2024 is a wrap - time for 2025 outlook - let's go2024 will be a memorable year
-23% gains
-Mag 7 + Semiconductors + Bitcoin all contributing nicely
-PLTR was the top performing stock in the S&P 500 (impressive 340.48%)
As always, 2024 wasn't in a straight line up, though it felt like it at times
VIX had #1 and #2 largest single day moves ever (Aug 5 and Dec 18)
April was a sticky inflation pullback month
August was a Bank of Japan deleveraging weekend scare
FED dominated the catalysts with guidance, narrative, and wait and see between employment and inflation data
2025 will bring new president, new policy, new Republican power. Many were excited about this but there are still checks and balances and markets need more reassurance than hyperbole. I plan to look at income plays and trading plays were buy and hold. Whatever I do own equities and ETFs wise, I want protection just in case the market isn't as straightforward and bullish like it has been since Oct 2022.
Happy New Year - thanks for watching!!! See you in 2025!!!
SPX (S&P 500 Index)
S&P500 - The Next 14 Days Will Decide Everything!S&P500 ( TVC:SPX ) is about to break all resistance:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
Over the past couple of weeks, the S&P500 has been repeating the major breakout rally of 2021. Back then the S&P500 actually broke above the channel resistance and immediately rallied more than +15%. If we see the confirmed breakout, we will likely see the same thing happening again.
Levels to watch: $6.000, $7.000
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
2024 REVIEW MARKET STOCKS !! AND 2025 PROYECTIONS Why Stock Prices Tend to Rise Over Time
It's easy to get caught up in the ups and downs of the stock market, but zoom out, and you'll see a clear trend: stock prices generally increase over the long term. Here's why:
Economic Growth: As economies grow, so do corporate earnings. Companies expand, innovate, and become more profitable, which naturally pushes stock prices up.
Inflation: Over time, inflation erodes the value of money, but stocks can act as a hedge. As the price level increases, so do the nominal values of stocks.
Dividend Reinvestment: Many companies pay dividends, and when these dividends are reinvested into more shares, it compounds growth. This reinvestment can significantly boost the value of an investment over decades.
Market Sentiment: Optimism about the future can drive stock prices higher. When investors believe companies will do well, they're willing to pay more for stocks today.
Low Interest Rates: In recent decades, low interest rates have made borrowing cheaper for companies, fueling growth, and also made stocks more attractive than low-yield bonds or savings accounts.
Technological Advancements: Innovation leads to new industries and improves efficiency in existing ones, driving up stock values through increased productivity and new market opportunities.
BITCOIN LONG TERM 200K 250K BY SEPTEMBER 2025 !!Institutional Adoption: Major financial institutions are increasingly embracing Bitcoin, with companies like MicroStrategy and BlackRock investing heavily in the cryptocurrency. This institutional interest is expected to drive demand and boost prices1.
Regulatory Changes: Favorable regulatory developments, such as the approval of Bitcoin ETFs, are making it easier for investors to enter the market. These changes are likely to attract more institutional and retail investors, further driving up the price1.
Macroeconomic Conditions: With low interest rates and accommodative monetary policies, investors are seeking alternative assets like Bitcoin. This increased liquidity is expected to flow into cryptocurrencies, pushing prices higher1.
Supply Constraints: Bitcoin's supply is limited to 21 million coins, and the upcoming halving events will reduce the rate at which new Bitcoins are created. This scarcity is anticipated to drive up prices as demand continues to grow.
Historical Trends: Past halvings have been followed by significant price increases, and many analysts believe this pattern will repeat. The combination of reduced supply and growing demand could propel Bitcoin to new heights.
S&P 500: Final Day Analysis with Key Levels and Trend OutlookS&P 500 Technical Analysis
It's the final trading day of the year.
The price shows bullish momentum up to 5,969, which must be confirmed by a 4-hour candle closing above this level. This could lead to a further rise toward 6,022, followed by a correction.
Conversely, stability below 5,969 will trigger a bearish move from 5,969 toward 5,899 and potentially 5,863.
