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SPX (S&P 500 Index)

S&P bulls regain control, aiming for the new highAfter the major sell-off in the first week of September, the market has made a U-turn, rebounding to its previous highs. This outcome was anticipated as highly likely in my last review, though, as is often the case, the market exceeded boldest expectations. Currently, we have confirmed a weekly higher low, which provides a solid foundation for the continuation of the uptrend. It’s also worth noting that the rally is being driven by risk-on assets like XLK and XLY, reflecting growing investor confidence. The mid- and long-term outlook remains bullish, though heightened volatility is expected as we approach the US elections. Important levels: 539.4 - major weekly low. Bulls must protect this level to keep uptrend intact 565.2 – major monthly high. There might be some resistance at this level. Bulls must clear it for uptrend continuation. FOMC meeting is set for Wednesday but it is not expected to bring big surprises.
AMEX:SPYLong
by hermes_trisme
Combined US Indexes - Bullish Flip?Previously though that there would be some volatility and a bearish trend forming with a previous low revisited, BUT NO... volatility popped and then so did the indexes. They bounced to meet the trendline resistance to end the week. In the same effort, closed the Gap as well. Meanwhile, MACD and VolDiv are turning upwards in support. Current flip to Bullish Confirms with breakout of trendline (after Gap closure) Watch these week's price action...
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by Auguraltrader
SPX direction after first and last FED rate cutsThis chart compares FED rate cuts to SPX chart. The last 3 times after the first rate cuts there was a slight upward rally of the SP500 of about 5-10%, before going on a bearish retrace of about -40%, -50% & -20%, and then bottoming out only AFTER the final rate cut. Based on this, if history repeats, there might be a year end upward movement in the stock market, perhaps followed by a retrace through 2025 until the final rate cut. And then massively up from there again. The last 3 times rate cuts did not mean sp500 starts going up immediately. There was a retrace instead. SP500 went up only AFTER the final rate cut.
FRED:FEDFUNDSShort
by strip
#202438 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr sp500: Neutral. Big triangle on the daily chart and we are 40 points below the previous big resistance. Resistance is just that until clearly broken. Sideways movement between 5400 - 5670 is more likely than a new ath above 5721. If bulls break above 5670, a new ath becomes more likely and bellow 5550 I think the bears are favored again, at least for 5400. Quote from last week: comment: Strong bearish momentum is what we got with the bearish engulfing candle on Monday and market never looked back. 50% pullback is almost exactly at Friday’s close and if we get a pullback before 5200, it will be here. What are the chances? No idea, so every time that is so, it’s 50/50. Absolutely favoring the bears to continue down to 5200, with or without pullback. So if we get one, I will load on swing shorts. comment: Favored the bears last week and wanted to load on shorts on this pullback but bears were practically gone, so no shorts for me. Lower highs and higher lows. Triangle on the daily chart until broken. Not much difference to the other indexes. Above 5670 bulls are favored for 5700+ and maybe a new ath and bears would need a strong reversal below 5650 for bulls to cover their longs again. Similar to 2024-09-03 where bears printed a huge bearish engulfing bar, that is that they would need here as well. current market cycle: trading range (triangle) key levels: 5400 - 5700 bull case: Traps on both sides and 5630 is a very good place to trap bulls again, like they did 2 weeks ago. Not much more to say other what I wrote in my comment. Bulls are slightly favored here until bears come around again but buying above 5600 right now is a bad trade, no matter how you put it. If bulls get follow through on Monday, I join them but no earlier. Invalidation is below 5500. bear case: Bears need to keep this a lower high or probably face a new ath test. Since bulls printed a 5 bar micro channel last week, bears have no good arguments until they print a bear bar on the daily chart. Market