PLTR Back to ATHsBounced off the .382 fib retracement with only ATH remaining. Lots of bullish momentum and TA has been smooth as well. Possible S&P 500 inclusion in September could also be driving price action from "smart money."
Flow into calls has been increasing with a few big orders above ATH have been spotted
S&P 500 (SPX500)
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 11-7 : Rally Pattern DayGood morning,
Although I would argue the post-election rally may already be moving into exhaustion, the SPY Cycle Patterns suggest today is a Rally pattern in Trending mode. So, I expect the markets to attempt a bit of a carryover rally phase today - moving into a Counter-trend Rally pattern tomorrow.
That counter-trend rally pattern suggests the markets will try to find a peak/top and roll downward into the close of the week.
Gold and Silver appear to be basing with a potential for another move downward today - retesting recent lows. Based on my estimate related to Fibonacci Time Cycles, I believe Metals is looking for a momentum base to rally off of. Thus, I suggest traders prepare for a big move upward in Gold and Silver over the next 4 to 7+ trading days.
Bitcoin is still in a Bullish trending phase after breaking into new highs. Today, I spent quite a bit of time going over the Excess Phase Peak pattern related to how the price is trending and what to expect.
It is critical to understand that the markets will move away from this post-election relief rally phase over the next week or so. Ultimately, what has changed is that we have a new POTUS with new policies and objectives in 2025. Right now, everything is still pretty much the same as it was last week.
Volatility is still high and I urge traders to stay cautious. The time for adding more liquidity will come after November 25-30.
Remember, the number 1 rule for traders is to Protect Capital. You can still trade, just trade much smaller allocation levels for now.
We are about to move into a period of moderate consolidation. Sit back and wait out this sideways trend. The real opportunity will come after November 25-30.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
Bounce from June low or Return to the channel from 2008-9?Hello,
As always to my analysis, I cannot align myself to either bull or bear. Anyway. Here is my idea on SPX towards 2024.
After I've drawn upward trendlines from 2008-09 bottom and marking the bottom of RSI, I think SPX could bounce back at 3750 (Sep 2022) and test the record high towards 4800. This may be plausible because the market rallies after mid-term election (in the U.S.).
Of course the macro is cooling down and when the fundamentals are considered, the pricing of the each (many) equity is still historically expensive. With these regards, perhaps the market would move toward 3200 to make a good return to the rising channel from 2008.
Overall, FED has done terrific job to relief the damage from the pandemic. But maybe the monetary easing was little too much.
Thanks for reading!
I am not a professional but buy and hold investor. As many of you, I've lost quite a bit from the beginning of this year but anyways the journey continues.
Hellena | SPX500 (4H): Long to area 5915 (Wave 5).Dear colleagues, I believe that the upward movement is not over yet and the end of the movement in wave “5” is ahead.
At the moment I see the support area of 5800, from which I assume that the price will reach the area of 5915.
Then we will look for a short trade entry, but for now all my thoughts are only on long positions.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
Combined US Equities - Put away all technicals for now.Oddly enough, I did not follow one of the great events of 2024. And prior analyses was made on technical indication.
When a reversal like this happens, it is rather extreme, and technicals can be put aside. With the election outcome, markets are suddenly RISK ON and very bullish.
You see this bullishness with a Marubozu type candle that broke through two resistance levels in one day - breaking into and out of the Decision Box marked.
MACD is now skewed to the bullish side although VolDiv has yet to follow. This means price moved a lot before volume.
Previous projection is redundant now.
The only indication was that the day before yesterday, a nice small bullish candlestick was suggesting a breakout to the upside.
Going forward, just enjoy the ride, and make sure you have rules to adhere to!
All the best!
