SPX: highly optimisticThe US market celebrated on Friday the US Independence Day, after highly optimistic last two weeks. Almost every day, the S&P 500 was reaching new all time highest levels, finishing Thursday trading session at 6.279. At this moment this is officially treated as a new ATH for the index. The optimism was supported by better than expected US jobs data posted during the previous week. The NFP added 147K new jobs in June, which beated market expectations. The strong US payrolls reinforced market confidence despite concerns over trade tariffs. With inflation remaining sticky and solid jobs growth, markets have increased expectations of the Fed's rate cut in September. Currently, there is relatively low odds that the next rate cut might occur at the Julys FOMC meeting.
Tech companies were again those who led the index to the upside. The leader was for one more time Nvidia, with a weekly surge of 9,7%. AMZN was traded higher by 6,3%, MSFT by 3,9%. TSLA was struggling a bit, ending the week 0,33% higher from the week before.
Weekly news regarding trade tariffs include a US-Vietnam trade deal of 20% tariffs on imports from Vietnam. At the same time, the US exports to Vietnam will be tariffs-free. However, markets are still concerned regarding the final resolution of imposed 90-days delay of implemented tariffs for almost 180 countries around the world, a period which expires in July. On the other hand, Trump's tax mega bill was passed by the US Senate on Tuesday, and is currently awaiting final approval from the House. There were many discussions during the previous period that this tax mega bill might further increase US debt levels, which will be negatively reflected in the economy.
S&P 500 (SPX500)
SPX Is Pure RiskAbsolutely insane for people to be saying things like "a new bull market" when it never ended. All of the risk is to the downside. If markets ran another 10% to the upside that gives investors a chance to determine if they want to buy a correction to see new highs or not. But to say that a bull market is coming is the antithesis of thinking when current risk is all downside.
This is risk management 101:
Lets say you have a SP:SPX target of 10,000, would you rather buy it at 6,500 where you know your downside is 7-8% or right here at 6300 with a potential downside of 22%+?
Who in the market is long right now? Everyone because all the short sellers are stopped out, and the dumbest of money the guys who just got promoted to the rank of captain in the branch of hindsight bought the "breakout."
The retracement to the highs has been one of the most hated rallies off of a bounce ever seen and why? Because it required a large amount of vibes and to a degree stupidity to buy where it bounced but it paid off. So if it was borderline stupid to do that, what does it mean to lever up at the top?
The correct method is to either be short here or be patient for a breakout with volume and a successful retest. There you can limit your downside and have nearly unlimited upside if it plays out that way.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade End Of Week Update For 7-4Happy 4th of July
I've been very busy with projects and new tools for traders, as well as the new book I'm working on, and thought I would deliver an End Of Week update for everyone.
In this video, I cover the past Cycle Patterns and how they played out for the SPY/QQQ, Gold/Silver, and Bitcoin, as well as add some of my own insight related to the market trends.
All of my systems are still LONG and have not changed. I still believe this market is extremely overbought, and I believe it could roll over at any moment into a pullback - but we need to wait to see if/when that may/does happen.
Gold made a big move higher this week, and I believe that move could continue throughout July.
Bitcoin made a surprising Double-Top and is not rolling downward. Could be a breakdown in the markets as BTCUSD tends to lead the QQQ/NQ by about 3-5 days.
The SPY/QQQ rallied like a rocket all week. It was absolutely incredible to see the markets rally like this. But, I'm still cautious of a sudden rollover top.
I managed to catch some nice trades with options spreads this week, and my metals positions were on fire. I'm still trading from a "hedge everything" mode as I don't trust this rally, and I'm still watching for REJECTIONS near these new highs.
Stay safe and GET SOME.
DM me if you have any questions.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of July 3, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
During this abbreviated trading week, the S&P 500 Index has primarily shown an upward course, hitting and surpassing our target for the Outer Index Rally of 6235. Currently, the index demonstrates a consistent bullish trend, with the following objective for the Outer Index Rally set at 6420, followed by forthcoming targets of 6620 and 6768. Nevertheless, it is crucial to acknowledge the current price action may cause prices to retrace from their current fluctuation to test the Mean Support at 6200 before resuming their upward movement.
SPX500 Holds Above 6,225 – Bullish Trend Intact for NowSPX500 Update – Bullish Pressure Holds Above Pivot
SPX500 continues to show bullish momentum, as highlighted in our previous analysis. The price remains supported by strong buying volume above the key pivot zone at 6,225.
