SPX quick weekend updateIm on the road all day today, my connection flight is being delayed over 4hrs now.
Had no time do a research, so can be wrong or can be right:)
First of all Fri low came exactly on CPI gap open! I did tweet about it on Fri that I expected that number to be at least good for a bounce. It just stopped there.
Closing above afternoon highs is usually a bullish sign going into Monday.
But making new lows on Fri means that more weakens to come next week, which I do expect to happen with a low to come on the 22nd.
21st is a winter solstice, can mark a low or a high, I expect a low in 3750SPX zone.
My best thinking is that we either make a low to 3808-12SPX tomorrow or just go up from the open to 3950-60SPX high but Tuesday am.
There is also a resistance at 3900-11SPX and 3933SPX.
If we do see 3808SPX tested in am, I will be only long for a Tuesday high, then short for the 22nd low.
Timing is everything in out business, so that would be my plan for tomorrow's trading.
Hope I get home at least not as late.
BTW there will be a big announcement tomorrow, stay tuned!
Have a profitable week!
Spx500analysis
SPX closed at important support lineLook where we closed today, exactly on the support trendline
The CPI gap open is at 3865, opening below tomorrow will flush in am down to 3808.
Holding here can spike up the price for a gap up open.
Thats is why I have no strong conviction on tomorrow's open and direction, like I had on yesterday's close.
So I will leave it for the night monkey's do decide.
Ideally we run up into 2am and sell from there.
Regardless tomorrow will be wild imo
SPX so far so good from yesterday's updateI was sleeping in today after my BD celebration yesterday and what a present I got:) The only issue is I didnt short 2am last night as was looking to do it and tweeted about it!
Good I got some of those lotto puts (tweeted yesterday as well)
We got a gap down I was looking for, hope people are not trapped long since yesterday as I warned so many times as well as tweeted!
Now the question if SPX gets below 3832-31, then it should close at the lows and the next support will be at 3808 (target I was looking for for last several days)
Usually these types of moves are ending up with closing at the lows, so if we get a bounce, I will short it to exit either tomorrow am or AHs
SPX pathway into 19th lowThis is the best I can come up with today. i didnt do much research today.
Want to see a lower low in am and bounce after the Interest rate decision, then the whole move will be faded after Powell starts talking.
Short around 2am, buy am low for the interest rate decision and sell that rip (if we get one) right before Powell starts talking.
Thats my plan for tomorrow
I have a price to short at 4044-47SPX and 4080SPX, those are the levels to watch, especially the second number.
ES resistance is at 4090-99
Its my BD tomorrow, might be less active, but will try to tweet my trades.
Resistance levels are the same
- 4028-34SPX
- 4100-4110SPX
Main support on closing level is 3933SPX.
I still think we should see 3748SPX gap filled this month and 3212SPX early (Q1) next year
Are we in a financial crisis?We are all asking ourselves the same question, are we in the next big financial crash or is the worst already over?
To answer this question, let's look at the S&P 500 since the beginning.
The S&P has only seen one really big/long correction in its history and that was triggered by the Great Recession in the 1930s and the following Second World War.
Since then, the S&P 500 has only seen one strong uptrend.
If we take a closer look at this uptrend since WWII, we can see very clearly the subordinate waves 12345.
1. impulse wave: recovery after WWII and start of globalisation.
2. correction wave: 1970 recession and oil crisis
3. impulse wave: digitalisation and increased globalisation (EU, China, etc.)
4. Correction wave: dot.com bubble and 2008 financial crisis
5. impulse wave: digitalisation and automation of value chains
The two correction waves were each triggered by major negative economic events.
The individual phases are shown in time in the chart below. A certain temporal correlation can be seen. The upward trends lasted approx. 8700 to 9100 days and the downward trends approx. 3300 days.
Current situation
Currently we are in a strong uptrend that has lasted since 2008 and purely in terms of time has lasted only half the time than the two previous uptrends.
But the economic situation is worse than in 2008 and worse than in the 1970s.
Economic situation
- Extremely high energy costs and production costs weigh on businesses and households
- Interest rate hikes put additional strain on the economy
- The higher interest rates are to remain for the time being in the medium term
- Higher costs mean lower profits
- Lower profits and higher capital costs mean less investments
- Unstable housing market in the USA, Europe and China
- Industry and trade under massive pressure
- Stock market still largely overvalued
- China - Taiwan conflict
- Ukraine - Russia conflict
- Unstable society
- Etc.
