Get started

S&P 500 (SPX500)

SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade : Where's The Deep-V Bottom?I created this video to help illustrate what I believe are nearly perfect setups of multiple Excess Phase Peak Patterns over the past 30+ days in the SPY and QQQ. It is incredible how these patterns continue to form/setup in a broadening sideways price channel. If we didn't know to look for these patterns, we could easily mistake this volatility as some type of longer-term buying opportunity. Remember, if my research is correct, we are going to see an almost immediate reversal of the trend over the next 48 hours - leading to a Deep-V set up in the early few days of next week. I've been wrong before, but I really do believe this Deep-V downward trend is about to happen. I believe some news event over the weekend could send the markets into a minor panic-type selloff. Additionally, I believe the disruptions related to what is happening in DC and other areas may be enough to send the markets searching for support. Recent earnings have not been fantastic, and we are moving into a relatively complacent Q1:2025. So, I still believe we are moving into a broadening "megaphone" price range on the SPY and QQQ. One thing is certain right now: In about 4 to 7 days, we'll know whether my Deep-V base/bottom pattern call (from more than 30 days ago) was accurate. Buckle up, folks. This is when things get really interesting. Get Some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by BradMatheny
SPX500 programmed to have a correction.My analysis is straightforward. On the weekly timeframe, there is a significant bearish divergence on the RSI, indicating that the market is moving in the wrong direction relative to fundamentals. This divergence has been present for six months, so one might assume there’s no reason for a change. The market is in a bubble, but it needs a catalyst to wake up. While I appreciate some of Trump's policies, certain aspects of his approach could crash the market. - Imposing tariffs on most imports might seem like a good idea. Trump aims to make the U.S. a producer of goods rather than an importer. However, the U.S. has lost much of its manufacturing base, engineering expertise, and know-how. China now dominates these areas, making this policy difficult to implement within the short span of a four-year term. Instead, tariffs on all imports would raise prices, worsening inflation. The market's prolonged rise has been largely driven by the Fed's efforts to control inflation. Higher inflation would force the Fed to raise interest rates, spooking the market. Another risk is a potential disagreement between the government and the Fed over policies, which would create uncertainty. I believe that increased inflation, higher prices, and tariffs will ultimately undermine trust in U.S. monetary policies, leading to the opposite of the intended effect. The USD could weaken, and more countries may move away from dollarization (regardless of tariffs, as Trump cannot dictate other nations' monetary policies). The market would likely react negatively, and the bearish divergence would play out, potentially causing a crash lasting at least a year, similar to what happened in January 2022. I hope I’m wrong, but this scenario has a high probability of occurring.
SP:SPXShort
by CryptoNikkoid
3
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade 2-5-25 Update : Rally PatternRight now, the markets continue to struggle to move higher. We are seeing a solid upward price trend, but I'm watching the MNQ and metals for any signs of weakness. At this stage of the market's price action, I'm cautiously waiting for the ROLLOVER to setup. My patterns suggest we move into a Counter-Trend Rally phase tomorrow (which would be a downward trending bar). I believe the end of the trading day may see a very solid Long-Squeeze (trending downward) today. And, as of right now - I'm just sitting on my trades, waiting for the Rollover to happen. I would not suggest taking any big long trades right now unless you are prepared for the risks. Sometimes, this is what trading is all about. Looks like things are going to get very exciting over the next 3-5+ days. GET SOME. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
5
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 2-5-25: Rally PatternFor some reason, the first video I created did now complete the UPLOAD to Tradingview. Don't know why. I waited more than 60 minutes for it to upload, then gave up, saved it, and uploaded it to another location so you could access it. Check my profit for more info. This is a short video highlighting why I believe the markets will rally a bit in early trading and then roll over into a strong downward trend through the end of this week. Gold and Silver should continue to try to rally higher. Bitcoin is about to break downward - targeting 80-85k That is the short update today. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by BradMatheny
6
