NIKE - Just Buy It!Nike tends to have corrective phases every now and then. We are now seeing one of the biggest corrections to date. We could be correcting in excess of 50% which would put us in a great position to buy Nike for the longer term.
Nike is the world's largest supplier of athletic shoes and apparel and a major manufacturer of sports equipment, with revenue in excess of US$46 billion in its fiscal year 2022.
In other words, its very unlikely that Nike will go bust and so any dips should be seen as a buying opportunity.
Our first point of interest is the structure level at 80. Ideally we break below that in accordance Elliott Wave Theory. We want to see wave C go below wave B.
Our ideal buy zone is the 60 level where we have the -27 fib extension. Once we come towards that region, we'll be looking for any bullish price action indicating a reversal and the start of the next massive bullish leg. If we go even lower than 60, then it's more of a reason to buy and load up!
We're looking for targets of atleast 200% as first targets. This trade is one to hold for the long term.
What do you guys think?
Goodluck and as always, trade safe@
SPX (S&P 500 Index)
ETFS - Mutual Funds The Next Depression Is Near.
Uncanny, absolutely uncanny how every week we get new ETF's launches and more and more capital is flowing leveraged to these funds to beat inflation.
1924 mutual funds were the main red flag fuelling the market rally that ended in the great depression.
The amount of QE that will need to be printed to offset this inevitable at this point is beyond 50 trillion.
Hyperinflation risk
Bond market collapse (YCC)
People don't have a clue what's unfolding
In 1930 people ran into Government bonds for safety
In 2020s when the Government is insolvent where does the money run?
Bitcoin & Gold.
Holy Cannoli...So many things saying sell and take profits right now it's not even funny.
500 is the first real support. If that green wave iii uptrend is to stay in play, we need to bounce at 500, which would only be -3% or so.
Then 485 is the next support at the bottom of the uptrend channel. If 485 is broken then those red downtrend C waves are in play.
1. SPY ran into trouble at the top of it's uptrend channel. Technical short-term sell indicator.
2. SPY is about to close the week with a bearish engulfing pattern. This is actually a call for a large downtrend. Look at the large white arrows pointing down. Those are all similar weekly candles that led to major corrections.
3. Gold/Silver/Oil are all going up meaningfully. Inflation coming back...? Or the markets may finally be pricing in geopolitical tensions with Iran now vowing revenge.
4. The BTFP ceased extending new loans on March 11, 2024. www.federalreserve.gov
5. Reverse Repo is running out of money to pump into the market. fred.stlouisfed.org
6. I am counting 8 unfilled gaps, which...by no means do they need to all be filled. There is no law that states gaps must be filled, but rather it is a tendency. This is similar to the tendency of pull backs to be alternating in character (if the last pullback was long a choppy, the next tends to be short and sharp)
Extra Sidenote/Soapbox here:
Believe it or not, long term bond yields are still in an uptrend. Credit is still constrained, and we'd already be in a financial crisis if it weren't for the fact that the Fed is allowing banks to void the mark-to-market principle in treasuries. This means if a bank purchased 1 trillion in treasuries, but they are down -50%, they can still currently claim to have 1 trillion in "liquidity", which is absolutely not the case because if they had to sell them tomorrow either the Fed would have to buy them and take gigantic losses, or the market would pay them the market rate and the banks would fail. Imagine your brokerage account was down by 50%, but you could claim you have 100% of those liquid assets and go get a loan back off that. That would be illegal for us mere peasants.
We are in weird, weird times.
www.conference-board.org
Check out the US10Y
NVIDIA SL 850 TO 1000 ENTER BETWEEN THIS LEVELS Dominance in AI and Software Solutions: NVIDIA stands out as a leader in software and AI solutions. Its technology is crucial for various applications, including AI training, autonomous driving, and the metaverse. The company’s strong position in these areas provides a solid foundation for growth1.
Beat-and-Raise Potential: NVIDIA is expected to deliver a strong earnings report. Despite high demand for its artificial-intelligence hardware, the company may still outperform expectations. Analysts anticipate a beat-and-raise scenario, which could drive the stock price higher1.
