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SPX (S&P 500 Index)

SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade 8-5 : The Shot Across The Bow.Watch this video. I'm going to try to keep this short and sweet. I've gotten a lot of comments about how my SPY Cycle Patterns have NOT been working out over the past 10+ days and I want to address that. The SPY Cycle Patterns are built on Gann & Fibonacci price structures/patterns. They reflect "Normal market psychology" and attempt to provide a guide as to what to expect within normal market rotation/trends. Nothing has been "normal" over the past 3+ weeks. It all started when Biden dropped out of the race for POTUS. Then, the real shot across the bow was the Bank Of Japan warning the rest of the world "hey, you may need to start aggressively defending your currencies against devaluation risks". If you really understand what that means, you'll understand the panic process that is playing out right now. But, I urge all of you to think about "what changed over the past 3 weeks". That is the question I keep asking myself. What changed is uncertainty (the Kamala-Crush) and the BOJ signaling foreign markets to prepare to defend the value of your currency against the US-Dollar. And I believe the panic-mode will subside very quickly as global asset prices drop. Falling prices mean stocks move into undervalued price territory. That also means smart traders BUY INTO this weakness for the longer-term ROI potential. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
FX:SPX500Long
by BradMatheny
4
SPX500 to continue in the downward move?US500 - 24H expiry Traded to the lowest level in 12 weeks. We have a 78.6% Fibonacci pullback level of 5136 from 4930 to 5680. There is no clear indication that the downward move is coming to an end. The sequence for trading is lower lows and highs. We look to set shorts at our bespoke indicator level (5273). We look to Sell at 5273 (stop at 5321) Our profit targets will be 5150 and 5136 Resistance: 5273 / 5338 / 5404 Support: 5175 / 5136 / 5091 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by OANDA
SPX: Where to Expect the Price Will Land?I've identified several targets, and most of them have been reached… except one last one. 1. 100% symmetrical extension of the red box —> Reached. 2. 100% symmetrical extension of the orange box —> Reached. 3. 100% symmetrical projection from A to B , then projected from C . D = the target price —> Reached. 4. D barely served as a support. The price went through it directly without any proper pullback. Therefore, I expect the price to double the original force to reach D’ . - Be aware that in this final stage, price movements can become unpredictable and illogical. Finding a meaningful stop loss can be difficult, and if you do, it’s usually broad and uncertain. - Thus, if you have a short position, hold it tightly towards the ultimate goal of D’ . At the same time, set up a solid defense line to protect your profits. - Personally, I’ll set my stop loss at D , the original target price and the previous high. If the price takes out the current low and forms another lower high, I’ll move my stop loss to the new lower high. Not Financial Advice The information contained in this article is not intended as, and should not be understood as financial advice. You should take independent financial advice from a professional who is aware of the facts and circumstances of your individual situation.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by stock_adelie
SPX: close to oversold momentumThe S&P 500 continued to be in a correction mood during the previous week. Friday`s surprising jobs data pushed the index to the lowest weekly level at 5.308. Still, the index is finishing the week at the level of 5.346. A weaker than anticipated jobs data, with Non-farm payrolls dropping to the level of 114K, from anticipated 175K and unemployment rate at 4.3% in July, from expected 4.1%, increased the fear among investors that the US economy is slowly slipping into a recession. It also increased their expectations that the Fed might cut rates in September. However, some analysts are not excluding seasonality effects in the posted jobs data, in which sense a market`s Friday's moves might be overreacted. The majority of stocks finished the week in red. The financial sector shares were traded lower on fears of a potential recession, while tech companies are currently perceived by the majority of investors as overestimated, taking into account current market levels. On the other hand, news hit the market that the market favorite, Nvidia, is under investigation by the US Justice department over a potential antitrust case. Intel shares had the worst week for the last 50 years, dropping down to the levels from 2013, after the company underestimated its earning potential, hence it will need to go through a tough process of restructuring, including layoffs of 15.000 employees. Intels shares dropped from the level of $30,64 reached on Thursday, to $20,79 traded on Friday, and has current market capitalization below $100 million. Another important news hit the market, was that Warren Buffet`s Berkshire Hathaway halved its position in Apple shares, through sale of around 50% of its previous position in this company. This information is derived from Berkshire Hathaway quarterly filings, but the company itself did not make any comments on such a move, so the reason for shorting position in AAPL is currently unknown. Another important aspect, which should not be neglected when it comes to the US market, is investors carry trade in Japanese Yen. Traditionally, changes in Japanese monetary policy had an impact on the US stock markets. During the previous week, the BoJ increased its reference interest rate by 25 basis points, which pushed the Yen 8% higher against the US Dollar. The carry trade is traditionally used by investors, where they take a debt in currency with lower interest rates and invest it in the US stock market in expectation of higher returns on their investments. Increased interest rates by BoJ and stronger Yen will certainly impact some currently open positions to be closed.
