Selling SPX into rallies.US500 - 7h expiry - We look to Sell at 3807 (stop at 3847)
Trades at the lowest level in 8 days.
Broken out of the wedge to the downside.
The formation has a measured move target of 3629.
We are trading at oversold extremes.
Preferred trade is to sell into rallies.
3810 has been pivotal.
Yesterday's Marabuzo is located at 3807.
Our profit targets will be 3672 and 3629
Resistance: 3807 / 3810 / 3845
Support: 3672 / 3629 / 3600
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Spx500forecast
SPX Weekend updateThis will be a quick update.
As long as we hold 3907-13SPX on closing level we should see lower going into Tuesday am, then up into 2nd/3rd high.
Another possibility is we bottom on the 2nd and reverse into the Midterms with higher levels to be seen, maybe even above 4-4.1k zone
I really have no good support till the support cluster zone at 3739-3750SPX
There are 2 supports on the way, look for 2 grey lines below the price.
Ideally we gap down tomorrow and wont look back till 3750-40 zone is tested then a rally back to 3918SPX before the Fed decision.
Im having a dilemma is we see a low or a high on the 2nd (pre-FED), ideally its a low and not the high, as I want to see a good push into Midterms with the high to be seen on week of Nov 7th.
Then I would expect a strong move down to at least re-test of Oct 13th lows + or -, if not 34 handle.
Its getting to a point where it can breakout, cant rule out that.
If we do, we should see 4-4.1k and no way higher then 4300.
Nov is a bearish month when going back to Mid-Term elections and since its a bear market, I expect Nov to be a red month with Oct being the high month.
Tomorrow am will be a telling story, so far futures are slightly down and we have a gap from Sunday open, futures gaps always get filled!
Will those be filled after a strong move down tomorrow into the 2nd or it might get filled before the open or in am at top.
Again all eyes on 3907-13SPX as a maj resistance going into tomorrow.
If the price closes strongly above that resistance tomorrow, I will get long into Nov 2nd high.
So far Im swing short and quite under the water from Fri close.
Its going to be a very volatile month, so dont get emotional thinking that you're missing the train and jump when tomorrow it all can dramatically change
SPX still unclearI have no good feeling on either direction here.
Its all can be muted all the way till the 2nd decision
In idea it has to gap down and retrace into Fri am lows around 3808SPX or so
Ideally we test 374-50 support zone and then rally up for a higher or lower high, back testing 3907-13SPX level
Its all up to 3707-13SPX level on closing level, bull/bear line
Futures are up at this moment, so hard to make a call here, If we hold in am, I will do a long trade as it might get another squeeze into 4010-20SPX zone with 3960SPX as a smaller degree resistance on the way.
Im swing short and under the water, I do believe that November month will be negative and I have huge doubts of Santa Rally being present this year.
There is a chance we get a Santa Crappy into EOY instead:)
If I see something solid in am, I will post it right away, for now as long as we hold 3907-13SPX Im looking for lower levels to be seen.
SPX Monthly Forecast Movements 1-30 November 2022 SPX Monthly Forecast Movements 1-30 November 2022
We can see that for this month, the implied volatility is around 7.47%, decreasing from 7.49% of last month.
This is currently placing us in the 85th percentile according to ATR and 100th according to VIX
Based on this percentile calculation, on average the monthly movement for the candle(from open of the candle to the close of the candle) is:
BEARISH Candle : 6.23%
BULLISH Candle : 5.1%
With this in mind we can expect with a close to 15.7% probability that our close of the monthly candle is going to close either above or below the next channel:
BOT: 3610
TOP: 4200
Lastly, based on the calculations that we had for touching the previous candle high and low values, we can estimate that there is a :
80% chance that we are going to touch the previous monthly high of 3900(already happened yesterday)
25% chance that we are going to touch the previous monthly low of 3492
SPX on the closeDoesnt look like a bullish setup to me.
