SPX (S&P 500 Index)
SPx (US Futures Dip Ahead of PCE Data with Technical) US Futures Dip Ahead of PCE Data
US stock futures edged lower on Friday as investors braced for the April PCE price index report, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge.
Technical Analyse:
The price dropped by approximately 0.27% from yesterday and reached our target, as mentioned in the previous analysis.
For today, the price is expected to move between 5240 and 5220 until a breakout occurs. Bearish pressure remains , and stability below 5220 will likely support a further decline to 5192, with 5168 as the next target. Conversely, stability above 5240 will suggest an attempt to reach 5260.
Pivot Line: 5226
Resistance Levels: 5260, 5284, 5320
Support Levels: 5193, 5168, 5114
Today’s expected trading range is between the support at 5168 and the resistance at 5262.
previous idea:
S&P stalls in indecision; still bullishLast week was marked with indecision. Market was moving in a narrow range while Buyers were waiting for FOMC ad NVDIA’s earnings. After receiving positive confirmation (FOMC neutral, earnings good) market tried to go higher but found no support from large players. Sellers took advantage of the weakness and dropped price, clearing many weak longs established in the previous 5 days. It was a strong move but for some reason sellers lacked conviction to go lower. Price pivoted after filling the gap from Wednesday 15th and went back into the balance zone ( 527.5-531.5 ).
We should expect more pushes and pulls in the short term while market is fishing for new information. To confirm their control buyers must clear last week high ( 533 ) and build value above it. Bears’ objective is to break last week low ( 525 ). Until it happens the most likely scenario is bracketing within last week range.
It is important to note that while short term direction is unclear, we are still in weekly uptrend. So bears must work twice hard to prove their strength
Disclaimer
I don't give trading or investing advice, just sharing my thoughts.
S&P500: Don't expect any sizeable correction any time soon.The S&P500 index is on very healthy bullish levels on the 1D timeframe (RSI = 63.385, MACD = 146.190, ADX = 48.596) showcasing in the best possible way the bullish bias of the long term trend and pattern, which is a Channel Up. This month's pullback is perhaps the best buy entry we can have as in relative terms based on the 1W CCI, the index is printing a consolidation phase similar to August-October 2020.
As long as the 1W MA50 is in support, we expect the Channel Up to gradually rise in the same manner as then and by early 2025 possibly hit the 1.618 Fibonacci extension (TP = 6,800).
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TRUMP vs BIDEN : These 7 Charts Reveal AllThese charts will point out not only the difference between 4 year terms, but also the effect of the worldwide Coronavirus on different sectors.
Just so you know, I am not advising for or against either candidate solely on what they could do or have done for a certain industry. Instead, this post aims to inform and point out the market's response during each Presidential period. It's also important to consider the effect of Covid (marked by the purple line).
1) DXY / TVC:DXY
The U.S. dollar index (USDX) is a measure of the U.S. dollar's value relative to the majority of its most significant trading partners, including the Euro (constituting 57.6% of the weighting), Japanese Yen (13.6%), British Pound (11.9%), Canadian Dollar (9.1%), Swedish Krona (4.2%) and Swiss Franc (3.6%).
Under President Trump, the DXY fell 14% the moment he took office. The DXY then recovered the 14% over the next two years, but dropped again as the Coronavirus crisis was declared a global pandemic in May 2020.
Under President Biden, the DXY rose from post-covid lows by 27%, then retraced 12% unto where it is now trading steadily.
I'll use the following chart below as a reference to how we will be measuring (the difference between inherited point to exit, as seen by the measuring tool).
Change from inherited point to exit:
TRUMP: -13%
BIDEN (inherited point to current) : +19%
2) Consumer Confidence Index / ECONOMICS:USCCI
This Index index measures Americans' assessment of current economic conditions and their outlook for the next six months. The consumer confidence remained fairly stable under Trump, but fell drastically with the announcement of the Covid pandemic. Biden inherited a declining consumer confidence, but the CCI managed to recover with 57.6% after hitting the lowest lows during the midst of the Coronavirus pandemic.