is undecided and erratic, don’t overstay your welcome to either side. If we see 5700+ next week, I will think deeply about when and where to short. Last time we hit 5700, market spent 5 days around that price before turning down hard for 10%. Invalidation is above 5670. outlook last week: short term: Full bear mode and yet we could get a 100+ point pullback. So shorting 5419 is not advisable as of now. Wait for bears to come around again. If bulls can get to 5500 again, look for a reversal and then you could load up on shorts. I do think it’s more likely that we will make high lows instead of lower lows and form a triangle. → Last Sunday we traded 5419 and now we are at 5629. I warned against being bearish at the lows and wait for a pullback. Pullback was way stronger than expected so meh outlook. short term : Neutral between 5400 - 5670. I slightly favor the bears when they print a good bear bar on Monday because of the triangle. Above 5670 I scalp long and see how high we can get. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01: Very much like my outlook in dax. Trading range on the daily chart and we are at the highs. We could make higher ones or not. Does not matter much. I expect 5000 to be hit again in 2024. current swing trade: None. chart update: Removed the ABC correction and added the bull wedge.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
Market Indecision 2024! (Diamond Reversal)It has been an interesting few years in the markets. One of the hottest bull runs coming off the Pandemic lows to a 7 month bear market in 2022, followed by another epic bull run! We are now at a major decision point for markets. Up or Down! Recession fears abound while small caps are ready to pop waiting on rate cuts. The S&P as lopsided as ever with Mag 7 carrying the entire index for 2 years. Where are we going next? At every "potential" market top, the convergence between an ascending channel meets a potential descending channel forming a diamond shaped pattern. This pattern is the indecision point of any given market, but don't get bearish yet. A diamond reversal pattern can break in either direction, reversal or continuation . I have documented both the historical moves and the future potential paths. Remember that markets are not pre-ordained to do anything. They have to make decisions, and while you may have already decided your personal view, you can let the market confirm your biases one step at a time. React! Don't predict! 1) Halfway mark from 10/23 run to $6000 target -4/19 bottom starts 2nd leg -Bull Flag Consolidation 2) Diamond Reversal (Minor) -Rate cuts? Yes/No -And Why? Economy vs Inflation **Upside Breakout on 9/13 3) Rate cuts hinted for Sep FOMC -Halted 38% run from 10/23 -Halted 62% run from 10/22 4) Required drop to form minor/major diamond of indecision. -Blamed on Japanese Carry Trade* -Note the drop is perfect 78.6% retrace from 4/19 Run *Japanese Carry Trade margin collapse was instead caused by formation. **This was also opportunistic early rotation into treasuries. 5) Bullish rejection of minor diamond -Resilient CPI and Jobs provide cover for soft landing narrative. -Note the rejection confirms on diamond neutral line @ 38.2% 4/19 fib and healthy 20WMA bounce 6) Rate Cuts!!! -Rate cut odds are near equal between .25 vs .50 -Note a rejection confirms Double Top -Breakout confirms $6000 7) Blow off top!!! -Note the identical pattern to 2022 top *The Ancient Trendline is based on a back-dated creation of the S&P 500 by Standard & Poors as the index was founded in 1957 8) Bullish Ascending Channel starts in Jun-Oct 2022 -A short break here confirms new bearish descending channel and major diamond reversal. -This will be your bearish hint towards bearish 2025 but don't short yet!! -No break confirms ascending channel but EOY will give one more opportunity for a break. 9) End of Year typical Tax Loss Harvesting, Santa Rally, etc. -Unlikely to see a bullish breakout here -If Continuation occurs, it will be Jan into Feb 10) Last chance for Bears! -Need bearish breakdown to confirm both diamond and descending channel 11) Descension confirmation marks several opportunities on path down for bullish break outs -Initial Support @ $4800 (20% drop from top) -Secondary Support @ $4450 (25% drop from top) -Massive Support @ $4144 (30% drop from top) Best of luck in 2025 whatever you decide! Game on!
