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Spx500analysis

Was this the worst trading pair during the month of August?I believe that US30 and NAS100 are currently in a league of their own, one where it is so manipulated that not even SPX500's micro-movements can even keep up. If you found yourself in some bad trades with SPX500 recently, I wouldn't let it get to your head. Clear your brain! Good luck this week. How to play my chart: Buy at support TP's (green), sell at resistance TP's (red). When you open this chart you'll see a green entry and a red entry. When the candlestick hits the green entry, you place a buy. If however that support buy doesn't go into profit and goes negative -35 or -60 pips (depending if it was a fast break/or if the break landed on a minute 15 zone), if it breaks you would then exit your buy and immediately enter the sell. You would then ride that sell down to green TP1, or you could then repeat and play the buy/break there. The same exact thing goes for resistance sell/break plays! All likes/comments and feedback are very much appreciated!
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by ExclusivelyFX
1
SPX to new highs SPX loves cups and handles. All the highlighted Cup & Handles on daily have played out beautifully so far, they all have been to the upside so far, but now we are making one to the downside with targets towards 4150. Then how do we reach new highs? If we zoom out to monthly TF things become clearer. As long as we stay above 0.5 or close above it on monthly, we have a chance to make new highs in a year or so. I have highlighted several upside targets based on where we bounce from on monthly.
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by zakoraio
Where to from here on SPXI posted this chart few weeks ago as a follwup to my short to show few possible paths SPX is going to take after it begins the descent and SPX has followed the one where I explained about a possible break of the channel into the deviation below. please refer links below the description to look at my previous posts on SPX short idea. The only difference is that , this happened bit slowly than I anticipated , which makes this drop out of the channel less likely to be a deviation now. As you can see we are bouncing from the Suupport zone as I had highlighed in my previous post. Which brings us to the question where to from here. On The Daily TF we have first hints of a reversal or a decent size bounce from here , We have bounced from a key support and ended the day with right candle stick on the daily, but we need one more day of price action to confirm the reversal. If we get another green day without breachnig the low we are likely to head up. But If we zoom in to 4h TF things become clearer. Lets Look at the follwing chart: On Friday we broke structure to the upside on 4h and created a strong low at 4336. That number is not random , Will cover this in the next chart. If we get a pull back and break higher than fridays high we will get a full Change of trend on 4h TF. Once we do we should be able to break all the 4h strong highs until we meet the Daily Strong high at 4502 which is what I think will be hard to break and we will get a strong rejection from there. From there we can do one of the two things , either come back down create a double bottom and try again to break the daily high at 4500 and continue higher. If not we will continue the daily trend by breaking 4336 low and head lower. Now lets look at why price bounced from 4336. Following chart has the answer. If you know VPA , then you know price moves in ranges , just like candle stick patterns are fractles , Ranges can act like fractles as well. In the chart you can see There are 3 ranges R1 , R2 and R3 that formed on this uptrend. R3 is the larger range that encompasses R1 and R2 and 4336 is the VAL of this bigger range and as Per VPA theory , price in a range keeps roughly bouncing between VAH and VAL of the ranges .If you look at the VAH of R3 it concides precisely with the Daily strong high at 4500 which gives us another conflunece for a rejection there into the Daily OB shown in previous chart. Finaly if throw regular old fibs and Gann Fan into the mix we get additional confluence for a rejection at the 4475-4500 region as shown in the chart below. 4475 rehion is a gann resistance and 4475-4500 0.5 to 0.618 region of the retracement. Speculation: If we do get a move like the one I have explained , i.e move to 4500 area and reject , we will have few pattern emerge like inverse H & S and cup and handle . I have highlighted the targets if they mature. But always remember all these patterns are pure manipulation to trap retails , it totally possible that there is a fakeout into the pattern where pa comes to lower 4300s and then reverses from there can creating yet another pattern a Double bottom so be careful , only trade confirmations based on market structure change. Happy Trading All !!!
