Interesting facts of the week: What to expect next?Hello traders and investors!
The past week brought several interesting events that may impact the situation's development in the coming days.
The U.S. Dollar Index has reached the upper boundary of its range on the weekly timeframe at 106.952. There might be an attempt to reverse the long trend, with the idea of executing the seller’s vector within the range on the weekly timeframe (potential targets are 99.807 and 99.099).
The Euro against the Dollar has reached the lower boundary of its range on the weekly timeframe at 1.04485. There might be an attempt to reverse the short trend, with the idea of executing the buyer’s vector within the range on the weekly timeframe (potential targets are 1.12142 and 1.12757).
Gold , after bouncing off the 50% level (2538.5) of the last monthly buyer’s impulse, has broken through 2710.52, which was the beginning of the last seller’s impulse on the daily timeframe. On the weekly timeframe, there was a manipulation (false breakout) of the level where the last buyer’s impulse started (2604.39), and the weekly bar is impressive with its spread. On the one hand, there is an opportunity to look for buys, but on the other hand, a seller may appear just above in the 2721–2759 range. Let’s see who will win the battle for the 2710.52 level.
SPX500 . The buyer is defending the breakout from the range on the daily timeframe. The buyer has absorbed the seller’s attack bar from November 15 (which had high volume) on the upper boundary of the range at 5891.6. As a result, a buyer’s zone has formed on the upper boundary of the range (upper edge of the zone is 5975.6). Additionally, the price dipped below the 50% level of the last buyer’s impulse on the daily timeframe. You can look for buying opportunities if the buyer reactivates from this zone.
Good luck with your trading and investments!
S&P 500 (SPX500)
S&P 500: Gains Driven by Data, Eyes on Key Events Next WeekS&P 500: Gains Driven by Data, Eyes on Key Events Next Week
The S&P 500 ended the week on a positive note, buoyed by strong economic data, robust corporate earnings, and supportive seasonality. However, investors are shifting their focus to critical upcoming events: the FOMC meeting on Tuesday and the PCE inflation report on Wednesday. These events have the potential to set the tone for the markets for the remainder of the year.
Mixed Economic Data
The past week brought a blend of economic data, with some encouraging signals and a few disappointments:
Initial Jobless Claims (Nov. 16): At 213K, the result came in better than the 220K consensus, underscoring the resilience of the labor market and reducing recession fears.
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov.): Disappointed at -5.5 against expectations of 8, reflecting continued weakness in the manufacturing sector.
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final (Nov.): Came in at 71.8, below the 73.7 forecast, indicating a slight dip in consumer confidence.
S&P Global Services PMI Flash (Nov.): Surprised to the upside with a reading of 57.0, exceeding the expected 55.2, highlighting the strength of the services sector.
Nvidia Shines Bright
Corporate earnings added to the bullish sentiment, led by Nvidia's impressive Q3 results. The company reported revenue of 35.08 billion dollars, significantly above the consensus estimate of 33.17 billion dollars. As a leader in AI-related technology and semiconductors, Nvidia's results lifted the broader tech sector and contributed to the S&P 500’s gains.
Market Sentiment and Seasonality
The Fear & Greed Index currently stands at 61, in the "Greed" zone, indicating a risk-on environment as investors show confidence in equities. Seasonality also plays a crucial role. Historically, the S&P 500 benefits from end-of-year trends, especially in an election year, when policymakers often aim to maintain market stability.
Challenges Ahead
While the current momentum is positive, the market faces significant tests next week with two major events:
FOMC Meeting (Tuesday): The Federal Reserve’s policy decisions and commentary will be in the spotlight. Investors will look for signals on whether the Fed plans to pause or keep the door open for further rate hikes in 2024.
PCE Inflation Report (Wednesday): The core PCE inflation data, the Fed's preferred measure of price pressures, could shape expectations for monetary policy. A higher-than-expected reading might increase concerns about further tightening, while a lower figure would reinforce the soft landing narrative.
Lingering Risks
In addition to the upcoming macroeconomic events, investors remain wary of:
Trade Policy: Former President Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs on imported goods could stoke inflation and weigh on economic growth.
Geopolitics: The ongoing risk of escalation in the Ukraine conflict continues to loom over global markets.
