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SPX (S&P 500 Index)

SPX 500 Breaks Record High, Targets 5650US SPX 500 – technical overview Longer-term technical studies continue to look quite extended, begging for a deeper correction ahead. At the same time, the latest bullish breakout to a fresh record high beyond the 2024 high opens the door for the next measured move upside extension targeting the 5650 area. Key support comes in at 5194. R2 5500 – Round Number – Strong R1 5450 – 7 June/Record high – Medium S1 5321 – 7 June low – Medium S2 5194 – 31 May low – Strong US SPX 500 – fundamental overview Though we have seen a healthy adjustment of investor expectations towards the amount of rate cuts in 2024, the market still hopes policy will end up erring more towards the investor friendly, accommodative side of things. This bet has kept stocks well bid into dips and consistently pushing record highs. Still, if there is a sense the Fed will need to be more sensitive towards erring on the side of higher rates, it could invite major disruption to the stock market. Exclusive FX research from LMAX Group Market Strategist, Joel Kruger
BLACKBULL:SPX500
by BlackBull_Markets
S&P500 targeting 5800 if this level breaks.The S&P500 index (SPX) recovered from April's correction and rebounded on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) during late May's consolidation, much faster than all previous corrective phases within the 1.5 year Channel Up pattern. This has resulted in the price testing again the top of that pattern, first time since April 01. So far it has been there but failed to break it 3 days in a row, which is an accelerating bearish signal and as long as it fails to break upwards, we expect another test (at least) of the 1D MA50. If it does break though, and since as mentioned this corrective phase has been faster and weaker than the previous, there are higher probabilities to do so, we expect a new (blue) short-term Channel Up to emerge. That would be similar to the previous 2 Bullish Legs of the long-term Channel Up, only this time it will break above it and take the index to a new dominant pattern. In any case, our medium-term Target on that occasion wil be 5800, even though on the long-term, we can see at least a +25% rise from the April 19 bottom. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by TradingShot
2
S&P 500: All-Time Highs and Potential DeclineS&P 500 (SPX) Technical Analysis The S&P 500 (SPX) has continued its bullish trend as anticipated the previous week, successfully reaching the projected target of 5450. However, it now appears poised for a potential decline. This Week's Outlook: The price is likely to experience a strong bearish correction as long as it trades below 5450, potentially reaching 5310 and 5260. However, the SPX is expected to consolidate between 5450 and 5260. Bullish Scenario: To initiate a new bullish trend, the price must close at least a 4-hour candle above 5450, targeting 5485. Sustained stability above 5450 would be required to confirm a bullish move towards 5550. Bearish Scenario: As long as the price remains below 5450, it is expected to drop towards 5345 and 5310. A further decline could see the price reaching 5260. Key Levels: - Pivot Line: 5450 - Resistance Levels: 5484, 5525, 5550 - Support Levels: 5372, 5320, 5261 Weekly Expected Trading Range: The anticipated movement range for this week is between the resistance at 5460 and the support at 5260. In summary, maintaining a position below 5450 suggests a bearish outlook with lower support targets in focus. Conversely, closing above 5450 could indicate a bullish reversal, aiming for higher resistance levels. Our Previous Weekly Idea: Fundamental Analysis:: Market Analysis: S&P 500 at All-Time Highs Amid Overbought Conditions Overbought Conditions Aren't a Sell Signal: A low VIX indicates an overbought condition, but it does not serve as a sell signal. Bullish Momentum in the S&P 500: The S&P 500 (SPX) is once again at all-time highs, with bullish momentum accelerating. Following a favorable interpretation of the consumer price index figures on Wednesday, the S&P 500 surged to new intraday and closing all-time highs. Fed's Impact and Market Reaction: Despite a somewhat lukewarm outcome from the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting later that day, which triggered some sell programs, the overall buying momentum remained strong. Positive Indicators Amid Overbought Conditions: Our indicators have largely remained positive throughout this phase and continue to signal bullishness. However, overbought conditions are starting to appear, which is expected given the strength of the rally.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by SroshMayi
