SPX: risky optimismA strong performance of the S&P 500 and increased investors optimism was back during the previous week. Despite hotter than expected inflation figures for January, the market was pushing the index to the higher grounds during the week. The highest weekly level was reached on Friday at 6.122, still the ATH has not been breached on this occasion. The reason for investors optimism analysts are noting a more clarity over US Administration trade tariffs, on one side, and a drop in retail sales of -0,9% in January, much higher from market expectations. The combination of released data is pointing that the current elevated inflation is not putting pressure on Fed rates. The S&P 500 gained around 1,5% for the week.
Analysts from JPMorgan noted that the participation of earnings of the so-called Magnificent Seven tech companies included in the S&P 500 index are beginning to slow down compared to other companies included in this index. On the other hand, analysts from Swiss largest bank, UBS, are pointing to potential negative effects of US trade tariffs for the US economy. They are mentioning retaliation risks from trading with the US in case of higher tariffs. This points out that despite current market optimism, there are still ongoing risks which could easily impact investors' optimistic mood, and bring back higher volatility to the US equity markets.
SPX (S&P 500 Index)
Breakout or Fakeout? SPX at CrossroadsBreakout or Fakeout? SPX at a Critical Crossroads | SPX Market Analysis 17 Feb 2025
Welcome to another shortened trading week, thanks to Presidents' Day (or maybe an extended Valentine's weekend for the lucky ones).
With all the nudge nudge, wink wink out of the way, let’s talk setups. I’m watching two key trade scenarios—a breakout continuation or a break-in reversal (aka a false breakout).
For now, it’s time to grab a cuppa and a hobnob while waiting for the markets to open.
---
SPX Deeper Dive Analysis:
☕ Tea, biscuits, and breakout confirmations
With Tuesday’s open ahead, my focus is on two key setups that could determine the next tradable move.
Scenario #1 – The Breakout That Needs to Prove Itself
On Friday, SPX tried to break out, but price action was about as decisive as someone staring at a restaurant menu for 20 minutes before ordering a burger.
Price meandered sideways, leaving traders guessing
I chose to sit this one out, because long weekends can mess with momentum
Now, we watch if Tuesday brings real follow-through
If this breakout is legit, we should see:
✅ A strong push above Friday’s highs
✅ Sustained momentum without rapid reversals
✅ Clean continuation setups for bullish entries
If we get weak price action, I’ll hold off on longs and consider the next setup…
Scenario #2 – The ‘Break-In’ (A False Breakout Setup)
Now, let’s talk about something you won’t find in trading textbooks—the Break-In setup.
Think of it like this: Imagine SPX breaking out, getting everyone excited, then suddenly doing a U-turn and slamming back into the previous range. Traders who chased the breakout get trapped, and those who spot the reversal early have a golden shorting opportunity.
Signs of a Break-In setup:
❌ Price fails to hold breakout levels
❌ Quick rejection and reversal back into the previous range
❌ Bearish momentum builds instead of continuation
If SPX falls back into the range, I’ll be watching for short setups, because these moves can be quick and brutal.
So What’s the Plan?
🧐 1. Watch for Tuesday’s Open – If SPX continues Friday’s breakout, we look for bullish setups. If not, the Break-In trade is on the table.
🎯 2. Avoid Jumping in Too Early – Long weekends can create fake momentum that doesn’t hold. Patience is key.
🍪 3. Keep an Eye on Volatility – If volume is weak, the move could be another dud. But if volatility spikes, we could get a real tradeable move.
🚀 Key Takeaway? SPX has picked a direction, but the real move happens once full liquidity returns. Until then, I’ll be enjoying my tea and biscuits while the market figures itself out.
Fun Fact
📢 Did you know? The biggest post-holiday market crash happened in 1929, when the Dow plunged 12.8% after a weekend—triggering the Great Depression.
💡 The Lesson? Markets don’t take holidays—they just store volatility for later. That’s why smart traders stay prepared for anything after a break.
BRIEFING Week #7 : Whatch Out for the DollarHere's your weekly update ! Brought to you each weekend with years of track-record history..
Don't forget to hit the like/follow button if you feel like this post deserves it ;)
That's the best way to support me and help pushing this content to other users.
Kindly,
Phil
SPX/USDT: 100%+ PROFIT POTENTIAL SETUP!!🚀 Hey Traders! Ready to Ride the SPX Breakout? 👋
If you’re hyped for this setup, smash that 👍 and hit Follow for elite trade ideas that actually deliver! 💹🔥
🔥 SPX is looking strong and bullish! It’s breaking out from a falling wedge on the 4H timeframe and is currently retesting the breakout level—setting up for a potential explosive move! 🚀
📊 Trade Setup:
✅ Entry Range: CMP, add more up to $0.75
🎯 Targets:
Target 1: $1.02
Target 2: $1.26
Target 3: $1.50
Target 4: $1.78
🛑 Stop Loss: $0.68
⚡ Leverage: Spot or low leverage (Max 5x)
💬 What’s Your Take?
Are you bullish on SPX’s breakout potential? Share your analysis, predictions, or strategies in the comments! Let’s lock in those gains and ride this wave together! 💰🔥
ES Morning Update Feb 14thYesterday morning, a reclaim of 6066-70 zone in ES kicked off an easy long trigger, with 6125 set as the final target and 6139 as a bonus. We managed to tag 6139 overnight before the market pulled back to 6125.
As of now:
• Let the runners keep working, as thats all i do on Fridays mainly.
• 6120-23 is acting as support (it held, but it’s showing some weakness).
• Holding above this level keeps 6133, 6137, and 6154 in play.
• If 6120 fails, expect a dip to 6113, then 6098.
SPX Finally Pops - But Will It Stick?SPX Finally Pops – But Will It Stick? | SPX Market Analysis 14 Feb 2025
Well, pop the champagne, sound the victory bells, and maybe slap my thigh and call me Rodger—SPX has finally broken out! The only thing missing is a trumpet fanfare and maybe a ticker-tape parade.
But before we get too carried away, the real question remains—will this breakout hold strong or collapse into another Friday sell-off?
Let’s break it down…
SPX Deeper Dive Analysis:
🎉 The Market Has Moved – But Will It Last?
After days of tedious range-bound trading, SPX finally decided to pick a direction. But if history is anything to go by, we can’t get too comfortable just yet.
🔻 Friday Sell-Off Risk
If the last few weeks are anything to go by, we’ve seen:
A break higher, only for it to reverse sharply by Friday
A hard and fast flush that wipes out the week’s gains
A market that keeps traders on their toes
📉 Bear Trades Expire Today
My bearish positions are expiring
We never quite got the drop to range lows
A last-minute sell-off could help—but I won’t be holding my breath
🔄 What’s Next?
✅ Option 1: Look for a fresh swing trade entry today
✅ Option 2: Sit back, relax, and enjoy a long romantic weekend 😉
📌 Final Takeaway?
The range is finally broken, but we’ve been burned before by Friday sell-offs. Patience is key—there’s always another trade, but a long weekend is also tempting.
📢 Did you know? The biggest one-day stock market gain in history happened on March 24, 2020, when the Dow surged 2,113 points.
💡 The Lesson? Even record-breaking rallies can happen after massive crashes. Markets move in cycles—so while sell-offs seem endless, breakouts eventually happen… and vice versa.
Hellena | SPX500 (4H): LONG to the area of 6136.8 (Wave 3).Colleagues, I believe that wave “2” has completed its development and now I expect the upward movement to continue in wave ‘3’, which should break the maximum of wave “1”.
So far, I set the target as a minimum in the area of 6136.8.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
S&P500 Breakout And Potential RetraceHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring US500 for a buying opportunity around 6100 zone, US500 was trading in a downtrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the retrace area at 6100 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for 2.14.2025🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News:
Trump Signs Reciprocal Tariffs Executive Order: President Donald Trump has signed an executive order imposing reciprocal tariffs on countries with trade barriers against the U.S. The tariffs will not take effect immediately, which has been well-received by the markets.
Potential Ukraine Peace Talks: The U.S. is initiating discussions with Russia and Ukraine to potentially end the ongoing conflict. This development has led to a decrease in crude oil prices and could influence global markets.
📊 Key Data Releases:
📅 Friday, Feb 14:
🛍️ Retail Sales (8:30 AM ET):
Forecast: -0.1% MoM; Previous: +0.4% MoM.
🌐 U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes (8:30 AM ET):
Import Prices: Forecast: +0.5% MoM; Previous: +0.1% MoM.
Export Prices: Forecast: Data not available; Previous: +0.3% MoM
📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #daytrading #charting #trendtao
SPX 500 Returns to All-Time HighsDuring the last session, the SPX 500 index gained more than 1.2% following the release of PPI data in the United States. The core PPI (m/m) remained in line with expectations at 0.3% , providing a slight relief to the market, which had been on the edge after annual CPI inflation came in at 3.0%, exceeding the 2.9% forecast.
This mixed inflation data has given the U.S. index an opportunity to recover, as it remains uncertain whether the Federal Reserve will continue its aggressive interest rate policy. Persistently high rates have been impacting domestic consumption in the U.S. for several months, and if the central bank maintains rates at 4.5% in upcoming decisions, it could eventually become a bearish factor for the SPX 500.
Momentum Builds
In recent weeks, the SPX 500 had been trading within a sideways range, with a ceiling at 6,080 points and a floor at 5,840 points. However, the growing buying momentum has now pushed the index back toward all-time highs. If bullish pressure remains strong through the end of the week, a breakout from this range could pave the way for a more significant upward movement.
MACD Indicator
Both the signal line and the MACD line remain above the neutral level at 0 , adopting a steady upward slope.
The histogram has begun to oscillate slightly above the zero level.
If these conditions persist over the next sessions, bullish momentum could continue in the short term.
Key Levels to Watch:
6,082 points – The most critical resistance level at the moment, corresponding to the previous all-time high. Sustained price action above this level could reinforce the current bullish bias, opening the door to a stronger uptrend.
5,960 points – Nearby support, aligning with the mid-range of the consolidation phase and coinciding with the Ichimoku cloud and the 50- and 100-period moving averages. If price action falls back below this level, it could strengthen selling pressure and delay the possibility of new highs in the short term.
5,840 points – Distant support level, where a pullback to this zone could put the long-term uptrend at risk.
By Julian Pineda, CFA – Market Analyst
SPX Ready to pop? The pressure is buildingSPX Ready to Pop? The Pressure Is Building… | SPX Market Analysis 13 Feb 2025
The market is wound up tighter than a coiled spring, and I’m starting to wonder what will finally trigger the next move.
From a commentary standpoint, this is snooze-worthy—but from a trading standpoint, the Theta burn is quietly adding pennies to our pockets. Even if the market isn’t moving, we’re still getting paid.
Let’s break it down…
📉 SPX is Stuck – But That’s Not a Bad Thing
The market has been compressing into a tighter range, creating a pressure buildup that could snap in either direction. While traders watching for big swings are frustrated, we’re happily raking in Theta decay.
💰 Theta Burn – The Secret to Profiting in a Boring Market
In choppy or sideways conditions, directional traders get wrecked
But income traders get paid to wait, thanks to option decay
Every day that passes without a move = profits added to our pockets
📌 Overnight Futures – Still No Directional Clues
The futures market isn’t offering any strong signals 📉📈
Price compression continues, across all indexes
🚀 What Happens Next?
Eventually, this coiled spring will snap—we just don’t know when
The key is patience—we don’t need a big move to win
Whether SPX explodes up or down, we’ll be ready 💡
📌 Final Takeaway?
Sideways markets may be boring to talk about, but for income traders, they’re a steady payday. The key is knowing how to extract profits while waiting for the breakout.
Fun Fact:
📢 Did you know? The longest sideways market in history lasted nearly 17 years (1966–1982).
💡 The Lesson? Even in extended choppy periods, there are ways to profit—as long as you have the right strategy.
Bad CPI, Perfect Setup Opportunity for the S&P500Today’s CPI was really bad: 3% vs. 2.9%. Bad for markets, good for the Dollar, and everything got slapped - S&P 500 included.
But honestly, moments like this are often where the magic happens. Zoom in, and you’ll notice that the Monday Low is still sitting there untouched. In a few minutes, the New York Stock Exchange opens. What am I hoping for? A sweep of that Low, followed by a quick reversal and a push to the upside.
On the 1-hour chart, the RSI is already in oversold territory. A sell-off at the open would be the perfect entry, aiming for a 1:3 risk-reward ratio. If the market plays along, this could get real interesting real fast.
🔹 Asset: S&P 500
🔹 Timeframe: 1H
🔹 Entry: 5974.60
🔹 Stop: 5936.90
🔹 Target(s): 6085.86
Sideways Markets? Heres why Im still getting paidSideways Market? Here’s Why I’m Still Getting Paid | SPX Market Analysis 12 Feb 2025
The markets may be moving like molasses, but that’s no problem when you’re getting paid to wait. While others are watching charts in frustration, our Theta decay is quietly dripping profits into our accounts. No rush, no panic—just letting the market do its thing while we collect.
Let’s break it down…
---
SPX Deeper Dive Analysis:
📉 Markets Are Moving Sideways—And That’s OK
SPX is stuck in a range, drifting aimlessly while traders wait for direction. But unlike those who need a big breakout to make money, we’re already profiting while standing still.
💰 Theta Decay – The Power of Getting Paid to Wait
While the market meanders, options lose value
That lost value turns into profits for our income trades
Instead of hoping for a massive move, we collect steady gains
📌 The Current Market View
We still anticipate a move from the upper range to the lower range 📉
No need to force trades—our edge is patience
If SPX moves, great. If not, we still win
🔑 Why Income Trading Wins in a Sideways Market
Unlike traditional trading methods where:
❌ You need a strong directional move to profit
❌ You rely on timing the market perfectly
❌ You risk getting stopped out too soon
We simply:
✅ Let Theta decay work in our favour
✅ Profit even when the market goes nowhere
✅ Have time on our side—no need for constant action
📌 Final Takeaway?
The market may be stuck, but profits aren’t. Theta is working, our positions are intact, and there’s no stress—just steady gains.
---
Fun Fact:
📢 Did you know? The S&P 500 has spent nearly 80% of its time trading sideways rather than trending up or down.
💡 The Lesson? The market isn’t always moving—but smart traders don’t need it to. That’s why income trading thrives when others struggle.
Nightly $SPX / $SPY Scenarios for 2.12.2025🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News:
🇺🇸🏛️ Fed Chair Powell Testifies: At 10:00 AM ET, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will testify before Congress, providing insights into the economic outlook and potential monetary policy adjustments.
📊 Key Data Releases:
📅 Wednesday, Feb 12:
🏢 Consumer Price Index (CPI) (8:30 AM ET):
Forecast: +0.3% MoM; Previous: +0.4% MoM.
📈 Core CPI (8:30 AM ET):
Forecast: +0.3% MoM; Previous: +0.2% MoM.
📉 CPI (YoY) (Jan):
Expected 2.9%; Previous 2.9%.
📉 Core CPI (YoY) (Jan):
Expected 3.1%; Previous 3.2%.
🛢️ EIA Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 AM ET):
Previous: +8.664M.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPX #SPY #daytrading #charting #trendtao
There's a storm on my chartHi everyone,
I see two possibilities.
Blue or Brown ? (we have to see!)
Technical Section:
The Blue Path: S&P500 is completing the fifth wave of the 5th wave of a five-wave rally.
Wave 5 = 2.618 x length of Wave 1
Wave 3 = 2 x length of Wave 1
Target = 5790
The Brown Path: S&P500 is completing the fifth wave of the 3rd wave of a five-wave rally.
Wave 3 = 4.236 x length of Wave 1
Target = 6440
Bearish Bias Locked int - Now We wait for the dropBearish Bias Locked In – Now We Wait for the Drop | SPX Market Analysis 11 Feb 2025
The bullish chapter is closed, and our focus is now entirely bearish as we eye a move toward 5980. Futures are already pointing lower, teasing a 20-point drop at the open.
Will we get the full range move, or will SPX keep stalling?
Either way, we’re locked and loaded—now, we wait for the market to tip its hand.
---
SPX Deeper Dive Analysis:
📉 Bearish Positions Locked In
SPX is now fully bearish, with bullish trades wrapped up profitably or at break-even following the bear turn signal. This continues to aligns perfectly with our 6 money-making patterns, where we expect a move from range highs to range lows.
📊 Futures Hint at a Lower Open
Overnight futures are already down 20 points, suggesting:
✅ A weaker SPX open
✅ A potential move toward 5980
✅ Confirmation that momentum is shifting lower
🔍 ADD Still Has Room to Fall
Yesterday’s ADD reading hit the upper bullish extreme
That leaves plenty of downside wiggle room
If ADD pushes lower, indexes could also follow through
⏳ For Now, It’s a Waiting Game
The bearish setup is in place
Price action will dictate the next move
A clean range move to 5980 remains the primary target
🚀 Key Takeaway? The market is aligning with expectations, but we still need follow-through to lock in profits.
Fun Fact:
📢 Did you know? In 1987, the Dow dropped 22.6% in a single day—the biggest percentage crash in history. That’s the equivalent of the S&P 500 dropping over 1,000 points today!
💡 The Lesson? Even in structured markets, major moves can happen fast. This is why having a rule-based trading system keeps you ahead of the chaos.
S&P500 consolidation is over. Massive rally starting.The S&P500 index (SPX) has been trading within a Channel Up pattern since the October 27 2023 Low. For almost the past 30 days it has been ranging sideways on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). The index is no stranger to this at all.
On the contrary, this is a common Consolidation Phase that SPX has been through another 3 times within the Channel Up. As you can see, every time the index recovered from a Bearish Leg below the 1D MA50, it consolidated for around 1 month above the 1D MA50 and then resumed the Bullish Leg to complete at least a +15% rise from the bottom.
The 1D RSI sequences among all those fractals (including today's) are identical. As a result, we are preparing for a massive rally any day now, expecting a new +15% Bullish Leg to reach at least 6600.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. **
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
💸💸💸💸💸💸
👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Nightly $SPX / $SPY Scenarios for 2.11.2025🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News:
🇺🇸🏛️ Fed Chair Powell Testifies – Insights into economic outlook and monetary policy.
📊 Key Data Releases:
🏢 NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (6:00 AM ET): Previous: 102.7.
📈 Redbook Index (8:55 AM ET): Previous: +5.7% YoY.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPX #SPY #daytrading #charting #trendtao
Sector Rotation Analysis: A Practical Tutorial Using TradingViewSector Rotation Analysis: A Practical Tutorial Using TradingView
Overview
Sector rotation is an investment strategy that involves reallocating capital among different sectors of the economy to align with their performance during various phases of the economic cycle. While academic studies have shown that sector rotation does not consistently outperform the market after accounting for transaction costs, it remains a popular framework for portfolio management.
This tutorial provides a step-by-step guide to analyzing sector rotation and identifying leading and lagging sectors using TradingView .
Understanding Sector Rotation and Economic Cycles
The economy moves through distinct phases, and each phase tends to favor specific sectors:
1. Expansion : Rapid economic growth with rising consumer confidence.
- Leading Sectors: Technology AMEX:XLK , Consumer Discretionary AMEX:XLY , Industrials AMEX:XLI
2. Peak : Growth slows, and inflation may rise.
- Leading Sectors: Energy AMEX:XLE , Materials AMEX:XLB
3. Contraction : Economic activity declines, and unemployment rises.
- Leading Sectors: Utilities AMEX:XLU , Healthcare AMEX:XLV , Consumer Staples AMEX:XLP
4. Trough : The economy begins recovering from a recession.
- Leading Sectors: Financials AMEX:XLF , Real Estate AMEX:XLRE
Step 1: Use TradingView to Monitor Economic Indicators
Economic indicators provide context for sector performance:
GDP Growth : Signals expansion or contraction.
Interest Rates : Rising rates favor Financials; falling rates benefit Real Estate.
Inflation : High inflation supports Energy and Materials.
Step 2: Analyze Sector Performance Using Relative Strength
Relative Strength RS compares a sector's performance against a benchmark index like the
SP:SPX This helps identify whether a sector is leading or lagging.
How to Calculate RS in TradingView
Open a chart for a sector TSXV:ETF , such as AMEX:XLK Technology.
Add SP:SPX as a comparison symbol by clicking the Compare ➕ button.
Analyze the RS line:
- If RS trends upward, the sector is outperforming.
- If RS trends downward, the sector is underperforming.
Using Indicators
e.g.: You may add the Sector Relative Strength indicator from TradingView’s public library. This tool ranks multiple sectors by their relative strength against SP:SPX
Additionally, you can use the RS Rating indicator by @Fred6724, which calculates the Relative Strength Rating (1 to 99) of a stock or sector based on its 12-month performance compared to others in a selected index.
Example
In early 2021, during economic recovery, AMEX:XLK 's RS rose above SP:SPX , signaling Technology was leading.
Step 3: Validate Sector Trends with Technical Indicators
Technical indicators can confirm sector momentum and provide entry/exit signals:
Moving Averages
Use 50-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages SMA.
If a sector TSXV:ETF trades above both SMAs, it indicates bullish momentum.
Relative Strength Index RSI
RSI > 70 suggests overbought conditions; <30 indicates oversold conditions.
MACD Moving Average Convergence Divergence
Look for bullish crossovers where the MACD line crosses above the signal line.
Example
During the inflation surge in 2022, AMEX:XLE Energy traded above its 200-day SMA while RSI hovered near 70, confirming strong momentum in the Energy sector.
Step 4: Compare Multiple Sectors Simultaneously
TradingView allows you to overlay multiple ETFs on one chart for direct comparison:
Open AMEX:SPY as your benchmark chart.
Add ETFs like AMEX:XLK , AMEX:XLY , AMEX:XLU , etc., using the Compare tool.
Observe which sectors are trending higher or lower relative to AMEX:SPY
Example
If AMEX:XLK and AMEX:XLY show upward trends while AMEX:XLU remains flat, this indicates cyclical sectors like Technology and Consumer Discretionary are outperforming during an expansion phase.
Step 5: Implement Sector Rotation in Your Portfolio
Once you’ve identified leading sectors:
Allocate more capital to sectors with strong RS and bullish technical indicators.
Reduce exposure to lagging sectors with weak RS or bearish momentum signals.
Example
During post-pandemic recovery in early 2021:
Leading Sectors: Technology AMEX:XLK and Industrials AMEX:XLI
Lagging Sectors: Utilities AMEX:XLU
Investors who rotated into AMEX:XLK and AMEX:XLI outperformed those who remained in defensive sectors like AMEX:XLU
Real-Life Case Studies of Sector Rotation
Case Study 1: Post-Pandemic Recovery
In early 2021, as economies reopened after COVID-19 lockdowns:
Cyclical sectors like Industrials AMEX:XLI and Financials AMEX:XLF outperformed due to increased economic activity.
Defensive sectors like Utilities AMEX:XLU lagged as investors shifted away from safe havens.
Using TradingView’s heatmap feature , investors could have identified strong gains in AMEX:XLI and AMEX:XLF relative to AMEX:SPY
Case Study 2: Inflation Surge in Late 2022
As inflation surged in late 2022:
Energy AMEX:XLE and Materials AMEX:XLB outperformed due to rising commodity prices.
Technology AMEX:XLK underperformed as higher interest rates hurt growth stocks.
By monitoring RS lines for AMEX:XLE and AMEX:XLB on TradingView charts, investors could have rotated into these sectors ahead of broader market gains.
Limitations of Sector Rotation Strategies
Transaction Costs : Frequent rebalancing can erode returns over time.
Market Timing Challenges : Predicting economic cycles accurately is difficult and prone to errors.
False Signal s: Technical indicators like MACD or RSI can produce false positives during volatile markets.
Historical Bias : Backtested strategies often fail when applied to future market conditions.
Conclusion
Sector rotation is a useful framework for aligning investments with macroeconomic trends but should be approached with caution due to its inherent limitations. By leveraging TradingView ’s tools, such as relative strength analysis, heatmaps, and technical indicators, investors can systematically analyze sector performance and make informed decisions about portfolio allocation.
While academic research shows that sector rotation strategies do not consistently outperform simpler approaches like market timing or buy-and-hold strategies, they remain valuable for diversification and risk management when used judiciously.
S&P500: Breaking out towards 6,210.S&P500 is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 54.592, MACD = 11.130, ADX = 24.014) as it is ranging between the 1H MA50 and 1H MA200. This consolidation is taking place near the top of the Channel Down, a pattern almost identical with January's. When that pattern broke to the upside, it almost hit the 1.5 Fibonacci extension. Our short term target is just under this level (TP = 6,210).
## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ##
## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
SPX: cautious on hourly earningsThere has been sort of a mixed mood on financial markets during the previous week. The week started with a positive sentiment, although it was around the level of 5.931 at one short point. The S&P 500 was moving toward the higher grounds for the rest of the week, reaching the highest weekly level on Thursday, at 6.083. Still, after the NFP data were posted, the market turned to the negative sentiment, dropping strongly within the day, finishing the week at the level 6.025. What was the actual problem with the NFP data? The US economy added 143K new jobs, while the market was expecting to see the figure around 170K. This difference is not so huge, so there was no problem. However, the average hourly earnings were the one to spoil the game on the market, considering that they increased by 0,5% above the market estimate of 0,3%. This was the breaking point for investors, where they anticipate that increased earnings will support increased spending in the future period and consequently higher inflation. A higher inflation means that the Fed will hold interest rates at current levels for a longer period of time, which means that investors need to revalue their positions. And, another drop in the US equity markets just happened.
Despite job developments, which are temporary, the investors continue to be concerned about trade tariffs imposed, or planned to be imposed, by the new US Administration. This brings higher sensitivity to equity markets, which will react to any news to this topic in the future period. So, it might be expected that the volatility will continue.
As for quarterly results of the major companies, Amazon shares dropped around 4% after the results. The company had relatively solid quarterly earrings, however, the push in the price was provoked by providing a relatively low guidance to investors regarding companies expectation for Q1 earnings. They provided only an expectation of 5% to 9% growth in revenues in the first quarter, but analysts are noting that this would be the lowest quarterly growth of the company in its history.