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Spx500analysis

SPX very muted reaction to Fri sell offI was expecting a better rally off today's lows. Main support cluster is 3910-50SPX Main resistance is at 4125 and 4160-65SPX One more support is in 3992-96 zone Was looking for a low on the 29th, we got that, tomorrow will be a tell if we get a reversal Tuesday. Im planning on buying the longs tomorrow if we make new lows and hold into the 2-5th high. NQ already hit 2 targets and one more to go (doesnt have to go lower, so careful with shorting). We are in bottoming timing zone, must note that!
SP:SPX
by RealTima
8
SPX end of the week updateI had no time to post this last night, but I did the ES. We did hit my upper target at 4210-20, reversed and never looked back! Was looking for this move for several days now, but it came so big, I didnt expect to have so much of a move in 1 day. This gives me more confidence on my lower target zone to hit 3930-50SPX So for today's close 2 very important numbers are: - 4157 -4125 Closing below second number will make me even more confident of seeing that lower target next week. Main supports are: - 4078 (expect a good bounce from this number, ideally to test 5150 level) - 4050 Main daily resistance is at 4177 now have a great weekend
SP:SPXShort
by RealTima
23
SPX must watch number for the close is 4135.30!Watch 4135.30SPX number, closing below will flush tomorrow and vice versa! 1h is showing a positive divergence when 15min is actually setting up for a flush, RSI is below 50, MACD below 0. It should give one way or another! Very interesting thing is this, next stop is at 4069-80 and nothing till 3951! On the upside must close above 4140.20 for a push higher. Resistance is at 4140, 4211 and 4308.50 (again) My bottoming timing is on the 25th
SP:SPX
by RealTima
17
SPX flagging, there is a good setup for a good size gap down SPX flagging, there is a good setup for a good size gap down tomorrow. Again has to gap down below 4255-57SPX to mark the top being in place (reference to March topping pattern) If we gap down to 4189-4207SPX (the bottom of the channel) and hold it early from the open, then I will go long for a move up into the close. If this is what will play out, then we should re-test 4308.50-23 on Monday with a gap up and crap. So must watch number for tomorrow is 4189-4207. Must gap down below 4255 to have this setup more probable! Some good setups are coming, just need to be patient. Maj resistance is at 4308.5SPX on closing level.
SP:SPXShort
by RealTima
26
SPX needs a Gap Down below 4255-57 tomorrow...Quick update. The price needs to gap down tomorrow below 4255-57 to confirm the top being in place. Usually this type of the move trap bulls for long, so as long as we gap down hard tomorrow, I can mark the top being in. There is still a room to squeeze to 4330-34, but Im not really playing it unless I see a good setup. If we gap up tomorrow, will have to revisit my charts. Tomorrow should continue today's day, we had a reversal to downside and if this is real we should see a low on the 22nd-23rd, small bounce 23-24th and last low or higher low on the 25-26th 24th is a panic cycle day! Mark it on your calendar Numbers to watch tomorrow: - Maj resistance is the same - 4308.50 (on closing level) - First main support is at 4255-57 - 4220 and next is at 4175 - Ideal target of this move is at 4125-46 Ideally we should see something similar of a move from EOM Mar high. You can revisit a gap down below 4520, which was retested and never seen since after. Tomorrow's move should be a start of the first move down, fits with cycle lows into 22-23rd or 25-26th, then a rally into Labour Day high/lower high. The week of Sep 5th is a panic cycle week, so a gap down from there is expected to trap all the bulls, especially after staying long over the long weekend. Have a good night
SP:SPXShort
by RealTima
2
SPX Aug 17th updateExpected a high being hit today, we got it. Expected a close below 4308.5SPX, we got it. Expected a red close, got it only on NASDAQ and Small Caps. As long as we stay below 4340SPX we should see lower is my next expectation. VIX (see my update earlier) has a clear ISH pattern. Main support is 4177SPX Tomorrow must watch numbers are - 4285 and especially 75, failure of holding the last number can be a good sign of the local top, need much lower to mark the maj top! - Resistance is the same 4308.50 on the closing level. - Upper target zone is around 4330-34SPX in case it wants to tag it, Im not playing it and will be looking for a short setup instead. I expect this to dive down to 4150+- SPX zone by the 24th-26th and one more push to lower low /double top, or if broken above - 4425+ sometime early Sep. Not favouring the second scenario, but can be a case for the larger B wave top in Jan. Im not in the camp of new ATH's and the lows being in, I dont change my count to fit the price or put many counts to be right regardless. If Im wrong at some point (everyone makes mistakes), I will admit and only then change my view. We are not even close to have that view changed at this point. Also want to bring the attention to Sep and hope many will make a note of this warning - there is a chance we could crash that month and my charts do reflect that. Will it be serious or not as much, I have no idea, but I see some serious signs of something happening that month. You have been warned. Have a good night
SP:SPXShort
by RealTima
17
SPX hit 4308.50 target!Ideal target has been met! Watch to close below 4308.50, ideally we close red, tomorrow will be a bigger sell off with the bounce on the 18th. The target zone is at 4300-33, it can stretch into 20s, I will short it there, or short if we close below 4308.50 Timing should be right as per my last night update. I will post a zoomed out chart after the close with the expected pathway into Oct low. One thing to mention is I wont be holding any longs after end of this month! Sep can produce a good crash, you've been warned!