As long as the price stays above this level, a retest toward 6,225 remains possible before another leg higher.
However, a confirmed break below 6,225 would signal potential bearish momentum and shift the short-term structure.
Key Levels:
• Pivot Line: 6,246
• Resistance: 6,265 / 6,287 / 6,325
• Support: 6,225 / 6,191 / 6,143
S&P 500 Hit Record High Ahead of Holiday BreakS&P 500 Hit Record High Ahead of Holiday Break
Today, financial markets in the United States are closed in observance of Independence Day. Investor sentiment was likely buoyed by the latest rally in the S&P 500 index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen), which set a new all-time high yesterday, surpassing 6,280.
The bullish momentum has been driven by robust labour market data in the US. According to ForexFactory, analysts had anticipated a rise in the unemployment rate from 4.2% to 4.3%, but instead, it unexpectedly declined to 4.1%.
Can the stock market continue to climb?
Technical Analysis of the S&P 500 Chart
Analysing the 4-hour chart of the S&P 500 index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen)on 30 June, we observed the following:
→ An ascending channel was formed (indicated in blue);
→ A developing bullish impulse (marked with an orange line) suggested the price would move towards the upper boundary of the channel – a scenario that materialised with yesterday’s rally (as shown by arrow 1).
However, from a price action perspective, the recent downward move (arrow 2) has now gained significance. It may indicate that sellers are becoming more active around the identified resistance level.
Should the price decline towards the lower orange line, this could negate the current bullish impulse altogether, effectively reflecting a classic bearish engulfing pattern.
Given the above, there is reason to believe that bears are attempting to regain control after the S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) surged over 5% in the past 10 days. As such, a potential breakout below the orange line cannot be ruled out, with price action possibly targeting the median of the blue ascending channel.
What happens next?
The market’s trajectory will largely hinge on developments related to tariffs. Trade policy will remain in the spotlight next week, as key deadlines set by the White House approach — events that traders will be closely monitoring.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
SPX500 at New ATH – Will NFP Fuel the Next Leg Up? SPX500 Outlook: Trade Optimism Fades as Focus Shifts to U.S. Jobs Data
Caution prevails ahead of today’s high-impact U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report, which could be pivotal for the July rate cut narrative. A weaker print may support risk assets and push SPX500 higher, while a strong report could dampen momentum.
Technical Analysis (SPX500):
SPX500 has printed a new all-time high and is now targeting 6287, especially if the index closes above 6246 on the 1H chart.
As long as price holds above 6225 (pivot), the bias remains bullish, with potential upside targets: 6287 & 6325
However, a 4H close below 6213 would suggest a correction toward: 6190 & 6143
Key Levels:
• Resistance: 6287 / 6325
• Support: 6190 / 6143
Stay alert — today's NFP report could trigger major moves across indices and FX.
XAUUSD $3500 Recovery? Reverse Heads and Shoulders? 🔎 STRUCTURE & TECHNICAL ELEMENTS
1. Pattern:
A falling wedge was formed and broken cleanly to the upside → bullish reversal structure.
Breakout was followed by a successful retest at prior structure lows (marked “Clear Breakout and Retest”).
2. Fair Value Gap (FVG 1D) Zone:
Currently being tested. This zone coincides with:
Minor support from prior consolidation
Fib retracement (0.5 level)
Potential demand area (watch for bullish reaction/candle structure here)
3. Volume Profile:
3,350 = POC (Point of Control) → heavy resistance.
3,300 = Secondary HVN → strong support below current price.
Low-volume nodes just under current price → if broken, price likely accelerates into the GP zone.
4. Fibonacci & Liquidity Confluence:
Golden Pocket (3287) just below 3,300 = ideal liquidity draw if FVG fails.
Target 1 / 2 / 3 above are Fibonacci-based projections + historical swing zones.
✅ SCENARIO 1: Bullish Case – FVG Holds
If price respects the FVG 1D zone, expect:
Continuation up toward Target One (~3,430)
Extension to Target Two (~3,470) and even Target Three (~3,540+) possible
Confirmation: Bullish engulfing / high-volume bounce / sweep of intraday lows without close below FVG
Bias: Bullish continuation as long as price holds above FVG/0.5 Fib
🚨 SCENARIO 2: Bearish Case – FVG Breaks Down
If price closes below FVG zone, particularly below 3,312:
High probability drop toward 3,300 (psych level)
Liquidity sweep and deeper correction into Golden Pocket (~3,287) likely
This area can act as a high-probability long re-entry zone
Bias: Short-term bearish if close below FVG + swing structure invalidation
⚖️ REFINED SUMMARY
Price rejects off FVG - we can expect target 1 and 2 tagged.
Price breaks & closes below FVG zone - we can expect it to drop/wick to 3,300
S&P500 bullish ahead of US employment- NFP numbersHouse Republicans moved Trump’s major tax and spending bill closer to a final vote, which could happen before his July 4 deadline. The package includes tax cuts, immigration funding, and the rollback of green energy incentives. Gamblers are raising concerns about a tax increase in the bill that could affect them.
In trade news, the US eased export rules on chip design software to China as part of an ongoing deal. China’s tone has shifted more positively, with a top official saying he’s hopeful about US-China relations and that conflict between the two is “unimaginable.”
At the Fed, Chair Jerome Powell hasn’t said if he’ll step down when his term ends in May, adding uncertainty. Trump, who wants a loyal replacement, has called for his resignation after a federal agency accused Powell of giving misleading testimony about expensive Fed building renovations.
On Wall Street, value investing made a comeback last quarter. Over 60% of active value fund managers beat their benchmarks by buying cheap industrial stocks and avoiding underperforming sectors like utilities and consumer staples.
Conclusion:
US equities are steady but cautious. Uncertainty around Fed leadership and Trump’s economic plans is keeping markets in check, while improving US-China trade relations and a shift toward value stocks are offering support.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 6260
Resistance Level 2: 6307
Resistance Level 3: 6355
Support Level 1: 6130
Support Level 2: 6090
Support Level 3: 6055
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
$TSLA Time to Fade or..?NASDAQ:TSLA (like NASDAQ:GOOG ) is standing out to me as bullish, yet, corrective Elliot Waves a higher degree series of ABCs appear to be underway.
A final wave C appears to be underway which would take price too all time highs in an expanded flat correction pattern. My count could be wrong and the interference could be from the increase it sentiment volatility connected to the US headlines lately and Trump posting on socials. Things may get back to normal after the summer and a clearer pattern may emerge.
Price is struggling to get past the weekly pivot point bullishly or the weekly 200EMS bearishly and is trapped within that range.
For now long term target is the R2 daily pivot at $693 as the higher probability is continued upside
Safe trading
$SPX500 Most Hated Rally to Continue?FOREXCOM:SPX500 continues into price discovery suggesting a wave (3) is still underway but nearing a its minimum target of the 1.618 Fibonacci extension target $6310. Overextension of this target will demonstrate an even stronger bullish outlook.
Long term terminal targets remains above $7000 for me.
A short term pull back is a high probability but markets can stay irrational longer than participants can stay liquid.
Safe trading
Datadog's S&P 500 Entry: A New Tech Paradigm?Datadog (DDOG), a leading cloud observability platform, recently marked a significant milestone with its inclusion in the S&P 500 index. This pivotal announcement, made on July 2, 2025, confirmed Datadog's replacement of Juniper Networks (JNPR), effective before the opening of trading on Wednesday, July 9. The unscheduled change followed Hewlett-Packard Enterprise Co.'s (HPE) completion of its acquisition of Juniper Networks on the same day. The market reacted robustly, with Datadog shares surging by approximately 9.40% in extended trading following the news, reaching a five-month high and underscoring the anticipated "index effect" from passive fund inflows. Datadog's market capitalization, approximately $46.63 billion as of July 2, 2025, significantly exceeded the updated S&P 500 minimum threshold of $22.7 billion, effective July 1, 2025.
Datadog's financial performance further solidifies its position. The company reported $762 million in revenue and $24.6 million in GAAP net income for the first quarter of 2025. For the full year 2024, Datadog generated $2.68 billion in revenue. While the document suggested a cloud observability market valued at "over $10 billion," independent verification from sources like Mordor Intelligence indicates the "observability platform market" was valued at approximately $2.9 billion in 2025, projected to grow at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 15.9% to reach $6.1 billion by 2030. Other analyses, like Market Research Future, project the "Full-Stack Observability Services Market" to be $8.56 billion in 2025 with a higher CAGR of 22.37% through 2034, highlighting varying market definitions. Datadog operates within a competitive landscape, facing rivals such as Elastic and cloud giants like Amazon and Microsoft, alongside Cisco, which completed its acquisition of Splunk on March 18, 2024.
The S&P committee's decision to include Datadog, despite other companies like AppLovin boasting a higher market capitalization of $114.65 billion (as of July 2, 2025), underscores a strategic preference for foundational enterprise technology addressing critical infrastructure needs. This move signals an evolving S&P 500 that increasingly reflects software-defined infrastructure management and analytics as a core economic driver, moving beyond traditional hardware or consumer-facing software. While Workday's inclusion was cited as occurring in 2012 in the original document, it was added to the S&P 500 effective December 23, 2024, preceding its significant growth in the enterprise SaaS sector. Datadog's ascension thus serves as a powerful signal of the technological segments achieving critical mass and institutional validation, guiding future investment and strategic planning in the enterprise technology landscape.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 7-1 : Post Market UpdateToday was a very powerful day for the Cycle Patterns - particularly for Gold and BTCUSD.
Gold rallied as the Cycle Pattern predicted a RALLY in TREND mode.
BTCUSD collapsed on a CRUSH Cycle Pattern.
The SPY Cycle Pattern predicted a Gap Reversal pattern. We did see the Gap today and a moderate reversal in price. But the SPY, as usual, continued to try to melt upward.
I highlighted a very interesting TWINNING pattern in Bitcoin in this video. Pay attention.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
S&P500 key trading level at 6130Trade Tensions:
Trump has threatened higher tariffs on Japan, criticising its refusal to import U.S. rice.
The EU is open to a trade deal with the U.S. involving a 10% universal tariff on many exports, but seeks lower rates for key sectors like pharmaceuticals and semiconductors.
Markets:
U.S. equity futures are steady after the S&P 500 posted its best quarter since 2023.
Focus remains on trade developments and ongoing disputes in Washington over a major $3.3 trillion tax bill.
Canadian stocks are outperforming, led by gold miners, as investors seek safe-haven hedges amid tariff risks.
U.S. Tax Bill:
Republican leaders are struggling to secure votes.
A controversial AI regulation amendment was rejected.
Yale economists estimate the bill would cost the bottom 20% of earners $560/year, while the top 20% gain $6,055/year on average.
Corporate News:
Apple may use OpenAI or Anthropic’s AI to upgrade Siri, potentially sidelining its own AI models.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 6260
Resistance Level 2: 6310
Resistance Level 3: 6350
Support Level 1: 6130
Support Level 2: 6090
Support Level 3: 6055
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
SPX500 | Bulls Need Break Above 6225 to Regain ControlSPX500 | Market Overview
The price has reached the previously mentioned resistance level at 6225.
As long as it trades below 6225, a technical correction is likely, with downside targets at 6161 and 6143. From there, the index would need to stabilize above 6143 to resume a bullish structure.
However, a 1H candle close below 6143 would confirm a deeper bearish move toward 6098.
On the upside, a 1H close above 6225 would reinforce bullish momentum, with potential to reach 6250 and 6287.
Key Technical Levels
Pivot Level: 6191
Support: 6161 / 6143 / 6098
Resistance: 6225 / 6250 / 6287
S&P 500 Outlook. Best Quarter Since 2023… But What Next?The S&P 500 just logged its best quarterly performance since Q4 2023 , surging on optimism around global trade negotiations and growing expectations that the Fed may begin cutting rates as early as September. US futures are green this morning, thanks to developments like Canada backing off digital taxes, ongoing dialogues with China ahead of the July 9 deadline, and risk-on sentiment is pushing yields and the dollar lower.
But as traders, we need to ask:
Are we witnessing a genuine economic inflection point? Or is this just a liquidity-driven rally that’s pricing in a best-case scenario?
Technical View
Support Zone: 6,150 was just broken through. And 6000, the round number level, coinciding with the 20-day EMA and previous swing level.
Resistance Levels: 6,235 is the next critical ceiling, a clean breakout could see price reach the extension level of 6,415.
Momentum Indicators: RSI remains elevated and is creeping toward the overbought. While momentum is strong, watch out for the possible development of a divergence.
Possible Scenarios
The 'Soft Landing’ Is Now the Base Case
Markets are trading as if the Fed has successfully engineered a soft landing. But that’s now fully priced in, and historically, the most dangerous trades are the ones everyone agrees on. If trade talks stall, inflation re-accelerates, or earnings disappoint, the reversal could be brutal and fast.
Risk-on Sentiment Without Volume Is a Yellow Flag
Despite the price strength, volume has been tapering off. The S&P’s recent leg up occurred on lighter-than-average participation, suggesting institutions may be watching, not chasing. That’s often the case in low-volatility summers, but it also implies that any negative catalyst could cause outsized downside moves.
Macro-Fundamentals May Not Justify Valuation Expansion
Yes, inflation is slowing, and the Fed might cut. But if they do, it’s likely because growth is weakening, not because the economy is roaring. So the very condition that triggers rate cuts could also cap earnings growth!
Projection
Bullish Scenario: A confirmed breakout above 6,280 could carry us toward 6,400–6,500 by mid-Q3, especially if the trade deals progress, July inflation comes in soft, and the Fed signals accommodation.
Bearish Risk: If price fails to hold above 6,120, especially if trade optimism fades, or inflation growth spikes or Fed rhetoric shifts hawkish again, this could then open a quick pullback toward 6,000 or lower, which also aligns with the 50-day SMA.
Key Events to Watch
July 9 Trade Talks Deadline: Any sign of stalling could bring volatility back fast.
June CPI Print (July 10): Crucial for confirming the Fed's next move.
Earnings Season Kickoff (mid-July): Tech-heavy expectations may not be easy to beat after such a strong run.
Conclusion
A record-setting quarter is impressive but not necessarily predictive. This quarter’s rally has been built more on relief and expectations than hard data. When expectations (not earnings) are doing the heavy lifting, any misstep from central banks or geopolitics could unravel gains rapidly.
A rate cut might be delayed, or inflation re-accelerates, or trade talks stall; any of these could leave equities hanging. Remember: the higher the climb without real earnings growth, the harder the fall when sentiment shifts. It's not just about the chart. It is about the narrative behind the price.
What’s your bias for Q3?
Are you buying this breakout or fading the optimism? Drop your thoughts below.
GOOGL is facing resistance 181.11NASDAQ:GOOGL
Google is in uptrend . Currently it is facing the resistance 181.11.
It has slightly pull backed from the resistance.
Pattern : Ascending channel - a bullish chart pattern. To valid this pattern the price has to consistently make higher highs and higher lows. But the price is now facing the resistance 181.11 To make higher high it has to break it.
If it fails to break the resistance , sideways trend may be seen here for short period of time and bullish momentum may become weak.
Note :
If you’re interested in receiving detailed technical analysis reports on your selected stocks, feel free to reach out to me. I can provide you with customized reports covering trends, key levels, momentum, patterns, and price projections to support your trading or investment decisions.
AAPL Significant Event NASDAQ:AAPL
1. Bullish Breakout :
In the daily chart bullish breakout has been seen. If the bullish momentum is strong, the price may follow the upward.
2. Target Price : Potential target price 214
3. Risk Factors:
A. Failure to breakout the resistance 206
B. Sideways trend may be started.
C. Broader market weakness or correction
D. False Breakouts
---------------------
Note :
If you’re interested in receiving detailed technical analysis reports on your selected stocks, feel free to reach out to me. I can provide you with customized reports covering trends, key levels, momentum, patterns, and price projections to support your trading or investment decisions.
S&P 500 Sets New All-Time High, Surges Above 6200S&P 500 Sets New All-Time High, Surges Above 6200
The S&P 500 index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) started the week by reaching a fresh all-time high. As shown on the chart, the index hit 6,210 points earlier this morning.
In addition to a reduced risk of US involvement in a large-scale war in the Middle East, market optimism has been fuelled by:
→ Tariff-related news. Last week, the US President announced the signing of a trade deal with China, while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent expressed hope that the US would conclude trade negotiations with over a dozen countries by early September.
→ Strong corporate performance. On Friday, Nike (NKE) shares led the stock market, rising by more than 15% following an earnings report that exceeded analysts’ expectations. This could be boosting investor sentiment ahead of the upcoming earnings season.
Technical Analysis of the S&P 500 Chart
Evaluating the 4-hour chart of the S&P 500 index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) in the context of June’s price movements reveals key reference points (marked on the chart) that outline an ascending channel. A consolidation zone, marked with an arrow, highlights a temporary equilibrium between supply and demand—after which buyers gained the upper hand, pushing the price upward.
