SP500 ES Weekly Recap | ATH Deviation → Pullback or Powell Pump?Overview:
ES made a new all-time high last week, sweeping the previous high with strong momentum.
However, the move ended up being a deviation, and the price quickly reversed — suggesting short-term exhaustion.
Bearish Scenario (Baseline):
🔻 Rejection from ATH
🔻 Possible retracement targets:
12H Swing Low (turquoise line)
Weekly Fair Value Gap (purple zone)
I believe a pullback into those levels could provide bullish continuation setups for new highs. I’ll look for LTF confirmation once price reaches those zones.
Bullish Scenario (Catalyst-Driven):
🚨 If Fed Chair Powell resigns this week (a circulating macro rumor), the market may not wait for retracement.
This could lead to an aggressive breakout, driving ES and risk assets straight into new ATHs again.
Plan:
✅ Watch for LTF confirmation after pullback
✅ Stay open to both scenarios
✅ Focus on HTF bullish structure as long as key levels hold
S&P 500 (SPX500)
Is SP500 / US M2 Money Supply telling us a story?Historically this ratio has inflected from key levels. Last week the upper boundary of what 8 would call a normal range has acted as support. If history rhymes to dot com bubble, this AI bubble can bounce from these levels and see an increase until Q4 2026, then a sharp fall will follow. To the lower boundary of that normal range.
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of July 11, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
During this trading week, the S&P 500 Index has shown a predominantly downward/upward course of action and created a new Key Resistance at 6280. Currently, the index exhibits a bullish bias, with the Outer Index Rally objective set at 6420. However, it is crucial to note that the current price action may cause prices to see in a new light from their current fluctuation to push toward the Mean Support at 6200 before resuming their upward movement.
S&P 500 (CASH500) Short - Head and shoulders H1Potential short on S&P 500.
Risk/reward = 3.4
Entry = 6264.9
Stop loss = 6280.3
TP level 1 = 6221.7 (50%)
TP level 2 = 6200.5 (50%)
Need current candle to close back in range at 10.00 for all variables to be met.
Volume exception applied since current candle is the open of European markets.
Quick take on the S&P500From the very short-term perspective, the SP:SPX is currently stuck in a tight range. Waiting for a little breakout.
Let us know what you think in the comments below.
Thank you.
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SPX500 Bearish Below 6246 – Eyes 6223 and 6195SPX500 Analysis
SPX500 stays under bearish pressure below 6246, targeting 6223 and possibly 6195 if the decline continues.
Recent tariff escalation by President Trump is adding weight to downside momentum across indices.
Pivot: 6246
Support: 6223, 6195, 6143
Resistance: 6268, 6291
S&P500 Bullish continuation developing close to ATHUS Secretary of State Marco Rubio is meeting Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov today at an ASEAN summit, as tensions remain high over the war in Ukraine. President Trump has criticized Putin and pledged more weapons for Ukraine. Meanwhile, Ukrainian allies are meeting in Rome to plan postwar rebuilding.
Trump also announced new tariff plans—50% on Brazil and 20% on the Philippines, though further talks are expected. He said a temporary ceasefire between Israel and Hamas could be close, possibly within weeks.
In business news, X CEO Linda Yaccarino is stepping down, Meta faces a competition warning in France, and Wall Street banks are preparing financing for a $4.25 billion Boots buyout. Nvidia became the first company ever to hit a $4 trillion market value, boosted by strong investor demand.
US Equity Outlook:
Markets may trade mixed. Nvidia’s historic surge could lift tech stocks, but geopolitical tensions and trade uncertainty may limit gains. Investors will watch for more updates on tariffs and global talks.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 6290
Resistance Level 2: 6340
Resistance Level 3: 6400
Support Level 1: 6180
Support Level 2: 6120
Support Level 3: 6070
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
SPX500 Eyes New ATH – Key Levels in PlaySPX500 – Overview
The index remains under bullish pressure, with potential to record a new all-time high (ATH).
As long as the price holds above 6246, the bullish trend is likely to continue toward 6282.
A confirmed 1H close above 6287 could trigger further upside toward 6310 and 6341.
However, a break below 6223 would signal bearish momentum, opening the path toward 6195 and 6143.
Pivot Line: 6282
Resistance: 6310, 6341
Support: 6246, 6223, 6195
Why Ethereum’s Will 10×🚀 Ethereum’s Next 10×: Why bank-grade adoption + the stable-coin avalanche make a moonshot look conservative
Big banks are building on-chain right now. JPMorgan & Bank of America began 2025 pilots for dollar-backed tokens that settle on Ethereum, while Societe Generale just unveiled its USD CoinVertible stable-coin on main-net.
Stable-coins already move more money than Visa + Mastercard combined. $27.6 trillion flowed through stable-coins in 2024—most of it routed over Ethereum block-space.
Ethereum clears four-fifths of that stable-coin volume. More than 80 % of all stable-coin transactions occur on ETH or its L2s, locking in network effects that rivals can’t match.