#202425 - a weekly price action market recap and outlook - sp500Good Day and I hope you are well. sp500 e-mini futures Quote from last week: bear case: Bears are still inside the bull flag and making lower lows. As long as they are staying below 5310-5320, their bear case lives on but is weak at best. They could not get consecutive daily closes below the daily ema and the reversal on Friday made the daily, weekly and monthly bar more buying than selling signals. You could argue that we are building a similar structure to April, where we had the double top and then only lower highs until bears finally accelerated it down big time and we got below 5000. Could this happen here too? Of course. We will find out on Monday or Tuesday. comment: My take last week was, that as long as bears keep it below 5400, we could be in a trading range. Bulls used the pullback on Tuesday for a new ath and got a strong follow through on Wednesday to pulverize that previous ath and trade above 5500. That target price was my first measured move target from early 2024 and it could continue up to 5600. Market refused to print a bear bar on Thursday and Friday which leaves the market maximum bullish going into next week. The big issue with that long trade is, you are buying right under the ath in a buy climax, in multiple wedges, far far above any ema. This trade risk:reward equation is as bad as it gets but the probability is high. But what is your target? You can join momentum but all of my calculated targets end at around 5600. Buying pullbacks is the reasonable thing to do until it stops working. My final thoughts on the market this week is the following chart, which speaks for itself. This is peak bubble behavior and the next 1000-2000 Points will be made on the downside. So given the current pattern of the s&p500 I do think we are in the last blow-off top of this bull cycle and will enter a trading range which will evolve into the new bear trend once we break below 5000. This market is made up of 7 stocks which get all the liquidity. My best guess on the path forward over the next months is in the weekly chart below. We will probably spend more time between 5000 - 5600 to form a credible top. A head & shoulders top would be the most probable outcome. current market cycle: Max bullishness & peak bubble territory again. Will end over the next weeks. key levels: 5400 - 5600 bull case: Bulls buying it all on the 7 stocks. Volume on this up move since May is absolute atrocious but that does not help anyone so far. It’s only going up and as long as bulls keep making money literally buying every dip, we continue up. I have 3 wave series leading up to 5500-5600 and all end there. Invalidation is below 5300. bear case: What do the bears have going for them? Nothing and if anything, pure speculation and low probability stuff. The chart is showing multiple wedges, we are clearly in multiple third pushes up (W5) and volume is drying up. Once the institutions begin taking profits on the magnificent 7, we will see big moves down to end the trend and enter a trading range. The bull trend line around 5300 will be hit in the next 2-4 weeks and afterwards I think we will form a lower high before we will be on our way to 5000 again. As of now I think bears want to see a big climactic bull bar to 5600 before they begin shorting again. Invalidation is above 5620. outlook last week: “Bullish above 5320 for another leg up to 5500 or higher but only if it happens until end of Tuesday.” → Last Sunday we traded 5355 and now we are at 5502. 5500 was my target if bulls trade above 5400 and I hope you made some of those 100 points. Good outlook it was. short term: No interest in buying here unless it’s a momentum scalp. I will look for weakness and a trade back to a test of the daily 20ema which is around 5400. Bulls are still heavily favored in terms of probability. medium-long term: Bull trend is in the last legs and this will soon pull back much further and form a big trading range. 5600 could be hit but the next bigger points are made trading back down to 5300 and 5000 over the next weeks/months. current swing trade: None Chart update: This is my best guess on how the next 3-9 months will play out. Two-legged correction down to 5000 over the next 4-8 weeks, followed by a last lower high before the next big bear trend will begin. That’s only price-wise but not time wise. Could get there much faster or much slower.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
S&P Tug of War Continues as Market Seeks ClarityLast week marked some of the most unclear price action we've seen. Starting on Tuesday, sellers gradually took control from buyers, but most of the action occurred during extended hours (meaning on VERY low volume). On Friday, sellers finally acted during regular trading hours and attacked the market right from the open. However, it seems buyers were only waiting for this, as the price suddenly pivoted, and the day ended with a spectacular bull run. At this moment, the market is sending very confusing signals, and the best strategy for a swing trader is to simply stay away for some time. Here's a formal summary of the current situation: 1. Long-term Bullish . The price is in an uptrend on both weekly and monthly timeframes. May closed above April’s high 2. Short-term Bearish . Weekly consolidation is in progress, and despite the bull show-off on Friday, the market is still consolidating on the weekly timeframe. Moreover, the week closed with a bearish "hanging man" candle. 3. Respect Friday’s Bull Run . It was unusually strong for bearish context and could easily develop into something significant. To develop a convincing thesis, we need to see some clarity on the daily chart. Either bears will confirm a daily lower high, signaling the continuation of the weekly consolidation, or bulls will set a daily higher low, signaling the continuation of the uptrend. Until this happens, we can expect more unexpected moves in both directions without much follow-through. Disclaimer I don't give trading or investing advice, just sharing my thoughts.
