S&P 500 key levels to watch
The S&P 500 has bounced off its earlier lows in the last couple of hours, after dipping to take out liquidity below Friday's low (6011) and key support around 6000. Where do we go from here?
On Friday, the index tumbled sharply to close near the lows. Whether that marked a near-term market top remains to be seen. A downside follow-through would attract selling activity, but the long-term trend remains bullish. The short-term trend line has been broken, which could be a bearish reversal signal, as too could be the bearish engulfing weekly candle.
Given how strong the markets have been in recent months, a correction might be welcomed even by bullish investors as it could create better buying opportunities.
On the daily chart, the key level to watch is 6000—a psychologically significant level. This level has acted as both resistance and support multiple times. A daily close below this level could potentially lead to a decline towards the lower end of the recent range circa 5830, with interim downside target being at 5908. Below that, the 200-day moving average may come into focus if selling pressure continues.
Resistance is seen at 6033 and then 6075, levels that were formerly either support or resistance.
By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
S&P 500 (SPX500)
S&P INTRADAY oversold bounce back? S&P (US500) index pair price action sentiment appears bullish, supported by the longer-term prevailing uptrend. The recent intraday price action appears to be a sideways consolidation after a retest of an all-time high on 19th Feb ‘25.
The key trading level is at the 6007 level, the consolidation price range and also the previous resistance is now a newly formed support zone. A corrective pullback from the current levels and a bullish bounce back from the 6007 level could target the upside resistance at 6057 followed by the 6106 and 6146 levels over the longer timeframe.
Alternatively, a confirmed loss of the 6007 support and a daily close below that level would negate the bullish outlook opening the way for a further retracement and a retest of 5980 support level followed by 5967 and 5918.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 2-24-25 : Breakaway PatternToday's pattern suggests the markets will attempt to make a Breakaway move.
I believe this breakaway will be to the downside after watching the rejection near the 609 level on the SPY play out and the breakdown of the Excess Phase Peak pattern over the past 2+ days.
However, if the breakdown I suggested (above) does not happen, I suggest the markets continue to FLAG SIDEWAYS into a FLAG APEX near the end of this week.
The SPY's trend is such that I see it either breaking down hard over the next 2-3 days (confirming the Excess Phase Peak breakdown) or stalling back into the FLAG formation and reaching the Apex near the end of this week.
That means traders need to prepare for one of two major price events: a continued major breakdown or a consolidation/reversion back to the 605-608 level within a sideways FLAG.
What I expect is a breakdown in price. That seems the most logical. But, after watching the markets continue to flag sideways over the past few weeks, I know the markets can stay illogical for longer than I can try to short this top. lol
Gold and Silver look ready to rally. This could be a huge upward move and very powerful for skilled traders.
BTCUSD looks ready to break downward. And I think a breakdown in Bitcoin would be timed with a breakdown in the SPY/QQQ as well.
This is going to be an interesting week. Start off by letting the markets try to settle today (for the first 10 to 30 minutes). You can't kick the markets to do what you want.
After watching this moderate pullback in pre-market trading, we need to see how the price will attempt to trend.
Get Some.
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S&P500 -Weekly forecast, Technical Analysis & Trading IdeasMidterm forecast:
5677.80 is a major support, while this level is not broken, the Midterm wave will be uptrend.
Technical analysis:
There is a divergence in RSI and price between the peak at 6107.47 on 2024-12-06 and the peak at 6150.07 on 2025-02-19, the probability of uptrend continuation is decreased and the probability of beginning of downtrend is increased.
While the RSI downtrend #1 is not broken, bearish wave in price would continue.
A peak is formed in daily chart at 6150.05 on 02/19/2025, so more losses to support(s) 6031.27, 5875.31, 5777.28 and minimum to Major Support (5677.80) is expected.
Relative strength index (RSI) is 49.
Supports and Resistances:
5568.78
5398.95
5194.10
5039.36
4944.41
4843.23
4662.99
4544.26
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$SPY short term top downside from $521 to $481AMEX:SPY is looking like it put in a short term top here. I originally only thought that we had the potential to fall to $545 or so, but now looking at the chart, I think we have the possibility of falling farther.