Wall Street Rallies on Trade Optimism: $SPX Performance Wall Street Rallies on Trade Optimism: S&P 500 Performance Update 📈 1/9 The S&P 500 Index ( SP:SPX ) closed higher today, fueled by optimism surrounding U.S.-China trade negotiations. Energy stocks led the charge, driven by rising oil prices and demand forecasts. 🔋📊 2/9 Energy Sector Surge: Energy stocks played a crucial role in today's SPX gains. Rising global demand and oil price increases are sparking investor confidence. 🚀 Is this trend sustainable? 3/9 Trade Optimism: President Trump's decision to delay tariffs on Canada and Mexico boosted sentiment. However, new U.S. tariffs on China and China's retaliatory measures remain key risks. ⚖️ Trade talks are still a tightrope walk. 4/9 Corporate movers today: PepsiCo and Estée Lauder fell after weak earnings forecasts. 📉 Palantir soared on a strong revenue outlook. 📈 Earnings season continues to shape sector performance! 5/9 Investors now await Alphabet's earnings, set to drop after market close. Tech giants like Alphabet can significantly impact SPX momentum in coming sessions. Will it be a bullish or bearish catalyst? 🕰️ 6/9 Economic Context: The SPX's performance today highlights a market adapting to trade uncertainties. Investors are shifting their focus from immediate trade impacts to longer-term prospects. 💡 7/9 Looking Forward: Alphabet's earnings could either reinforce today's rally or inject new volatility into the market. Tech earnings remain a major influence on overall market sentiment. 🧮 8/9 Today's SPX rally is a reminder of the market's sensitivity to macroeconomic factors—trade policy, sector rotation, and earnings expectations are all in play. Are you positioned for these shifts? 📊 9/9 What’s your market outlook for the SPX this week? Vote now! 🗳️ SPX will continue rising 📈 Expect some volatility 🔄 Bearish pullback ahead 📉
TVC:SPXLong
by DCAChampion
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For Feb 4, 2025: Rally PatternToday's rally pattern will attempt to provide some relief related to the recent breakdown in the SPY. Overnight, the ES/NQ rallied to FILL THE GAP. So, today, I believe the SPY will attempt to rally back above 600-601, then stall out and consolidate. Today may be a "GO GOLFING" day in the markets. I would not advise anyone to get Uber-Long in the markets right now. My research suggests the markets will roll downward near the end of this week - seeking the DEEP-V bottom/base I've predicted near 2-10~2-13. Gold and Silver should attempt another rally phase over the next 3 to 4 days. I expect metals to continue to rally into this expansion phase, and I'm initially targeting $3200 for gold. Bitcoin is trapped in a big Excess Phase Peak pattern that I believe will resolve into a breakdown price trend. The Deep-V and other breakdown patterns, which my cycle research says are pending, will drive Bitcoin downward, possibly targeting the $72k levels again. Today may be a relatively FLAT type of Rally day. So, play cautiously. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by BradMatheny
3
THE SKEWED GAMES. UNDERSTANDING CBOE SKEW INDEX (SKEW)The CBOE Skew Index (SKEW, or "BLACK SWAN" Index) is a financial metric developed by the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) to measure the perceived tail risk in the S&P 500 over a 30-day horizon. Tail risk refers to the probability of extreme market movements, such as significant declines or "black swan" events, which are rare but have severe consequences. Here's a detailed explanation of its role and implications in financial markets: Key Features of the CBOE:SKEW Index Measurement of Tail Risk. The SKEW Index quantifies the likelihood of returns that deviate two or more standard deviations from the mean. It focuses on outlier events, unlike the VIX (Volatility Index), which measures implied volatility around at-the-money (ATM) options. Implied Volatility Skew. The index is derived from the pricing of out-of-the-money (OTM) S&P 500 options. It reflects the market's demand for protection against downside risks, which leads to higher implied volatility for OTM puts compared to calls. Range and Interpretation The SKEW Index typically ranges from 100 to 150. A value near 100 suggests a normal distribution of returns with low perceived tail risk. Higher values (e.g., above 130) indicate increased concern about potential extreme negative events, with heightened demand for protective options. How It Works The SKEW Index is calculated using a portfolio of OTM options on the S&P 500. The methodology involves measuring the slope of implied volatility across different strike prices, capturing how much more expensive OTM puts are relative to calls. This steepness reflects market participants' expectations of asymmetric risks, particularly on the downside. To make a picture clear, we just simply use 125-Day SMA of SKEW Index. Since multi year high has occurred, market turbulence come as usual. Practical Implications Market Sentiment. A rising SKEW Index signals growing fear of extreme downside risks. For example, during periods of economic uncertainty or geopolitical tensions, investors may hedge portfolios more aggressively, driving up the index. Conversely, lower readings suggest calm market conditions with balanced expectations for future returns. Portfolio Management Investors use the SKEW Index as a barometer for hedging costs. High SKEW levels indicate that protecting against tail risks has become more expensive (and probably active). It also helps traders assess whether market pricing aligns with their own risk expectations. Historical Context Historically, spikes in the SKEW Index have preceded major market downturns or volatility events, such as the "Flash Crash" in 2010, Bear market in early 2000s (dot com collapse), WFC in 2007-09, market falls in late 2018 and in 2022. Complement to VIX While both indices measure risk, they address different aspects: VIX captures overall market volatility, while SKEW focuses on asymmetry and extreme event probabilities. Limitations In summary, the CBOE Skew Index provides valuable insights into market participants' perception of tail risks and their willingness to pay for protection against extreme events. It complements other volatility measures like the VIX and serves as a critical tool for risk management and market analysis.