Long-Term Tailwinds: The secular trends favoring AI, autonomous driving, and the metaverse are long-term tailwinds for NVIDIA. As these technologies continue to evolve, NVIDIA’s revenue streams from software and AI solutions are likely to grow consistently1.
Trade Strategy
Entry Point: Consider entering the trade when NVIDIA’s stock price is around the current market price (approximately $434.86).
Stop Loss: Set a stop loss at $850. If the stock price drops to this level, exit the position to limit losses.
Take Profit: Aim for a take profit target of $1000. If the stock reaches this level, consider selling to lock in profits.
Trading Plan for Friday, April 5th, 2024Trading Plan for Friday, April 5th, 2024
Market Sentiment: Extreme volatility expected due to the recent selloff and NFP data release. Caution and adaptability are crucial.
Important Note: Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) was released at 8:30 AM (EST). Expect outsized moves and volatility. Avoid predictions, and look for failed breakdowns as potential trade entry points.
Key Supports
Immediate Supports: 5203, 5196, 5190, 5181-84 (major), 5177, 5171 (major), 5163, 5155 (major), 5146, 5142 (major), 5136, 5127 (major), 5115, 5102 (major).
Major Supports: 5171, 5142 (important for long positions), and 5102 (major).
Key Resistances
Near-term Resistance: 5212 (major), 5221 (major), 5230, 5235, 5240 (major), 5250, 5257, 5266 (major), 5274, 5279, 5288 (major), 5294 (major), 5302.
Major Resistances: 5257, 5266 (major), 5288 (major), and 5310 (major).
Trading Strategy
Knife-Catch Mode: Exercise extreme caution and use small position sizes. Longs ONLY at major supports, prioritizing 5181-84, 5171, and especially 5142. Consider longs after a failed breakdown and reclaim.
Bullish Reclaims: If bulls regain 5212, watch for acceptance above this level before adding longs. Target level-to-level profits.
Short Opportunities: Look for back-tests of the 5235-40 zone as potential shorting areas, as it hasn't been fully retested from below.
Bull Case
Support Holds: Bulls need to reclaim 5241 to maintain control and set the low. Moves towards 5265 and 5288 are possible if this occurs. Short-term, reclaiming 5212 is essential.
Downside Magnet: If bulls make a strong move, 5143 is a significant downside target to watch.
Bear Case
Resistance Rejections: If bulls fail to retake 5212, expect a retest and rejection. This could open up a move towards 5194 for potential short entries (only if a bear flag establishes between 5212-5196).
News: Top Stories for April 5th, 2024
U.S. Jobs Report
Strong March jobs report with 303,000 positions added.
Unemployment rate down to 3.8% shows continued labor market resilience.
Impact on Fed's rate decisions uncertain, as wage growth easing.
Corporate News
Johnson & Johnson's $13.1 billion acquisition of Shockwave Medical announced.
Updates on Telecom Italia financing and China Oilfield Services operations.
Market Performance
S&P 500 hits all-time highs in March, strong Q1.
Nasdaq-100 projections point to good performance for 2024, with specific stock highlights.
Global Economic Indicators
Japan monitors volatile Yen movements.
Disappointing German factory data raises slowdown concerns.
India's strong economy leads to stable interest rates.
Energy Sector
Oil dividend stock recommendations for April.
Shell's gas output exceeds guidance.
Monetary Policy & Inflation
Fed remains inflation-focused, considering mid-2024 rate cut.
Developed market inflation expected to ease toward 2024 end.
Geopolitical Concerns
Questions emerge about reliance on U.S. nuclear capabilities.
U.S. strategic moves in managing China's growing power.
Technology & Disinformation
Chinese AI-powered campaigns targeting U.S. voters & Taiwan.
Market Outlook
J.P. Morgan sees a challenging 2024 ahead due to economic slowdown potential.
Overall positive 2024 outlook for U.S. stocks, experts discuss valuations and rate forecasts.