ETF wall-of-money is already hitting the gate. 2025 Ethereum ETFs posted a record $743 million month of inflows—the strongest vote of institutional confidence to date.
ETH supply keeps shrinking while demand spikes. Post-Merge burn has removed roughly 332 k ETH, flipping issuance negative; base-line inflation is now < –1.3 %/yr.
30 million ETH is locked in staking, slicing liquid float by 25 %. The yield engine tightens supply just as banks and ETFs need inventory.
Real-world assets are going token-native. Tokenized bond issuance jumped 260 % in 2024 to €3 billion, and virtually every pilot settles on ERC-standards.
Layer-2 roll-ups slashed average gas fees to <$4. Cheaper block-space makes day-to-day payments viable, driving still more stable-coin throughput (and fee burn).
User base is exploding toward mass scale. Active ETH wallets hit 127 million—up 22 % YoY—showing that retail, devs, and institutions are onboarding together.
Energy-efficient PoS removes the last ESG roadblock. With > 99 % less energy use than PoW chains, Ethereum checks the sustainability box that banks and asset managers need for wide-open deployment.
Bottom line: when TradFi giants plug directly into Ethereum rails and stable-coins dwarf legacy payment rails, every transfer torches a little more supply. Add the ETF flywheel and a vanishing float, and a 10× move shifts from “moon-boy” to math.
OTHER EXAMPLES
TSLA
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MartyBoots here—trading for 17 years, and I would like to hear YOUR take!
👉 Can Ethereum really 10× from here? Drop your best argument below, hit the 👍 if you learned something, and smash that Follow to stay in the loop on every crypto deep-dive I post.
$COIN Price discovery?I was looking for a deeper pullback on NASDAQ:COIN but it appears to be heading into price discovery!
The pivot at $322 was my target but sentiment must be bullish if investors are impatient! Still... i wouldn't count out another sell off as a bear trap on a poke above the swing high.
Safe trading
SPX500 Awaits Breakout as Trade Talks Fuel Market CautionWall Street Edges Up Amid Tariff Talks & Trade Turbulence
U.S. stock index inched higher on Wednesday as markets remain on edge over President Donald Trump's aggressive tariff stance and the ongoing negotiations with global trade partners. Traders are cautiously watching for clarity, with sentiment shifting quickly on any updates.
📉 SPX500 Technical Outlook
The index continues to consolidate within a narrow range between 6223 and 6246. A confirmed breakout from this zone is needed to define the next directional move.
A break below 6223 would confirm bearish continuation toward 6194, with potential extension to 6143.
A break above 6246 would shift the bias bullish, targeting 6282, followed by 6305.
Key Levels:
Support: 6223 / 6195 / 6143
Resistance: 6282 / 6305
S&P 500 H1 | Falling toward an overlap supportThe S&P 500 (SPX500) is falling towards an overlap support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 6,186.42 which is an overlap support that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss is at 6,130.00 which is a level that lies underneath a swing-low support and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit is at 6,268.39 which is a swing-high resistance.
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S&P Bullish Flag developing supported at 6180Trump Softens Tariff Stance:
Trump said the Aug. 1 tariff deadline isn’t firm, easing fears of an immediate trade war. US equity futures rose on hopes for more negotiation. Japan criticized the planned 25% tariff, calling it “truly regrettable.”
Texas Floods – Trump to Visit:
Over 100 people died in the Texas floods, including 27 children. Trump said he’ll visit the state Friday to support recovery efforts. The news may draw attention to infrastructure and emergency response spending.
Apple Loses AI Chief to Meta:
Apple’s AI lead, Ruoming Pang, is leaving for Meta’s new AI unit. This raises more questions about Apple’s AI strategy, while Meta’s aggressive hiring supports its tech edge.
US Resumes Ukraine Weapons Aid:
Biden will restart weapons shipments to Ukraine, reversing a previous pause. This could support defense stocks, though broader market impact is limited for now.
Takeaway:
Markets welcomed Trump’s trade flexibility, lifting sentiment. Watch tech and industrials as traders react to shifts in AI leadership and trade policy.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 6290
Resistance Level 2: 6340
Resistance Level 3: 6400
Support Level 1: 6180
Support Level 2: 6120
Support Level 3: 6065
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
SPX500 Range-Bound Between 6223–6246 |Breakout Will Define TrendSPX500 – Technical & Fundamental Outlook
The SPX500 is currently trading within a narrow consolidation zone between 6223 and 6246.
A 1H or 4H candle close below 6223 would confirm a bearish breakout, with downside targets at 6191 and 6143.
Conversely, a 1H close above 6246 would signal bullish continuation, potentially driving the price toward the next resistance at 6287, followed by 6305.
Support: 6223 / 6191 / 6143
Resistance: 6287 / 6305
Fundamental Note:
The tariff situation remains a major driver.
Successful negotiations would likely boost bullish sentiment across indices.