The CCI has not been able to recover to pre-covid highs, showing that consumers are not yet comfortable with the current state of economic affairs.
Change from inherited point to exit:
TRUMP: -19.5%
BIDEN (inherited point to current) : -2.4%
3) Inflation / ECONOMICS:USIRYY
Initially the inflation rate was fairly stable under Trump, and then started to fall drastically, dropping -95%... until Covid. Since Biden took office, the inflation rate increased by 550%, but managed to drop back down by 62% after peaking during covid.
Change from inherited point to exit:
TRUMP: -44.8%
BIDEN (inherited point to current) : +141%
4) S&P 500 / SP:SPX
Trump talked-up the stockmarket as a measure of his presidency when he was in office. (Not that the SPX is something presidents have much control over, but let's take a look at it anyway).
The s&p 500 index of big American firms is higher since Biden took office, but it rose twice as much during Trump’s first 1,000 days in office.
Change from inherited point to exit:
TRUMP: +63%
BIDEN (inherited point to current) : +40.8%
5) United States Employment Rate / ECONOMICS:USEMR
In United States, the employment rate measures the number of people who have a job as a percentage of the working age population. The USEMR was increasing steadily up to 2% when Covid hit.
Under the Biden administration, unlike many European countries, America decided to give money to workers, rather than pay companies to keep people in employment. The share in work fell, but America’s economy bounced back more quickly than Europe’s. Biden administration takes credit for a 4.8% increase since taking office.
Change from inherited point to exit:
TRUMP: -14.5%
BIDEN (inherited point to current) : +4.8%
6) Unemployment Rate / FRED:UNRATE
Trump inherited a steadily decreasing unemployment rate from the Obama administration. The UNRATE continued to drop until -25.8% after which, again, covid. It is true that the Biden administration inherited a tough one here, and there has been a 15% increase after bottoming out during April 2023. Unfortunately, this chart seems to be steadily increasing.
Change from inherited point to exit:
TRUMP: +36.4%
BIDEN (inherited point to current) : -39%
7) Money Supply / ECONOMICS:USM2
US M2 refers to the measure of money supply that includes financial assets held mainly by households such as savings deposits, time deposits, and balances in retail money market mutual funds, in addition to more readily-available liquid financial assets as defined by the M1 measure of money, such as currency, traveler's checks, demand deposits, and other checkable deposits. Historically, when the money supply dramatically increased in global economies, there would be a following dramatic increase in prices of goods and services, which would then follow monetary policy with the aim to maintain inflation levels low.
Trump administration inherited a steeply increasing supply which kept increasing rapidly. Currently, under the Biden administration, the M2 seems to be moving towards an equilibrium.
Change from inherited point to exit:
TRUMP: +45%
BIDEN (inherited point to current) : +7.7%
______________________
Note that these are not THE ONLY charts we can look at. In fact, I encourage you to post yours below! Which other measures are you looking at? Treasury, perhaps Bonds? Feel free to share them and lets compare!
$TAN Solar Starting to Shine?AMEX:TAN ETF looks like it has started a nice move. I got in on this one May 9th as it broke above the downtrend line for the second time since the gap up May 3rd. It came close to stopping me out on May 21st, but it held above my stop. I was rewarded on May 22nd with a massive volume surge, due in part by the big move on $FSLR. It looks to me to be at an area that may prove to be resistance. I am expecting some consolidation here (just because I expect it, doesn’t mean it will happen). If it can consolidate a bit and then break above that area, I will look to add to this position. I have a two-thirds size now. I think it can run to the $54 area from here. All TBD.
The chart I am using is the All-In-One LevelUp tool available here on TV. Check it out.
Ideas, not investing / trading advice. Comments always welcome. Thanks for looking.
SPX500 support needs to be monitoredThe SPX500 is still reeling from the sell-down last Thursday. There is a lower peak followed by a lower trough, but the index is at important support.
