S&P 500 - BULLISH DOUBLE BOTTOMHello Traders !
The S&P 500 Index formed a double bottom pattern.
Currently, The neckline is broken !
So, I expect a new bullish move📈
______________
TARGET: 5563.50🎯
SPX (S&P 500 Index)
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade 8-1 : BaseRally301 Pattern TodayThis video is to help you understand the continued initiation of the Vortex Rally phase and how today's BaseRally301 pattern will play out.
Within this video, I cover the SPY, QQQ, Gold, & BTCUSD.
This should really give you a solid primer as to what I expect the SPY to do today and why I'm waiting for the first 30 to 60+ minutes to play out before looking for any trades.
I expect the SPY to move in a consolidated downward price trend for the first 30-60+ min, then start to move into the rally phase.
Plan your trade. Remember to use the allocation model I shared with everyone yesterday.
A. Pick your Entry Price
B. Pick your Stop Level
C. The difference between your Entry Price and Stop Level becomes your RISK FACTOR (say $2).
D. Pick how much you are willing to RISK AMOUNT on this trade (say $500)
E. Divide Your Risk Amount (D) by the Risk Factor (C): 500 / 2 = 250. You are only allowed to trade 250 shares (or less) to maintain your risk containment levels.
It is pretty simple once you get used to this structure.
Get Some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
S&P500 Huge rebound on former 2year ChannelUp! New Highs coming!The S&P500 index (SPX) reached and held last week the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the former 2-year Channel Up pattern that was the vessel of market recovery from the 2022 inflation crisis.
The results of holding this line have been immediate as this week is so far deep into green and is about to recover all losses sustained from the previous 1W candle. At the same time it is a Higher Low on the (dashed) 9-month Channel Up. Those two developments open the way for a new mega-bullish pattern that has the Support of its former one.
As long as the 1D MA100 (red trend-line) remains intact, we still look towards a new Higher High, targeting 6200, which may be a modest Target since it is quite below the +28.56% mark, which is the rise that the previous Bullish Leg had. So far all major long-term rallies since the October 2022 bottom have been around +30%.
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2024-07-31 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: The bull trend line around 5430 held and market bounced for 150 points since yesterday. The 50% pb from this recent sell off was 5578 and today’s high was 5588, while closing at 5556. Tells you that market is respecting the 50% pb and could not close the month above it, which is good for the bears. Where does this leave us going into August? Absolutely neutral imo. Bear trend line is broken and the big bull trend line held. Bulls want a retest of 5700 and bears to stay below the 50% pb and sell off again, because at this angle they have a decent channel downwards to 5000. My channel on the chart was drawn last week.
current market cycle: Trading range until 5500 is clearly broken.
key levels: 5400 - 5600
bull case: Bulls had the expected bounce and yesterday I said the selloff after hours was most likely a bear trap. So it was and bull want to keep the momentum going and closing the bear gap to 5640 next. If they can close that, they will most likely also retest 5700 but as of now, they could not close above 5600 and are under the 50% pullback. Had they closed the month above 5600, I would be much more bullish going into August.
Invalidation is below 5540.
bear case: Bears kept it below the 50% pb, around the daily ema and technically bulls just got a breakout retest of 5560. The selling into today’s close was strong enough to not expect an easy melt up through 5600 tomorrow. Bears also have going for them, that with this lower high, they have formed a proper channel, which could lead us to 5000 over the next months. 5570ish is the current price and the worst place to trade. Can go either direction and I will wait for strong momentum to either side.
Invalidation is above 5600.
short term: Neutral af.
medium-long term: Bearish. We will see 5000 over the next weeks again and 4600 over the next 12 months. Will update this time and price wise over the weekend but I expect to at least see 5000 over the next months in 2024. —unchanged
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade 7-31 Mid-Day Update - POP May IntensifyPlease watch this video to learn how the already big rally phase (starting the Vortex Rally) may intensify over the next 10+ days.
By my analysis, the SPY could rally to levels above $565 before mid August.
But, the SPY Cycle Patterns still show a moderate price pullback is in order before we move onto any extended rally phase.
I've also made some big changes to the new TradingView tools I've been working on. Very happy with the current mods/adjustments.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade 7-31 Mid-Morning Update - POP DelayedIt looks like the POP pattern was suppressed by yesterday's Israel attack - pushing price downward and really creating a bullish launchpad type fo reversion move.