OANDA:SPX500USD
by zakoraio
1
MACRO MONDAY 7 - CHINA DEFLATIONMacro Monday (7) - Advance Release China Inflation Rate – $CNIRRY China entered into deflationary territory in July 2023 and this is being shared by many with an extremely negative outlook for markets. I believe this chart outlines a very different perspective that leans more neutral than cautionary whilst also providing a more usable framework in the event of a recession scenario playing out. 🔴The last 3 global recessions commenced during China's peak inflationary periods, not during deflationary periods. This is the first clear indication from the chart (red circles). 🔵The last 3 periods of deflation in China signaled the forming of a market bottom in 2000 (over 14 months), thee market bottom in 2008 and resulted in positive S&P500 price action in 2020 (blue areas). Two out of three times China Deflation has been immediately positive for markets. ⚠️The most contentious period of deflation can be assigned to the 2000 Dot Com crash. The commencement of this 14 month period of deflation from October 2001 did not immediately mark the bottom. Instead the S&P500 made a further c.35% decline to gradually form its bottom over those 14 months ending in December 2002. If this was to repeat we could be looking at Sept 2024 as a possible market bottom and a 35% decline would be $2.9k for the S&P....👀 This scenario is worthy of consideration especially factoring in the comparisons of the 2023 AI boom to the 2000 internet boom. As we enter a new technological epoch with the likes of Augmented Reality, Cryptocurrencies and AI, are we getting ahead of ourselves again? Do these technologies need a little more time to mature much like the internet? Are we overextended like we were in 2000? Its hard to answer no to any of these questions but against the backdrop of record levels of QE and Fiscal Deficit we have to keep an open mind as we froth in record levels of liquidity. What is useful about this chart is that if a 2000 Dot Com crash scenario was to play out from hereon, we could use China’s move back into inflationary territory (above 0% line) as a possible confirmation of a market bottom/reversal as was the case in Dec 2002. What day is it? 🤣🤣🤣 I released this early brief Macro Monday as I seen this topic repeatedly in my feed today and wanted to share the perspective as soon as possible. There is a strong possibility of a 2nd alternative Macro Monday Chart on Monday 14th. Hope to see you there! As always I hope the chart offers perspective and utility PUKA
ECONOMICS:CNIRYY
by PukaCharts
SPX at major and important resistant Area SPX Reached the major Resistance Area ( the one that start the last bear market ) 4600 IS A VERY CRITICAL area because all the target for the current movement has been reached. the Market start the trend at 44° then become overheated and reached almost 72° from my point of View the market need to cooldown in order to extend a healthy movement the best option is to reaccumulate 4080 Area the good news is every ware at he moment so be carful and activate your stop lose Level to protect your gain from any shakeout movement.
SP:SPX
by AlQasim_Analysis
Macro Monday 4 - Global Net Liquidity and SPX500Global Net Liquidity and SPX 500 Comparison The Global Net Liquidity (“GNL”) indicator provides an overview of how five major central banks liquidity provisions are collectively performing. This allows us to get a sense of whether global money supply is increasing (expansionary) or decreasing (contractionary). The GNL can provide a general indication of how much liquid funds are available in Global Bank Reserves. When there is increasing liquidity, lending in all forms to the consumer is less burdensome/restrictive for the Banks and thus consumers typically have access to more finance. If GNL is increasing this can indicate that more money is available to be lent by the Banks and spent by the consumer and businesses, and when GNL is contracting it can indicate less money is circulating and less funds are available for consumers and businesses which can negatively affect overall economic performance. GNL is available by searching for “Global Net Liquidity” in the indicator section on TradingView. Full credit for the GNL indicator goes to Dharmatech who created/copyrighted this specific indicator on TradingView. There are many Global Liquidity Indicators available on TradingView, some have more banks and metrics included, others less, this is just the one of the main indicators focusing on the big five central banks. I fully intend on making my own Global Net Liquidity Indicator which factors in the other forms of liquidity and other Banks for a more accurate indication. Whilst the impact of smaller global liquidity providers/central banks are less impactful, including them might just offer us an edge week to week. What is included in this GNL: We add the following: - Fed Balance sheet (WALCL) - Japanese Balance sheet (FRED:JPNASSETS) Converted to USD - Bank