2024-11-06 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
sp500 e-mini futures - Same here, 2 daily bars engulfing 2 months price action and market tested the upper bull wedge line for a new ath. We are close enough to 6000 that we can expect it to get hit, everything else would be a huge surprise to me. Can you short 6000? Not blindly, market mostly needs a double top or more at these levels before it gives up on it. If bears get below the 1h 20ema, I start thinking about not being bullish anymore, until then it’s peak euphoria.
comment: Huge day for the bulls, right to or through the upper bull wedge line, depending on how you want to draw it. 6000 is the target and bulls will not stop until we have printed it. Bears can’t seriously expect this to stop before so that is why most of today's price action was bears giving up. We need some time around 6000 to find out how many bulls want to buy that price or if we see an immediate profit taking and reversal down. For now the bull wedge is still alive and the best pattern we have. 6000 would be a bit of an overshoot and those can reverse very fast and they like to test down to the other extreme, which would be 5800ish.
current market cycle: bull wedge
key levels: 5730 - 6000
bull case: Bulls want 6000. Don’t make this more complicated. Market has not touched the 1h 20ema since yesterday’s US open. As long as it is not broken, only look for longs until we hit 6000.
Invalidation is below 5730.
bear case : Bears don’t have much. Complete giveup from since yesterday and they will try again at 6000. If they somehow manage to print a decent 1h bear bar below the 20ema tomorrow, their case would get better. For now they don’t have one.
Invalidation is above 6050.
short term: Max bullish for 6000 as long as 1h 20ema holds.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-13 : Very rough guess for the remaining trading weeks in 2024. Spike up, decent correction (~10%), nasty (blow off top) year end rally if earnings hold in Q4. Don’t trade based on that guess.
current swing trade: Nope
trade of the day: Buy anwhere.
NQ breaks to new highs. Markets reacting to Election ResultsThis upward trend seems to have some momentum today. I'm not suggesting traders chase this rally and hold anything overnight, but I am seeing new highs on the ES/NQ charts, and IWM and other sectors are rallying to new ATHs today as well.
This shows the scale of capital sitting and waiting for the election to play out. Traders were very concerned with the election outcome.
At this point, I consider this rally phase a bit overcooked. The ES and NQ will likely continue to try to push higher as we move into the Santa Rally phase, but as a trader, I would be cautious of any overreaction to the election results.
My best advice for my followers is to continue trading in minimal quantities unless you can handle taking huge lumps/losses over the next 3 to 4 days.
The US markets will settle into next week, and after this emotional price move subsides, we'll start to trend based on more logical economic data.
There will be some huge opportunities for skilled traders over the next 5+ months. Get ready.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
IWM: Cup, Handle, and a Bullish GambleAMEX:IWM
Original Chart :
Been eyeing IWM lately, and honestly, this setup has the kind of potential that could get even the most cynical trader to sit up and pay attention. We’re looking at the *beginning* of a cup-and-handle-esque pattern so pristine it belongs in a TA textbook—classic accumulation followed by consolidation, like the bulls are quietly gearing up for something big. But here’s where it gets even more interesting: with the recent US election in the rearview and a lineup of Fibonacci extensions and moving averages all pointing in the same direction, this setup is practically begging for a breakout. Let’s dive into the details.
Fibonacci Extensions and Price Targets
Let’s talk targets. I’m looking at $315 and $365 based on Fibonacci extensions, and yes, that $365 target might sound ambitious, but hear me out. Fibs are like the star charts for traders—rooted in math, mystical enough for Twitter hype, and strangely accurate. $315 is the conservative target, sitting right around the 100% extension, where we might see price take a breather. But the real spotlight is on $365, the 200% extension level, which could be where we end up if this breakout goes full send. If Fibonacci levels have taught us anything, it’s that the universe loves a good price projection.
Moving Averages and the Golden Cross
Then there’s the 50-day and 200-day moving average crossover—the infamous “golden cross,” which might sound like something out of an Indiana Jones movie, but actually just signals bullish momentum. We’ve got price hanging above both moving averages, a classic recipe for sustained upward trends. Historically, this setup has a decent track record of making bulls look smart, and right now, it’s flashing green like a big, neon sign saying, “This way to higher prices.”
Volume Profile and Key Levels between $200-$240
The Volume Profile is where things get interesting. That $200-$240 range is showing a massive amount of trading activity, acting like a gravity well for price. If IWM revisits this range and bounces around $235, that’s our green light for lift-off. This is the make-or-break level—the battleground where bulls and bears duke it out. Here’s the nuance: if price *rejects* $235 and consolidates, that’s what would actually form the handle of this cup-and-handle setup, setting the stage for a later breakout. If $235 holds, we’re looking at a more direct path upwards. If not, well… it might be time to rethink the moonshot narrative.