AMEX:SPY
by hermes_trisme
S&P 500 Index: Bullish Trend Faces Potential ReversalS&P 500 Index Technical Analysis The S&P 500 (SPX) has continued its bullish trend as anticipated, successfully reaching the projected targets. However, it now appears poised for a potential decline. Intraday Analysis: Today, the price may stabilize within the bearish zone, remaining below 5423 and potentially moving towards 5372. Bullish Scenario: For a new bullish trend to be initiated, the price must close a 4-hour candle above 5423, targeting 5440. Stability above 5450 would then be required to confirm the bullish trend. Bearish Scenario: As long as the price trades below 5423, it is likely to drop towards 5372 and 5346, particularly if a 1-hour candle closes below 5414. Key Levels: - Pivot Line: 5423 - Resistance Levels: 5450, 5484, 5520 - Support Levels: 5372, 5347, 5320 Today's Expected Trading Range: The anticipated movement range for today is between the resistance at 5450 and the support at 5346. In summary, maintaining a position above 5450 supports a bullish outlook, aiming for higher resistance levels. Conversely, trading below 5423 indicates a bearish trend, with potential support targets at 5372 and below.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by SroshMayi
12,000 SPY Prediction by 2028 "Roaring 20s Hello Again" Start of 1995 the NASDAQ was at 1,578, Start of 2,000 it stood at 8,688 x of 5.505 If we take the bottom of composite 11,073 that takes us to 60,956 and this only the Nasdaq composite This would put the US stock markets combined over 300-400 Trillion dollars. The Federal Reserve will be forced to repeat the same policies lowering or holding rates steady to beat both inflation and unemployment, the last thing people are expecting is a parabolic melt up of all major markets. This is why I'm posting proof We're moving into the age of Bitcoin as a global reserve currency, robotics and Ai. The USA has started to accept miners logic and Bitcoin economics. While people waited for the recession, while people waited for the bubble to pop, the reality is it has just started. I'm surprised majority are still watching this unfold on the side-lines waiting for the "bubble to pop" but then again when they come back in saying its "not a bubble" I will be defensive.
SP:SPXLong
by UnknownUnicorn4782510
US500SP:SPX TVC:SPX CBOE:SPX SPREADEX:SPX This analysis was performed by a neural network based on all signals from the indicator CCPR #US500 #1d #BrownDot 06/13/2024 | 5432.81 #google/gemini-flash-1.5 ### Analysis of the current situation: (funding and volume) *Funding: Funding on the US500 is in negative territory, indicating that sellers are more active than buyers. *Volume: Trading volume on the US500 has been above average in recent days, indicating increased interest in the market. ### Support and resistance level: * Resistance level: 5440, 5480 * Support level: 5380, 5340. ### Forecast for US500 price movement relative to the dollar: #### Brief immediate forecast: *Probability: 60% * Movement: The price is expected to drop by $500 in the coming days. * Signals: There is a strong signal for a downward reversal (BrownDot), which is confirmed by a weak buyer (BIGREDDOT) and negative funding. #### Medium-term forecast: *Probability: 40% * Movement: The price is expected to increase by US$500 in the medium term. * Signals: There is a downward divergence (DivergenceDOWN), which can be a trend reversal signal and preserves all previous downward signals. #### Motion reliability: * Up: 40% *Down: 60% ### Conclusions: * The current situation in the US500 market indicates a trend toward gradual price declines. * However, a downward divergence signal (DivergenceDOWN) can be a trend reversal signal and leaves all previous signals to fall. ### Recommendations for entering the position: * Short: Apply an open short position on US500 with a target of 5340, stop loss of 5400. * Long: thus delay opening long positions until the trend reverses. Additional factors to monitor: * News: Stay tuned for news that may appear in the $500 market, for example, for the publication of data on dynamics, interest rates, etc. *Volume: Follow trade analysis to ensure signal strength. Data for analysis: *Price: Keep an eye on the $500 price to determine its movement. * Indicators: Use indicators to give signals. *Volume: Follow trade research to identify strength signals.
