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Spx500forecast

SPX500 about to fall? Key-Level-Alert!Hey tradomaniacs, SPX500 just pumped up towards a major resistance-area where a lot of bearish confluence is possible. Generally I must say that the recent pump caused by Jerome Powell seems to be SUS as his entire speech was pretty hawkish. I also think he doesnt really want stocks to move up as it would not ease financial conditions and boost inflation. However, technically a good spot to watch! Either for shorts or a break to the upside! What do you think?
FX:SPX500Short
by Trading2ez
5
SPX what a day! Close above 4075SPXNow the next target is the ideal extension target 4119+- few points Ideally we get that number tested by the 5th and see 3750 filled EOM It was a panic cycle day and I did mention about it many times in my posts. One was done during my last night update together with the explanation. We got that a move in one direction above previous high or low, it was up the upside. Also mentioned that it was holding well during the day and huge calls activity. I did trade lotto SPY 408 Dec 1st calls, bought 20 at 6.5c on average, exited at 57 and most of it at 1.08-1.35, amazing lotto Also did few NQ calls, was restriking all afternoon taking profits on those in green, still have 2 running for tomorrow's am exit if not tonight Careful with being long here as the upside is limited and usually the FED day gets reversed by Fri, will it be the same this time, I dont know. There is a good short setup around 4120SPX level, no need to chase the market at this point if missed the long play today
SP:SPX
by RealTima
14
SPX pathway going into tomorrowIf the price will gap down from the open, I expect the price to hit low 39 hundred. The a rally into the FED speech, where more volatility is expected. All day today the price stopped at 10EMA on 1h, not a bullish sign Its a panic cycle day, a move, explanation below: - Given their abrupt or dramatic nature, panic cycles do not necessarily reflect changes in trend or a new high or low—they tend to align to short-term moves or temporary corrections. - A relatively fast, one-way price move, either exceeding a previous high or penetrating a previous low, but not both. My pathway for tomorrow is: - open (gap down) and test low 3900 - rally back to 3970-80SPX (important to hold on any test) - strong sell after Powell opens his mouth Im expecting bottom on Dec 1st. Also tomorrow can produce a very strong selling (if happens, then only after Powell speaking) and it should follow through into the next day. Ideally we retrace all the way to Oct 13th low, it will be a huge buy for a rally back to 3850+ at min by Dec 5-6th. The low is expected by Dec OPEX. The cycles might get inverted, so tomorrow's move will be important to determine a low or a high by Dec OPEX Tomorrow (again IF we start breaking down hard) must close below 3906SPX for a double reversal confirmation. That close will confirm the move down to test 3744-50SPX Resistance is at 3975-80, 4001-10.50, then gap fill and 4037-45SPX, closing above will produce a next target 4120SPX I might be tweeting my trades life tomorrow Have a good night
SP:SPX
by RealTima
4
SPX pathway to close the CPI gap if the FED does not pivotI dont see the FED to pivot any time soon. It can be another Jackson Hall event which will start a new directional move. My ideal pathway is the low around Dec OPEX and high early Jan (might be the 200MA test) Must hold numbers on closing level for tomorrow are: - 3944.50-45 - 3906.50 Both are maj support zones. Second number fits the best with other trendlines align around 3906-14SPX level If the price will get a 4k test in am, it will be a perfect short for a move down to 3944SPX a min if not more. Both long and short setups are coming, be patient if not in a trade already, be patient if you're I gave you the levels to watch, feel free to use them for your own homework. Have a good night.
SP:SPXShort
by RealTima
6
SPX DailyThere is a potential H&S on longer time frame I mentioned before, noted on this chart as well Must hold support for the next week is at 3898-3920SPX. Has to hold on any test, otherwise the price will revisit the Oct 13th gap very quickly My ideal pathway is bottom on the 1st (I still see month of Nov close red at least compare to the previous month) and bounce into the 6th-7th high. If cycles gets inverted, then we should see the low tomorrow and high on the 1st, then it will be a first low on the 6-7th The best scenario for the EOM trade is we see low prices tomorrow am and bounce into 29th high. Then (after the 29th high) reversal down (strong) for the 1st of Dec low. 30th is showing up as a panic day on all indexes, so expect a strong move in direction of the 29th close. - The price might get the gap closed on the 29th (ideal pathway) and continue in a strong move down. Ideally its closes in direction down, it will be a good confirmation for the price going lower into the 1st low. - Ideal target is 3744-55SPX or Oct 13th gap close After the 1st low, it gets tricky. Its either makes a low on the 6th and up into the week of Dec 26th or, ideally a high and down into EOY. Jan seems to be the monthly low of this entire move down from the ATH, perfect 1 year celebration. Intraday low might not come till Mar or even May. Here is zoomed in chart link There is not much of a support below 3866 till 3744SPX, its the must hold Bear/Bull support for the next week. If looking for the extensions, I have resistance at - 4037 - 4045 - 4068-76 (main target) - 4118-20 (Maj resistance) Will be tweeting my other simple chart as can't attach it here. Im swing short and will use the next high to exit all the remaining protective longs I have. Have a great and profitable week everyone!
