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S&P 500 (SPX500)

S&P sets new high but weakness is mountingLast week, the market traded within a narrow range, yet still managed to reach new highs. The bulls remain in control of both the daily and weekly timeframes, although I’m not entirely comfortable with the structure that has developed over the past five days. Most of the growth occurred during extended hours, while during regular trading hours, the market either remained in a tight range or moved downward. This structure is fragile and could easily break, though I’m not ready to call for shorts just yet. Firstly, it hasn’t broken. We're still in a bullish wave on the daily timeframe — in the past two weeks, none of the days have closed below the previous day's low. Secondly, even if the structure breaks, we should not expect significant follow-through, as the market remains very bullish. Here's a quick recap of the key points supporting the bullish thesis (you can find the rest in my previous review): 1. The Fed cut interest rates by 0.5 percentage points, which is positive for both the economy and the stock market for several reasons, such as cheaper borrowing costs. 2. The SPX has reached a new all-time high, which is highly bullish. 3. Both the weekly and daily charts show a strong uptrend. For the market to reverse, there would need to be a significant shift in sentiment, likely triggered by some fundamental event. From a technical standpoint, the uptrend remains intact as long as the bulls hold the previous major low ( 538 ). Until then, any "red" waves should be viewed as mere pullbacks within the broader upward movement.
AMEX:SPY
by hermes_trisme
SPX500 H4 | Bullish uptrend to extend?SPX500 is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher. Buy entry is at 5,709.32 which is a pullback support. Stop loss is at 5,670.00 which is a level that lies underneath the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. Take profit is at 5,825.45 which is a level that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension level. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 62% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
FX:SPX500Long
by FXCM
1
S&P 500 Weakness Relative to Gold?In this weekly chart of the S&P 500 Index denominated in gold (SPX/XAU), I’m observing a noticeable loss of momentum (relative to gold prices). This is evidenced by the decreasing gap between the 50 EMA (Exponential Moving Average) and the 130 EMA at the latest local high compared to the previous one. Additionally, there is a shift in the 'behavior' of these moving averages — they have entered a phase of 'indecision' regarding trend direction. This is quite significant because, for decades, these moving averages have reliably provided a single crossover, followed by a clean multi-year trend. The last period when there were as many crossovers between the 50 and 130 EMAs within such a short time span was between early 1967 and late 1971. The period marked by the final MA-crossover of that range ultimately led to a dramatic decline of about 95% relative to gold, lasting approximately 8 years and 5 months, culminating in a bottom in January 1980. I also see additional evidence in the form of price struggling to hold above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level from the major cycle peak of late 2000. While price did break above this level several times in 2021 and even managed to hold above it for about six weeks (late November 2021 through early January 2022), it has since failed to reclaim that level. The most recent attempt in February of this year led to a rejection that resulted in a 16% decline over the subsequent eight weeks. Currently, the price relative to gold remains about 15% below that critical level. If we consider that a 72% decline in the S&P 500 (relative to gold) would be required to revisit the major cycle low seen in early September 2011, it’s clear that there’s significant room for downward movement. It’s important to note that the S&P 500 could continue delivering positive returns in nominal terms for years to come, regardless of how it performs against gold. The point here is to highlight a potential argument for relative weakness in the S&P 500 when compared to gold, which has been a strong performer so far this year. If this chart is indicative of broader trends, gold has a good chance to continue outperforming, even if this index continues to grind upward.