Mapping Out the Bullish Scenarios
So, we’re left with two paths. Path one is the steady grind up to our targets, where IWM just slowly marches its way to $315 and then potentially $365, no drama, just smooth sailing. Path two is the extended consolidation phase in the $200-$240 range through most of 2025, creating that classic “handle” structure. Think of it as the market getting in some much-needed cardio before the sprint. By end-Q1 2025, we should know which scenario is unfolding based on whether we hold above that $235 line.
Curious to see if anyone else is seeing the same potential here. The combination of a cup-and-handle formation in the works, Fib extensions, and moving averages feels like a recipe for something substantial, but I’m always down to hear different perspectives. Are you all vibing with the $365 target, or is that too much hopium?
Election Rally Sets Up Big REVERSION Shift - Stay CautiousThis quick video was initiated to show you how the ES/NQ are setting up new #2 Excess Phase Peak patterns after the overnight rally.
Then I took a look at Gold/Silver.
We are seeing a very broad shift into a reversion phase where the markets may move into a PANIC type of DEEP-V low over the next 48+ hours.
The move in metals (related to the US Dollar rally), will likely result in a DEEP-V base/bottom - prompting a fairly strong recovery/rally phase in metals over the next 2+ weeks.
Take a look at what happened during the COVID crisis. The same type of PANIC selling/shift took place then.
The Dollar rallies on expectations/policy/or a crisis. This puts very strong pressure on Metals.
Then, the markets settle into a reasonable expectation (post-event) and the US Dollar settles. But metals have been deeply undervalued because of the PANIC selling.
Metals then move strongly back to the upside - removing to the pre-crisis price level, then move even higher as metals attempt to hedge risks related to the post-event/crisis economy.
Get ready. This could be one of the biggest opportunities of your life.
Get Some
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 11-6 : Breakaway Post-ElectionWow. All I can say is WOW.
Keeping a different schedule related to the markets had me in bed at about 9PM California time. Yea, I missed most of it last night. But my wife woke me up at midnight to tell me who won.
When I got up this morning (early) and checked the markets, it sure looked like the world voted in favor of the Trump win, with a solid 2-3% rally overnight.
This is where things start to get very interesting.
We have about 70+ days until the inauguration (Jan 21, I believe). Between now and then, the US and global markets will attempt to shift towards new policies and expectations.
Part of this will come from news, but much of it will come from policy expectations.
Some sectors will shift direction. Others will extend existing trends.
Smart traders should prepare for opportunities that align with their interests and realize that we are looking at some real risks over the next 4+ years.
What I will state is I continue to believe the next 5-7+ years are the greatest opportunity of your life.
Watch my video and buckle up. The markets are seeking a new base/frequency to transition into shifting expectations.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
SPX500USD M15 Not Perfected SetupSpoken about the not Perfected Setup… where the highest of the sixth and seventh candle It’s not superseded by the highest of the eighth or ninth candle.
So you can expect that in the next 3 to 5 candles, the Setup high (Also, the highest of the sixth or seventh candle) should be superseded before retracement proper.
They noted in this chart that the purple box should be broken into and above.
Let’s watch the demonstration…
US500 SPX Technical Analysis and Trade Idea👀👉 The US500 has recently faced selling pressure, which could offer opportunities for short-term traders. In this video, we’ll break down the price action, assess the current trend and market structure, and look at potential counter-trend buy and sell setups during the retracement if the price action develops as anticipated. Risk Disclaimer: Forex trading carries significant risks, and market conditions may change suddenly. This content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. 📉✅
2024-11-05 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Indexes - Who wants to be long into election day? That question pondered my mind couple of times today but here we are. Surprising bull strength. I said it was too soon for the bigger second bear leg down but today was also too strong for bulls at this point. No bigger opinion on today’s price action. Most markets traded back up to the 50% retracement and near their daily 20ema and that spot is as neutral as it gets. Still leaning more bearish than bullish and I would not be surprised if the Globex session sell this hard.
sp500 e-mini futures
comment: Bulls had a good day and a buy vacuum up to the 50% retracement and daily 20ema. Bears have to come up with something big to reverse this. On the daily chart you can see the candle bodies from 2 weeks ago stayed above 5830, which is my highest target for bulls for now. If they go above that, they might as well melt to the bear trend line 5870.
current market cycle: trading range (chance that we are already in a bear trend is there)
key levels: 5730 - 5840
bull case: Bulls want to get a measured move up from today, which would lead to 5900. For now I don’t think the odds are too good for that but today’s strength was also surprising. Above 5830 I think most bears will give up.
Invalidation is below 5730.
bear case: Bears have to defend their big leg down from last week and they should keep it below 5830. They could see this as a buy vacuum to test the daily 20ema and we go down from here. My W4 target from my weekly outlook was 5800, so we are still close enough for this to be correct.
Invalidation is above 5830.
short term: Leaning bearish if we stay below 5830. Want to see this reverse completely and then some.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-13 : Very rough guess for the remaining trading weeks in 2024. Spike up, decent correction (~10%), nasty (blow off top) year end rally if earnings hold in Q4. Don’t trade based on that guess.
current swing trade: Nope
trade of the day: Buying US open I guess.
Riding the Bullish Wave: HPQ Eyes $41.53 Long Term TargetHP Inc. (NYSE: HPQ) is showing promising signals for a short-term upside, despite recent volatility in the tech sector. According to recent reports, the stock outperformed its competitors on a strong trading day, yet faces ongoing risks to a PC market rebound, as highlighted by warnings from Citigroup. However, our Quantum Probability indicator, W.ARITAs, coupled with technical patterns, points to a solid trading opportunity.
Technical Outlook: Bullish Patterns Indicate Upside
Our analysis has identified two powerful overlapping bullish patterns in HPQ stock: the Bullish Harmonic Pattern - BAT and the Bullish Flag, both signaling potential upward movement. The stock has faced considerable pressure around the critical zone of $36.08, where we saw three retests, each validating the support level. Following these retests, we have now confirmed a breakout above this critical zone.
The ideal entry price for investors looking to capitalize on this momentum is $36.09 . We are placing a stop loss at $34.18, protecting against potential downside, while the take-profit target is set at $41.53 , based on key resistance levels. This offers a strong risk-reward ratio of 2.89, making it a compelling short-term trade.
Conclusion: High Potential Short-Term Opportunity
While HPQ has faced challenges in the broader tech market, including concerns about the PC market rebound, the stock’s technical setup presents a positive outlook for short-term gains. Investors seeking to enter at $37.09 with a stop loss of $34.18 and target price of $41.53 stand to benefit from a bullish breakout and a favorable risk-reward scenario.
Disclaimer: This analysis is based on technical indicators and market observations. It is not financial advice. Investors should conduct their own research and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
SPX500 Will Fall!FOREXCOM:SPX500 is trading in a
Downtrend and the indice
Is making a pullback
From the horizontal resistance
Of 5771.33 from where
We will be expecting a
Further move down !
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 11-5 : Election DayThis video highlights what I believe is likely to happen today and into tonight (when the real news will hit). Additionally, I continue to warn that a price anomaly is very likely starting sometime after November 10.
Ultimately, the markets will struggle throughout the rest of the week, likely becoming a bit more volatile after the election.
I do believe the markets will move into the price anomaly event near November 10th and that event will likely transition into a big opportunity for traders sometime after November 15-18.
My ADL predictive modeling system is showing this anomaly event is highly likely in certain sectors.
Overall, I suggest traders continue to trade small allocation levels today as we get past "election day". The bigger opportunities come over the next 3 to 6+ months.
Today is not the day to be a hero. Today is the day to sit back, maybe target a few decent trades, and wait for the dust to settle.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
SP500 Short Term Sell IdeaH4 - Bearish trend pattern
Currently it looks like a pullback is happening
Until the strong resistance zone holds I expect the price to move lower further after pullbacks.
Is QE really around the corner? Let's compare to GFCThe argument for US Quantitative Easing soon and subsequent pumpamentals in the equity market are often discussed on socialmedia these days.
Let's look at the GFC and see when they announced QE back then.
February 7, 2007 – HSBC’s Subprime Losses
July 31, 2007 – Bear Stearns Hedge Fund Collapse
September 18, 2007 – Fed Begins Rate Cuts
September 15, 2008 - Lehmann Brothers Bankruptcy
November 25, 2008 - Fed announces QE: federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20081125b.htm
Were are we today?
