SPX500: Will price finally DROP harder?Hey tradomaniacs,
It is getting a little bit tricky now for the stockmarket with the so called "stagflation" showing higher prices for assets and consumer goods (inflation) while the economy stagnates. 👉 An example is the yesterdays weak U.S ISM Index while prices generally rise (Wood,Wheat,Coffee,Gas etc.)❗️
So the question is: How can the central banks continue with an ongoing inflation in order to support the economy to stop the stagnation? Is more stimulus possible even though prices seem to explode? Or is the bubble ready to pop soon and we see a correction and a strong US-Dollar?
The mood is overall upbeat in terms of corona as the investment rate in the USA is really high indicated by a margin-debts but the U.S.-Stockmarket is overall not really moving upwards anymore, which could be a typical "buy the rumor sell the fact" scenario. Also keep in mind that many private-investors are currently invested providing a great opportunity for biggies to take profits / distribute volume.
Is the best of all possible worlds price in? However, I will be very cautious right now and watch the market carefully and focus in short-term-opportunities.
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Peace and good trades
Irasor
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Spx500analysis
SPX500USD 2021 Apr 12 Week (Intraday)
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SPX500USD 2021 Apr 12 Week (Intraday)
Congrats to those who took long trade per last week's analysis.
Market was kind to materialize the AB=CD target of 4125, and reached 4132
on Friday.
Last H4 candle closed off its high, and we have reached the supply line of the
upward channel. This may present opportunity for short trades on LTF.
And again, also long on pullback
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US Market Technicals Ahead (5 Apr – 9 Apr 2021)Stock market gains could continue with with the $SPX index scaling the 4,000 level for the first time last Thursday. IMF’s spring meeting and minutes from the last FOMC meeting and the ECB’s latest meetings will be in the spotlight this coming week.
Investors will also be watching if Congress will pass President Joe Biden’s massive 2 Trillion infrastructure plan announced last week. Markets in China, Germany, the UK and Australia will be closed on Monday for holidays.
Here is what you need to know to start your week.
S&P500 (US Market)
The benchmark index ($SPX) surged to its all time high with a gain of +1.61% (+64.1 points) for the week, scaling the 4,000 level for the first time last Thursday.
Those gains could continue after the Labor Department reported Friday that the U.S. economy added 916,000 jobs in March, the most in seven months, while jobs growth in February was also larger than previously estimated. T
The immediate support to watch for $SPX is at 3,989 level, a previous resistance turned support level going forward.
IMF meeting
The IMF is to begin its spring meetings (virtually) on Monday where policymakers will give a snapshot of the economic fallout from the pandemic, but also release updated forecasts for growth for 2021 and 2022.
IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva has already indicated that the updated World Economic Outlook will see an upward revision to January’s forecast for 5.5% global economic growth this year.
Central bank minutes
The Federal Reserve is to publish the minutes of its March meeting on Wednesday and investors will be on the lookout for any fresh insights on inflation amid concerns that unprecedented stimulus will lead to rising price pressures.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell played down concerns about inflation after the bank’s March meeting, saying policymakers see inflationary pressures as transient.
The ECB is to release its latest meeting minutes on Thursday. Last week ECB President Christine Lagarde said investors could test the bank’s willingness to rein in rising borrowing costs “as much as they want”.
Powell, Fed speakers
Investors will be watching an appearance by Fed Chair Jerome Powell who is due to discuss the global economy on an IMF panel Thursday.
Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is to speak at a webinar hosted by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs on Monday to discuss the global economic recovery from the pandemic.
SPX500USD 2021 Apr 05 Week (Intraday)
SPX500USD 2021 Apr 05 Week (Intraday)
Weekly / Daily / H4 = bullish
31 Mar - 01 Apr market advanced, albeit on reducing volume. Mark up
likely to continue, so we can look for long opportunity on lower TF when
pullback happens, preferably at 3991 or green zone.
Entry preference will be a the SR and the yellow line price reaction zone.
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Have a good trading week ahead!
2021 is like 73s2021 is like 73s. let's see how this play. if it went well, buy dips at bottom if you can.
1. The four most expensive words in investing are: 'This time it's different. '” So said Sir John Templeton, the legendary investor and mutual fund pioneer. The phrase contains tremendous wisdom, but only if you truly understand what it means. ... “This time it's different” has become a ubiquitous phrase...
2. we will see increasing inflation & Covid case worldwide rising this year. they printed many trillions for check stimulus also fourth stimulus check again? also seems coronavirus won't go anywhere. you can see that Covid cases is still rising on worldometers site. Imagine 1-10 million cases daily? it's not great for economy & stock market. seems vaccine is still processing but not completely at all.
3. some investors will say " dollar is in bubble but stock market won't go down" they say same thing in 73s. that's not how this works. dollar inflation makes stock market volatility & shock..
4. The Buffett Indicator at All-Time Highs Is This Cause for Concern?. it shows 223% radio of market value GDP, 79% higher than long term trend line not internet bubble.
seems too higher.
5. 2021. many poor & middle bought stocks & meme from check stimulus while rich people buying at same time. this doesn't age well. "BUY, BUY, BUY" poor getting rich, rich getting richer? nah.
that's not how this works. 2008 & 2020 was different because market was bottom but 2021 Is top not bottom. that's why. Illuminati stays. in 2030, we will see 0.1% top getting richer ever while poor & middle bottom.
my prediction could be wrong or right.
Thank you. Sorry For My Bad English. Enjoy.