This video is intended for the users of Stratos Markets Limited, Stratos Trading Pty. Limited and Stratos Global LLC, (collectively “FXCM Group”).
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”), previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com) :
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com) :
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763). Please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy.
Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website:
Stratos Markets Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com
Stratos Europe Ltd clients please see: www.fxcm.com
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC clients please see: www.fxcm.com
Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
SPx (Affect of GDP...)Technical analysis of SPx
The price dropped from its resistance line at 5320 and is now consolidating between 5266 and 5226. Today, we anticipate significant market volatility with the GDP results expected at 1.2%. The price will likely touch 5266 before dropping towards 5226.
If the price stabilizes below 5226, it will support a further decline towards 5192, entering a bearish territory. Conversely, breaking above 5266 will support a rise towards 5300 and 5320.
Pivot Line: 5266
Resistance Levels: 5285, 5305, 5325
Support Levels: 5226, 5193, 5160
Today’s expected trading range is between the support at 5192 and the resistance at 5266.
previous idea:
SPX Big Short 2Two years after my last big short on SPX, the price has once again reached the top of the ascending channel. Based on this scenario , the expectation is that SPX will peak within the next two months , around early May 2024.
Initial target 4,800, stretch 4,400
Incidentally, Bitcoin appears poised to surpass its 2021 all-time high, during which Bitcoin peaked two months prior to the SPX 2022 high.
Coincidence? Possibly
Best, Hard Forky
Bulls and Bears zone for 05-29-2024After a mixed session yesterday, market is selling off during ETH session.
Any test of ETH session Low could provide direction for the day.
Level to watch: 5283 ---5281
SPx (Another Bear will come...)SPx New Forecast
The price of the S&P 500 reversed from its support line at 5266 and can now reach the resistance line at approximately 5305, with the potential to touch 5320 as well.
If the price remains below 5305 and 5320, it will likely fall back to the support line at 5266. Breaking this level could extend the bearish trend towards 5226.
Pivot Line: 5305
Resistance Levels: 5325, 5350, 5400
Support Levels: 5266, 5227, 5193
Today’s expected trading range is between the support 5266 and the resistance 5325.
S&P 500 Tests 5,300 as Inflation Eases, Fed Policy in FocusThe market remains cautiously optimistic as the S&P 500 tests the 5300 resistance level. The deceleration in inflation is promising, yet the Federal Reserve's future monetary policy remains uncertain. Investors should stay vigilant, monitoring economic data and Fed communications to navigate potential volatility and capitalize on market opportunities.
* S&P 500 at Resistance: The index tests 5,300 amid recent inflation data.
* Inflation Slowdown: Core CPI rose just 0.3% in April, the slowest pace in 3 years. This boosted stocks, with the S&P 500 reaching a new high.
* Fed Policy: The Fed may hold steady on rates in the near term, but a September cut is increasingly likely if inflation continues to moderate.
* Key Upcoming Data: The PCE price index (will released this week) and future inflation reports will be crucial for gauging the Fed's policy stance.
* Market Outlook: Cautious optimism prevails as investors weigh the inflation slowdown and potential Fed actions.
Members Daily Analysis May 27 2024SPX into monthly resistance.
NVDA carrying the market as other semis lag.
Oil reversing off support...trying to breakout of falling wedge.
Yields quietly moving over the CPI dump last week.
over 55% of the S&P500 companies trading below the 50day.
S&P500 Buy opportunity on 4H.The S&P500 index is recovering from the last Higher Low at the bottom of the Channel Up, which even broke below the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) last Thursday for the first time since May 02. The 4H MACD is forming the first Bullish Cross since that very same date, which was also a recovery sequence after a bottom on the Channel Up pattern.
Having also breached into the Ichimoku Cloud and rebounded, we expect a similar short-term rally towards the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the Channel Up. That rally's first stop was on the 1.618 Fibonacci extension. As a result, our current Target is 5400 (marginally below the 1.618 Fib).