The Nasdaq is up over 3%
The SPY is up over 1.6%
These are HUGE upward price moves.
In my opinion, this is the POP pattern showing up a day late (disrupted by the Israel/Lebanon attacks yesterday).
In this video I highlight what I think is still a potential for a bit more upward price trending. We will reach a peak today and likely stall downward a bit later in the day.
But for now, this reversion rally seems very strong.
Get some
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade 7-31 Morning UpdateThis video highlights the morning Gap and what to expect before price settles and attempts to move above $553-555 today.
I fully expect the Vortex Rally to move price higher over the next few weeks/months. But, today is going o be critical to see if Price can attempt to move above the recent resistance area near $554-555. If price moves up to that level and rejects (downward) - I would still consider that a positive price reaction to the recent selling pressure.
So, today and tomorrow are going to be very important related to Fibonacci Price Theory and watch to see if price CAN attempt to move to new Unique/Ultimate highs.
So far, the Gap higher (to a new Unique high) is a very positive move.
One of my friends wrote to me this morning saying his "lotto" call options (purchased yesterday near the close) resulted in a 1400% gain this morning. Love this.
I love seeing traders use my tools/research and attempt to better their skills.
That is a big Lotto Win for cheap $9 call options on the SPY.
Let's see how it plays out today.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 7-31 : Counter-Trend Base RallyFirst, I got up a bit late this morning. Been pushing really hard over the last few weeks. I guess I needed the rest.
Next, this video is very important for ALL TRADERS.
I want all of you to learn the proper skills to manage your trading, risk controls, and emotional aspects of trading, and really learn the skills to MAKE YOUR OWN DECISIONS.
I know you may never fully master these, but knowing how to use these tools and how they can help you is very important.
I'll keep this short, we are likely going to see a rally to to $553-555 in the SPY, then watch the price roll downward later in the day.
Go Get Some
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
SPX Is Very Bearish! Short!
Please, check our technical outlook for SPX.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is approaching a significant resistance area 5,464.03.
Due to the fact that we see a positive bearish reaction from the underlined area, I strongly believe that sellers will manage to push the price all the way down to 5,282.36 level.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Combined US equities - D-DayYesterday, the Gap reopened, after an early week stall on Monday. These last two candles have top wicks suggesting selling pressure to keep the gap open. Thing is, I would have preferred to see a more solid down candle.
Meanwhile, this indecision is biased to the downside from indicators and longer term chart (week) point of view. The MACD is in bearish territory and the VolDiv is bearish too. Price has been supported and one of two things will happen:
1. More probable is the volatility spike and markets breakdown fast as they are overdue; or
2. the less likely sudden extreme bullish rally, at the risk of being a blow out top or near term double top for a bigger bolder downside drop in a few months.
Given these, and other supporting charts for a probable downside, I would watch the support breaks very closely.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade 7-30 - Pop Pattern Disrupted By NewsToday's POP pattern, which I suggested would present a very solid Bullish trending opportunity, was disrupted by news of Israeli attacks in Lebanon.
I truly believe today would have resulted in a very strong reversion rally had the markets no been disrupted by the new conflict.
Still, we need to play the markets and not rely exclusively on my SPY Cycle Patterns.
In this video, you'll see me go over a number of symbols (SPY/QQQ/Gold/Crude Oil, others) and show you some of the new tools I've been working on to help traders stay on the right side of market trends.
I still expect the Vortex Rally to take place over the next 30 to 90+ days - building strength as the US markets trend upward.
I believe the conflicts and global economic uncertainty will drive capital into US-Dollar-based assets over the next 12+ months - creating the Vortex Rally.
This will also drive hedge instruments higher.
As the US markets shift into the preferred safe-haven asset class (again), we should have nearly unlimited opportunities for great trades over the next 12 to 24+ months.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
S&P 500 - BEARISH MOVEHi Traders !
The S&P 500 Index Failed to create a new higher high !
The support line is broken !
So, I Expect a bearish move📉
_____________
TARGET: 5355.00🎯
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 7-30 : Bullish POP PatternToday's POP Pattern in Carryover mode suggests the SPY will attempt to move above $550-551 on moderate bullish trending.
