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US Market Technicals Ahead (14 June – 18 June 2021) The Federal Reserve two-day policy meeting is the main event event for the markets this week, although the central bank is not expected to take any action but maintain an ultra-loose monetary stimulus. All eyes will turn to comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell for clues about the central bank's latest view on inflation. While the outcome of the Fed meeting will take the limelight, investors will also be looking closely at economic data on U.S. retail sales and producer prices for an update on the strength of the economic recovery. Here is what you need to know to start your week. S&P500 (US Market) $SPX rose +0.41% (+17.4 points) for its third straight positive week, closing at a all time high level of 4,250. Investors are giving growth stocks another chance as bond yields come down. The 10-year Treasury went below 1.43% on Friday, a three-month low. Stock markets are likely to tread water, with investors reluctant to take new positions ahead of Wednesday’s Fed statement which will be scrutinized for clues regarding its timetable for raising interest rates. $SPX continues to reflect a minor bearish divergence as highlighted last week. The immediate support to watch for $SPX is now at 4,165, a breakdown of its classical support, along with 20D and 50D major moving averages. Fed meeting Investors will be zeroing in on the Fed's statement at the conclusion of its two-day policy meeting on Wednesday against a background of persistent concerns over whether inflation spikes could pressure the central bank to start tapering its stimulus sooner than expected. The Fed has repeatedly said that near-term price spikes will not translate into lasting inflation and Chairman Jerome Powell is expected to stick to this stance and reassure markets the Fed’s policy will remain accommodative. While inflation numbers are rising, the recovery in the labor market remain sluggish. The economy added 559,000 jobs last month after gains of just 278,000 in April. That left employment about 7.6 million jobs below its peak in February 2020. Most analysts are not expecting the Fed to begin discussing scaling back its asset purchase program before its annual conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, in late August. Economic data Away from Fed meeting, the U.S. is to release May data on retail sales and producer price inflation on Tuesday. Also out on Tuesday is industrial production data which will be closely watched amid issues over supply constraints and labor market shortages. This could translate into increases in producer price inflation. The economic calendar also features reports on housing starts and initial jobless claims. Data on Thursday showed the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell last week to the lowest level in nearly 15 months as the reopening continues. Meme Stocks Mania Meme stocks could also remain in the headlines after a volatile ride last week. GameStop ($GME) hit a high of $344.66 Tuesday and dropped as low as $206.13 Friday before closing at $233.34 per share. Besides meme stocks, Treasuries could also be in focus after an unexpected slide in yields. There was a major move in the rate of the benchmark 10-year, watched most closely by investors, as it influences mortgages and other important lending rates.
ULong
by jfsrevg
US Market Technicals Ahead (7 June – 11 June 2021)Investors will keep a close eye on Thursday’s U.S. consumer price data amid concerns that rising inflation could prompt the Federal Reserve to begin pulling back on stimulus. The consumer price report for May will probably show the inflation rate rising to 4.6 percent, the highest since September 2008 and well above the Federal Reserve’s target of about 2 percent. Meme stocks look likely to continue to grip investors’ attention after a wild ride last week. Markets will also be monitoring the progress of President Joe Biden’s proposed $1.7 trillion infrastructure plan, which has already boosted the industrials and materials sectors this year, leaving many industrials and materials stocks vulnerable to a selloff if a large spending bill in Washington fails to materialize. Elsewhere, the European Central Bank (ECB) is to meet on Thursday and may discuss tapering stimulus. Here’s what you need to know to start your week. S&P500 (US Market) The benchmark index ($SPX) kicked off the 2nd half of 2021 on a positive note, gaining +0.55% (+23 points) during the week. $SPX remains less than a percentage point away from recapturing its all time high level of 4,245 level. The past two weeks of low market volatility have seen $SPX trading in a range less than 36 points, the lowest