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Spx500analysis

SPXSPX Look how interesting. After this crisis that we are experiencing with the corona virus, several opportunities have arisen to buy assets over sold and giving a great asymmetry that is ridiculous. But, everything is not flowers, the government had to print money like never before, causing the dollar to depreciate and inflaming the consumer price index. Making it so that later (nowadays) I had to raise the interest rate. And that reflects everything on the chart. On the chart, we see a bullish continuation pattern. But for the moment he is under. It will probably only break this line when the US shows interest rate easing, causing investors to start exiting their bonds that are bad at the end and going back to equities, when this happens again, the bulls will boom and will start to dominate the market again. Relative to this pattern on the chart it is called the descending megaphone. It tends to widen a lot when the market turns pessimistic. An example of this is the Nikkei index. It started to widen in the 1991's and only came out in 2013. And if we analyze the past, we see the pattern repeating itself again today, but not in a smaller size.
SP:SPXLong
by DuhNT
2
SPX gapped up, no Fri sell off repeate, main support is at 4025We didnt get a move down off am highs as I was hoping for, gap up above 4020-35 happen, so the move lower is off the table. Now 4025 and 4015 are 2 main supports to hold for next week to continue advance. 4085 is next target. This still can be a fakeout and if we close below am open, and especially below 4015SPX it will be bearish and I will be looking for 3925 to test early next week before push to higher levels. I got stopped on half short from overnight and holding the other half for the fakeout scenario. Will hedge at 4025 and 4015 level (will cut if we close below 4015) So far the pathway up is in play, I dont expect much lower till 4125-35 test and ideally 4200 P.S. Dont forget to like my posts, so it gets pushed up on TV for others to see as well. Thanks in advance!
SP:SPX
by RealTima
7
SPX weekly closing day - Fri updateHi everyone! Im still battling with timing on the high and potential crash this/next month. We either bottom this month, we have interest rate decision on the 21st and then up into Oct 3rd week where the turn suppose to happen and last into EOM or even Nov. My timing showing a low in Oct/Nov. There is a chance for us to see 4425! but the lows we just had must hold, then that high will be early Oct. But there are several supper strong resistances to overtake: - 4085 - 4125-35 - 4308 - 4385SPX My fib calculation as well as previous calculations support this possible pathway, then the Oct/Nov low will be in 3240SPX zone!!! - There is also a 61.8 retracement at 3195SPX off 2020 Mar lows! - This move up will be a perfect C wave up of the bigger B wave in case we made A high in Aug (I have this pathway outlined in green count) My main count is still to hold 4125-35 and ideally stretch to 4200SPX before serious selling into EOM. - I have Panic month on Oct in SPX and Sep for the DOW. Interesting thing is SPX had a panic month on Sep as well, but cycles have moved it to Oct now. But I want to be open for a potential screw up of the bears and making the bulls believe we are on the pathway to ATHs (again). That alone will screw up so many! Ideally we make a higher monthly close in Sep and intraday high early Oct, then the cycles will match with the turn in Oct where we can have a huge sell into MidTerms. - Then we should rally into EOY to do a damage control and top out in Jan. Im still battling about Santa Rally as this year is completely different from others. - Also energy and food crisis in Europe might put a lot of pressure into the markets, unless there is a bigger war erupted and the European money will flow into the US. Which I do expect to happen next year or 2024... So lets talk about tomorrow, so I can go to sleep: Today's close was into the wall with last 10 min pump, that usually ends up in following day being red, at least first part of it. Also closed below intraday highs = not bullish. - Needs a gap up above 4020 (and ideally 4030) or we should see lower levels tomorrow. Im short into tomorrow from the close and some from AHs highs, half position. Last few weeks we dump big on Friday's, will it repeat tomorrow? My bet is yes. Tomorrow is a turning day! Ideally we see a higher low tomorrow and reverse hard into last hour or 2 of the day and never look back, that would setup a move for much higher next week Its VIX OPEX on Wed, triple witching week 200MA here on 4h chart is the ideal target for this move! - Or 4125-35 and ideal at 4200+ for the top of this move this month Tomorrow resistance is at: - first resistance 4020SPX - Main resistance to take 40350SPX - 4085SPX is the closing resistance for higher levels early next week The only real support I have now is low 3800 cluster, if we test 3885-3900 again it will slice it imo. So lets see if they can push it up and save the day before and at least the OPEX and the interest rate decision on the 21st. Have a good night! P.S. Dont forget to like my posts, so it gets pushed up on TV for others to see as well. Thanks in advance!
