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Spx500forecast

SPX bounced off resistance, all eyes on 3907SPXSPX must close above 3907 today to confirm the breakout! Bounced off resistance on this move, super extended and overbought now. Resistance is at 3933SPX, broken trend channel test from the bottom I have trimmed my longs (from yesterday's 3755-60ES entry) before the CPI, oh well, cant win them all. SPX is still in its opening channel Tomorrow is a directional change day, will confirm the breakout if the price stays up above 3907 and can get above 3933SPX Volatility is rising into Nov 23rd, I still expect lower into that day, only after a good rally up into EOM For now day trading for me with a core short position
SP:SPX
by RealTima
21
SPX can possibly limit down tomorrowWant to make a special disclaimer here: Do not bet your house on this if you're trading futures (ETF option market is closed) as I might be completely wrong! I want to present you a possibility of another mini crash tomorrow (Oct 13th like) maybe even limit down! If CPI comes hot tomorrow am that could produce another huge sell off like we saw on Oct 13th. CPI poll, make your bets here, share with others: strawpoll.com There are several big issues out there which can contribute to a potential move down: - Treasury reduction, - Crypto crash (leading imo), - Hot CPI, - 10 year action, - Midterms uncertainty (10000% rigged again) - Liquidity is a bigger problem then ever this year (there wont be a bid till it's limit down imo) - Lunar eclipse - Also SAR produced 3 days dots above the price, means the trend is lower and we have a perfect 1-2 setup to the downside Now lets talk about the price and levels: All we need is an open below 3689-3700 and continue sell from the open Supports are at: - 3689 SPX - 3610-45 SPX (support box) where 3610SPX is the maj support, loosing it we get down to: - 3543-52 SPX - 3509 is where the limit down target is - Below 3500 it will not stop till 3415SPX!!! So if this happens you are ready and prepared to trade it. Opening below 3689-3700 will act as a maj resistance for tomorrow and all stops must be there. I will add to my short either before the CPI or right after. Trail short from the open and seat back and relax, as if it goes, there wont be any good bounce due to lack of liquidity. Ideally we see a ramp up into the numbers, but with the election results it could be muted and we wont get a desired rally. Ideal resistance for tonight is at 3780-85ES, I will be closing my longs from 3756 there and flip short with a wide stop. So again, this is a potential I see for tomorrow, if Im wrong and CPI comes lower then expected we could see a decent rally up to 3900 if not 4k (not in one day of course)
SP:SPXShort
by RealTima
22
Analysis of the S&P 500 index: The big game begins…Analysis of the spx 500 index 11/09/22 Today we are here to talk about the SPX 500 index. And so let's see what happened to the index over the past day. What's on the market now: Today the index is trading at the level of 3828. Yesterday the market continued moving towards the level of 3820-3845, which I wrote about earlier. However, at the moment, I see all the signals for a market reversal and its movement to the level of 3440. Like yesterday, today a lot will be decided by the election result, but at the moment there were already sales in Europe and Asia. The market reacts negatively to the elections, as I expected. Large and medium-sized hedge funds are shrinking their portfolios, increasing volatility. However, such actions may provoke a sell-off in order to diversify risks for clients. What is likely to cause a sharp movement to the level of 3440 and below. What I'm looking forward to today: Today I expect the index to move to 3750, however, if the fall accelerates, then all long positions should be closed. There is also a possibility of a sharp movement of the market to the level of 3660. Here are my trading recommendations for today. What I recommend If you want to go short: Short positions are possible from the level of 3830-3850. But you can also try to open a position in the market, limit your losses. If you want to go long: Long positions are prohibited, the market is likely to fall sharply to the level of 3440. If you are out of the market: Today, as yesterday, long positions are prohibited, limit your losses. If you want to open a short position, then it is better to do it from the level of 3830-3875, limit your losses. But if you see anomalous behavior in the market, like a sharp rise, then it is better to stand aside, although the potential for growth to the level of 3970-4050 remains, but at the moment such an event is unlikely. Also remember to contact me in 2 or 3 days for further trading advice. Subscribe to my channel and you will always be aware of the movement of the S&P 500 index. Press your thumbs up. This will give me more motivation. See you next time! Bye!