SP:SPXShort
by RealTima
2
SPX gap fill is at 4300.16, maj resisatcne is at 4308.50Its a turning day tomorrow, the 16th, expect it to be an intraday or a closing high. Super close to the Gap Fill at 4300.16 and my main target/resisatnce at 4308.50. Had that number since Jun, didnt expect it to get hit mid of Aug but EOM or first days of Sep. Timing for the low is on Aug 26th and I expect 4010-30 to hold! Might get to 4050-60SPX only, will calculate target when I see that we topped. 4200 will have to be lost at min, today this number could rise. This Fri Max Pain is at 405 SPY, something to watch! So I was thinking if we see a low on the 26th, then there is a high chance we stretch into the Sep OPEX for bear max pain and suck every bull in at 4425-35SPX. That was my ideal target before we saw lower in June, now its secondary target.
SP:SPXShort
by RealTima
13
SPX is in the target and maj resistance zoneNothing much to add since my most recent updates. The price is in the target zone I had for a while now. Was expecting a good size pullback, never happened. Im still in some trapped ES short, as well as RTY from Fri close and some SPY puts. We got right into the Yellow dotted line I had for months now, its the main resistance line and right in our 4308SPX target zone. Maj daily resistance is at 4308-35SPX Maj support (and I expect it to hold) is at 4000-08SPX Might stretch into 4930-50, but low 4k has higher chance in holding on the upcoming pullback. As noted on the RTY chart, there is a chance we wont tag 200MA, too many are looking for one to get hit. We should get some sort of pullback next week, how deep it will be, I dont know, but it can be quite fast. Maj turn dates are the 16th and week of 29th, Im assuming that week will mark the high, might be lower high. We have 9 unfilled gaps since Jun low, I expect those to get filled by Oct low. Im expecting a double bottom or a marginal lower hit in to below 3450SPX zone before a good size rally into EOY. Sep comes up as a panic month, I expect a good size reversal that month and it can get quite ugly in Oct. I see some serious market movers Sep/Oct time, might stretch into Nov Midterm elections. Those in power will do everything to rig it, so expect more international instability as well as something serious in the states. Interesting and very dangerous times we live in. Very important to gap down tomorrow to mark temp high. Expect a counter trend next 2 weeks into week of 29th. 2 scenarios Im watching: - top in main target zone of 4308-35SPX - top at 4425SPX in case it wants to extend into mid of Sep
SP:SPXShort
by RealTima
6
SPX quick updateNothing much I can add, but few things: Lots of evidence of the market hitting the ceiling - SPX is at 61.8 fib retracement, very important to watch - Added a trendline off Feb 2020 and Sep 2020 highs, we are right at the resistance zone. - Main target (4308-30) is getting close to hit with no 4th wave pullback but relentless grind in a C wave up. - Weekly bullish reversal is only at 4385SPX on closing level, we are not going to hit it today. - Daily is at 4308, same as the main target, also a gap to fill. - MACD, RSI, Stoch etc are all in overbought territory, can last for several days more to hit that 4308+ target - We have 9 gaps on the downside left, I expect those to get fill in Sep/Oct - VIX is giving another long signal and sell to equities, need to watch the close below the Bollinger band to confirm Im only day trading and have few ES under the water I m holding. Will be short over the weekend with NQ, especially if we reverse into the close and close below the highs. My internet is still very bad and technicians are only coming tomorrow end of the day, cant trade much in this environment but using my cell data for small trades
SP:SPXShort
by RealTima
4
SPX back into the broken channel, fakeout was expected since my SPX back into the broken channel, fakeout was expected since my last night update. ES has the same look. Im having internet issues all day, barely traded few times. Might internet problem can last up to end of Saturday, might be an issue posting till then. I will try my best to post when I have internet working Daily S1 is at 4383.52, we got a bit shy of that target. 4h chart is showing a good negative divergence Tomorrow should follow throw if we got the fakeout or break above the trendline again. If second we will see 4308+ by Aug 16th. Im still looking for the low on the 16th, tomorrow will be a tell if we got an inversion or we are good to go for the low
SP:SPXShort
by RealTima
4
SPX is at 100% extension still see the whole move as bear rally- VIX gave a long signal and short signal for the markets, same as we had on the 29th of July. Tomorrow we have a directional change as well as Fri with clear low on the 16th. I would like to see a good move lower starting tomorrow or Fri and a gap down on Monday. Volatility spike on Monday supports my view on this possible outcome. And then reversal day on Tuesday with lower low in am and higher close then Monday to mark a temp bottom. Im swing short both ES (under the water) and NQ AH's. I did trade NQ and ES on the long side last night and woke up to some very nice gains, happy with seeing a good long setup last night. So my paper loss on the ES short was very well offset today, not counting every day day trading. Im fine holding those shorts with no stop for now. Can we extend, 100% we can if it wants too and my ideal target still seats at 4308-30SPX. Please note that we are supper close to my min target I had for second month now - 4225SPX (very close and I wont be upset that we wont hit it:). I didn't expect that we get there on a straight line with such low pullbacks, but we did. And I'm trapped with some swing ES short for second week now (which is fine with me as I day trade through the day with NQ and make all that paper loss back with both long and short trades, like I did from last night entry) My downside targets are the same - 4012-28 and ideal 3992 and 3950SPX. All we need is to break 4125SPX Important levels (on closing level) for tomorrow and rest of the week to watch are: Support, Daily: - Maj is at 4135 and then 4079 on closing level - Air below 4079 all the way to 3860-70SPX and 3810-20SPX Weekly: - There is only one support on weekly level and its at 3636SPX Resistance Daily - Maj is at 4308SPX - Air above 4308 all the way till 4460SPX! Weekly Resistance is at 4385SPX I will update NQ chart tomorrow, it was updated to those who are on my email list though. Enjoy/Share/Like
SP:SPXShort
by RealTima
2