Reminder: Expect high volatility tomorrow due to NFP data and the recent sell-off. Adapt your trading size accordingly (1/4 size recommended). Focus on reacting to price action over any predictions.
S&P500 hit the 4H MA200 after 5 months!The S&P500 index (SPX) came extremely close to hitting the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) yesterday for the first time in 5 months (since November 02 2023)! As you realize, this is a key Support for the uptrend and the Channel Up in particular, which has been the dominant pattern these months to drive the index to High after High.
The fact that the price is rebounding upon this 4H MA200 test, keeps the trend bullish. If it breaks above the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) again, we will continue buying and target 5350, which will be a little less than a +4.35% rise from yesterday's bottom. As you can see on the chart, rallies to Higher Highs between +4.35% and +5.00% have been the standard within this pattern.
If on the other hand, the index closes a 4H candle below the 4H MA200, we will turn bearish on the break-out, first targeting the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) and if also broken, extend to 5050 (Support 1).
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SPX500 H4 | Approaching 50% Fibonacci supportSPX500 is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 5,111.36 which is a pullback support that aligns with the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 5,040.00 which is a level that lies underneath a pullback support and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.
Take profit is at 5,259.24 which is a pullback resistance.
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S&P still very strong; rally goes onLast week began with bearish consolidation, which was short-lived. The bulls quickly regained control, established a daily higher low, and broke through the previous week's resistance at 524.1 . Although the breakout was not very strong, it was still meaningful. The March close was very strong, posting a +3% gain, and both weekly and daily charts are indicating an uptrend. All major sectors appear strong. The bulls have full control, and the rally is likely to continue.
This week is heavily loaded with economic data releases, which might cause some volatility. However, unless there are major surprises, it should not affect our main thesis.
Important level to watch is 518.4 . As long as it holds, buyers are in control
Disclaimer
I don't give trading or investing advice, just sharing my thoughts.
S&P500: Bearish reversal to the 1D MA100.The S&P500 remains bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 60.356, MACD = 47.470, ADX = 36.597) but today is having so far the strongest bearish 1D candle since December 15th 2022. Having hit the 0.786 Fibonacci level of the Channel Up at the start of the week, this can be a technical correction to at least the 1D MA100 if the 1D MA50 breaks. Consequently we have a short term TP = 4,980.
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Trading Plan for Thursday, April 4th, 2024Trading Plan for Thursday, April 4th, 2024
Market Sentiment: Uncertain, as traders weigh consolidation signs against the underlying bullish trend.
Weekly Volatility Risk: High (consolidation phase, earnings, Fed uncertainty)
Key Supports
Support Levels: 5266, 5257(major), 5246, 5241 (major), 5235 (major), 5231, 5222 (major), 5212 (major), 5208, 5203, 5196, 5192 (major), 5181 (major), 5171, 5163 (major), 5155, 5148, 5137 (major), 5126 (major), 5120, 5115, 5109 (major), 5105, 5092-95 (major)
Key Resistances
Resistance Levels: 5274, 5279 (major), 5285 (major), 5294, 5298-5302 (major), 5308, 5315 (major), 5322, 5329 (major), 5341, 5347, 5354 (major), 5363 (major), 5372, 5380 (major), 5392, 5400, 5408 (major), 5416, 5423-26 (major), 5435, 5447 (major)
Trading Strategy
Consolidation Zone: We're likely in a consolidation phase between 5241 and 5279. This requires flexibility and adaptability – overly aggressive trading will likely be punished.
Supports: Look for potential long opportunities at 5257 (if today's high isn't broken), with stronger plays at 5246 or the 5241-35 zone. Be cautious with longs above these levels.
Resistances: Shorting resistance areas carries risk in a bull market. Consider shorts near the 5298-5302 zone, primarily for scalps.
Breakdown Watch: A decisive break below 5235 activates the bear case, triggering breakdown setups. Remember, breakdowns often trap traders – patience is key. Look for a failed breakdown (rejection and recovery), then consider shorts with level-to-level targets.
