S&P500 INDEX Technical Analysis & Outlook Ahead of Fed DecisionS&P 500 Technical Analysis
The market is approaching a key week with potential volatility driven by the Fed Rate Decision and GDP data. Here's a breakdown of the scenarios:
Bullish Scenario: Continuation of the Uptrend:
Key Levels:
- Breakout Support: 6022
- Pivot Point: 6058
- Resistance Line: 6099 and 6143.
Conditions for Bullish Continuation:
- Price must remain above 6022 (Breakout Support Line).
- Stabilization above the 6099 resistance will confirm upward momentum toward 6143 (next resistance).
- This move would support a continuation of the uptrend toward a new ATH.
Fed Rate Impact:
- If the Fed cuts rates by 25 bps, the market may interpret this as dovish, fueling bullish sentiment and risk appetite.
Bearish Scenario: Continuation of Downtrend:
Key Levels:
- Breakout Support Line: 6022
- First Support: 5971
- Next Supports: 5932 and 5863.
Conditions for Bearish Reversal:
- Price must break and close below 6022 on a 4-hour candle.
- A break below this level opens the door to the next support at 5971.
- Further bearish momentum could drive the price toward the Strong Support Zone around 5863.
Fed Rate Impact:
- If the Fed holds rates steady at 4.75% or signals hawkish intentions (e.g., no future rate cuts), bearish momentum may build due to reduced liquidity expectations.
Trend Outlook:
- Uptrend Continuation: Above 6022 and confirmed by a breakout above 6099.
- Downtrend Continuation: Below 6022, targeting 5971 and lower levels.
Key Summary:
Bullish Confirmation: Hold above 6022 and break above 6099.
Bearish Signal: Break and close below 6022, with lower targets of 5971 and 5932.
Fed & GDP Impact: Monitor Fed decision for rate cuts (bullish) or no change (bearish).
S&P 500 (SPX500)
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Dec 13, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
During the trading session this week, the S&P 500 index has exhibited a consistent steady to a lower trajectory, progressing towards our newly established support target of 6034. There remains the potential for a further decline to the subsequent Outer Index Dip level at 5980. Conversely, a notable upside movement via the previously retested Key Res 6090 level is anticipated, which may facilitate a rally to the Outer Index Rally target of 6123; this development will likely pave the way for the next phase of the bullish trend.
SPX × US10Y: A Signal for Market Tops and Economic Shifts1. Combining Equity Levels and Yield Sensitivity
SPX (S&P 500) reflects equity market strength and investor sentiment. When SPX is rising, it typically indicates optimism or strong earnings growth expectations.
US10Y (10-year Treasury yield) reflects the cost of capital and inflation expectations. Rising yields can signify tightening financial conditions or economic overheating.
When you multiply these two metrics, the product magnifies the impact of simultaneous market exuberance (high SPX) and rising yields (high US10Y). A very high SPX × US10Y value could indicate a market environment where valuations are stretched, and higher yields are increasing the cost of capital—often a precursor to market corrections.
2. Historical Patterns
In prior market tops, both equity valuations (SPX) and yields (US10Y) often peak together before significant corrections:
Dot-Com Bubble (2000): SPX was highly elevated, and rising yields signaled an end to loose monetary conditions.
2007-2008 Financial Crisis: SPX was at record highs, and US10Y yields were climbing, reflecting tighter monetary policy.
2021-2022 Post-Pandemic: SPX hit record highs, and yields started to rise sharply as inflation surged, leading to a market correction.
The SPX × US10Y value tends to peak during these moments, providing a warning signal of market excess.
If you are using the SPX × US10Y (multiplication) instead of division, it can still serve as a market indicator, though the mechanics are slightly different. Here’s why the product of the S&P 500 and the 10-year Treasury yield (SPX × US10Y) might be relevant for predicting market tops:
3. Economic Logic Behind the Indicator
A. Reflects Cost of Capital
Rising US10Y yields increase the discount rate used to value stocks. High SPX × US10Y suggests equities are vulnerable to revaluation if yields continue to rise.
B. Overheating Economy
High SPX × US10Y often coincides with an overheating economy, where inflation pressures push yields higher, while equities are driven by optimism. This imbalance can quickly reverse if monetary tightening occurs.
C. Peak Growth Phase
A peak in the SPX × US10Y value might signal the economy is at the late stage of the business cycle, where growth slows, and equities face headwinds.