It is possible that the ongoing bullish momentum could carry the price toward the upper boundary of the channel. However, attention should be paid to the RSI indicator, which suggests the market is heavily overbought; in fact, Friday’s reading marked the highest level of the year. In such conditions, a price correction cannot be ruled out—potentially back toward the local ascending trendline (shown in orange).
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
SPX500 Extends Rally on Fed Hopes and China Trade DealS&P 500 Set to Extend Record Highs
U.S. stock futures climbed on Friday, continuing this week’s strong momentum on hopes of eased trade tensions and growing confidence in multiple Fed rate cuts later this year.
Futures tied to the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 pointed to fresh record-high openings, while the Dow Jones was set to rise by 150 points.
Adding to the bullish tone, Commerce Secretary Lutnick announced a trade agreement with China, reducing tariff risks and easing concerns over rare earth shortages.
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK – SPX500
The index has broken into new all-time highs (ATH) and stabilized above the 6,143 resistance level, confirming bullish strength.
As long as the price trades above 6,143, the uptrend is likely to continue toward 6,225, with potential short-term pullbacks to 6,143.
A 1H candle close below 6,143 could trigger a deeper correction toward the pivot zone at 6,098.
Key Levels
Resistance: 6,175 → 6,225
Support: 6,098 → 6,041
previous idea:
SP500 - Cycle Analysis; New V-Bottom24 Dec 2018 - V-Bottom Trough:
This marks a clean V-bottom. Both the 227-ROC and 114-ROC showed simultaneous positive acceleration after price reacing its low. Shortly after, both crossed their 57-SMA almost in sync — increasing the probability of a sustained bullish move. Price confirmed this by breaking resistance and forming a V pattern. This was further validated by the centered moving average crossover (114-CMA crossing above 227-CMA).
25 Mar 2020 - Deep COVID Crash Trough:
During this phase the priced broke below the support, creating a deep trough. Altough both ROC lines initially showed strong negative acceleration due to the COVID-19 crash, they soon reversed above their 57-SMAs, signaling a major shift in momentum. This coincided with the price breaking above the key resistance which was also crossed in 2019 when confirming the old V-pattern. After this breakout, a brief pullback followed before the uptrend resumed with increasing strength.
22 Jun 2021 to 19 Dec 2023 - Pattern
During the initial period a bearish divergence was visible in the ROC, nevertheless price and rate of change both declined making a low in early October 2022. A technical pattern began to form, which appears to align more closely with a symmetrical triangle; So when measuring its height and projecting it from the breakout point aligns with the new all-time highs that were reached on 27 June 2025.
21 Mar 2025 - New Cycle Trough
A new V-bottom formed shortly after the current cycle began. Both ROC indicators had already crossed their SMAs to the upside, showing early signs of positive acceleration, days before of price broke through the resistance and reached the new record high.
The 227-SMA is likely to cross from below the fast SMA while a possibility of a pullback increase.
Following that, the 114-CMA will probably has the chance to cross back the 227-CMA, with the price potentially confirming a new support level and resuming its uptrend - in line with the broader cycle timeline.
S&P 500 BULLISH GRAB: Steal These Gains Before the Trap Closes!🚨 E-MINI S&P 500 HEIST: Bullish Loot Before the Market Turns (Thief Trading Blueprint) 🚨
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🔥 Thief Trading Intel: We're targeting ES1! (E-Mini S&P500) for a potential bullish breakout! Long entry only—approaching high-risk Red Zone: overbought, consolidating, and ready for a move. Don't let the bears steal your profits!
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📈 "Swipe bullish positions at any price—the heist is ON!"
Buy Limit orders near swing lows/highs (15-30 min TF)
📌 Pro Tip: SET PRICE ALERTS! Don't miss the move
🛑 STOP LOSS: Escape Route
📍 Smart Thief SL: Nearest swing low (4H timeframe)
📍 Adjust based on your risk tolerance & position size
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🎯 6260.00 (or exit early if the market turns)
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📢 WHY THIS HEIST? (S&P 500 Setup)
Neutral trend with bullish potential! Watch for:
Fundamentals (COT, Macro Data, Geopolitics)
Market Sentiment & Sector Rotation
Index-Specific Patterns
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