SPY/S&P500: in the mid-term resistance zonePrice has approached the upper border of the mid-term resistance zone: 598-612.
Until price closes bellow 612, I am preparing for the start of a correction to mid-term support: 564-540.
If price moves confidently above 612, than next resistance target is at 635 level.
The macro-structure of the uptrend from 2022 lows is well intact until price holds above 540 level and assumes higher targets for 2025 at 635-640-670 levels.
I wish everyone Merry Christmas and successful and profitable 2025!
Thank you for your attention.
S&P 500 (SPX500)
Validation of a long term top in the SPX continues to playballLast week I posted an update on my SPX cash index analysis...found below.
At the end of last week, we see where the price action has been filling in nicely as of Friday. Some key take-a-ways. First, is the price action has breached the area that I am counting as the wave 4 of one lesser degree. This would be an initial clue that the bull market pattern that started back in August of last year is cracking. This would be the area that I am counting as the intermediate wave (4). I am forecasting this recent price action down is the Minor A wave of the beginning of a stair stepped decline that has a high probability of coming back into that area of the August 2024 lows after we retrace higher in a minor B wave, labeled in Red.
What's important about price coming back into this area of approximately 5121-4950 is this the area that price could hold and manage a higher high, essentially meaning that my count is off by one degree...and what I am counting as a wave (III) super-cycle top will get pushed out to end of 2025-2026. However, to breach this area even incrementally, would provide much the same clues we're getting now, about price breaching the minor wave 4 of one lesser degree.
Below this must hold area, is where my forecast of a super-cycle wave (III) gets confirmation...until then we look for clues of validation...but confirmation does not come until price cane breach this area. To breach this area would reflect in price action that resembles the below.
Nifty Outlook: Bulls vs Bears - Key Levels to Watch Next Week
Nifty closed at 22,552, up by around 330 points from last week's close, hitting a high of 22,633 and a low of 21,964. As anticipated last week, the index found support at the 100-day WEMA around the 22,000 level, triggering a bounce. Looking ahead, next week is crucial, as the market is at a crossroads. While the monthly and weekly timeframes continue to show bearish signals, the bulls are actively trying to take control and push the market higher.
Here’s what to watch for:
Key Resistance: If Nifty manages to stay above 22,800 next week, we could see a short-covering rally, driving the index towards the 23,000 to 23,050 range. However, beyond these levels, the bulls may face significant challenges in taking the market further up.
Critical Support: On the downside, 22,000 remains a major support level. A break below this level could signal a fresh downtrend, possibly leading the market towards 19,500.
Next week is expected to be volatile, given the short trading week due to the holiday on Friday. This could lead to profit-taking from long traders, which might put downward pressure on the market. Keep a close eye on this week's low of 21,964. If it breaks, the market may open up to sharp declines.
Meanwhile, the S&P 500 has found support at the 50-day WEMA and closed at 5,770. On the weekly timeframe, it looks like the S&P 500 is forming a W pattern, with potential upside towards 5,850-5,890 next week before any pullback. If the S&P rallies as expected, it could provide a boost to Indian markets as well.
Next week is set to be decisive. Will the bulls overcome the bearish pressure, or will the market succumb to further selling? Stay alert, as the battle between bulls and bears continues.
SPX Is About to Explode – Here’s What I’m WatchingSPX is at a critical level, and whichever way it breaks, the move could be huge. Here’s my take:
If we drop below 5663, I see a move down to 5534 – 5445. If that zone fails, we could head toward 5332, and if selling pressure keeps up, 5234 might be next.
But if we break above 5800, the bulls could take over, pushing to 5972, and maybe even 6149.
It’s all about reaction levels now. I’m watching these zones closely—what’s your take? Are we heading up or breaking down?
