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Spx500analysis

ES above 4001 it explodes, below 3960 goes down to 3900-10I have marked resistance to take and support to break. Did a quick long from 3972.5 long and already out at 3983.50. I will jump on a wagon if it break either side, so far no mans land, need to see the real move here. My thinking is that we get a fakeout in am and sell off into 3900. But I will be looking at the resistance test (if it breaks) and will do a long with a stop. There is a clear bull flag and as well as roofing pattern on the charts, so really need to see a move in a right direction to enter into a trade, waiting at this point There is a turning day tomorrow and the day after. I wont rule out a cycle inversion and a high on the 21-22nd instead of a low. The maj resistance/support levels were provided. Closing above 4010.50SPX will be bullish going into the next cycle of importance. There is a huge option flow to expire on Fri, so a fakeout and dump from there is very possible A close around 385 will be ideal to kill all the premium out there. There is also a big 390 put wall for this Fri exp. Main support for the SPX is at 3750. Daily supports are at 3950-52SPX and then down at 3907-13SPX Have a good night
CME_MINI:ES1!
by RealTima
4
S&P 500 index: Bear market rally to top out at 4,050?The S&P 500 ( US 500 ) has experienced a remarkable 15% rally since its lows on October 13. This was the second bear market rally in 2022, after the US stock market officially entered a bear market in May. If we are currently undergoing a two-month bear market rally similar to the one saw last summer, the S&P 500 index is expected to peak at about 4,050 points on December 13. On that day, the US will release its November CPI inflation figures, and the Federal Reserve will meet just one day later. Technically, the index is trading near the 4,000-point psychological barrier, which also corresponds to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level from the lows to the highs of 2022. The 200-day moving average is located just above this level at 4,076 points right now and may shortly follow the path of the 2022 bearish trendline. This multi-resistance zone between the critical 4,000 and 4,050/60 marks could be a significant technical hurdle for the S&P 500, where bulls may struggle to move further. Two possible outcomes could follow, depending on whether the S&P 500 breaks through this significant resistance area or not. 1) Head-and-shoulders pattern with SPX heading towards 3,500 If the bear market rally peaks at 4,050 in December, the price action will have formed the right shoulder of a head-and-shoulders pattern, which depicts the S&P 500 index falling below the neckline at 3,500 points by the end of 2022 or the start of the next year. 2) Breakout and extension towards August highs Alternatively, a breakout of the multi-resistance zone around 4,050 may occur if US inflation continues to decline and the Federal Reserve adopts a less hawkish approach in December. In that case, the index might extend its gains toward 4,156, which represents 50% of the Fibonacci retracement, and possibly test the August highs at 4,323, which would complete 61.8% of the retracement.
SP:SPX
by Capitalcom
Reposting my weekend update for those who didnt see itMy weekend update was banned as noted other place, Im re-posting now: I have cycles top on Tuesday and choppy period into 22nd low The way I see here is that the price is about to finish the wave 2 and 3rd wave will bring the price down into third week of Dec. Dont see and Santa Rally this year, it should be a Santa Crappy. Nov month should be lowest monthly close when Dec will be higher and Jan 2023 will be another lower monthly close. Intra day low might not come till Apr or even May. I have volatility rising from tomorrow all the way into EOM . I do expect a good down move tomorrow, which will be bought. Main support now is at 3910-15SPX and smaller degree support at 3950-58SPX Resistance and target on the upside are on the chart with notes. Maj resistance on closing daily level is at 4010.50 SPX and weekly at 4116-18. Ideal target for the high this month is 4118SPX level, might very well top in mid 4000 The way the price is going is not bullish but a bear rally, those can extend and be super fast (we got second part already) Main support is at 3750-55SPX now, below it top is in. My game plan for tomorrow is buy low 39 handle for a move up into Tuesday high. I have exited my MES short from Friday close at Sunday open and flipped to long from 83.50 and 84.50. Already took profits at 91.50 and 93.50 zone. Im long some MNQ and my main position is swing short MNQ. I will trim most of my long on Tuesday high.
SP:SPX
by RealTima
16
S&P500 Analysis 13.11.2022Welcome to the BasicTrading channel. My name is Philip and in todays analysis I quickly go over the situation which we currently have on the S&P500. I will analyse the asset both from a weekly and daily timeframe to show you the best possible trading opportunities. If you enjoyed this analysis, let me know in the comment section which asset I should analyse tomorrow. I will personally reply to every single comment. Dont forget to smash that rocket and I will see you tomorrow with a new analysis.