The two targets that I'm looking for on the downside are $524.35 and 481.18.
Let's see if they get hit over the coming weeks.
If they hit, it'll be the ultimate buying opp as I think from there, we're likely to see SPY over $700 in the coming year or two.
S&P500 $SPY | SPY’s All-Time High - Where to Next? | Feb23'25S&P500 AMEX:SPY | SPY’s All-Time High - Where to Next? | Feb23'25
AMEX:SPY BUY/LONG ZONE (GREEN): $597.50 - $613.23
AMEX:SPY DO NOT TRADE/DNT ZONE (WHITE): $584.88 - $597.50
AMEX:SPY SELL/SHORT ZONE (RED): $574.00 - $584.88
AMEX:SPY Trends:
AMEX:SPY Weekly Trend: Bullish
AMEX:SPY Daily Trend: Bullish
AMEX:SPY 4H Trend: Bullish
AMEX:SPY 1H Trend: Bearish
AMEX:SPY just reached a new all-time high! How did price get there?
AMEX:SPY experienced a small range between 602.45 – 604.00, followed by bearish momentum, leading to a 3% drop in price. However, bullish momentum quickly stepped in, pushing the price up before continuing downward again. This bearish trend was short-lived and appears to have formed a developing range rather than a sustained downtrend.
Shortly after, price broke back above 597.50, signaling the start of a new bullish trend. SPY then established a ranging pattern between 597.50 - 608.00 before ultimately breaking out to a new all-time high of 613.23. Despite the breakout, price action has now dropped back into the range between 597.50 - 608.00.
Where to next? Will SPY hold its new highs, or is this the start of a reversal?
This is what I would personally look at before entering trades, everything is subject to change on a daily basis and as I analyze different timeframes and ideas.
ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY, NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE!
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$S&P500 macro analysis , market approaching correction °•° $SPXHi 👋🏻 check out my previous analysis ⏰ on SP:SPX macro bullish analysis ⏰
As provided it went up up 🚀 completed my target's 🎯 💯💪🏻 ✅ ✔️
Click on it 👆🏻 just check out each and every time updates ☝🏻 ☺️
•••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••
NOW I was completely 🐻 BEARISH on the market with in upcoming months SP:SPX
📌 Expecting liquidation pump $6500 - $6700
Invalid 🛑 when complete month close above $6700
¹support - $5500 ( 🎯 ¹ )
²support - $5130 ( 🎯 ² )
🎯 3 ... Will be updated based on market conditions by that time ☺️
📍 A wise 🦉 man said - always having patience " is " always gaining only /-
NASDAQ:TSLA ( i accumulate slowly until it cross above $400 )
rest of stocks i will follow index ☝🏻 i will invest based on market conditions ..... ✔️
JP MORGAN: Chart where we should ALWAYS operate!!
On January 15, JP Morgan presented its income statement, recording profits of $14 billion in the fourth quarter of 2024, which represents an increase of 50% compared to the same period of the previous year, and earnings per share were $4.81, compared to $9.3 billion, or $3.04 per share, a year earlier. Its shares had not stopped rising since then until last Thursday, when it began a correction phase.
--> What does it look like technically?
As always, the first thing to analyze is the medium-long term trend in its main time frames (Weekly, Daily, H4), and as can be seen in the table, it is clearly bullish (Bull). It is the chart where we should ALWAYS operate after each price pullback phase. ( AS IS HAPPENING RIGHT NOW ).
The second thing would be the STRENGTH to know if the price is still rising or is in a phase of decline. As we can see in the table, in Weekly and Daily the STRENGTH is bullish ( Bull ), but in H4 it is bearish ( Bear ), that is, the price is in a CORRECTION PHASE.
--> How far could the price fall?
Once we are clear that its TREND is bullish ( Bull ) STABLE and that in H4 the STRENGTH is bearish ( Bear ), that is, in a correction phase, what we would have to wait for is for the STRENGTH to turn bullish ( Bull ) again to end the correction and be able to enter longs again.
Knowing how far the price can fall is impossible because NO ONE KNOWS IT, but we do know the typical retracement zones using Fibonacci and supports and resistances, and so we wait for the price to reach one of them and from there start a new bullish impulse on the way to maximums.