of China Balance Sheet (CNCBBS) Converted to USD - UK Balance Sheet (GBCBBS) Converted to USD - EU Balance Sheet (ECBASSET) Converted to USD And we deduct: - Reverse Repo Market (RRPONTSYD) - Treasury General Account (WTREGEN) The Chart Please acknowledge that this chart idea has built into it a speculative projection that factors in a number of generalized technical and fundamental considerations/reference points. Lets DIG IN! 1. From a TA perspective we are relying heavily on one data period from 2018 – 2020 on the GNL /S&P500 which is not ideal however a similar pattern from this period may be playing out in an amplified way at present for both. 2. From a general fundamental standpoint we draw a correlation to the Great Inflation period (1965 – 1982) but we hone in on the early years from 1966 – 1973 as these early years are similar to the high inflationary period we find ourselves stepping into at present. 3. In both 1 and 2 above the S&P500 went through significant price volatility which in both instances took the form of a megaphone pattern. Megaphone patterns have been showing up a lot in the market recently, Tesla being a case in point. Megaphone patterns are more common in volatile markets and can offer us traders or investors a structural framework to work within. Considering 1, 2 and 3 above we speculate that we may see a similar large megaphone pattern play out for the S&P500. This is illustrated in a previously shared chart called “A Crazy S&P Idea”. If you check this idea and hit play, you'll see we are currently tracking the 1966 - 1973 Great Inflation Fractal very closely. In summary: o In the past, long term GNL Contraction resulted in significant S&P500 Volatility. o In 2018 a sudden 8 month sharp 10% GNL decline as the S&P500 was continuing to new highs was an advance warning of a subsequent 14% decline in the S&P500. This is expressed on the chart as a Negative divergence. o A similar Negative Divergence is currently playing out. As noted the last Negative Divergence in 2018 took 8 months to complete. This would be Aug/Sept 2023 as a possible mid-term top under the current scenario after which we could expect a >10% pullback. It is important to recognise that the timeframes I am projecting and the price action are patterns that may play out as we find ourselves in similar but not identical circumstances. It is important that we recognise that this pattern may not play out at all. A few things are certain though, Global Net Liquidity is contracting, volatility is expected as a result and the rest is looking into the past for similar patterns to help anticipate potential structures as they evolve. One such pattern which seems plausible is the megaphone, however the S&P500 could be forming a parallel channel here or a different pattern altogether. Time will tell. If all I have done in the above chart is created awareness of GNL and of the current short term negative divergence, I think that is enough. The rest is just possible outcomes with absolutely no guarantees. I also hope that by reviewing the Great Inflationary Periods price action fractal that it can help frame in our minds just how much price volatility could be ahead of us. On a recent chart I shared which focused on the Yield Curve Inversion the maximum timeframe for a recession to commence once the yield curve first turns back up towards the 0% level is 22 months. The first definitive turn up was in March 2023 suggesting that the maximum window before a recession could potentially start is 22 months from March 2023 which is January 2025. Never has a recession taken longer than that 22 months to occur after the yield curve makes its first turn back up towards the 0% level. For this reason I have included January 2025 as the potential megaphone top. This also coincides with the megaphone fractal pattern from the Great Inflation Period. I am not saying that this is exactly how it will play out but there is some confluence in the timeframes. I hope you find these charts and their correlations helpful. It will be fascinating to see how these eventually play out. PUKA
SP:SPX
by PukaCharts
Bing short on SPX.SPX along with other markets have been in a massive uptrend from past several weeks. But we are about to see a potential change in trend. On the chart you can see I have a pitchfork from the bottom, which has helped me a lot during this entire up trend, its levels have been respected very well. But now we are about to hit the top of the pitchfork very soon, this calls for either a good rejection or a change of trend. Along with the pitchfork we have a weekly harmonic pattern and SPX is hitting its prz. I have indicated the entry and Stop loss. What I am watching is a weekly close either below the white line which will make a bearish engulfing week for SPX or even better a weekly close below the yellow line which result in change of trend. Along with the pitchfork and the harmonic we also been in a trend of a green week followed by a red week from past 5 weeks, and I am expecting next week to be a red week.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by zakoraio