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 5937
Resistance Levels: 5969, 6022, 6053
Support Levels: 5905, 5863, 5790
Trend Outlook:
Bearish Momentum: Stability below 5,969
Bullish Trend: If 5,969 is broken
S&P500 First 4H Death Cross in 5 months! Is it bearish indeed?The S&P500 index (SPX) is on a decline since Thursday and despite the thin holiday volume and less trading days, is a sign of weakness on the short-term. Especially having completed a Death Cross on the 4H time-frame on December 24.
In fact, this is the first 4H Death Cross in 5 months (since July 29). During that sequence, the index was under heavy seasonal selling pressure but initially rose following the Death Cross. Soon after though it collapsed lower on bad macroeconomics.
This time however, the trend turned bearish immediately after the Death Cross. The buy signal in August was the Aug 05 4H RSI Double Bottom. This time, the RSI has already started rising since yesterday.
In our opinion, this suggests that the selling pressure by the 4H Death Cross is most likely over and we can technically see the new Bullish Leg of the 3-month Channel Up.
The most common % rise these past few months has been +7.19%. If we count that from the recent December 20 Low, then we should be expecting a 6200 Target by late January - early February.
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SPY (S&P500 ETF) - Daily Price Consolidation - End of 2024SPY (S&P500 ETF) is currently in a short-term consolidation price pattern (end of December 2024).
SPY price needs to hold and rally above $583 to avoid a daily bearish head-and-shoulders resistance price pattern.
Support Prices to the downside are: $583, $577, $569, $555, $532.
Resistance Prices to the upside are: $592, $600, $604, $613, $626.
Several Key Events will be occurring in the USA, January 2025:
-CES 2025 Conference (week 2)
-Inflation Data (week 2)
-Stock Market Earnings Season begins (week 2 to 4)
-New President taking office, potential law changes (week 3 to 4)
-FOMC Press Conference (week 4)
Note: Any of the above events can cause stock market volatility and override technical charts.
Date: 12/30/2024 pm
Nightly $SPX / $SPY Predictions for 12.31.2024🔮
⏰ 9:00am
S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y
1️⃣ GAP ABOVE HPZ:
If we do gap up
definitely be bearish
2️⃣ OPEN WITHIN EEZ:
There is a slight bullishness left
but I think that goes in the
premarket, trade the futures
if you want, but I do believe that
the last trading day will be a V shape
3️⃣ GAP BELOW HCZ:
Once again will cause a
mechanical bounce
#trading #stock #stockmarket #today #daytrading #swingtrading #charting #investing
TG Therapeutics forming 3rd baseIs a company that develops and commercializes novel treatments for B-cell diseases
The stock initiated a bull trend at the end of 2023 after a breakaway gap and has gained +90% during 2024 and gave 2 opportunities to buy on breakouts
Now is forming a 3rd base and may give another opportunity to enter, all this while relative to its sector AMEX:XLV is making new highs
According to IBD is not among the industry leaders, but it has a 96 Relative Strength Rating against the SP:SPX
S&P 500: Consolidation and Bearish Momentum Below Key LevelsS&P 500 Technical Analysis
The price dropped on Friday and stabilized within bearish momentum. In general, as long as it trades below 6,022, the bearish trend is likely to continue toward 5,936, with the potential to reach 5,863 if the downward momentum persists.
The S&P 500 is currently consolidating between 5,993 and 5,936 until a breakout occurs.
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 5993
Resistance Levels: 6022, 6053, 6099
Support Levels: 5936, 5919, 5863
Trend Outlook:
Consolidation between 5993 and 5936
Bearish Trend while below 6022
SPX: optimistic in 2025?The last trading week for the S&P 500 passed in an optimistic sentiment, however, Friday's trading session decreased some of weekly gains. The index started the week at the level of 5.837, moved to the highest weekly level at 6.044, but ended the week at 5.970. The levels above the 6K could not hold. Analysts are noting that the US equity market could not sustain developments on the Treasury bonds market side. The 10Y US benchmark yields surged to the level of 4,6% on Friday. This came after concerns over US tariffs and future productivity. All sectors included in the S&P 500 posted daily losses on Friday, including the tech industry. TSLA shares were down by 4,5%.