Bull Case
Holding Support: As long as 5241-35 holds, bulls maintain control. Consolidation between 5241-5279 likely, followed by a potential breakout above the 5298-5302 zone. This could lead to retesting 5315+.
Expect Consolidation: We may not immediately reach new all-time highs. Be prepared for an extended consolidation period before the next push higher.
Bear Case
Key Breakdown Level: A strong break below 5235 signals a bear move. Look for failed breakdowns and bounces as shorting opportunities. Exercise caution due to the potential for traps.
News: Top Stories for April 4th, 2024
Federal Reserve Outlook
Fed signals continued focus on rate stability rather than immediate cuts.
Concerns remain about the potential impact on equities in the long-term.
Cryptocurrency Market Dynamics
Bitcoin surpasses $70,000 with continued bullish momentum.
Approaching Bitcoin halving sparks interest in the sector.
Global Economic Indicators
Eurozone growth strengthens, while major economies like Germany & France lag.
Inflation remains a concern, influencing the potential for rate adjustments.
Financial Services Sector
Outlook remains positive for financial stocks, with specific recommendations.
Increased focus on weathering rising interest rates & long-term market resilience.
Additional Market Updates
Risk-off sentiment following natural disasters in Asia.
Eurozone inflation data signals the potential for ECB rate cuts.
Warnings & Opportunities
Analysts express caution regarding select financial stocks before a potential crisis.
Technology continues to disrupt finance, with evolving focus on AI and blockchain within the space.
Important Reminder: Despite the potential for short-term pullbacks, the main trend remains bullish. Consolidation is likely. Prioritize adaptability, risk management, and reacting to the price action rather than relying solely on predictions.
SP500 Expecting a dropI think SP500 is on the way to perform a great drop. Looking on H4 timeframe we can see a clean break below main trendline and a retest of it. I think today we will see some volatility around the beginning of the NY Session. I expect a fake moves first to the upside to grab some liquity, next we should see a drop till support zone around $5130
NFP preview: Trading S&P or GBPUSD? NFP preview: Trading S&P or GBPUSD?
US Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has reiterated on multiple occasions that a tight labor market acts as a deterrent to lowering interest rates. Which is why this month's NFP data release should be interesting.
This Friday's Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data is expected to show an addition of 200,000 new jobs. Since Feb 2023, data has consistently hovered between 300K and 150K. Many of these initial readings were subsequently revised downwards. Nevertheless, at the time, they significantly reduced the likelihood of Federal Reserve rate cuts and, most recently, bolstered the dollar.
Traders anticipated ~6 rate cuts at the beginning of the year, but now will be content if the Fed reduces rates three times. However, even three rate cuts are dubious, given that most recent US data has exceeded expectations. This Monday, the ISM manufacturing index turned positive for the first time since October 2022.
If the NFP data surpasses expectations, GBP/USD could become an attractive trade. In the event of a soft NFP reading, attention could shift to the S&P, which would have a window to rebound before major banks commence reporting their latest earnings.
GBP/USD has remained trapped within a rectangular pattern for almost 100 days now, potentially indicating some strong boundaries to take note of for a range trade. The pair currently sits in the lower half of the range.
The jobs data on Friday could heavily influence Wall Street's sentiment, potentially determining whether the market remains overall bullish or requires even more of a corrective move. The 5200 level could be pivotal. It has previously acted as resistance and now functions as support. Even if a breakdown occurs below this level, support could be anticipated at the 5100 level or the 50-day SMA.
S&P500 hit the top of 24 month Channel giving a sell signal.The S&P500 index / US500 hit the top of the Channel Up that started in August 2022.
If the 1week RSU crosses under its MA trend line, we will have a sell confirmation, much like July 31st 2023 and February 20th 2023.
The minimum decline has been -6.06%. Another one of this magnitude, conveniently tests the 0.382 Fibonacci level of the Channel Up and more importantly the 1day MA100 (happened on all corrections).
Sell and target 4970.
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Bulls and Bears zone for 04-03-2024After yesterday's sell off market is trying to rally during ETH session.
If traders can stay above yesterday's Close, we might get a bounce today.