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by Ivan_Olyanskiy
2024-06-13 - a daily price action after hour update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. sp500 e-mini futures comment: Two legs down from the open to then 3ish legs up to close right under the open price. Market is staying up here which is maximum bullish going into Friday. My target remains 5600 and there is absolutely no reason what so ever, that we can’t print another 100 points up tomorrow. Anything below 5470 would surprise me big time. Bears have no reason to sell this and bulls are making money buying every tick of a dip. current market cycle: bull trend key levels: 5470 - 5600 bull case: 5472 was a bit lower than expected but who cares, bulls buy it all. Just do the same. For tomorrow I will only look which ema is respected the most to go max long over the day. Invalidation is below 5470. bear case: If bears actually somehow manage to print a lower low below 5470, consider me surprised and I will rethink my plan but for now, bears are scalping as long as they have momentum, when it’s gone, they are out and bulls just print green bars. Invalidation is above 5520. short term: As bullish as one can be. Ride it up. medium-long term: Bearish. We will see 5000 over the next weeks again and 4600 over the next 12 months. Will update this time and price wise over the weekend but I expect to at least see 5000 over the next weeks. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Market just oscillated around 5500 the whole day. 5486 is big support and was a good buy yesterday and naturally so today if you chose a wider stop or waited for consecutive bull bars.
CME_MINI:MES1!Long
by priceactiontds
2
S&P bulls confirm their control; market reaches new highLast week, the Bulls' performance surprised many and some were badly hurt by Wednesday's rally. Followers of this channel, however, hopefully avoided this trap by staying aware that a bullish run was possible given the market's mixed signals. Now, the Bulls have confirmed their control by establishing both a higher low and a new high on the weekly chart. Notably, they managed to maintain this new high into the week’s close. At this point, my bias is 90% bullish. The only concern is the divergence between price action and market internals. While SPX set a new high, there were less stocks reaching new monthly high than lows. Although this isn’t a strong indicator, it’s something to keep in mind if suddenly things start to shift. But until we see clear signs of seller strength, we should remain aligned with the buyers. Disclaimer I don't give trading or investing advice, just sharing my thoughts.
AMEX:SPYLong
by hermes_trisme
Dow 'Big Yikes' moment as it gravely lags behind BigTech rallyA stock-market rally concentrated on an ever-narrowing cohort of tech stocks is leaving the Dow Jones Industrial Average behind as the Nasdaq Composite (IXIC), Nasdaq-100 hit records, making investors nervous. The scope of the divergence on Wednesday, with the Nasdaq-100 finishing posting a 1.33% gain versus a 0.09% fall for the Dow DJIA was particularly troubling. This is quite rare moment as the Dow posted a daily close more than 1.0 percentage points below Nasdaq-100 Index and more than 0.9% below S&P500 Index. That is a 'Big Yikes' moment. It's largely a statement on very bad breadth of the market, as we're incredibly reliant on just a very small number of names. The rally more recently, he noted, has been driven largely by longtime AI favorite Nvidia Corp. (NVDA), and Apple Inc. (AAPL), which has surged nearly 9% this week as it outlined its own plans to add AI to its products. The Super concentration is manifested in any number of breadth statistics, which track how many stocks in an index are participating in a move, including the percentage of stocks at 52-week highs versus 52-week lows and the percentage above their 200-day moving average. For example, just one component of SP500 Index - that is Nvidia.. had accounted for 35% of the increase in the S&P 500's market cap in 2024. Such a high concentration implies that if NVIDIA continues to rise, then things are fine and dandy. But if it starts to decline, then the market will be hit hard. Overall, presidential-election years tend to be strong ones for the market, particularly in the fourth quarter. And years that begin strong also tend to hold up. But everything could end, earlier or later. The main chart is the ratio between Nasdaq-100 (NDX) and Dow Jones (DJI) Indices. That indicates that June quarter posting an extremely new historical high between these two Major indices, first time over the past 25 years. A very historical times we live.
