Market Forecast $SPX (Oct 20th—> Oct 26th)Market Forecast (Updated 10/20/2024)
SPX - Economic data for September was very good and supported the soft landing narrative for the stocks to go up, Based on NFLX ER, the TECH sector is still strong and bullish.
Next resistance: 5,891 and then 5,913
Next support: 5,750, followed by 5,560
Weekly Sentiment: Mixed/Consolidation Period
SPX (S&P 500 Index)
SPX Will Grow! Long!
Take a look at our analysis for SPX.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is trading around a solid horizontal structure 5,865.92.
The above observations make me that the market will inevitably achieve 6,134.21 level.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
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SP500 Secondary Trend. Bowl + handle. Resistance zone. 11 2023Logarithm. Large timeframe 1 week. On the chart a big bowl, you can say already with a handle, the price is testing the resistance of the previous market highs for the 3rd time (entering this zone). Breaking through it, this resistance will become a very strong support during the pumping (probability no more).
Simplifying the complex is the key to success.
Complicating the simple is a guarantee for your own confusion and mistakes on the plain.
It is based on knowledge and experience, which always leads to simplification of actions, not to complication !!!!
The SP500 index (500 companies of the global hegemon) is a reflection of the "health of the US economy" and, conventionally speaking, of all markets in the world. It is needed more as an indicator of the direction of other markets, including cryptocurrency (the market is maturing), than for trading as such.
The SP500 index (500 companies of the global hegemon) is a reflection of the "health of the US economy" and, conventionally speaking, of all markets in the world. It is needed more as an indicator of the direction of other markets, including cryptocurrency (the market is maturing), than for trading as such.
1️⃣ The increase in % rates will stop closer to the US presidential election, which is logical.
2️⃣ Before elections, the ruling party always shows the people the positive in its work for the people, even if there is none, i.e. injects money into the economy.
3️⃣ Handing out "free money" to potential voters before elections. Who will take it to the stock and cryptocurrency markets.
4️⃣ Changing the bear market cycle to a conventionally bullish one in 2024 and a bullish one in 2025.
5️⃣ Overcoming previous all-time highs, this is the third time we have tested this resistance of the SP500 index.
In other words, everything is as always. Before the elections, “everyone is good” and is pushing the economy up. USA together with the Fed. Only the so-called “black swan” can influence this, whether it is real (there are no such things) or staged, it doesn’t really matter. But, this is all a hypothetical probability, nothing more, which must always be kept in mind. Therefore, when the market rises, protect your profits with stop losses or hedge with correlated positions. As a rule, nothing happens, and if it does, the event itself is always inflated by the media and bloggers tens of times in importance, thereby creating the illusion of fear. Don't fall for such tricks, either.
The present, and especially the future, is not always a projection of a repetition of the past. It may be conditionally the same, but the details are radically different. This must always be remembered.
On linear, it looks like this:
The main trend of the index More than 100 years for clarity. Publication 11/22/2022
SP500 index. The whole trend. Anniversary 100 years
Vertical growth by +372% (madness, super pump)
Before the super collapse of the “Great Depression” Publication 11/22/2022
SP500 index. Pumping before the "Great Depression" Code 372-69
The game controls the people, not the people the game. The concept of a lot is always replaced by a little, a little more, until all their expectations “burst” from greed. This encourages some to become wiser, some, on the contrary, the closer the abyss, the cuter the devils.
Can NVDA hit 200 USD in Q1 2025?🔸Time to update the NVDA trade setup, previously was expecting
a correction in this market, based on fundamentals we are definitely
overextended, however NVDA so far is trading purely based on momentum
ignoring the fundumentals. It's the star stock of the 2024 stock market.
🔸Previous strong uptrend, we broke above key psychological S/R at 100 usd. Right now we got a compression setup, expecting limited upside / pullback heading into US elections, having said that probably any downside beyond 115/120 usd is very limited. current floor set at 100/110 USD.
🔸Compressing into wedge formation, most likely we will break out
to the upside following a shallow pullback in November 2024.
Also November/December is a very strong seasonal period for US stock
market, so it's really hard to recommend short selling NVDA.
🔸Recommended strategy bulls: expecting pullback near 114/118 USD
in November going into elections, limited downside beyond 110 USD.
BUY/HOLD near 114/118 TP bulls is 200 USD, which is almost 75% upside.
Most likely we will reach target somewhere in Q1 2025, probably January.
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Trading Futures , Forex, CFDs and Stocks involves a risk of loss.
Please consider carefully if such trading is appropriate for you.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Always limit your leverage and use tight stop loss.
TSLA Best Level to BUY/HOLD 30% gains ABCD fractal🔸Hello traders, today let's review 4hour price chart for TSLA.
Recently we gapped down back into trading range, based on previous
update I still maintain neutral outlook until we complete the
re-accumulation structure, details see idea below.