All these individual events are having a negative impact on the global economy and together form a perfect foundation for a deeper recession. Many negative effects will only become apparent in the coming months, especially in the companies' key figures.
In previous crises, even minor problems have led to crashes.
Therefore, we are preparing for a falling/stagnating economy in the coming months, even years, which will also have a corresponding impact on the financial markets.
In the current economic situation, to assume that the correction is now over and that we are now testing one high after another again can be very dangerous.
We do not assume that the next few months will only be downward. Every overriding downward trend also has its (major) counter-corrections to the upside.
Therefore, we may also experience months of euphoria and months of stagnation.
Moreover, we do not expect such a strong and prolonged correction as in the 1930s, as sentiment was much worse then than now.
The correction course shown in the chart is only symbolic of a correction.
Pessimism - Realism
We do not represent pessimism here, we represent realism.
We want to encourage you to think about this realistically. In the current crisis landscape we are in, can you imagine that the correction is now over and we will test one high after the other and see an all-time high again in a few months? Especially considering the previous crises, what triggered them and how long they lasted.
We no longer ask ourselves whether the crisis will come, but only how long it will last and how it will proceed in order to use the movements profitably.
Price target of the correction?
The previous corrections (1970s) & (2000 + 2008) were each able to form a bottom between the 0.5 and 0.618 FIB level and start the next uptrend from there.
Projecting this onto the current correction, the price target of the correction would be around $2,500, which can also be confirmed very well on the chart with resistances, trendlines and many other indicators.
However, this is still very difficult to judge in the current situation, as it depends on an enormous number of factors, which are not yet meaningful enough, after all, we are only at the beginning of the correction.
We hope that this article was helpful for you and that you may now look at the current situation from a different perspective.
SPX is at support, bounce to be shorted, resistance at 4040Well who would of know about gap and crap?
My yesterday post had it all covered.
The magnitude of a gap up I had no idea about and it came quite strong, but still made a lower higher into that Yellow resistance line
That Yellow line comes from Feb 2020 high, so its a very important resistance.
I have taken several trades on the open, sold calls and bought puts, now my puts are covered and I will re short at or above 4040SPX
My first main target is at 3953SPX so my bear spread would be buy 3955 and sell 3940 all SPX exp 19th of Dec.
I did post screen short for some trades I took, it was a great trade.
I still have bear spreads I bought at the close yesterday, those should get to BE easily if we see my target today.
There is a support at 3984-88SPX, I will go long there for a bounce with a stop
Its setting up for a gap and crap move opposite of Oct 13thThis is my second try, there was an issue with posting, it reset the whole post back to empty.
All what Im thinking is that there is a possibility of the opposite Oct 13th move.
In this case it can be a gap up and crap all the way into the Fed on Wednesday.
I still cant get 3748 gap to get out from my mind and still believe it will get hit this month at minimum.
Ideally we see 3580 and reverse into the EOY.
There is a window for the low on the 15th and the 19th
Resistance is at 4028-34SPX on the closing level. Above 4034 it will go to 4100 and 4019SPX
Support is at 3933SPX, below it it will go to 3800
SPX is in triangle, closing below Fri close will be a huge tellSPX is in triangle, closing below Fri close will be a huge tell going into tomorrow.
I will be watching the option flow at the end of the day.
I did short NQ before the open and covered half after the open, rest got stopped on afternoon spike.
SPX is getting close to its targetNothing has changed, SPX is on the way to its target zone
I wanted a good gap up and crap from there, but we got completely the opposite.
Waiting patiently to enter with short position at 4007-20SPX zone
I havent traded much today, want to short, but this can continue squeezing on low vol
SPX important to hold 3900 level on any test/if any tomorrowIdeal pathway for tomorrow is either gap down or sell after the open to mark new lows in low 3900SPX (3896-3908), then a strong reversal into Fri open
Im watching two levels for tomorrow on the upside:
- 3965-70SPX
- 4000SPX
Holding 4k will be important, as it will be a text book test of the broken down bull trend to confirm that the price has marked the top and it's on the way to make new lows.
I wont be surprised if the price overshoots to 4025-35 and even 4060+ and reverse hard from those levels.
So expect unexpected
Here is a zoomed in chart for tomorrow
Open above today's highs will be bullish. If it does, watch today's high as support.
Maj support tomorrow on closing level is 3933-34SPX, its a bear bull line at this point, closing below we will see mid 38 hundred next!
Resistance mentioned above and maj resistance is 4119-20SPX, closing above will push price to mid 41 hundred and even 4200+
Im not in that camp, but cant rule out mid 4k test as overshoot/stop run move.