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BRIEFING Week #21: Market Breadth & DominanceHere's your weekly update ! Brought to you each weekend with years of track-record history..
Don't forget to hit the like/follow button if you feel like this post deserves it ;)
That's the best way to support me and help pushing this content to other users.
Kindly,
Phil
Can we go back to reality?Congratulations NVDA, because you delivered everything you could deliver in terms of good results, however, can we get back to reality?
Will the Black Monday that we experienced in 1987, in the DOW JONES index, be experienced again in 2024, and thanks to NVDA and technology companies?
We know what happened between 1980 and 1985 to the American economy, right?
It is known that in the 1980s and early 1990s, dollars could circulate freely around the world, so much so that we had a global economic miracle, and the world was swimming in booming growth.
But, at the current moment, dollars can no longer circulate freely around the world (FED, China, Russia) and continue contributing to global growth? Therefore, the technological war we are experiencing today (chips and electric cars), diverted dollars to these sectors, further inflating this bubble that is about to burst.
Speaking of electric cars, China is firmly dumping its electric cars around the world at very reasonable prices (as it has no intention of breaking its internal market – control), once and for all destroying the automobile industry in many emerging countries, oh my, no?
Let's go graphics.
Monthly: NVDA has reached the three golden levels of the FIB of the SETUP used, so there is nowhere else to go. So, SPX, get ready.
The red lines are resistance points.
Weekly: With the brilliant financial report recently released, prices are ready to seek the golden region of this chart period.
The red lines are resistance points.
Daily. Prices have reached the region of 100% of the bullish pivot.
The red lines are resistance points.
Do your analysis and good business.
Be aware, if you buy, use stop loss.
See other graphical analyzes below.
S&P - Short Trade IdeaHere is a short trade idea on the S&P, using the SPX500USD chart.
We are basically at all time highs right now. This short idea is based on buyside liquidity recently raided, and now looking to ride a retracement/reversal down to a Discount PD Array.
There was a good-looking Unicorn setup that formed. Price is already in an entry area, but I've indicated a higher POI should price come up one more time (if we are ready to retrace). The targets are either Weekly BISIs, with the terminus at the beginning of the lowest Weekly BISI.
Overall, a pretty straight-forward trade. Since this is the 4h, I will be looking for a lower timeframe manipulation at a Killzone during a likely day, or news event to confirm lower prices.
- R2F
SPX Is Going Down! Sell!
Here is our detailed technical review for SPX.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is testing a major horizontal structure 5,304.15.
Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 5,178.42 level soon.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
S&P bulls are unstoppable; market reaches new highMarket closed strongly last week after reaching a new historical high. There was some sluggish consolidation on Thursday-Friday but near end of Friday trading hours, bulls put end to it by setting hourly higher low. Friday closed within Thursday’s range after a failed break-out, which is a very bullish signal.
Currently, we have full alignment on all major timeframe: price is in uptrend on weekly, daily and hourly timeframes. There are absolutely no warning signs that would speak for bears.
Both short- and long-term outlooks are bullish. If you're already in a long position, you're fortunate and can rest easy. If you're considering entering the market, you can either wait for another pullback or enter now with a reasonable stop-loss.
FOMC minutes are coming out on Wednesday, which could cause some unexpected volatility. However, if there are no major surprises, the bullish thesis remains unchanged.
Disclaimer
I don't give trading or investing advice, just sharing my thoughts.
SPX500 potential buy the dip opportunityYesterday the SPX500 dropped around 0.8%. this sets up an interesting dynamic where short-term traders may look to capitalize.
This video is intended for the users of Stratos Markets Limited, Stratos Trading Pty. Limited and Stratos Global LLC, (collectively “FXCM Group”).
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”), previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com) :
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com) :
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763). Please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy.
Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website:
Stratos Markets Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com
Stratos Europe Ltd clients please see: www.fxcm.com
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC clients please see: www.fxcm.com
Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
Trading Plan for Friday, May 24th, 2024Trading Plan for Friday, May 24th, 2024
Market Sentiment: Uncertain, as the market has transitioned from a rally to a short-term dip. Bulls are attempting to defend key supports, while bears are looking for further downside continuation.