SP:SPXShort
by kvatoo_FX
1
S&P500 SPXThis is what I see the market doing in SPX ... they will push it towards 3881.16 (blue line) or 3857.55 which is POI at where 194.70M Orders are waiting to be collected in order for it to sell at 3568.88 ( bottom green line) but thats only if the body does not close above 3901.46 (black line) but if it does close above, expect for the market to hit 4057.26 (top green line). Going back to my selling position at 3881.1 As you can see the consolidations from Sept. 16 to Nov. 7 looks like they're leaning towards a small push in order for the SPX to drop.
SP:SPX
by palacioss
SPX long termHe is a bit cleared out chart for my long term view on the SPX. I think (as was saying all year long), that we will revisit 2020 lows and ideally make a higher low at 2855SPX or if super weak low 2400 (less odds at this point) by Mar/Apr 2023. If there is a H&S playing out and we will know soon enough, then the price should get down to 3k zone My ideal target for this year low is at 3212SPX with min 3389SPX (which I think will be sliced/wont hold long if tested) Maj support going into Nov 10-11th low is at 3610 to 3656 SPX, where 3610SPX is the maj support. Below 3610SPX the price will test min 3543-56SPX is not all the way to re-test Oct 13th lows. If in fact that happens, then the move down to 3389 and ideally 3212SPX will be very fast and will bottom on Nov 21-22nd. Ideally we test 3389SPX level on Nov 21-22nd, rally up back to 3545-55SPX and ideally back to 3610-55SPX by EOM and make a final low in Dec either at 3212 or that mid 3k zone. I do think 3k will be a very solid support and will hold this year. This year is a pure bear market and so many still expecting a Santa Rally, I think we get Santa Crappy instead. So after a good size rally (13-18%) from Dec lows to mid Jan high Early next year it will be a perfect scenario where the price dives down to 2855 and low 24 handle to mark the bottom of the whole move down from Jan highs. Then I think the price will start to move up with the money flow from the European countries and other countries to a safe heaven - the US stock market. DOW will benefit the most imo, so I expect DOW to outperform, SPX to follow. That high might be a double top sometime in 2026 and then another move down to 1550SPX zone by 2030-32 So if played right and give enough time to your trade, a lot of money can be made playing long term/swing this pathway Have a good night, tomorrow will be interesting, expect a lot of volatility to hit the market going all the way till Christmas time
SP:SPX
by RealTima
5
SPX can be in a much bigger H&S patternIf this H&S plays out/triggers we will see the price in 3k zone For now there is a support box for the move lower. Expect unexpected, as the price was tested so many times on the downside, it can break next time it does test it. Also if this is a start of the wave 3 down, it will be fast and with min retracements, so be careful when trying catching the knife Sar dots on daily are printing from the top 3rd day in a raw, 4h just joined the party VIX and UVXY got very green already Im swing short and my timing for the low is 21-22nd of Nov Should move down into 10-11th low, then up into the 15-16th and final push to 21-22nd low
SP:SPX
by RealTima
2
Observation of Recent Trends & A Likely Reversal; SPX500Good Day All, By looking at the first four days of November, it clearly shows a downtrend which resulted in more than 5% reduction in SPX500 levels. But slowly and steadily Prices are recovering and heading for the consolidation zone that is from 3830 - 3870, The 40 point range and the price's behavior will determine whether it'll be bullish/bearish, but judging from the key levels marked in black, though some may call it outdated, I have observed prices in many unique pairs almost always respecting levels of old. To conclude, I hope prices will continue its bullish trend past the consolidation zone for reasoning which may not sound logical but then again, I'm still new to this. If indeed by rare occurrence someone decides to use this prediction, please do your own analysis first and foremost, while i don't mind my idea helping others, I wouldn't like to see others fail alongside me due to my own. Take Profit 1 : 3855 Take Profit 2 : 3870 Stop Loss : 3790 Possible Prediction Expiry Date & Rules: If Price Breaks Out of Bounds & A Week Or So.