Soft Landing: The Baseline Scenario
Looking at the current data, the S&P 500 appears to be on the path to a soft landing, supported by a strong labor market and robust technology sector performance. Favorable seasonality—both year-end trends and election-year dynamics—further bolsters the case for continued gains, which remains the baseline scenario for now.
Conclusion
The S&P 500 has shown strength, but next week’s FOMC meeting and PCE inflation report could reshape market dynamics. The key question is whether the data will support the soft landing narrative or signal a need for further monetary tightening.
What are your thoughts on the S&P 500’s outlook given the upcoming Fed meeting and inflation data? Will the index sustain its rally, or are we in for increased volatility? Share your insights in the comments.
S&P 500 index short term outlookThe S&P 500 Index (SPX) is trading within an ascending channel on its daily chart, signaling a continuation of the bullish trend. This structure is defined by parallel rising trendlines connecting higher highs and higher lows, indicating strong buyer interest and sustained momentum.
Recent price action shows a breakout above minor resistance near the 5,900 level, confirming bullish sentiment. The index is currently moving toward the midpoint of the channel, with potential to test the upper boundary near 6,100. The lower trendline offers solid support, maintaining the channel's integrity.
Volume will be crucial in validating any further upward moves. Increased volume during an advance toward the upper boundary would strengthen the bullish case, while declining volume may indicate consolidation or a pause in the trend.
For traders, entering a long position while the index remains in the channel could be a viable strategy. A breakout above the upper boundary could present additional upside potential, with profit targets based on the channel's height projected upward. Stop-loss orders can be placed below the lower trendline or the most recent swing low near the 5,800 level to manage risk.
This setup suggests the SPX is poised for continued gains, provided the channel remains intact. However, a break below the lower trendline could signal a reversal, requiring caution and adjustment of trading strategies.
S&P 500: Gains Driven by Data, Eyes on Key Events Next WeekThe S&P 500 ended the week on a positive note, buoyed by strong economic data, robust corporate earnings, and supportive seasonality. However, investors are shifting their focus to critical upcoming events: the FOMC meeting on Tuesday and the PCE inflation report on Wednesday. These events have the potential to set the tone for the markets for the remainder of the year.
Mixed Economic Data
The past week brought a blend of economic data, with some encouraging signals and a few disappointments:
Initial Jobless Claims (Nov. 16): At 213K, the result came in better than the 220K consensus, underscoring the resilience of the labor market and reducing recession fears.
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov.): Disappointed at -5.5 against expectations of 8, reflecting continued weakness in the manufacturing sector.
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final (Nov.): Came in at 71.8, below the 73.7 forecast, indicating a slight dip in consumer confidence.
S&P Global Services PMI Flash (Nov.): Surprised to the upside with a reading of 57.0, exceeding the expected 55.2, highlighting the strength of the services sector.
Nvidia Shines Bright
Corporate earnings added to the bullish sentiment, led by Nvidia's impressive Q3 results. The company reported revenue of 35.08 billion dollars, significantly above the consensus estimate of 33.17 billion dollars. As a leader in AI-related technology and semiconductors, Nvidia's results lifted the broader tech sector and contributed to the S&P 500’s gains.
Market Sentiment and Seasonality
The Fear & Greed Index currently stands at 61, in the "Greed" zone, indicating a risk-on environment as investors show confidence in equities. Seasonality also plays a crucial role. Historically, the S&P 500 benefits from end-of-year trends, especially in an election year, when policymakers often aim to maintain market stability.
Challenges Ahead
While the current momentum is positive, the market faces significant tests next week with two major events:
FOMC Meeting (Tuesday): The Federal Reserve’s policy decisions and commentary will be in the spotlight. Investors will look for signals on whether the Fed plans to pause or keep the door open for further rate hikes in 2024.
PCE Inflation Report (Wednesday): The core PCE inflation data, the Fed's preferred measure of price pressures, could shape expectations for monetary policy. A higher-than-expected reading might increase concerns about further tightening, while a lower figure would reinforce the soft landing narrative.
Lingering Risks
In addition to the upcoming macroeconomic events, investors remain wary of:
Trade Policy: Former President Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs on imported goods could stoke inflation and weigh on economic growth.
