Get started

Spx500forecast

SPX quick weekend updateIm on the road all day today, my connection flight is being delayed over 4hrs now. Had no time do a research, so can be wrong or can be right:) First of all Fri low came exactly on CPI gap open! I did tweet about it on Fri that I expected that number to be at least good for a bounce. It just stopped there. Closing above afternoon highs is usually a bullish sign going into Monday. But making new lows on Fri means that more weakens to come next week, which I do expect to happen with a low to come on the 22nd. 21st is a winter solstice, can mark a low or a high, I expect a low in 3750SPX zone. My best thinking is that we either make a low to 3808-12SPX tomorrow or just go up from the open to 3950-60SPX high but Tuesday am. There is also a resistance at 3900-11SPX and 3933SPX. If we do see 3808SPX tested in am, I will be only long for a Tuesday high, then short for the 22nd low. Timing is everything in out business, so that would be my plan for tomorrow's trading. Hope I get home at least not as late. BTW there will be a big announcement tomorrow, stay tuned! Have a profitable week!
SP:SPX
by RealTima
2
40 Bar Cycle Chart - S&P 500 SPY SPX ES1! - Updated 121722This last week, markets initially rallied on the release of the "cooler" than expected November CPI (Consumer Price Index) — only to be smacked back to reality on the comments via Federal Reserve Chairman J. Powell during the December Interest Rate Decision (FOMC) meeting this last Wednesday as "higher for longer" is the communicated pathway forward for the FED and financial markets. Whether this is all talk to put some intentional downward pressure on markets, as financial conditions have eased as of late — or this is the actual pathway forward and the bond markets are mis-pricing the projected Terminal FFR (Fed Funds Rate, now >5% into 23'), some indicators such as our (40-Bar Cycle Chart) 📉 are highlighting what is likely another leg down in financial assets as QT ramps up and higher interest rates take their toll on real economic activity. Keep in mind that behind the scenes, the FED in coordination with the U.S. Treasury are working their magic 🧙🏼‍♂️🔮 in terms of FED Net Liquidity to keep things "(dis)orderly". Here is the updated 40-Bar Cycle Chart for SPY ES1! SPX, which seems to be sitting on some major support. Given the structure of the markets after losing the $390 SPY / $3,900 ES1! SPX, along with J. Powell and other FED speaker comments post-FOMC on Friday, is the hopes for a year-end 🎅 🎄 rally wishful thinking? SPY Daily Chart Template www.tradingview.com Which camp are you in on the short-term (end of year into Q1/23') direction of markets? Camp A: We are likely we headed for new lows in Q1/23 (Fluctuating Inflation + Persistent Price/Wage Pressures + Hawkish FED). Camp B: We are likely to break the downtrend into the start of Q1/23' (Peak Inflation + Deflationary Forces + Dovish FED). Let me know your prediction in the comments below! 👇🏼
AMEX:SPYShort
by kylemusserco
S&P 500 Analysis and Trade IdeaInteresting. Loads of news coming! CPI, FOMC, and interest rate decisions for CHF, GBP and EUR. I will wait until I see how the CPI data turns out before jumping in this market for trades.. especially for any buys. I do, however, see that *support * differently... as I am tentatively bearish in this market. D1: 1 - A bearish break of of Swing structure. Confirms the market is bearish until the high is taken out. 2 - The return to the impulsing order block. This is the expected pullback correction after a BOS. This D1 supply zone was in the premium of the trading range, imbalanced and unmitigated, and price reacted to it perfectly (see last weeks Sunday livestream). It also broke the daily uptrend line. 3* - This is no doubt going to look to some as price finding support for a move up. But it is sell side liquidity, looking thru the lens of SMC. I expect those lows to be swept, as there are SLs there for the traders that took longs from those levels. 4 - This is a well placed imbalance/fair value gap that looks to be filled ... potentially... as price moves to mitigate the demand zone that formed that gap. 5 - This demand zone has potential to hold price once mitigated. So any shorts taken from up higher into it should TP in this area, imo. Personally, I will be looking for confirmations to take a long from here. We'll see how price reacts to this poi firs, though. If you like this analysis and would like to see more, give this post a BOOST with thumbs up! Like & Subscribe is the best thank you in the world! Trade safely.