since April 2021. In the meanwhile, $SPX continues to reflect a minor bearish divergence within its falling price volatility along with daily trading volume on its up-days as highlighted since last week. The immediate support to watch for $SPX is now at 4,150, a breakdown to the lowest price level traded over the past two weeks. Inflation threat All eyes will be on the latest CPI data on Thursday, after a much stronger than expected inflation number sparked a selloff last month, as many worried rising price pressures could force the Fed to begin unwinding stimulus soon. Friday’s jobs report indicated that while jobs growth picked up from the previous month wage growth also accelerated. This could bolster the argument that higher inflation may persist rather than being transitory, as is currently viewed by the Fed. The inflation reading is one of the last major pieces of economic data ahead of the next Fed meeting on June 15-16 and Fed officials will be in their traditional blackout period during the coming week ahead of that meeting. The economic calendar also features Thursday’s figures on initial jobless claims, which fell below 400,000 in last week’s release for the first time since the start of the pandemic. Meme stock frenzy The wild ride for meme stocks looks set to continue, after AMC ($AMC) shares ended last week with gains of more than 80% despite falling more than 6% on Friday. AMC has been at the center of a fresh wave of buying by retail investors who hyped the stock in forums such as Reddit’s WallStreetBets, breathing new life into a phenomenon that began with January’s more than 1,600% gain in GameStop ($GME). AMC, which was on the brink of bankruptcy not long ago, on Thursday completed its second share offering in three days, cashing in on a nearly 400% surge in its share price since mid-May. But most analysts say that the scale of the rally is out of line with AMC’s fundamentals and high valuations on the meme stock names are unlikely to last. There are no actively managed stock funds among AMC’S 20 largest shareholders, according to Refinitiv data, leaving open the risk that a shift in retail investor opinion could quickly sink its shares. Infrastructure deal Market participants will be closely following negotiations between Democrats and Republicans in Washington over President Joe Biden’s proposed $1.7 trillion infrastructure deal. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg had said the White House sees Monday – when Congress returns from a one-week break – as a critical date to see progress in talks. Expectations of government spending on infrastructure have already boosted value stocks this year, particularly the industrials and materials sectors, which have both gained around 20% since the start of the year, against a 12.5% gain for the S&P 500. Those large gains may leave many industrials and materials stocks vulnerable to a selloff if a large spending bill in Washington fails to materialize. ECB dilemma The ECB meets on Thursday and will release its updated growth forecasts for 2021 and 2022. Policymakers will debate whether to prolong their support for the euro zone recovery through emergency stimulus, a decision that will hinge on how strong they believe the region’s economic recovery is. Recent dovish comments by several ECB policymakers have highlighted the risks of premature tightening. Any indication from ECB head Christine Lagarde that the debate on tapering is getting underway could push euro zone bond yields still higher and undermine the economic recovery in the bloc.
ULong
by jfsrevg
US Market Technicals Ahead (8 Feb – 12 Feb 2021)All three US major averages finished the week in the green, with each posting its best week since November 2020 as fears of the short-squeeze in a handful of stocks leading to broader market contagion subsided. Investors will be focusing on earnings and the prospects for a hefty new coronavirus relief package in the week ahead. Markets will also be watching the latest consumer price inflation numbers on Wednesday amid expectations for an uptick as the economic backdrop improves and the vaccine roll-out gains momentum. Here’s what you need to know to start your week. S&P500 (US Market) The benchmark index ($SPX) kicks off the month of Feburary with a weekly gain of +5.03%, the best week of the index since November 2020. This rally not only fully recovered the correction from the initial week, but it also established a new all time high for $SPX at 3,895 level. Additionally, $SPX is now back above its 20DMA, along with the consolidated Trend Channel highlighted last week. At the current junction, the week’s rally of $SPX have exhibited a Bearish Divergence pattern; as the daily rally of $SPX is accompanied with a volume exhaustion. The first signs of weakness in this rally will require a re-test of all-time high resistance turned support at 3,870. 