Geopolitics: The ongoing risk of escalation in the Ukraine conflict continues to loom over global markets.
Soft Landing: The Baseline Scenario
Looking at the current data, the S&P 500 appears to be on the path to a soft landing, supported by a strong labor market and robust technology sector performance. Favorable seasonality—both year-end trends and election-year dynamics—further bolsters the case for continued gains, which remains the baseline scenario for now.
Conclusion
The S&P 500 has shown strength, but next week’s FOMC meeting and PCE inflation report could reshape market dynamics. The key question is whether the data will support the soft landing narrative or signal a need for further monetary tightening.
What are your thoughts on the S&P 500’s outlook given the upcoming Fed meeting and inflation data? Will the index sustain its rally, or are we in for increased volatility? Share your insights in the comments.
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Nov 22, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
In this week's trading session, the S&P 500 index has exhibited notable stability at the previously completed Mean Support level of 5856. Following this stabilization, the index is progressing toward a retest of the completed Outer Index Rally level of 6000 and the Key Resistance threshold of 6008. This substantial upward movement may/will precipitate a decline toward the Mean Support level 5920. However, it is crucial to recognize that reaching this support level or any pullback will facilitate a price rebound, thereby positioning the market for the subsequent phase of the bullish trend. This trend will be aimed at the Next #1 Outer Index Rally target of 6123 and potentially extend beyond that level in the near future.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 11-22: Tmp-Bottom PatternToday's Temp-Bottom pattern suggests the SPY/QQQ will attempt to move downward - trying to find support.
If this pattern plays out as I suspect, we'll see the SPY and QQQ move lower, with the SPY attempting to move to the 588-590 area and the QQQ attempting to move to the 499-500 area.
I still believe the current setup promotes a breakdown in price based on the current Flagging formation related to the broad Excess Phase Peak pattern.
Nothing tells me the markets are going to rally at this stage. Unless we get above the Peak levels of these patterns, the most logical outcome is a breakdown in price leading to a Phase #3 EPP consolidation low.
Gold and Silver are starting to make a very big recovery rally - just as I suggested weeks ago.
It is great to see this move in Gold - although Silver is lagging a bit. Silver will rally, but it will rally slower than Gold at this point.
There is a real chance Gold could be trading above $3000 before the end of 2024. Buckle up.
BTCUSD came within $1000 of my $100,500 target level overnight. WOW.
This last $1000 move higher should be reached today.
Once we get above $100,500 on BTCUSD, expect it to try to roll into a new pullback and setup a new EPP Flagging formation.
That is what price does, it is either TRENDING or FLAGGING.
Get some.
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Bubble everything - 2024-NOV-13Taking into account "bubble everything" theory and ~18-years cycle on financial markets + on top of that ~4-years cycle in crypto markets ... we have roughly 6-7 ATH on everything.
Then bubble will start bursting.
Housing markets will need 4-7 years to visit new bottoms.
Stocks & crypto will need ~1 year to catch new bottoms.
What's going to be the trigger to bubble everything burst?
2024-11-21 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
sp500 e-mini futures - Neutral below 5990, max bullish above. Bearish only below 5900. I have the close near a bear and a bull trend line, so tough spot for any prediction. I do think after so many attempts by the bears, they have given up and we are now free to do the second round of this blow-off top. Consider me surprised if we continue in my drawn bull channel and bears can get this down 60+ points again.
comment : Daily chart tells you 4 consecutive bull bars on increasing volume. Very high chance tomorrow the bears will give up and we test 6050+ again. The bear trend line could still be valid or not, we will only know tomorrow. Above 5980/5990 we will see an acceleration upwards. On the 1h tf you can make a case for 5980 being at the crossing of bull and bear trend line but we will have an answer tomorrow morning.
current market cycle: bull trend
key levels: 5855 - 6100
bull case: Higher lows and higher highs. Bulls want a retest of the ath and above. I have a measured move target at 6150 and even above 6300. Bulls have all the arguments on their side for a second leg up but to get it, they would have to prevent the market from getting another strong move down to below 5920. It should probably stay above 5950 to trap many bears who sold the highs again.