Stonks at ATH, Gold at ATH, Bitcoin ATH. Valuations historically expansive and growth expectations on stonks gigantic accompanied by a lot of passive investment.
Okay so all I'm trying to say here is that there were times where they were very strict in doing QE and only as a last resort in the depths of a crisis.
Also when it happens it is not the immediate start to a bull market (at least during a crisis event).
Also the balance sheet of the FED seems still full to me with 7 trillion to burn through. Is it really time to increase again?
I know that the argument for soon QE to create liquidity(inflation) to handle the looming global debt crisis everyone is talking about is also out there.
I also think that they will be faster this time to announce QE, they might just still take couple of months and a little bit of crisis.
Fractal Consolidations Pre-Elections Shortprice swept after london session LRLR (blue box) High adn that was my entry Stop-Loss went above HRLR (red box) and I targeted Previous Week Low which was LRLR at the same time!
Bitcoin Bull Run Ignites: Eyeing New Highs Ahead of ElectionsOverview: Bitcoin (BTC) has recently demonstrated significant bullish momentum, breaking the $68,900 resistance level. This surge is supported by favorable financial news and the anticipation surrounding the U.S. presidential election scheduled for tomorrow.
Key Levels:
Entry Point: $68,900
Target 1 (T1): $75,146.69
Target 2 (T2): $84,392.46
Target 3 (T3): $92,059.49
Stop Loss: $66,500
Technical Indicators:
Moving Averages: The 50-day and 200-day moving averages are trending upwards, indicating sustained bullish momentum.
Relative Strength Index (RSI): Currently at 65, suggesting room for further upward movement before reaching overbought territory.
Volume: Increased trading volume aligns with the recent price surge, reinforcing the bullish outlook.
Fundamental Factors: The upcoming U.S. presidential election has heightened market interest in Bitcoin, with both major candidates expressing favorable views towards cryptocurrency regulation. Additionally, significant inflows into Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have been observed, indicating strong institutional support.
Conclusion: The confluence of technical indicators and positive fundamental developments suggests a strong bullish outlook for Bitcoin. Traders should monitor the aforementioned target levels and adjust positions accordingly, keeping an eye on potential resistance as the market reacts to election outcomes.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.
2 Important levelsThese are 2 important levels
It can drop to the bottom green line and could rise again to the upper line.
Market Leading Indicators - suggests DOWNThis is my most summarized panel of leading indicators which I use to assist in the determination of market projections, over and above technical indicators.
The SG10Y is about to break out
The JNK bonds are breaking down
Both TIPS and TLT have already broken down the uptrend support (bearish trend now)
The SOXL (semicon ETF) and the combined US Equities are just about to keel over.
Leads have turned down or are at the turning point.
Heads up!
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 11-4: Election Week Is HereGood morning, everyone.
This video highlights why I believe traders should stay very cautious through the early portion of this week and into next week. My research suggests the SPY & QQQ will stay somewhat range bound this week while the markets move into a SHOCK phase.
The elections are really going to take center-stage and even though I expect some reaction after the election are over - I'm not seeing any real trending opportunity in the SPY/QQQ until after November 20-25.
Thus, I suggest traders stay in a 80-85% CASH mode and trade very small allocation levels over the next 2-3 weeks. There is nothing wrong with moving into a CASH position and sitting on that cash till the market show more opportunity for profits.
Gold and Silver will struggle within a sideways range over the next 5 to 8+ days. The election event will likely drive some volatility in metals, but I see metals stalling out for at least 3-4 more days - trading in a sideways range.
Ultimately the SPY/QQQ, Gold & Silver are going to attempt to break downward - away from the Phase #3 & #4 consolidation phase. I see that as the Anomaly Event I discuss in this video.
Bitcoin appears to have already starting to break downward, away from the Phase #3 & #4 Excess Phase Peak setup. In this case, Bitcoin may be leading the global markets a bit and attempting to find the Ultimate Low over the next 2+ weeks.
Still, at this stage, the best advice I can offer is move assets to CASH and wait out the consolidation in the markets. Again, I don't see the markets moving into any real trending until after February 12-13 and possibly as late as February 20-25.
Buckle up. I think the markets are going to go into Anaphylactic Shock because of the election and post-election events.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
