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Spx500analysis

SPX hit 4308.50 target!Ideal target has been met! Watch to close below 4308.50, ideally we close red, tomorrow will be a bigger sell off with the bounce on the 18th. The target zone is at 4300-33, it can stretch into 20s, I will short it there, or short if we close below 4308.50 Timing should be right as per my last night update. I will post a zoomed out chart after the close with the expected pathway into Oct low. One thing to mention is I wont be holding any longs after end of this month! Sep can produce a good crash, you've been warned!
SP:SPXShort
by RealTima
2
SPX gap fill is at 4300.16, maj resisatcne is at 4308.50Its a turning day tomorrow, the 16th, expect it to be an intraday or a closing high. Super close to the Gap Fill at 4300.16 and my main target/resisatnce at 4308.50. Had that number since Jun, didnt expect it to get hit mid of Aug but EOM or first days of Sep. Timing for the low is on Aug 26th and I expect 4010-30 to hold! Might get to 4050-60SPX only, will calculate target when I see that we topped. 4200 will have to be lost at min, today this number could rise. This Fri Max Pain is at 405 SPY, something to watch! So I was thinking if we see a low on the 26th, then there is a high chance we stretch into the Sep OPEX for bear max pain and suck every bull in at 4425-35SPX. That was my ideal target before we saw lower in June, now its secondary target.
SP:SPXShort
by RealTima
13
SPX is in the target and maj resistance zoneNothing much to add since my most recent updates. The price is in the target zone I had for a while now. Was expecting a good size pullback, never happened. Im still in some trapped ES short, as well as RTY from Fri close and some SPY puts. We got right into the Yellow dotted line I had for months now, its the main resistance line and right in our 4308SPX target zone. Maj daily resistance is at 4308-35SPX Maj support (and I expect it to hold) is at 4000-08SPX Might stretch into 4930-50, but low 4k has higher chance in holding on the upcoming pullback. As noted on the RTY chart, there is a chance we wont tag 200MA, too many are looking for one to get hit. We should get some sort of pullback next week, how deep it will be, I dont know, but it can be quite fast. Maj turn dates are the 16th and week of 29th, Im assuming that week will mark the high, might be lower high. We have 9 unfilled gaps since Jun low, I expect those to get filled by Oct low. Im expecting a double bottom or a marginal lower hit in to below 3450SPX zone before a good size rally into EOY. Sep comes up as a panic month, I expect a good size reversal that month and it can get quite ugly in Oct. I see some serious market movers Sep/Oct time, might stretch into Nov Midterm elections. Those in power will do everything to rig it, so expect more international instability as well as something serious in the states. Interesting and very dangerous times we live in. Very important to gap down tomorrow to mark temp high. Expect a counter trend next 2 weeks into week of 29th. 2 scenarios Im watching: - top in main target zone of 4308-35SPX - top at 4425SPX in case it wants to extend into mid of Sep
SP:SPXShort
by RealTima
6
SPX quick updateNothing much I can add, but few things: Lots of evidence of the market hitting the ceiling - SPX is at 61.8 fib retracement, very important to watch - Added a trendline off Feb 2020 and Sep 2020 highs, we are right at the resistance zone. - Main target (4308-30) is getting close to hit with no 4th wave pullback but relentless grind in a C wave up. - Weekly bullish reversal is only at 4385SPX on closing level, we are not going to hit it today. - Daily is at 4308, same as the main target, also a gap to fill. - MACD, RSI, Stoch etc are all in overbought territory, can last for several days more to hit that 4308+ target - We have 9 gaps on the downside left, I expect those to get fill in Sep/Oct - VIX is giving another long signal and sell to equities, need to watch the close below the Bollinger band to confirm Im only day trading and have few ES under the water I m holding. Will be short over the weekend with NQ, especially if we reverse into the close and close below the highs. My internet is still very bad and technicians are only coming tomorrow end of the day, cant trade much in this environment but using my cell data for small trades
SP:SPXShort
by RealTima
4
SPX back into the broken channel, fakeout was expected since my SPX back into the broken channel, fakeout was expected since my last night update. ES has the same look. Im having internet issues all day, barely traded few times. Might internet problem can last up to end of Saturday, might be an issue posting till then. I will try my best to post when I have internet working Daily S1 is at 4383.52, we got a bit shy of that target. 4h chart is showing a good negative divergence Tomorrow should follow throw if we got the fakeout or break above the trendline again. If second we will see 4308+ by Aug 16th. Im still looking for the low on the 16th, tomorrow will be a tell if we got an inversion or we are good to go for the low
SP:SPXShort
by RealTima
4
