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S&P 500 (SPX500)

Wall Street Rallies on Trade Optimism: $SPX Performance Wall Street Rallies on Trade Optimism: S&P 500 Performance Update 📈 1/9 The S&P 500 Index ( SP:SPX ) closed higher today, fueled by optimism surrounding U.S.-China trade negotiations. Energy stocks led the charge, driven by rising oil prices and demand forecasts. 🔋📊 2/9 Energy Sector Surge: Energy stocks played a crucial role in today's SPX gains. Rising global demand and oil price increases are sparking investor confidence. 🚀 Is this trend sustainable? 3/9 Trade Optimism: President Trump's decision to delay tariffs on Canada and Mexico boosted sentiment. However, new U.S. tariffs on China and China's retaliatory measures remain key risks. ⚖️ Trade talks are still a tightrope walk. 4/9 Corporate movers today: PepsiCo and Estée Lauder fell after weak earnings forecasts. 📉 Palantir soared on a strong revenue outlook. 📈 Earnings season continues to shape sector performance! 5/9 Investors now await Alphabet's earnings, set to drop after market close. Tech giants like Alphabet can significantly impact SPX momentum in coming sessions. Will it be a bullish or bearish catalyst? 🕰️ 6/9 Economic Context: The SPX's performance today highlights a market adapting to trade uncertainties. Investors are shifting their focus from immediate trade impacts to longer-term prospects. 💡 7/9 Looking Forward: Alphabet's earnings could either reinforce today's rally or inject new volatility into the market. Tech earnings remain a major influence on overall market sentiment. 🧮 8/9 Today's SPX rally is a reminder of the market's sensitivity to macroeconomic factors—trade policy, sector rotation, and earnings expectations are all in play. Are you positioned for these shifts? 📊 9/9 What’s your market outlook for the SPX this week? Vote now! 🗳️ SPX will continue rising 📈 Expect some volatility 🔄 Bearish pullback ahead 📉
TVC:SPXLong
by DCAChampion
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For Feb 4, 2025: Rally PatternToday's rally pattern will attempt to provide some relief related to the recent breakdown in the SPY. Overnight, the ES/NQ rallied to FILL THE GAP. So, today, I believe the SPY will attempt to rally back above 600-601, then stall out and consolidate. Today may be a "GO GOLFING" day in the markets. I would not advise anyone to get Uber-Long in the markets right now. My research suggests the markets will roll downward near the end of this week - seeking the DEEP-V bottom/base I've predicted near 2-10~2-13. Gold and Silver should attempt another rally phase over the next 3 to 4 days. I expect metals to continue to rally into this expansion phase, and I'm initially targeting $3200 for gold. Bitcoin is trapped in a big Excess Phase Peak pattern that I believe will resolve into a breakdown price trend. The Deep-V and other breakdown patterns, which my cycle research says are pending, will drive Bitcoin downward, possibly targeting the $72k levels again. Today may be a relatively FLAT type of Rally day. So, play cautiously. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by BradMatheny
3
THE SKEWED GAMES. UNDERSTANDING CBOE SKEW INDEX (SKEW)The CBOE Skew Index (SKEW, or "BLACK SWAN" Index) is a financial metric developed by the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) to measure the perceived tail risk in the S&P 500 over a 30-day horizon. Tail risk refers to the probability of extreme market movements, such as significant declines or "black swan" events, which are rare but have severe consequences. Here's a detailed explanation of its role and implications in financial markets: Key Features of the CBOE:SKEW Index Measurement of Tail Risk. The SKEW Index quantifies the likelihood of returns that deviate two or more standard deviations from the mean. It focuses on outlier events, unlike the VIX (Volatility Index), which measures implied volatility around at-the-money (ATM) options. Implied Volatility Skew. The index is derived from the pricing of out-of-the-money (OTM) S&P 500 options. It reflects the market's demand for protection against downside risks, which leads to higher implied volatility for OTM puts compared to calls. Range and Interpretation The SKEW Index typically ranges from 100 to 150. A value near 100 suggests a normal distribution of returns with low perceived