Invalidation is below 5940ish.
bear case : Bears do not have much tbh. They sold every high the last days but selling is getting weaker and they can only do it so often before they stop and will only try higher again. Best case for bears is to stay below 5990 and do what we did the whole week, sell the highs for at least 60 points.
Invalidation is above 5990.
short term: Bullish. Above 5990 uber bullish for new ath. Neutral below 5950 and below. Only below 5800 I turn bear.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-16: So the top definitely qualifies as a blow-off top but the question if we continue further up, is still valid. It is possible that we are already inside the correction and if we continue below 5860, I highly doubt bulls can get above 6000 again. Given the current market structure, I won’t turn bear because the risk of another retest of the highs or even higher ones are just too big.
current swing trade: Nope
trade of the day: Same as dax. Yesterdays’ lows held and longs around 5905 were beyond amazing.
fib levels; unwritten ruleSometimes you can predict market moves by price and S-D logic. Gold consolidated at 2500$, that works as a natural fib level? ie if market (SD dynamics) is strong enough -> either 3000$ is possible or 2500$ stays the limit. Bitcoin around 75k figures out which side is stronger --> does 100k make sense or 50k is greater. Which side market leans towards most - wins. ♟️
Update: GOLD, SILVER, NVDA, SPDR Sectors, SPY, QQQ & MoreThe markets are really struggling this morning.
The strong selling after the open is likely an indication traders are not buying into the hype right now.
NVDA earnings hit and drove the markets a bit higher into the open. I see this selling pressure as a BIG SHIFT into my Anomaly Event.
Gold & Silver are reacting to the downside.
SPTD sectors, particularly XLE (Energy) is still showing strong upward trends - while many of the others have already started to move downward.
I'm watching XLF and XLRE for a breakdown event.
The SPY & QQQ are showing broad weakness right now.
Prepare for my Price Anomaly Event.
Get some.
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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 11-21 : Harami Inside PatternToday's Pattern suggests the SPY will consolidate in a Harami-Inside day type of price action.
In today's video, I highlight the continued potential for a price Anomaly event, even though we are seeing mostly post-election bullish price activity.
I do believe the proposed Anomaly event is highly likely headed into the Thanksgiving & Christmas holiday season.
Gold and Silver may stall a bit before attempting to rally further. Silver is not reacting similar to Gold, thus I have concerns that metals may stall a bit before attempting a bigger move higher.
BTCUSD is on track to rally up to $100k - just as I predicted.
Get some today.
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What do DJI, SPX and NDX have in common?Well the obvious answer is that they are Major USA indices and they also share some of the big players as stocks which make up their composite Indices.
My answer the Question...
The beauty of Trading View is the ability to combine all sorts of aspects of trading information together, whether it be writing new scripts, combining indicators or in my case combing major indices together in Logarithmic view to get a new way of future price discovery (for SPX & NDX) by looking backwards or left at price structure on the next highest valued Indice.
As we know A.T.M all 3 Indices are at A.T.H's so at some point in the near future there will be a move higher into new price territory. The question then is where is the price target? Where is the next resistance level when there is no price structure to the left on that Indice?
What I noticed historically about these Indices is that past price structure (major highs and lows) from the higher valued Indice (Mostly DJI) is horizontally plotted forward into the future onto the lesser valued Indice. Like looking left historically at an instrument with a lot of data for support and resistance levels.
Obviously with DJI being the highest dollar value Indice and it also moving higher past its all time high at some point into unknown price territory, we will have to rely on its own price structure for support levels or Fibonacci levels for clues about were price will find resistance levels in the future.
On SPX and NDX though we have a different story. As these 2 Indices move higher into unknown price territory with no price structure of their own to the left looking back, we can use the past price structure of the higher dollar valued Indice (DJI) market highs and lows to assess future levels of resistance or to find future price targets.
With SPX we will be able to use NDX and also DJI to find future higher price targets and resistance.
With NDX we will be able to use DJI to find future higher price targets and resistance.
Some examples,
If you pull up these 3 indices on a line chart yourself you will find that with NDX and SPX the support levels for the Dotcom and GFC crash's were DJI's historical price structure levels from 1961-1981. $731-$965.