I believe the way the patterns are set up, the price will attempt a moderate rally with the POP pattern. Then, move into mild consolidation (downward trending) on tomorrow's Counter-trend Bottom-Rally Start. Then, move into a moderately explosive upward/bullish phase on Thursday/Friday with the BaseRally301 and Breakaway patterns.
Overall, I see the SPY/QQQ moving into the new Vortex Rally Phase over the next 30 to 90+ days, which will present incredible opportunities for skilled traders.
I'm only trying to predict one week at a time. The last time I did this, I tried to predict three weeks into the future. The more time I include (further out into the future), the more likely my predictions will be incorrect regarding price location/range.
So, we will keep this simple - going one week at a time.
I hope you guys are benefiting from all my hard work. It took me over 20 years to learn enough to figure out these SPY Cycle Patterns. You guys are getting a taste of them for Free on TradingView.
What do you think so far?
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
SPX 500's Technical Retreat: Support at 5,290?US SPX 500 – technical overview
Longer-term technical studies are in the process of unwinding from overbought levels. There is now room for a pullback towards previous resistance turned support in the form of the previous record high from April around 5,290 before the market considers a run to another record high.
R2 5679 – 16 July/Record high – Strong
R1 5593 – 23 July high – Medium
S1 5398 – 25 July low – Medium
S2 5352 – 23 May high – Strong
US SPX 500 – fundamental overview
Though we have seen a healthy adjustment of investor expectations towards the amount of rate cuts in 2024, the market still hopes policy will end up erring more towards the investor friendly, accommodative side of things. This bet has kept stocks well bid into dips and consistently pushing record highs. Still, if there is a sense the Fed will need to be more sensitive towards erring on the side of higher rates, it could invite a much bigger disruption to stocks.
Exclusive FX research from LMAX Group Market Strategist, Joel Kruger
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade EOD 7-29 - Prepare For Tomorrow's POPThis is an end-of-day recap of the Flat/Down SPY Cycle Pattern - which played out perfectly.
As I warned, this type of pattern suggests the SPY will stay in a consolidated range and attempt to drift downward throughout the day. This type of pattern presents a very difficult day for day traders.
Tomorrow's POP pattern should be very exciting. I'm reading the POP pattern as a Carryover of trending.
Because of this, I'm suggesting tomorrow's POP pattern may present a strong rally trend - possibly attempting to move above $554-555 on the SPY.
If my research is accurate, tomorrow should be a great day for day traders and present some real opportunities for profits.
Hope you are all enjoying my work. Let me know what you think.
Get Some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Update 7/29 - Flat/Down PatternThis mid-day update highlights the SPY Cycle Pattern prediction and how to trade short-price swings as price contests into a sideways channel.
The Flat/Down pattern is usually a congesting type of price pattern. Price trends are smaller and traders need to learn to adjust to taking quick profits.
These types of days are sometimes difficult for traders who are used to swinging for the fences. Days like today mean "grab profits quickly and try to eliminate risks within the first 10-20 minutes."
I highlight this method in the video showing my new MENT Pressure System setups.
Pay attention to how the SPY Cycle Patterns seem to be aligning again (after the Kamala-Crush). this is good to see, as we want the SPY/QQQ price to move back in alignment with the SPY Cycle Patterns after the recent disruption.
Looks like we may slide into a sideways price trend throughout the rest of the day.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
S&P500 Potential UpsidesHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring US500 for a buying opportunity around 5350 zone, S&P500 is trading in an uptrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 5350 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 7-29 : Flat/Down PatternPrepare for a fairly mild day today with the Flat/Down SPY Cycle Pattern.
This pattern suggests the SPY will struggle to find any real trend and will stay relatively flat overall with a moderate downward price trend.
Watch this video. We are in the early stages of a broader Vortex Rally phase - but price will continue to roll higher and lower through cycles. Today's Flat/Down pattern is not a big concern for me. I'm more focused on the broader Vortex Rally phase and how that will continue throughout 2024 and into 2025.
If my research is correct, we are shifting into a new broad price trend that could be explosive. The greatest opportunity of your life is sitting right before you.
If you have not been paying attention to my research/work/tools - maybe it's time to start paying closer attention to what I'm saying.
The next 3~5+ years should be filled with incredible opportunities for skilled traders.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
Occam's RazorEverything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler.
That is a famous quote, sometimes written under "inspirational photos" of influencers on social media. It is attributed to Albert Einstein, he however expressed something more rough than that.
