S&P 500 Analysis Ahead of the Busiest Week of Earnings SeasonS&P 500 Chart Analysis Ahead of the Busiest Week of Earnings Season
Despite the fact that President Trump’s earlier decision to impose tariffs (at higher rates than expected) shook the stock markets, the S&P 500 index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) could still end April without significant losses (currently trading less than 2% below the month’s opening level) or even achieve a positive result.
According to media reports, around 180 S&P 500 companies are expected to release their quarterly earnings this week, including Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Coca-Cola (KO), Eli Lilly (LLY), Meta (META), Microsoft (MSFT), and Chevron (CVX).
The share prices of these major companies — some of the largest by market capitalisation — could have a substantial impact on the S&P 500 index chart (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen), given that their combined weight accounts for approximately a quarter of the index calculation.
Technical Analysis of the S&P 500 Chart
Based on the key price actions marked on the chart, we can identify a descending trend channel for the US stock market, which has been in effect since mid-February.
At the same time, the price has:
→ moved into the upper half of this channel, reaching its upper boundary;
→ found support around the median line (as evidenced by the price action on 21 April).
These are bullish signs, reinforced by the aggressive nature of the rebound from the psychological 5,000-point level, which acted as significant support in the first few days following the tariff announcement. Bears may still see an attractive opportunity to attempt to resume the downward momentum of the S&P 500 index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen), but will the fundamental backdrop support such a move?
From an optimistic perspective, sharp impulses driven by corporate news could lead to a breakout above the upper boundary of the red channel. This would likely be facilitated by important announcements (particularly from senior officials in the US, China, and Europe) regarding de-escalation of the tariff situation.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
S&P 500 (SPX500)
S&P500: Rebound or Bull Trap?Over the past week, the S&P500 weekly chart showed a key technical signal: the formation of a bullish engulfing.
This pattern emerged after several weeks of strong monthly bearish pressure, suggesting a potential reversal attempt or, at the very least, a technical rebound.
Analyzing the key levels, the price reacted inside a major demand area (visible on the monthly timeframe), positioned between 5,450 and 5,500 points.
The reaction from this zone reinforces the validity of the engulfing and suggests the market could now aim for the first resistance targets around 5,600 - 5,650.
Further upside targets are located at 5,837 and 6,023, previously marked as high-confluence zones.
From an institutional positioning perspective, the latest COT Report (April 22, 2025) reveals interesting developments:
Commercials (big players) increased their long contracts by +22,226 units, showing strong interest in upside protection.
Non-Commercials (speculators) also increased their longs (+8,754), but added even more to their shorts (+20,667).
The Net Positioning for Non-Commercials remains negative but has stabilized at less extreme levels compared to March, suggesting a possible phase of accumulation or preparation for a sentiment shift.
📊 The Net Positions chart shows a reduction in net short pressure — a warning sign for those still heavily short.
Summary:
The weekly engulfing is a technical signal not to underestimate.
We are trading within a strong monthly demand zone.
COT data suggests a decrease in bearish pressure, although not yet a full sentiment reversal.
However, caution is necessary: a firm break below 5,450 would invalidate the bullish signal and reopen the path toward corrections at 5,200 and 5,000.
Current Strategy:
Slight bullish bias above 5,500.
Short-term target: 5,600 → 5,650.
Next targets: 5,837 and 6,023.
Invalidation level: weekly close below 5,450.
Watching the price action around key resistance levels will be crucial: the market will decide whether this rebound consolidates or becomes just a trap for new buyers.
SPX500 I Bearish Drop Based on the H4 chart analysis, we can see that the price has just reacted off our sell entry at 5522,70, which is an overlap resistance.
Our take profit will be at 5371.29, an overlap support level.
The stop loss will be placed at 5685.38, which is an overlap resistance level.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
S&P 500: Key Levels and Potential ScenariosThis analysis of S&P500 will explore both bullish and bearish scenarios, incorporating key levels and considering possible market and crowd psychology.