Level to watch: 5252.00 --- 5250.00
Reports to watch:
US: EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
US: Jerome Powell Speaks
12:10 PM ET
Trading Plan for Wednesday, April 3rd, 2024Trading Plan for Wednesday, April 3rd, 2024
Market Sentiment: Cautious, price discovery after pullback in a strong uptrend.
Weekly Volatility Risk: High (price discovery, earnings season, potential FOMC pivot implications)
Supports to Watch:
Immediate Supports: 5245-5242 (major), 5235, 5232 (major), 5219, 5210-12 (major), 5203 (major), 5190, 5183, 5175-77 (major), 5171, 5162, 5155 (major), 5147, 5142, 5134-36 (major), 5126 (major).
Resistances to Monitor:
Key Resistances: 5259, 5267-69 (major), 5274, 5282-84 (major), 5293, 5300(major), 5307 (major), 5311, 5315 (major), 5321, 5329-33 (major), 5342, 5345 (major), 5352, 5357 (major), 5364, 5370 (major), 5380-82 (major), 5389, 5400 (major)
Trading Strategy:
Support & Resistance: Focus on potential bounces at support levels, notably 5242-5245 (triangle backtest) and the major support zones. Look for short opportunities at resistance levels, especially 5267-69 and 5282-84.
Knife Catch Mode: If sharp declines continue, be extremely cautious with longs, prioritizing major support levels only and following your rigorous knife-catching strategy.
Long Opportunities: Exercise patience if considering longs. Bids at 5242-45, with more confidence after a failed breakdown and reclaim, are possible. Consider potential adds above 5255.
Short Opportunities: Counter-trend shorting within the strong uptrend carries significant risk. Use extreme caution if considering shorts near major resistances. Watch for signs of a breakdown or retracement for better risk/reward entries. Target level-to-level profits.
Focus on Reactions: Don't force trades, be patient, and react to price action.
Bull Case
Triangle Backtest Hold: A successful hold of the 5242-45 triangle backtest, particularly if 5255 can be reclaimed, would signal potential for a rebound. This could lead to retests of 5267, a basing period, followed by a test of 5282-84, and potentially a move back toward 5300-07.
Bear Case
Breakdown Signals: Breakdown below 5232 could trigger selling pressure. Watch for shorting opportunities on failed breakdowns or bounces. Exercise patience as these setups often involve traps. First significant short target is likely around 5219.
News: Top Stories for April 3rd, 2024
Fed Policy Outlook:
Fed's report highlights financial sector vulnerabilities.
Markets expect a potential first interest rate cut in June, with an April cut possible.
Recent inflation data has moderated expectations for rapid easing of monetary policy.
Stock Market Performance:
S&P 500 reached new all-time highs in March, ending with its best first quarter since 2019.
Index gained 3.2% in March and is up 10.6% year-to-date.
April historically strong for the S&P 500, investors remain optimistic.
Economic Indicators:
Fourth-quarter GDP growth of 3.4% indicates resilience to rate hikes.
Bond market predicts the Fed will hold rates near-term, with potential cuts by June.
Global Developments:
China's service economy posts 15th consecutive month of growth, signaling recovery.
Cooling Eurozone inflation opens the door for potential rate cuts by the ECB.
Corporate News:
Agilent Technologies highlights new cancer research and diagnostics solutions.
Endeavor Group Holdings acquired by Silver Lake in a $13 billion deal, the largest in the media and entertainment sector.
Investment Considerations:
Earnings season may bring caution despite overall bullish market sentiment.
Potential pullbacks would be normal within the larger uptrend.
Climate Risk & Regulation:
The U.S. Federal Reserve has reportedly blocked a proposal to focus global banking regulations on climate risk.
Cryptocurrency & Blockchain:
Interest in cryptocurrency and blockchain technology remains high, with discussions on top investment opportunities and sector-wide adoption.
Remember: The market is reacting to a key support test within a strong uptrend. Be adaptable, manage risk, prioritize capital preservation, and always prioritize reacting to price action over any predictions.