FX:SPX500
by basictradingtv
7
SPX bounced off resistance, all eyes on 3907SPXSPX must close above 3907 today to confirm the breakout! Bounced off resistance on this move, super extended and overbought now. Resistance is at 3933SPX, broken trend channel test from the bottom I have trimmed my longs (from yesterday's 3755-60ES entry) before the CPI, oh well, cant win them all. SPX is still in its opening channel Tomorrow is a directional change day, will confirm the breakout if the price stays up above 3907 and can get above 3933SPX Volatility is rising into Nov 23rd, I still expect lower into that day, only after a good rally up into EOM For now day trading for me with a core short position
SP:SPX
by RealTima
21
SPX can possibly limit down tomorrowWant to make a special disclaimer here: Do not bet your house on this if you're trading futures (ETF option market is closed) as I might be completely wrong! I want to present you a possibility of another mini crash tomorrow (Oct 13th like) maybe even limit down! If CPI comes hot tomorrow am that could produce another huge sell off like we saw on Oct 13th. CPI poll, make your bets here, share with others: strawpoll.com There are several big issues out there which can contribute to a potential move down: - Treasury reduction, - Crypto crash (leading imo), - Hot CPI, - 10 year action, - Midterms uncertainty (10000% rigged again) - Liquidity is a bigger problem then ever this year (there wont be a bid till it's limit down imo) - Lunar eclipse - Also SAR produced 3 days dots above the price, means the trend is lower and we have a perfect 1-2 setup to the downside Now lets talk about the price and levels: All we need is an open below 3689-3700 and continue sell from the open Supports are at: - 3689 SPX - 3610-45 SPX (support box) where 3610SPX is the maj support, loosing it we get down to: - 3543-52 SPX - 3509 is where the limit down target is - Below 3500 it will not stop till 3415SPX!!! So if this happens you are ready and prepared to trade it. Opening below 3689-3700 will act as a maj resistance for tomorrow and all stops must be there. I will add to my short either before the CPI or right after. Trail short from the open and seat back and relax, as if it goes, there wont be any good bounce due to lack of liquidity. Ideally we see a ramp up into the numbers, but with the election results it could be muted and we wont get a desired rally. Ideal resistance for tonight is at 3780-85ES, I will be closing my longs from 3756 there and flip short with a wide stop. So again, this is a potential I see for tomorrow, if Im wrong and CPI comes lower then expected we could see a decent rally up to 3900 if not 4k (not in one day of course)
SP:SPXShort
by RealTima
22
SPX long termHe is a bit cleared out chart for my long term view on the SPX. I think (as was saying all year long), that we will revisit 2020 lows and ideally make a higher low at 2855SPX or if super weak low 2400 (less odds at this point) by Mar/Apr 2023. If there is a H&S playing out and we will know soon enough, then the price should get down to 3k zone My ideal target for this year low is at 3212SPX with min 3389SPX (which I think will be sliced/wont hold long if tested) Maj support going into Nov 10-11th low is at 3610 to 3656 SPX, where 3610SPX is the maj support. Below 3610SPX the price will test min 3543-56SPX is not all the way to re-test Oct 13th lows. If in fact that happens, then the move down to 3389 and ideally 3212SPX will be very fast and will bottom on Nov 21-22nd. Ideally we test 3389SPX level on Nov 21-22nd, rally up back to 3545-55SPX and ideally back to 3610-55SPX by EOM and make a final low in Dec either at 3212 or that mid 3k zone. I do think 3k will be a very solid support and will hold this year. This year is a pure bear market and so many still expecting a Santa Rally, I think we get Santa Crappy instead. So after a good size rally (13-18%) from Dec lows to mid Jan high Early next year it will be a perfect scenario where the price dives down to 2855 and low 24 handle to mark the bottom of the whole move down from Jan highs. Then I think the price will start to move up with the money flow from the European countries and other countries to a safe heaven - the US stock market. DOW will benefit the most imo, so I expect DOW to outperform, SPX to follow. That high might be a double top sometime in 2026 and then another move down to 1550SPX zone by 2030-32 So if played right and give enough time to your trade, a lot of money can be made playing long term/swing this pathway Have a good night, tomorrow will be interesting, expect a lot of volatility to hit the market going all the way till Christmas time
SP:SPX
by RealTima
5
SPX can be in a much bigger H&S patternIf this H&S plays out/triggers we will see the price in 3k zone For now there is a support box for the move lower. Expect unexpected, as the price was tested so many times on the downside, it can break next time it does test it. Also if this is a start of the wave 3 down, it will be fast and with min retracements, so be careful when trying catching the knife Sar dots on daily are printing from the top 3rd day in a raw, 4h just joined the party VIX and UVXY got very green already Im swing short and my timing for the low is 21-22nd of Nov Should move down into 10-11th low, then up into the 15-16th and final push to 21-22nd low
SP:SPX
by RealTima
2
SPX Weekly Volatility Forecast 7-11 November 2022 We can see thSPX Weekly Volatility Forecast 7-11 November 2022 We can see that this week our volatility is at 3.41% which declined from 3.56% last week. Currently according to ATR we are on 80th percentile, and according to VIX we are on 65th percentile, indicating in both cases, that we are currently is a volatile market. Now, based on the implied volatility data that we have for this week, lets look into further details. We can see that currently there is 24.3% chance, that our candle is going to close at the end of the week either above/below the next channel TOP: 3890 BOT: 3616 This can also be translated as a 75.7% chance that the market is going to move within this established range. At the same, looking at the previous high/low values of the candle, and taking into account the entire history available of data, we can expect that there is going to be a 38% chance that we are going to touch the previous high of 3930 66% chance that we are going to touch the previous low of 3700
SP:SPX
by exlux
SPX next week pathwayIm looking for an ABC move up tomorrow for a new high 3815-35SPX (if we wont take Fri lows) Ideally we bottom in ES deeper then the cash price and cash will get its 50% retracement hit in am tomorrow, then we go up to close the Sunday opening gap Then we should fall hard into 34 handle territory. My timing is a low in Nov for the year and Jan high, then Mar/Apr maj low of this move. Note this: Fed is removing $40B by Nov 15, then aprox $20B/week through the EOY So dont expect Santa being nice to the bullz...