Want to see a good sell off tomorrow and big rally into Nov 7-8th high
The low might come on the 4th, then short lived rally
Im swing short and I have also bought QQQ 270P exp on the 4th (will be out from them in am tomorrow, if we get a gap down open)
We will see...
SPX rejected its resistance, ES got its gap filled from SunNothing much to add today, another rejection of the top.
As noted on Sunday, ES and NQ gaps (all futs gaps) always get filled, so it happened in am.
I did long from 3901 and exited at 3922ES just for the am dump to take my gains with stop losses.
I did few trades from 58 and 53 level, already exited
SPX price is below the opening range and cant re take it, putting pressure for lower to be seen.
I have a long order at 3814.50 and 3815ES, want that to hold and break only after the FED announcement fakeout.
It seems its going to put a pressure lower into Fri numbers and rally into 7-8th if not the CPI release on the 10th.
Then Im looking for much lower into week of 21st of Nov.
SPX Weekly Volatility Forecast 31/10 - 04/11 2022 SPX Weekly Volatility Forecast 31/10 - 04/11 2022
Currently the volatility for this week is around 3.57% , up from expected 3.4% last week.
According to ATR calculation, currently the volatility is located around 72th percentile.
Under this circumstances the expected movement of the candle is :
BEAR : 2.6% from the opening point of the weekly candle
BULL : 2.8% from the opening point of the weekly candle
At the same time, currently there is 10.8% that the movement within this weekly candle is going to
break and close either above or below the next channel:
TOP: 4044
BOT: 3778
Lastly, taking into account the previous weekly high and low there is a :
79% chance that we are going to touch the previous week high
27% chance that we are going to touch the previous week low
🟢 SPX - 1D (08.10.2022)🟢 SPX
TF: 1D
Side: Long
Pattern: Double Bottom / Harmonic Bat
SL: $3275.91
TP 1: $3875.47
TP 2: $4055.71
TP 3: $4201.38
There is some bullish divergence on the 1D time frame on SPX.
Possible double bottom could be forming here if the $3,500 support holds.
This would see bullish continuity through to the end of the 2022.
SPX Low Risk/High - Oct 28’22 3885 20Wide Butterfly💡 SPX Beyond 0dte Trading - Oct 28’22 3885 20Wide Butterfly
Debit: $85
Max Profit: $1,915
*Will be scaling into the position with multiple tranches.
Hey everyone!, I have been trading alot of 0dte Butterfly Spreads with much success and given the attractive risk/reward profile I've been using this strategy for swing trade ideas primarily on SPX. The notes below are from our Beyond 0dte report. (graphs included in report)
Comments from Fed Daily regarding a potential slowdown in rate hikes led to a strong rally on Friday and just may have shifted the short term sentiment going into the November FOMC meeting.
Put interest was huge at recent market lows…. again. The crowd has already been offloading some of those puts as values quickly evaporate. Should this positioning continue to unwind, participants will be forced to cover their shorts or cover the possible upside risks via buying calls.
If markets can sustain upside momentum, systematic flows may provide support for the next leg higher. CTA buy levels are around $3,800 and $3,900.
VVIX, which measures volatility of volatility, has crashed while VIX remains stubbornly high despite the move higher in equities. Will VIX follow VVIX lower?
The issue for implied volatility to come down sharply is that we have another 2 weeks until two strong volatility catalysts: FOMC (11/2) and elections (11/8). However, if traders start to sell short dated volatility (anything expiring before November) that should provide a tailwind for equities.
S&P 500 Index seasonality is supportive for higher prices heading into the US midterm elections and Q4.
70% of S&P 500 companies have beaten revenue estimates to date for Q3. This is above the 5-year average of 69% and above the 10-year average of 62%. In S&P terms, this translates into 4.4% earnings beat and 0.9% revenue beat thus far.
Both S&P 500 and Nasdaq are coming off their best week since June, and are entering the busiest week of the earnings season with 46% of the S&P 500’s market cap due to announce third-quarter results.
Microsoft and Google report earnings on Tuesday (10/25) with Apple and Amazon reporting on Thursday (10/27).