Einstein quoted: It can scarcely be denied that the supreme goal of all theory is to make the irreducible basic elements as simple and as few as possible without having to surrender the adequate representation of a single datum of experience.
Even though he was not a philosopher, he adopted what William of Ockham proposed hundreds of years ago. He believed that an explanation must come from the simplest set of elements. Occam's Razor is what defeats "Last Thursdayism" aka "the Omphalos hypothesis". Simplicity is stronger than complexity.
But enough of history and philosophy, I hear you say. This is an investment platform after all, we are tired of reading about theories.
The thing is, if you don't think before you buy, you end up in a loophole.
In an investment strategy that has no way in, and no way out.
From my mere two years of stock market analysis, I have one rough quote for your social media pics:
Clear your mind. Choose wisely your favorite ship, and pick your favorite destination.
Now sit back and relax. The time will come when the wind blows fair to your ways.
It is not exactly doric, but it will do for now.
So basically, there are two things you must decide and believe in. The type and the timing of investment. Contrary to what some may say to you, you actually need both.
If you aren't selective of your investment, then you better hope to break-even to inflation.
If you don't let the times ripe, then you don't do anything more, or less than a hodler. (or similarly an inflation mitigator)
The point I am trying to make is simple.
That investing must be simple...
...and charting must be simple. Hence Renko charts!
Some time ago, I discovered the interesting properties of these charts.
They "normalize" growth, from violent spikes to perfect pyramid fractals.
To an untrained investor, this chart is an oversimplification.
How on earth Minecraft is better than reality?
Answer: Legibility and Indicators
Legibility: The violent nature of stocks is tamed from this chart type. This was the original intention of the Japanese inventors.
Indicators: The unknown charisma of these charts is their magic behavior with indicators. They give powerful new ways to analyze prices.
So how and why do Renko charts surpass candlestick charts?
In classic (timed) charts like candle, the baseline is time. Rapid price breakouts and deadly black swans may come incredibly quick. Since most indicators depend on some amount of lookback (the length of a Moving Average for example), they under-weigh rapid events like black swans, and over-weigh slow, and perhaps, insignificant price movements.
In timeless charts like Renko, no detail is hidden. The appropriate amount of importance is shown to each point of price history.
With candles, momentum is time-based. With cubes, momentum is price-based.
Renko charts, even though are a big simplification, provide an entirely new visualization of charts, and all of that without exotic coding. Your indicators still work.
DXY shows subtle but important differences in bull-market analysis. More advanced indicators show this even clearer.
As a theoretical experiment, a trader waited for two candles of confirmation after KST broke down.
NVDA paired with Renko reveals its true face. Divergences hidden in plain sight.
And all of that with the most rudimentary of tools, MACD.
The point Renko tries to make is simple. A stable growth is a decisive growth. Renko punishes stocks that begin to exhibit backtests / retreats in price. By simplifying technical analysis and price data, the deep ocean becomes a child's pool. Accessible by everyone.
The point Grigori try to make is simple. That trading should not be considered to be astrophysics, because it clearly is not astrophysics. We are not Einsteins (some may be), but the majority are not (including me). We, as humans, need clear and simple arguments and data in order to make robust conclusions.
Final thought: The investor's mind must keep clear of chaotic charts and concentrate on picking the right ship, at the right time. Select beforehand your ultimate target. The earth is round. If you keep sailing without stopping, the time will certainly come, when you will reach ground-zero.
Tread lightly, for this is simple ground.
Father Grigori.
P.S. I will keep this idea updated with any interesting Renko vs Candle charts I discover.
SPX: a rate cut in (not) expectedThe oversold sentiment was holding the stock market during the previous week, however, the soft PCE report on Friday, brought back some optimism. The investors continue to be focused on the economic cycle movement, where small-cap indices gained during the week, while tech heavy indices were on a losing track. In this sense, Russell 2000 gained 1.67% during the week. The S&P 500 started the week around the level of 5.566, however, the lowest weekly level reached was 5.400. The index is ending the week at the level of 5.459. The industrial and materials stocks are currently in focus of investors, in anticipation that the environment of decreased interest rates would help these businesses in the future period. The tech companies included in the S&P 500 gained around 1% during the week.