SP:SPX
by RealTima
6
SPX updated Fri chartFibs are on the chart, so far stopped at 50% retracement, I would expect 61.8 to get hit today, right into the resistance trendline (black line) Yesterday's box was resistance, now its a support, use that if you want to go long (if we get a pullback today) I was expecting this rally, but missed am entry, had one NQ running on the long side from yesterday and that was closed at the open spike. I have also added back to my swing short MNQ (was closed those at 645 and 685 mentioned pre-market on that spike down), not doing anything else, as this can stretch up into the 7th and I dont want to increase my short position here. You saw how they can do destroy both sides with am fckery, so have stops if you are in green, do not let your trade turn against you! Again its Friday, DO NOT OVER TRADE! Dont give them back your weekly gains!
SP:SPX
by RealTima
31
SPX - I got you all targets hit! Well we hit all the targets outlined on Oct 30-31st. Now if we wont hold today's lows we will see mid 3600 - I have a box zone at 3665-75 - and 3641.50-50SPX as the next target zone, where 3641.50 is a Maj support on closing level! - Supports on the way are - 3718-20SPX - 3689SPX Resistance: - 3791-3803 - 3907 is where the Maj resistance again Also I want to present a possibility I was taking about on Oct 31st update of a bigger H&S where its working on the head at the moment. I did some calculations and there is a chance we see 3552-89SPX on this leg down, that would be a perfect spot for the head to stop. Can extend into 3500 zone as I expect the whole move to be retraced in full from Oct 13th lows (mentioned this many times) Will post the H&S chart here in a bit
SP:SPX
by RealTima
33
SPX Weekend updateThis will be a quick update. As long as we hold 3907-13SPX on closing level we should see lower going into Tuesday am, then up into 2nd/3rd high. Another possibility is we bottom on the 2nd and reverse into the Midterms with higher levels to be seen, maybe even above 4-4.1k zone I really have no good support till the support cluster zone at 3739-3750SPX There are 2 supports on the way, look for 2 grey lines below the price. Ideally we gap down tomorrow and wont look back till 3750-40 zone is tested then a rally back to 3918SPX before the Fed decision. Im having a dilemma is we see a low or a high on the 2nd (pre-FED), ideally its a low and not the high, as I want to see a good push into Midterms with the high to be seen on week of Nov 7th. Then I would expect a strong move down to at least re-test of Oct 13th lows + or -, if not 34 handle. Its getting to a point where it can breakout, cant rule out that. If we do, we should see 4-4.1k and no way higher then 4300. Nov is a bearish month when going back to Mid-Term elections and since its a bear market, I expect Nov to be a red month with Oct being the high month. Tomorrow am will be a telling story, so far futures are slightly down and we have a gap from Sunday open, futures gaps always get filled! Will those be filled after a strong move down tomorrow into the 2nd or it might get filled before the open or in am at top. Again all eyes on 3907-13SPX as a maj resistance going into tomorrow. If the price closes strongly above that resistance tomorrow, I will get long into Nov 2nd high. So far Im swing short and quite under the water from Fri close. Its going to be a very volatile month, so dont get emotional thinking that you're missing the train and jump when tomorrow it all can dramatically change
SP:SPX
by RealTima
8
SPX still unclearI have no good feeling on either direction here. Its all can be muted all the way till the 2nd decision In idea it has to gap down and retrace into Fri am lows around 3808SPX or so Ideally we test 374-50 support zone and then rally up for a higher or lower high, back testing 3907-13SPX level Its all up to 3707-13SPX level on closing level, bull/bear line Futures are up at this moment, so hard to make a call here, If we hold in am, I will do a long trade as it might get another squeeze into 4010-20SPX zone with 3960SPX as a smaller degree resistance on the way. Im swing short and under the water, I do believe that November month will be negative and I have huge doubts of Santa Rally being present this year. There is a chance we get a Santa Crappy into EOY instead:) If I see something solid in am, I will post it right away, for now as long as we hold 3907-13SPX Im looking for lower levels to be seen.
SP:SPX
by RealTima
18