SP:SPX
by XBTFX
Money Market says that rate cut will be an urgent one (again)Just take a look on a rate cut expectations. In a short, the main technical graph is a difference (spread) between the nearest futures contract on FOMC interest rate (in this time Sept'24 ZQU2024) and the next one futures contract (in this time Oct'24 ZQV2024). It's clear that spread turned to negative in 2024, and heavily negative over the past several weeks. Historical back test analysis says that in all of such cases, FOMC is to cut interest rates immediately. The next scheduled FOMC meeting is September17-18. Will the market wait 6 more weeks? The right answer: NO. Rate cut will be an urgent one (unscheduled again).
CBOT:ZQ1!
by PandorraResearch
Hellena | SPX500 (4H): Long to resistance area 5407.Colleagues, the price has moved down a lot, but that means we have an opportunity to enter a long position more favorably. I still believe that price is still in an upward move of great impulse, and now there is a complex correction taking place. I expect an uptrend to begin around the 5172 area. The first expected target is in the 5407 area. Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by Hellena_Trade
1
Weekly Recap & Market Forecast $SPX (Aug 4th—> Aug 9th)Hello Investors! 🌟 This week saw volatility surge to levels not seen in over a year, with UST yields sliding to their lowest in months. Renewed concerns about wider conflict in the Middle East, coupled with fears of a rapidly decelerating US economy potentially leading to a recession, resulted in a forced recalibration in the markets. Let's delve into the key events that shaped this volatile week. 📈 **Market Overview:** Volatility spiked dramatically as geopolitical tensions and economic concerns dominated headlines. Renewed fears about a broader conflict in the Middle East and the possibility of a more severe recession in the US led to significant market movements. The FOMC held rates steady, disappointing those hoping for a rate cut. Chairman Powell's focus on employment risks suggested that the committee is nearing a time to reduce restrictiveness, but his message didn't align with the rapidly declining labor indicators. The week ended with a weak July employment report, following a disappointing ISM manufacturing report that spooked markets on Thursday, resulting in risk-off flows and a more dovish outlook towards the Jackson Hole Symposium. **Stock Market Performance:** - 📉 S&P 500: Down by 2% - 📉 Dow Jones: Down by 2.1% - 📉 NASDAQ: Down by 3.4% **Economic Indicators:** US Treasury yields dropped amid a slew of softer economic readings, with the yield curve steepening significantly: - **2-10 Year Spread:** Rose above -10 bps as futures markets and investment houses now foresee a 50 basis point Fed rate cut in September and potentially more than 100 bps in cuts by the end of 2024. - **JOLTS Job Openings:** Showed the ratio of job openings to unemployed workers has fallen back to pre-pandemic levels. - **ADP Employment Data:** Missed estimates, with annual pay growth slowing to its lowest level in years. - **Weekly Initial Jobless Claims:** Hit a 1-year high at 249K. - **ISM Manufacturing:** Missed estimates across the board, with the employment component registering its weakest reading since June 2020. - **July Employment Report:** Payrolls, hours worked, and wages all missed estimates, with unemployment rising to 4.3%, triggering the Sahm recession indicator for the first time since the pandemic. **Commodity Prices:** - **Crude Prices:** Rose early in the week due to escalating tensions between Israel and Iran but sold off later on rising recession fears. - **Gold Prices:** Climbed ~10% through Thursday due to a weaker US dollar but fell sharply after the Friday employment report. - **Bitcoin:** Also sold off sharply after the employment report. **Corporate News:** - **AI and Consumer Spending:** The themes of AI investment and weakening consumer spending dominated earnings reports. - **Nvidia:** Criticized by Elliott Management, suggesting AI is overhyped and in a bubble. - **Arm Holdings and Intel:** Reinforced concerns with Arm guiding lower and Intel announcing a fresh turnaround plan after poor results. - **Apple and Meta:** Reported better quarterly results, affirming significant capex growth for AI in the coming year. - **Consumer Sector:** - **McDonald’s:** Missed earnings and reported negative same-store sales, highlighting competition for value meals and deal-seeking consumers. - **Amazon:** Echoed similar sentiments about deal-seeking consumers, with capex increases tied to AI spending. - **Procter & Gamble:** Reported mixed results, noting market challenges expected to persist until the second half of next year, particularly in China.