CBOE:SPX
by jasonchristy
4
SPY: Short-Term Selloff Anticipated After Fed Rate Cut DecisionIf you haven`t bought the recent dip on SPY: Now you need to know that as the Federal Reserve approaches its rate cut decision this week, speculation is high that we may see a larger-than-expected cut of 50 basis points rather than the anticipated 25. This could trigger a short-term selloff in equities, including the SPY (S&P 500 ETF), despite the initial market reaction. The market often exhibits a “buy the rumor, sell the news” behavior, and this situation could be no different. With expectations set for a 25 basis point cut, a surprise 50 basis point reduction might lead to concerns about the underlying economic conditions. This could prompt a selloff in major indices, including SPY, as traders and investors react to the Fed’s unexpected move. In the immediate aftermath of the Fed decision, SPY might see a brief uptick as market participants adjust their positions and optimism prevails. However, this short-term rally could be quickly overshadowed by a broader correction. As the market digests the implications of the Fed's actions and potential economic concerns come to light, SPY is likely to experience a pullback. For those looking to capitalize on this potential downturn, the $550 strike price puts expiring on October 18, 2024, could be a prudent choice. These puts offer a strategic way to hedge against or profit from the anticipated short-term decline in SPY. Given the expected correction following the Fed's rate cut, this option could provide significant value as SPY faces downward pressure. While SPY may experience an initial rise in response to the Fed’s decision, the broader market sentiment is likely to shift towards risk aversion, leading to a correction in the weeks following the announcement. By October 18, the broader market and SPY could be reflecting these adjustments, making the $550 puts a timely investment. In summary, while SPY might see some early gains next week, a correction is expected to follow as the market reacts to the Fed’s decision. The $550 strike price puts expiring on October 18, 2024, could offer a valuable opportunity for those anticipating this short-term volatility.
AMEX:SPYShort
by TopgOptions
BTCUSD | ViolationClassic price-based ribbons are commonly used. Their inversion signifies a bear market, while their normalization a bull one. They are unfortunately very laggy. In markets, it is trends that change first and then prices. Therefore, a trend-based ribbon can prove a highly responsive and clear way to visualize market cycles. This trend-based ribbon can be used as a price centerline and as an indicator of market trends. With this trend-based ribbon, the famous 1970s stagflation and the 2000s stagnation is clearly discernible. Applying this indicator to Bitcoin, we realize the following. We are entering a period o stagnation for Bitcoin. Its trend-ribbon has began inverting. This has happened in 2015 and 2022. Also notice the broader Crypto problems. P.S. PineCoders have banned dozens of my indicators for violating "House Rules" I don't know which rule in specific, because many of them were open-source. Some of you may have briefly seen some of them before their demise. The protagonist indicator of this idea, called Trend-Based Ribbon, got banned yesterday. This idea is posted after following some useful guidance from PineCoders. In this fashion, I can analyze a chart and talk about it with you, while at the same time showing you the reaction of my indicators. I thank them for the workaround. Feel free to ask for a private copy by commenting below. I will get to you ASAP. Individual, you are convicted of multi-anti-civil violations . Implicit citizenship revoked, status: malignant P.S. Again... I got sick of having all of my work banned. I have been developing these indicators for hundreds of hours, only to see them locked for no explanation. (They can't ban an idea now, can they?)
INDEX:BTCUSD
by akikostas
14
Markets Finding Equilibrium Before FOMCAll major indexes and broad market advancing today with the US CPI/PPI combo causing some big recoveries since the post Labor Day selloff. Momentum goes to the bulls for now until price proves otherwise. FED likely to cut 25 bps next week with more to come by end of year. It's amazing how quickly sentiment can shift like it did with Aug 1-5 and after, and again Sep 3-6 and after. I hope you enjoy today's video. Friday's close for the day and week will be important and perhaps it's all quiet on the western front heading into FOMC next week where price can be excitable and volatile, but we'll do our best to navigate everything. Thanks for watching!!! See you in the markets.