OANDA:SPX500USD
by RT_Money
1
SPX so far so good from yesterday's updateI was sleeping in today after my BD celebration yesterday and what a present I got:) The only issue is I didnt short 2am last night as was looking to do it and tweeted about it! Good I got some of those lotto puts (tweeted yesterday as well) We got a gap down I was looking for, hope people are not trapped long since yesterday as I warned so many times as well as tweeted! Now the question if SPX gets below 3832-31, then it should close at the lows and the next support will be at 3808 (target I was looking for for last several days) Usually these types of moves are ending up with closing at the lows, so if we get a bounce, I will short it to exit either tomorrow am or AHs
SP:SPX
by RealTima
9
SPX pathway into 19th lowThis is the best I can come up with today. i didnt do much research today. Want to see a lower low in am and bounce after the Interest rate decision, then the whole move will be faded after Powell starts talking. Short around 2am, buy am low for the interest rate decision and sell that rip (if we get one) right before Powell starts talking. Thats my plan for tomorrow I have a price to short at 4044-47SPX and 4080SPX, those are the levels to watch, especially the second number. ES resistance is at 4090-99 Its my BD tomorrow, might be less active, but will try to tweet my trades. Resistance levels are the same - 4028-34SPX - 4100-4110SPX Main support on closing level is 3933SPX. I still think we should see 3748SPX gap filled this month and 3212SPX early (Q1) next year
SP:SPX
by RealTima
20
Are we in a financial crisis?We are all asking ourselves the same question, are we in the next big financial crash or is the worst already over? To answer this question, let's look at the S&P 500 since the beginning. The S&P has only seen one really big/long correction in its history and that was triggered by the Great Recession in the 1930s and the following Second World War. Since then, the S&P 500 has only seen one strong uptrend. If we take a closer look at this uptrend since WWII, we can see very clearly the subordinate waves 12345. 1. impulse wave: recovery after WWII and start of globalisation. 2. correction wave: 1970 recession and oil crisis 3. impulse wave: digitalisation and increased globalisation (EU, China, etc.) 4. Correction wave: dot.com bubble and 2008 financial crisis 5. impulse wave: digitalisation and automation of value chains The two correction waves were each triggered by major negative economic events. The individual phases are shown in time in the chart below. A certain temporal correlation can be seen. The upward trends lasted approx. 8700 to 9100 days and the downward trends approx. 3300 days. Current situation Currently we are in a strong uptrend that has lasted since 2008 and purely in terms of time has lasted only half the time than the two previous uptrends. But the economic situation is worse than in 2008 and worse than in the 1970s. Economic situation - Extremely high energy costs and production costs weigh on businesses and households - Interest rate hikes put additional strain on the economy - The higher interest rates are to remain for the time being in the medium term - Higher costs mean lower profits - Lower profits and higher capital costs mean less investments - Unstable housing market in the USA, Europe and China - Industry and trade under massive pressure - Stock market still largely overvalued - China - Taiwan conflict - Ukraine - Russia conflict - Unstable society - Etc. All these individual events are having a negative impact on the global economy and together form a perfect foundation for a deeper recession. Many negative effects will only become apparent in the coming months, especially in the companies' key figures. In previous crises, even minor problems have led to crashes. Therefore, we are preparing for a falling/stagnating economy in the coming months, even years, which will also have a corresponding impact on the financial markets. In the current economic situation, to assume that the correction is now over and that we are now testing one high after another again can be very dangerous. We do not assume that the next few months will only be downward. Every overriding downward trend also has its (major) counter-corrections to the upside. Therefore, we may also experience months of euphoria and months of stagnation. Moreover, we do not expect such a strong and prolonged correction as in the 1930s, as sentiment was much worse then than now. The correction course shown in the chart is only symbolic of a correction. Pessimism - Realism We do not represent pessimism here, we represent realism. We want to encourage you to think about this realistically. In the current crisis landscape we are in, can you imagine that the correction is now over and we will test one high after the other and see an all-time high again in a few months? Especially considering the previous crises, what triggered them and how long they lasted. We no longer ask ourselves whether the crisis will come, but only how long it will last and how it will proceed in order to use the movements profitably. Price target of the correction? The previous corrections (1970s) & (2000 + 2008) were each able to form a bottom between the 0.5 and 0.618 FIB level and start the next uptrend from there. Projecting this onto the current correction, the price target of the correction would be around $2,500, which can also be confirmed very well on the chart with resistances, trendlines and many other indicators. However, this is still very difficult to judge in the current situation, as it depends on an enormous number of factors, which are not yet meaningful enough, after all, we are only at the beginning of the correction. We hope that this article was helpful for you and that you may now look at the current situation from a different perspective.