Trading cycle is bearish now, all the way into 19-20th low!
Dont want 4120SPX being taken, it will flip to bullish if it does.
My trading pathway for tomorrow is to buy am lows and ride it at least into the close or at least 3960-70SPX
SPX is at support levelNothing much to add since yesterday's updates.
Im looking up for a breakdown trendline test. If its very bearish, then it can just get to 3965-70SPX and stop there.
That would mean much lower levels are coming this month!
Ideal pathway is to test 4k level and reverse down. That would be your shorting opportunity
The whole move off CPI will be erased next!
If it happens before the CPI on the 13th, be ware of a move down to 3400-3500!!!
So be careful if long here! especially if we stop at 3970SPX
SPX hide you kids, hide yo wife?Is this the beginning of a bigger move down? or a dip?
Rejected off of the Larger downward trendline.
Broke down out of the upward trendline.
Broke the proposed wave 4.
At an important level here to keep an eye on. It as flipped back and forth from support to resistance, then willy wonka'd and reversed it from resistance to support.
SO watching 3910 area to see if it holds again. A break under will be watching for a corrective retest, throwback...Wave dependent.
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SPX is at mid range nowSo far so good from last night update.
Just twitted, that Im not looking to short here, but looking for a long to buy! from lower levels.
Unless the prices goes first to 3990-4k level, then I will short it there
I have set a buy order at 3940ES, that would be 3932-34SPX.
And if take I will add near 3900SPX.
Its a full moon on the 8th, ideally we get a lower high by then
Do not over trade this, wait for the right setup to take!
20 Reason buy S&P🔆MULTI-TIME FRAME TOP-DOWN ANALYSIS OVERVIEW☀️
1 ✨Eagle eye: Super BUllish
2 📆Monthly: after a deep correction now, the impulsive move is just started
3 📅Weekly: bear trend/beartrap double bottom/ make lower high
4 🕛Daily: the clear bull trend toward extreme high
😇7 Dimension analysis
🟢 analysis time frame: daily
5: 1 Price Structure: bullish
6: 2 Pattern Candle Chart: flag
7: 3 Volume: high volume
8: 4 Momentum UNCONVENTIONAL Rsi: super bullish
9: 5 Volatility measure Bollinger bands: v
10: 6 Strength ADX: bullish
11: 7 Sentiment ROC: bull
✔️ Entry Time Frame: H4
12: Entry TF Structure: bull
13: entry move: impulsive
14: Support resistance base: cip
15: FIB:
☑️ final comments: buy
16: 💡decision: buy
17: 🚀Entry: 4107
18: ✋Stop losel:4019
19: 🎯Take profit:4198
[S&P 500] short term bullish but mid term bearishTechnical indicators show a high probability of a “dead cat bounce” pattern which is a bullish retracement inside a downtrend.
Indeed, the drop was triggered by a huge bearish MACD divergence and confirmed by a cross between MA50 and MA200, while the recent rise was triggered by a small bullish MACD divergence.
I believe the bullish retracement will end below the 50% FIBO and will be confirmed by the historical resistance of the 50 period disparity index.
SPX500 about to fall? Key-Level-Alert!Hey tradomaniacs,
SPX500 just pumped up towards a major resistance-area where a lot of bearish confluence is possible.
Generally I must say that the recent pump caused by Jerome Powell seems to be SUS as his entire speech was pretty hawkish.
I also think he doesnt really want stocks to move up as it would not ease financial conditions and boost inflation.
However, technically a good spot to watch! Either for shorts or a break to the upside!
What do you think?
SPX what a day! Close above 4075SPXNow the next target is the ideal extension target 4119+- few points
Ideally we get that number tested by the 5th and see 3750 filled EOM
It was a panic cycle day and I did mention about it many times in my posts.
One was done during my last night update together with the explanation.
We got that a move in one direction above previous high or low, it was up the upside.
Also mentioned that it was holding well during the day and huge calls activity.
I did trade lotto SPY 408 Dec 1st calls, bought 20 at 6.5c on average, exited at 57 and most of it at 1.08-1.35, amazing lotto
Also did few NQ calls, was restriking all afternoon taking profits on those in green, still have 2 running for tomorrow's am exit if not tonight
Careful with being long here as the upside is limited and usually the FED day gets reversed by Fri, will it be the same this time, I dont know.
There is a good short setup around 4120SPX level, no need to chase the market at this point if missed the long play today