TVC:DXY
by WallSt007
#202432 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500 e-mini futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Climactic selling below the possible bear channel. I do think a bounce is more likely than another strong bear day on Monday/Tuesday. Can go a bit lower to 5270 but we will touch that upper bear channel again or at least the daily 20ema. Bounce could go as high as 5500 again. Best case for bears would be to stay below 5450. Quote from last week: bear case: Bears see another minor pullback which could not even get to the daily 20ema at 5640. They want another strong leg down to 5300 to make it clear that the bull trend is dead. It’s not out of the picture that they get it. Probability wise, it’s more reasonable to expect the bull trend line to hold and at least go more sideways before another leg down. Issue with that is, that next week we have so many news that will have a big influence on longer term traders, that we will most likely go higher than 5500 or lower than 5400. For bears it’s a really bad short right at the big support. You can scalp short on strong momentum again but bears will likely wait for a pullback before they try again. My preferred path forward is the bear channel on my chart below. comment: Everything about this possible new bear trend I already wrote above, no new stuff to add here. current market cycle: Bull trap triggered on 2024-07-17. Probably forming a trading range first before we get to the bear trend. First guess for the range would be 5300 -5600. On the weekly or monthly chart, the selloff during July/August will be the first leg of this bear trend. key levels: 5400-5600 bull case: Bulls got a huge bounce last week for 169 points but the bears sold it violently again for a 269 point drop. Not stuff that happens during bull trends. Bulls are running for the exits and I do think market won’t get above 5600 anytime soon again. Bulls best hope now is to go sideways and turn the market neutral again. Invalidation is below 5300. bear case: Bears made it clear that this bull trend is over with another huge bull trap. Right now the channel down looks decent enough if we ignore Friday’s tail. Bears could force another drop to 5300 early next week but I think a bounce and more sideways is more reasonable to expect. I am very confident in loading up on shorts on the next pullback and hold until we hit 5000/5100, which will likely happen over the next weeks/months. Invalidation is above 5600. outlook last week: short term: Neutral. Both sides have valid arguments. Will make this dependent on earnings and will only do scalps for now. Market has to form a better channel if it wants a sustained down move. → Last Sunday we traded 5499 and now we are at 5376. Market started neutral and had big two sided trading, so outlook was good. short term: Full bear mode. Pullback is expected and I will load up on shorts. This will go much lower in 2024. medium-long term: 5300 over the next weeks (will likely happen in August). Afterwards another pullback before we go down to 5000/5100 in 2024. current swing trade: Out of all shorts which I had since 5700. Will load again on anything above 5500. chart update: Bull trend line now clearly broken but bear channel stays for now. Removed bear gap #2. Whenever you see many lines in an area on my charts, it means that much happened there and it’s an area of importance. Expect pullbacks/bounces in those areas. Adjusted the 50% pb from 5601 to the recent low 5331.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
7
U.S. Stocks' foreseeable goalsThe most important index for the reflection of the American Stocks market is the SP:SPX , so let's start with it. Unfortunately, now the chart of this index is not rich in models, so the current logic of movements in our opinion is described by the EXP model from July 30 on the daily timeframe👇 As long as the price is below the 4-point level (5 390.95), the target levels are 100% (5 125.93) and 200% (4 873.94). In case the price returns above the level of 4 point and goes beyond the trend line, there will be a second attempt to reach the target resistance level of 5 582.31 - the formally reached target