SP:SPX
by Consyder
4
SPX is at support, bounce to be shorted, resistance at 4040Well who would of know about gap and crap? My yesterday post had it all covered. The magnitude of a gap up I had no idea about and it came quite strong, but still made a lower higher into that Yellow resistance line That Yellow line comes from Feb 2020 high, so its a very important resistance. I have taken several trades on the open, sold calls and bought puts, now my puts are covered and I will re short at or above 4040SPX My first main target is at 3953SPX so my bear spread would be buy 3955 and sell 3940 all SPX exp 19th of Dec. I did post screen short for some trades I took, it was a great trade. I still have bear spreads I bought at the close yesterday, those should get to BE easily if we see my target today. There is a support at 3984-88SPX, I will go long there for a bounce with a stop
SP:SPX
by RealTima
10
S&P 500: Shooting star + bearish divergence RSIThe trading session on December 13 was full of important technical signals for the S&P 500 index ( US500 ). After the release of a lower-than-expected US CPI in November (7.1% vs. 7.3% expected and down from 7.7% in October), the SPX surged to 4,137 points; however, the price action reversed sharply following sellers' profit-taking on the good news and in anticipation of the significant risk posed by tomorrow's FOMC meeting. The Fed might save hawkish surprises that are not currently priced in by the market, which has factored in a terminal rate of 4.8% in May 2023 and more than 50 basis points of cuts in the second quarter of the year. Technically speaking, we are seeing key signs that can indicate that the bear market rebound has peaked here and lacks the conviction to continue further gains. A shooting-star candlestick has formed on the daily chart, which might imply that the short-term trend is about to reverse. A bearish divergence RSI signal, further supports the November bull trend reversal theory, as the oscillator failed to update new highs when prices did.  Additionally, the S&P 500's positive price action was unable to surpass the critical 50% Fibonacci retracement of the 2022 low to high, indicating that the major bearish trend is still in place. Hawkish shocks from tomorrow's FOMC meeting might cause the SPX to retest support at 3,900 points, with the 50-day moving average (3,860) functioning as the next target.