Bullish Scenario: Potential Uptrend Resumption
From a bullish perspective, if the S&P 500 maintains a position above the 5482 level, it could suggest a potential end to the current correction and a resumption of the major uptrend. A hold above 5482 might reinforce bullish sentiment, encouraging further buying activity, as traders may view this as confirmation of renewed strength. The index could then potentially retest the 5801 level, where it's possible that the index may encounter resistance on the first attempt. A successful break above 5801 would then open the path towards the 6135 zone, which represents a key upside target.
Bearish Scenario: Potential Retest of Support Zones
Conversely, if the S&P 500 fails to hold above the 5482 support level might trigger increased selling pressure, as traders liquidate positions. The index could then potentially retest the 5092 to 4833 support zone. This zone represents a critical area where buyers may step in, but a break below it would signal further weakness.
Concluding Remarks
In conclusion, the S&P 500's price action around the identified key levels will be crucial in determining its short- to medium-term direction. A sustained hold above 5482 could favor a bullish continuation towards 5801 and potentially 6135, while a break below 5482 might lead to a retest of the 5092 to 4833 support zone.
Will the EUR/USD find support and rally or give up it's run?In this video I go over EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, NVDA & SPX.
With an overall bearish outlook on the U.S. Dollar, I'm watching for support to hold above 1.1200 on the EUR/USD in order to continue the rally.
Although a pullback was expected after an aggressive up move over the span of 3 weeks, this will be interesting with a good amount of economic data set to release beginning on Tuesday.
We'll see if Bulls hold up or if Bears decide to show some strength.
As always, Good Luck & Trade Safe.
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of April 25, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
In this week's trading session, the Index did steady to higher prices, distancing itself from the rendered obsolete Mean Resistance level of 5455 and targeting the next significant mark identified as Outer Index Rally 5550. This trend lays the groundwork for a continued upward movement; however, there is also a considerable risk of a sharp pullback to the Mean Support level of 5370 after reaching the Outer Index Rally at 5550.
Contrariwise, it is essential to acknowledge the possibility of upward momentum continuation resulting in meeting the primary target Outer Index Rally 5550 by challenging the Mean Resistance of 5672 and extending toward additional levels: Mean Resistance 5778 and Outer Index Rally 5945.
$SPELL/USDT Breakout Alert!🚀 $SPELL/USDT Breakout Alert!
SPELL has broken out of a symmetrical triangle on the 4h chart, confirming a strong bullish move!
• Entry: CMP
• TP: 0.0008612
• SL: 0.0005143 for risk management.
Momentum looks after consolidation — eyes on continuation if volume stays strong!
DYOR, NFA
S&P 500 E-mini Futures: Bullish Momentum Meets Key Resistance📈 Technical Analysis: S&P 500 E-mini Futures (ES1!) – April 2025
🚀 Market Structure & Price Action for US500
The daily chart shows the S&P 500 E-mini Futures in a bullish recovery after a significant correction. The recent rally has pushed price back toward previous swing highs, an area likely to contain resting buy-side liquidity. This move suggests that the market is currently in a markup phase, but is now approaching a critical resistance zone where profit-taking and counter-trend activity may emerge.
🧠 Wyckoff Perspective
From a Wyckoff methodology standpoint, the recent price action resembles a classic accumulation-to-markup transition. The sharp selloff in March and early April appears to have formed a selling climax (SC) followed by an automatic rally (AR) and a secondary test (ST). The current advance could be interpreted as a sign of strength (SOS), but the proximity to previous highs raises the risk of an upthrust (UTAD) or a bull trap if supply emerges.
🌊 Liquidity & Potential Pullback
As price trades into the prior highs, it is likely "eating" buy-side liquidity—triggering stops and breakout orders. This process often leads to a liquidity sweep, where price briefly exceeds resistance before reversing as large players offload positions. If the market fails to sustain above these highs, a pullback or even a reversal could be initiated, especially if volume and momentum wane.
🌐 Market Sentiment & Fundamentals
Current sentiment remains cautiously optimistic, with the S&P 500 E-mini trading above 5,500 and recent sessions showing resilience despite mixed earnings and macroeconomic uncertainty. The broader market is supported by expectations of stable Fed policy and robust corporate earnings, but there are persistent concerns about inflation and global growth. According to Markets Insider, the ES futures are up 0.59% recently, reflecting a positive but not euphoric tone. However, as noted by Investing.com, there are signs the market could be setting up for a reversal if bulls fail to maintain momentum.