of the impulse of August 1. It is necessary to mention that this pattern, despite being on the daily timeframe - is weak. In addition, let's look at a chart of the NASDAQ:NDX - this index includes the 100 largest non-financial companies traded on the Nasdaq exchange, primarily technology stocks. Consideration of this index is additionally interesting because most institutional managers consider BINANCE:BTCUSDT to be in the technology sector, so NASDAQ:NDX and BINANCE:BTCUSDT is often correlated. First, let's look at the AMEXP model that formed in mid-March 2023 on the weekly timeframe and described the entire uptrend within the 2023-2024 period on this index👇 In this model we are primarily interested in the level of HP (18 289.68), currently acting as an extreme support on the weekly timeframe, and if the price can consolidate under this level, the next support will be the level of 100% (15 891.73). More locally, on the daily timeframe, the current movement is described by the EXP model from July 24, where the price has already reached the first target level of 100% (18 355.48)👇 It is very interesting that now on NASDAQ:NDX the price has settled in the zone of 18 355.45-18 289.68 formed by 100% and HP levels and if we don't see a rebound soon and the price tries to consolidate under this zone, the next target level will be 17 296.42. By the way, we do not exclude that the movement towards 17,296.42 will be accompanied by an attempt of CME:BTC1! to close the CME GEP at the level of $57,805👇
NASDAQ:NDXShort
by TSFC
Bitcoin's Next Two Years: Accumulation to Parabolic PeakBitcoin Technical Analysis: Upcoming Two-Year Cycle Market Structure Overview Current market structure analysis indicates that Bitcoin is in the final stages of its accumulation phase before a mini bull run. Key market structure zones and projected price targets for the next two years are outlined below: Accumulation Phase Current Support Zone: $57,405 - $61,302 Bitcoin is consolidating within this range, indicating strong accumulation by long-term holders and institutional investors. Mini Bull Run Projected Highest High: $91,236 As Bitcoin breaks out of the accumulation phase, we anticipate a mini bull run with the highest high reaching approximately $91,236 . This phase is expected to be driven by increasing demand and positive market sentiment. Correction Cycle Main Support Zone: $47,620 Following the mini bull run, a slow correction cycle is projected to commence, bringing Bitcoin down to a main bottom support around $47,620 . This correction is seen as a healthy pullback, setting the stage for the next bullish phase. Parabolic Bullish Cycle First Target: $139,130 From the $47,620 support zone, Bitcoin is expected to begin a parabolic bullish cycle. The first significant target in this cycle is around $139,130 , marking a substantial price appreciation. Parabolic Cycle Correction and New Targets Maximum Target: $236,000 Following the initial parabolic run, Bitcoin is projected to undergo a correction before ascending to new heights. The absolute maximum target for this 3.5-year cycle is estimated to be around $236,000. Macroeconomic Factors Influencing Bitcoin Japanese Index Decline: The recent rapid decline in the Japanese index has introduced uncertainty in the Asian markets. Investors are increasingly looking for safe-haven assets, which could boost demand for Bitcoin. US Market Sentiment: With the US markets closing in the red on Friday and gold prices reaching an all-time high, there is a growing shift towards alternative investments like Bitcoin. Japanese Yen Weakness: The continued decline of the Japanese yen is anticipated to accelerate Bitcoin’s mini bull cycle correction. This macroeconomic trend is likely to contribute to the expected decline to the $47,000 support zone before the parabolic bullish phase. Conclusion Bitcoin's market structure suggests a promising outlook for the next two years, characterized by significant price movements and opportunities for strategic investments. The interplay between macroeconomic factors and Bitcoin’s inherent market cycles underscores the importance of staying informed and agile in response to evolving market conditions.