Kris/ Mindbloome Exchange
Trader Smarter Live Better
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of March 7, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
In the recent weekly trading session, the S&P 500 successfully retested the Mean Resistance level of 5967; however, it subsequently experienced a significant decline. This decline brought the index back to the Mean Support level of 5860 and further down to the next major Key Support level of 5710. After this downturn, the index established a new critical support level at 5683. It is now positioned to target the Mean Resistance level of 5840. Should the index initiate an upward movement from its current position and successfully surpass this key resistance, it may continue to ascend toward the subsequent Mean Resistance level of 5955.
Conversely, suppose the index experiences a decline from the retested level of 5840. In that case, it will likely target the Mean Support level of 5683, with a further descent to an Outer Index Dip of 5576.
S&P500 The Week Ahead 10th March '25 Sentiment: Bearish INTRADAY Price action is consolidating in a tight trading range
Resistance: Key Resistance is at 5920, followed by 6003 and 6010.
Support: Key support is at 5664 followed by 5600 and 5554.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
S&P500 is OVERSOLD!CME_MINI:ES1! NASDAQ:NVDA NASDAQ:AAPL NASDAQ:AMZN NASDAQ:META NASDAQ:MSFT NASDAQ:GOOGL NASDAQ:COIN
BUY OPPORTUNITY on CME_MINI:ES1!
The chart shows a strong bullish setup. A well-defined wave structure is visible along with a key Fibonacci retracement level marking the pullback. A divergence in momentum has been noted, and the price action has bounced off the 52-week EMA, suggesting that buyers are stepping in.
Fundamentally, the outlook remains positive. Recent macroeconomic data points to solid consumer spending and steady industrial production, while bank earnings and statements from major financial institutions have added to market confidence. These positive signals help support the S&P 500’s broader resilience, reinforcing the potential for further gains.
That said, caution is advised. Uncertainties such as shifting monetary policy, potential geopolitical tensions, and any unforeseen changes in economic data could introduce volatility. Traders should consider tight risk management and stop-loss strategies to mitigate downside risks.
Not Financial Advice
Why the US strategic reserve is a bad thing for crypto.Another Controversial Opinion
Honestly, I’m frustrated with how this is unfolding. Crypto was never meant to be controlled by the USA—it was created as a humanitarian concept to empower individuals, offering a decentralized, anonymous, and universally accessible financial system.
But, as always, when there's money, resources, or anything valuable, the USA steps in to take control.
Take the music industry as an example—one of many sectors transformed (or destroyed) by the US.
Why Is the US Crypto Stockpile a Bad Thing?
Because it goes against Satoshi Nakamoto’s vision.
By aggressively accumulating and stockpiling Bitcoin, the US is making crypto less attractive to the rest of the world. People who assume every country will blindly follow the US are mistaken. What's beneficial for the US is not necessarily good for China, India, Pakistan, Indonesia, or any country competing against US financial dominance.
Unlike gold, which can be mined anywhere, the US stockpiling over 200,000 Bitcoin gives it a massive advantage. Other nations may reject crypto simply because they see it becoming a US-controlled asset.
The Political Weaponization of Crypto
Now, Trump is positioning himself as "The Crypto President"—which, while beneficial under his leadership, means that Democrats will inevitably become the anti-crypto party.
Turning crypto into a political weapon is dangerous in the long run. Is gold tied to a political party? No. So why should crypto be?
Conclusion
Crypto needed regulation, and that’s it.
The US obsession with controlling everything valuable often ends up destroying it.
Let’s not forget: crypto is nothing without its global communities—and where are most of these people? In countries that are actively resisting US financial dominance, primarily in the BRICS nations.
When Trump and his family rug-pulled $1 billion through Trump/Melania meme coins, that money didn’t just come from the US—it came mostly from foreign investors gambling on memes.
This is not what Satoshi Nakamoto envisioned when he released Bitcoin as open-source software for humanity.
The end result? The SPX500 dictates the market, Bitcoin follows, and altcoins mirror Bitcoin. Wall Street is now the puppet master of crypto.
If crypto follows the path of the music industry, billionaires will get richer, but ordinary people won’t. Altcoins will be wiped out, and Bitcoin will dominate everything.
