and cloud computing juggernaut Amazon AMZN reporting after the closing bell.
But all that earnings action looks fairly light — wait till you see what’s cooking for next week. *drumroll please* … 🥁
The Magnificent Seven club of tech highflyers will be represented by four of its members. (Tesla and Amazon report the prior week and Nvidia NVDA reports in about a month from now.)
📌 On October 29 , Google parent Alphabet GOOGL is scheduled to report earnings figures. Shares of the tech heavyweight are up about 18% on the year but got stuck recently after the Department of Justice filed a range of possible changes aimed at reducing Google’s search dominance.
📌 On October 30 , Facebook parent Meta META and Microsoft MSFT will reveal how they fared in the three months through September. Mark Zuckerberg’s Meta flaunts a massive 65% year-to-date increase (and some new glow-up for its loose-shirt-wearing tech bro founder.) Microsoft, on the other hand, is up by a more modest clip of 12%.
📌 On October 31 , Apple AAPL will release its highly-anticipated earnings data that will include a glimpse into how well the new iPhone 16 is selling . Shares of Apple are up roughly 27% for the year.
These seven mega-cap corporate giants are expected to show an 18% rise in third-quarter profits, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. If materialized, that would be substantially slower than the 36% seen in the second quarter. The sheer size of the pack accounts for about 30% of the total market cap of the S&P 500 (which not long ago celebrated its $50 trillion milestone .) Nvidia and Apple alone are worth more than $7 trillion combined.
What’s on your radar for this earnings season? Are you waiting for a tech giant to dip or maybe you're after a bank stock or a car conglomerate? Share your comments below!
S&P 500 Index - Already dropped and still...Technical Analysis:
The price dropped after stabilizing below 5863 and is still running to get 5825 and 5781
If the price breaks and holds above the 5878 level, the next target would be the resistance line at around 5,939.
On the downside, a rejection from the liquidity zone could send the price back down towards the support line near 5,825 or even further towards 5,781.
Direction:
Bearish: If the price fails to break above 5878 and 5,891 and the liquidity zone holds as resistance, the price will likely move towards 5,825 or lower.
Bullish: If the price breaks and closes above 5,891, a bullish continuation towards 5,939 is expected.
The overall bias is bearish unless there is a confirmed breakout above the liquidity zone.
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 5837
Resistance Levels: 5865, 5891, 5915
Support Levels: 5812, 5781, 5761
Trend Outlook:
Bearish below 5848
Bullish above 5878
There's a storm on my chartHi everyone,
I see two possibilities.
Blue or Brown ? (we have to see!)
Technical Section:
The Blue Path: S&P500 is completing the fifth wave of the 5th wave of a five-wave rally.
Wave 5 = 2.618 x length of Wave 1
Wave 3 = 2 x length of Wave 1
Target = 5790
The Brown Path: S&P500 is completing the fifth wave of the 3rd wave of a five-wave rally.
Wave 3 = 4.236 x length of Wave 1
Target = 6440
SPX Grand Super Cycle- Possible Target $ 6000 to 7000There is no denial for a short-term pullback in the market, which will be healthy for the market.
Also lots of speculation/leverage in the current market
So the market maker may shake out the weak hands soon.
If we see SPX in the quarterly chart Wave 1 started in 1976 and ended in 2000 which was around 26 years.
Wave 2 was from 2001 to 2009. Total nine years for wave two corrections.
Wave 3 started in 2009 and correction in 2020 March was quick just two months correction (Most probable it should not be wave 4 correction). This can be a nest (each wave is built of smaller waves and, at the same time, each wave is a part of a bigger wave) and wave II of a second nest.
In my opinion, there would be two probable scenarios, the first one is SPX is still in wave three and it will go to 6000/7000 in this decades.
As if we go with SPX Grand Super Cycle then- possible targets can be 4700 to 5000 or more before a major crash (Wave 4 correction multi-years) happen and after the wave 4 correction wave 5 targets can be 6000 to 7000 or more
The second one is to complete wave 5 around 4600 to 5300 and 60-80 % crash to 1500 - 2000
So just remember a sharp correction/crash wouldn’t be the end of the world, it will be an opportunity to invest for the long term
Trend-based fib extension support the first scenario.
This is just my view please share your views in the comment section.
Thank you
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute financial advice. It is for educational purposes only,
S&P500: Best buy entry the 4H MA100.S&P500 is bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 62.185, MACD = 62.800, ADX = 52.249) but neutral on 4H, which given the long-term bullish trend, has started to ring the first buy signals. Technically though, a better opportunity would exist on the 4H MA100 and not the 4H MA50 which was just tested. In fact, the last HL of the 5 week Channel Up was priced on the 4H MA100 when the 4H RSI broke under 40.00 (bearish). We will buy when those conditions are fulfilled and aim for another +3.50% rise (TP = 6,000).
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