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Spx500forecast

S&P 500: Shooting star + bearish divergence RSIThe trading session on December 13 was full of important technical signals for the S&P 500 index ( US500 ). After the release of a lower-than-expected US CPI in November (7.1% vs. 7.3% expected and down from 7.7% in October), the SPX surged to 4,137 points; however, the price action reversed sharply following sellers' profit-taking on the good news and in anticipation of the significant risk posed by tomorrow's FOMC meeting. The Fed might save hawkish surprises that are not currently priced in by the market, which has factored in a terminal rate of 4.8% in May 2023 and more than 50 basis points of cuts in the second quarter of the year. Technically speaking, we are seeing key signs that can indicate that the bear market rebound has peaked here and lacks the conviction to continue further gains. A shooting-star candlestick has formed on the daily chart, which might imply that the short-term trend is about to reverse. A bearish divergence RSI signal, further supports the November bull trend reversal theory, as the oscillator failed to update new highs when prices did.  Additionally, the S&P 500's positive price action was unable to surpass the critical 50% Fibonacci retracement of the 2022 low to high, indicating that the major bearish trend is still in place. Hawkish shocks from tomorrow's FOMC meeting might cause the SPX to retest support at 3,900 points, with the 50-day moving average (3,860) functioning as the next target.
CAPITALCOM:US500
by Capitalcom
Its setting up for a gap and crap move opposite of Oct 13thThis is my second try, there was an issue with posting, it reset the whole post back to empty. All what Im thinking is that there is a possibility of the opposite Oct 13th move. In this case it can be a gap up and crap all the way into the Fed on Wednesday. I still cant get 3748 gap to get out from my mind and still believe it will get hit this month at minimum. Ideally we see 3580 and reverse into the EOY. There is a window for the low on the 15th and the 19th Resistance is at 4028-34SPX on the closing level. Above 4034 it will go to 4100 and 4019SPX Support is at 3933SPX, below it it will go to 3800
SP:SPX
by RealTima
13
SPX weekend updateThis will be my weekend update. Im flying out tonight for my birthday week, will be in transit into second part of Sunday, if will have time, I will update more charts from the airport. For those who know me from the site I was on for 10 years, I will be seeing Tracey on this vacation trip, so very exited to finally meet her in person We trade every day and Im very exited to trade with her in person. So stay tuned for Twitter life updates. Ok lets get back to the report: I had no chance to check the numbers on Friday, but SPX closed right at my maj support level 3933 (close was at 3934 and futs dived down lower). - So its either a gap up or gap down scenario for Monday! - Resistance is at 4028-34 (Maj resistance) - Maj Support is at 3933 and if lost (gaped down on Monday) then 3850 and 3808SPX (next Maj support) becomes the next target A close below 3808 makes the ideal target next - 3744-48 As noted on Thursday update, if we wont take 3970 it will be very bearish, the high was at 3977 on Friday and you know where it closed! So that call was successfully fulfilled. As noted (grey trendlines above Fri highs) on the chart, you can see that the price rejected some broken trendlines from the bottom, its negative. Close below Thursday low and at the daily lows is negative by itself and usually ends up with continuation on Monday. This is a 1h chart, look at RSI and MACD, both look terrible and not even close to be oversold! Another negative signal Fibs targeting right into 3795-3814SPX zone, inline with my next Maj Support level on closing level - 3808SPX Europe close was at the highs, so they are trapped, big! Another negative signal VIX closed above its mid daily Bollinger for 3rd day straight, positive for VIX negative signal for the markets. Will we get a gap down and a crash like move down on Monday I dont know, but the setup is there. On the other hand if we open at low 3900 (max down to 3889-95 is allowed) and start reversing, it can be a very strong rally day! So its all up to 3900 level on Monday open, ideally we just gap down below it and dont even look back (can just re-test 3908SPX max). then I can make a case of just riding the wave all the way down to 3800 all in one day! CPI is on Tuesday, that would be super interesting, as IF, again Big IF there is at 5% down day on Monday and we close near 3748 gap close, then it can be another great lotto call for another Tuesday big a$$ red open like we had on the Oct 13th. Which will be bought for at least a good size bounce going into the Fed Interest rate decision. Which (Fed day) I think will make the price spike up and then reverse hard. If that happens, then we should see 3580 or low 3600 by Dec 19th. From Dec 19th low, it will be only a long play for me going into early if not mid Jan. This is my pathway going into the next week and EOY. Next week its def can be the craziest week this year! Well and I have a birthday coming up next week as well:) Here is a poll to take, it closes on Sunday midnight, feel free to share with anyone at any site you are on. Lets get a clear picture of the sentiment out there: strawpoll.com So far 40 already made their bets Have a great weekend and do as much research as possible for the next week, as who ever gets trapped, it will be very painful! Please note I can be totally wrong with my prediction, but I have to trade my own homework. If the wind changed to a different direction, I will quickly update my view on the current market situation. Tima
