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SPX (S&P 500 Index)

Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for March 7, 2025🔮 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍: 🇺🇸📊 Anticipated U.S. Jobs Report 📊: The Bureau of Labor Statistics is set to release the February employment report on Friday, March 7. Economists expect an increase of approximately 133,000 nonfarm payrolls, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4%.​ 📊 Key Data Releases 📊: 📅 Friday, March 7: 👷‍♂️ Nonfarm Payrolls (8:30 AM ET) 👷‍♂️: Forecast: +133K jobs​ Previous: +150K jobs​ This report indicates the number of jobs added or lost in the economy, excluding the farming sector, and is a key indicator of employment trends. 📈 Unemployment Rate (8:30 AM ET) 📈: Forecast: 4.0%​ Previous: 4.0%​ This metric represents the percentage of the total workforce that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month. 💵 Average Hourly Earnings (8:30 AM ET) 💵: Forecast: +0.3% month-over-month​ Previous: +0.2% month-over-month​ This metric indicates the month-over-month change in wages, providing insight into consumer income trends. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult with a professional financial advisor before making investment decisions.⚠️​ 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
2
S&P500: Potential Channel Up rebound on the 1D MA200.S&P500 is bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 34.564, MACD = -60.140, ADX = 38.870) as it unfolded the bearish wave of the long term Channel Up. The sequence has hit its 1D MA200 though, which is the major Support on this timeframe and being also the bottom of the Channel Up, we should be expecting a rebound. The first bearish wave of the Channel Up surpassed the 1.382 Fibonacci extension, so that is a valid technical target. The trade is long, TP = 6,300. ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TVC:SPXLong
by InvestingScope
1
Markets Bouncing Like Gummy Bears – What’s Next?Markets Bouncing Like Gummy Bears – What’s Next? | SPX Market Analysis 06Mar 2025 The market is bouncing around like a gummy bear on gummy juice—up one day, down the next, sometimes both in the same session. But now, a short-term price range is forming, making trade setups much clearer. This new range, which is easier to see on ES futures, aligns perfectly with my 6 money-making patterns, guiding bullish, bearish, and neutral scenarios. ADD is at an upper extreme, overnight futures are selling off, and we have tariff wars & red flag news on deck—so patience continues to rule the day. The market is setting up for its next big move, and I’ll be ready when it fires. --- Deeper Dive Analysis: The markets continue to whipsaw traders, creating choppy and indecisive price action. But amidst the chaos, a short-term range is forming, providing clearer trade setups based on my 6 money-making patterns. 📌 The Market Setup – A Tight Range is Emerging A short-term, well-defined price range is forming (visible on ES futures) This creates clear "what to do" signals based on my system Three possible scenarios: Bullish breakout – if buyers take control Bearish breakdown – if sellers push through support Neutral range-bound action – if price continues to chop around 📌 Key Market Observations Today ADD is at an upper relative extreme – signalling a possible short-term pullback Price is near the upper boundary of the range – a natural resistance level Overnight futures are already selling off – adding to the bearish bias 📌 What Could Trigger the Next Big Move? Tariff wars unfolding – potential for market-moving headlines Red flag news this month – major economic reports could act as a catalyst Markets at a tipping point – just waiting for the right push 📌 How I’m Trading This: ✅ Hedged for movement in either direction—no need to predict, just react ✅ Waiting for confirmation before making a move—patience wins ✅ Watching for breakouts or failures at range extremes This is a textbook setup—range-bound markets lead to breakouts, and I’ll be ready to capitalize on the move when it comes. --- Fun Fact 📢 Did you know? In 2009, a Twitter hoax claiming President Obama was injured caused the S&P 500 to drop 1% in minutes, wiping out billions in market value—before bouncing back when the truth came out. 💡 The Lesson? The market reacts to headlines before verifying facts—a reminder that patience and confirmation matter in trading.