tail risk. Higher values (e.g., above 130) indicate increased concern about potential extreme negative events, with heightened demand for protective options. How It Works The SKEW Index is calculated using a portfolio of OTM options on the S&P 500. The methodology involves measuring the slope of implied volatility across different strike prices, capturing how much more expensive OTM puts are relative to calls. This steepness reflects market participants' expectations of asymmetric risks, particularly on the downside. To make a picture clear, we just simply use 125-Day SMA of SKEW Index. Since multi year high has occurred, market turbulence come as usual. Practical Implications Market Sentiment. A rising SKEW Index signals growing fear of extreme downside risks. For example, during periods of economic uncertainty or geopolitical tensions, investors may hedge portfolios more aggressively, driving up the index. Conversely, lower readings suggest calm market conditions with balanced expectations for future returns. Portfolio Management Investors use the SKEW Index as a barometer for hedging costs. High SKEW levels indicate that protecting against tail risks has become more expensive (and probably active). It also helps traders assess whether market pricing aligns with their own risk expectations. Historical Context Historically, spikes in the SKEW Index have preceded major market downturns or volatility events, such as the "Flash Crash" in 2010, Bear market in early 2000s (dot com collapse), WFC in 2007-09, market falls in late 2018 and in 2022. Complement to VIX While both indices measure risk, they address different aspects: VIX captures overall market volatility, while SKEW focuses on asymmetry and extreme event probabilities. Limitations In summary, the CBOE Skew Index provides valuable insights into market participants' perception of tail risks and their willingness to pay for protection against extreme events. It complements other volatility measures like the VIX and serves as a critical tool for risk management and market analysis.
SEducation
by PandorraResearch
SPX500 Will Move Higher! Buy! Here is our detailed technical review for SPX500. Time Frame: 1D Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is approaching a key horizontal level 5,976.37. Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 6,081.10. P.S Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
VANTAGE:SP500Long
by SignalProvider
1
Rate Cuts Coming Up?Simply put, yes , the Fed has appeared to switch its position on the FRED:FEDFUNDS remaining flat and are expecting further rate cuts. So what can we hypothesize the market's reaction will be? Well, you guessed it, the market will probably like the news and cash will flow into "risk-on" assets including crypto assets and, of course, stocks. Furthermore, we can infer that the market is not currently pricing in any rate cuts and we have yet to see a TRUE correction specifically in the TVC:DJI , TVC:NDQ , and the $SP:SPX. The image above shows an example of the 200 EMA significance and how it can be used to buy the dip at the right timing. PLEASE do not try to buy each top and bottom as it's virtually impossible to perfectly time the market. However, it should be suggested that you buy the day after the underlying bounces off the EMA. This is the most effective way to avoid a "fake out" in the trend. When this EMA it touched and rebounded, it could imply that a correction has taken place and that momentary downtrend is about to reverse to continue its previous bull trend. This could look as shown below. Just because it is shown on the chart doesn't make it so. Please keep in mind an equal and opposite possibility, where the EMA is broken through and a Bear market begins. Even though the odds for this are less than likely, the market simply not getting a rate cut could lead to this situation becoming a reality. In this market, nothing is impossible so be ready for everything. In conclusion, prepare for rate cut from not only the Fed, but ECB, and Bank of England as well. With this, we can expect rising markets as cash moves its way into risk assets. However, no one is a visionary, so if the markets don't get what they want (and we all know that it wants rate cuts more than anything), expect a lowering market and prepare to exit positions until a rebound appears reasonable.