🔸Having said that I'm expecting a decent 30% bounce in TSLA based
on the ABCD price fractal. ABCD fractal from 2023 projected into
the current market structure, point D expected near 188 usd timewise
most likely December/January. This will be a good reload for the bulls.
🔸Recommended strategy bulls: Bulls wait for pullback to complete
near 188 / point D and BUY/hold for a 30% bounce play. Exit/TP at 250 USD.
good luck traders!
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RISK DISCLAIMER:
Trading Futures , Forex, CFDs and Stocks involves a risk of loss.
Please consider carefully if such trading is appropriate for you.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Always limit your leverage and use tight stop loss.
2024-10-16 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Indexes - Bears hoped for a second leg down and build decent selling pressure but bulls bought the dip. Nothing unexpected and we likely continue sideways at the highs until bears give up again or more bulls get exhausted and want to secure profits. Technically I expect another leg down but we could retest the highs first. Don’t overstay your welcome in positions.
comment: 5850 was the low yesterday and bears could not break below. Weak bears gave up and we closed around the 50% pullback from Tuesday’s selling. Where does this leave us? Nowhere. 5890ish is the worst place to trade now because it’s the exact mid point of this trading range. Wait for strong momentum or until we reach one of the extremes again. These bullish earnings should have taken the market higher by now if you ask me. So there is a decent chance we are forming a credible top. 5850 - 5920 is the current range and until we see the MAG7 earnings, it probably won’t break out of it.
current market cycle: bull trend (bull wedge)
key levels: 5850 - 5920
bull case: Bulls bought the dip, no surprise there. They want 5900+ next and they will probably continue to buy 5850. No more magic to this. Since it was a bullish close, bulls are very slightly favored higher tomorrow but I would not buy 5886 right now.
Invalidation is below 5850.
bear case: Bears tried and failed. They have to make the market more neutral and trade sideways until more bulls want out of their position. BTFD is still strong. Anything above 5850 is bullish and bears have to scalp. Earnings will probably set the next impulse to either side.
Invalidation is above 5920.
short term: Neutral inside given range.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-13: Very rough guess for the remaining trading weeks in 2024. Spike up, decent correction (~10%), nasty (blow off top) year end rally if earnings hold in Q4. Don’t trade based on that guess.
current swing trade: Nope
trade of the day: Long the double bottom with yesterday’s low. Very obvious trade that worked greatly.
SPX500 Pattern Repeating with EERIE overlayThe REAL S&P500 Index is plotted here from the data on SP:SPX and FRED:CPIAUCSL which is CPI-All Urban Consumers which allows us to see the "REAL", or inflation-adjusted S&P500 (excluding dividends) over the long term.
Most people forget the impact that inflation has on the price of stocks because it gets complicated and small increases in price compound significantly over the the long term.
So, to get down to the impact of this pattern that I have reported on several times in the past (see links below), the market has had a long sequence of progress along with crises along the way in the form of financial panics, tax-law changes, banking system stress, real estate market collapses, trade wars and technological innovation cycles.
To break it down into the pattern, take a note of the 1955-1985 time frame and notice how there is a "mode" across that time frame which touches 13 different years.
In 1984 the market "expands" upwards as denoted by the yellow triangle, surging up by more than the previous year's range, which implies the start of a new trend. In this case, the trend is estimated to be 13 years because 13 years touched the same price. 1984 + 13 years sets up a new mode in 1997 which is where the new mode formed through 2012.
In 2013, the market surged upwards or "expanded" higher to indicate a new 11 year uptrend since there were 11 different years that touched the mode as shown.
The INTERESTING PART is that we had similar types of activities AFTER this new trend kicked off: Notice the yellow circle which encompasses the 1987 stock market crash and 1990 bear market in a wild, sideways, choppy market environment.
The same thing also happened after the current uptrend started with the 2016 election, 2020 covid crisis and even later the 2022 bear market (which is outside the circle).
The GREEN "BARS PATTERN" is a copy of the 1984-current market and then pasted to the start of the same structure in 2013 where the current uptrend started from the 'mode'.
Look how the market has moved rather in-synch with this pattern and I haven't even adjusted it for the 2-less years at the mode or 4 less years overall for the pattern from 1955-1984 (20 total years vs 13 years at one price) vs the 1997-2012 (16 total years vs 11 at one price).
We can start analyzing similar news and technological changes to look for interesting stories to compare the two time frames. See what you can find.
The AI craze now is certainly similar to the development of the internet bubble in the late 1990's. We have certainly heard this comparison before but this nails down the comparison into a more structural pattern that can be analyzed and used for making general projections.
I'll follow up on this and let me know if you have any questions.
Tim
10/16/2024 10:19AM EST
S&P500 If it holds this level, it can rise up to 6050.The S&P500 index (SPX) had a strong short-term pull-back yesterday, which is so far contained within the tight levels of a Channel Up pattern. The price is right at the bottom of it and if it holds, we can expect a strong rally continuation for the next 2 weeks, going into the U.S. elections.