Lack of progress may trigger renewed bearish momentum.
Are We Completing the Larger Ending Diagonal Now?The last time I updated followers of my work; I stated that the pattern was advancing, but NOT with confidence, and that it is marked with choppy, overlapping price action that appears to be an ending diagonal. Those sentiments have not changed.
However, what has changed is I was forecasting a more pronounced drop first before getting to new highs. It is now possible; this move higher is completing that move on a more immediate basis. Although I cannot rule out the previous larger ABC... it is more likely once this high completes, it could represent the end of the bull market.
Only the structure of the decline will inform us what is playing out.
I will warn followers that once this more immediate high completes, I am expecting a forceful and swift reversal that will undoubtedly catch most traders off guard.
Best to all,
Chris
Decade-Long Uptrend Holds Strong – SPX Hits Fresh HighsS&P 500 Just Hit a New All-Time High (ATH) 🚀
The index has been in a strong uptrend for over a decade, consistently printing higher highs (HH) and higher lows (HL).
Every major resistance level has flipped into support, classic bull market structure.
Even during corrections, the 33 EMA and 100 EMA have acted like dynamic support zones.
Now that SPX has cleared its previous ATH, the structure remains intact, unless a strong breakdown occurs, momentum is still with the bulls.
SPX500 Holding Bullish Structure – Eyes on 6287 BreakoutSPX500
The price maintains bullish momentum as long as it remains above 6225 and 6246.
Currently, the market is approaching the 6287 resistance level. A confirmed 4H candle close above 6287 is required to validate continuation of the bullish trend toward 6325.
However, a rejection from 6287 may trigger a short-term bearish correction, with potential pullbacks toward 6246 and 6225.
A sustained break below 6225 would shift the momentum to the downside, targeting the 6143 support level.
Pivot Level: 6264
Resistance: 6287 – 6325
Support: 6246 – 6225 – 6143
GOOGLE Count changed, Bullish outlook.I have adjusted NASDAQ:GOOG NASDAQ:GOOGL Elliot wave count with a wave 1 completing a leading diagonal backed up by a deep wave 2 correction into High Volume Node support (HVN). We potentially have another 1-2 with fast drop and recovery to the S1 daily pivot which would make long term outlook extra bullish by extending target.
Wave 3 is underway with a target of the all time hime high HVN for wave 5. The next resistance HVN is $191.
Price above the daily pivot and is continuing upwards after testing as support.
Analysis is invalidated below $162 swing low.
Safe trading
Hellena | SPX500 (4H): SHORT to support area of 6033.Colleagues, I assume that wave “1” completes the upward movement and somewhere around here a major correction ‘2’ should begin, which will consist of waves “ABC” and may continue to the level of 5700. But for now, I think we need to focus on the nearest targets.
I see the support area of 6033 as the first target.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
SPY (S&P500 ETF) - Daily Golden Cross and All-Time-High PriceSPY (S&P500 ETF) price has reached all-time-highs in July 2025, after a SMA Golden Cross printed on the daily chart.
SPY is still in a price uptrend since May 2025, however a higher-low pullback has not occurred for the past two weeks.
Resistance levels: $625, $630, $635, $640.
Support levels: $622, $617, $614, $611.
A significant reversal or bearish candle pattern has not occurred yet on either the daily or weekly charts.
The Stochastic RSI indicator has reached overbought levels, both on the Daily chart and Weekly chart.
Stock market earnings season begins in July 2025, trade deal negotiations and new tariffs are in progress this week. Volatility could increase this month due to these news catalysts.
Nifty Wkly Update: Market Cools Off,But Bulls May Regain ControlNifty closed the week at 25,461, down 176 points from last week's close. It touched a high of 25,669 and a low of 25,331—a clear sign of consolidation and short-term correction.
As I highlighted last week, it was a smart move to book partial profits or trail your stops, especially after the strong upmove. And here we are—a healthy pullback, exactly what we anticipated.
But things are about to get interesting...
Reliance, the heavyweight of Nifty, is turning bullish on the monthly chart—a strong signal for potential upside. As long as Reliance remains bullish, it's wise to focus on bullish opportunities only.
Nifty Outlook for Next Week:
Expected Range: 25,000 – 25,900
Strategy: Buy on dips while Reliance stays strong.
Sentiment: Cautiously bullish
Global Cue: S&P 500 Hits All-Time High!
The S&P 500 closed at a record 6,279, up nearly 100 points from last week. If it breaks above 6,284, we could see a rally toward:
6,376
6,454
6,500
6,568 (key level to watch)
However, a break below 6,177 could pull it back to 6,050/6,040.
My take: S&P 500 is in beast mode, and as it climbs, it’s likely to drag Nifty higher too. The broader market is turning bullish—momentum is shifting in favor of the bulls.
Final Thought:
Bulls are loading their guns, and bears might want to take a nap for the next 10–15 days. The trend is your friend—for now, let the bulls enjoy the ride!