At the moment it has reached the first Fibonacci zone (23.6%), therefore, all that is left is for the FORCE in H4 to turn bullish (Bull), because as long as the FORCE does not turn bullish (Bull), the price could continue to fall.
Important Fibonacci levels to which the price could fall:
38.2%: 261
50%: 255
61.8%: 249
Conclusion: WAIT for the graph to show us bullish FORCE (Bull) in H4 time frame.
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When the FORCE turns bullish (Bull), I will update the analysis with the entry SET UP.
Greetings and good trading.
S&P 500's Big Drop Raises Alarm: Is a Market Correction Looming?◉ Fundamental Rationale:
● US stocks fell sharply on Friday, with major indices like the S&P 500 SP:SPX and Dow Jones Industrial Average TVC:DJI experiencing significant losses.
● The sell-off was triggered by a warning from Walmart NYSE:WMT , which raised concerns about weakening consumer demand, rising costs, or other challenges impacting its business. As a retail giant, Walmart's outlook is seen as a barometer for consumer health.
● The decline coincided with the release of consumer sentiment data, which dropped to a 15-month low, signalling growing pessimism among consumers about the economy.
● The market reacted to fears of inflation, rising interest rates, and the potential for a recession, which could further weigh on corporate earnings and economic growth.
● The sell-off was not limited to retail stocks but reflected broader anxieties about the economy and future market performance.
◉ Technical Observations:
● Following a significant sell-off of nearly 1.7%, the index is expected to find initial support at the trendline.
● If the index breaches this support level, the next strong support zone is anticipated in the range of 5,650 to 5,700.
SPX at a Critical Decision Point: Breakout or Breakdown?The S&P 500 has been respecting this rising channel (green support and red resistance) for an extended period. Currently, price action is testing the mid-range, making this a key level for future movement.
Possible Scenarios:
1️⃣ Bullish Continuation → If SPX holds above the green trendline, we could see a breakout towards the upper resistance (red trendline), targeting 7,000+.
2️⃣ Bearish Breakdown → A loss of the trendline support could trigger a correction, potentially sending price towards 5,500 or lower.
🔍 Watch for:
✔️ Confirmation of support holding (bullish signals).
✔️ Breakdown and retest of the green trendline as resistance (bearish signals).
⚡ Trade Idea:
• Long on bullish confirmation above trendline.
• Short on breakdown + retest of support as resistance.
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Feb 21, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
In the most recent weekly trading session, the S&P 500 surpassed our completed Outer Index Rally threshold of 6120, rendering the Key Resistance at this level obsolete. Nevertheless, following a significant price reversal, the index breached the Mean Support level of 6049 and is approaching the critical support level established at 5995. The index could decline further, potentially reaching the Mean Support level of 5939 and the Key Support at 5827.
Should the index initiate an upward movement from its current position or the Mean Support level of 5995, it may ascend to the newly established Mean Resistance level of 6082, potentially extending toward the Key Resistance level of 6143.
S&P drops 1.5% in worst session of '25S&P (US500) index pair price action sentiment appears bullish, supported by the longer-term prevailing uptrend. The recent intraday price action appears to be a sideways consolidation after retest of all time high on 19th Feb ‘25.
The key trading level is at 5980 level, the consolidation price range and also the previous resistance now newly formed support zone. A corrective pullback from the current levels and a bullish bounce back from the 5980 level could target the upside resistance at 6070 (20 DMA) followed by the 6100 and 6140 levels over the longer timeframe.
Alternatively, a confirmed loss of the 5980 support and a daily close below that level would negate the bullish outlook opening the way for a further retracement and a retest of 5920 support level followed by 5830.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Afternoon Update : BREAKDOWNIf you've followed my research over the past 90+ days - you were ready for this move.
If you were positioned for this breakdown, many of you should have seen decent profits or green in your accounts.
I'm so happy and proud to have helped many of you prepare for this move.
Stay cautious into the close as we may see more selling pressure drive prices lower.
Remember, everything I do is about helping you become a better trader.
Get some.