SPX500 at Key Support Level: Rebound Towards 5,860?FOREXCOM:SPX500 has reached a significant support zone, highlighted by previous price reactions and strong buying interest. This area has acted as a key demand zone, increasing the likelihood of a bullish bounce if buyers step in.
The current market structure suggests that if the price confirms support within this zone, we could see a bullish reversal. A successful rebound could push the price toward 5,860. However, if the price breaks below this zone, the bullish outlook may be invalidated, opening the possibility for further downside.
Just my take on support and resistance zones—not financial advice. Always confirm your setups and trade with solid risk management.
Best of luck!
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 3-7-24 : Rally PatternAs many of you know, I've been expecting the SPY/QQQ to find support (seeking a base/bottom) for the past 3+ days. The amount of selling has been somewhat extreme. We are currently in a downtrend.
So, my expectation of a base/bottom is related to the breakdown of the Excess Phase Peak pattern and the previous support levels (pre-election and recent lows) that suggest price will attempt to hold/base/bottom near recent support.
As of yesterday's close, price had broken downward, still within the support range.
So, again, I urge caution as I believe price will be very volatile while attempting "hammer out a base/bottom" (if it happens).
Overall, my bias is to the downside because of the current trend. Yet, The RALLY pattern today suggests we may see a recovery above 577 on the SPY which may lead to a rally targeting 580+.
Gold and Silver are holding up well and should setup a base/bottom today on the Counter-Trend Top/Resistance Pattern. I don't expect Gold and Silver to rally very strong today. I expect more of a melt-up in trend for metals.
Bitcoin is still consolidating and moving into a very tight Flag Apex range. As I pointed out in today's video, a shorter-term Flag apex will be reached on Sunday (3-9). I believe Bitcoin will become very volatile over the next 3+ days - attempting to break away from a GETTEX:13K consolidation range.
This apex volatility could drive the SPY/QQQ into extreme volatility as well.
Unless you are very skilled at targeting short-term price swings - stay very cautious of this volatility as it could end up turning and biting back.
It's Friday. I'm planning on watching and only trading when I believe there is a very clear opportunity for profits.
I got dinged around (took some lumps yesterday) trying to trade while driving and handling family issues. Lesson learned - don't force it.
The markets will settle into a trend next week. So, be prepared to sit and watch if you don't like what you see on the charts today.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
NVIDIA Stock Goes Diving-Dressed ahead of Dotcom Crash RepeatingNvidia’s stock recently experienced a significant decline, tanked to 6-month low reflecting a mix of investor sentiment shifts, market dynamics, and company-specific concerns.
Here’s our @PandorraResearch Team ̶M̶u̶m̶b̶o̶ ̶j̶u̶m̶b̶o̶ fundamental and technical breakdown of what is going on with Nvidia stock NASDAQ:NVDA and why:
1. Cooling AI Enthusiasm
Nvidia has been at the forefront of the AI boom, with its chips powering advanced AI platforms. However, investor optimism about AI-related stocks has begun to wane. While Nvidia reported impressive revenue growth (122% in recent earnings), its future guidance failed to meet sky-high expectations. Investors are increasingly concerned that the returns from AI investments may take longer to materialize than initially anticipated. This cooling enthusiasm has led to a reassessment of Nvidia’s valuation, contributing to the stock's decline.
2. High Valuation Concerns
Nvidia’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio had soared to levels significantly higher than industry averages, reflecting lofty expectations for its future growth. At its peak, Nvidia was trading at 45 times expected earnings, compared to the S&P 500’s average of 22 times. Such high valuations often make stocks vulnerable to corrections when market sentiment changes or growth slows. The recent sell-off suggests that some investors are beginning to view Nvidia’s stock as overvalued.
3. DOJ Antitrust Investigation
Another factor weighing on Nvidia’s stock is news of a U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) subpoena investigating potential antitrust violations. The probe reportedly focuses on whether Nvidia’s business practices limit customer options or stifle competition. While no formal charges have been filed, such investigations create uncertainty and make investors jittery about regulatory risks.