2
S&P 500: Winter Is Here But Spring Is ComingDear friends. 2022 was a tough year for the market with the Fed putting a hold to the tremendous inflow of capital on the markets and reversing its damage after being confronted by record inflation. The Fed did a good job by acting fast and decisive (something other central banks did not or could not do) it resulted in a USD bull market and a bear market for risk on assets. Now, we are in a different ball game, the DXY has topped, CPI is coming down and massive lay offs are announced by multiple public traded corporations across the globe. This will cool down the labour market and will further bring down CPI - yet, it will lag, thus expect the jobless claims to rise in 2023. The last big factor is that oil is coming down, due to less demand and the China lockdowns are a helping hand as well - yet, we need to keep a close on how the Russian oil sanctions will influence the oil price (see my latest analysis). If we look at the SPX, we see we have finished our 5th impulse wave down and set in a bullish divergence on the Money Flow Index (MFI) with a lower low in price and a higher low on the MFI. Furthermore, most of the sellers have jumped ship as seen in the lower volumes traded. Yet again, I want point out that this is a retail chart, institutions don't use OANDA - sorry OANDA. Thus, we see little volume at the lows but I bet the big players and especially market makers and LP's have been sweeping the lows. The overall sentiment is mega bearish and put to call ratio has hit levels not seen since the early 2000's, it was around 1.40 yesterday. With the end of the year in sight and a huge options expiration, I don't think options dealers plan on bringing their traders a happy Christmas time. Max pain is up and a very bullish sign would be if we can set a higher high by spring. Tradingview will likely explode with bullish by then, but they'll be too late. For crypto I expect a similar pathway. Bitcoin put options have been popular these last months and max pain for the end of the year is currently sitting around 19-20K. Crypto will need more time to get out of trouble especially with the chaos that is currently unfolding - yet again, I flipped net long since the last drop towards 15K with the majority of my capital invested in fundamentally strong alts. If you like to know which alts, please refer to the links below. Bring on the FUD and the market will bring the pain. Have a good weekend.
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by cryptobullethbtcxlm
17
SPX500 to continue its upward trend?? (This is just what I think is going to happen. My analysis is not to be taken as fact, and I cannot predict the future for real.) So, I'm looking at the hourly chart here, but most of my analysis has been from the DAILY chart. I see current price is at $4,381.90, the highest it's been since the beginning of the year. Here we are at the halfway point, and SPX500, from what I see, is making nice gains. Price gone only gone up as far as $4,449.81 so far in the year (that happened on June 16th, 2023) but I think price will go up as far as $4,538.51 or further, by July 31st. I only say this because of the technical analysis I've done, looking at candlestick patterns and the candlesticks themselves. From the research I've gathered, I see that at the beginning of the year, price was at $3,801.93. SPX500 stock has since dropped back down, to its lowest point of the year at $3,811.89, only $9.96 away from where price began in January 2023. I also see major S/R zones around $4,110-ish through $4,190-ish. Last time SPX500 made a big move from that S/R zone was when on June 21st, 2021 when price made a bullish rejection using the bullish-engulfing candlestick pattern. Price skyrocketed as high as $4,820-ish, the highest SPX500 has ever been. Well, getting back on track, price rejected new support $4190-ish at the beginning of this month and it doesn't look to be slowing down. Maybe I'm wrong, maybe I'm right. Tell me what you see in the comments, or share your thoughts about what I saw. Feedback is appreciated :) xo, Mani
SP:SPXLong
by Mani_Trades
1
SPX 500 Analysis(Rising Wedge Pattern)!SPX 500 Analysis on Weekly Timeframe! Rising Wedge Pattern in SPX500 Rising Wedge Pattern Formation after a Strong Downtrend SPX500 was in downtrend before now we are seeing a temporary uptrend but if we observe carefully it is an unstructured uptrend, for trend reversal it has to break 4323.56 level. Now SPX500 has formed a Rising Wedge Pattern. This pattern formation happened after a long down move. Now SPX500 is taking a pause and trading inside a wedge. If SPX500 able to break Support Trendline then the Primary trend will continue which is a Downtrend. I have done all important Analysis on the chart. I hope this will help you to forecast the further direction of SPX500.