SP:SPX
by JamesBrown
#202440 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500 e-miniGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr sp500: The big bull trend line from 2022-01 + 2022-07 is valid so far and forms a broad bull channel with the April + August low. We are at the top and until bulls can not break strongly above 5800, that price is resistance. Bears not doing enough, so I am neutral until one side gains momentum. Also continues inside nested bull wedges and the smallest will break out next week. Quote from last week: comment: Bears did absolutely nothing last week except selling highs. Not a single daily bar below the previous one. Very strong buying with resulted in an obvious new ath on Thursday. Are bulls done or will we get hit 5800? Most likely we will hit it because of the obvious liquidity grab (stop running) above it. comment: Second week in a row where bears could not get a single daily bar below the previous daily low. Small pullback bull trend where we slowly grind higher. We are again at the highs of multiple patterns and betting on a breakout is a bad trade. You can literally buy any pullback and make money and until this changes, buy them. Just make sure to have tight stops at the highs. current market cycle: nested bull wedges key levels: 5750 - 5850 bull case: Not much different to last week, since we are only 30 points higher. Bulls need a very strong daily bar above 5840 to make more traders believe in a breakout above. For now it’s very low probability they get it. Bulls are in full BTFD mode on every small dip and you should join them until they start making lower lows. Invalidation is below 5770. bear case: Bears Need a lower low below the previous daily bar. Once they start getting that and make the market go sideways instead of up, they can start talking. Good for them is, that we barely move higher but we sure as s*** are not moving lower either. Once bulls stop buying the highs, a decent pullback can easily get us to the daily ema down to 5730. Invalidation is above 5840. outlook last week: short term : Neutral around 5760. No interest in buying besides small long scalps on the 5m or lower tf for 5800. Market is contracting in a tight range, best not to do anything and wait for a clear breakout. → Last Sunday we traded 5762 and now we are at 5791. Neutral was very good since we barely moved. Not doing anything here is also very decent. short term: Neutral. Next breakout will come soon. I expect Monday/Tuesday since the small bull wedge has no more room to go and we are at the upper bull trend line for the bigger one. I am not a fortune teller so I don’t know which side it will break out to. You don’t have a magic mirror either so just be prepared for the breakout and wait for it to happen. You never ever want to be the first in a trade. The odds are so stacked against you in the long run, you can not make a living being the first as a retail trader. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-22: Very much like my outlook in dax. Trading range on the daily chart and we are at the highs. We could make higher ones or not. Does not matter much. I expect at least 5300 to be hit again in 2024. current swing trade: None chart update: None
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Sep 27, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: The S&P 500 Index has recently exhibited a classic gap-fill pattern, reaching 5739 with an adjusted Index Rally to 5763 during the current week's trading sessions. However, there is a strong likelihood of a retracement to the newly established Mean Support at 5700 in the upcoming week. This potential retracement could lead to a further descent to the subsequent Mean Support level at 5620, potentially disrupting the current trajectory. Conversely, a substantial rebound to the Outer Index Rally at 5840 may intercept an anticipated downward trend, nullifying the projected decline.
SP:SPX
by TradeSelecter
spx &nasdaq in an iminent drop of valuespx showing an iminent short going in value, where it can go? last time i tryed to do the math it would go arround 2700 but without any sure, the major stock whealtiest did a 3x wealth since covid drop, this could be another timer that can quintuple the value, or make more 15x time the value that they had before covid, it is an iminent drop coming, in my opinion, good for everyone even for world economies, to triple their whealth and put the profits in their balance sheet and put time their gdp growth, is a question of timing, after covid drop, that in my opinion, didnt had too much growth in manufactories and jobs, only people gowing ther whealth by the 'inflation' fault, anyway, there is an iminent drop in the stock market in the western countries, at least, im not into asian market but american indexes are in an eminent significant drop, in my POV.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by Carlosdrcunha
The S&P rally continues, defying all fears of a recessionLast week was marked by erratic price movements, leading many to recall the old adage, "no trade might be your best trade." The most confusing (and devastating) price action occurred on Thursday following the FOMC's interest rate decision. The Fed cut rates by 0.5 percentage points, sparking fears of an upcoming recession. Wednesday ended with a strong bearish "falling star" candle, tempting traders to take large SHORT positions. To be honest, I would have likely done the same if I had been trading that day (luckily, I wasn’t), as the least one would have expected was an overnight rally that wiped out short positions when the market opened on Thursday. This series of events is a perfect example of what makes trading so challenging— even a solid setup can fail spectacularly without any clear reason. Now, let's try to assess the current situation : 1. The Fed cut rates by 0.5 percentage points – This is actually positive for the economy and the stock market for many reasons (e.g. cheaper borrowing costs). At the same time there are no objective signs of a recession, only fears. 2. The SPX reached a new all-time high – How can this be bearish? 3. Both weekly and daily charts show a strong uptrend. 4. Almost all major SPX sectors closed the week strong, reflecting investor confidence. In summary, the market remains very bullish , with no indication that the trend is reversing anytime soon. Short term price action might be erratic, but long-term things look good both from technical and fundamental perspectives. Let’s stay calm and prudent. Important levels: Last major weekly high (538). As long as it holds buyers have control over weekly chart.
AMEX:SPYLong
by hermes_trisme
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 9-27 : Gap Potential PatternToday's Gap Potential will likely resolve in an opening price gap to the upside. I believe the current price bias, which is still to the upside, will prompt a higher opening price gap followed by a moderate bullish trend today. I will warn you that an afternoon consolidation period heading into the weekend is not out of the question. So, be prepared for a flat trading range after Noon (NY) lasting possibly 60-90 minutes. The close of trading today could prompt a fairly big price trend (an end-of-day Squeeze). This is capital moving out of the markets before the weekend, and it could prompt a big opportunity for traders. My guess is it would be to the upside, but it really depends on how price reacts throughout the day. Right now, I would guess the upward price squeeze will change by 55 to 65% at the end of the day. Overall, I believe today will be rather muted for the SPY, QQQ, Gold, Silver, and BTCUSD. Yesterday's big CRUSH bar is the volatility event this week (setting new higher highs and higher lows), followed by today's price action, which will settle ahead of next week. So, today, it will likely show moderate trending with periods of flat/consolidation. The end of the day may show a more aggressive "Squeeze" trend - but we'll see if that happens. Either way, play the chart. Play what is in front of you, and don't get trapped in any longer-term expectations. There will be lots of opportunities next week for bigger trends. Get Some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
4
Hellena | SPX500 (4H): Long to area 5791 (Wave 3).Dear colleagues, it seems that the price continues the upward movement in the wave “3” of the higher and lower order. This means that two scenarios are possible: 1) I expect a small correction to the area of 50% Fibonacci level 5550, then continuation of the upward movement. 2) Price will continue the upward movement in wave “1”, possibly immediately to the area of 5791. Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by Hellena_Trade
9
Bullish Stocks, But Watch Pullbacks and Gaps On SP500The stock market has been very bullish over the last two weeks, with strong gains this week following China's policy actions to support their economy. This has had a positive impact on stocks globally, and it’s no surprise to see the S&P 500 trading higher. Looking at the December futures contract, from an Elliott Wave perspective, we can clearly see a five-wave movement up from the September 9th low. While this bullish momentum continues, it’s important to be cautious as we may be nearing potential resistance in this fifth wave, around the 5,820 to 5,880 area. I think that pullbacks could occur in the next few days, especially if USD stays up with yields. If we do see a correction, the key levels to watch would be the previous swing supports, with the first at 5,754 followed by 5,674. These levels also correspond to regions of open gaps on the cash market, and typically when such gaps are filled, the market can resume its primary trend, which is up. So, if an ABC drop occurs into one of these gaps, it could present an opportunity to rejoin the uptrend in the stock market.
CBOE:SPX
by ew-forecast
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 9-26 : CRUSH In Trend ModeAnd here we go.. If you've been following my research/videos for the past few weeks, you already know how accurate and valuable my research/content is for traders. I'm using common techniques: Fibonacci Price Theory, Technical Analysis, Candlesticks, and quite a bit of my own proprietary research to share insights and information with all of you. The point behind all of this is to help you become a better, more skilled trader - and to learn to be patient while waiting for the best trade setups. Today, we'll see the benefits of waiting out the last 5+ days of price consolidation and how price moves in only two modes: trending or flagging. Today is a trending phase. It seems like all the pressure of capital flow (after the Fed rate cut) is finally starting to hit as the US markets attempt to make a big move. Remember, the top in the SPY should be between 595-605. The top in the QQQ should be near 505. The top in Gold (temporary peak) should be near 2720-2735. And the top in Silver should be near 34.50-35.00. I'm still expecting BTCUSD to roll downward over the next 2-3 weeks - targeting 60,150. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by BradMatheny
10