Long
by wikitrades
4
Combined US Equities - D-Day +1on 31 July, heads up given about D-day. That was based simply of a few compelling technical factors observed. Outcome was that there was a blow out rally, followed by an awesome Dark Cloud Cover and then a confirmation bearish candle that gapped down and tanked the week to a low. The spike in volatility was just so awesome and it caught many off guard, unfortunately. Technical indicators were previously mentioned to be bearish already and now it is very evidently so. Projecting further using supports and TD Sequential, it is also evident that by breaking below the support that closes the gap too was so critical... it broke the TDST support as well. This means that the TD Sequential trend is now bearish, with an expected one bearish week to go. So all together... a significant technical breakdown. Some bounce expected, but week ahead looks bearish. Projected target marked (red ellipse). Take care!
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Auguraltrader
VIX $2.9 Trillion wiped on recession fears. Is the worst over?The much lower than expected Nonfarm Payrolls today (114k against a 176k forecast) amplified the global recession concerns and wiped out $2.9 trillion from the stock markets, making it the worst day since the 2020 COVID crash. With Nasdaq down almost -12% from its recent peak, investors are more or less convinced of the necessity of a September Fed Rate cut in order to restore confidence in the market. But is the worst over yet? Well, lets take a look at the Volatility Index (VIX), which last time we analyzed it (April 16, see chart below), helped us take the most optimal buy entry on the stock market as it got rejected right at the top of its 10-month Channel Down: Today VIX was up almost +90% from its daily Low, displaying enormous market volatility. It is useful in times like these to look at the multi-year price action in order to keep an objective technical perspective. As this 1W chart shows, a VIX price this high is a rare feat since the 2008 Housing Crisis. In fact the break-out above the Channel Down resembles the Highs of December 24 2018 and October 13 2014 (blue circles). Those that been the lowest levels of alerts on the VIX scale, with the medium ones being the orange circles and the worst ones being the red (only happened twice: October 20 2008 and the COVID crash of March 16 2020). At the same time, the 1W RSI just broke above the 70.00 Overbought barrier, which has only happened another 6 times since the 2008 Housing Crisis. It is easy to understand as a result, that this VIX spike has more chances to be corrected in the coming weeks than ending up in a larger stock market correction. On our current chart, the stock market is represented by the S&P500 (black trend-line). As you can see, a strong recovery (green Channel Up) followed after the blue VIX peaks. In the event however that this turns out to be an orange VIX peak next week, the S&P500 is expected to start recovering within 4-6 weeks. Which case do you think it will be? ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:VIX
by TradingShot
3
🔜 20+ Year Treasury Bond Market. Perhaps This Is The End US stocks surprised much of Wall Street this year with a strong run that defied decades-high interest rates and recession calls. The rally was fueled by slower inflation and hype over artificial intelligence. But more recently, the Federal Reserve's unwavering higher-for-longer rate stance and a deepening bond-market rout have had a sobering effect on equities sentiment, with the S&P 500 index halving its year-to-date gains. Indeed stock valuations are looking increasingly stretched, raising the risk of a correction. One such indicator in particular is flashing RED - the relative valuation of stocks versus the debt market. SPX / ICE BofA Corporate Total Return Index In August this year, the S&P 500 CBOE:SPX climbed to levels last seen during the peak of dot-com boom, relative to an index that tracks the US corporate bond market. The gauge is still holding near those highs, despite the recent pullback in equities. The metric last surged this high in the spring of 2000 — and that was followed by a multi-year meltdown in stocks that saw the S&P 500 crash 50% between March 2000 and October 2002. SPX 50% Decline During 2000-2002 Another indicator that shows the richness of stocks relative to debt is the so-called equity risk premium — or the extra return on shares over government debt, which is considered a safer form of investment. The metric has plunged this year lows unseen in decades, indicating elevated stock valuations. "Equity risk premium is near its worst ever level going back to 1927. In the 6 instances this has occurred, the markets saw a major correction & recession/depression - 1929, 1969, 99/00, 07, 18/19, present," research firm MacroEdge said in a recent post on X (ex-Twitter). The so-called equity risk premium (earnings yield minus bond yield) recently fell to a new cycle low and remains well below historical averages. In other words, the stock market has become more expensive relative to the bond market despite the recent pullback. Meanwhile the main graph (quarterly Div-adjusted chart for NASDAQ:TLT 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF) illustrates perhaps right there could the end for U.S. Govt Bond Market decline, with Double top as a further projected/ targeted upside price action. Will all of that bring U.S. stock market to 50% decline like in early 2000s!? Time will show!