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by xevious000
1
S&P500 SPXThis is what I see the market doing in SPX... they will push it towards 3881.16 (blue line) or 3857.55 which is POI at where 194.70M Orders are waiting to be collected in order for it to sell at 3568.88 ( bottom green line) but thats only if the body does not close above 3901.46 (black line) but if it does close above, expect for the market to hit 4057.26 (top green line). Going back to my selling position at 3881.1 As you can see the consolidations from Sept. 16 to Nov. 7 looks like they're leaning towards a small push in order for the SPX to drop.
SP:SPX
by palacioss
2
S&P 500 SPXThis is what I see the market doing in SPX... they will push it towards 3881.16 (blue line) or 3857.55 which is POI at where 194.70M Orders are waiting to be collected in order for it to sell at 3568.88 ( bottom green line) but thats only if the body does not close above 3901.46 (black line) but if it does close above, expect for the market to hit 4057.26 (top green line). Going back to my selling position at 3881.1 As you can see the consolidations from Sept. 16 to Nov. 7 looks like they're leaning towards a small push in order for the SPX to drop.
SP:SPX
by palacioss
SPX Weekly Volatility Forecast 7-11 November 2022 We can see thSPX Weekly Volatility Forecast 7-11 November 2022 We can see that this week our volatility is at 3.41% which declined from 3.56% last week. Currently according to ATR we are on 80th percentile, and according to VIX we are on 65th percentile, indicating in both cases, that we are currently is a volatile market. Now, based on the implied volatility data that we have for this week, lets look into further details. We can see that currently there is 24.3% chance, that our candle is going to close at the end of the week either above/below the next channel TOP: 3890 BOT: 3616 This can also be translated as a 75.7% chance that the market is going to move within this established range. At the same, looking at the previous high/low values of the candle, and taking into account the entire history available of data, we can expect that there is going to be a 38% chance that we are going to touch the previous high of 3930 66% chance that we are going to touch the previous low of 3700
SP:SPX
by exlux
SPX next week pathwayIm looking for an ABC move up tomorrow for a new high 3815-35SPX (if we wont take Fri lows) Ideally we bottom in ES deeper then the cash price and cash will get its 50% retracement hit in am tomorrow, then we go up to close the Sunday opening gap Then we should fall hard into 34 handle territory. My timing is a low in Nov for the year and Jan high, then Mar/Apr maj low of this move. Note this: Fed is removing $40B by Nov 15, then aprox $20B/week through the EOY So dont expect Santa being nice to the bullz...
SP:SPX
by RealTima
6
SPX & 50/50 SCENARIO . Hello everyone . Interesting CLOSE today . IN DESISION ..... It made me thinking . So lets zoom in and take a look . My deep feeling is that this is not a bottom like many are suggesting . My approach is more speculated on small global chaos we are facing .... and one that is coming next year . I know and as I'm writing this made me thinking again its next year not this one . We also all know that politics do effect the markets . Let me know what you think and if you have any questions ,
SP:SPX
by PTO
SPX updated Fri chartFibs are on the chart, so far stopped at 50% retracement, I would expect 61.8 to get hit today, right into the resistance trendline (black line) Yesterday's box was resistance, now its a support, use that if you want to go long (if we get a pullback today) I was expecting this rally, but missed am entry, had one NQ running on the long side from yesterday and that was closed at the open spike. I have also added back to my swing short MNQ (was closed those at 645 and 685 mentioned pre-market on that spike down), not doing anything else, as this can stretch up into the 7th and I dont want to increase my short position here. You saw how they can do destroy both sides with am fckery, so have stops if you are in green, do not let your trade turn against you! Again its Friday, DO NOT OVER TRADE! Dont give them back your weekly gains!
