Spx500analysis
SPX500 likely to fall!Hey tradomaniacs,
the recent fakeout above the key-resistance is a strong indication of a falling market.
Previous fractal has shown two fakeouts and liquidity-grabbing into both directions showing trapped volume in that zone.
This can cause big players to cause fakemomentum to attract more buyers in order to absorb liquidity.
A potential S/H/S-Pattern would be another confirmation for my assumption.
Let`s see what happens!
GBPJPY Entries + ExitsThe 1on1 video is currently out, if you would like it in order to understand how to play my analysis FULLY, please let me know privately.
All likes/comments and feedback are very much appreciated!
How to play my chart:
Buy at support, sell at resistance. When you open this chart you'll see a green entry and a red entry. When the candlestick hits the green entry, you place a buy. If however that support buy doesn't go into profit and goes negative -35 or -60 pips (depending if it was a fast break/or if the break landed on a minute 15 zone), if it breaks you would then exit your buy and immediately enter the sell. You would then ride that sell down to green TP1, or you could then repeat and play the buy/break there.
The same exact thing goes for resistance sell/break plays!
SP500 WeeklyLooking at the SP500 Weekly chart, we have so far retraced about 11% from the top, and it doesn't seem to be the bottom. The market appears to be going for another test of the 4200-4250 area. If the support breaks, we could reach the 4000-3900 zone.
If we try to simulate Covid not happening, consider that the market has seen a higher growth before Covid, take into account all other factors (FED, inflation, current tensions) and try to simulate longer-term behavior, it also brings us towards the 3900-4000 area.
The area of 3900-4000 seems to be where Weekly EMA200 would be touched, which SP500 likes to test. On top of that, the correction of SP500 would be close to 20%, which doesn't sound unreasonable.
If SP500 weekly support at 4200-4250 breaks, it could take up until late May for the market to find the bottom and reverse the trend.
Better safe than sorry.
SPX500 about to fall! Good FX-Trades incoming!Hey Tradomaniacs,
Here two key-notes that shows a divergence of the ECB and FED:
1️⃣ Very hawkish FED
"The market now sees a strong chance of the Federal Reserve starting its monetary policy tightening with a 50 basis point hike in March, especially after St. Louis Fed President James Bullard stated that he has become "dramatically" more hawkish. He added that he now wants a full percentage point of interest rate hikes over the next three U.S. central bank policy meetings."
2️⃣ Very cautious ECB
"European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde warned on Thursday that tightening monetary policy too quickly could harm the eurozone’s economic recovery, warning that the Eurozone can’t be compared to other major regions."
Read the article 👉 www.investing.com
Just in this post we can see clearly find nice opportunities as the euro is likely to fall while the Us-Dollar should continue its rally from yesterday.
Look at SPX500 and the fakeout 👉
You remember this chart? The rumors by JP Morgan have caused a rally.
One concern I have is that short-term-yields are currently stronger than long-term-yields. As long as these moves are not too extended we won`t see inverted yield-curves but as soon as that happens the markt could expect the FED to overthink its current plans as an inverted yield-curve is a sign for a recession. (I`ve explained why and how thats a problem for banks)
However, we finally might get good moves after this choppy week since we have seen the important inflation-data. 👌
SPX is about to reverse, wave 5 of C is almost completed.Hi everyone, SPX is about to complet the C wave inside this Zig Zag ABC. Max wave 5 target (the 261.8%) fib is at 4500. It's a very clean pattern, impulse down in A, ABC in B and impulse down in C on the 100% fib. SPX is already diverging (bullish Divergence Class A on the RSI).
The big question is what's next...?
It can be 2 things now, a new higher high or the beginning of a WXY in what i think can be a Cycle Wave 4 retracement.
Where this Wave 4 can go ? At least to 3935 in the 0.24 fib from our last wave 2 we made in March 2009. But in between 0.3 and 0.5 more common (probable).
Best to you !! Thanks for your comments !
SPX500 BEAUTIFUL FREE Entry + Exits!Ignore green entry!
The 1on1 video is currently out, if you would like it in order to understand how to play my analysis FULLY, please let me know privately.
All likes/comments and feedback are very much appreciated!
How to play my chart:
Buy at support, sell at resistance. When you open this chart you'll see a green entry and a red entry. When the candlestick hits the green entry, you place a buy. If however that support buy doesn't go into profit and goes negative -35 or -60 pips (depending if it was a fast break/or if the break landed on a minute 15 zone), if it breaks you would then exit your buy and immediately enter the sell. You would then ride that sell down to green TP1, or you could then repeat and play the buy/break there.
The same exact thing goes for resistance sell/break plays!
S&P500 INDEX - ATH is comingHello friends.
Please support my work by clicking the LIKE button(If you liked).Thank you!
Everything on the chart.
I'm waiting for an upward movement from the current ones or through ~4650.
TP: 4850 and 5000
cancellation of growth, consolidation below 4500
risk is justified
Good luck everyone!
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It's not financial advice.
Dont Forget, always make your own research before to trade my ideas!
Open to any questions and suggestions.
SPX500 Long Setup$SPX500 Weekly Analysis (Long)
Based on the formed ascending channel, I believe price is currently in overbought territory, and as such it will retrace back down to the lower trend line. The zone of interest is between $4,646 and $4,710.
That is of course in case the price doesn't go through the highest high level ($4,815), in which case I will either be buying the breakout or wait for a pullback in order to open a long.
Those with higher risk appetite may decide to short the security down to the above mentioned level. I personally may do that, but I'm still waiting for some more solid confirmation
SPX sky is the limit now SPX is trading at all time highs now. We remain bullish but will keep a support level at 4784 to manage our risk.
We use Aspen Trading Support & Resistance Levels to risk manage our positions. These levels are invite only and can be accessed through url in my profile information.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for information purpose only and does not constitute any investment advice.
S&P 500 Forecast: Index Pulls Back From 4700 Yet AgainThe S&P 500 has pulled back during the trading session on Thursday to show signs of weakness at the 4700 level yet again. This hesitation is something that we have seen more than once, therefore it suggests that it is going to take a significant amount of momentum to finally break out to the upside. The 50 day EMA underneath sits just below the 4600 level, which is an area that has been noisy here recently as well. That being said, I think the market is probably going to continue to see a lot of volatility as we head towards the end of the year, but I do believe that the “Santa Claus rally” is still going to be the big story.
On a pullback, I will be looking at this market for signs of strength and a bounce, therefore I will get long again. I have no interest in shorting this market, we are far too strong and although the last couple of days have been a bit difficult to deal with, we are only down about 0.2% or so from the all-time highs. This is hardly a market that is falling apart, so I think it is only a matter of time before we see value hunters taking control of this market yet again. I think at this point in time it is difficult to get overly aggressive one way or the other, but if we get a significant selling move, then I will be looking to “leg into the position.” I will add slowly and wait for opportunities on signs of recovery to get involved in a market that is obviously heading in one direction over the longer term.
I believe that the 4500 level is going to be a bit of a floor in the market, and therefore I think we continue to see plenty of money managers out there willing to pick up value due to the fact that they are chasing those returns. If we were to break down below the uptrend line, then we could go looking towards the 200 day EMA, but it is very unlikely that we will see that happen. If we do, then it could be due to a lack of liquidity as we head towards the holidays. That being said, this is a market that retains its overall shape.
ConclusionAt the morning I posted the the S&P will go long but it didn't, unfortunately it decided to stay consolidating in the channel you see in the picture, by going to the daily chart we have a beautiful spring box which is an acceleration of the bullish trend.
See you tomorrow in a new forecast !