SP:SPXShort
by RealTima
38
SPX important to hold 3900 level on any test/if any tomorrowIdeal pathway for tomorrow is either gap down or sell after the open to mark new lows in low 3900SPX (3896-3908), then a strong reversal into Fri open Im watching two levels for tomorrow on the upside: - 3965-70SPX - 4000SPX Holding 4k will be important, as it will be a text book test of the broken down bull trend to confirm that the price has marked the top and it's on the way to make new lows. I wont be surprised if the price overshoots to 4025-35 and even 4060+ and reverse hard from those levels. So expect unexpected Here is a zoomed in chart for tomorrow Open above today's highs will be bullish. If it does, watch today's high as support. Maj support tomorrow on closing level is 3933-34SPX, its a bear bull line at this point, closing below we will see mid 38 hundred next! Resistance mentioned above and maj resistance is 4119-20SPX, closing above will push price to mid 41 hundred and even 4200+ Im not in that camp, but cant rule out mid 4k test as overshoot/stop run move. Trading cycle is bearish now, all the way into 19-20th low! Dont want 4120SPX being taken, it will flip to bullish if it does. My trading pathway for tomorrow is to buy am lows and ride it at least into the close or at least 3960-70SPX
SP:SPX
by RealTima
2
SPX is at support levelNothing much to add since yesterday's updates. Im looking up for a breakdown trendline test. If its very bearish, then it can just get to 3965-70SPX and stop there. That would mean much lower levels are coming this month! Ideal pathway is to test 4k level and reverse down. That would be your shorting opportunity The whole move off CPI will be erased next! If it happens before the CPI on the 13th, be ware of a move down to 3400-3500!!! So be careful if long here! especially if we stop at 3970SPX
SP:SPX
by RealTima
SP500 Weekly Volatility Analysis 5-9 Dec 2022 SP500 Weekly Volatility Analysis 5-9 Dec 2022 We can see that currently the implied volatility for this week is around 2.64%, down from 2.82% last week according to VIX data With this in mind, currently from ATR point of view we are located in the 56th percentile, while according to VIX, we are on 25th percentile. Based on this, we can expect that the current weekly candles ( from open to close ) are going to between: Bullish: 2.87% movement Bearish: 2.55% movement At the same time, with this data, we can make a top/bot channel which is going to contain inside the movement of this asset, meaning that there is a 24.3% that our close of the weekly candle of this asset is going to be either above/below the next channel: TOP: 4188 BOT: 3960 Taking into consideration the previous weekly high/low, currently for this candle there is : 78% probability we are going to touch previous high of 4110 26% probability we are going to touch previous low of 3942 Lastly, from the technical analysis point of view, currently from Weekly timeframe indicates 53% bullish trend Daily timeframe indicates 80% bullish trend 4H timeframe indicates 53.3% bullish trend
CME_MINI:ES1!
by exlux
S&P 500 Big Picture - Bearish ScenarioMany investors are already assuming a breakout from the upper trend line and thus a continuation of the uptrend. The economic sentiment is still bearish, many companies now have to bear the high capital and energy costs and many companies are still highly overvalued. Therefore, today we would like to introduce you to a bearish scenario that is likely to occur, the Double ZigZag. Structure of a Double ZigZag - Superior: (W) - (X) - (Y) - Subordinate: (ABC) - (ABC) - (ABC) - Subwaves: (12345 - ABC - 12345) - (ABC) - (12345 - ABC - 12345) Current situation If this scenario is correct, we would be in the last sub-wave ABC and now see the last downward movement as sub-wave 12345. This would complete the last subordinate (ABC) wave. This scenario would be confirmed if in the next few days/weeks the SPX initiates a trend reversal to the downside. We already see a weaker SPX struggling to pump above the yellow highlighted resistance. Even if we could make it above this, it would have to be retested first and thus hold above resistance. We now expect the SPX to either make another small breakout to the upside before correcting back down, or for the SPX to correct right away. Strongly changing market The market is very difficult to assess at the moment. Many economic news are affecting the markets very strongly, new political and economic changes are coming at a record pace and most investors are still afraid to lose money. Thus, this Double ZigZag scenario is one of several possible scenarios. We will post a bullish scenario in the next few days.