AMEX:XLRE
by ChrisPulver
1
2024-09-12 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Strong follow through by the bulls after another nasty bear trap. On lower time frames we got some sell spikes but mostly due to bulls taking profits and not strong bears shorting. Bullish price action can’t be denied and on the daily charts we are moving closer to the shallow bear trend lines from the ath and we are mostly inside triangles. Daily charts tell the story and it’s bullish so we can’t expect a strong bear reversal tomorrow. sp500 e-mini futures comment: Triangle is still my preferred pattern for now. Tomorrow we could see 5640 but anything above is uncertain. At that level I would get out of most longs. Currently I don’t have any interest in selling, since we have seen many bear traps. Today bears could not close a 1h bar below the 20ema, so look how market behaves if we get there again tomorrow. Buy on strength and don’t get fooled into shorts on strong selling. It was strong but disappeared in an instance and bulls melted higher again. current market cycle: t rading range and also minor bull trend inside since we are making higher lows and higher highs key levels: 5400 -5650 bull case: Bulls bought 5550 until bears gave up. The selling around the open was strong enough to trap many bears and that’s why the move up was so violent again. Bulls are in full control until we make lower lows again. Targets above are obvious. Next one is open of the month + high of the month around 5670 and above that is the ath 5721. Last time we got above 5600, market did go sideways for 10 days and this time we could see a breakout above or below somewhat faster. Invalidation is below 5540. bear case: Bears tried to keep it below 5580 but since they could not close below the 1h for 3h, they gave up and market moved up in a perfect small pullback bull trend which held above the 1m 20ema for an hour and 35 points. So what’s next for bears? Do or die moment around 5650 to keep it a lower high. If they fail, we most likely print a new ath. Rough guess is that bears won’t try to close the week with a red bar but just keep it below 5670. Invalidation is above 5670. short term: Max bullishness as long as the 1h 20ema is not broken and until we hit 5650/5660. I’d close longs there on any weakness and probably won’t do anything until next week. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01: Very much like my outlook in dax. Trading range on the daily chart and we are at the highs. We could make higher ones or not. Does not matter much. I expect 5000 to be hit again in 2024. current swing trade: Only intraday scalps currently. Still think next 500 points are made to the downside and not up. trade of the day: Buying the bear trap on the US open was as perfect of a trade as it gets.
CME_MINI:MES1!Long
by priceactiontds
Full ES/SPX Trading Plan for Tmmr Sept 12thPlan for Thursday: Supports: 5554, 5543 (major), 5537, 5528, 5518-15 (major), 5511, 5503 (major), 5492 (major), 5483, 5474, 5467, 5464 (major), 5457, 5445 (major), 5438 (major), 5433, 5423 (major). Today’s session was incredibly strong. I’m still holding my 10% long runner from 5438, over 100 points below. With such a rally, setups are scarce. Why this is a risky time to trade: • Longs are risky as we’re 140 points off the lows, and chasing here without a pullback adds rug-pull risk. • Shorts are risky because fighting the trend after such a big move can be dangerous. • Chop risk is high because both longs and shorts are huge risk Traders need to recognize when the market is ideal for trading and when caution is required. After a huge uptrend day, the market needs time for price discovery: 1. Pullback (the deeper and faster, the better). 2. New pattern/structure forming. For now, I’m protecting profits and not actively trading. Looking for 1 trade. • First key support is 5543, but after such a rally, I’m not interested in buying the first dip, as these supports rarely hold. • A potential trade could arise if we dip to 5537 and recover. Below that, 5515-18 is worth watching, but 5492 is the more interesting level where I’d consider a small long. • If we see a rapid drop below 5492, it’s safer to wait for a recovery above 5502 before entering. If 5492 fails, the rally could be in trouble, with deeper supports at 5464, 5445, and 5424. Should 5424 give way, new lows are possible. Resistances: 5558 (major), 5565, 5572 (major), 5585 (major), 5593, 5605 (major), 5611, 5620, 5630 (major), 5638, 5644, 5654, 5660-62 (major), 5673 (major), 5705-10 (major), 5750, 5757-60 (major), 5794 (major). I avoid shorting into strength, especially after a day like this. Short squeezes in ES are violent, particularly during corrections or bear markets. Traders who want to short should watch 5585-93, a key zone for sellers. If broken, the path to all-time highs is smooth. Buyers Case for Tomorrow: After today’s monster squeeze, a pullback or red day tomorrow wouldn’t be surprising and might be healthy. Generally, the buyers case would see ES push higher to backtest 5585-93, which includes the bull flag resistance and 5585, where last week’s breakdown triggered the September crash. A strong buyers case would involve flagging under today’s highs and above 5542. Losing 5542 could signal a deeper pullback toward