QQQs Break Above Unique High Level On Moderate VolumeAnother sign the markets are attempting to break away from sideways/topping patterns is today's closing price on the QQQs. Today's close above the Unique Fibonacci Price Theory High suggests the QQQs are attempting to break away from the Excess Phase Peak pattern and will likely attempt to move up into the 501-502 price range. Remember, the first rule of Fibonacci Price Theory is Price must always attempt to reach new higher highs or lower lows. When it fails to make a lower low, it must roll over and attempt to reach a new higher high. In this case, as we neared to top of the Excess Phase Peak pattern, the Ultimate High, price would either fail to make a new higher high (and attempt to roll downward) or it would break to a new higher high (thus confirming price is still in a Rally Phase). Today's close means my analysis of the general markets moving into a "cleared for takeoff" rally phase is starting to become much more valid. We have broken above the Ultimate High on the QQQs with moderate volume. Now, we should expect the QQQs to attempt to move higher - toward the 501-502 level. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by BradMatheny
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 9-25 : Carryover in Carryover ModeToday's carryover trend will likely prompt a moderate meltdown in the SPY and QQQ. Pay attention to how the QQQ is still transitioning away from the shorter-term (blue) Excess Phase Peak pattern while the SPY has broken both the long-term and short-term Excess Phase Peak patterns. In my opinion, this suggests the markets are still struggling to move higher overall. The recent Fed rate cut will prompt the markets to shift attention towards more undervalued stock sectors. This will prompt a fairly broad-market rally phase to settle into place. However, the US elections, which are only about 35 days away, act as an "uncertainty factor" for the markets. Thus, we have a very interesting dynamic. The markets want to transition into a fairly broad rally while uncertainty and concern related to US policy and leadership are becoming increasingly contentious. This translates into volatility, and I believe the markets are set up for a DEEP-V type of Flash Price move over the next 30 days. This is why I'm urging traders to stay cautious of a big volatility event after October 10-14. In the meantime, the SPY and QQQ should attempt to rally a bit higher, and Gold will try to reach $2710-2720. BTCUSD, on the other hand, looks like it will roll downward, targeting the $60,150 level. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
15
2024-09-24 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - More continuation of the expected. Bears trying to get lower with some spikes but enough bulls are happy to buy it. We will have a breakout either tomorrow or Thursday because one side will give up. As of now I favor the bulls for another leg up to kill the last shorts. (does not apply to DJI for example, where we basically make new ATH daily) sp500 e-mini futures comment: 1h chart tells the story. Bulls buy every dip but are not finding enough buyers above 5790 to push for 5800. One side will give up soon and I expect it to be the bears. This is the last push bulls have inside the smallest wedge and it’s either breakout above or below tomorrow. Don’t over analyze 50 point trading ranges. Clear support and resistance and you have to buy in the lower third and sell in the upper one until it clearly does not work anymore. current market cycle: trading range (bull wedge) key levels: 5730 - 5800 bull case: Bulls are poking at 5800. Couple more times and bears will probably give up. If we get above 5800, I don’t expect market to stop there. Might as well do a spike to 5850 or so. Look for longs around the 4h ema which is currently at 5768. Every touch has been bought for two weeks. Invalidation is below 5750. bear case: Bears need a lower low below 5750. They manage to print some spikes but no follow through what so ever. I don’t think they will fight 5800 much longer. We have almost daily bad news and market refuses to sell. Get the hint. Probably a gigantic short squeeze coming before we meaningfully correct before the year end rally. Invalidation is above 5810. short term: Buy low sell high inside given levels but breakout will most likely happen tomorrow. Can wait for it and hop along. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01: Very much like my outlook in dax. Trading range on the daily chart and we are at the highs. We could make higher ones or not. Does not matter much. I expect 5000 to be hit again in 2024. current swing trade: Nope trade of the day: Buying 5775 and selling 5790. Sometimes it’s not rocket science but still hard to do mentally.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
GOLD Makes A Big Move Targeting $2720Even though my Gold Cycle Patterns suggested Gold would consolidate a bit in early trading this week, the big breakout move today shows just how undervalued Gold really is. Yes, my Gold Cycle Patterns did not predict this upward price move clearly. This is an example where my patterns/expectations did not match exactly what price did. it happens. You could say my expectations were a bit behind the trend or the trend was a bit ahead of my expectations - but either way this move surprised me. Clearly, gold is making a big move and my upper target is 2710-2720. Today's move will likely stall out near 2685, then contract to levels near 2670-2675. Remember, Gold really wants to rally up to 2710-2720+. So, you have quite a bit of time to play this move efficiently. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
COMEX:GC1!Long
by BradMatheny