SP:SPXShort
by Consyder
20 Reason buy S&P🔆MULTI-TIME FRAME TOP-DOWN ANALYSIS OVERVIEW☀️ 1 ✨Eagle eye: Super BUllish 2 📆Monthly: after a deep correction now, the impulsive move is just started 3 📅Weekly: bear trend/beartrap double bottom/ make lower high 4 🕛Daily: the clear bull trend toward extreme high 😇7 Dimension analysis 🟢 analysis time frame: daily 5: 1 Price Structure: bullish 6: 2 Pattern Candle Chart: flag 7: 3 Volume: high volume 8: 4 Momentum UNCONVENTIONAL Rsi: super bullish 9: 5 Volatility measure Bollinger bands: v 10: 6 Strength ADX: bullish 11: 7 Sentiment ROC: bull ✔️ Entry Time Frame: H4 12: Entry TF Structure: bull 13: entry move: impulsive 14: Support resistance base: cip 15: FIB: ☑️ final comments: buy 16: 💡decision: buy 17: 🚀Entry: 4107 18: ✋Stop losel:4019 19: 🎯Take profit:4198
SP:SPXLong
by Optimum369
S&P 500 index: When you reach the top...A very robust US labour market data released on Friday shocked equity markets, which had surged in the aftermath of Powell's speech confirming a slower pace of rises in December. Non-farm payrolls ( NFPs ) came in at 263k, which was significantly higher than the 200k that had been anticipated, and average hourly wages rose 5.1% y/y, well above the 4.6% expected. The job report came as a surprise following an event hosted by the Brookings Institution on Wednesday, at which Powell emphasized the need to slow the pace of rate hikes as early as the December FOMC meeting, therefore solidifying a 50 basis point hike rather than a 75 basis point boost. The market was overly optimistic about a "Santa rally," spurred by Powell's latest dovish attitude, but may now face a rough two-week road leading up to the next US CPI data and FOMC meeting. Prior to Friday, 92% of S&P 500 equities were trading above their 50-day moving average, a level that has historically triggered a bearish reversal. Currently, the level has just fallen to 90%, which remains in the top high of the historical range.  During the Friday session, the S&P 500 index encountered fresh bearish pressure at 4,100 levels on Friday, after strongly breaching its 200-day moving average for the first time since April and firmly trading above the 4,000 psychological mark. The price action had reversed solidly when it met the dynamic resistance, represented by the 2022 trendline. The S&P is currently seeking support near 4,000 points, which coincides with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement line of the low to high of 2022. If this level is broken to the downside, there is the potential for a move to 3,800 (23.6% Fibonacci) prior to important data (US CPI) and the FOMC meeting.  Given the expected repricing of Fed rates for 2023 after the NFP reading, and the Fed blackout period, bull efforts to break over 4,100 have fewer probabilities.
TVC:SPX
by Capitalcom
SPX500 about to fall? Key-Level-Alert!Hey tradomaniacs, SPX500 just pumped up towards a major resistance-area where a lot of bearish confluence is possible. Generally I must say that the recent pump caused by Jerome Powell seems to be SUS as his entire speech was pretty hawkish. I also think he doesnt really want stocks to move up as it would not ease financial conditions and boost inflation. However, technically a good spot to watch! Either for shorts or a break to the upside! What do you think?