SP:SPX
by RealTima
31
SPX - I got you all targets hit! Well we hit all the targets outlined on Oct 30-31st. Now if we wont hold today's lows we will see mid 3600 - I have a box zone at 3665-75 - and 3641.50-50SPX as the next target zone, where 3641.50 is a Maj support on closing level! - Supports on the way are - 3718-20SPX - 3689SPX Resistance: - 3791-3803 - 3907 is where the Maj resistance again Also I want to present a possibility I was taking about on Oct 31st update of a bigger H&S where its working on the head at the moment. I did some calculations and there is a chance we see 3552-89SPX on this leg down, that would be a perfect spot for the head to stop. Can extend into 3500 zone as I expect the whole move to be retraced in full from Oct 13th lows (mentioned this many times) Will post the H&S chart here in a bit
SP:SPX
by RealTima
33
Selling SPX into rallies.US500 - 7h expiry - We look to Sell at 3807 (stop at 3847) Trades at the lowest level in 8 days. Broken out of the wedge to the downside. The formation has a measured move target of 3629. We are trading at oversold extremes. Preferred trade is to sell into rallies. 3810 has been pivotal. Yesterday's Marabuzo is located at 3807. Our profit targets will be 3672 and 3629 Resistance: 3807 / 3810 / 3845 Support: 3672 / 3629 / 3600 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by OANDA
SPX Weekend updateThis will be a quick update. As long as we hold 3907-13SPX on closing level we should see lower going into Tuesday am, then up into 2nd/3rd high. Another possibility is we bottom on the 2nd and reverse into the Midterms with higher levels to be seen, maybe even above 4-4.1k zone I really have no good support till the support cluster zone at 3739-3750SPX There are 2 supports on the way, look for 2 grey lines below the price. Ideally we gap down tomorrow and wont look back till 3750-40 zone is tested then a rally back to 3918SPX before the Fed decision. Im having a dilemma is we see a low or a high on the 2nd (pre-FED), ideally its a low and not the high, as I want to see a good push into Midterms with the high to be seen on week of Nov 7th. Then I would expect a strong move down to at least re-test of Oct 13th lows + or -, if not 34 handle. Its getting to a point where it can breakout, cant rule out that. If we do, we should see 4-4.1k and no way higher then 4300. Nov is a bearish month when going back to Mid-Term elections and since its a bear market, I expect Nov to be a red month with Oct being the high month. Tomorrow am will be a telling story, so far futures are slightly down and we have a gap from Sunday open, futures gaps always get filled! Will those be filled after a strong move down tomorrow into the 2nd or it might get filled before the open or in am at top. Again all eyes on 3907-13SPX as a maj resistance going into tomorrow. If the price closes strongly above that resistance tomorrow, I will get long into Nov 2nd high. So far Im swing short and quite under the water from Fri close. Its going to be a very volatile month, so dont get emotional thinking that you're missing the train and jump when tomorrow it all can dramatically change
SP:SPX
by RealTima
8
SPX still unclearI have no good feeling on either direction here. Its all can be muted all the way till the 2nd decision In idea it has to gap down and retrace into Fri am lows around 3808SPX or so Ideally we test 374-50 support zone and then rally up for a higher or lower high, back testing 3907-13SPX level Its all up to 3707-13SPX level on closing level, bull/bear line Futures are up at this moment, so hard to make a call here, If we hold in am, I will do a long trade as it might get another squeeze into 4010-20SPX zone with 3960SPX as a smaller degree resistance on the way. Im swing short and under the water, I do believe that November month will be negative and I have huge doubts of Santa Rally being present this year. There is a chance we get a Santa Crappy into EOY instead:) If I see something solid in am, I will post it right away, for now as long as we hold 3907-13SPX Im looking for lower levels to be seen.
SP:SPX
by RealTima
18