SP:SPX
by RealTima
2
SPX gapped up in am and retested the trendline from the topSPX gaped up in am and retested the broken trendline from the top, a perfect long for those who traded my call from last night. I did warn that this can test 4007SPX, its getting close to it. Did few long trades in am, not touching this till tomorrow. FED should be a perfect catalysis for the top. If the price will hold 3946-49SPX tomorrow instead of making a new high and crap, then I would be looking for another extension to 4068 with holiday volume by the 28th high. From where I do expect a strong move down into Dec 1st low. Dec 1st low should produce a good long opportunity and ideally it will hit 3744-50SPX. Should see an easy 150 points into Dec 6th if not more. The setup is coming and its tomorrow. I will be on most of the day and will tweet my trades life.
SP:SPX
by RealTima
6
SPX has a perfect gap fill confluence on Dec 1stI really like what I see here: - Longer term broken to the upside downtrend line test from the top 3744-50SPX - As well as the gap to close from CPI numbers 3748.85SPX All comes to Dec 1st. Number to watch for tomorrow is 4010.50SPX on closing level. - If the price gets to 4007SPX I will short with a 10+ points stop Maj support is at 3744SPX on closing level As noted before, I expect a strong selling into the EOM, ideally we mark a high on the 25-28th and sell hard from the 28th high. The month of Nov will have a lower close then Oct month. Ideal downside timing date is Dec 1st for the low and a high (wave 2) on Dec 6th. From there the price will produce some strong selling into 3389 and ideally 3212SPX by the Dec OPEX or few days later. A small recovery into EOY and high in Jan with crash from there. Next year will produce a great long term long opportunity imo. Have a great night
SP:SPX
by RealTima
2
SPX nothing has changed for meLonger term its in bear market. Short term mid range, hard to make a good reading for either up or down move. My best guess we will see 4k and go down to 3875 if not 3750. One thing to note/repeat is EOM will be very strong in selling, at least thats how I see it, and the bottom wont come till the 1st of Dec. My pathway is lower into 22-24th, up into the Cyber Monday and very strong down move into Dec 1st low. I dont see any Santa Rally. Too many still hoping for one and I have a feeling its not coming, but will be lower into at least mid of Dec low! Then a rally into mid Jan high and continuing much lower (strongest move with VIX capitulation) into Mar low, After that Im going to trade mostly in upside into May and then Aug high. Level for tomorrow to watch is the same it was for the whole last week - 4010.50SPX Rejecting it one more time will be a perfect short or exit for a move to 3750SPX Ideally we have one more spike to 4007SPX or so and hard rejection. Have a profitable week everyone and dont get trapped after Wed Fed shenanigans (ideally a fake rally and sell from there into 24th low)
SP:SPX
by RealTima
12
SPX Fake Rally?As we continue to monitor the broader index market we see many discrepancies between the S&P, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones. All 3 are not displaying the same level of strength, but what they do all have in common is signs of weakness with this last rally. Although I'm open to the idea that the markets have bottomed, I still think its more that we still have 1 more leg down at this moment. I continue to see signs of weakness with this last rally, divergence, over-bought indicators, and topping patterns are all showing right now. That doesn't mean the market has to make new lows, but at the very least I would expect a higher low to develop. I would be extremely cautious over the next few weeks/months until we see the market start showing signs of strength again. I believe the current investor sentiment is persistent optimism, which is not good for the markets. We don't know if we'll see a higher low, or a new low, but I would be prepared for the worst-case scenario, which would be the markets pushing down to the $3200 support level. We have a lot of historical support in that area, including the weekly 400EMA and the bottom of our down-trend channel where I think it's likely we see a bottom. Remember, be patient, level-headed, and don't follow the crowd.
SP:SPXShort
by CryptoSyphn
ES chart, nothing changed from last nightI wont be surprised to see 3900 test and then one more up from the bull flag. If 3900 holds we should see 4100+ move on the last leg up. The amount of puts is insane, unless I/we dont know something, its a retail/perma-bears trying to short every top and you know what happens to those puts when P/C ratio is so up. I also start to see some really out of the money SPY put prints, like down to 300-335, which I havent seen last 2 weeks Today is a turning day as well as tomorrow and the day after, so a lot of choppiness is expected and trading levels will be rewarded imo There could be a start of the real move down only after 22-23rd going into EOM where Nov 30th is a panic cycle day. I will be looking to buy next low and currently short ES from 3960.50 with a 9 points stop. Will exit half at 10+ points gain and will move the rest at BE
CME_MINI:ES1!
by RealTima
11
ES above 4001 it explodes, below 3960 goes down to 3900-10I have marked resistance to take and support to break. Did a quick long from 3972.5 long and already out at 3983.50. I will jump on a wagon if it break either side, so far no mans land, need to see the real move here. My thinking is that we get a fakeout in am and sell off into 3900. But I will be looking at the resistance test (if it breaks) and will do a long with a stop. There is a clear bull flag and as well as roofing pattern on the charts, so really need to see a move in a right direction to enter into a trade, waiting at this point There is a turning day tomorrow and the day after. I wont rule out a cycle inversion and a high on the 21-22nd instead of a low. The maj resistance/support levels were provided. Closing above 4010.50SPX will be bullish going into the next cycle of importance. There is a huge option flow to expire on Fri, so a fakeout and dump from there is very possible A close around 385 will be ideal to kill all the premium out there. There is also a big 390 put wall for this Fri exp. Main support for the SPX is at 3750. Daily supports are at 3950-52SPX and then down at 3907-13SPX Have a good night
CME_MINI:ES1!
by RealTima
4