4. Broader Market Pressures
The decline in Nvidia’s stock also coincides with broader market challenges. Rising interest rates and concerns about the U.S. economy have led many investors to shift away from high-growth tech stocks like Nvidia toward more stable, rate-sensitive investments. Additionally, a general downturn in the Nasdaq Composite index has amplified the pressure on Nvidia shares.
5. Profit-Taking After a Massive Rally
Before its recent drop, Nvidia had seen meteoric gains—its stock surged over 120% in one year and briefly became the world’s most valuable company. Such rapid growth often attracts profit-taking as traders sell off shares to lock in gains. Analysts described this as a "routine selloff" after an extraordinary rally.
Technical challenge
The main technical 3-month log scaled graph for Nvidia's stock indicates on unattainable highs never seen before since Dotcom crash, reached through a massive long term path inside upside channel.
Conclusion
Nvidia’s stock decline is driven by a combination of factors: tempered AI optimism, valuation concerns, regulatory uncertainty, broader economic pressures, and profit-taking after an exceptional run-up. While some analysts remain bullish on Nvidia due to its dominance in AI hardware, others see the pullback as a natural correction in response to overextended valuations and shifting market conditions.
--
Best schadenfreude wishes,
@PandorraResearch Team 😎
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade for 3-6-25: Breakaway PatternToday's Breakaway pattern suggests the SPY/QQQ will attempt to move away from yesterday's open/close price range.
Given the fairly strong downward pre-market trending in the SPY/QQQ, I'm cautiously optimistic we will see a fairly strong MELT-UP in price related to the recent support/rejection levels near 575.
I'm urging my followers to be cautious of the first 30-60 minutes of market activity today. Jobs data (or other data) could disrupt price after the open and I believe price will be very volatile in the first 30-60 minutes of trading today.
In other words, price may try to SHAKE-OUT early positions with wild volatility before settling into a MELT-UP or MELT-DOWN trend.
As I shared in my video, today's BreakAway pattern could break upward or downward. I believe the upward trend potential has about a 60-70% chance of happening IF the 575 level holds as support. If not, then we will probably break downward.
The fact that BTCUSD is holding up quite well suggests the SPY/QQQ may actually MELT-UPWARD. Again, we need to see how things play out in early trading today.
Gold & Silver are consolidating into a range which may continue over the next 3-4 days. The current bias for Gold and Silver is an uptrend. So, I do believe metals will continue to appreciate throughout this 3-4 day consolidation phase.
The only reason I urge traders to stay cautious for the first 30-60 minutes is because of the Jobs data and how the markets may react to news items. You can't kick the markets to go in a certain direction.
So, often, it is better to let the morning SHAKE-OUT happen, then wait for more clear trending to setup.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
S&P500 INTRADAY Bearish energy build up below 5920Bearish Scenario:
The intraday sentiment remains bearish, with the recent price action appearing as a corrective pullback. The key resistance level to watch is 5920—a rejection at this level could trigger renewed selling pressure. A move lower could target initial support at 5730, with further downside extending toward 5624 and potentially 5600 if bearish momentum persists.
Bullish Scenario:
Alternatively, a breakout above 5920 and a daily close higher would negate the bearish outlook and shift momentum in favor of the bulls. This could open the door for a rally toward 6000, followed by 6052 and ultimately 6160 if buying pressure continues.
Summary:
The S&P 500 is at a critical decision point, with 5920 acting as the key level. A rejection here favors further downside, while a breakout and sustained strength above it could signal a bullish reversal. Traders should closely monitor price action for confirmation of the next move.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
SPX500 - Bulls Need Strong Entry Bar - 6 Mar 2025
The report below uses the Spy chart which is the Normal Trading House.
• The market traded lower earlier to retest the March 4 low but formed a higher low. The market then reversed higher into the close, closing the daily candlestick as a bull inside bar closing in its upper half.
• The bulls see the market trading in a broad bull channel and want the move to continue for months. They want an endless pullback bull trend.
