SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 12/24/2024 : Rally111Please pay attention to this video. Today, I share some vital data related to how I plan on helping all of you become better traders in 2025 and what you need to do to try to improve your own trading results.
Trading is not gambling. It is not about throwing money at trends and hoping to catch a few winners.
Trading is about trying to time market trends when the best opportunities are ready for profits - then getting out of those opportunities as profits start to mature.
Trading is about honing your skills to be able to target 35% to 55% or more every 15 to 25+ days.
If you can do that efficiently every 15 to 25+ days, then you are SET.
You can turn $1000 into more than $300k in less than a year trading like that. Then, you can turn that $300k into more than $10 million in another year.
Can you imagine that happening to you and your family?
It is all about having the right tools, gaining proper knowledge and experience, and putting that to practice/use. And that is what I've been trying to teach you for the past 6+ months - the knowledge and skills to be able to see/time the biggest market moves.
I know many of you have followed me for many months. I appreciate all of you. Now, as we close out 2024, let's make a commitment to really focus on gaining the success we desire for ourselves and our families so we can enjoy 2025 as a better year.
I challenge all of you to a straightforward goal: Learn, Practice, Gain experience, and Execute better trades so you can grow your accounts and move into the "Trader Life" you have always desired.
Trade 2-4 times a day (when opportunity strikes) and try to grow your account by 35 to 55% every 15 to 25 days. That's all it takes.
Are you ready?
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
S&P 500 (SPX500)
Quick technical idea on S&P 500The EASYMARKETS:SPIUSD has been on a roller coaster ride lately. But the main question is, will we see a new all-time high by the end of this year.
Disclaimer:
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2024-12-23 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
sp500 e-mini futures - Neutral. We stayed below Friday’s high but bulls had a really bullish close. Until they get a strong move above 6050, I lean neutral. Above 6050 there is no more resistance until 6100. Bears something below 5965 but for now they could be very happy with any daily close below 6000.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 5950 - 6050
bull case: Very strong close by the bulls. Year end rally is on if they get follow through above 6050 tomorrow. A measured move up from Friday’s rally would bring us 6230+. For now we have a clear bull wedge which leads perfectly to 6100 tomorrow.
Invalidation is below 5800.
bear case: Bears did ok until the breakout above 6030. Now they have a do or die moment again to keep the market below 6050 or they need to cover because market could go all the way up to 6200 or higher.
Invalidation is above 6050.
short term: Neutral. Very bullish close but bulls need follow through above 6050 tomorrow. If they get it, we probably won’t stop until 6100 or higher. Market is in balance around 6000.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-22: Ultimately 5200-5300 in 2025. Again, rough guess as of now and since we have not seen a strong first bear leg, these targets are the lowest I am willing to give an honest outlook about. If bears surprise and we see a huge leg down to 5500, we will go much lower for the second and third leg.
current swing trade: Nope
trade of the day: Selling 6030 before EU open and buying 5985 because of the head & shoulders bottom (head was the low 5965) after US open on the 5m tf.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 12-23: BreakAway PatternToday's pattern is a Break Away pattern.
I'm not expecting much to happen just before Christmas, but this is when surprises may happen.
If you have not already protected your capital - now is the time to do it (almost too late at this point).
You should be prepared for anything that happens and move into a position of safety related to the holidays.
Remember, the markets will always be here. Get through the holidays and get busy trying to enjoy your life.
I suspect the markets will stay very flat over the next 3 to 5+ days.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
Major Indexes Face Downturn: What's Coming Next?◉ S&P 500 SP:SPX
● The long-term trendline support has been breached.
● The immediate support range is identified around the 5,650 to 5,700 levels.
◉ Nasdaq Composite NASDAQ:IXIC
● The Nasdaq Composite has rebounded from its long-term trendline support, demonstrating resilience amid economic uncertainty.
◉ NYSE Composite TVC:NYA
● The NYSE Composite has found support at its trendline and may bounce back from this important level.