1. Earnings Better-than-expected corporate results so far in the fourth quarter have driven up analysts’ expectations, and S&P 500 ($SPX) companies are on track to post earnings growth for the period instead of a decline as initially expected. Upcoming U.S. reports in the week ahead include Cisco Systems ($CSCO), Twitter ($TWTR), General Motors ($GM), Pepsi ($PEP), Coca-Cola ($KO), AstraZeneca ($AZN) and Walt Disney ($DIS). Upbeat earnings along with stimulus talks and progress on the vaccine rollout boosted equities last week, with the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq recording their largest weekly percentage gains since the U.S. elections in early November. Upbeat fourth-quarter results would bolster expectations for a strong rebound in earnings in 2021 and help to ease investor worries that valuations are overstretched. 2. Stimulus U.S. President Joe Biden’s push for his $1.9 trillion COVID-19 relief package gained momentum on Friday after the U.S. Senate narrowly approved a budget blueprint allowing Democrats to push the legislation through Congress in coming weeks with or without Republican support. Republicans have proposed a $600 billion aid package, less than a third the size of the Democratic plan. Congressional committees are set to start drawing up legislation this week and Speaker Nancy Pelosi has predicted the final legislation could pass Congress before March 15, when special unemployment benefits that were added during the pandemic expire. Data on Friday showing a smaller-than-expected rebound in the U.S. labor market in January underscored the need for more stimulus to bolster the economy. 3. Inflation data Market watchers will be paying close attention to Wednesday’s CPI data amid growing expectations that an uptick in inflation could be larger and longer lasting than the Federal Reserve is currently anticipating. U.S. Treasury investors are betting on rising inflation as the U.S. economy returns to more normal levels in the second half of this year, after contracting at its deepest pace since World War Two in 2020. The prospect of a new coronavirus relief package is adding to inflation expectations. Meanwhile, Fed Chair Jerome Powell is to speak about the labor market on Wednesday at a webinar hosted by the Economic Club of New York. Thursday’s figures on initial jobless claims will also be in focus.
UShort
by jfsrevg
1
SPX500 Within a Channel - 2 Possible LongsSPX500 Long Setup Idea Entry Levels: 1) $3,785.7 2) $3,764.8 TP & RR: $3,870.7 (4.89 and 5.71) Stop Loss Levels: 1) $3,768.3 2) $3,746.1 REASONS FOR THE TRADE SPX500 may be due for a small correction and I want to catch the indicated level, which is a flip from resistance to support. I believe it should hold well, but what I am really looking for is a quick, clean wick to the entry or worst-case scenario a close and then a quick trend up. If the price closes under that level, then the trade will be invalidated and I will be looking to open the second long order with an even better Risk : Reward. I will also be looking at the Trend Volume RSI Analysis and what it prints in terms of trend and divergences.
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by Quant_
S&P 500 INDEX (SPX) MonthlyDates in the future with the greatest probability for a price high or price low. The Djinn Predictive Indicators are simple mathematical equations. Once an equation is given to Siri the algorithm provides the future price swing date. Djinn Indicators work on all charts, for any asset category and in all time frames. Occasionally a Djinn Predictive Indicator will miss its prediction date by one candlestick. If multiple Djinn prediction dates are missed and are plowed through by same color Henikin Ashi candles the asset is being "reset". The "reset" is complete when Henikin Ashi candles are back in sync with Djinn price high or low prediction dates. One way the Djinn Indicator is used to enter and exit trades: For best results trade in the direction of the trend. The Linear Regression channel is used to determine trend direction. The Linear Regression is set at 2 -2 30. When a green Henikin Ashi candle intersects with the linear regression upper deviation line (green line) and both indicators intersect with a Djinn prediction date a sell is triggered. When a red Henikin Ashi candle intersects with the linear regression lower deviation line (red line) and both indicators intersect with a Djinn prediction date a buy is triggered. This trading strategy works on daily, weekly and Monthly Djinn Predictive charts. This is not trading advice. Trade at your own risk.
SP:SPX
by Dinjin