SPX is at 100% extension still see the whole move as bear rally- VIX gave a long signal and short signal for the markets, same as we had on the 29th of July. Tomorrow we have a directional change as well as Fri with clear low on the 16th. I would like to see a good move lower starting tomorrow or Fri and a gap down on Monday. Volatility spike on Monday supports my view on this possible outcome. And then reversal day on Tuesday with lower low in am and higher close then Monday to mark a temp bottom. Im swing short both ES (under the water) and NQ AH's. I did trade NQ and ES on the long side last night and woke up to some very nice gains, happy with seeing a good long setup last night. So my paper loss on the ES short was very well offset today, not counting every day day trading. Im fine holding those shorts with no stop for now. Can we extend, 100% we can if it wants too and my ideal target still seats at 4308-30SPX. Please note that we are supper close to my min target I had for second month now - 4225SPX (very close and I wont be upset that we wont hit it:). I didn't expect that we get there on a straight line with such low pullbacks, but we did. And I'm trapped with some swing ES short for second week now (which is fine with me as I day trade through the day with NQ and make all that paper loss back with both long and short trades, like I did from last night entry) My downside targets are the same - 4012-28 and ideal 3992 and 3950SPX. All we need is to break 4125SPX Important levels (on closing level) for tomorrow and rest of the week to watch are: Support, Daily: - Maj is at 4135 and then 4079 on closing level - Air below 4079 all the way to 3860-70SPX and 3810-20SPX Weekly: - There is only one support on weekly level and its at 3636SPX Resistance Daily - Maj is at 4308SPX - Air above 4308 all the way till 4460SPX! Weekly Resistance is at 4385SPX I will update NQ chart tomorrow, it was updated to those who are on my email list though. Enjoy/Share/Like
SP:SPXShort
by RealTima
2
SPX Aug 8th updateDidnt do a weekend update, was no point, nothing new since the last updates. NQ hit it's resistance cluster I mentioned before, SPX did as well and even exceeded a bit, but now way below it. Resistance cluster is at 4160-77SPX, where 68 is the maj resistance on closing level Im going to watch 3992 and 3938-40SPX level for the support to hold and a push into EOM after. Some changes on my chart, we did in fact hit one of the channels I had for a while and retraced of it. Now some Elliot Wave slapping from non expert (I find short term EWT counts useless!): - What if the 4 is over and we will star a first move down and 2nd wave up will be beck into the same trendchannel resistance. The fibs align with my main target zone for the wave 3 down as well as the 5th wave landing. That would make it 5 waves down into Sep/Oct low! How big of a slap those EW "analysts" will get after their 5500 call for over then 8 months gets destroyed. I know some will just add another count and be so "right", always "right" I still favor another push into 4300-30 zone, but now see a much more bearish potential. We are not even close to a bottom, the bull market wont be back till 2023 or even 2024, only bear market rallies!
SP:SPXShort
by RealTima
12
My last night SPX update with detailed notes belowThis is what was sent to those who are on my email list. I have 2 pathways going into the mid of the month. - 5 waves up, then the 4th wave should be limited to 3930-40 and might even get to 3985-92 only. 3910 MUST hold on any test for this count to be alive. It means next 12-13 days will be less volatile move lower and limited. - Much deeper B wave down to ideal target zone of 3850+- to even 3800-10. This pathway has higher odds as we have volatility rising from the 8th all the way to the 15th. Also tomorrow is picking up as a volatile day, I wont be surprised the first gap of 4091.19 penetrated by tomorrow or Fri am. There is a chance that the second gap of 4072 will be filled as well on this move down. Ideally we see that low Fri am, then end the week with a rally into the close to trap the bulls and gap down on Monday. We didn't see a move lower today, so the gap fill to watch for tomorrow going into Tuesday I have a good resistance cluster for the end of the week from 4158 to 4177SPX. Max stretch I see is 4200 but might not be seen till after the mid month low. Ideal target is 4225 and 4255-60 (depends on the day we make the high) with possible stretch to 4308-30SPX. Failure to close the gap at 4300 will be a huge sign of a much bigger correction ahead. So regardless of the outcome I see lower levels (double bottom if we stretch into the 4308-30 zone) by Oct low. Im only short few ES, those are under the water, I will be adding tomorrow and stay short over the weekend. Expect the market to move and get some volatility from the next week. Looking to be out from short position and flip long mid month and my timing for the low is 16th of Aug. Tomorrow is the directional change day, the price should start moving into Tuesday, up into Thursday and final move lower on the 16th. Main support for the next week is 3992SPX, then 3939SPX Ideally we gap and crap tomorrow into the resistance cluster mentioned above, it might just gap down.