NASDAQ:NDX
by Pandorra
$SPY range $479-$529, the path to the top (and bear market)AMEX:SPY looks to be showing signs of weakness here. Thinking that we could see the first large decline of the year into one of the support levels below $479-$495. Breaking the trend line would be the trigger. If that happens and we do get a low, then I think we'll have one final rally to the upper resistance levels between $525-$530. Another possibility, is we just continue upwards to the top resistance levels and then decline after. Idea of a range is you want to buy the lows (supports on chart) and sell the highs (resistances chart). Regardless of the path we take, we're nearing a top in the market and after we hit those top levels, I expect a large decline lower (one that takes us past the prior 2022 lows). Ultimately looking for SPY to reach the $280-300 level by the end of 2024. But let's save that analysis after we see what happens in this range.
AMEX:SPY
by benjihyam
62
$TSLA Range Bound Trade?NASDAQ:TSLA I took a trading position in this yesterday at $169.55. The idea was that once I saw price rejection after the low of 167.41, it is a reversal play. There is still a good deal of resistance around that blue horizontal line. My idea or thought is that this has been range bound for some time as such it very well could go to that resistance area around $179 which is about a 5% move from my entry. I plan on selling some into that area and then decide to hold or sale if does or does not climb over that area. The chart I am using is the All-In-One LevelUp tool available here on TV. Check it out. Ideas, not investing / trading advice. Comments always welcome. Thanks for looking.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by jaxdog
S&P 500 Hit Record Highs for Third Consecutive Day!!!S&P 500 Index Technical Analysis The S&P 500 ( OANDA:SPX500USD ) has continued its bullish trend as anticipated, successfully reaching the projected targets. With the Consumer Price Index (CPI) result being released at 3.3% as we expected, the index tested its final resistance level of 5450. Intraday Analysis: Today, the price may stabilize within the bearish zone, attempting to break through the pivot line at 5423. Bullish Scenario: The price is likely to consolidate between 5423 and 5450. A breakout above 5450 would activate the next bullish trend, targeting 5484. Bearish Scenario: Should the price close a 4-hour or 1-hour candle below 5423, it is expected to decline towards 5384 and potentially 5372, thereby reaching the demand zone. Key Levels: - Pivot Line: 5423 - Resistance Levels: 5450, 5484, 5520 - Support Levels: 5383, 5347, 5320 Today's Expected Trading Range: The anticipated movement range for today is between the resistance at 5450 and the support at 5372. In summary, maintaining a position above 5450 supports a bullish outlook, aiming for higher resistance levels. Conversely, trading below 5423 indicates a bearish trend, with potential support targets at 5372. Previous idea: S&P 500 and Nasdaq Hit Record Highs for Third Consecutive Day Amid Fed's Interest Rate Forecast The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at record highs for the third consecutive day on Wednesday, driven by unexpectedly mild inflation data. However, these indexes retreated from their intraday peaks following the Federal Reserve's announcement that it projects only one interest rate cut this year. In a significant shift from its March projections, which included three quarter-percentage-point reductions, the Fed concluded its June 11-12 meeting by stating it would leave its policy rate unchanged, as anticipated by the market. The stock market experienced volatility after the news and the subsequent press conference with Fed Chair Jerome Powell. While the S&P 500 and Nasdaq pared their gains, the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished the day nearly flat. Stocks opened higher after the Labor Department reported that the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) was unexpectedly unchanged in May, due to a decline in gasoline prices. This softer inflation data initially fueled market optimism. "The CPI number was certainly cooler than estimates and drove optimism to start the day, but that was only half of today's menu," noted Michael James, managing director of equity trading at Wedbush Securities in Los Angeles. The mixed signals from the inflation data and the Fed's cautious stance on interest rate cuts created a complex trading environment, leaving investors to navigate between optimism and uncertainty.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by SroshMayi
Hellena | SPX500 (4H): Long to the area of 5443 level.Dear colleagues, since the 5351 level has been broken, I believe that wave “2” has been completed, which means that wave “3”, which consists of five small waves, is currently developing. Now I assume that either the price will continue the small wave “1”, or will form a small wave “2” in the area of 61.8% Fibonacci level, then continue the upward movement to the area of 5443 level. Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by Hellena_Trade
10
SPX Continues Its Bullish Trend (CPI + FED RATE)SP500 Index Technical Analysis SPX Continues Its Bullish Trend The price successfully retested and pushed higher, reaching our previously mentioned target. Today's Outlook: The market is maintaining its bullish trend, aiming for approximately 5420. The release of the CPI data today will significantly impact the market. A CPI reading below 3.4% is expected to be positive for indices, potentially driving the SPX to a new all-time high. Bullish Scenario: As long as trades above 5372 means will continue the bullish trend toward 5420 Bearish Scenario: If the price trades below 5372, it indicates a potential drop towards 5347. A breach of 5347 could further lead to 5320. Stabilizing below 5301 would activate the downward area, with the next target at 5260. - Pivot Line: 5372 - Resistance Levels: 5404, 5422, 5484 - Support Levels: 5347, 5320, 5301 Today's Expected Trading Range: - Support: 5320 - Resistance: 5480 In summary, maintaining a position above 5347 favors a bullish outlook, aiming for higher resistance levels. Conversely, trading below 5347 suggests a bearish trend, with potential support targets at 5320 and 5301. Our Previous idea:
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by SroshMayi
Cancellation of “Head-and-Shoulders” Pattern. Bears trapThe "Head-and-Shoulders" (H&S) pattern is considered a powerful trend reversal indicator. However, it can also become very costly for new traders. Yesterday, the S&P provided a great example of H&S cancellation. Traders who entered short on the break-out of the shoulders line (and Monday's low) incurred losses after the price returned to the previous day's range and rallied all the way up. Such scenarios happen more often than you might think. To avoid being caught in such traps, it is important to consider two things: 1. Higher Level Context : In this example, the H&S pattern formed on the hourly time frame. But if we zoom out, we'll see that on the weekly chart, the price is in a strong uptrend, currently making new historical highs. This is a very bullish context, with buyers having full control over the price. 2. Price Behavior on the Break-out : Upon confirmation of a reversal pattern, you should expect sellers to jump in and drive the price down as fast as possible. It is "abnormal" to see the price returning to the previous range and gaining acceptance. This is a trigger that something is not right. Some people will add volume analysis on the break-out, but I’m personally not a fan of it, especially for SPY.