This sequence is so far similar to the previous Channel Up patterns that emerged after the price broke above the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line). Once broken, it held right until their tops, which were after a +6.50% rise.
This is why, if this holds once more, we expect to see 6050 (+6.50% from the bottom) by the end of the month.
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S&P500 Channel Up on 1hour reached its bottom.S&P500 / US500 is trading inside a Channel Up on the 1hour timeframe.
The price crossed today under the 1hour MA50 and reached the Channel's bottom.
This is where the two bottoms prior where priced.
As long as it holds, buy and target 5930 (+1.88% rise, same as the previous bullish legs).
Previous chart:
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S&P 500 (SPX) Hits All Targets! Bullish Rally CompletesThe S&P 500 Index has shown strong bullish momentum, with the long trade successfully reaching all profit targets.
Key Levels
Entry: 5719.98 – The long position was entered as the price broke above this level, confirming bullish sentiment.
Stop-Loss (SL): 5703.41 – Positioned below recent support to protect against potential downside risk.
Take Profit 1 (TP1): 5740.45 – The first target was hit, confirming the upward momentum.
Take Profit 2 (TP2): 5773.57 – The second target was achieved as the bullish trend continued.
Take Profit 3 (TP3): 5806.70 – The third target was reached, indicating continued strength in the market.
Take Profit 4 (TP4): 5827.17 – The final profit target was reached, marking a highly successful long trade.
Trend Analysis
The price is well above the Risological Dotted trendline, indicating a strong bullish trend. The steady upward movement suggests that the market sentiment is favorable for further gains, although all targets have been hit, marking the trade's conclusion.
The long trade on the S&P 500 Index successfully hit all profit targets, with the final target at 5827.17 signaling a strong rally. The upward momentum was supported by the Risological Dotted trendline, reflecting solid market conditions for bullish trades.
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2024-10-14 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Indexes - In my weekly post yesterday I wrote “max bullish” a couple of times and I hope you did not short this today. Bulls are in absolute control and they have no reason to stop buying every small dip. You can not be a bear on the hope that this madness will stop eventually. It can go much further than you can imagine. Strong day, strong close, can only expect higher prices until bears print consecutive big bear bars on higher time frames. My best guess is still a blow-off top this week, which can mark the top before we see a bigger correction. Today felt like we are already in it.
sp500 e-mini futures
comment: Break above both bull wedges. Could this be a bull trap? I highly doubt that. 6000 will very likely be hit this year.
current market cycle: max bullish
key levels: 5860 - 6000
bull case: Bulls are in full control and we can only expect higher prices, given the strength of this follow through buying. We have a small channel which will likely break overnight and the next bull trend line is around 5890 already and aligns nicely with the 1h 20ema. Next obvious target is 6000.
Invalidation is below 5880.
bear case: Nothing really. Can they prevent 6000? Doubt it. Can they get a deeper pullback before we get there? Also doubt that. Anything below 5880 would surprise me. If they get it, 5850 is their next target and bigger support.
Invalidation is above 6050.
short term: Bullish af. Don’t look for shorts. Buy on pullbacks when bulls come around again.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-13 : Very rough guess for the remaining trading weeks in 2024. Spike up, decent correction (~10%), nasty (blow off top) year end rally if earnings hold in Q4. Don’t trade based on that guess.
current swing trade : None
trade of the day: Globex oscillated around last week’s close and after bar 10 it could not even touch the 15m 20ema again. Could have bought anywhere and made money except 15m before US close.
S&P500 Major bullish break out took placeThe S&P500 index broke above the Rising Resistance that was the top trendline of the Rising Wedge.
This transitions the price action from that pattern to the Channel Up, which has significant upside potential at the moment.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 6080 (+7.25% rise, same as the last rally).
Tips:
1. The RSI (4h) is overbought so expect the momentum to turn sideways for some days but that doesn't mean that the uptrend will stop. Similar thing happened during the previous bullish wave.
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xauusd h1 short from resistance tp 2635 usd🔸Hello traders, today let's review 1hour price chart for gold. Strong
V-shape recovery in progress off the recent lows, however heavy
overhead resistance will trigger a pullback from S/R levels overhead.
🔸Strong resistances at 2665 and 2675. key S/R bulls at 2635 usd.
currently getting overextended so it's recommended to focus on
short selling rips/rallies from overhead resistance.
🔸Recommended strategy bears: short sell from overhead resistances near 2665/75 SL 2680 USD TP 2635 usd. usd fixed stop loss for this entry at 2680 usd, swing trade setup may take more time to hit target. good luck traders!
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RISK DISCLAIMER:
Trading Futures , Forex, CFDs and Stocks involves a risk of loss.
Please consider carefully if such trading is appropriate for you.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Always limit your leverage and use tight stop loss.