SP:SPX
by addatheriver0808
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Feb 3, 2025 Afternoon UpdateWell, it seems everyone did quite well playing my prediction of a breakdown (again) in the markets today. Last week, I continued to warn the markets were very fragile and would likely break downward aggressively. Of course, the political drama (tariffs) helped to move the markets a bit this weekend. But, still, it was great to hear from everyone who made a healthy profit today. GET SOME. I also have been getting questions about the RALLY - RALLY - (counter-trend) RALLY setting up on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday this week. So, I created this video to help you understand why I believe those RALLY days will be rather muted on Wednesday/Thursday and maybe a type of topping pattern on Tuesday. I see the markets as breaking downward (breaking away from the dual Excess Phase Peak patterns), and because of that, I see the markets should attempt to move aggressively downward over the next 15+ days. I don't see any reason for the markets to mount a big rally right now - unless we are talking about a pullback in a downtrend. So, watch this video, pay attention to what I see, and then we'll see how things play out. Go GET SOME. This is a true trader's market. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
Two Daily Gaps attract market for pullbackAlthough S&P500 is within uptrend, recent days has left two clearly visible gaps behind. That means that it is highly possible that SPX will come back to cover those gaps in the near future, before it continue uptrend (if it will). Same picture at NDX chart with two 4H gaps. I take this idea to apply to all markets including crypto. While chances to resume higher timeframe uptrend are valid for Bitcoin, Stock Indices will most probably influence it's short term price action.
TVC:SPX
by WiseAnalyze
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 2-3-25 : Breakaway PatternOn a day like today, where the markets broke down with a huge GAP downward, what can I say except... Just like I predicted. For months I've been warning of the Jan 21-23 Inauguration peak/top that will lead to a Deep-V breakdown on Feb 9-12. And, like clockwork, the markets peaked just after January 23 and rolled downward into the breakdown phase - headed towards my Deep-V base/bottom setup near Feb 9-12. At this point, I'm just going to sit back and collect my profits. You should be doing the same thing today - BOOK those profits. Gold and Silver are moving into an upward CRUSH pattern. It could be very explosive. Bitcoin has broken downward again - just like I predicted. Over the next 30+ days, the markets will enter a very volatile and rotating price phase. Be prepared for wild price rotations. This is a true trader's market. Go get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
11
S&P500 : Big Tech Stocks Slide as Trump’s Tariffs Shake MarketsBig Tech Stocks Fall After Trump Imposes Sweeping Tariffs Shares of major Big Tech firms declined after U.S. President Donald Trump announced sweeping tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China. S&P 500 Technical Analysis The price dropped approximately 1.98% following Trump's tariff announcement. The price is expected to test 5,969, and if it manages to close a 4-hour or 1-hour candle above this level, it may push higher to test 5,996 and 6,020. However, if the price stabilizes below 5,969, it will likely continue its bearish trend toward 5,937. A break below this level would expose 5,893 and 5,863 as additional downside targets. Key Levels: Pivot Point: 5969 Resistance Levels: 5996, 6020, 6051 Support Levels: 5937, 5893, 5863 Trend Outlook: Bullish if the price breaks above 5,969 Bearish while trading below 5,969
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by SroshMayi
Black Monday is Coming – Time to Short This Beast!Alright, listen up, traders! The storm is brewing, the signs are clear, and if you haven't noticed yet—wake up! Black Monday is knocking, and the market is looking ripe for a proper dump. Now, I'm not saying sell your grandma’s jewelry and go all-in, but if you're looking for a juicy short entry, this might just be it. Ideally, you want to get in around that sweet spot in the yellow zone (check the chart) or even from the current levels if you're feeling extra spicy. Risk? What Risk? (Just Kidding, Manage It!) Stop-loss? Yeah, slap that bad boy above $6,150 on the 4-hour close. If price secures above that level, it's a no-go—cut it and move on. Take profits? Scale out as price nosedives. No need to be greedy; let the market pay you in chunks. The Big Picture This ain't financial advice—just a battle plan from someone who's seen enough bloodbaths in the markets to smell the fear. High risk? Absolutely. But hey, no risk, no champagne. Remember, risk management is king. Play it smart, lock in profits, and let the market do the heavy lifting-because when the dust settles, only disciplined traders will be left standing.