🛠️ Trade Ideas
🟢 Bullish Scenario: If price breaks and holds above the previous highs with strong volume and closes, consider a long entry targeting the next psychological resistance (e.g., 5,700–5,800). Place stops just below the breakout level to manage risk. This would confirm continued demand and a potential extension of the markup phase.
🔴 Bearish Scenario: If price fails to hold above the highs and forms a reversal pattern (e.g., bearish engulfing, upthrust), look for a short entry targeting the first support zone (e.g., 5,300–5,200). Stops should be placed above the failed breakout. This would align with a Wyckoff upthrust after distribution and a likely liquidity sweep.
⚠️ Disclaimer
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading futures involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Please conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any trading decisions.
Could The Stock Market Crash? - WARNING 🚨MartyBoots here , I have been trading for 17 years and sharing my thoughts on SPX .🚨
🚨 SP:SPX Could It Crash?🚨
Lets look into it deeper, very interesting chart but also a dangerous one. Need to see buyers soon or this is could be worse than people expect. 5-10% drop minimum and extreme bear could drop 40% total🚨
Watch video for more details
Bearish WXY Model Forming at Key Resistance – Caution at the TopSP:SPX just crossed the Monthly High, but the structure resembles a bearish WXY correction, and we’re now approaching critical levels.
🔍 Key Levels to Watch:
5481–5572: Weekly FVG resistance + 61.8% Fib Extension – potential top of the rally.
5293: The 50% retracement from the Apr 20 low – a break below confirms the bearish WXY and opens the door to new lows.
📌 Scenario Outlook:
✅ Bullish case: Room for upside toward 5685–5750, but only if we close above 5572 Weekly to invalidate the FVG.
⚠️ Bearish case: Current price action aligns with divergence (as seen with DJI) + WXY model. Caution advised — rallies may be fading.
💬 Chart attached shows the WXY structure forming with key divergences.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 4-25 : Inside Breakaway patternToday's Pattern is an Inside Breakaway pattern. I suggest this pattern could play a pivotal role in how the markets setup for the May 2 Major Bottom pattern I'm expecting.
You'll see in this video how any move to the upside could present a broadening of the consolidation range - resulting in even bigger price volatility going forward.
Yet, I believe the markets will stall and roll a bit downward/sideways today. Possibly resulting in a move back into the lower consolidation range as we ROLL off resistance.
As I suggested last weekend, I see no reason to assume the markets are "cleared for take-off" yet. Tariffs and political concerns are still driving uncertainty.
I think we are seeing Q1 earnings inflate the markets while the fundamental elements of the global markets are still somewhat unsettled.
I urge traders to HEDGE any open trades going into this weekend. If the markets don't make any clear moves today, hedge any positions you hold into next week.
Gold & Silver are showing signs of minor panic selling. I see that as traders wanting to retest the $3300/$33 levels for Gold/Silver.
I still believe Gold/Silver will skyrocket higher. But, probably not going to happen today.
BTCUSD is making an interesting move higher. Potentially invalidating the previous EPP pattern and/or setting up a very broad consolidation range.
It will be interesting to see how BTCUSD continues to trend over the next few months.
Remember, I'm hopefully helping all of you find ways to improve your trading and find better results.
Get some..
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
S&P 500 tests key resistance as trade uncertainty continuesTrump continues to say positive things - just now suggesting that they are very close to a deal with Japan on tariffs. But it is China where the bulk of uncertainty lies. He has been quite upbeat this week, but China continues to push back against the optimism.
European indices extended their gains, buoyed by the previous day’s upbeat mood, while US futures have given up their earlier gains. The shift likely linked to an interesting interview US President Donald Trump gave to Time Magazine.
While Trump claimed Chinese President Xi had personally rung him — and insisted that negotiations with Beijing were progressing — it was his remark that he’d consider “50% tariffs a year from now” to be a success that seemed to spook investors. Unsurprisingly, that struck a more hawkish tone, nudging some traders to lock in profits.