◉ Dow Jones Industrial Average TVC:DJI
● After a consecutive decline over ten days, the index has surpassed its trendline support and is approaching the next support zone between 41,500 and 42,800.
Overall, all indices are anticipated to recover shortly, with expectations of robust performance from major stocks.
SPX: Fed`s game of marketsMarkets were happy prior to Fed's rate cut in December in expectation of an additional drop of 25 bps of reference interest rates. However, Fed Chair Powell said something that markets did not expect to hear - inflation is going to be persistent in 2025, hence, Fed would most likely cut rates by only 50 bps during the next year. The correction was immediate, and the S&P 500 dropped from the level of 6,080 down to 5.867. The index recovered a bit during Friday's trading session to the level of 5.930, after cooling inflation data.
All sectors included in the S&P 500 gained on Friday, indicating that the market most probably overreacted during the previous two days. Still, this jump in the market value was not enough to cover weekly losses. A cooling inflation data for November made markets revise their initial projections and value equities at higher levels. Still, considering that the Holiday season in Western markets starts in the middle of the week ahead, it is questionable whether the S&P 500 has the strength to reach for one more time level from two weeks ago.
#202451 - priceactiontds - year end special - sp500 e-miniGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: For the sp500 the start of the bull trend is a bit less clear as for dax. My take is that it started with the 2023-10 low and before that was still the big trading range the main pattern. Does it matter if my wave thesis is off for W1 or where W4 ended? I don’t think it does. My targets (obvious magnets) would still be the same. We have a bull trend that went up a pretty perfect measured move from the Covid low to the 2023-10 low. This will be my biggest target for 2025. We then have a perfect magnet down to the previous ath from 2022-01 at 5300, which is the 50% retracement of the bull trend from 2023-10 to the ath. 5300 will be the first and most important target for the bears in the medium-term. Depending on how we get there, we can estimate on if and how we could get down to 4400. As of now, it is unlikely that we will see 4400 in 2025. Something bigger has to happen and markets need to change drastically. A liquidity event would certainly help.
current market cycle: Bull trend from 2023-10 has likely ended already and we are transitioning into a trading range or new bear trend. By the end of January we will know for sure what it will be.
key levels for 2025: 5000 - 6200
bull case: Since the bigger western indexes are highly correlated, many arguments for them are the same. Past two years gave the bulls 55+% in gains while the biggest pull-back was 10% in 2024-08. The bulls have made money buying the weekly 20ema for a year and they don’t want to stop because this time it surely is different and valuations are boomer metrics for poor people who did not get in on the latest fartcoin pump. I don’t have anything more to say in this section.
Invalidation is below 4400. Below that price, an event has happened or is happening. For now it’s unreasonable to ever think this market could see prices below 4000 again.
bear case: Long ongoing climactic bull trend and every new high got smaller. Bears know the bulls have to take profit at some point, especially after a prolonged period without pull-backs. Once the profit taking get’s going, this will accelerate downwards to find bigger support. The first target for the bears is a daily close below 5900 and then a test of the nearest bull trend line around 5800. We can only expect more sideways once we get there. When bears finally break it, 5500 is the next obvious magnet and we then have only one more big bull trend line left, which is the one from the Covid lows. As mentioned above, the 50% retracement for this trend is as perfect as it get’s the previous ath near 5300 and for now this will be my biggest target to hit in 2025. Again, depending on how we get there, we can either estimate lower targets or expect the market to move sideways in a bigger range.
Invalidation is above 6300.
short term: Same argument for year end rally as for dax. Highest I can see this going for 6250 (give or take) and then we will test the first bull trend line around 5800 over the next weeks. 5500 in Q1 is my estimate as of now.
medium-long term: Ultimately 5200-5300 in 2025. Again, rough guess as of now and since we have not seen a strong first bear leg, these targets are the lowest I am willing to give an honest outlook about. If bears surprise and we see a huge leg down to 5500, we will go much lower for the second and third leg.
current swing trade: None but same argument as for dax. Short ETF until we hit 5300 is reasonable.
Traders BEWARE! Extreme Volatility In 2025-26. LOOK OUT!I just completed a deep dive into my Adaptive Dynamic Learning modeling system, and I'm here to tell you that 2025 and most of 2026 will be highly volatile.
If you do not attempt to stay ahead of these market trends, you could suffer a loss of 35% to 45% (or more) over the next 18 months or more.
If you want to learn how to navigate these trends, I suggest you find someone you trust to help you identify the best opportunities for your investments and trading.
This is no joke.
This is the type of event that destroys trader's accounts and disrupts global economies.
If you are not prepared for this, get busy trying to find someone to help you.
Merry Christmas. Buckle up.
Get Some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
Perhaps a 'Santa Rally' is just one step away to begin in 2024Stock markets often enjoy a seasonal share boost during the festive period.
It's been two unpredictable year for stock markets after gloomy 2022 but all we are, traders, investors, TradingViewers are hoping for a successful end-of-year boost in the form of a so-called Santa rally.
Shares have much wide, breather and better performance so far in 2024, amid trade and geopolitical tensions, high inflation and high interest rate.
So... while children are compiling their Christmas lists, traders also want some sweet candies.
Traditionally, festive cheer and holiday household spending make the markets more optimistic during the holiday season, boosting investor portfolios.
But will 2024 follow the trend?
The "Santa rally", a term coined in 1972 by Yale Hirsch, the founder of the Stock Trader’s Almanac, "describes a tendency for the stock market to go up by 1% to 2%" over final five trading days of the outgoing year and the first two of the new one, said Forbes Advisor .
This period has "historically" shown higher stock prices in the S&P 500 SP:SPX 79.2% of the time, says Investopedia .
What drives the Santa rally?
Reasons for the Santa rally are vary and one explanation is the cheery "end of year mood" that means investors are in more of a "buying temperament" rather than selling shares, which pushes up stock prices
Will there be a Santa rally this year?
Probably, Yes. September quarter capped off the best 12-months return (+36.36%) for S&P500 Index since the pandemic stock market recovery in 2020, so there are a lot of hopes that stars will align, and momentum in the markets, helped by declining U.S. interest rate, will push prices higher in the run-up to Christmas.
Sure, there is "no guarantee", though. Sometimes it happens. Sometimes it is not.
The odds of a Santa rally may be in your favor, but the "best option" (author's opinion) is to do nothing, remain invested and be "pleasantly surprised" by another strong month by the new year.
The main technical graph for S&P500 Index says that we right now.. already somewhere above to 6'000 points for SPX Index, and just one step to break it out to reach the next one half-a-mile, i.e. 6'500 points by the end of the year.
Just follow the major upside trend, that's been taken earlier this summer. And that is all.
Merry Christmas y'all, TradingViewers! See you in a Happy New 2025 Year! 💖💖
Critical Levels in S&P 500 Index this weekNavigating the S&P 500: What to Watch This Christmas Week
If you look at the S&P 500's technical chart, you'll notice something intriguing: Friday's rebound wasn't just any rebound — it came with a surge in volume. The Index is flirting with its 50-day Moving Average, a key indicator with investors on edge. As long as macroeconomic data doesn’t throw any curveballs, there's a promising outlook for a festive rally in the stock market this Christmas week. My eyes are on the 6,000 mark for the SPX as a pivotal point. If the momentum continues, we might even see it touch 6,100, which could be the ceiling for this bullish run.
SPX Hours needed to buy 1 shareHow expensive is the market? The average wage earner has to work 167 hours to buy 1 share of the S&P 500.
A new historic all-time high!
The markets are crazy expensive!
The inflation no one shows you or talks about is driven by massive deficits and cheap money.
Extreme Caution is in order!
SG10Y SG Govt Bond Yield UNCANNY heads up on US EquitiesHere is a rehash of the relationship between the Singapore 10Y Govt Bond Yields and US Equities ETF, SPY (Blue Line).
Noted that when the SG10Y technically breaks out, the SPY technically breaks down, and vice versa.
This is not 100% but happens an estimated 80% of the time, and recent occurences since September are marked out with bullish green or bearish red time lines, respective to SPY from the SG10Y leading indications.