The major investment banks and companies provided some insights of their expectations for the US equity markets in the year 2025. The expectations are marked with policy uncertainties, especially taking into account the start of a new Presidency in the US and the market noise related to it. Considering uncertainties, some higher volatility might be in store for markets in 2025. Analysts from CITI bank are recommending to investors to turn their attention toward sectors with strong fundamentals and reasonable valuations. Also they are pointing toward industries like health care, communication services and energy. Within the field of tech industry, CITI analysts are pointing toward the semiconductors industry sector.
The biggest investment firm in the US BlackRock, provided their view on key topics for both US and emerging markets. One of the sentences noted in the document says “we see macro policy becoming a potential source of disruption”, which describes nicely the sentiment of economic analysts regarding the Fed's past policy moves. Industries to which BlackRock analysts are pointing to are those related to further AI buildout and the low-carbon transition. With respect to macro developments, they expect that the Fed will further cut rates in 2025, while the jobs market will remain under pressure as well as US GDP growth.
Based on analyst forecasts, the year 2025 will be marked with uncertainties. Certainly some volatility might be expected, but general trends on equity markets from 2024 are most probable to continue also through 2025.
Weelky Leading Indicators are NOT BullishThe Weekly Leading Indicators have had broken into Bearish mode.
SG10Y have broken up of a trendline
TIPS and TLT have broken down support
JNK similarly broke down of support
The combined US Equities weekly chart are at an indecision range, but daily chart analyis tells of a more bearish story.
SOXL is holding up somewhat though.
So while all 4 Leading Indicators are red flagging.
The Indices have yet to respond.
Watch for it... and be careful.
Happy New Year 2025!
Combined US Equities - not nice end, not expecting a great startQuick analysis of the Combimed US Equities daily chart...
A significant rebound last week put the closing back into the decision box. Thing is, it went out the other end, as expected it would, BUT ended with a doji (indecision candlestick) and came back into the box... which suggest an exit to thru the lower end. This is abou to happen over the last days of the 2024.
And IF it exceeds the last low, then it is a tell all that 2025 is not going to be bullishly exciting.
In any case, a good retracement is overdue and likely comes in 1Q2025
Technicals here show weakening MACD and a decelerating rate of VolDiv.
Let's see how bullisht the first day of 2025 and the first week of 2025 can be... not terribly optimistic IMHO.
In any case... HAPPY NEW YEAR 2025 everyone!
Stay safe and stay happy!
ES Weekly Trading Plan: Balancing Market Strategy 12/29 🚨Trading Plan: Balancing Market Strategy with Failure Scenarios 🚨
Market Context
The market is currently in a balancing phase, with defined extremes of the balance zone at 6164 (high) and 5898 (low). Our approach will focus on trading around the midpoint and targeting key levels, while remaining aware of potential failure scenarios where the market tests beyond the extremes but fails to sustain momentum.
Key Levels
Balance Zone High: 6164
Balance Zone Low: 5898
Midpoint (Pivot): 6031
🎯 Upside Targets:
6072
6108
6144
📉 Downside Targets:
5999
5964
5928
🧑💼 Strategy Overview
Objective:
Trade within the balancing market, utilizing the midpoint as a pivot for directional bias, while also preparing for failure scenarios at the balance zone extremes.
Risk Management:
Place stops just outside the balance zone extremes to avoid being caught in a breakout trap.
Execution Plan:
Follow a systematic entry and exit plan based on price action near key levels, with heightened focus on failure scenarios at the extremes.
Trade Execution Plan
Pivot Zone: 6031
If price holds above 6031:
Look for long opportunities targeting upside levels.
If price breaks and holds below 6031:
Look for short opportunities targeting downside levels.
Upside Trade Setup:
Entry:
Enter long positions near 6031 on confirmation of support (e.g., strong buying momentum, bullish candlestick patterns).
Targets:
6072 → 6108 → 6144 →
Stop Loss:
Place stops just below 5999 to protect capital.
Downside Trade Setup:
Entry:
Enter short positions near 6031 on confirmation of resistance (e.g., strong selling momentum, bearish candlestick patterns).