Earlier in the session, risk appetite had been given a lift after reports surfaced that China was weighing tariff exemptions for select US imports. This, combined with upbeat comments from Trump the day before and a solid set of earnings from Alphabet, helped extend the rally in equities.
Gold, meanwhile, gave back some ground — dipping below the $3,300 mark — as safe haven demand cooled in response to the renewed optimism. Yet, beneath the surface, caution remains palpable. Trump’s off-the-cuff comment about 50% tariffs a year from now served as a stark reminder that nothing is set in stone, and that the trade saga is far from over.
As such, while some of the worst risk-off flows may be behind us, it’s far too soon to declare an end to the market turmoil. A period of consolidation — both in equities and gold — may now be on the cards.
Meanwhile the S&P 500 has entered a key area of resistance between 5490 to 5550 area. A bearish trend line also comes into play. A clean break should be positive from a short-term point of view, while a sharp rejection is what the bears would be looking for.
By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
S&P500 INTRADAY resistance at 5510Global Trade & Geopolitics
China may suspend steep tariffs on some U.S. imports, like medical equipment and ethane, to ease pressure on key industries—hinting at a more pragmatic trade stance.
Apple plans to shift most U.S. iPhone production to India by late next year, while Walmart is helping Chinese exporters sell locally—both reflecting efforts to reduce reliance on China.
U.S.-Russia-Ukraine: The U.S. will push for Russia to recognize Ukraine’s right to its own military in any peace deal. However, Trump suggests Ukraine may have to cede some territory. Meanwhile, reduced U.S. aid is increasing Ukraine’s exposure to Russian cyberattacks.
Market Impact:
Watch for shifts in trade-sensitive sectors, supply chain plays (especially in tech), and defense stocks as geopolitical risk evolves.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 5510
Resistance Level 2: 5660
Resistance Level 3: 5790
Support Level 1: 5110
Support Level 2: 4950
Support Level 3: 4815
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
April 25, 2025 - Trump’s Tango, Tech, and Insider DramaHello everyone, it’s April 25, 2025. We’re closing in on Trump’s 100-day mark back in the White House, and if there’s one word to sum up his impact on markets: chaos. With 137 executive orders signed already, he’s turned global markets into a high-stakes rollercoaster though this week saw signs of recovery, confidence remains fragile, and volatility is still running the show.
The main trigger? You guessed it: Trump and his tariff diplomacy. After weeks of U-turns, threats, and NYSE:TWTR meltdowns, he’s finally announced that talks with China have begun. That was enough to send the AMEX:SPY up 2%, pull the CME_MINI:NQ1! out of correction territory (+2.74%), and ignite a 5.63% jump in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, even though it’s still miles below its all-time high.
OANDA:XAUUSD is sitting at $3,332, BLACKBULL:WTI hovers around $63.21, and INDEX:BTCUSD has skyrocketed to $93,200. Not bad for a week that started in total disarray.
Now here’s where things get fishy: US indices started climbing before Trump’s announcement—classic “somebody knew something.” Insider trading? Just your average Thursday. And while Trump claims talks are underway, the Chinese side played coy, denying any ongoing negotiations. Either someone’s lying, or the talks are happening over dim sum in DC.
Beyond geopolitics, NASDAQ:GOOG crushed earnings expectations and added a juicy dividend and GETTEX:70B in buybacks, exploding 6% after-hours. Meanwhile, NASDAQ:INTC flopped—flat profits, poor outlook, and a CEO trying to turn cost-cutting into a growth story. The market wasn’t buying it: down 5.7% after-hours.
NYSE:NOW , though, is living its best life. Strong results, AI momentum, and federal contracts boosted shares 15%. Other names like NASDAQ:PEP , NYSE:PG , and NASDAQ:AAL warned on the future thanks to—you guessed it—political and economic uncertainty.
On the macro front, ECONOMICS:USIJC (US jobless claims) ticked higher, inflation seems to be cooling, and if next week’s PCE and employment data confirm the slowdown, the Fed might just blink and cut rates in May. Market hopes are pinned on Powell holding steady—unless, of course, Trump decides to live-tweet through it.
