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Spx500analysis

SPX nothing has changed for meLonger term its in bear market. Short term mid range, hard to make a good reading for either up or down move. My best guess we will see 4k and go down to 3875 if not 3750. One thing to note/repeat is EOM will be very strong in selling, at least thats how I see it, and the bottom wont come till the 1st of Dec. My pathway is lower into 22-24th, up into the Cyber Monday and very strong down move into Dec 1st low. I dont see any Santa Rally. Too many still hoping for one and I have a feeling its not coming, but will be lower into at least mid of Dec low! Then a rally into mid Jan high and continuing much lower (strongest move with VIX capitulation) into Mar low, After that Im going to trade mostly in upside into May and then Aug high. Level for tomorrow to watch is the same it was for the whole last week - 4010.50SPX Rejecting it one more time will be a perfect short or exit for a move to 3750SPX Ideally we have one more spike to 4007SPX or so and hard rejection. Have a profitable week everyone and dont get trapped after Wed Fed shenanigans (ideally a fake rally and sell from there into 24th low)
SP:SPX
by RealTima
12
SPX Fake Rally?As we continue to monitor the broader index market we see many discrepancies between the S&P, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones. All 3 are not displaying the same level of strength, but what they do all have in common is signs of weakness with this last rally. Although I'm open to the idea that the markets have bottomed, I still think its more that we still have 1 more leg down at this moment. I continue to see signs of weakness with this last rally, divergence, over-bought indicators, and topping patterns are all showing right now. That doesn't mean the market has to make new lows, but at the very least I would expect a higher low to develop. I would be extremely cautious over the next few weeks/months until we see the market start showing signs of strength again. I believe the current investor sentiment is persistent optimism, which is not good for the markets. We don't know if we'll see a higher low, or a new low, but I would be prepared for the worst-case scenario, which would be the markets pushing down to the $3200 support level. We have a lot of historical support in that area, including the weekly 400EMA and the bottom of our down-trend channel where I think it's likely we see a bottom. Remember, be patient, level-headed, and don't follow the crowd.
SP:SPXShort
by CryptoSyphn
ES chart, nothing changed from last nightI wont be surprised to see 3900 test and then one more up from the bull flag. If 3900 holds we should see 4100+ move on the last leg up. The amount of puts is insane, unless I/we dont know something, its a retail/perma-bears trying to short every top and you know what happens to those puts when P/C ratio is so up. I also start to see some really out of the money SPY put prints, like down to 300-335, which I havent seen last 2 weeks Today is a turning day as well as tomorrow and the day after, so a lot of choppiness is expected and trading levels will be rewarded imo There could be a start of the real move down only after 22-23rd going into EOM where Nov 30th is a panic cycle day. I will be looking to buy next low and currently short ES from 3960.50 with a 9 points stop. Will exit half at 10+ points gain and will move the rest at BE
CME_MINI:ES1!
by RealTima
11
ES above 4001 it explodes, below 3960 goes down to 3900-10I have marked resistance to take and support to break. Did a quick long from 3972.5 long and already out at 3983.50. I will jump on a wagon if it break either side, so far no mans land, need to see the real move here. My thinking is that we get a fakeout in am and sell off into 3900. But I will be looking at the resistance test (if it breaks) and will do a long with a stop. There is a clear bull flag and as well as roofing pattern on the charts, so really need to see a move in a right direction to enter into a trade, waiting at this point There is a turning day tomorrow and the day after. I wont rule out a cycle inversion and a high on the 21-22nd instead of a low. The maj resistance/support levels were provided. Closing above 4010.50SPX will be bullish going into the next cycle of importance. There is a huge option flow to expire on Fri, so a fakeout and dump from there is very possible A close around 385 will be ideal to kill all the premium out there. There is also a big 390 put wall for this Fri exp. Main support for the SPX is at 3750. Daily supports are at 3950-52SPX and then down at 3907-13SPX Have a good night
CME_MINI:ES1!