CAPITALCOM:US500
by Capitalcom
Its setting up for a gap and crap move opposite of Oct 13thThis is my second try, there was an issue with posting, it reset the whole post back to empty. All what Im thinking is that there is a possibility of the opposite Oct 13th move. In this case it can be a gap up and crap all the way into the Fed on Wednesday. I still cant get 3748 gap to get out from my mind and still believe it will get hit this month at minimum. Ideally we see 3580 and reverse into the EOY. There is a window for the low on the 15th and the 19th Resistance is at 4028-34SPX on the closing level. Above 4034 it will go to 4100 and 4019SPX Support is at 3933SPX, below it it will go to 3800
SP:SPX
by RealTima
13
SPX weekend updateThis will be my weekend update. Im flying out tonight for my birthday week, will be in transit into second part of Sunday, if will have time, I will update more charts from the airport. For those who know me from the site I was on for 10 years, I will be seeing Tracey on this vacation trip, so very exited to finally meet her in person We trade every day and Im very exited to trade with her in person. So stay tuned for Twitter life updates. Ok lets get back to the report: I had no chance to check the numbers on Friday, but SPX closed right at my maj support level 3933 (close was at 3934 and futs dived down lower). - So its either a gap up or gap down scenario for Monday! - Resistance is at 4028-34 (Maj resistance) - Maj Support is at 3933 and if lost (gaped down on Monday) then 3850 and 3808SPX (next Maj support) becomes the next target A close below 3808 makes the ideal target next - 3744-48 As noted on Thursday update, if we wont take 3970 it will be very bearish, the high was at 3977 on Friday and you know where it closed! So that call was successfully fulfilled. As noted (grey trendlines above Fri highs) on the chart, you can see that the price rejected some broken trendlines from the bottom, its negative. Close below Thursday low and at the daily lows is negative by itself and usually ends up with continuation on Monday. This is a 1h chart, look at RSI and MACD, both look terrible and not even close to be oversold! Another negative signal Fibs targeting right into 3795-3814SPX zone, inline with my next Maj Support level on closing level - 3808SPX Europe close was at the highs, so they are trapped, big! Another negative signal VIX closed above its mid daily Bollinger for 3rd day straight, positive for VIX negative signal for the markets. Will we get a gap down and a crash like move down on Monday I dont know, but the setup is there. On the other hand if we open at low 3900 (max down to 3889-95 is allowed) and start reversing, it can be a very strong rally day! So its all up to 3900 level on Monday open, ideally we just gap down below it and dont even look back (can just re-test 3908SPX max). then I can make a case of just riding the wave all the way down to 3800 all in one day! CPI is on Tuesday, that would be super interesting, as IF, again Big IF there is at 5% down day on Monday and we close near 3748 gap close, then it can be another great lotto call for another Tuesday big a$$ red open like we had on the Oct 13th. Which will be bought for at least a good size bounce going into the Fed Interest rate decision. Which (Fed day) I think will make the price spike up and then reverse hard. If that happens, then we should see 3580 or low 3600 by Dec 19th. From Dec 19th low, it will be only a long play for me going into early if not mid Jan. This is my pathway going into the next week and EOY. Next week its def can be the craziest week this year! Well and I have a birthday coming up next week as well:) Here is a poll to take, it closes on Sunday midnight, feel free to share with anyone at any site you are on. Lets get a clear picture of the sentiment out there: strawpoll.com So far 40 already made their bets Have a great weekend and do as much research as possible for the next week, as who ever gets trapped, it will be very painful! Please note I can be totally wrong with my prediction, but I have to trade my own homework. If the wind changed to a different direction, I will quickly update my view on the current market situation. Tima
SP:SPXShort
by RealTima
38