SEducation
by PandorraResearch
SPX500 Will Move Higher! Buy! Here is our detailed technical review for SPX500. Time Frame: 1D Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is approaching a key horizontal level 5,976.37. Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 6,081.10. P.S Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
VANTAGE:SP500Long
by SignalProvider
1
Rate Cuts Coming Up?Simply put, yes , the Fed has appeared to switch its position on the FRED:FEDFUNDS remaining flat and are expecting further rate cuts. So what can we hypothesize the market's reaction will be? Well, you guessed it, the market will probably like the news and cash will flow into "risk-on" assets including crypto assets and, of course, stocks. Furthermore, we can infer that the market is not currently pricing in any rate cuts and we have yet to see a TRUE correction specifically in the TVC:DJI , TVC:NDQ , and the $SP:SPX. The image above shows an example of the 200 EMA significance and how it can be used to buy the dip at the right timing. PLEASE do not try to buy each top and bottom as it's virtually impossible to perfectly time the market. However, it should be suggested that you buy the day after the underlying bounces off the EMA. This is the most effective way to avoid a "fake out" in the trend. When this EMA it touched and rebounded, it could imply that a correction has taken place and that momentary downtrend is about to reverse to continue its previous bull trend. This could look as shown below. Just because it is shown on the chart doesn't make it so. Please keep in mind an equal and opposite possibility, where the EMA is broken through and a Bear market begins. Even though the odds for this are less than likely, the market simply not getting a rate cut could lead to this situation becoming a reality. In this market, nothing is impossible so be ready for everything. In conclusion, prepare for rate cut from not only the Fed, but ECB, and Bank of England as well. With this, we can expect rising markets as cash moves its way into risk assets. However, no one is a visionary, so if the markets don't get what they want (and we all know that it wants rate cuts more than anything), expect a lowering market and prepare to exit positions until a rebound appears reasonable.
SP:SPX
by addatheriver0808
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Feb 3, 2025 Afternoon UpdateWell, it seems everyone did quite well playing my prediction of a breakdown (again) in the markets today. Last week, I continued to warn the markets were very fragile and would likely break downward aggressively. Of course, the political drama (tariffs) helped to move the markets a bit this weekend. But, still, it was great to hear from everyone who made a healthy profit today. GET SOME. I also have been getting questions about the RALLY - RALLY - (counter-trend) RALLY setting up on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday this week. So, I created this video to help you understand why I believe those RALLY days will be rather muted on Wednesday/Thursday and maybe a type of topping pattern on Tuesday. I see the markets as breaking downward (breaking away from the dual Excess Phase Peak patterns), and because of that, I see the markets should attempt to move aggressively downward over the next 15+ days. I don't see any reason for the markets to mount a big rally right now - unless we are talking about a pullback in a downtrend. So, watch this video, pay attention to what I see, and then we'll see how things play out. Go GET SOME. This is a true trader's market. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
Two Daily Gaps attract market for pullbackAlthough S&P500 is within uptrend, recent days has left two clearly visible gaps behind. That means that it is highly possible that SPX will come back to cover those gaps in the near future, before it continue uptrend (if it will). Same picture at NDX chart with two 4H gaps. I take this idea to apply to all markets including crypto. While chances to resume higher timeframe uptrend are valid for Bitcoin, Stock Indices will most probably influence it's short term price action.
TVC:SPX
by WiseAnalyze
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 2-3-25 : Breakaway PatternOn a day like today, where the markets broke down with a huge GAP downward, what can I say except... Just like I predicted. For months I've been warning of the Jan 21-23 Inauguration peak/top that will lead to a Deep-V breakdown on Feb 9-12. And, like clockwork, the markets peaked just after January 23 and rolled downward into the breakdown phase - headed towards my Deep-V base/bottom setup near Feb 9-12. At this point, I'm just going to sit back and collect my profits. You should be doing the same thing today - BOOK those profits. Gold and Silver are moving into an upward CRUSH pattern. It could be very explosive. Bitcoin has broken downward again - just like I predicted. Over the next 30+ days, the markets will enter a very volatile and rotating price phase. Be prepared for wild price rotations. This is a true trader's market. Go get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
11
Trade high probabilities using game theoryAccording to statistics, 95% of traders are losing longterm. Not because they lack skill, but because they involve in high variance (or poor probability) situations. What is game theory? we can define GT with three principles. *People dont want to lose. (hence.. predictable). *People buy good things at good price, or they are profit maximizing. *Everyone is strategic. ** we assume that "nobody can predict future". ** markets respond to feedbacks or signals. Practice: the higher something goes, potential narrows and risk increases. Deeper something falls, "potential" becomes attractive. Once market decides that it will fall -- people assume crash as possibility. People who can buy at a strong trend line - has benefit of having more information. (1) Downtrending VIX highs and accumulating lows. a strong signal about SPX peak, with everyone expecting a market correction before US election. ---> GT in practice. (2) pre-election. Markets be wobbly, pointing to 50-50 probability or risk. Maybe there was fear of NVDA/AAPL high valuations, or the fear due to Trump tariff policy (markets are 6m forward looking) as bond yields were rallying. If we assume statistically, markets boom after elections. We can predict GT in action (or call it market forces). imo that still is a profitable risk. People hate uncertainty and they love guarantees. So the "wobble" was reasonable. (3) VIX higher low.. predictably (GT) sell off follows. Almost as by the book. other way to put it? people maximize potential while minimize loses/risk. There are periods of volatile markets and periods for one directional rallies. P.S. Blue arrows are longterm macd turning points.
ICEUS:NYFANGEducation
by citsvar