4. Why It May Predict Market Tops
Valuation Excess: A high SPX × US10Y product reflects elevated valuations combined with tightening financial conditions.
Transition to Risk-Off Environment: Rising yields make bonds more attractive relative to stocks, potentially triggering equity outflows.
Fed Policy Influence: If yields are rising due to Federal Reserve tightening, equity markets often react negatively as borrowing costs rise and liquidity is withdrawn.
S&P Head and Shoulders by January - Knees and Toes by February?The S&P 500 has recently formed a solid left shoulder and is now halfway through developing the head of a potential Head and Shoulders reversal pattern and divergence suggest we could form the right ear this week. This classic chart formation is often a sign of an upcoming trend reversal, typically from bullish to bearish. If the current pattern continues to unfold, the index could complete the right shoulder by January, signaling a shift in market sentiment. The key to confirming this reversal will be a break below the neckline, which is the support level formed between the left shoulder and head (aka the pearl necklace). Traders will be watching closely for any signs of weakness in the market as the price approaches this critical level. While the pattern isn't set in stone, the possibility of a bearish trend emerging by early next year is something investors should keep an eye on. If the pattern completes, the S&P could experience a significant pullback, so keep your eyes peeled because it could get bananas. A move above the current zone could cancel out this pattern from forming.
Chance of forming: <50%
SPDR Sectors Rolling Down as Anomaly Event Sets UpSPDR sectors appear to be forming a Head-n-shoulders pattern after the US elections.
It appears the markets are stalling into a congestion phase - possibly leading to my Anomaly breakdown event.
This video will help you understand how the financial and real estate sectors could collapse to deflate the current market trend.
Get some.
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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 12-13 : Carryover In ContertrendToday's pattern is a Carryover in Counter trend mode.
As you'll see in today's video, I'm highlighting many various new features and techniques to help traders understand price movement and context related to trading opportunities.
We need to understand how to target opportunities and how to avoid risks.
I had a long conversation with a subscriber yesterday - he's struggling to understand how to trade efficiently.
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You should be able to trade only 2 to 3 times a day and do very well - if you don't get trapped in trying to WISH a trade into profits.
Remember, trading is unlike anything else you've ever tried. The more time you try to WISH something to happen, the more likely you are taking on excessive risks.
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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 12-12: Breakaway PatternToday's video goes into detail related to the general SPY/QQQ trending and the continued potential for a price Anomaly Event.
It is likely that the markets continue a Santa Rally phase - attempting to push higher throughout the end of 2024 and into 2025.
I want everyone to understand that the anomaly event I keep suggesting may happen is an outlier event. It would be driven by some news, political, financial or other type of market event.
If that event does not happen, then the markets will likely continue to push higher and higher.
So, remember, the markets want to push higher into the typical Santa Rally. My Anomaly event would be a potential outlier event - driving a moderate pullback in price.
Gold and Silver should move into a moderate topping pattern today - possibly pulling downward a big. This would be a goo setup for the next rally phase higher. That rally may come tomorrow or into early next week.
Bitcoin is trapped within a consolidation range. The rally yesterday was nice to see, but right now we are seeing Bitcoin struggle below resistance. So, we still need to be cautious about rolling downward. Yet, the general trend for Bitcoin right now is upward.
Get Some.
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FORECAST UPDATES: Post CPI Results. Did We Get The Bias Right?Wednesday Dec. 11, 2024.
This is the Mid-Week Progress Report. Checking the accuracy of the Weekly Forecast and the Updates video posted yesterday.
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May profits be upon you.
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Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
$JOBY: Strategic Entry into the eVTOL MarketI spend time researching and finding the best entries and setups, so make sure to boost and follow for more.
Joby Aviation, Inc. ( NYSE:JOBY ): Strategic Entry into the eVTOL Market
Trade Setup:
- Entry Price: $6.91
- Stop-Loss: $3.61
- Take-Profit Targets:
- TP1: $12.76
- TP2: $21.08
Company Overview:
Joby Aviation, Inc. is a leading player in the emerging electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft industry. The company focuses on developing zero-emission aircraft to revolutionize urban air mobility. With substantial investments in technology and partnerships, Joby aims to launch commercial operations by 2025.
Earnings Reports:
- In Q3 2024, NYSE:JOBY reported a net loss of **$476.86 million**, as expected for a pre-revenue company heavily investing in research and development.
- Total cash reserves stand at **$1.1 billion**, ensuring sufficient runway for operational and developmental goals.