Targets:
5999 → 5964 → 5928 →
Stop Loss:
Place stops just above 6072 to protect capital.
⚡ Failure Scenarios
Looking Above 6164 and Failing:
Scenario:
The market breaches 6164, signaling potential breakout buyers, but quickly reverses and re-enters the balance zone.
Trade Opportunity:
Short the market on confirmation of failure (e.g., rejection candlesticks, increasing sell volume).
Targets:
6144 → 6108 → 6072 → Midpoint (6031).
Stop Loss:
Place stops just above 6164 to avoid prolonged breakout risk.
Looking Below 5898 and Failing:
Scenario:
The market breaches 5898, signaling potential breakout sellers, but quickly reverses and re-enters the balance zone.
Trade Opportunity:
Long the market on confirmation of failure (e.g., rejection candlesticks, increasing buy volume).
Targets:
5928 → 5964 → 5999 → Midpoint (6031).
Stop Loss:
Place stops just below 5898 to avoid prolonged breakout risk.
Fake Breakout from Midpoint (6031):
Scenario:
The market shows a directional breakout from 6031 but fails to sustain momentum, reversing back into balance.
Trade Opportunity:
Trade in the direction of the failed breakout, targeting the opposite side of the balance zone.
Stop Loss:
Place stops just outside the failed breakout level.
💡 Risk Management
Position Sizing:
Risk no more than 1-2% of account balance per trade. Use tight stops to minimize loss in failure scenarios.
Break-Even Adjustments:
Move stops to break-even once the first target is hit.
📈 Trade Monitoring
Order Flow Analysis:
Continuously monitor volume and order flow near extremes and the midpoint for signs of breakout or failure.
Market Context Update:
Adapt the plan if the market establishes a new range or breaks out of balance.
💰 Exit Plan
Take profits incrementally at each target.
Exit immediately if the market signals sustained breakout momentum beyond the balance zone extremes.
🔔 Stay disciplined and adapt to the price action!
#BalanceZone #MarketStrategy #RiskManagement #SPX
Hurst's 4.5 Year cycles is in "Time wise"=Trough is close or notHurst's Cyclic Theory:
The basic tenant behind this theory is that markets achieve significant lows (or troughs) at the beginning (or end) of a cycle. Cycles have varying degrees based on wave length (in time) and are harmonized with the higher level cycles.
- Blue is 4.5 starting the day of the IPO !!!
S&P 500 Index key levels to Watch this weekIf you're trying to figure out the stock market's next moves, watch the S&P 500 Index. Last Friday marked a crucial point, with the index dipping to 5,930. This is the line you don't want to cross. Slipping below means we're below the 50-day moving average again and likely heading further south. Falling past this 5,930 mark breaks the trendline for the second time, and you'll probably see more pressure to dip below the post-FOMC low — that's your second critical level.
Things might get dicey from there, but if the selling picks up speed, I'd start eyeing the 200-day moving average as a target for early January 2025. Here's the bottom line: don't hurry to jump in at the start of January. We need some clarity on where the market's headed first.
S&P Completing Head and Shoulders Pattern?The S&P 500 www.tradingview.com might be completing a head and shoulders pattern—a classic bearish signal.
We’ve been following this for a while, we've seen the left shoulder at around 6,000 high, which hit on the SMP FOMO-o-meter, the head near 6,100, and a potential right shoulder at 6,000 high. The key neckline sits around 5,800—a break below could target 5,600.
Watch for volume spikes and economic data to confirm the move. But if the S&P pushes above 6,100, the pattern is invalid. Stay ready—this could shape the market! *Video being uploaded. Link to channel in profile *
es1! retests 5kes1! appears poised for a larger move down, based on the smaller timeframe count .
this leads me to believe that es1! has entered a larger fourth wave. historically, these waves take an average of 2 months to play out and typically result in a 12% decrease from the high before completing.
wave 4's often retrace back into the territory of the prior degree's wave 4, and i expect this one to follow suit.
pay attention to the green trendline i've drawn on the chart,,, it serves as a solid guide for where i anticipate es1! to find a bottom. dipping below the trendline is acceptable, provided we don't see any weekly candle closes beneath it. even if a weekly candle does close below, a strong recovery the following week, such as a gap-up scenario , could invalidate the breakdown.
there’s not much else to add here, as the chart is fairly straightforward. keep an eye on the trendline and monitor weekly closes for confirmation.