by RealTima
4
S&P 500 index: Bear market rally to top out at 4,050?The S&P 500 ( US 500 ) has experienced a remarkable 15% rally since its lows on October 13. This was the second bear market rally in 2022, after the US stock market officially entered a bear market in May. If we are currently undergoing a two-month bear market rally similar to the one saw last summer, the S&P 500 index is expected to peak at about 4,050 points on December 13. On that day, the US will release its November CPI inflation figures, and the Federal Reserve will meet just one day later. Technically, the index is trading near the 4,000-point psychological barrier, which also corresponds to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level from the lows to the highs of 2022. The 200-day moving average is located just above this level at 4,076 points right now and may shortly follow the path of the 2022 bearish trendline. This multi-resistance zone between the critical 4,000 and 4,050/60 marks could be a significant technical hurdle for the S&P 500, where bulls may struggle to move further. Two possible outcomes could follow, depending on whether the S&P 500 breaks through this significant resistance area or not. 1) Head-and-shoulders pattern with SPX heading towards 3,500 If the bear market rally peaks at 4,050 in December, the price action will have formed the right shoulder of a head-and-shoulders pattern, which depicts the S&P 500 index falling below the neckline at 3,500 points by the end of 2022 or the start of the next year. 2) Breakout and extension towards August highs Alternatively, a breakout of the multi-resistance zone around 4,050 may occur if US inflation continues to decline and the Federal Reserve adopts a less hawkish approach in December. In that case, the index might extend its gains toward 4,156, which represents 50% of the Fibonacci retracement, and possibly test the August highs at 4,323, which would complete 61.8% of the retracement.
SP:SPX
by Capitalcom
Reposting my weekend update for those who didnt see itMy weekend update was banned as noted other place, Im re-posting now: I have cycles top on Tuesday and choppy period into 22nd low The way I see here is that the price is about to finish the wave 2 and 3rd wave will bring the price down into third week of Dec. Dont see and Santa Rally this year, it should be a Santa Crappy. Nov month should be lowest monthly close when Dec will be higher and Jan 2023 will be another lower monthly close. Intra day low might not come till Apr or even May. I have volatility rising from tomorrow all the way into EOM . I do expect a good down move tomorrow, which will be bought. Main support now is at 3910-15SPX and smaller degree support at 3950-58SPX Resistance and target on the upside are on the chart with notes. Maj resistance on closing daily level is at 4010.50 SPX and weekly at 4116-18. Ideal target for the high this month is 4118SPX level, might very well top in mid 4000 The way the price is going is not bullish but a bear rally, those can extend and be super fast (we got second part already) Main support is at 3750-55SPX now, below it top is in. My game plan for tomorrow is buy low 39 handle for a move up into Tuesday high. I have exited my MES short from Friday close at Sunday open and flipped to long from 83.50 and 84.50. Already took profits at 91.50 and 93.50 zone. Im long some MNQ and my main position is swing short MNQ. I will trim most of my long on Tuesday high.
SP:SPX
by RealTima
16
S&P500 Analysis 13.11.2022Welcome to the BasicTrading channel. My name is Philip and in todays analysis I quickly go over the situation which we currently have on the S&P500. I will analyse the asset both from a weekly and daily timeframe to show you the best possible trading opportunities. If you enjoyed this analysis, let me know in the comment section which asset I should analyse tomorrow. I will personally reply to every single comment. Dont forget to smash that rocket and I will see you tomorrow with a new analysis.
FX:SPX500
by basictradingtv
7
SPX bounced off resistance, all eyes on 3907SPXSPX must close above 3907 today to confirm the breakout! Bounced off resistance on this move, super extended and overbought now. Resistance is at 3933SPX, broken trend channel test from the bottom I have trimmed my longs (from yesterday's 3755-60ES entry) before the CPI, oh well, cant win them all. SPX is still in its opening channel Tomorrow is a directional change day, will confirm the breakout if the price stays up above 3907 and can get above 3933SPX Volatility is rising into Nov 23rd, I still expect lower into that day, only after a good rally up into EOM For now day trading for me with a core short position
SP:SPX
by RealTima
21