Futures are up 0.37% ( CME_MINI:ES1! ) this morning, signaling optimism—possibly misplaced—in Trump’s “friendly” overtures toward China. Let’s just say we’re one golf game away from another market tantrum.
Enjoy your weekend, stay alert, and cross your fingers for a quiet Sunday tweet-wise.
S&P500 Index End of Day Trend AnalysisS&P 500 Index Outlook:
The index may experience bearish momentum starting around April 25th or 28th, with key support at 5160. If this level holds and bearish confirmation does not emerge, the bullish trend is expected to continue toward the target of 6109.
Traders should wait for a confirmed short signal before considering bearish positions. Otherwise, the ongoing bullish momentum is likely to persist. The MastersCycle indicator has signaled a buy, with a suggested stop-loss at 5100.
Disclaimer: This is a personal market view. Traders are encouraged to rely on their own technical analysis and always trade with an appropriate stop-loss.
SPX on threshold of bullish breakout? I am cautiously bullishNations may be lining up to kiss Trump's a??? but SPX has come to kiss a confluence of trendline resistance as well as POC
Also markets we approaching month end. You only need to look at the past month ends and see what happens to the price, yes they tend to reverse very often if not always, specially if the prices are below 200 ema as it is now.
I would be watching how the market behaves next week. Soft economic data are pointing to weaker economy and the underlying problem of highly leveraged Hedge Funds remain. I wonder if they begin to deleverage some more at this level.
Any future decline would be a good entry point
$BTC $GOLD Performance% Comparison Chart (Apr '24-Apr '25)Performance% Comparison Chart (Apr '24-Apr '25)...
CRYPTOCAP:BTC surges back, locking in a 42% gain alongside TVC:GOLD over a year! S&P 500 shows life, but #Oil is the big loser, taking the biggest hit with a brutal -26% decline. Let's watch the shifts! But where does the momentum go next?!🤔
CRYPTOCAP:BTC TVC:GOLD SP:SPX MARKETSCOM:OIL
Cheers!
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Update : EPP Flag Setup CompleteI created this video to highlight the current EPP Flag setup in the SPY/ES.
It is my opinion that the market are about ready to ROLL OVER into a downward trend because of this current EPP setup.
Once the FLAG forms (in this case a BULLISH FLAG), the next phase is a BREAKDOWN INTO CONSOLIDATION.
It is my belief the current FLAG will prompt a breakdown in price - moving into a lower consolidation range.
I'm highlighting this EPP pattern to help everyone learn how to use them more efficiently.
Get ready. If I'm right, we're going to see a big move downward over the next 2-4+ days.
Get some...
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade for 4-24 : Carryover PatternToday's Carryover pattern suggests we'll see similar price action today to what we saw yesterday.
We will very likely see a little support in early trading today, followed by a moderate meltdown-type trend.
I'm not expecting much to happen today - but we could get some news or other data that may prompt some type of bigger move in the markets.
Yesterday evening, I shared an "Update" video with everyone. In that video, I highlighted some of my active trades.
I've gotten a few messages from followers asking if I can share more data related to my trades. I'm sorry, but that won't happen in these FREE Plan Your Trade videos.
I shared some of my trades yesterday to highlight how I had moved into a moderate Short/PUT position, trying to stay ahead of the bigger market trend.
In other words, I'm not chasing the nickels. I'm setup to try to profit from the DOLLARS.
Gold and Silver may stay somewhat muted over the next 48 hours. But, I do expect them to try to melt upward.
BTCUSD appears to be setting up a BULL TRAP. I, personally, don't trust this upward price move because it is counter to the EPP price structure. I could be wrong.
But right now, I just don't trust the upside move in BTCUSD, knowing the SPY/QQQ should move into a deeper MAJOR LOW in early May.
Again, these videos are designed to help you build your skills and find your own style of trading.
I really do hope all of you are benefiting from my continued work to deliver these videos.
GET SOME...