SP:SPX
by MrPhilNewton
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for March 6, 2025🔮 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍: 🇪🇺💶 ECB Interest Rate Decision 💶: The European Central Bank is expected to announce a 25 basis point reduction in its deposit rate, bringing it to 2.5%. This move aims to stimulate economic growth amid ongoing uncertainties, including trade tensions and fiscal policy shifts.​ 📊 Key Data Releases 📊: 📅 Thursday, March 6: 📉 Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET) 📉:This weekly report indicates the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits for the first time, providing insight into the labor market's health. Forecast: 220K Previous: 215K​ 📦 Factory Orders (10:00 AM ET) 📦:This report details the dollar level of new orders for both durable and non-durable goods, offering insight into manufacturing demand. Forecast: -0.5%​ Previous: +1.2%​ ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult with a professional financial advisor before making investment decisions.⚠️​ 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
2022 Déjà Vu? Markets Stalling at a Critical Level2022 Déjà Vu? Markets Stalling at a Critical Level | SPX Market Analysis 05 Mar 2025 We expected roller-coaster swings this week, and the market hasn’t disappointed. The price action feels oddly familiar, reminiscent of early 2022, when a failed all-time high attempt led to a slow, choppy bear market. Right now, the market is stuck at a key decision point—dithering at the lower range like it can’t decide whether to break down or bounce back up. ADD data leans slightly bullish, suggesting a possible range-bound chop with an upward bias, unless sellers take full control and push us into the February/March correction cycle. No need to guess—I’m hedged and ready for either outcome. The only thing left to do? Wait for the market to tip its hand. --- Deeper Dive Analysis: The market is moving exactly as expected—lots of noise, little commitment, and price action that mirrors early 2022, just before the slow-motion bear market began. 📌 What’s Happening Right Now? Markets failed to make new highs and are now chopping near the range lows The last time we saw this structure? Early 2022 before a major shift downward Price is hesitating, signalling traders are waiting for a catalyst 📌 Two Possible Outcomes: 1️⃣ A Range Reversal (Bullish Scenario) ADD data suggests a short-term bullish bias A grinding, sideways move with an upward tilt is likely Ideal for small, quick trades—but no trend confirmation yet 2️⃣ The February-March Correction Cycle (Bearish Scenario) If support fails, sellers could accelerate the move lower Seasonal trends often bring a correction this time of year Watching for signs of a decisive breakdown 📌 How I’m Approaching This Market: ✅ Staying hedged so that a move in either direction is fine ✅ Being patient—waiting for a strong move before committing capital ✅ Avoiding impulse trades—letting the market tell me what’s next Traders who rush in too early this week could get chopped up in the indecision, while those who wait for a clear confirmation will be in the best position to capitalize. --- Fun Fact 📢 Did you know? The biggest one-day percentage drop in history wasn’t 2008—it was Black Monday in 1987, when the Dow crashed 22.6% in a single day. 💡 The Lesson? Markets can collapse out of nowhere, but structured traders with hedges and a system don’t panic—they profit.
SP:SPX
by MrPhilNewton
S&P500 1D MA200 hit after 16 months!The S&P500 index (SPX) has been trading within a multi-year Channel Up since the October 12 2022 market bottom and hit yesterday its 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time in 16 months (since November 01 2023). This is naturally an excellent technical buy entry for the long-term on this structure but is also a Higher Low for the Channel Up. At the same time, the 1D RSI has almost reached its oversold barrier (30.00), which during those 2.5 years has offered the 5 most optimal buy signals. Given that each rally after such Higher Low has been -4% weaker than the previous, we can expect the one that is about to begin to be +20% (-4% less than the previous one of +24%). As a result, our new long-term Target is 6900. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TRADENATION:US500Long
by TradingShot
5
SPX chart update after calling moves to the $ for 3 yearsHere is the 1st chart I did of SPX back in Jan 2022: I called the drop to the yellow line on chart. Nailed it to nearly the exact $. Then in October 2023 I mentioned this: The rally was confirmed for the next 6 months minimum. Then in Jan 2024 I posted a red horizontal line as target for the rally: Now you can see on current bottom chart that price hit the red line target. This chart setup you see on bottom chart also shows relevance to the 1st chart I did on SPX where when the blue EMA8 went below the orange MA21, a drop happened as per the red X marks and price changes shown on chart. This is close to happening currently which is easier to see on the top chart as I give a close up view on current price action and the EMA/MA's. Are we about to see a drop as per yellow price change on chart or can SPX bounce from here and move up to the green horizontal line on chart? The EMA/MA crossunder will tell us. Even though I called the moves all correct previously, at this time in the markets, things are alot trickier so I cannot say with conviction this time around as to which way it will go. I will update the analysis once the bounce or cross under is confirmed.