💸
SPX Head & Shoulders Top on Daily... Watching for $5600 to $5200Hi Traders,
SPX is showing signs of a potentially bearish formation—a head and shoulders top.
Historically, this pattern has signaled increased downside risk for equity markets.
As the price draws closer to the neckline, a break below could take us to the next major support level around 5,600.
This will be a crucial zone to for traders and investors to monitor closely.
Market conditions could sour quickly and an accelerated drop should cause traders to act cautiously over the next couple of weeks.
Good luck out there.
Mark
S&P500 The new Bullish Leg has begun.The S&P500 index (SPX) has completed 4 straight green 1D candles, and is already trading above its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) again. With its 1D RSI also reaching its MA (yellow trend-line), we view last Friday's candle as the new Higher Low at the bottom of the 4-month Channel Up.
This pattern is so far highly symmetrical with each of the 2 completed Legs so far, following an a-b-c-d structure. Right now we are on step (a) that is the start of the Bullish Leg. Based on this model, we are expected to approach the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the Channel Up on step (b) then make the mid-Leg pull-back to (c) and then resume the uptrend for the Bullish Leg's top on (d).
We expect that to be on at least 6300, which is marginally below the 1.786 Fibonacci extension, being the minimum level that each of the previous 2 Bullish Legs hit.
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APPLE 270 - 300 - 320 TP BY 2025 Apple's potential to reach a stock price of $320 by 2025 is significantly bolstered by its strategic shift towards artificial intelligence (AI). Here are key reasons why this could happen:
AI-Driven iPhone Upgrades: Apple is poised to enter what analysts describe as a "multi-year AI-driven iPhone upgrade cycle." This cycle is expected to drive significant hardware sales as consumers upgrade to newer models equipped with advanced AI capabilities. The introduction of Apple Intelligence, a suite of AI features, is anticipated to make the iPhone more compelling, encouraging upgrades even from users with relatively new devices.📷📷📷
Expansion in Services Revenue: With AI, Apple aims not just at hardware but also at enhancing its services ecosystem. Features like Apple Intelligence are expected to spawn new AI-driven apps and services, creating new revenue streams. This could lead to a multi-billion-dollar increase in services revenue, which traditionally accounts for a substantial portion of Apple's income.📷
Market Sentiment and Analyst Predictions: Recent analyst upgrades reflect a strong bullish sentiment on Apple's stock due to its AI strategy. For instance, Wedbush has raised the price target to $325, suggesting Wall Street might be underestimating Apple's growth potential in the
AI space. This optimism could drive investor confidence and stock value upwards.📷📷📷
Innovation and Market Positioning: Apple's focus on on-device AI, privacy, and security differentiates it from competitors. By integrating AI into its core products like Siri, Photos, and even the new iPhone SE expected in 2025, Apple can maintain or even increase its market share in both developed and emerging markets. This is particularly relevant as AI becomes more integral to everyday device usage.📷📷
Regulatory Adaptation: Despite facing regulatory challenges, Apple's ability to adapt and navigate these issues while continuing to innovate in AI could further solidify its market position. Compliance with new laws while maintaining innovation could be seen as a testament to Apple's strategic foresight, potentially boosting investor confidence.
SPX ETF TRADING CHART 2025Happy New Year! Here' is the chart I will be swing trading SPX ETFs showing with TV scripts so you don't have to code. I use the DAILY MES1! price chart and position in the aftermarket or premarket with an SPX ETF. Here is what I do. After the close --- 1. Golden Cross (50SMAX200SMA) shows the "trend". Only trade with the "trend" (only long since April 2023!). 2. Use Accurate Swing ("7") to enter the trade. 3. Exit the Trade when MES price CLOSES below HMA ("16")