the supports discussed. Normally, I’d suggest adding on strength, but after a 140-point rally without a pullback, I can’t advocate chasing longs. Flagging between 5542 and 5566 could be constructive for a breakout to 5585-93, a decision point. If buyers return and accept that level, the next targets are 5605, 5630, and 5660 for a potential run at all-time highs. Sellers Case for Tomorrow: A real sellers case is distant. The short-term sellers case starts with failure at 5492. Breakdown trades below support often fail and trap traders. These are high-risk, high-reward trades with a low win rate. I’d avoid chasing them unless a failed breakdown recovers. If you’re not comfortable with getting trapped, it’s better to pass on these setups. My core focus is failed breakdowns, where a breakdown looks likely but reverses. To play this, I need to see a bounce off 5492. Below this, shorts become more attractive, but cautiously. The failure of 5542 tomorrow could also set up a high-risk short, though I’d need to see a failed breakdown at 5537 and a recovery before shorting. Summary: After today’s 140-point rally, I’m stepping back to let the market discover its next move. If 5543-37 holds, the path to 5585-93 is clear, and sellers may make a stand there. If 5543-37 fails, we’ll likely dip toward deeper supports and reassess.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by ESMorg
2yr Yield - FEDFUNDS "Inversion"Over the past ~25yr, we've seen 3 instances of 2yr Yield dropping below the FEDFUNDS rate set by the Federal Reserve. All 3 instances coincide with Recessions. On this chart, you see the Yield Differential (Yellow), the SPX (Candles), along with the time of said "Rate Cycle Inversions" (Blue Bar Counts Below Price). As you can see, all 3 previous instances lead to significant corrections and/or volatility with notable downside. Not since the 2008 "GFC" have we seen an "inversion" of this magnitude. While correlation is NOT causation...It can be a "warning light" signaling 'Danger Ahead'. It is certainly forewarning us that the probabilities of a recession/down-turn are gaining momentum. Yes, people have been calling for Doom n Gloom, "Top is In", Recession imminent... for a couple years now. And I am not recommending you sell everything and hide under a rock. What I am recommending however, is that you reduce leverage if you have any, perhaps lock in some profits while you're "on top", and head into the coming days/weeks/months with eyes wide open, alert to potential quick corrections when this wild ride inevitably 'ends'. Each instance resulted in the "recent lows" being violated. If history rhymes this time, that could mean low 3k's incoming for SPX. COULD. Can your portfolio/strategy/mindset handle that kind of volatility/drawdown? Just some food for thought. As always, good luck, have fun, and practice solid risk management. Thank you for your time and consideration.
SP:SPX
by mrjones2020
S&P500 just needs to recover the 1D MA50.The S&P500 recovered yesterday a great deal of Friday's losses but still that wasn't enough to reclaim the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which was lost as the short-term Support level. As you realize, this is the key in order to resume and sustain the uptrend that started after the August 05 rebound near the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). The long-term pattern is a Channel Up and even before that since late 2022 and the bottom of the Inflation Crisis, the index only once corrected below the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level (the October 27 2023 Low). We mention that because Friday's decline stopped exactly on the 0.5 Fib. Every rise that followed until the next correction, reached at least +10.50% from the 0.5 Fib. As a result, once the index reclaims the 1D MA50, we will buy and set the next medium-term Target at 5950 (+10.50% from the 0.5 Fib). Notice also that yesterday's rebound was made exactly on the 1D RSI's Symmetrical Support, a level that initiated the December 19 2022 rebound. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by TradingShot
2024-09-09 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Green across the board. On the daily charts it’s mostly a small to normal bullish inside bar, so nothing to get excited about yet for the bulls. Tomorrow will be very important for the bears. If they fail to test the lows again or stop the pullback, many bears could give up and let the bulls test the highs again. In my weekly outlook I wrote that the 4h ema is currently the most important one and almost all markets respected it and closed below. Will look for early weakness and want to short for retest of the Friday lows. sp500 e-mini futures comment: Triangle is valid so far. Big red box is the open bear gap on the daily chart. 