SP:SPX
by RealTima
8
SPX Sunday email updateHere is my SPX update I sent out to those who are on my email list: Ideally we see lower open on Sunday and maybe Monday and then push higher into the cash open on Tuesday (we already got the first part), that would be bullish. Also, I wont rule out a move down to 3840-50ES on Monday and 12k NQ and reverse to open green on Tuesday, that would be very bullish imo. - NQ must hold 12055 and the ES 3915 and 3905 on any test (ideally it wont test it at all!) - Going below Fri, Thu lows will be very bearish and the bullish count will be buried. There is still a huge potential of a crash from the oversold conditions. But I hope the big boys will lift it up again into OPEX time and distribute and sell more before the big rug pull I'm expecting in Sep/Oct time. We have met my first target on the upside to the penny, straight into the circle I put early on the chart early July. - This is the chart (link below) from Jul 17th (just click the play button on the chart from your desktop or laptop). As you noticed I have not changed my main pathway even once! In fact I haven't changed my main market view since end of Nov of the 2021 (was one month early on the SPX when NDX did hit the high that month)! I still believe we are not going to 5500 like some others do for the whole year and hope I saved many accounts from being blown up on the long side. At least for those who listened to me in Dec/Jan. I will be wrong at some point on the bigger picture and will reevaluate when I see signs of the changes, otherwise its playing out well this year so far - The market do test both sides and it seems the high came earlier by less then 2 weeks. - My main goal is to figure the low area and the timing for the upcoming lows this fall, as I don't want to get trapped on the short side and wait for "one more low" before the Santa Rally (if we even going to have one this year). But Im expecting the next high to come in Jan and turn down to Apr final low of this first big Bear leg down (I call it the big A) On SPX simple chart, you can see that we are in the thinnest part of the cloud and usually its an easy breakdown/break up zone. We really have to hold that 3895-3910SPX zone for the markets to push higher from here. The main resistance for Tuesday is at 4025-30SPX! If we gap up above it, then the next resistance is at 4060 and 4080. 4015 will become the main support! I'm not sure if its doable to have a 100 points gap up on Monday, but it has to gap up above 3960SPX! - If the open will be flat its not bullish and it can sell again to make new lows into 3850 zone. I'm very skeptical of this price action, its very weird imo and there is something behind it, which can shake the markets hard, both directions, but mainly to the downside. All the surprises are to the downside now. My main target for this move up (if we have bottomed) is 4125-35SPX, that would be a very strong resistance to take. Above it, it can stretch back to 4250 and even 4285SPX. So again, SPX MUST take 4025 level and then hold 4015! Only then I will be looking for those higher levels I mentioned above. Enjoy rest of your long weekend!
SP:SPX
by RealTima
8
SPX must take 3997 to continue higherVery important to get above 3992-97 tomorrow to continue this move up! If we reject it in am, very dangerous sign. Ideally we go up into that target, then retrace and go above 4k level. The price penetrated my support cluster zone (3910-50) and (very important) closed above all 4 supports we broke today, its bullish. The issue is, we need a confirmation and trade above Thursday close. Also the 3992-97 resistance zone! Last time we failed that test, the rest is history. So tomorrow numbers are going to be an important market mover imo, Projected high is on the 5th, low is on the 7th and high is on the 12-13th, ABC like move up is what Im expecting Main resistance is at 4025SPX and the 4076-80SPX Very important - the surprise is on the downside! This has a potential to crash hard, have stops! Have a good night
SP:SPX
by RealTima
25
SPX very muted reaction to Fri sell offI was expecting a better rally off today's lows. Main support cluster is 3910-50SPX Main resistance is at 4125 and 4160-65SPX One more support is in 3992-96 zone Was looking for a low on the 29th, we got that, tomorrow will be a tell if we get a reversal Tuesday. Im planning on buying the longs tomorrow if we make new lows and hold into the 2-5th high. NQ already hit 2 targets and one more to go (doesnt have to go lower, so careful with shorting). We are in bottoming timing zone, must note that!
SP:SPX
by RealTima
8
SPX end of the week updateI had no time to post this last night, but I did the ES. We did hit my upper target at 4210-20, reversed and never looked back! Was looking for this move for several days now, but it came so big, I didnt expect to have so much of a move in 1 day. This gives me more confidence on my lower target zone to hit 3930-50SPX So for today's close 2 very important numbers are: - 4157 -4125 Closing below second number will make me even more confident of seeing that lower target next week. Main supports are: - 4078 (expect a good bounce from this number, ideally to test 5150 level) - 4050 Main daily resistance is at 4177 now have a great weekend
SP:SPXShort
by RealTima
23
SPX must watch number for the close is 4135.30!Watch 4135.30SPX number, closing below will flush tomorrow and vice versa! 1h is showing a positive divergence when 15min is actually setting up for a flush, RSI is below 50, MACD below 0. It should give one way or another! Very interesting thing is this, next stop is at 4069-80 and nothing till 3951! On the upside must close above 4140.20 for a push higher. Resistance is at 4140, 4211 and 4308.50 (again) My bottoming timing is on the 25th
SP:SPX
by RealTima
17