Just middle of this past week, the SG10Y spiked strongly and broke out, the next day saw the SPY tank significantly. In fact, the MACD for the SG10Y had already pre-warned of the breakout two days earlier!
Given the current set up, as usual, I do my technical and charting projections. And in this case, it is clear that the Santa rally fizzled, year closign and next year opening should be weak until early February. Now, if this projection works as it should, then we would likely see a weak 2025 for the US equities... not only to take profit, but also offers opportunities to buy in at some point.
(side note: as far back as 2020, 2025 was marked as the year of some resurgence of affliction from the neck upwards. It is a little sketchy, but it would very well be the surprise to tank the markets enough... watch for it)
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Dec 20, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
During this week's trading, the S&P 500 index exhibited considerable volatility after reaching our critical support level of Mean Support 5870. Subsequently, it demonstrated a robust upward recovery. This development is anticipated to facilitate the impending phase of the renewed interim rebound, with the objective of retesting the Key Resistance level at 6090, thereby paving the way for continuing the bullish trend. However, it is crucial to recognize that a retest of the Mean Support 5870 remains a great possibility.
SPX500 Rebounds: Market Optimism or Fed Reassessment in Focus"The SPX500 is bouncing back from the FOMC sell-off, signaling market optimism or reassessment of the Fed's stance. Key drivers include rate expectations, upcoming economic data, and sector performance. Watch for sustained momentum or signs of caution.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Update : Big Rally Closing Out 2024Over the course of the past 6+ months, I've been sharing research and content to try to help traders all over the world learn to profit by making better decisions.
Some of the comments I've received have been very positive. But some of the comments I get are negative and some people have explained how they continue to lose money trading.
In my mind, if you are gambling with your trading account - you will likely lose money.
If you are actually trading (trying to book profits ASAP) and grow your account efficiently, you can make consistent money trading small amounts.
In order to try to illustrate this example of trading, I created a $1000 trading account and limited myself to only trading $333 (MAX) per day.
Here are the rules I set for myself...
-------------------------------------------------
Trading Plan
- Start with $1000 in capital
- Break that capital into 1/3 Daily limits
- Trade no more than 2-4 times a day
- Try to target 1-2 short term-trades and 1-2 intermediate-term trades each day
- Attempt to keep my losses limited (depending on market volatility)
- If I lose more than $300, I will stop trading and reevaluate what I’m doing right/wrong
The Daily Average Goal is 15-35% or more over a 30-day period of time.
I will try to execute the trades early in the morning and share the trades with Ment.com members.
I will attempt to pull the short-term trades off as early as possible (trying to lock in gains).
I will attempt to let the intermediate-term trades run a bit longer (possibly more than 1-2 days) in an effort to catch bigger price swings.
I will not attempt to chase market trends unless I see a very clear A-B-C type of price pattern.
-------------------------------------------------
After just five days of trading, my account is up over $45% and I've never risked more than $250 - $300 per day trading Options.
Anyone can do this - you just need the right tools and guidance.
You can DOUBLE your $1000 trading account every 20 to 30 days if you are diligent, consistent, and really learn to trade (not Gamble).
What is it going to take for you to learn how to trade efficiently?
I'm trying to show you HOW to do it and HOW to learn the skills to improve your life.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
SP500 - #SPX melt up targets for cup and handle pattern.BLUE SKIES
Would you have believed it
If you were told a year ago.
When every expert was predicting a recession.
(which will come of course but when no one is expecting it )
So the conditions are set for a melt up
I believe #Bitcoin bottoms very shortly maybe this week or next
(grab some bitcoin miners!)
ENJOY THE NEXT few months!
#CNBC will trumpeting SOFT LANDING
Investors will believe interest rates are falling because of low #Inflation
Which is when the next slowdown will hit.
This cycle has been crazy and hard to follow the main trend.
The stimulus was unprecedented
Remember this cycle started in 2009... 15 years ago
We are near the end!
But first SPX to smash 5000 and than potentially we hit that 6000 number