Valuation Metrics:
- Market Cap: **$6.54 billion**.
- Given its pre-revenue status, traditional valuation metrics like P/E or P/B are not applicable. Instead, the company is valued on its growth potential in the emerging eVTOL market.
Dividends:
- NYSE:JOBY does not pay dividends, prioritizing reinvestment into its development and expansion plans.
Market News:
- Recent announcements include plans to raise **$300 million** through equity sales, strengthening financial resources ahead of the anticipated commercial launch.
- Joby also received its first production airworthiness certificate, a critical milestone toward FAA certification.
Analyst Ratings:
- Analyst consensus: **Moderate Buy**.
- Average price target: **$8.35**, reflecting mixed sentiment due to the stock’s volatility and developmental stage.
Risk/Reward Analysis:
With a stop-loss at **$3.61**, the downside risk is approximately **47.75%**, while the upside potential to TP1 ($12.76) offers a reward of **84.66%**. TP2 at **$21.08** provides an extended reward potential of over **200%**. This setup appeals to long-term investors with high-risk tolerance.
Conclusion:
Joby Aviation represents a compelling opportunity for growth investors looking to capitalize on the eVTOL market's potential. While the stock's volatility and pre-revenue status introduce risk, its significant milestones and industry positioning make it a high-reward prospect.
When the Market’s Call, We Stand Tall. Bull or Bear, Just Ride the Wave!
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Traders should conduct their own due diligence before making investment decisions.
($WW): Strategic Entry into Weight Management SectorI spend time researching and finding the best entries and setups, so make sure to boost and follow for more.
WW International, Inc. ( NASDAQ:WW ): Strategic Entry into Weight Management Sector
WW International, Inc. (WW) is a stock in the USA market. The price is 1.61 USD currently with a change of -0.04000 (-0.02424%) from the previous close. The intraday high is 1.69 USD and the intraday low is 1.555 USD.
Trade Setup:
- Entry Price: $1.29
- Stop-Loss: $0.6800
- Take-Profit Targets:
- TP1: $2.28
- TP2: $3.75
Earnings Reports:
In the second quarter of 2024, WW International reported disappointing results, leading to a 1.9% drop in stock price into record-low territory.
Valuation Metrics:
The company's market capitalization stands at approximately $109.41 million, with a Price-to-Sales Ratio of 0.14, reflecting the market's valuation of the company's sales.
Dividends:
WW International does not currently offer dividends, focusing instead on reinvestment into the company's growth and restructuring efforts.
Market News:
Recent executive changes include the appointment of Felicia DellaFortuna as the new Chief Financial Officer, effective January 1, 2025. Additionally, the company has introduced compounded GLP-1 obesity treatments to its services, aiming to provide accessible and affordable clinical weight management solutions.
Analyst Ratings:
WW International has received a consensus rating of 'Hold,' based on 3 buy ratings, 2 hold ratings, and 1 sell rating.
Risk Management:
Implementing a stop-loss at $0.6800 helps mitigate potential losses, while the take-profit targets at $2.28 and $3.75 offer favorable risk-reward ratios. Given the stock's volatility and recent market developments, strict adherence to these levels is crucial.
When the Market’s Call, We Stand Tall. Bull or Bear, Just Ride the Wave!
*Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Traders should conduct their own due diligence before making investment decisions.*
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade for 12-11: Flat Down PatternToday's pattern suggests the markets will slide downward after the CPI data came in as expected.
I believe the markets are going to roll into an Excess Phase Peak pattern over the next 5+ days - setting up a big potential downward price swing (the Anomaly Event) before the end of 2024.
Gold is moving into a CRUSH pattern today. We may see a very big price move (I suspect higher) today as traders move to hedge weakness and market concerns globally.
Bitcoin recently set a new lower low, showing us that the dominant trend is Bearish.
Bitcoin set up another potential Excess Phase Peak pattern, totaling four current Excess Phase Peak patterns in this broad sideways consolidation range.
The breakout, either to the upside or downside, in Bitcoin could be very explosive.
Remember, we continue to trade into a low liquidity price trend throughout the end of 2024. So stay cautious and stay aware of the risks for the Anomaly Event.
Get some.
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Are we about to confirm a Super-Cycle event in the US Markets?In this week’s update, I’d like to delve into something that I consider probably one of the most important, but in the realm of my career, probably one of the last consequential decisions I will make in my time being affiliated with Markets.
The potential of a Super-cycle topping event.