SPX can possibly limit down tomorrowWant to make a special disclaimer here: Do not bet your house on this if you're trading futures (ETF option market is closed) as I might be completely wrong! I want to present you a possibility of another mini crash tomorrow (Oct 13th like) maybe even limit down! If CPI comes hot tomorrow am that could produce another huge sell off like we saw on Oct 13th. CPI poll, make your bets here, share with others: strawpoll.com There are several big issues out there which can contribute to a potential move down: - Treasury reduction, - Crypto crash (leading imo), - Hot CPI, - 10 year action, - Midterms uncertainty (10000% rigged again) - Liquidity is a bigger problem then ever this year (there wont be a bid till it's limit down imo) - Lunar eclipse - Also SAR produced 3 days dots above the price, means the trend is lower and we have a perfect 1-2 setup to the downside Now lets talk about the price and levels: All we need is an open below 3689-3700 and continue sell from the open Supports are at: - 3689 SPX - 3610-45 SPX (support box) where 3610SPX is the maj support, loosing it we get down to: - 3543-52 SPX - 3509 is where the limit down target is - Below 3500 it will not stop till 3415SPX!!! So if this happens you are ready and prepared to trade it. Opening below 3689-3700 will act as a maj resistance for tomorrow and all stops must be there. I will add to my short either before the CPI or right after. Trail short from the open and seat back and relax, as if it goes, there wont be any good bounce due to lack of liquidity. Ideally we see a ramp up into the numbers, but with the election results it could be muted and we wont get a desired rally. Ideal resistance for tonight is at 3780-85ES, I will be closing my longs from 3756 there and flip short with a wide stop. So again, this is a potential I see for tomorrow, if Im wrong and CPI comes lower then expected we could see a decent rally up to 3900 if not 4k (not in one day of course)
SP:SPXShort
by RealTima
22
SPX long termHe is a bit cleared out chart for my long term view on the SPX. I think (as was saying all year long), that we will revisit 2020 lows and ideally make a higher low at 2855SPX or if super weak low 2400 (less odds at this point) by Mar/Apr 2023. If there is a H&S playing out and we will know soon enough, then the price should get down to 3k zone My ideal target for this year low is at 3212SPX with min 3389SPX (which I think will be sliced/wont hold long if tested) Maj support going into Nov 10-11th low is at 3610 to 3656 SPX, where 3610SPX is the maj support. Below 3610SPX the price will test min 3543-56SPX is not all the way to re-test Oct 13th lows. If in fact that happens, then the move down to 3389 and ideally 3212SPX will be very fast and will bottom on Nov 21-22nd. Ideally we test 3389SPX level on Nov 21-22nd, rally up back to 3545-55SPX and ideally back to 3610-55SPX by EOM and make a final low in Dec either at 3212 or that mid 3k zone. I do think 3k will be a very solid support and will hold this year. This year is a pure bear market and so many still expecting a Santa Rally, I think we get Santa Crappy instead. So after a good size rally (13-18%) from Dec lows to mid Jan high Early next year it will be a perfect scenario where the price dives down to 2855 and low 24 handle to mark the bottom of the whole move down from Jan highs. Then I think the price will start to move up with the money flow from the European countries and other countries to a safe heaven - the US stock market. DOW will benefit the most imo, so I expect DOW to outperform, SPX to follow. That high might be a double top sometime in 2026 and then another move down to 1550SPX zone by 2030-32 So if played right and give enough time to your trade, a lot of money can be made playing long term/swing this pathway Have a good night, tomorrow will be interesting, expect a lot of volatility to hit the market going all the way till Christmas time
SP:SPX
by RealTima
5
SPX can be in a much bigger H&S patternIf this H&S plays out/triggers we will see the price in 3k zone For now there is a support box for the move lower. Expect unexpected, as the price was tested so many times on the downside, it can break next time it does test it. Also if this is a start of the wave 3 down, it will be fast and with min retracements, so be careful when trying catching the knife Sar dots on daily are printing from the top 3rd day in a raw, 4h just joined the party VIX and UVXY got very green already Im swing short and my timing for the low is 21-22nd of Nov Should move down into 10-11th low, then up into the 15-16th and final push to 21-22nd low
SP:SPX
by RealTima
2
SPX Weekly Volatility Forecast 7-11 November 2022 We can see thSPX Weekly Volatility Forecast 7-11 November 2022 We can see that this week our volatility is at 3.41% which declined from 3.56% last week. Currently according to ATR we are on 80th percentile, and according to VIX we are on 65th percentile, indicating in both cases, that we are currently is a volatile market. Now, based on the implied volatility data that we have for this week, lets look into further details. We can see that currently there is 24.3% chance, that our candle is going to close at the end of the week either above/below the next channel TOP: 3890 BOT: 3616 This can also be translated as a 75.7% chance that the market is going to move within this established range. At the same, looking at the previous high/low values of the candle, and taking into account the entire history available of data, we can expect that there is going to be a 38% chance that we are going to touch the previous high of 3930 66% chance that we are going to touch the previous low of 3700
SP:SPX
by exlux
SPX next week pathwayIm looking for an ABC move up tomorrow for a new high 3815-35SPX (if we wont take Fri lows) Ideally we bottom in ES deeper then the cash price and cash will get its 50% retracement hit in am tomorrow, then we go up to close the Sunday opening gap Then we should fall hard into 34 handle territory. My timing is a low in Nov for the year and Jan high, then Mar/Apr maj low of this move. Note this: Fed is removing $40B by Nov 15, then aprox $20B/week through the EOY So dont expect Santa being nice to the bullz...
SP:SPX
by RealTima
6