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
S&P500 INTRADAY resistance at 5510Stocks are pulling back after Wednesday’s rally, pressured by renewed trade tensions. China stated that no deal talks are underway, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent expressed scepticism over resolving the trade dispute. US futures slipped, the dollar weakened, and gold rose as investors sought safety.
Jefferies strategist Christopher Wood warned that US equities, Treasuries, and the dollar may face further downside, noting the market has likely peaked. Deutsche Bank also trimmed its S&P 500 target, citing the negative impact of ongoing tariffs on US companies.
It’s a packed earnings day: PepsiCo, Procter & Gamble, and American Airlines report before the open, while Alphabet and Intel are set to release results after the close.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 5510
Resistance Level 2: 5660
Resistance Level 3: 5790
Support Level 1: 5110
Support Level 2: 4950
Support Level 3: 4815
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
US500 - Will the stock market go up?!The index is located between the EMA200 and EMA50 on the four-hour timeframe and is trading in its descending channel. If the index moves down towards the specified demand zone, we can look for the next Nasdaq buying positions with an appropriate risk-reward ratio. The channel breakdown and the index entering the supply zone will provide us with its next selling position.
The chief economist at Citigroup has stated that the imposition of tariffs in the United States constitutes a stagflationary shock to the economy. According to his estimates, there is a 40% to 45% chance of a recession. It is expected that GDP will increase in the second quarter, as consumers rush to make purchases ahead of the new tariffs. However, the most significant negative impact on U.S. economic growth is projected to unfold in the second half of the year.
You may have noticed that recent economic statistics are no longer moving markets. The reason is simple: markets are forward-looking and trade on expectations rather than past data. Economic figures reflect what has already occurred, while market pricing focuses on what lies ahead.
At this stage, current data has yet to fully reflect the impact of tariffs and trade tensions. Even if weaker numbers emerge, markets may have already priced in the potential resolution of the trade war and an eventual recovery.
Experienced traders understand that today’s developments are already factored into prices. What matters now is the outlook for the coming months—the real driver of market direction.
Ryan Petersen of Flexport noted yesterday that, three weeks after the U.S.imposed heavy tariffs on Chinese imports, bookings for ocean freight containers have dropped more than 60% industry-wide. He explained that the U.S. imports around $600 billion worth of goods annually from China, with those items valued at approximately $2 trillion at the retail level.
He stated that the first ships carrying goods fully subject to the new tariffs arrived on Monday, and shipping volumes are expected to decline in the coming weeks. However, due to high inventory levels, the impact on the retail sector may be delayed.
Petersen also expressed concern that a potential rollback of tariffs could introduce a new set of challenges. With ships currently being repositioned globally, a sudden wave of new orders could disrupt logistics networks—especially if markets perceive the suspension of tariffs as only temporary.
In my view, no one really knows how this situation will evolve, as a large portion of imports consists of intermediate goods and components used in final products. My guess is that this could lead to a surge in transshipment and even smuggling, though it could just as easily echo the unexpected consequences seen during the COVID era. We are truly venturing into uncharted territory.
Petersen concludes: “This is a strange era for global logistics, as we must simultaneously prepare for the unimaginable—like full U.S. self-sufficiency—while also planning for a return to something closer to normal trade relations.”
GOLD Goes "Buy The Dip", Following 200-hour SMA Major SupportGold prices have experienced significant volatility over the last days, with conflicting reports on the current trend. According to some sources, gold prices have increased, with spot gold reaching $3,500 per troy ounce, new all the history high on Tuesday, April 22, 2025.
The $3,500 milestone has sparked increased interest from investors and market analysts, meaning that Gold spot doubled in price over the past 5 years, 3rd time in history ever.
Despite the short-term volatility, gold has shown a strong performance since the beginning of 2025, with an increase of approximately 30-35% year-to-date. Market analysts remain bullish on gold, with some forecasting prices to reach $ 4'000 per ounce in the near term.
The main 1-hour Gold spot OANDA:XAUUSD graph indicates on 200-hours SMA technical support, with further upside opportunity due to forming on the chart descending triangle (flat bottom/ descending top) breakthrow.
--
Best #GODL wishes,
💖 Your Beloved @PandorraResearch Team