• They want a retest of the all-time high (Dec 6) followed by a breakout and trend resumption. They see the current move (Mar 4) as a bear leg within the trading range.
• They want a reversal from a double bottom bull flag (Jan 13 and Mar 4) and a wedge (Feb 25, Feb 28, and Mar 4).
• They hope the bottom of the 22-week trading range will act as support. They want a failed breakout below the January 13 low. So far, the breakout below the trading range low has limited follow-through selling.
• At the least, they want a retest of the middle of the trading range (around the 20-day EMA). They must create a strong entry bar today (March 6) to increase the odds of the bull leg beginning.
• If the market trades lower, they want the November 4 or October 3 low to act as support.
• The bears got a reversal from a higher high major trend reversal, a wedge top (Dec 6, Jan 24, and Feb 19), and a smaller double top (Jan 24 and Feb 19).
• They see the market as being in a 22-week trading range.
• They got a bear leg to retest the January 13 low and hope to get a breakout followed by a measured move based on the height of the 22-week trading range.
• So far, the breakout below the January 13 low has limited follow-through selling.
• If the market trades higher, they want the bear trend line or the 20-day EMA to act as resistance.
• They want at least a small second leg sideways to down to retest the March 4 low after a pullback (bounce).
• So far, the market is trading in a 22-week trading range.
• The SPX broke below the January 13 low (Mar 4) but the follow-through selling has been limited.
• The move down is strong enough for traders to expect at least a small second leg sideways to down after a pullback (bounce).
• For now, traders will see if the bulls can create a strong bull entry bar today.
• Or will the market trade slightly higher, but stall and close with a long tail or a bear body instead?
• The bulls need to create consecutive bull bars closing near their highs to show that they are back in control.
• The bears must create a strong breakout below the January 13 low with follow-through selling to convince traders a breakout could be underway.
• Traders may BLSH (Buy Low, Sell High) within the trading range until there is a breakout from either direction with follow-through buying/selling.
Recession IncomingVery clear confirmation signals here across many sectors in the market that we are in a recession. Fundamentals were breaking down last summer in fact, but now everything is rising to the surface and markets are turning. Buckle up.
Oil is breaking down today.
Bond yields continue to signal de-risking.
USD continues to break down.
USD/JPY is heading lower back toward July panic levels.
VIX is sustaining above 20.
I'm not 100% clear on the structure of this count, so please feel free to share your charts and insight here, but I don't think we are looking at a buy the dip and shoot back to new highs situation anytime soon here.. Unless Trump's entire policy stance changes, he drops Tariffs, and starts increasing the deficit and handing out money, the tightening and de-risking will continue. That said, I believe this is a great thing long-term and is what needs to happen, so I am all for a recession at this point. But this medicine is going to tasty very bad.
All of those white boxes below the price chart are unfilled gaps. I'm not entirely sure if there is an amount of time that passes that makes unfilled gaps less reliable, but still they are there.
SPX 1D 200 EMA Retest? As the 9&21W EMAs cross and a new local low printing after a SFP top, could the S&P500 be getting its first major correction since Jan 2022?
From a TA standpoint this kind of setup looks to be high probability with good R:R for the bears. Targeting the 1W 200 EMA is the most logical area as it remains major support and whenever tested holds strong.
From a bulls standpoint this is worrying but could be rectified with a reclaim of the 9&21 EMAs preventing a "death cross" from there acceptance above the high would be the next step to maintain the rally.
Fundamentals play a major role and the geopolitical world shows no signs of slowing down, perhaps the tariffs angle is introducing uncertainty in American companies? Or the index is just exhausted from 2.5 years of climbing? Either way the chart is an interesting one to monitor for now.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 3-5-25: Flat-Down PatternToday's pattern suggests the SPY will move into a sideways type of stalling pattern. Based on yesterday's rejection off the lows, I suspect we may see some continued upward reversion trending, then we'll likely see the SPY move into a stalling pattern near 579.