FX:SPX500Short
by Trading2ez
5
SPX what a day! Close above 4075SPXNow the next target is the ideal extension target 4119+- few points Ideally we get that number tested by the 5th and see 3750 filled EOM It was a panic cycle day and I did mention about it many times in my posts. One was done during my last night update together with the explanation. We got that a move in one direction above previous high or low, it was up the upside. Also mentioned that it was holding well during the day and huge calls activity. I did trade lotto SPY 408 Dec 1st calls, bought 20 at 6.5c on average, exited at 57 and most of it at 1.08-1.35, amazing lotto Also did few NQ calls, was restriking all afternoon taking profits on those in green, still have 2 running for tomorrow's am exit if not tonight Careful with being long here as the upside is limited and usually the FED day gets reversed by Fri, will it be the same this time, I dont know. There is a good short setup around 4120SPX level, no need to chase the market at this point if missed the long play today
SP:SPX
by RealTima
14
SPX pathway going into tomorrowIf the price will gap down from the open, I expect the price to hit low 39 hundred. The a rally into the FED speech, where more volatility is expected. All day today the price stopped at 10EMA on 1h, not a bullish sign Its a panic cycle day, a move, explanation below: - Given their abrupt or dramatic nature, panic cycles do not necessarily reflect changes in trend or a new high or low—they tend to align to short-term moves or temporary corrections. - A relatively fast, one-way price move, either exceeding a previous high or penetrating a previous low, but not both. My pathway for tomorrow is: - open (gap down) and test low 3900 - rally back to 3970-80SPX (important to hold on any test) - strong sell after Powell opens his mouth Im expecting bottom on Dec 1st. Also tomorrow can produce a very strong selling (if happens, then only after Powell speaking) and it should follow through into the next day. Ideally we retrace all the way to Oct 13th low, it will be a huge buy for a rally back to 3850+ at min by Dec 5-6th. The low is expected by Dec OPEX. The cycles might get inverted, so tomorrow's move will be important to determine a low or a high by Dec OPEX Tomorrow (again IF we start breaking down hard) must close below 3906SPX for a double reversal confirmation. That close will confirm the move down to test 3744-50SPX Resistance is at 3975-80, 4001-10.50, then gap fill and 4037-45SPX, closing above will produce a next target 4120SPX I might be tweeting my trades life tomorrow Have a good night
SP:SPX
by RealTima
4
SPX pathway to close the CPI gap if the FED does not pivotI dont see the FED to pivot any time soon. It can be another Jackson Hall event which will start a new directional move. My ideal pathway is the low around Dec OPEX and high early Jan (might be the 200MA test) Must hold numbers on closing level for tomorrow are: - 3944.50-45 - 3906.50 Both are maj support zones. Second number fits the best with other trendlines align around 3906-14SPX level If the price will get a 4k test in am, it will be a perfect short for a move down to 3944SPX a min if not more. Both long and short setups are coming, be patient if not in a trade already, be patient if you're I gave you the levels to watch, feel free to use them for your own homework. Have a good night.
SP:SPXShort
by RealTima
6
SPX DailyThere is a potential H&S on longer time frame I mentioned before, noted on this chart as well Must hold support for the next week is at 3898-3920SPX. Has to hold on any test, otherwise the price will revisit the Oct 13th gap very quickly My ideal pathway is bottom on the 1st (I still see month of Nov close red at least compare to the previous month) and bounce into the 6th-7th high. If cycles gets inverted, then we should see the low tomorrow and high on the 1st, then it will be a first low on the 6-7th The best scenario for the EOM trade is we see low prices tomorrow am and bounce into 29th high. Then (after the 29th high) reversal down (strong) for the 1st of Dec low. 30th is showing up as a panic day on all indexes, so expect a strong move in direction of the 29th close. - The price might get the gap closed on the 29th (ideal pathway) and continue in a strong move down. Ideally its closes in direction down, it will be a good confirmation for the price going lower into the 1st low. - Ideal target is 3744-55SPX or Oct 13th gap close After the 1st low, it gets tricky. Its either makes a low on the 6th and up into the week of Dec 26th or, ideally a high and down into EOY. Jan seems to be the monthly low of this entire move down from the ATH, perfect 1 year celebration. Intraday low might not come till Mar or even May. Here is zoomed in chart link There is not much of a support below 3866 till 3744SPX, its the must hold Bear/Bull support for the next week. If looking for the extensions, I have resistance at - 4037 - 4045 - 4068-76 (main target) - 4118-20 (Maj resistance) Will be tweeting my other simple chart as can't attach it here. Im swing short and will use the next high to exit all the remaining protective longs I have. Have a great and profitable week everyone!
SP:SPX
by RealTima
2