TVC:SPX
by Pro_Trader_HTBB
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for March 5, 2025🔮 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍: 🇨🇳📉 China's Manufacturing Activity Contracts 📉: China's official Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 49.9 in February, down from 50.1 in January, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity for the second consecutive month. This downturn raises concerns about global economic growth and could impact markets worldwide.​ 📊 Key Data Releases 📊: 📅 Wednesday, March 5: 📄 ADP National Employment Report (8:15 AM ET) 📄: Forecast: +160K jobs​ Previous: +183K jobs​ This report provides a monthly snapshot of private-sector employment, offering insights into labor market trends ahead of the official government employment data. 🏢 ISM Services PMI (10:00 AM ET) 🏢: Forecast: 53.0​ Previous: 52.8​ This index assesses the performance of the U.S. services sector. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while below 50 signifies contraction. 🏭 Factory Orders (10:00 AM ET) 🏭: Forecast: -0.5%​ Previous: +1.2%​ This report details the dollar level of new orders for both durable and non-durable goods, providing insight into manufacturing demand. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult with a professional financial advisor before making investment decisions.⚠️​ 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
S&P500 Index Goes 'Draconian', ahead of Roller Coaster ExplosionThe S&P 500's "roller coaster" behavior stems from its sensitivity to various economic, geopolitical, and market-specific factors that influence investor sentiment and corporate performance. Economic Factors: Changes in interest rates, inflation, and Federal Reserve policies significantly impact the index. For example, rising interest rates can reduce corporate earnings and valuations, leading to market sell-offs. Conversely, expectations of rate cuts can boost optimism and drive rallies. Investor Sentiment and Volatility: The S&P 500 is closely tied to the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), often called the "fear gauge." The VIX rises during market downturns as investors seek portfolio protection, amplifying price swings. This inverse correlation highlights how fear or optimism can drive sharp movements in the index. Global Events: Geopolitical tensions, natural disasters, or pandemics can disrupt markets by creating uncertainty about future economic performance. Such events often lead to sudden spikes or drops in the S&P 500 as investors react to perceived risks. Valuation Cycles: Overvaluation or bubbles in specific sectors can lead to corrections. For instance, high price-to-earnings ratios combined with slower economic growth can result in prolonged periods of stagnation or volatility. These factors collectively create the "roller coaster" effect begun in the S&P 500. // Life is like a roller coaster, as you don't know what's going to be thrown at you next, so all you can do is give us your best shot. -- Best wishes, @PandorraResearch Team 😎
CBOE:SPX
by PandorraResearch
Direxion High Beta Bull S&P 500 3X | HIBL | Long at $30.86Contrarian view, despite tariffs. I don't think this rodeo is over - but I could always be wrong. Even if individual consumption drops (which I think it has for some time now), rising prices will continue to mask it. Many, but not all, companies will profit and until there is a "bigger" catalyst... bullish. AMEX:HIBL is a personal buy at $30.86 (also noting the possibility of it going into the FWB:20S in the near-term) Targets: $40.00 $45.00 $50.00
AMEX:HIBLLong
by WorthlessViews
Hedged & Waiting - Let The Market Pick A SideHedged and Waiting – Let the Market Pick a Side | SPX Market Analysis 04 Mar 2025 The week starts with a bang—Trump, tweets, and political uncertainty, and markets bouncing like a hyperactive yo-yo. With bullish and bearish triggers already firing, we’re in a "could go either way" situation. Price is lingering at the range low on the daily chart, leaving us with two clear possibilities—a range reversal targeting the highs or a breakout move lower. With major political talks and red flag news this week, volatility could be off the charts. I’m hedged, prepared, and waiting. Whether the market pumps or dumps, I’m simply waiting for the next move to commit—because patience, as always, is the name of the game. --- Deeper Dive Analysis: The market opens with uncertainty at its peak—Trump’s latest comments, political negotiations, and key economic data are all on deck this week, creating wild swings. 📌 Market Structure – A Classic "Could Go Either Way" Setup Bullish & Bearish triggers have fired, but price remains stuck The daily chart shows price hesitating at the range low Two possible scenarios using my 6 money-making patterns: Range Reversal: Price rebounds to target the range high Range Breakout: Price collapses and follows a measured breakout move 📌 What’s Driving the Uncertainty? Political talks in focus – decisions this week could shake the markets Start-of-the-month red flag news – payroll reports, inflation data, and more General market indecision – traders waiting for a confirmed direction 📌 How I’m Approaching It – No Need to Predict, Just React I’m already hedged, meaning a move in either direction is fine Patience is key—waiting for price to confirm its move Letting the market decide—no need to force trades in choppy conditions This is one of those weeks where traders who chase moves will get whiplash, while those who stick to their system will come out ahead. The plan? Let the market "git goin’" before committing capital. --- Fun Fact 📢 Did you know? In 2016, one of Trump’s tweets about Boeing sent the stock tumbling over 1% in minutes, wiping out $1 billion in market value—all over a comment about Air Force One being "too expensive." 💡 The Lesson? A single headline or tweet can move markets, but traders who follow their system instead of knee-jerk reactions are the ones who win in the long run.