SP:SPXShort
by TottiVincenzo
Trade high probabilities using game theoryAccording to statistics, 95% of traders are losing longterm. Not because they lack skill, but because they involve in high variance (or poor probability) situations. What is game theory? we can define GT with three principles. *People dont want to lose. (hence.. predictable). *People buy good things at good price, or they are profit maximizing. *Everyone is strategic. ** we assume that "nobody can predict future". ** markets respond to feedbacks or signals. Practice: the higher something goes, potential narrows and risk increases. Deeper something falls, "potential" becomes attractive. Once market decides that it will fall -- people assume crash as possibility. People who can buy at a strong trend line - has benefit of having more information. (1) Downtrending VIX highs and accumulating lows. a strong signal about SPX peak, with everyone expecting a market correction before US election. ---> GT in practice. (2) pre-election. Markets be wobbly, pointing to 50-50 probability or risk. Maybe there was fear of NVDA/AAPL high valuations, or the fear due to Trump tariff policy (markets are 6m forward looking) as bond yields were rallying. If we assume statistically, markets boom after elections. We can predict GT in action (or call it market forces). imo that still is a profitable risk. People hate uncertainty and they love guarantees. So the "wobble" was reasonable. (3) VIX higher low.. predictably (GT) sell off follows. Almost as by the book. other way to put it? people maximize potential while minimize loses/risk. There are periods of volatile markets and periods for one directional rallies. P.S. Blue arrows are longterm macd turning points.
ICEUS:NYFANGEducation
by citsvar
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Jan 31, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook: During the current weekly trading session, the S&P 500 has successfully retested the significant threshold of the completed Outer Index Rally at 6123. The market is presently exhibiting a downtrend phase, as the bullish momentum appears to be temporarily suspended. Analyses indicate that this downward trajectory will likely persist, with targets set at the Mean Support levels of 5996 and potentially 5936. This considerable corrective pullback may create an opportunity for the re-establishment of a bullish trajectory toward further rally targets. Should this development occur, the market could be favorably positioned for the subsequent phase of the bullish trend, which would involve retesting the completed Outer Index Rally level of 6120 and targeting the following Outer Index Rally levels of 6233 and the highly anticipated target of 6418.
SP:SPX
by TradeSelecter
Plan Your Trade : Behind The Scenes - Learning PerspectiveI created this video to help answer a question from a follower. One of the biggest concerns for traders is how to use my research/info in a way that benefits them. My Plan Your Trade videos are based on Daily & Weekly price patterns/cycles. I won't delve into the Intraday research much because it is almost impossible to predict 2 to 10-minute price bars/action throughout the day when new hits and external price data may dramatically change how price moves throughout the day. I would have to continue making videos every 30 to 45 minutes to help you understand the dynamics of intraday price action. Either way, watch this video to learn a bit more about my research and why I'm trying to help traders learn to make better decisions. I'm really not here to tell you what to trade - or when to trade. I'm here to help you learn to make better trading decisions ON YOUR OWN. I try to help you learn to become a more knowledgeable and skilled trader by sharing some of my advanced research and demonstrating patterns, setups, price levels, and Cycle Patterns. The only thing I can do to help you become a better trader is to help you learn better skills and techniques. If you treat trading like gambling, you'll go broke (often). If you understand trading as a process of grabbing profits when efficient and limiting risks, you'll survive and grow your account over time. It's really that simple. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
8