The main macro driver of the stock market during the previous week was the PCE Index posted on Friday. The headline PCE was increased by 0.1% on a monthly basis and 2.5% y/y which was fully in line with the market estimates. The analysts are currently anticipating more rate cuts during this year, as inflation is evidently slowing down. The FOMC meeting is scheduled for the week ahead, where some further investors re-positioning might be expected, based on Fed`s rhetoric in an after-the-meeting conference.
Weekly Recap & Market Forecast $SPX (July 28th —>Aug 2nd)**DIYWallST Weekly Recap & Market Forecast**
---
Hello Investors! 🌟 This week was marked by significant economic and political developments, driving volatility in global stock markets. Let’s dive into the key events that shaped the financial landscape. 📈
**Market Overview:**
The week began with a surprise rate cut by China’s PBOC, but this was quickly overshadowed by President Biden’s announcement that he was dropping out of the race. The Democratic Party swiftly rallied around Kamala Harris, with endorsements pouring in from state governors and, ultimately, the Obamas. By the end of the week, Harris appeared to have secured the nomination. The political developments contributed to a 'Trump-trade' sentiment, with small-cap value stocks continuing to outperform mega-cap technology shares. The cool June CPI and subsequent soft data points have also fueled expectations of Fed rate cuts later this year, underpinning this market rotation.
The US yield curve steepened notably, with the 2-10 year spread popping above -15 bps, while the VIX rose sharply through Thursday. A letter from former NY Fed President Dudley may have increased investors’ expectations for a Fed rate cut. The Bank of Canada cut rates for the second straight meeting, while global PMI readings indicated some softening, particularly outside the services sector. Pulte’s home orders fell short of analyst expectations, and June existing home sales missed targets despite rising supply levels. Richmond Fed data was weak, and several major industrial and chemical companies cut their outlooks. June PCE data indicated “further progress” for the Fed, echoing concerns about discretionary spending and a softening consumer pushing back against price hikes.
**Stock Market Performance:**
- 📉 S&P 500: Down by 0.8%
- 📈 Dow Jones: Up by 0.8%
- 📉 NASDAQ: Down by 2.1%
- 📈 Russell 2000: Up by 3.3%
**Economic Indicators:**
- **US Yield Curve:** Steepened significantly with the 2-10 year spread popping above -15 bps.
- **June Existing Home Sales:** Missed expectations despite rising supply levels.
- **Richmond Fed Data:** Indicated economic weakness.
- **June PCE Data:** Showed progress in cooling inflation.
- **Bitcoin Prices:** Climbed ~5% ahead of Former President Trump’s appearance at a crypto conference.
- **Dollar and Yen:** The dollar remained steady, while the Yen rose amid speculation of a potential BOJ rate hike.
**Corporate News:**
- **Google and Tesla:** Earnings reports did little to curtail volatility. Tesla missed estimates and Google’s YouTube ad revenues fell short, leading to a decline in AI enthusiasm as Google's AI monetization efforts didn't meet investor expectations.
- **Ford Motor:** Shares tumbled after a significant earnings miss, with the company continuing to lose money on each EV it produces.
- **3M:** Shares surged after posting a big earnings beat, despite noting softness in consumer discretionary demand and mixed industrial end markets.
**Looking Ahead:**
Next week will feature several key events:
- **Fed Rate Decision**
- **Powell Press Conference**
- **U.S. Jobs Report**
- **Earnings Reports:** Microsoft ( NASDAQ:MSFT ), Apple ( NASDAQ:AAPL ), Meta ( NASDAQ:META ), Amazon ( NASDAQ:AMZN ), Intel ( NASDAQ:INTC ), ExxonMobil ( NYSE:XOM ), Chevron ( NYSE:CVX ), Boeing ( NYSE:BA ), and McDonald's ( NYSE:MCD ).
As we look forward, these developments will be crucial in shaping market sentiment and guiding investment decisions. If you have any questions or need further insights, feel free to reach out. Here’s to another week of informed investing and strategic decision-making! 🌟
### **Market Forecast (Updated 07/28/2024)**
**SPX** - TSLA reported poorly on their earnings + weak guidance from GOOGL drove the market down. Money continued to Rotate into Small Caps from tech sector last week.
With FOMC this week, we could potentially see a bottom in the market by Friday as we are pretty oversold at this point.