SP:SPX
by MrPhilNewton
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for March 4, 2025 🔮🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍: 🇺🇸📈 Implementation of U.S. Tariffs 📈: Effective today, the United States has imposed a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico, and a 10% tariff on imports from China. These measures aim to address trade imbalances and protect domestic industries. ​ 🇺🇸🏛️ Presidential Address to Congress 🏛️: President Donald Trump is scheduled to deliver his first address to Congress since his re-election, where he is expected to discuss the newly implemented tariffs and their anticipated impact on the U.S. economy. ​ investopedia.com 📊 Key Data Releases 📊: 📅 Tuesday, March 4: 🏛️ Treasury Auctions 🏛️: 8-Week Bill Auction (6:00 AM ET): The U.S. Department of the Treasury will auction 8-week bills, providing insights into short-term government borrowing costs.​ 17-Week Bill Auction (10:00 AM ET): A 17-week bill auction will also take place, offering additional perspective on investor demand for U.S. debt instruments.​ 4-Week Bill Auction (10:00 AM ET): The Treasury will auction 4-week bills, contributing to the understanding of immediate-term borrowing conditions.​ ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult with a professional financial advisor before making investment decisions.⚠️​ 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
Bear Swing Ends, Bullish Setup Begins - Here's what's next...Bear Swing Ends, Bullish Setup Begins – Here’s What’s Next | SPX Market Analysis 03 Mar 2025 Last week’s bear swing trade wrapped up beautifully, moving from range highs to range lows, before Friday delivered the perfect reversal. Price tagged the lower Bollinger Band, turned with multiple bullish pulse bars, and gave us a classic V-shaped price action entry—the perfect signal to exit the last bear trades and start the bullish swing. Now, I’m targeting 6,000 and 6,140, with hedge/bear triggers set below the recent lows. Meanwhile, Trump just dropped a bombshell over the weekend, hinting at a U.S. crypto reserve backed by five tokens. Could this inject some extra spice into the markets this week? Let’s dive in. --- Deeper Dive Analysis: The bear swing from last week completed as expected, moving from the larger range highs to the range lows, where Friday delivered a clean reversal setup. 📌 The Trade Setup – The Bullish Turn is In Price tagged the lower Bollinger Band – a key reversal zone Multiple bullish pulse bars confirmed momentum shift A V-shaped price action entry signaled the start of the bullish swing Exited the last bear trades as the trend flipped 📌 Bullish Program & Market Structure Now targeting: Smaller range low from last week’s 30-min chart Major resistance at 6,000 and 6,140 Hedge/bear triggers set below recent lows to manage risk 📌 Market News – Trump’s Crypto Reserve Idea Over the weekend, Trump hinted at a U.S. crypto reserve backed by five tokens This could spark volatility as traders absorb the implications Will this push risk-on sentiment higher, or cause unexpected market shakeups? The bullish program is in full motion, and I’ll be watching how price reacts at key levels this week while keeping an eye on how the market digests the crypto reserve news. --- Fun Fact 📢 Did you know? In 2010, a Bitcoin developer bought two pizzas for 10,000 BTC, now worth over $500 million—marking the first recorded Bitcoin transaction for goods. 💡 The Lesson? Markets evolve fast, and what seems trivial today could be worth millions in the future. With Trump hinting at a U.S. crypto reserve, could we be at the start of another major shift in financial history?
SP:SPXLong
by MrPhilNewton
Weekly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for March 3 – March 7, 2025🔮 Weekly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for March 3 – March 7, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍: 🇺🇸📊 Anticipated U.S. Jobs Report 📊: The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the February employment report on Friday, March 7. Economists expect an increase of approximately 133,000 nonfarm payrolls, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4%. ​ 🇪🇺💶 ECB Interest Rate Decision 💶: The European Central Bank is scheduled to announce its monetary policy decision on Thursday, March 6. Markets anticipate a 0.25% rate cut, which would adjust the deposit facility rate to 2.5%. ​ 🇨🇳📈 China's Economic Targets 📈: During the National People's Congress, China is expected to set its economic growth target at around 5% for the year. The government may introduce measures to boost consumption and support growth amid global economic uncertainties. ​ 📊 Key Data Releases 📊: 📅 Monday, March 3: 🏭 ISM Manufacturing PMI (10:00 AM ET) 🏭: This index measures the health of the U.S. manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while below 50 signifies contraction.​ 📅 Wednesday, March 5: 🏢 ISM Services PMI (10:00 AM ET) 🏢: This index assesses the performance of the U.S. services sector, with readings above 50 indicating expansion.​ Trading Economics 📅 Thursday, March 6: 📉 Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET) 📉: Weekly data indicating the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits for the first time.​ 📦 Factory Orders (10:00 AM ET) 📦: This report details the dollar level of new orders for both durable and non-durable goods, providing insight into manufacturing demand.​ 📅 Friday, March 7: 👷‍♂️ Nonfarm Payrolls (8:30 AM ET) 👷‍♂️: A key indicator of employment trends, reflecting the number of jobs added or lost in the economy, excluding the farming sector.​ 📈 Unemployment Rate (8:30 AM ET) 📈: The percentage of the total workforce that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month.​ 💵 Average Hourly Earnings (8:30 AM ET) 💵: This metric indicates the month-over-month change in wages, providing insight into consumer income trends.​ ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult with a professional financial advisor before making investment decisions.⚠️​ 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPY
by TrendTao
Weekly plan: ESH2025NYSE:ES FUTURES 3/3/2025 6012>> 6056>>> 6083-93 Weekly pivot: 5970 , Now Trading @ 5957 5919>> 5878>>> 5828 CONTEXT: NYSE:ES closed Friday's session with massive spike to the upside. Now NYSE:ES is back inside the previous balance zone that extends to 214 points range with 6056 for half back, however we need to be cautious since daily chart still is One Time Framing Down (OTFD) which would end if NYSE:ES is able to recapture or trade above 5971, at that point we will need to redraw daily balance zone. @everyone
CME_MINI:ES1!
by dhjesus
SPX: break of long term trend-lineThe game of nerves could be one of descriptions of developments on the US equity markets during the previous week. It was a heavy week due to a significant drop in the value of the S&P 500 but also other US equity indexes. The index declined about 1% during the previous week, and 1,4% since the beginning of February. Friday brought back significant buyers, where the index managed to end the week at the level of 5.954. The lowest weekly level was at 5.840. Tech companies were trying to hold, however, the majority ended February in a negative territory. Tesla is one of the most hit companies, with a weekly loss of around 16%. Analysts are noting that this represents the highest weekly loss of TSLA since December 2022. Other large companies also had significant drop, where Nvidia lost around 10%, while Palantir was down by around 19%, after recently reaching the historically highest level. On the other hand, companies within the financial sector performed in a positive manner, rising 1,3% for the week. When looking at the daily chart of S&P 500, the major support line was clearly breached. This line connects historical lows from October 2023, August 2024 and January 2025. It has been clearly breached on Thursday, however, Friday trading session brought the index back toward this line, but this time from the down side. Whether Friday's positive sentiment will continue is to be seen on Monday. For the moment the US equity market is under strong influence of geopolitical topics and potential trade tariffs. In addition, it should be considered that NFP data will be published in a week ahead, which might influence some higher volatility.
SP:SPX
by XBTFX
Selling Premium Going into Costco EarningsGiven Costco’s historical tendency for minimal post-earnings stock movement, along with inflated IV in the options market, selling premium via a bear call spread is a high-probability, risk- managed strategy to profit from an expected IV crush and minimal price movement following earnings. Key Points Supporting the Thesis: 1. Historical Price Movement: Over the past 4 years, Costco’s stock has experienced an average post-earnings price movement of only 1.24%. The majority of moves have been within a modest range of -1% to +2%. This indicates that despite earnings announcements, the stock tends to remain within a predictable price range, minimizing the potential for significant directional price swings. 2. Implied Volatility and Overpricing of Options: Currently, the options market is pricing in a 4.6% move for Costco’s stock post-earnings. Given Costco’s historical price movement patterns, this is an overestimation of potential volatility. IV tends to collapse after earnings announcements. 3. Costco’s High Valuation: Costco is currently trading at a P/E ratio of 61, which is significantly higher than historical levels. This suggests that the stock is already expensive relative to its earnings potential, making it less likely to experience a massive upward movement after earnings. The high valuation also means that even strong earnings may not drive significant upside, further increasing the likelihood of a muted post-earnings reaction. 4. Earnings Catalysts and Market Behavior: Costco’s earnings reports historically have had limited impact on the stock’s price due to the company’s stable revenue and earnings growth. Investors have already priced in much of the growth potential, leading to minimal surprise reactions to earnings releases. The combination of low historical price movement and high IV makes this a prime environment for selling premium, as the likelihood of large moves is low, while option prices remain high.
NASDAQ:COST
by KevinBurrows
2