AMEX:SPYEducation
by hermes_trisme
2024-06-11 - a daily price action after hour update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. overall market comment Dax continues with daily new lows in a two-sided market. Nasdaq made another ath 48 points higher and broke above it’s wedge. Mixed markets going into tomorrows CPI and FOMC releases. I expect nothing less of a firework to either direction. For sp500 and nasdaq I expect a complete blow-off top if CPI is not really hot and then only Jpow can save the bears. For nasdaq at this point the 20000 target is absolutely reasonable and in reach. If the numbers align tomorrow, we will see more bear slaughter. Commodities had a trading range day. Gold is trying to grind higher but new highs get sold off hard on bigger volume and oil is keeping it above 77, which is very bullish imo. Bulls can probably get another leg up to 80 again. sp500 e-mini futures comment: Bulls got their big leg up to a new ath again. It’s still not breaking clearly above 5400, which would make all bears capitulate so we can melt to 5500 or higher. It’s a clear trading range with small higher highs. Everything below 5340 is bought, so you know exactly where to buy. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 5330 - 5387 bull case: Again, I can not go full-bull because we are still inside the trading range. Tomorrow will bring a big move to either side. Bull targets have been in my weekly chart for many months now. On the daily chart you can draw multiple bull wedges and market broke above the smallest today. Confirmation would be above 5400. Invalidation is below 5360. bear case: Bears had a rather strong EU session but bulls gave em the finger with bar 10 and a 40 point reversal. They need to keep it below 5400 or I think many stops will be triggered and bears will give up. If bears get help from CPI or Jpow tomorrow, 5300 is the obvious first target and below that comes last week’s low 5200. TBH I can see a move down to 5155, which is the 50% pb from this trading range 4935 - 5385. If CPI prints hot and Jpow hammers on top, the market will have to react because it is not positioned for any risk what so ever. Invalidation is above 5400. short term: Bearish here at 5386 for at least 5355 again. Invalid above 5400. Don’t trade tomorrow’s news events. It’s mostly gambling. medium-long term: Bearish. We will see 5000 over the next weeks again and 4600 over the next 12 months. —unchanged current swing trade: None trade of the day: Long 5340 or since bar 10. No if’s or buts. Has worked the last days so expect it to work again until it clearly stops working.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
SPX Continues Bullish Trend After RetestSPX Continues Bullish Trend After Retest The SPX has completed its retest and subsequently pushed higher, maintaining its bullish trend. As long as the index trades above the key levels of 5347 and 5320, the bullish momentum is expected to continue. This week, the SPX is projected to reach the initial target of 5378, with the potential to advance further towards 5423. Bullish Scenario: the price has a bullish trend to reach 5378 as long as trades above 5347, breaking 5378 means will continue the bullish trend to get 5423 Bearish Scenario: If the price trades below 5347, it indicates a potential drop towards 5320. A breach of 5320 could further lead to 5301. Stabilizing below 5301 would activate the bearish area, with the next target at 5260. Key Level - Pivot Line: 5347 - Resistance Levels: 5378, 5400, 5423 - Support Levels: 5320, 5301, 5260 Today's Expected Trading Range: - Support: 5320 - Resistance: 5420 In summary, maintaining a position above 5347 favors a bullish outlook, aiming for higher resistance levels. Conversely, trading below 5347 suggests a bearish trend, with potential support targets at 5320 and 5301.
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by SroshMayi
2024-06-10 - a daily price action after hour update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. sp500 e-mini futures comment: Can see a diamond pattern on the 1h tf and the recent triangle we are forming. Market is in breakout mode. The move from bar 36 - 44 was strong but afterwards market was in a weak bull channel above the 15m 20ema. The buying above 5360 was weak and I expect bears to trade back down to 5350 tomorrow. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 5330 - 5385 bull case: In my weekly outlook I was more bullish above 5320 for another leg up to 5500. After today’s price action above 5360, I’m not so sure. If bulls can break above 5380 and the ath 5385, sure they can get it but today’s highs were not bought eagerly. Bulls remain in full control, trading above 15/60 and daily 20ema. Invalidation is below 5350. bear case: Bears see today’s bull channel as a weaker one, which already had 4 pushes to the upper trend line. They want a reversal below the ath tomorrow and test back down to at least 5350 and then the open of this week at 5347. I expect bears to keep the market inside the triangle for most of tomorrow and going into the CPI release. Invalidation is above 5400. short term: neutral inside given range. Bulls would need to break strongly above 5380 for me to go long up here. medium-long term: Bearish. We will see 5000 over the next weeks again and 4600 over the next 12 months. —unchanged current swing trade: None trade of the day: Long double bottom bar 18 + 36 on bar 39. 15m 20ema held so you could have held into close.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds