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S&P 500 (SPX500)

SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 5-19 : Gap Breakaway In Trend ModeToday's pattern suggests the SPY/QQQ will start with an opening price GAP (downward in this case) and could continue to move into a Breakaway pattern. Given the recent news of a US Credit Downgrade, I'm suggesting all traders prepare for what may become a period of sideways price volatility over the next 3-5+ days. I've highlighted a potential breakdown range on the SPY/QQQ on my charts that I believe acts as a solid confirmation level related to any potential reversal/breakdown in trend. Currently, the trend is still BULLISH. If price falls below my breakdown range (the angled rectangle on my charts) - then I believe price will have broken this upward FLAGGING trend channel and will begin to move downward - targeting lower support levels. This is a critical time for the markets. If we fail to move higher at these levels, we have a long way to go (downward) before we attempt to find any support. Gold and Silver appear to be attempting to break the FLAG HIGH of an Inverted Excess Phase Peak pattern. This could prompt a strong rally phase back above $3300/$33 for Gold/Silver over the next few days. Time will tell how things play out. BTCUSD appears to be REJECTING the recent highs within a consolidation range. If this rejection continues, I see BTCUSD moving downward - trying to reach the $95k (or lower) looking for support. Remember, we are still generally BULLISH and moving upward within the FLAGGING channel. If we do get a breakdown in price over the next few days, it will become clearly evident on the charts and we'll have to begin to change our expectations. Right now - HEDGE. Get Some... #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
2
S&P 500 Falls Following Downgrade of US Credit RatingS&P 500 Falls Following Downgrade of US Credit Rating On Friday, 16 May, after markets had closed, Moody’s Ratings announced a downgrade of the long-term sovereign credit rating of the United States from the highest level of Aaa to Aa1. The key reasons cited by Moody’s were the rising national debt and interest payments, as well as expectations of a further increase in the budget deficit. Notably: → The downgrade was hardly a surprise. A similar move was made by Standard & Poor’s back in 2011, while Fitch Ratings followed suit in August 2023. → The official response may be seen as reassuring for market participants. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent played down concerns about the downgrade in an interview with NBC News, calling credit ratings “lagging indicators” and placing the blame on the previous administration. → Despite the downgrade, Moody’s acknowledged the US dollar’s role as the world’s reserve currency and stated that the United States “retains exceptional credit strengths, such as the size, resilience, and dynamism of its economy.” Stock Market Reaction The announcement triggered a negative market reaction, reflected in falling prices during Monday morning’s opening session. E-mini S&P 500 futures (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) retreated, as indicated by the arrow on the chart, pulling back from the highs reached by Friday’s close. Last week, we pointed out signs of slowing momentum in the S&P 500 rally. Could the decline continue further? Technical Analysis of the S&P 500 Chart By drawing lines A, B, and C through the May rally peaks, we can observe a gradual flattening of the slope — suggesting that the bulls are losing momentum and confidence. The price is currently trading between local lines C and C1, but it is reasonable to assume that the opening of the US session may bring renewed bearish pressure — potentially pushing the price lower, towards the bottom boundary of the broader upward channel (marked in blue). This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:SPXM
by FXOpen
ES1! (S&P500 Mini Futures) - Support Trendline Price Test -DailyES1! (S&P500 Mini Futures) price is currently testing a support trendline around $5900. If several daily Price candles close below $5865 this month, a pullback in the price can occur (rising wedge pattern). Volume has been decreasing in May 2025, compared to March and April. Finance and Technology corporate earnings season has passed. The U.S. government 90-day tariff pause is set to expire in early July (pending trade deal negotiations with other countries). Tariff and trade deal news, breaking news, corporate earnings, government law changes, consumer sentiment, inflation data, the FOMC, and presidential announcements can all affect the prices of stocks and ETFs.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by NoFomoCharts
S&P500 2022 into the Bear Market. Same Pattern 2025In 2022, before the bear market began, we saw the same pattern that we're seeing now: 1. Sine wave pattern 2. Fake recovery 3. Break above the sine wave top 4. Sharp decline Last week, right after the sine wave top was broken, U.S. bonds were downgraded AFTER OFFICIAL MARKET SESSION! It’s no surprise that rating agencies are losing confidence in the U.S. government's ability to repay its debts. Just look at the rising interest payments — if that’s not a wake-up call, I don’t know what is. 😕 I don’t live in the U.S., but I’m genuinely concerned that a collapse — which now seems nearly inevitable — will impact the entire world. Going long in U.S. markets under these technical and fundamental conditions? Putting all your eggs back into that basket? Really? I hope this gives some perspective. Trade safely, trade small, and keep your risks minimal.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Tr8dingN3rd
SPX500 H4 | Falling toward a pullback supportSPX500 is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher. Buy entry is at 5,789.71 which is a pullback support. Stop loss is at 5,630.00 which is a level that lies underneath an overlap support and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. Take profit is at 5,994.08 which is a multi-swing-high resistance. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com/uk): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com/eu): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com/en): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
TRADU:SPX500Long
by Tradu
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of May 16, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook: The S&P 500 Index showed a steady upward trend during this week's trading session, successfully reaching a key target at the Outer Index Rally level of 5955. However, it's important to note the significant downward trend due to letter completion, which could lead to a decline toward the Mean Support level of 5828. Additionally, there is a possibility of further drops to the Mean Support level of 5661. On the other hand, the index may continue to rise from its current level, potentially advancing toward the Inner Currency Rally target set at 6073.
SP:SPX
by TradeSelecter
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 5-16 : Gap Potential PatternToday's pattern suggests the SPY will attempt to GAP at the open. The current price structure suggests the SPY/QQQ are in an upward FLAGGING formation related to a broad Excess Phase Peak pattern. I believe this upward trend will continue until price attempts to break either the upper previous Ultimate High pattern or break the lower channel of the current FLAGGING formation. The wonderful thing about these Excess Phase Peak patterns, and other techniques I'm trying to teach you, is that they provide very clear triggers/directions/opportunities for traders who understand these patterns. Today, I highlight my SPY Bias (Primary & Secondary) trending system that shows the SPY is much weaker than many people believe. Because of this, I believe we are potentially nearing an Exhaustion Peak in the SPY/QQQ - time will tell. The use of my extended Biasing systems and Custom Index charts helps me understand what is taking place behind the SPY/QQQ price action. It's like peaking behind the curtains in terms of what my Custom Indexes and other specialized data can provide. I can see what is really taking place related to price action - moving beyond the simple SPY/QQQ charts. Gold and Silver appear to be setting up an Inverted Excess Phase Peak pattern off a potential Ultimate Low in price. It will be interesting to see how this downward price flag plays out over the next week+. If this pattern holds, we should see the FLAG end and price should rally up into the consolidation phase. Very exciting for metals. Bitcoin, which tends to lead the SPY/QQQ, is stalling near a peak. Keep your eyes on BTCUSD over the weekend as I believe we may be able to identify how the SPY/QQQ will react on Monday by watching what BTCUSD does. Thanks for being patient and understanding my schedule over the past 30+ days. I've had multiple family member visit the hospital over the past 5-6+ weeks and my world has been filled with doctors, hospitals, follow-ups, work, and trying to keep everyone healthy and away from trouble. It appears these issues are starting to get more settled - which means I'll be able to stay more focused on work - instead of driving around everywhere and waiting for appointments. Get some.. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
1
Comprehensive BITCOIN Analysis for the next 7 days - DAILY chart First Off - Sorry for all the lines on the chart but EVERY one is very relevant to what is happening right now. The Dashed Blue Horizontal line is the current ATH line. possible Resistance. The 2.618 Fib extension has not yet been tested as support. This could happen still, at any point till end of month and is around the 98K usd zone. PA has Ranged through the Local rising line of support, as if it no longer existed, which was a little surprising given the strength that PA has still. There maybe some uncertainty in the air. PA is above the neckline of the Cup pattern it printed and, again, it would not be unusual to see PA come back down to test this Neckline as support, which is on that 2.618 Fib extension. The Bold Yellow line is Long Term Support line since 2015, showing that Bitcoin PA is in the Lower side of a Long Term ascending channel, with plenty of room to rise, PA has a lot of inert strength right now, so, we may not see this retest happen. We just have to wait. BUT you can see that Rising dashed line, the extension of the Cup pattern. PA may range across into this and bump into it next week. If it acts as support again, PA will then be pushed into a tight Squeeze against the other rising line of support, with an Apex on the current ATH line. PA ALWAYS REACTS BEFORE THE APEX All that points towards some Volatile times next week if PA remains in this area. The other descending line there is a 618 Fib Circle. You can see that 98% of the Time, PA is effected by these. All this shows us 4 points of resistance, in the same Zone, All Next week and PA will Either Shoot through it with a Big push, Or we may see PA Drop back down. The Big question being, how Far ? We do not want to loose the 2.618 Fib ext at 98K But what else can we look at. ? The RSI DAILY This is still up high in the near Over Bought zone. It can range up here for extended periods but this is something we should be aware of as the possibility of a drop does exist. On the weekly, RSI has room to move higher & the 4 hour is in neutral zone, again with ability to push higher. The MACD DAILY This is once again curling over and about to test the red signal line as support. On a 4 hour chart, the MACD is down on Neutral line, giving it strength to push higher and if that continues, we will see the yellow MACD line bounce off the Red signal line on the Daily chart. Once again, Look at the Histogram and the similarity to the area that the Arrow is pointing at. We could repeat this but on a larger scale. We have to wait and see if this happens. But also note how there was a Visit into a red Histogram ( for 4 days ) before the bigger push and I remind you about what has been said above. So, what else can we look at that may offer some ideas ? The Chart below is the 4 main Crypto Dominance charts by market Cap - 4 hour BTC.D - ETH.D OTHERS.D - USDT.D ( OTHERS = Top 125 Coins MINUS Top 10 by Market Cap) Mid to Low cap We have recently seen a Drop in Bitcoin dominance, giving the ALTS some time to push higher. This is seen with the BTC.D dropping and the ETH.D and OTHERS.D rising Also note how USDT.D Dropped, showing that stable coins were being exchanged for Crypto, And as we see now, we have the possibility of BTC.D being rejected by its 50 SMA ( Red) ETH.D is above its 50 SMA, showing it had a good push and may get support if PA drops OTHERS.D has already fallen below its 50 SMA, showing a brutal sell off, rapid profit taking. That is the world of ALTS. In the last 48 hours, we saw a return for Bitcoin as it rose from a shallow Low in its Range. This was enough to cause a sell off of the ALT coins as we see in the Drop in Others.D ETH however, remains in a range with obvious intention to continue higher if the market allows. Lastly, we can compare Bitcoin to the other Markets Bitcoin - CFD GOLD DXY - S&P500 Bitcoin has performed well. It has reclaimed some position on Gold recently while it climbed alongside the S&P We can also see how BTC climbed while DXY dropped. This highlights some Flaws in using the BTC USD pair to judge the success of BTC but this is explaned better in another post. But in short, If the $ looses Value and your BTC USD pair appears to climb, theg ain is lost as the $ is worth less. Use BTC XAUT pairs. Bitcoin Gold Pair - Historically, GOLD looses little Value by comparison. So when Bitcoin gains against Gold..It is WIN WIN So, in conclusion, we see Bitcoin under some pressure to avoid Lower or sharper Drop in the short tern. The Lower Timeframes show us that BTC has the ability for a Continued Range but with caution. We see ETH ( and larger Alts ) intent on remain in the game now they have had a small glimpse of Gains And we see that Mid and Lower Cap Alts are mostly just money makers providing you play the game right. And that game may have some more time if Bitcoin Stumbles in the next 7 days. And that possibility does exist. Today is crucial in many ways and will set the tone for the following week. There is Financial Data being released by the USA today and if unfavourable, we may see some sharp moves. And ,Longer Term VERY BULLISH - I HOLD AND CONTINUE TO BUY WHEN I CAN ON SPOT ORDERS I hope this helps and I am grateful for comments
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
S&P500 - The bottom we have been waiting for!The S&P500 - TVC:SPX - officially created the bottom: (click chart above to see the in depth analysis👆🏻) This month we officially saw one of the craziest stock market fakeouts of the past decade. With a drop and reversal rally of about +15%, the S&P500 is about to even close with a green monthly candle, which then indicates that the stock market bottom was created. Levels to watch: $120, $250 Keep your long term vision! Philip (BasicTrading)
TVC:SPXLong
by basictradingtv
22
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 5-15 : CRUSH PatternToday's CRUSH pattern could play out as a very big downward price move if the 578-580 level is broken. CRUSH patterns are usually very large-range price bars. Yes, they can be to the upside as well (depending on recent trending). A CRUSH pattern is usually in the opposite direction of recent trends. Thus, I believe today's CRUSH pattern will be to the downside. Although I believe today could be very exciting for traders, I urge all traders move with caution in the early 30min to 60min of trading today. I believe the SPY/QQQ will attempt to establish a range (early trading range), then work to break away from that range. Traders should be very cautious of getting married into a direction/position in early trading. Let the market tell you where it wants to go. Gold and Silver appear to have setup the Ultimate Low overnight. Now, we'll see if metals can move higher throughout the rest of this week and build a base for the next phase higher. BTCUSD seems to have started to roll over (top), but I urge traders to stay cautious of the current upward FLAGGING trend. Until BTCUSD breaks below $96-97k, I would still consider it to be trending upward. Going to be a busy day for me. Stay safe as I'll be on the road most of the morning. GET SOME. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
10
S&P500 Uptrend pause supported at 5925India Trade Deal: Trump claims India offered a zero-tariff trade deal with the U.S., but no official confirmation yet. He also said he told Apple CEO Tim Cook to stop building plants in India, despite Apple shifting production there to reduce reliance on China. Iran Nuclear Talks: Iran may be open to giving up nuclear weapons in exchange for immediate sanctions relief, per NBC. Oil prices fell on speculation this could boost supply. Russia-Ukraine Talks: Peace progress looks unlikely as Putin sent only low-level officials to talks in Turkey. Trump said he might attend “if appropriate,” but downplayed chances. Overall: Trump is emphasizing trade and foreign policy strength, while global tensions continue to shape markets and diplomacy. Key Support and Resistance Levels Resistance Level 1: 5925 Resistance Level 2: 5970 Resistance Level 3: 6000 Support Level 1: 5790 Support Level 2: 5730 Support Level 3: 5685 This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
TRADENATION:US500
by TradeNation
SPX500 H4 | Potential bullish bounceSPX500 is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher. Buy entry is at 5,789.71 which is a pullback support. Stop loss is at 5,630.00 which is a level that lies underneath an overlap support and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. Take profit is at 5,994.08 which is a multi-swing-high resistance. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
TRADU:SPX500Long
by Tradu
Bearish Forecast for the Dow Jones Starting May 15, 2025Bearish Forecast for the Dow Jones Starting May 15, 2025 The Dow Jones Industrial Average is poised to begin a significant decline, potentially as early as today, May 15, 2025, targeting a retest of the price low from April 7, 2025 (~36,611.78), and possibly lower. This movement is driven by renewed trade tensions, disappointing economic data, and bearish market sentiment. 1. Fundamental Factors Driving Potential Decline Fundamental factors provide the macroeconomic and policy-driven rationale for the anticipated downturn in the Dow Jones. 1.1. Renewed Uncertainty in Trade Policy The Dow’s rally on May 12–13, 2025, was fueled by optimism over a temporary U.S.-China tariff reduction agreement (90-day truce) announced after talks in Switzerland on May 11, 2025. However, as of May 15, 2025, investor confidence is faltering due to a lack of progress in ongoing U.S.-China trade negotiations. Trigger for May 15: A Reuters report from May 14, 2025, notes that U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent are meeting with Chinese officials, but no new agreements have been confirmed. If today’s talks fail to deliver positive outcomes or if President Trump escalates tariff rhetoric, the Dow could plummet, as seen in early April when tariffs triggered a 5.5% single-day drop. The Dow, with its heavy weighting of multinational corporations, is particularly vulnerable to trade war fears, which could drive it toward the April 7 low as investors price in higher costs and slower global growth. 1.2. Disappointments in Economic Data CPI Reaction: The April 2025 Consumer Price Index (CPI), released on May 14, 2025, showed inflation at 2.3% annually, below the expected 2.4%. However, the Dow’s decline (-0.6%) on May 14 suggests investors expected a lower figure to support Federal Reserve rate cuts, reflecting skepticism about inflation cooling further. Producer Price Index (PPI) Release on May 15: The PPI for April 2025, due at 8:30 AM ET (2:30 PM CEST) on May 15, 2025, is critical. A higher-than-expected PPI, potentially driven by tariff-related cost pressures, could signal rising consumer prices, reducing hopes for Fed easing and triggering a sell-off. Consensus expects a 0.2% monthly increase; a reading above 0.3% could echo the April market reaction when GDP contraction fears pushed the Dow to 36,611.78. Consumer Sentiment: The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for May 2025, released on May 14, likely showed continued weakness (April: 52.2, a multi-year low). A further decline could heighten concerns about reduced consumer spending, impacting Dow components like Walmart and Home Depot. 1.3. Concerns Over Federal Reserve Policy On May 7, 2025, Fed Chair Jerome Powell cited “elevated uncertainty” due to trade policies, with markets expecting 75 basis points of rate cuts in 2025, starting in July. If today’s PPI or Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET) indicate persistent inflation or economic weakness, rate cut expectations could fade, increasing borrowing costs and pressuring Dow valuations, mirroring the April 7 recession fears. 2. Technical Analysis The Dow’s initial decline in April was approximately -19.00%, with a second impulse of similar magnitude. Technical indicators suggest a bearish setup for May 15, 2025: Current Level: The Dow closed at 42,051.06 on May 14, 2025, down 0.6%, testing support at 42,000. Bearish Signals: A 12-hour timeframe analysis indicates alignment for a decline, with potential bearish candlestick patterns (e.g., bearish engulfing) and overbought RSI (70). A break below 42,000 could target the 200-day moving average (40,500) and the April 7 low of 36,611.78. Price Targets: Retest of April 7, 2025, low: ~36,611.78 Secondary target: ~35,970.70 (based on Fibonacci extensions and prior support zones). 3. Market Sentiment and Behavioral Factors Fragile Optimism: The Dow’s 15% recovery from April lows was driven by trade truce hopes and select stock strength. Bloomberg’s May 14, 2025, report notes Wall Street’s rebound is “showing signs of exhaustion” due to trade risks. The Dow’s May 14 weakness, led by an 18% UnitedHealth drop, could spread if negative news emerges today. Global Correlation: Mixed Asian market performance on May 14 (e.g., Nikkei up 1.43%, India’s Nifty 50 down 1.27%) suggests vulnerability. A lower Asian open on May 15, driven by U.S. declines or trade news, could amplify selling pressure on the Dow. 4. Evidence-Based Framework for the Forecast 4.1. Catalysts for Today’s Decline (May 15, 2025) PPI Data (8:30 AM ET): A PPI reading above 0.3% could signal sticky inflation, reducing Fed rate cut odds and sparking a sell-off. Trade Talk Updates: Negative U.S.-China trade comments (e.g., no Geneva deal) could reignite fears, mirroring April 7. Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET): Claims above 220,000 (vs. prior 211,000) could signal labor market weakness, fueling recession concerns. 4.2. Dow Scenario Expect a wave-like decline with corrections. The Dow could fall below 36,611.78, potentially reaching ~35,970.70 if trade and economic pressures intensify. Extreme caution is advised in 2025. 4.3. Global Scenario for S&P 500 I anticipate a wave-like decline with intermittent corrections. I wouldn’t be surprised if the S&P 500 falls below 4,700, potentially reaching 4,200. Extreme caution is warranted this year. There’s even a theory that, starting in 2025, the U.S. dollar could lose 50% of its purchasing power. Idea: New Screenshot: 4.4. Oil and Geopolitical Outlook I expect oil (Brent) to decline to the $50+/- range, from which an upward trend may begin, potentially tied to future military conflicts: · Europe vs. Russia · India vs. Pakistan · Iran vs. Israel Brent (UKOIL): Natural Gas:
TVC:DJIShort
by SergioRichi
Tariffs Shocked the World, But Look What Happened NextTrump's “Liberation Day” reciprocal tariff announcement triggered a sharp selloff in the S&P 500 on the 2nd April. A classic policy shock! But the market has since clawed back every point. So what now? Let’s break it down by strategy. 🔎 Long-Term Investors: Stay the Course 1) This recovery reinforces one truth: When you own quality businesses, Volatility ≠ Risk. Policy creates opportunity, not exit signals. 2) Stick with great companies, buy on fear, and ignore the noise. The next 10 years won’t be won by panic. ⚡ Momentum Traders: Technical Reversal Delivered 1) S&P 500 bounced above its 30-day MA. With the May 12th’s bullish gap (post temporary tariff pause) confirming the trend shift. 2) This was a textbook momentum setup. But if you didn’t plan for the whipsaw, you missed the edge. 📈 What This Means Now Short-term volatility is likely to continue as tariffs, rates, and elections are all on the table. Watch for pullbacks into structure and keep risk tight as news-driven moves will be fast and brutal. Choose your timeframe. Respect the trend. Don’t confuse noise with signal. The edge now isn’t in prediction — it’s in preparation.
SP:SPX
by JinDao_Tai
SP500: Bearish Forecast for Major Indices Starting May 15, 2025Bearish Forecast for Major Indices Starting May 15, 2025 The S&P 500, Dow Jones, Nikkei 225, and other major indices are poised to begin a significant decline, potentially as early as today, May 15, 2025, targeting a retest of the price lows from April 7, 2025, and possibly lower (S&P 500: ~4,802.20, Dow Jones: ~36,611.78, Nikkei: ~30,340.50). This movement is driven by renewed trade tensions, disappointing economic data, and pervasive bearish market sentiment. 1. Fundamental Factors Driving Potential Decline 1.1. Renewed Uncertainty in Trade Policy · The rally in indices on May 12–13, 2025, was fueled by optimism surrounding a temporary U.S.-China tariff reduction agreement (a 90-day truce) announced after talks in Switzerland on May 11, 2025. However, as of May 15, 2025, investor confidence may be waning due to a lack of tangible progress in ongoing U.S.-China trade negotiations. Trigger for May 15: Recent reports highlight conflicting statements from the Trump administration, with earlier promises of new trade deals (e.g., a U.K. deal on May 8) followed by uncertainty. A Reuters report from May 14, 2025, notes that U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent are meeting with Chinese officials, but no new agreements have been confirmed. If today’s talks yield no positive outcomes or if President Trump escalates rhetoric (e.g., reinstating higher tariffs), markets could plummet, as seen in early April when tariffs triggered a 15% drop in the S&P 500. · Trade war fears disproportionately impact export-heavy indices like the Nikkei, which is sensitive to yen appreciation and U.S.-China tensions, and the Dow Jones, with its significant exposure to multinational corporations. A breakdown in negotiations could drive indices toward the April 7 lows as investors price in higher costs and slower global growth. 1.2. Disappointments in Economic Data · CPI Reaction: The April 2025 Consumer Price Index (CPI), released on May 14, 2025, reported inflation at 2.3% annually, below the expected 2.4%. While initially viewed as positive, markets may have anticipated an even lower figure to justify Federal Reserve rate cuts. The modest S&P 500 gain (+0.7%) and Dow’s decline (-0.6%) on May 14 suggest investor skepticism about further inflation cooling. · Producer Price Index (PPI) Release on May 15: The PPI for April 2025, scheduled for release at 8:30 AM ET (2:30 PM CEST) on May 15, 2025, is a pivotal event. If the PPI indicates persistent wholesale inflation—potentially driven by tariff-related cost pressures—it could signal rising consumer prices ahead, diminishing hopes for Fed policy easing and triggering a sell-off. A higher-than-expected PPI could echo the market’s reaction to mixed economic data in early April, when GDP contraction fears pushed indices lower. · Consumer Sentiment: The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for May 2025, released on May 14, 2025, likely showed continued weakness (April’s reading was 52.2, a multi-year low). If the May figure, reported yesterday, declined further, it could amplify concerns about reduced consumer spending, negatively impacting corporate earnings and pushing indices downward. 1.3. Concerns Over Federal Reserve Policy · On May 7, 2025, Fed Chair Jerome Powell highlighted heightened economic risks, citing “elevated uncertainty” due to trade policies. Markets are pricing in 75 basis points of rate cuts for 2025, with the first cut expected in July. · Trigger for May 15: If today’s PPI data or other economic indicators (e.g., Initial Jobless Claims, also due at 8:30 AM ET) point to persistent inflation or economic weakness, expectations for rate cuts could fade, increasing borrowing costs for companies and pressuring equity valuations. This scenario would mirror April 7, when recession fears and tariff impacts drove the S&P 500 below 5,000. 2. Technical Analysis · The initial impulse move saw a decline of approximately -21.87%, with a second impulse of similar magnitude (marked on the chart). Currently, markets are aligned for a simultaneous decline across asset classes: oil, cryptocurrencies, and major indices like the S&P 500, Dow Jones, Nikkei, and others. · Previous analysis concluded that this is a correction preceding a broader decline in indices, driven by trade wars, geopolitical conflicts, and U.S. economic indicators. I believe a recession is already underway. Price Targets for S&P 500 Decline: ➖ Retest of the April 7, 2025, low: $4,803.00 ➖ Secondary target: $4,716.00 3. Market Sentiment and Behavioral Factors 3.1. Fragile Optimism Post-Rally · The S&P 500’s 22% rally from April lows and the Dow’s 15% recovery were driven by trade truce optimism and strength in technology stocks (e.g., Nvidia, Palantir). However, Bloomberg reported on May 14, 2025, that Wall Street’s rebound is “showing signs of exhaustion” due to trade war risks and fears of an economic slowdown. This fragility could lead to profit-taking today if negative news emerges. · The Dow’s weakness on May 14 (down 0.6% compared to the S&P 500’s 0.7% gain) highlights vulnerabilities in specific sectors (e.g., healthcare following UnitedHealth’s 18% drop), which could spread to broader markets. 3.2. Global Market Correlation · Asian markets, including the Nikkei, exhibited mixed performance on May 14, with China’s CSI 300 up slightly (+0.15%) and India’s Nifty 50 down 1.27%. If Asian markets open lower on May 15 due to overnight U.S. declines or trade-related news, it could create a feedback loop, intensifying global selling pressure. 4. Mini Evidence-Based Framework for the Forecast 4.1. Catalysts for Today’s Decline (May 15, 2025) PPI Data (8:30 AM ET): A higher-than-expected PPI could signal persistent inflation, reducing the likelihood of Fed rate cuts and triggering a sell-off. Consensus anticipates a 0.2% monthly increase; a reading above 0.3% could be bearish. Trade Talk Updates: Negative commentary from U.S. or Chinese officials (e.g., no deal reached in Geneva) could reignite trade war fears, mirroring the April 7 sell-off. Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET): An unexpected rise in claims (e.g., above 220,000 compared to the prior fmadd211,000) could signal labor market weakness, amplifying recession fears. 4.2. Global Scenario for S&P 500 · I anticipate a wave-like decline with intermittent corrections. I wouldn’t be surprised if the S&P 500 falls below 4,700, potentially reaching 4,200. Extreme caution is warranted this year. · There’s even a theory that, starting in 2025, the U.S. dollar could lose 50% of its purchasing power. Idea: 4.3. Oil and Geopolitical Outlook I expect oil (Brent) to decline to the $50+/- range, from which an upward trend may begin, potentially tied to future military conflicts: · Europe vs. Russia · India vs. Pakistan · Iran vs. Israel
VANTAGE:SP500Short
by SergioRichi
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 5-14 : Carryover PatternToday's pattern suggests the SPY/QQQ may attempt to stay somewhat elevated. The Carryover pattern is essentially a pattern saying, "expect more of the same type of trending today". I would suggest the SPY/QQQ are somewhat extended and may pause a bit today. I shared a chart I created back on March 23, 2025 that I found very interesting - showing a big rally in late-April/early-May. If that chart continues to be accurate - it suggests the markets may attempt a reversion move to the downside over the next 20-30+ days. Time will tell if my predictions play out accurately or not. Gold is moving into new BEARISH trending on the GOLD Cycle Patterns. After an extended consolidation phase in metals, this shift in the trend models was going to happen at some point. Now, we need to see if Gold/Silver can hold above recent support or not. Even though I believe Gold/Silver are poised for another big rally, the disruptions related to the global economy and tariffs seems to have taken some of wind out of the sails of the metals rally (for now). Bitcoin continues to lead the SPY/QQQ. Keep an eye on what BTCUSD does over the next 7-15+ days as I believe it will lead the US markets in trending (still). Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
2
S&P 500 Index May Lose Upward MomentumS&P 500 Index May Lose Upward Momentum Yesterday’s inflation data release held no major surprises, as the actual Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures came in close to analysts’ forecasts. According to Forex Factory: → Annual CPI: actual = 2.3%, forecast = 2.4%, previous = 2.4%; → Monthly Core CPI: actual = 0.2%, forecast = 0.3%, previous = 0.1%. Overall, stock indices rose yesterday, but according to media reports, this momentum may begin to slow in the near future: → UBS analysts downgraded their rating on US equities from “attractive” to “neutral” following the recovery from early April lows; → Goldman Sachs analysts believe that the US stock market rally could stall at current levels. In their view, the S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) is likely to reach 5900 over the next three months. Technical Analysis of the E-Mini S&P 500 Chart The chart provides more reasons to suggest that the current pace of growth may begin to slow. Firstly, the index has entered a broad range between 5800 and 6120, where it spent a prolonged period during late 2024 and early 2025. This is a zone (highlighted in purple) where supply and demand previously reached a stable equilibrium — and similar balance could potentially emerge again. Secondly: → the slope of the current upward channel (marked in black) appears excessively steep; → the RSI indicator points to a divergence; → the psychological level of 6000 may act as resistance. Given the above, special attention should be paid to the scenario in which the S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) forms a short-term correction before the end of the month. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:SPXM
by FXOpen