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S&P drops to test THIS key supportThe US markets wobbled at the start of Friday’s session, with major indices pulling back. However, the outlook isn’t overly bearish yet, as the S&P 500 is testing a key level here around 6075. A bounce into the close is still possible from here, but the bulls need to show and quickly.
Even if the index closes near current levels, it wouldn't necessarily signal the end of the bullish trend. To turn short-term bearish, I would need to see a breakdown below the 6,000 level, which had been a strong support before the recent breakout. If that level fails, it would be a bearish signal, potentially leading to a deeper correction toward the long-term trendline or even the 200-day moving average.
For now, the focus remains on short-term support and resistance levels. The 6075 level, marking the high of the hammer candle from last Wednesday, is a key short-term support level where the 21-day exponential moving average also converges. Should the S&P 500 experience a deeper pullback, this will be the first major test for the bulls.
On the upside, 6100 is the level I am watching, which acted as resistance in December and January before breaking last week, and now we are back below it slightly. Beyond this level, there isn’t much immediate resistance until this week’s all-time high of 6148.
By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 2-21 : Top Pattern Counter TrendToday's Top pattern in Counter-Trend mode suggests the markets will attempt to move downward, seeking a new support level, then find a base and attempt to roll a bit higher.
I don't expect a big breakdown to take place today, but the YM is already struggling to maintain support - so we may see the ES/NQ break downward if the major markets continue to weaken throughout the day.
I do expect the markets to move into my Major Bottom pattern over the next 3-5+ trading days. So, overall, I expect the markets to reject these recent highs and attempt to move downward.
Gold and Silver should continue to rally with Gold trying to break above $3k and silver trying to break above $35.
Bitcoin is moving into an early stage Excess Phase Peak flagging formation. This should prompt a fairly solid rally phase for Bitcoin over the next few days/weeks.
If my longer-term research is correct, the recent new highs will be rejected and price will roll into a double-bottom type of setup between now and the end of March 2025.
I suspect traders are not prepared for this move and will continue to try to BUY any dip they see over the next 30+ days.
My only advice is to play the short-term trends and avoid position or swing trading too heavily.
The markets are going to become very volatile over the next 30+ days.
Get some.
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SP500 | Pivot Zone Retest – Will the Support Hold?S&P 500 Analysis | February 21, 2025
The price is currently consolidating within the pivot zone (6,102 - 6,143), which is acting as a key level.
🔹 A break below 6,102 will confirm a bearish move toward 6,031 and 5,979, continuing the downward trend.
🔹 If the price stabilizes above 6,143, we may see an attempt to break toward 6,168 and 6,224 as the next resistance zone.
Key Levels:
Pivot Line: 6128
Resistance: 6143 - 6168 - 6224
Support: 6102 - 6079 - 6031 -
S&P 500 Faces Rejection at Key Resistance?📉 False Breakout or Consolidation?
S&P 500 hit 6,129 but failed to hold above it, retreating to 6,090 (-0.75%).
This level marks a key resistance zone, with sellers stepping in to cap gains.
🔍 Key Technical Levels:
Resistance:
6,129 → Previous high, acting as a short-term ceiling.
Support:
6,018 (50-day EMA) → First area bulls want to defend.
5,900 → Stronger structural support if momentum weakens.
📊 Momentum Check:
RSI at 54.86 → Neutral, room for both upside and downside.
Price remains above the 50-day EMA, keeping the uptrend intact for now.
🚀 What’s Next?
Bulls need a decisive close above 6,129 to confirm a breakout.
A rejection here could trigger consolidation or a pullback toward the 50-day EMA.
Watching for either a breakout confirmation or a deeper retest of support levels.
-MW
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 2-20 : Rotation PatternSorry for my delay this morning. Everything is fine over here - just a bit hectic this morning, and I had to drive my son to his work at 530am - which interrupted my plans.
OK, so here we go.
This video helps to organize my analysis/thinking into more clearly presented data for my followers. I use the Fibonacci Price Theory as a basis for all my analysis. On top of that, I use other techniques (anchor bars, my SPY Cycle Patterns, and my custom indexes) to help identify when and where opportunities exist for the best trades.
I've been getting comments related to my labeling these videos as Bullish or Bearish which may go against the primary trend direction presented on the charts. So, now I've added a TEXT LABEL that tells you what every chart is doing on a Short, Intermediate, and Long-term basis.