This next week is my birthday. That got me thinking about my career.
I first became professionally involved in the markets in 1990. But in truth, that story started when I first watched the 1987 movie “Wall Street”, starring Michael Douglas and Charlie Sheen. I remember thinking to myself while watching this movie when it first aired …” that’s what I want to spend my life doing.” Probably not too far and away from many of you reading this, who caught the trading bug. Your origin story probably mimics mine to some extent.
But I hailed from proud Austrian/Spanish descendants who settled in NYC in the 1930’s, and didn’t have much, and at the time, my aspirations seemed like a stretch. I went to college and majored in accounting as originally, I thought I would be a CPA. However, an internship at a big 8 accounting firm in my junior year called that aspiration into question almost immediately. My supervisor at the time commented to me…” you interns should pay us rather than the other way around ”. I assumed he was referring to the aspect that interns only complicate things, make his job harder, and I distinctly remember what a jerk this guy was, and that if the industry is filled with guys like this, I had little desire to join that cast of characters. Did my future entail me becoming this guy? It’s funny how life introduces you to people to guide, or divert you, from your chosen path…but nonetheless, becoming a CPA was a dream that I now felt at odds with. That was devasting for me because I felt I was back to square one…until I caught that movie. Leaving the theater, I was captivated, and so clear-eyed as to what I would spend the rest of my life doing. I simply would not be deterred. I got started at an investment banking firm under the tutelage of a senior advisor in the private placement division. I was fascinated by this transaction because it was (for the most part) a zero-risk proposition. I would inform some of the high-net-worth clientele of the firm that by buying restricted 144-stock prior to the IPO at a massive discount to the pricing date of the IPO, their stock would immediately become eligible for sale on Day 1 and at the opening price. The returns were typically 100% or more, and in a 6–24-month period, depending upon how complex the business was and the interest from the selling syndicate. It got to the point after several years, if the private placement allotment was GETTEX:25M or $50M I could place that entire allotment in a 10-hour work day and with only a handful of phone calls. The largest amount of time that passed was between my initial phone call and finally getting the client on the phone. The previous history of being involved in these transactions was a "no salesmanship on my part" required. The calls went, “I have $5M for private placement how much do you want”? I never heard objections like the retail brokers heard… ”I need to discuss this with my wife. or I’m going through a rough patch and have no discretionary funds.” It was here is my wiring instructions, you hit the firm’s account by COB at 4pm EST and the shares are yours. Fail to follow through on the wire, no problem… but I’ll never call you again ”. It wasn’t long before I was informed that secretaries were instructed if I called…regardless of what my client was involved with, put the call through.
However, what I constantly thought about was how unfair the risk/reward was to all those who never had the chance to participate in these secretive transactions. The ups and downs of the markets had to make sense…and it wasn’t until 2012 that became affiliated with Elliott’s work. Previous to 2012, the technical analytical perspective was mocked as wishful thinking, or voodoo like. The prevailing thought process was the random walk theory, Dow theory, etc…I was a loyal follower of John Murphy (Founder of stockcharts.com) and in truth he turned me on to Elliott Wave Theory. The tenants of EWT made sense to me. They were routed in mathematics, and Fibonacci, and as a former accounting major, I felt were well within my scope of understanding. The by-product of that relationship was the absolute fascination with investor sentiment and the repeating patterns they tend to create, over and over again ("Self Similar" as Elliott put it in his original work). Fast forward 10 years and in 2022 after an exhaustive analytical look at the sum of the price action associated with the SPX500, I realized that the odds we were entering an area of a super-cycle wave (III) top was incredibly high. Now understand the magnitude of this observation of mine. If my analysis was correct, the last super-cycle wave (II) would have been experienced in the late summer of 1932. Even if we get alternation, this will be the trade of a lifetime. Not necessarily to be short the top, but to be amply prepared.
I have discussed this notion with my members for two years so far. Heck, it was the leading reason why I founded EWTDaily.com. If I am right, this will affect every aspect of your financial lives, and by extension, probably your life in general. This week’s update is not to speculate what the causes are, or will be, of such an event. None of us know, and the reasons one could speculatively insert as a cause are adding up each and every month. However, to claim that my members were prepared, is all that matters to me.
S&P 500 Analysis: Bearish Momentum Ahead of CPI ReleaseS&P 500 Technical Analysis
The price dropped as we mentioned in the previous idea from 6058 and still has bearish momentum.