SP:SPX
by Avinash9087
SPX medium term pathwayThis update will be quick, Im very lazy this weekend. ES short term was already posted earlier today. There are 2 pathways Im following: 1 - H&S pattern, visible on the chart. That pattern if triggered will make full 5 down into early next year low to finish the whole move down from Jan high. (Fits perfectly with VIX sky rocket from its below 20 level) 2 - Finishing the C wave up with A being over and B about to start. Im still looking for 3750 level being hit to close the gap and one more rally over 4200 from there. This scenario should play out quick or I will take it off the list if B is not reached by mid Dec. Then a good rally into Jan high above 4200, check the number of the C ending on the chart. Fibs align perfectly with this pathway! We have a full Moon on Dec 8th, usually markets tend to make a high or a low at or around the full Moon. It seems we are going to get one here early next week. My best pathway is down to 4k tomorrow and rally from there into Tuesday high. There is a huge SPY put wall at 400 for tomorrow, Im sure it will hold on any test tomorrow, so if tested it will be a perfect long entry with a 15-20 points stop. Or if 4k is broken then we should see 3940-50SPX zone tested which is the strongest support for the whole bull move here, should hold on at least 2 tests imo. Also VP (volume Profile) line is around 3960SPX level, a perfect magnet. So my next week game plan is - buy tomorrow low, sell Tuesday high (might stretch to Wed am high), then down we go into a rabbit hole with ideal target at 3745-50SPX. Main bear bull support line is at 3940-50SPX level for the next week! Below it and this move up is over and the price will retrace back to 3750. Have a very profitable week!
SP:SPX
by RealTima
5
SPX Must hold 3970 tomorrow am or its goneAs you can see there is a lot of confluence at 3970 level (This chart become quite busy with the trendlines) If we do gap down tomorrow below 3970, I will be looking to buy 3928-39SPX level for a broken trendline test, if not more. This chart is similar to the ES, but has a higher level of support, so they have a bit different short term look one from another to my eyes, but the main picture is the same. I really dont have much of a support if 3890-3910.50 is gone till 3744SPX! So it better hold that level and ideally the 3928-39SPX support box. Same as the ES, SPX has its trading cycles bearish now, expect short the rips all the way till the 19th of Dec! Have a good night
SP:SPX
by RealTima
2
Is there stock market drop based on around SPX possible? As we have all seen, the stock market has been on a steady rise for some time now, but I fear that we may be on the brink of a significant drop. There are several reasons for my concern. While governments and central banks have taken measures to mitigate the effects of this past pandemic disruption, the long-term impact on the economy is still uncertain. Secondly, we are seeing signs of overvaluation in many sectors of the market. Companies that are not yet profitable are seeing their stock prices soar, and the valuations of some of the largest tech companies are reaching levels that are difficult to justify. Finally, we are seeing a significant increase in market volatility, with large swings in both directions becoming more common. This volatility is a clear sign that investors are becoming increasingly uncertain about the future of the market. Given these factors, I believe it is important for traders to be wary of the current stock market rally. While it is always difficult to predict the future, I believe that the risks of a significant market drop are high. As such, I encourage you to be cautious in your trading decisions and to consider taking steps to protect your investments. This could include diversifying your portfolio, investing in defensive sectors, or even reducing your exposure to the market altogether. In conclusion, I urge you to take these warnings seriously and to be prepared for the possibility of a significant market drop. While I hope my concerns are unfounded, I believe it is better to be safe than sorry.
CBOE:SPX
by bryandowningqln
4
S&P index is Breaking through Strong Pressure !S&P index is Breaking through Strong Pressure ! This chart shows the line chart chart of the S&P index since mid August 2021. The graph overlays the line between the high and high points at the top of the S&P index, the line between recent low and low points, and the horizontal line at key positions at the current stage. As shown in the figure, the S&P index is currently showing an accelerated upward trend with an angle greater than 45 degrees. S&P index has reached a bearish starting point of 4274 before the recent bottom, and is about to challenge the neckline of 4350 at the top of the head and shoulders! In the future, we should focus on the rising speed and slope of the S&P index to determine the size of the upper space!
SP:SPX
by Think_More