NASDAQ:TLT
by PandorraResearch
40
S&P weekly consolidation ongoing; uptrend still intactLast week began with a bull rally that was very short-lived. Sellers stepped in, driving the price down through the last consolidation (and potential support) zone. By the end of the week, the market experienced a 180-degree shift in sentiment, with Friday closing with a bullish inside candle. Currently, we have the following disposition: 1. The price is in an uptrend on the weekly chart, indicating that long-term buyers still maintain control. 2. The daily chart shows a downtrend, but so far, sellers have only managed to retrace 50% of the previous green wave. 3. There is an unfilled gap from Wednesday, the 24th. If bulls can fill this gap this week, it will demonstrate their strength. From a fundamental perspective, there was no significant negative news. On the contrary, the inflation data was quite positive, and earnings were mostly decent, except for TSLA. This suggests that the current downtrend is just a controlled weekly consolidation. Therefore, we should look for a weekly higher low to enter LONG positions to capitalize on the continuation of the weekly uptrend. A lot will depend on the Big Tech earnings reports coming out this week, but so far, there is no reason to expect negative surprises. Disclaimer I don't give trading or investing advice, just sharing my thoughts.
AMEX:SPY
by hermes_trisme
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade 8-1 : Base Rally After Gap FillToday's BaseRally301 pattern is certainly giving us a run for our money. I expected a bit of a pullback in early trading today, but I didn't expect the SPY price to fall far enough to CLOSE THE GAP. This is a great example of staying agile and running with what price gives us. Now, as we have closed the GAP and still trying to find a base/support level to mount another rally attempt. Please watch this to learn how important the next 4 hours are related to the future rally trend for the SPY. Today should be very interesting if the SPY Cycle Pattern plays out as I expect. This video also includes Gold, Bitcoin, and the QQQ. Get Some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
2
Weekly Update: At the very least...ITS TIME TO RAISE CASH !!!!Since I last updated you on the overall markets, price has retreated lower. (Click Here for the last Market Update) The Nasdaq futures contract (NQ) has declined a total of 10.76% whereas the SP500 futures contract (ES) has only declined 5.05% from their respective all-time highs earlier in July. Does the Divergence between the weakness of the NQ, and relative strength of the ES, tell us anything? As I take in volumes of information to access the current pattern I find myself overwhelmed with the musings of more experienced market participants. A reasonable explanation would be the Nasdaq outperformed on the way up and is now underperforming on the way down. A sign possibly it got ahead of itself? Sure. However, in my experience, the answer is more nuanced to advancing and declining markets than simply the Nasdaq outperformed earlier and is now underperforming. I find Bob Farrell’s “Market Rules to Remember” always a good list to consult in the most interesting of market times. In his top 10 list of market rules, I find the market somewhere between rule #2 and rule#4 rather germane to the current price action. Rule #2 states : “Excesses in one direction will lead to an opposite excess in the other direction.” Whereas Rule #4 states : “Exponential rapidly rising or falling markets usually go further than you think, but they do not correct by going sideways.” Have we achieved the one directional excess that will lead to excesses in the opposite direction yet? Does this rapidly rising market have further to go? These are questions that are impossible to answer right now as the current price action in the NQ and ES tends to favor both rules. To further explain with respect to Rule#2…as long as we remain above the April lows in both the NQ and the ES, we retain the ability to continue to subdivide higher . Right now, those April lows seem like worlds away from the current consciousness of traders. However, from an Elliottitions’ perspective, the upside pattern is not damaged in the least, as long as we remain above those April lows. But to say the advancing price action has not been damaged in the least is somewhat an oversimplification of the technical structure of the recent price action as notated in RN Elliott’s original theories. Elliott Wave Theory simply put states that a trend will persist in 5 distinct waves, and counter trend price action will