Now, as long as trades below 6058 touch 6022, stability under 6022 supports dropping toward 5971, especially if the CPI released is more than expected, which is 2.7%.
A 4-hour candle should close above 6058 to have a bullish trend until 6099, in the case of realizing CPI results in less than 2.7%.
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 6058
Resistance Levels: 6073, 6099, 6145
Support Levels: 6022, 5971, 5932
Trend Outlook: Downward while below 6058
SPX500 H4 | Falling to pullback supportSPX500 is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 6,020.01 which is a pullback support.
Stop loss is at 5,950.00 which is a level that lies underneath an overlap support and the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level.
Take profit is at 6,102.21 which is a swing-high resistance.
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FORECAST UPDATES: How Are We Doing? Were We Accurate?Tuesday Dec. 10, 2024.
Here are the updates to the Weekly Forex Forecast posted Saturday. We'll see if the forecasts were right on point and working out... or if we were just plain wrong.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
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Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
S&P500 - The Most Important Channel Breakout!S&P500 ( TVC:SPX ) is retesting a crucial breakout area:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
During 2024, the S&P500 rallied more than 25% after we already saw a very bullish year of 2023. However, momentum is always more likely to continue and since the S&P500 is currently retesting a major breakout level, this bullish momentum could lead to a final breakout.
Levels to watch: $6.000
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
S&P Correction, More Downturns ExpectedEven though the price traded slightly higher than the closing price on Friday, we did not see it make another high. Instead, it has started its descent into forming what I expect will be a more moderate retracement before we continue the upward trajectory.
The first swing down, just on the look of it, seems to be at or close to completion. Assuming this is true, the best course of action is to wait for the upcoming intra-correction rally of the B wave. Subsequently, we can look to position an order to take advantage of the second swing down to complete a classical zigzag pattern.
The correction so far has reached the 23.6 level retracement of the previous third wave total advance. Still, we would ideally like to see it travel into at least the 38.2% retracement, which coincides somewhat closely with the ending area of the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree. This is one of the main target areas we look for on the travel of a 4th wave.
I will keep updating as the price and the pattern continue to develop.
Happy Trading :)
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 12-10: Bearish ExhaustionToday's pattern suggests the SPY & QQQ will attempt to trend downward in early trading (trying to find support), then roll into a congestion period finding a Bearish Exhaustion pattern.
As you will see in my charts, I expect the SPY/QQQ to stall over the next 3-5 trading days and then move into a correction period - trending downward before the end of 2024.
Gold and Silver are moving higher as economic data continues to suggest the strong US economy/inflation trends are putting pressure on global markets. This translates into FEAR.
The next big move in Gold/Silver may come before the end of 2024 as well - sending Gold above $2900 and sending Silver above $35.50.
Bitcoin is probably the most interesting chart - setting up a Triple Excess Phase Peak pattern in a broad consolidation range. Currently, the dominant pattern is suggesting a downward price move is very likely. Although, a break above 102k (resistance) could send Bitcoin rallying much higher.
Get ready for some big moves.
Get some.
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Es/SPX Morning Update Dec10thThis week will revolve around one key magnet: 6063 area (megaphone support), and ES has respected it so far. After selling there, bouncing, and now spending 20 hours consolidating, it’s backtesting the December 3rd breakout level.
As of now: 6063 remains support. Buyers holding above keeps 6079 and 6088-93 targets in play. If 6063 fails, expect a dip to 6050-6048.
TIP:
If you need to set up your charts exactly like mine, including all the levels and Fib Channels, here’s how starting from the home page:
**1. Go to TradingView and use the search bar.**
**2. Switch to the “People” tab and type in ESMORG.**
**3. Click on one of my updates.**
**4. Scroll to the bottom-right corner outside of the chart and look for three dots (…).**
**5. Click on those dots and select the option that says “Make it Mine” or “Grab this Chart”.**
This will instantly apply my chart setup to your own TradingView account so all your levels can be precise.
SPY/S&P500: in the mid-term resistance zonePrice has approached the upper border of the mid-term resistance zone: 598-612.
Until price closes bellow 612, I am preparing for the start of a correction to mid-term support: 564-540.
If price moves confidently above 612, than next resistance target is at 635 level.
The macro-structure of the uptrend from 2022 lows is well intact until price holds above 540 level and assumes higher targets for 2025 at 635-640-670 levels.
I wish everyone Merry Christmas and successful and profitable 2025!
Thank you for your attention.