Next resistance $5505 and $5653
Next support $5423 and 5285
Weekly Sentiment = Oversold
**Chart Analysis:**
()
**Dollar Index:** DXY-Currently, the market is looking at 2-3 rate cuts by the end of the year, But we should get a clear picture from FOMC chair this week on exactly what they are thinking.
JPY is also starting to gain strength, Both of these things could weaken the DXY.
Next resistance $104.78
Support $104
Sentiment = Crossover to downside
**Put to call Ratio: 1.15—> 1.28
Next FOMC date: July 31, 2024**
**Fear & Greed Index: 49—>45**
! (prod-files-secure.s3.us-west-2.amazonaws.com)
**BTC:** Crypto market has been pretty strong and testing resistance, Trump spoke very highly of crypto as well but he also flip-flops a lot.
The key thing to watch here is the Dollar index, if that continues to drop, we could see btc test new highs.
However, we have a huge trendline at 68k and if we can break over it, it could start a bigger bull run as well.
Google our "DIYWALLST 2024 Crypto Forecast" for our favorite alt coins.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade 7-28 - Vortex Rally Phase InitiatesGood afternoon everyone,
This Sunday update highlights my SPY Cycle Patterns for next week and discusses my belief that the US stock market has entered a new Vortex Rally Phase.
For those unfamiliar with my extended research, every weekend, I spend more than 10 hours creating Custom Index charts and reviewing other proprietary data points while attempting to determine an outcome related to capital flows, expectations, and global market trends.
It's not like I sit here trying to study every global market. I have about 20+ Custom Index charts/data points that show me most of the data I need to see; then, I attempt to verify my expectations by looking at other data points/charts.
I'm seeing the start of a Vortex Rally (as I call it). This is something very important for traders to understand and is clearly defined in this video.
Get ready. We will see a solid US Stock market MELT-UP over the next 12+ months.
Get some
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
#202431 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500 e-mini futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well.
Quote from last week:
comment: Increased volume on the down move is telling you that this one is the real one. Over the next months, market will test down to the bull trend line from 2023-10, which is also where the weekly 20ema is. Friday we stopped around the smaller bull trend line and it’s a decent place to expect some pullback before we be on our way to 5400/5450
comment: Low of the week was 5432 and I wrote 5400/5450, +121 points. For most letters/rooms/subscriptions you have to pay good money for those outlooks, if you even get them this accurate. Hope you made some.
current market cycle: Bull trap triggered. Probably forming a trading range first before we get to the bear trend. First guess for the range would be 5300 -5600
key levels: 5400-5600
bull case: Lower lows and lower highs. Bulls stopped the selloff where they had to and their last bull trend line before only the one from the covid low remains. I do think the two legged correction is good for now for the bears and a bounce is due. Since both sides have reasonable arguments, I think it will come down to earnings. If the mag7 report good and their outlook stays good, we bounce higher. If they fail or some fail, we move sideways. Slightly favoring a higher bounce to form a proper channel downwards. Decent chance bulls might close both bear gaps.
Invalidation is below 5400.
bear case: Bears see another minor pullback which could not even get to the daily 20ema at 5640. They want another strong leg down to 5300 to make it clear that the bull trend is dead. It’s not out of the picture that they get it. Probability wise, it’s more reasonable to expect the bull trend line to hold and at least go more sideways before another leg down. Issue with that is, that next week we have so many news that will have a big influence on longer term traders, that we will most likely go higher than 5500 or lower than 5400. For bears it’s a really bad short right at the big support. You can scalp short on strong momentum again but bears will likely wait for a pullback before they try again. My preferred path forward is the bear channel on my chart below.
Invalidation is above 5600.
outlook last week:
short term: Bearish but also expecting a pullback first. Same as dax.
→ Last Sunday we traded 5553 and now we are at 5499. Low was 5432. Bearish was right. Pullback was right. Hope you made some.
short term: Neutral. Both sides have valid arguments. Will make this dependent on earnings and will only do scalps for now. Market has to form a better channel if it wants a sustained down move.
medium-long term: First target for this section was 5450 and that will be hit over the next days or 2 weeks. After that is 5300 over the next 3-8 weeks and 5000 could be hit again in 2024. —update: 5450 was hit mid July. Next comes 5300 over the next 2-6 weeks.
current swing trade: Took profits on the swing short from 5700. Will add again above 5550.
chart update: Added my preferred bear channel for the next weeks.