5500 would be a very good place for the bears to step in and make it resistance. I expect 5462 to be tested tomorrow and hopefully 5400 also. Odds favor the bears as long as we stay below 5540. current market cycle: trading range - if we drop below 5390, we are in a bear trend inside the big trading range. key levels: 5400 -5540 bull case: Bulls had a decent pullback today but it was still an inside bar. They need follow through and prices above 5540 to make more bears cover their shorts. Bulls had 3 good legs up today but bears were equally strong. Most of the move upwards was during the Globex session. Until bulls break strongly above 5500, they don’t have many arguments on their side. Invalidation is below 5460. bear case: Bears sold the rips today and kept the market mostly in balance around the open price 5462. They need to step in to keep the market below the current bear trend line and the 4h ema. Since we have formed a triangle, market is in balance between 5450-5500. The higher time frames support the bears for a second leg down. For tomorrow I expect the triangle to continue some more until we get a breakout and odds favor the bears. I think 5500 is a decent place to short with SL 5540 or 5560. Invalidation is above 5540. short term: Bearish as long as we stay below 5540. I want at least a retest of the lows 5400 but I hope for a bigger second leg down to 5000/5100. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01: Very much like my outlook in dax. Trading range on the daily chart and we are at the highs. We could make higher ones or not. Does not matter much. I expect 5000 to be hit again in 2024. current swing trade: Not yet. Will watch tomorrow’s price action and short on weakness. trade of the day: Longing 5450 was good all day and shorting above 5480. Looks way easier on the 15m tf than it was. Almost always is.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
S&P500: Rebounding on the 1D MA100.The S&P500 is recovering Friday's lost ground and turned neutral again on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 46.331, MACD = -24.550, ADX = 22.750). Even though it needs to overcome the Resistance pressure of the 1D MA50, this rebound gives a very positive note as it is being performed on the 1D MA100, which last time was a bounce point on April 19 2024. If the August 5th rebound was a HL of a Bullish Megaphone, then now the index is starting phase 2 of the new Bullish Wave, much like the 1D MA50 bounce of May 31st. We are bullish with TP = 6000, on the -0.618 Fibonacci level for a HH. See how our prior idea has worked out: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by InvestingScope
Build Confidence with Heikin-Ashi Candle Patternow to Trade Using Heikin Ashi Candles on the NDX Chart Heikin Ashi candles are a powerful tool for filtering out market noise and identifying trends more clearly than traditional candlesticks. By smoothing out price action, they allow traders to focus on the overall direction of the market, helping you make more informed trading decisions. Here’s a breakdown of how to use Heikin Ashi candles effectively, specifically on the NDX chart. 1. How to Read Heikin Ashi Candles The primary difference between Heikin Ashi and traditional candlesticks is in how they are calculated. Heikin Ashi uses a modified formula that incorporates the open, close, high, and low prices of the previous candle, which results in a smoother appearance. This smoothing effect allows traders to more easily spot trends: Bullish Trends: A series of green candles with no lower wicks typically indicates a strong uptrend. These are the times to consider long trades. Bearish Trends: A series of red candles with no upper wicks signals a strong downtrend. These are great opportunities for short positions. Consolidation: Mixed green and red candles with wicks on both ends often indicate consolidation or indecision in the market. The Heikin Ashi chart reduces the noise from minor price fluctuations, allowing you to focus on the trend itself rather than the short-term volatility. 2. Entry and Exit Points The beauty of Heikin Ashi candles lies in their ability to simplify entries and exits. Here’s how to use them: Entry Points: You want to enter a trade when a new trend is confirmed. For a long position, wait for the first few green Heikin Ashi candles after a period of red ones, signaling a reversal to the upside. For a short position, look for a sequence of red candles after a bullish period has ended. Exit Points: Exit your trade when you start seeing signs of reversal. For long trades, this would be the appearance of the first red Heikin Ashi candle after a series of green ones. For short trades, exit when the first green candle appears after a bearish sequence. Waiting for these clear signals helps avoid premature exits and ensures that you’re riding the trend for as long as possible. 3. Key Support and Resistance Levels Heikin Ashi works even better when combined with key support and resistance levels. On the NDX chart, identifying these levels provides context for your trades: Support Levels: If the price is approaching a key support level, and you start to see bullish Heikin Ashi candles, it’s a potential buy signal. Resistance Levels: If the price is approaching resistance and bearish Heikin Ashi candles begin forming, that could signal a good time to sell or short. Using Heikin Ashi in conjunction with these levels increases the probability of success by ensuring you are trading within important zones where price action tends to react. By mastering the use of Heikin Ashi candles and combining them with support and resistance, you can significantly improve your ability to spot and act on high-probability trading opportunities, especially on volatile instruments like NDX.