SP:SPXShort
by RealTima
8
SPX weekend update Im slightly short as of Fri close, not planning to hold for long, looking at other day to get in with swings. Notes from the chart: 4308.5SPX is the main resistances now (must hold for continuation lower) Resistance - 4158.50, 4160.2, 4177.60, 4168.80 (Maj) SPX - Low target for tomorrow 4052, 4027 and Main support 4012SPX - Buy if seen in am, don't buy if we see higher first - 3910 and 3943 are the maj support zone now Buy zone for tomorrow with stops! - 4012, 4027.50SPX - 4000 must hold on any try or it falls apart and will get 50MA tested Short - 4154-60SPX, no short above 4175, going to 4216-25 - Low (intraday) was on Jun 17th; - No current long position, only short Old pathway still can be in play: - rally for a week or 2 back to 4150-4205 SPX (we are here now), retest of 3890SPX or 3830by Mid Aug and then main target of 4330+ and possible 4425+ summer time - Ideally extend to 4425SPX (4300 main resistance on the way up) summer rally target - 110MA After revising my chart, there is a high chance we are in a 5 wave down pathway with 4 being almost over. Larger ABC pathway down into Sep/Oct low as being just an A wave, B wave up to Jan high and C down to Apr low Potential 5 waves down is forming! Next mid Jun low can be lower low! Came as a main low and possible 5 wave down is over and we are in a B wave up Additional to add: We did hit 110MA on Fri high and retraced, that target alone can be enough for this move and the price doesn't have to test 200MA in case of a serious bear trend. There are 2 downtrend channels, either of them can be in play, those are visual on my chart. - We have a high volatility going into the 4th Aug - As well as from the 8th of Aug to 15th. I'm expecting at least a temp high on the 1st or the 3rd, if was not hit on Fri . Low mid month and another advance into the week of 29th on neg div . After that expect a huge move down and my targets as of now are 3430 and 3455. There is a Fib fan confluence at the same levels I really don't want to see lower, as if that happens,then we could be in a 5 waves structure into Q1 of 2023 instead of ABC move down.
SP:SPX
by RealTima
5
SPX updated bear channelI did send this chart during the last trading hour yesterday to those who are on my email list. I have revised the bear channel and it fits much better with the current price action as well as the fibs. Im short here and looking to add if we see a double tap of a bit higher high, otherwise doing only day trading. Its a weekly and monthly closing day today, so must watch numbers are: - 4090.80PX on closing level for weekly continuation or rejection of the price. - 3950.50SPX on closing level for monthly continuation or rejection. If closing below the second number it will be a huge tell of much lower levels to come. Closing above 4090 can bring the 4300 into play earlier then I thought and that would make me change the ABC pathway with Jun 14th being as a B wave. Main supports are: - 4060SPX - 4002-10SPX - 3939SPX - 3890SPX Im mostly off today, will do a weekend update only.
SP:SPX
by RealTima
8
SPX still trendingHe didnt gap down and gap up today, so no call for the full retracement off yesterday's low into Fri. The next targets are 4075 and 4090SPX I have some good confluence with the 4090SPX and as far it was so far away from a week ago, its getting close to it. Tomorrow is a double directional day, watching for the 4090 to be hit to mark the high. Also getting close to the monthly closing, tomorrow, also a weekly closing. So a lot of volatility is expected, might do some lotto options. - Weekly closing resistance level is right at my second target - 4090.80SPX. Closing above will be bullish going into the next week. - Monthly closing resistance is lower and it's at 3950.50, closing above will be bullish going into the month of Aug. that would support my view on higher low mid Aug. So tomorrow is a very important day, if we do sell off hard and close below 3950SPX, then it could bring lower lows into mid of Aug. If we do close above 4090, then I would redo my ABC move off the lows with B being in place on 14th of July. Then 4225 becomes the target
SP:SPX
by RealTima
4