Ultimately, the Flat-Down pattern does not suggest big trending will take place today.
Yesterday's price rejection off the lows adds a bit to the overall picture that the SPY may attempt to move away from that lower support level - thus, we may see some upward "melt-up" type of trend today.
But, overall, I'm not confident we'll see any big price trends today. I expect the SPY to stay somewhat flat/muted today. Same thing with the QQQ.
If we do see any big price move today, it will likely be news-related.
Gold and Silver are both sitting near 618 pause levels and continuing to try to push higher. I believe both gold and silver will make an expansion move over the next 5 to 7+ trading days and begin a very solid rally phase. Where gold will attempt to break above $3000 and Silver will attempt to rally above $35.
Bitcoin is still struggling in the Consolidation phase. This wide-range consolidation should continue until sometime near March 19-24.
Don't expect Bitcoin to do much except consolidate into the flagging sideways price trend for the next week or two.
Go get some today.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
SPX S&P 500 Gearing Up For A 10x Over Next 10 yearsSPX looks extremely bullish and the patterns are obvious to me. This parabola will continue into the 2030's and be even more vertical than we've seen in any prior runs. This next decade is going to be wonderful. There may be some corrections along the way but in the bigger picture we are going to go absolutely vertical. Hold onto your hats.
None of this is financial advice just my opinion.
Another 682 point crash for S&P500 to 5,130?It's been a brutal year so far with the Trump Presidency.
And it's been a rough year for the S&P 500, dropping from 6,149 to 5,811.
The main culprit?
Political instability in the U.S.
The current administration’s unpredictable decisions, sudden tariff hikes, and policy shifts have left investors uneasy and consumers lacking confidence.
Here are six executive orders that have dragged the market down:
Tariff Hikes on China, Mexico, Canada and Europe –
Higher import costs hurt U.S. businesses, especially in tech and retail, slashing profits. Remember imposing tariffs are one thing but there will be retaliatory action.
Environmental Rollbacks –
ESG investors pulled back, hitting energy and industrial stocks.
Work Visa Cuts – Tech and healthcare struggled to hire, slowing innovation.
Healthcare Subsidy Cuts – Uncertainty in insurance and pharma led to stock drops.
Also with the cutting of USAID and with turbulence with WHO this isn't helping the situation
Trade Agreement Pullouts – Supply chain chaos hurt multinational corporations.
ALso with the cutting ties with Ukraine and now with the UK prohibiting funding to the Ukraine (latest on)
With shaky policies and no clear direction, market confidence is shot. Until stability returns, expect more turbulence.
With the price action, it is possible to see this M Formation play out for the SP500.
And it is looking bad, really bad - not great - In Trump's voice.
M Formation
Price<20MA
Needs to break <200MA
Then the next target will be around 5,130...
Let's actually hope I am wrong this time and something miraculously happens to pump up the market again.
We can take advantage and short stocks, indices etc... But there is a moral issue involved with wanting the market to crash. Remember that.
SPX chart update after calling moves to the $ for 3 yearsHere is the 1st chart I did of SPX back in Jan 2022:
I called the drop to the yellow line on chart. Nailed it to nearly the exact $.
Then in October 2023 I mentioned this:
The rally was confirmed for the next 6 months minimum.
Then in Jan 2024 I posted a red horizontal line as target for the rally:
Now you can see on current bottom chart that price hit the red line target.
This chart setup you see on bottom chart also shows relevance to the 1st chart I did on SPX where when the blue EMA8 went below the orange MA21, a drop happened as per the red X marks and price changes shown on chart. This is close to happening currently which is easier to see on the top chart as I give a close up view on current price action and the EMA/MA's.
Are we about to see a drop as per yellow price change on chart or can SPX bounce from here and move up to the green horizontal line on chart? The EMA/MA crossunder will tell us.
Even though I called the moves all correct previously, at this time in the markets, things are alot trickier so I cannot say with conviction this time around as to which way it will go.
I will update the analysis once the bounce or cross under is confirmed.