Key Supports
Immediate Supports: 5265 (major), 5253 (major)
Major Supports: 5230-35 (major), 5202 (major), 5177 (major)
Key Resistances
Near-term Resistance: 5293 (major), 5302 (major)
Major Resistances: 5317 (major), 5380 (major), 5400 (major)
Trading Strategy
Post-Rally Dip: The market is now in a short-term dip after a prolonged rally. Exercise caution and avoid chasing longs or shorts.
Long Opportunities: Look for a bounce and reclaim above 5274 for potential long entries. Consider failed breakdowns at 5265 or a dip and reclaim at 5230-35 for more aggressive long entries.
Short Opportunities: Consider shorts at 5317 (if the market rallies strongly) or on failed breakdowns below 5265 after a bounce/retest. Exercise caution and take profits level-to-level.
Focus on Reactions and Price Discovery: Wait for confirmation signals and clear reactions at key levels before committing to any trades.
Bull Case
Defending Support: Bulls need to defend the 5265-72 zone to prevent further downside and maintain the possibility of a bounce.
Reclaiming Resistances: If bulls reclaim the 5293 and 5302 levels, the dip could be considered over, opening up a potential move towards the previous highs.
Bear Case
Breakdown Signals: A convincing break below 5265 could trigger further selling, targeting 5230-35 and potentially deeper levels. Look for bounces/failed breakdowns at these levels for potential short entries.
News: Top Stories for May 24th, 2024
📈 U.S. Durable Goods Orders: The latest data shows an unexpected increase in April, suggesting resilience in manufacturing despite economic headwinds.
🌍 Geopolitical Tensions and Their Economic Impacts: Recent surveys indicate that geopolitical risks are a top concern for global family offices, with significant implications for asset allocations in North America and Asia Pacific.
🛡️ Shifts in Safe Haven Assets: In an environment of growing debt concerns, investors are increasingly turning to gold over traditional government bonds, marking a significant shift in safe haven preferences.
🌎 Climate Change and Economic Impact: A session at the 10th World Water Forum highlighted the severe economic repercussions of climate change and water scarcity in Laos, underscoring the urgent need for sustainable water management solutions.
📊 Global PMI Data Releases: The release of the S&P Global Services and Manufacturing PMI reports provides critical insights into the economic conditions of the services and manufacturing sectors, which are key indicators of overall economic health.
BTC Looking to Rise Against The SPX with Inflation ExpectationsIt is sort of starting to look like Bitcoin will soon start to move inverse to the SPX and become more positively correlated with a Defensive Asset or Inflation Hedge which would mean we could see BTC more than double in value against the SPX as the BTCUSD pair starts to trade similarly to Cocoa or OJ futures once it breaks out above the resistance.
S&P 500 Falls 0.7% Amid Investor Uncertainty S&P 500 Falls 0.7% Amid Investor Uncertainty
The S&P 500 OANDA:SPX500USD declined by 0.7% on a subdued Thursday as investors adjusted their portfolios amid fluctuating market sentiment. The trading session was marked by an uneasy atmosphere following the release of the Federal Reserve's latest meeting minutes, which indicated that central bankers are not in a hurry to reduce interest rates . This cautious stance from the Fed has been a key factor in supporting the recent upward trend in stocks.
Technically Side:
The price has declined and reached the breakout zone, indicating a potential return to the 5266 level. To continue the bearish trend, the price must break below 5266, confirmed by closing a 4-hour or 1-hour candle under this level. If this occurs, the next targets would be 5226 and 5193.
Conversely, if the price closes above 5282, it would suggest a bullish trend, with the potential to reach 5307 and subsequently 5320.
Pivot Line: 5282
Resistance Levels: 5305, 5325, 5350
Support Levels: 5245, 5227, 5193
Today’s expected trading range is between the support 5192 and the resistance 5320.