retrace the trend but only in 3 distinct waves. This forms the basis of trends, or (Motive Waves) and counter trends, or (Corrective Waves). The exception to this primary tenant of EWT is, wait for it …… (A diagonal Pattern) . Anyone can use the Google Machine for a definition of what a diagonal is within the construct of Elliott Wave Theory. However, I will add that the sentiment of market participants usually is that of tepid confidence. Traders not entirely sure of their actions....FOMO. Nonetheless, using this basic premise, this is how I interpret the current market price action. Disclaimer: I am not a fortune teller. I do not levitate off the ground, nor do I smoke a pipe like a wizard. Elliott Wave Theory is a construct to provide simply a higher probability forecast of future price action...NOT A GUARANTEE. Many times, with more price action and the benefit of hindsight, patterns can be interpreted as something other than what was originally perceived. The current price action in the NQ can persist to new all-time highs right now. However, to do so, would ONLY be accomplished as an Ending Diagonal for wave 5 of larger V of even larger wave (III). This sort of price action, if it subdivides to it’s ultimate conclusion, would eventually result in a market crash of sorts. Ending Diagonal patterns ideally return to their point of origination in relatively short order. The origination point of this potential pattern is the April lows. That would be considered a pretty hefty decline if that were to play out and certainly scare those who remain permanently bullish by virtue of a lack of imagination. The ES, although not nearly as precarious as the NQ pattern is, would undoubtedly follow suit to a large extent. Therefore, I will conclude by humbly offering some unsolicited advice. The professionals, the market media and your day trader buddy…all will chime in when it’s time to buy. Its crickets…when it’s time to sell. You, nor I, have ever turned on CNBC to hear…”Folks it’s time to sell stocks”. In my last update on the markets, I ended with this statement... these decisions are only yours alone to make. I will not tell you to sell now. However, I’ll tell you this. It is time to raise some cash. Could the market make new highs? Sure. But have you honestly done a risk/reward scenario for these potential incremental new highs? Take that suggestion for what it may be worth. Best to all, Chris
SP:SPX
by maikisch
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade 8-1 : BaseRally301 Pattern TodayThis video is to help you understand the continued initiation of the Vortex Rally phase and how today's BaseRally301 pattern will play out. Within this video, I cover the SPY, QQQ, Gold, & BTCUSD. This should really give you a solid primer as to what I expect the SPY to do today and why I'm waiting for the first 30 to 60+ minutes to play out before looking for any trades. I expect the SPY to move in a consolidated downward price trend for the first 30-60+ min, then start to move into the rally phase. Plan your trade. Remember to use the allocation model I shared with everyone yesterday. A. Pick your Entry Price B. Pick your Stop Level C. The difference between your Entry Price and Stop Level becomes your RISK FACTOR (say $2). D. Pick how much you are willing to RISK AMOUNT on this trade (say $500) E. Divide Your Risk Amount (D) by the Risk Factor (C): 500 / 2 = 250. You are only allowed to trade 250 shares (or less) to maintain your risk containment levels. It is pretty simple once you get used to this structure. Get Some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
2
S&P500 Huge rebound on former 2year ChannelUp! New Highs coming!The S&P500 index (SPX) reached and held last week the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the former 2-year Channel Up pattern that was the vessel of market recovery from the 2022 inflation crisis. The results of holding this line have been immediate as this week is so far deep into green and is about to recover all losses sustained from the previous 1W candle. At the same time it is a Higher Low on the (dashed) 9-month Channel Up. Those two developments open the way for a new mega-bullish pattern that has the Support of its former one. As long as the 1D MA100 (red trend-line) remains intact, we still look towards a new Higher High, targeting 6200, which may be a modest Target since it is quite below the +28.56% mark, which is the rise that the previous Bullish Leg had. So far all major long-term rallies since the October 2022 bottom have been around +30%. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by TradingShot
2