If you look at SPX the present high and previous equal high on 01/2022 you will find it is mirrored in price structure on NDX 2015-2016 period and that the 2000 Dotcom peak is acting as a support level $4380 for present SPX price structure. NDX 01/2022
If you go way back in time to the 1930's Great depression market crash you will find the Aug 1929 SPX high $32.50 was in fact a resistance level which became support level for DJI back in 1898 and 1903 respectively.
The major past Cycle Highs on the higher valued Indice prior to recession tend to be the resistance levels for for future highs on the lower valued Indices. Or resistance levels that were broken and became support on DJI became resistance dollar value levels for SPX and NDX.
It is obvious that vertically this 3 indices would show similar reactions to market shocks but I'm not quite sure why horizontally there are so many matching price support and resistance levels.
This is a Monthly Chart over a 130 year period so the levels are harder to see and not precisely dollar accurate but if you use a weekly or daily chart you will see the levels line up very well.
So, obviously in my head I'm wondering what the heck is happening here exactly?
Some of these older levels have played out over 50-60 years into the future on DJI to the SPX and NDX, more recently the time frame is reducing to around 10-20 years.
Fibonacci levels also work on this chart going from lowest value Indice at a recession low to next business cycle high on highest value Indice.
Maybe W.D Gann could explain this accurately for me....Like is there some sort of Fractal playing out here or do the Wall street crew already use this method or is it the madness of the crowd echoing forward through time unwittingly expressing human emotion into charts of financial greed and fear? Who knows? I'd like to hear Traders ideas about this phenomena.
US DOLLAR - Let Me Explain My Bearish Thesis...In this video, I’ll share why I believe the markets are on the verge of a major downturn.
By analyzing the US dollar chart alongside Gold, the S&P 500, and Bond Yields, I’ll explain why we may be approaching the final stages of this market cycle for stocks and asset prices.
This shift could devastate the economy, setting the stage for the next bull market. While the extent of the drop will depend on market forces, I’ll explore how such a scenario could unfold. We’ve already seen Oil prices plunge to zero—if you think that can’t happen to other markets, time may prove otherwise.
This is simply a turning point, a necessary reset to pave the way for future growth.
This is not financial advice.
NVDA Predictive Modeling Outlook : Pre Earnings 11-20-24I thought I would have a little fun with my ADL Predictive Modeling system.
This shows the Daily & Weekly predictive results for NVDA prior to the earnings data release.
Have fun.
This is really just to show you how the ADL system works and to test the outcome related to NVDA's earnings/outcome.
Get some..
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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 11-20 : Flat-Down PatternToday's Flat Down Pattern suggests the SPY & QQQ will trail downward a bit within the current #2 sideways flagging pattern. I believe this setup is indicative of a broader breakdown (Anomaly Event) playing out headed into Thanksgiving and into the end of the year.
Gold and Silver are also moving in an Inverted Excess Phase Peak pattern - struggling near a Phase #3 (sideways consolidation) range. This move will resolve to the upside if my research is correct, yet we could also see Gold and Silver move into a very large Phase #2 type of EPP phase (Flagging downward). This could setup a very large upward price rally in Gold and Silver over the next 60+ days.
BTCUSD is struggling to break to new highs. Although I see a confirmed bullish trend because of a recent new Higher High, I also see BTCUSD struggling to continue to make new highs right now.
Because of this, I see some potential for a breakdown if BTCUSD is unable to rally to new highs within the next 5 to 6+ hours.
Remember, price must always attempt to make new highs or new lows. Failure to make a new high means price must then attempt to make a new low. Failure to make a new low means price must then attempt to make a new high.
These are the RULES OF MARKET PRICE ACTIVITY. Once you learn to use/follow them, trading becomes a bit easier to understand.
Get some.
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S&P 500: Long Trade Targets AheadS&P 500 Trade Details:
The S&P 500 (SPX) on the 15-minute timeframe confirms a bullish breakout according to the Risological trading indicator . Target 1 (TP1) has been successfully hit, with higher targets in sight, as the bullish momentum sustains.