This will help all of you follow my analysis/thinking going forward (I hope).
Today's Rotation Pattern suggests the markets will slide into a sideways price rotation phase.
This rotation could be a stalling pattern after the recent rally to new ATHs.
I'm still very cautious of a breakdown/pullback in trend after this move higher. As I keep saying, I don't believe the markets have sufficient momentum to continue a massive rally phase. And I really believe this new ATH level is a BULL TRAP - setting up longs to jump into this rally mode before a bigger pullback/breakdown takes place.
Gold and Silver are struggling to move higher with a fairly broad rotating range - but they are still pushing higher.
I believe Gold and Silver will make a big move higher over the next 30+ days. So, be prepared for volatility - but stick with long trades for metals as I believe Gold will rally to levels above $3100 very quickly.
Bitcoin could be shifting into a new Excess Phase Peak pattern off recent lows. The FPT trends for Bitcoin are still BEARISH, but we are starting to see a base setup that may become a new Excess Phase Peak low.
Watch this video and please comment if you have any questions.
Again, sorry for my delay this morning.
Get some..
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Are Trump’s Tariffs More Bark Than Bite? What Markets Are SayingThe heated tariff drama is reverberating across global markets with a different impact depending on the region and the asset itself. Some markets, previously considered highly sensitive to extra tax charges, are actually doing better than the dominant stocks on Wall Street. Or maybe that’s just the calm before the storm? Let’s find out.
🌏 Are Europe's Stocks Great Again?
European stocks are leaving Wall Street equities in the dust, contrary to investor expectations ( contrarians, hat tip to you ). Since Donald Trump officially stepped into the top job in American politics (and started the whole tariff narrative) the Europe-wide Stoxx 600 index SXXP has gained roughly 6% to date. Its US counterpart, the S&P 500 SPX is up about 2.5% over the same time span.
Europe’s start-of-year spectacle is so good it prompted Bank of America analysts to dig into the archives and realize this is the old continent’s best opening since the 1980s. That is, while European countries struggle to power up their economies and the European Central Bank is dropping interest rates fast .
The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite IXIC has fallen out of favor and is languishing around with a 2.2% increase since Trump took office. Moreover, the elite club called the Magnificent Seven is barely getting by. With the exception of Meta META , which is up more than 20% this year, all the others are either underwater or head above the water.
By the looks of it, Trump is gradually rolling out his punishing tariffs but European investors don’t seem too scared. Earlier this week, the US President revealed his intentions to slap the auto industry with a hefty 25% tariff starting April 2. Drugs and chips got picked on, too, with levies in the same neighborhood.
The auto space in Europe is bound to feel the weight of that auto tariff decision. Currently, Europe’s car manufacturers are taxed with a 2.5% levy on their way to the US. In the other direction, however, the US is obligated to pay a 10% duty when it imports cars into Europe.
The proposed auto tariffs knocked Asia’s automaker stocks during the Asian session on Thursday. The Nikkei 225 index NI225 was trading almost 2% lower with the auto sector dragging the broad performance.
👀 What’s Happening Elsewhere?
Gold XAUUSD is apparently the biggest winner of the tariff threat. As long as it doesn’t get slapped with one. The yellow metal has skyrocketed to levels near $3,000 with a Thursday session high of $2,955 per ounce, breaking its record made earlier in the week . What a bonanza for gold bugs as their main asset is up 15% since mid-December with no corrections and no signs of slowdown.
The US dollar has been taking blow after blow, giving rival currencies some much-needed reprieve . The dollar index DXY , measuring the buck’s strength against six forex rivals, is down about 3% from its two-year peak in early January.
Bitcoin BTCUSD , the fire-breathing volatility dragon, has actually been pretty tamed up as Trump’s crypto working group has stayed mostly tight-lipped over the prospects of crypto-friendly legislation. Prices of the orange coin celebrated inauguration day with an all-time record but have slipped 11% since then to dive back under $100,000.
Against that backdrop, what are you loading up on? Are you stacking up some European shares and shunning their US peers? Or you’re after that OG token under $100,000? Let us know in the comment section!