AMEX:SPYEducation
by Deno_Trading
#202437 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500 e-mini futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr sp500: Full bear mode. Market closes exactly at the 50% pullback price 5420 and we could see some sideways movement before more downside. Any pullback should stay below 5535. 0 Doubt in my mind that we see 5000 in 2024. Quote from last week: comment : Are we that much smarter than last Sunday after past week’s price action? I don’t think so. Still a lower high. Bulls closed the month extremely bullish but we are at previous resistance. Can’t be anything but neutral. Clear invalidation prices though. Above 5670 it’s bullish for ath retest 5721 or higher high. Below 5550 bears can generate momentum and convince bulls this was just a climactic retest of the highs and we go down again. Bulls still do have better arguments than the bears as long as they stay above the daily ema at 5565. comment : Strong bearish momentum is what we got with the bearish engulfing candle on Monday and market never looked back. 50% pullback is almost exactly at Friday’s close and if we get a pullback before 5200, it will be here. What are the chances? No idea, so every time that is so, it’s 50/50. Absolutely favoring the bears to continue down to 5200, with or without pullback. So if we get one, I will load on swing shorts. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 5000-5700 bull case: Bulls best chance for a pullback is right here at 5420 which is the 50% retracement and close to the weekly 20ema. I do not think after a 10%+ rally, that they will fight the bears to keep it above 5400. Market is erratic to say the least. Best bulls can hope for on Monday is sideways movement and stopping the bears from printing lower lows. Invalidation is below 5390. bear case: Bears stepped aside completely on the move up but came back big time on Monday. Why did they short it on Monday? That is never important and ever a question you should try to answer because you simply can not and will not know. Ever. That is the inherent beauty of the markets if they are big enough. Too many participants to determine such useless thoughts. The height of the bars tells you that there is very strong selling going on because people want out. Invalidation is above 5540. outlook last week: short term: Neutral again. No interest in bigger buying above 5600. Will scalp long if bulls make it clear that they want a new ath but mostly looking for signs of bear strength over the next week. Bulls closed above 5660 so it’s a buy signal going into next week but my outlook has not changed. I wait for bears to come around and will only scalp longs. → Last Sunday we traded 5661 and now we are at 5419. I let you decide the value of the given outlook last Sunday. short term: Full bear mode and yet we could get a 100+ point pullback. So shorting 5419 is not advisable as of now. Wait for bears to come around again. If bulls can get to 5500 again, look for a reversal and then you could load up on shorts. I do think it’s more likely that we will make high lows instead of lower lows and form a triangle. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01: Very much like my outlook in dax. Trading range on the daily chart and we are at the highs. We could make higher ones or not. Does not matter much. I expect 5000 to be hit again in 2024. current swing trade: None. chart update: Big ABC correction was good so far. Let’s see how low we can go.
CME_MINI:MES1!Short
by priceactiontds
Nasdaq already in a Bear Market Hello everyone, We are currently in a topping process and chances are July 10, 2024 was the top for the Nasdaq (NDX). I believe that we will fill the gap before entering the bear market. A confirmation of a lower high on NDX and a higher high on SPX would show a clear divergence confirming a market top. It's clear that the Russell (IWM) is not making new highs and showing a clear divergence from SPX and NDX making new highs suggesting this is the top. NDX may have already entered a bear market and will not be making new highs and this is simply an ABC corrective wave up before making new lows. TLDR: NDX ABC CORRECTIVE WAVE UP BEFORE NEW LOWS; NDX WILL MAKE LOWER HIGHS AND SPX NEW HIGHS WILL CONFIRM THIS A MARKET TOP
NASDAQ:NDX
by justaturboman44
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