ARK Innovation. Granny Wood is Back — What She's Brewing..?!Hooray! Granny Wood 👵 is roaring back! Well, here we are, The @PandorraResearch Team, to discuss what Ma'am Wood is brewing, since the epic things are almost there! In a nutshell, Cathie Wood is an American investor and founder, chief executive officer (CEO), and chief investment officer (CIO) of Ark Invest, an investment management firm. Her flagship ARK Innovation exchange-traded fund - AMEX:ARKK ETF has received accolades for its performance in 2017, 2020 and 2023, but is also considered by Morningstar to be the third highest "wealth destroyer" investment fund from 2014–2023, losing US$7.1 billion of shareholder value in ten years. Overview of the ARK Innovation ETF AMEX:ARKK The ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK), managed by ARK Investment Management and led by Cathie Wood, focuses on investing in companies that are at the forefront of "disruptive innovation." This term encompasses technologies that have the potential to significantly alter industries and consumer behaviors. The fund primarily targets sectors such as genomics, automation, AI, and energy, aiming for long-term capital appreciation. Current Performance Metrics As of January 31, 2025, ARKK is priced at approximately $64.50, reflecting a 1.53% increase on that day. Over January 2025 ARKK has demonstrated a bold return of about 13.60%, following a volatile period marked by significant fluctuations in value. Notably, that ARKK's performance over January 2025 shows a stark contrast with U.S. stock market benchmarks (just compare - S&P500 Index SP:SPX demonstrates nearly +4% return so far in 2025 while Nasdaq Composite Index NASDAQ:IXIC has added just around 3% in first month of 2025). ARKK Fundamental Analysis Investment Strategy. ARKK employs an actively managed approach, focusing on companies that are leaders or enablers of innovation. The fund's strategy combines both top-down and bottom-up research to identify high-potential stocks across various sectors. Sector Exposure. The ETF is heavily weighted towards technology and healthcare sectors, with significant investments in companies involved in AI and biotechnology. For instance, Tesla is often highlighted as a major holding due to its advancements in autonomous driving technology. Technical Outlook The technical outlook for ARKK shows signs of recovery and epic 200-week SMA Bullish breakthrough after a challenging period from late 2021 through much of 2023. The ETF has rebounded from lows around $36.85 in August 2024 to recent highs near $64.50 in January 2025, indicating a potential bullish trend if momentum continues. Support and Resistance Levels Support Level. Approximately $60.00 (recent low that corresponds to current 200-week SMA value) Resistance Level. Approximately $71.50 (3-years high) These levels will be critical for traders watching for potential supports or reversals. Market Sentiment Investor sentiment surrounding ARKK remains mixed due to its historical volatility and speculative nature. While some investors view it as an opportunity to capitalize on innovation-driven growth, others express caution due to its past performance dips and high-risk profile associated with its concentrated holdings. Conclusion The ARK Innovation ETF presents a compelling case for investors interested in disruptive technologies and long-term growth potential. However, its inherent volatility and the concentrated nature of its holdings necessitate careful consideration before investing. As the market continues to evolve with advancements in AI and other technologies, ARKK may offer significant upside momentum now, but also comes with considerable potential risk.
AMEX:ARKK
by PandorraResearch
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For Jan 31 : GAP PotentialAs we move into the end of January 2025, I'm still watching for technical failure near these higher levels. On Monday, we saw a huge breakdown in the markets just days after my Jan 21-23 Top prediction. Now, as we are moving into the Feb 9-11 DeepV base/bottom pattern - I've been expecting the markets to move into a downward trending phase - which has not happened yet. The way I see the markets right now and how I would offer a general interpretation of the trend is "struggling to find/set a new trend". In other words, the markets are really congested in a wide range. I believe the markets will attempt to move downward after today's opening GAP higher. I believe the markets are going to continue to struggle to find support and trade in a downward-sloping consolidated price range until Q3/Q4:2025. I believe the markets are reacting to earnings and continued support right now, but that will ultimately resolve as a breakdown phase over the next 60+ days - leading to the multiple BASE/BOTTOM patterns my cycle research suggests will happen. So, I continue to explain what I see in the context of the broader cycle phases. Gold and Silver may rally a bit today - but we have a CRUSH pattern on Monday - so try not to carry any positions over the weekend. BTCUSD is struggling to move away from very strong consolidation. It is also setting up multiple Excess Phase Peak patterns. I believe we need to be patient as BTCUSD struggles to find a new trend. Right now, I see more downside potential than upside potential. I would offer one warning about today. Today's opening GAP will likely prompt a breakdown in price (moving downward) as we head into next week. I believe next week will be very volatile. Buckle up. Get Some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
2