SPX corrective wave (ii) pullback, Bullish Trade Setup On the Daily time frame, a pending wave (ii) on the S&P is presenting a good opportunity to establish longs once support at 3822 is reached. Look to establish bullish verticals or Positive delta butterfly spreads if the 3920 wave (ii) support level is tested for a potential move higher into wave (iii).
SPX--> bull should comeSPX today showed a hammer with gap down opening but in the end bull were able to take the market up. SPX is sitting on a support and since past 4 trading days it was tested. Today there was decreased volume but fall in price. I believe from here market should go up and we should see some few green candles. Also most of the big caps are waking up this should support upward movement.
Ideas for entertainment, they are not a trading advice
$SPX - South Liquidity Run Before heading NorthWe Should See prices start to head up after reaching into the Fair Value Gap, up towaard 3967-3965 (Depending on broker) At this point there is also a Fair Value Gap as well as Bearish Order Block. I expect price to hit this area after the around the bell 9:15= 10:300 Eastern Time. This is where you should see the initial Sell.
(SEE CHART)
and the sell should reach around 3952 before it starts to turn. Why is it making a turn north? There are equal highs that price will want to attack. Keep in Mind there are a few more areas that have liquidity a little bit lower that price could reach, 3948 has an order block as well as the top of a breaker that could start making the turn.
(See Chart)
3939 is another breaker.
(See Chart)
And lastly 3934 would break all the liquidity and hit the last breaker. Unless it wants to take a huge dive south, I don't see it getting lower than this.
Once I can realize where the turn is I'll make the call to close the short trade and to go long. In the long we're aiming for the equal highs around 3977. Other take profits are 3982-3985 as that is bearish order block and fair fair value gap before the next high. The Last take profit be the current 127% Extension. 3994.1.
Once again, I'll have to read what's happening the entire time to make sure we're getting the best out of this trade. I wanted to do a NAS one but I dont have time.
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US Market Technicals Ahead (29 Mar – 2 Apr 2021)Focus on the upcoming week will be on US employment report that due to release on Good Day (a market holiday), with forecast slated on signs of a further gradual job recovery. Market will also be watching on President Joe Biden’s infrastructure plan, which he is expected to unveil in Pittsburgh on Wednesday, along with OPEC+ meeting which could offer guidance into the coalition’s production plan from May.
Continued push and pull of the market rotation that favors cyclicals over growth and tech stocks is expected to continue into the next quarter.
Here’s what you need to know to start your week.
S&P500 (US Market)
The benchmark index ($SPX) maintained its resilience by closing +1.67% (+65.3 points) for the week. It is important to note that $SPX averted from further losses on Thursday, after a technical rebound at 3,860 level which was highlighted last week.
With $SPX remaining above its 20DMA & 50DMA and at a higher low trend formation, there are substantial traction for the index to breach 4,000 all time high level this week. The immediate support to watch for $SPX remains at 3,860 level, a break on the pivoted level from recent Thursday. Resistance to watch for $SPX is at 3,989 level, a continuation to break its all time high level.
US Employment Report (March)
The March jobs report is scheduled for a morning when the stock market is closed for the Good Friday holiday, but bonds will trade half a day, ending at noon. The labor market is expected to show signs of recovery following the approval of President Biden’s relief package and as several states ease coronavirus-induced restrictions amid the rapid pace of vaccination.
Infrastructure Plan
President Joe Biden is expected to unveil details of his $3 trillion to $4 trillion infrastructure plan on Wednesday in Pittsburgh, but strategists say it is too soon to say what form the plan could take or how large it will be in its final form.
The plan is expected to span multiple years, and Democrats are expected to seek tax hikes to pay for it.
Rotation
The rotation into cyclicals and value stocks is expected to continue into the next quarter. For the first quarter so far, energy and financials were the best performers, up about 33% and 16.5% respectively. Tech was up 1.7%, but it remains a better performer than utilities and consumer staples.
SPX500USD 2021 Mar 29 Week
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SPX500USD 2021 Mar 29 Week
Weekly / Daily / H4 = bullish
Last week's short target of 3844 not reached, as price reversed at 3856 instead.
With climatic up bar into previous resistance,
may have opportunity for short when we see toppish pattern.
3844-3856 will be the immediate support.
Entry preference will be a the SR and the yellow line price reaction zone.
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Have a good trading week ahead!
SPX500USD 2021 Mar 22 Week
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SPX500USD 2021 Mar 22 Week
Weekly = Bullish | Daily = Bullish | H4
Last week's analysis, scenario 2 unfolded.
It appears high volume up bar Bar 1 has been negated by next bar's lower close.
Prefer to short on test of high, target 3844
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SPX500USD 2021 Mar 08 Week
SPX500USD 2021 Mar 08 Week
Red/Green = preferred entry | Grey = price rotation zones
Yellow = test
W = Although still bullish, but weakness is observed.
D = Buyers came in strongly, testing 3844. Wait and see if
there is price acceptance here.
Another scenario is price coming down to test for supply first, then continue up.
Do note the top has mushroomed over
and we're still in the down channel.
Keep SL tight if you're long.
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Have a good trading week ahead!
SPX500 UPDATE with S/H/S-InverseHey tradomaniacs,
SPX500 is creating an S/H/S-Inverse-Pattern 👉
A break above the Neck-Zone could cause a clean bullish momentum as price is currently under a significant resistance-zone.
A trigger of stop-losses could attract more buyers to take action.
More risk-on-sentiment in the market would be awesome for our trades.
As you know, I can`t give you exact data for a trade as price varies from broker to broker❗️🙏
LEAVE A LIKE AND A COMMENT - I appreciate every support! =)
Peace and good trades
Irasor
Wanna see more? Don`t forget to follow me