S&P 500 Key Levels:
Entry: 5889.16
Stop Loss (SL): 5872.22
S&P 500 Take Profit Targets:
TP1: 5910.09 ✅
TP2: 5943.96
TP3: 5977.82
TP4: 5998.75
Analysis:
The price action indicates strong upward momentum with consecutive bullish candles. The moving averages align to support the trend. Short-term resistance at higher targets may see consolidation before further upward movement.
Outlook:
With TP1 hit, the trade looks promising to reach TP2 and beyond. Keep monitoring momentum strength and secure profits as each level is achieved. Stay cautious of reversals near key resistance zones.
Bitcoin Breaks To New Highs - $100.5K Is The Likely TargetI created this short video to help traders understand how Fibonacci Price Theory works using BTCUSD.
This move suggests that BTCUSD will attempt to rally above $95k and target $100.5k in the next trending phase.
BTCUSD broke away from the Excess Phase peak Flagging formation (#2) very clearly today.
At this point, there is very little downside price risk unless price breaks below $86.8k.
I also review Gold/Silver and the SPY/QQQ to help traders prepare for the BIG SHIFT into my proposed Anomaly Event.
Here we go..
Get some.
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2024-11-19 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
sp500 e-mini futures - Bullish bias still. The reversal was nasty and we had a very strong close. We are in a nested expanding triangle and if bears are strong, market won’t get above 5950. If bulls do, we go 5980 and the bear trend line next. I lean bullish. Measured move up from today gets us close to the ath and it’s the third try bears tried to close below the 50% retracement and failed. Good chance today was bears giving up and we melt again to a new ath. If we drop below 5900 again, I am probably wrong and bears taking over again.
comment : Nasty reversal and a good close by the bulls. Can expect follow through tomorrow above 5950 up tom 5980 and test the bear trend line. Above that we print a new ath. Best for bears would be to keep this below 5950 and then they have a chance of testing down to 5900 again. I have a heavy bullish bias going into tomorrow as long as market does not drop below 5900 much again
current market cycle: bull trend
key levels: 5900 - 6100
bull case: Bulls want to test the bear trend line around 5980 and go above 6000 again. They do need to break above 5950 first, which could be resistance due to the expanding triangle pattern but I doubt it. They kept the market 3 days in a row above the 50% retracement and I don’t think bears are strong enough to try a fourth time tomorrow. Measured move up from today’s reversal leads to around 6036.
Invalidation is below 5900.
bear case: Bears had an amazing sell off but bulls bought it big time. Technically this could be seen as a bear flag, but bears would have to keep the market below 5950 for that. That’s their first target and then getting below 5900 again. Since we are seeing big time buying below 5900 and the selling was mainly due to news, I don’t think bears are favored.
Invalidation is above 5950.
short term: Bullish. Probably more squeezing late bears tomorrow and I still do have unreasonable insane targets above 6100 that could be hit over the next days-weeks.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-16: So the top definitely qualifies as a blow-off top but the question if we continue further up, is still valid. It is possible that we are already inside the correction and if we continue below 5860, I highly doubt bulls can get above 6000 again. Given the current market structure, I won’t turn bear because the risk of another retest of the highs or even higher ones are just too big.
current swing trade: Nope
trade of the day: Buying 5855. Market printed a perfect inverted head & shoulders on the 1m tf, huge bull bars on a big volume increase. 3 almost too good to by true reasons to take the trade.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 11-19 : Top Resistance PatternToday's Pattern plays into the Anomaly Event I believe will continue to play out over the next 15+ trading days.
Today's Top Resistance pattern suggests the SPY/QQQ will move higher, attempting to find a peak, then roll downward into a decidedly bearish type fo trend.
My analysis continues to suggest a price Anomaly event is likely. I believe this event could be related to a financial or hard-asset type of devaluation event (a mini-crisis).
As of right now, we need to see how today plays out related to price trends. I would be cautious of a rollover to the downside throughout trading today for the SPY/QQQ.
Gold & Silver already moving into a very strong #3 rally phase - attempting to find the new consolidation range (forming the #3 of the EPP pattern).
Bitcoin has moved into a moderate bullish trend - but could still roll downward very strongly. Stay very cautious of this moderate upward trend until we get a more confirmed breakaway above the Ultimate High.
Get some.
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