SPX important to hold 3900 level on any test/if any tomorrowIdeal pathway for tomorrow is either gap down or sell after the open to mark new lows in low 3900SPX (3896-3908), then a strong reversal into Fri open Im watching two levels for tomorrow on the upside: - 3965-70SPX - 4000SPX Holding 4k will be important, as it will be a text book test of the broken down bull trend to confirm that the price has marked the top and it's on the way to make new lows. I wont be surprised if the price overshoots to 4025-35 and even 4060+ and reverse hard from those levels. So expect unexpected Here is a zoomed in chart for tomorrow Open above today's highs will be bullish. If it does, watch today's high as support. Maj support tomorrow on closing level is 3933-34SPX, its a bear bull line at this point, closing below we will see mid 38 hundred next! Resistance mentioned above and maj resistance is 4119-20SPX, closing above will push price to mid 41 hundred and even 4200+ Im not in that camp, but cant rule out mid 4k test as overshoot/stop run move. Trading cycle is bearish now, all the way into 19-20th low! Dont want 4120SPX being taken, it will flip to bullish if it does. My trading pathway for tomorrow is to buy am lows and ride it at least into the close or at least 3960-70SPX
SP:SPX
by RealTima
2
SPX is at support levelNothing much to add since yesterday's updates. Im looking up for a breakdown trendline test. If its very bearish, then it can just get to 3965-70SPX and stop there. That would mean much lower levels are coming this month! Ideal pathway is to test 4k level and reverse down. That would be your shorting opportunity The whole move off CPI will be erased next! If it happens before the CPI on the 13th, be ware of a move down to 3400-3500!!! So be careful if long here! especially if we stop at 3970SPX
SP:SPX
by RealTima
SP500 Weekly Volatility Analysis 5-9 Dec 2022 SP500 Weekly Volatility Analysis 5-9 Dec 2022 We can see that currently the implied volatility for this week is around 2.64%, down from 2.82% last week according to VIX data With this in mind, currently from ATR point of view we are located in the 56th percentile, while according to VIX, we are on 25th percentile. Based on this, we can expect that the current weekly candles ( from open to close ) are going to between: Bullish: 2.87% movement Bearish: 2.55% movement At the same time, with this data, we can make a top/bot channel which is going to contain inside the movement of this asset, meaning that there is a 24.3% that our close of the weekly candle of this asset is going to be either above/below the next channel: TOP: 4188 BOT: 3960 Taking into consideration the previous weekly high/low, currently for this candle there is : 78% probability we are going to touch previous high of 4110 26% probability we are going to touch previous low of 3942 Lastly, from the technical analysis point of view, currently from Weekly timeframe indicates 53% bullish trend Daily timeframe indicates 80% bullish trend 4H timeframe indicates 53.3% bullish trend
CME_MINI:ES1!
by exlux
S&P 500 Big Picture - Bearish ScenarioMany investors are already assuming a breakout from the upper trend line and thus a continuation of the uptrend. The economic sentiment is still bearish, many companies now have to bear the high capital and energy costs and many companies are still highly overvalued. Therefore, today we would like to introduce you to a bearish scenario that is likely to occur, the Double ZigZag. Structure of a Double ZigZag - Superior: (W) - (X) - (Y) - Subordinate: (ABC) - (ABC) - (ABC) - Subwaves: (12345 - ABC - 12345) - (ABC) - (12345 - ABC - 12345) Current situation If this scenario is correct, we would be in the last sub-wave ABC and now see the last downward movement as sub-wave 12345. This would complete the last subordinate (ABC) wave. This scenario would be confirmed if in the next few days/weeks the SPX initiates a trend reversal to the downside. We already see a weaker SPX struggling to pump above the yellow highlighted resistance. Even if we could make it above this, it would have to be retested first and thus hold above resistance. We now expect the SPX to either make another small breakout to the upside before correcting back down, or for the SPX to correct right away. Strongly changing market The market is very difficult to assess at the moment. Many economic news are affecting the markets very strongly, new political and economic changes are coming at a record pace and most investors are still afraid to lose money. Thus, this Double ZigZag scenario is one of several possible scenarios. We will post a bullish scenario in the next few days.
SP:SPXShort
by Consyder
20 Reason buy S&P🔆MULTI-TIME FRAME TOP-DOWN ANALYSIS OVERVIEW☀️ 1 ✨Eagle eye: Super BUllish 2 📆Monthly: after a deep correction now, the impulsive move is just started 3 📅Weekly: bear trend/beartrap double bottom/ make lower high 4 🕛Daily: the clear bull trend toward extreme high 😇7 Dimension analysis 🟢 analysis time frame: daily 5: 1 Price Structure: bullish 6: 2 Pattern Candle Chart: flag 7: 3 Volume: high volume 8: 4 Momentum UNCONVENTIONAL Rsi: super bullish 9: 5 Volatility measure Bollinger bands: v 10: 6 Strength ADX: bullish 11: 7 Sentiment ROC: bull ✔️ Entry Time Frame: H4 12: Entry TF Structure: bull 13: entry move: impulsive 14: Support resistance base: cip 15: FIB: ☑️ final comments: buy 16: 💡decision: buy 17: 🚀Entry: 4107 18: ✋Stop losel:4019 19: 🎯Take profit:4198
SP:SPXLong
by Optimum369