Due to the current positioning, we think the market will either drift lower or “crash” higher in the form of a short cover rally.
Our base case is for a relief rally into November, all else equal. However, if big tech earnings disappoint that may negate our thesis.
Happy Trading!
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SPX update Oct 28thTodays candle, if it closes up (it seems that it will), going to cancel the topping pattern candles we had last 2 days, means more squeeze to come.
Next stop is at 3907-09SPX for the top of this move.
Support is at 3725-35SPX and I will be buying it for that last target with a stop
I have posted in comments this am:
That my 50% short was stopped at BE other 50% I took off after the AMZN move, also some protective longs sold yesterday evening at a loss and rest this am with a small gain.
I went back to sleep in am and now its a more clear picture to me.
Im still in that B wave down camp, only it might be a start of a new wave and that C can be shorter as we are approaching 3907-09. If it does want to extend then we could see very well 4k, but Im not in that camp just yet.
My target is the same for the next low - 3690-3718SPX at min, below we could see a retest of Oct lows, which I personally think will be re-tested and it should make new lows into 34 and 32 handle.
Again there is no more crash window, but month of Nov is a seasonally bearish month after Oct high! Note this, that its bearish during the bear market, which we are now! Many will be looking for a bullish month of Nov based on regular seasonal pattern.
My swing short is quite under the water after those being BE last night, Im holding those for my targets mentioned above
SPX positive divergense, not going to push anything just yetSPX there is a good setup for a push, will it break to the upside or just break, no idea.
Im leaning lower into EOM regardless of the outcome.
I will trade the breakout or breakdown test
On daily the chart is looking for lower, yesterday and today's candles are bearish to my eyes
Trend channel is brokenIm not buying till at least first support is tested.
Tomorrow should mark the top if it was not done today.
Im not trading the "last move up" as it might or might not come.
Those who are in ATH camp will get destroyed like they were all this year.
Its not going to bottom (for the year) till Nov low and the bottom would not come will Apr/May next year and it can be so much lower from where we are now!
SPX my pathway for the next week or 2First of all I want to say thank you to my 1k+ followers as of today!
Means a lot to me, as it shows me that my work helps others to navigate the markets and my time spent posting charts gets respected.
Solar eclipse! Seems we have topped here, at least for now
There is also a lunar eclipse on Nov 7-8th, watch for a possible higher high if not lower high there.
So my pathway is down to 3689 or so, then up to 3908 or so and only after we go down to 3500SPX level again
Again, I do think we will re visit Oct 2nd lows at min, so that move could be it.
If this pathway will play out up to Nov 2nd, then I will be huge long from that level going into the Midterms and short that lunar eclipse high.
If in fact this all plays out, I do believe we will see my 3212SPX by Nov 21st week if not 2855SPX
This is my game plan, I do have a right to change it at any time if I see changes going against my pathway.
Have a good night and please dont forget to press that 🚀 button to push this chart up so more people will see it.
SPX updateI have missed all todays rally, had only a long from 3792 and exited at 3805
My swing short isnt in a best shape, but I have protective longs going till they stop working.
Maj resistance today is 3798SPX and its going to close above it.
Next maj resistance is at 3907 on daily and 3913-14 on weekly
Today is a solar eclipse day, usually markets top on or around solar eclipse day.
Im not buying this move up, its just all 3 waves moves up with extensions, nothing else.
The price is already getting to overbought zone and the fear and greed is already in neutral zone and getting close to cross the greed zone.
VIX is in support zone, but close to be broken to the downside, still lots of room there.
SPX supports are at 3825 and 3808-07 and then maj support is at 3789SPX
I have some price confluence in 3900-20SPX zone as mentioned yesterday and closing above 3820SPX will confirm that target.
Watching the price and 3820-25SPX test to enter with longs for 3900 target
SO far there is a small H&S on ES and NQ on 15min, not touching anything just yet.
Long term chartThis is how I see the whole move developing into end of Q1 of the next year.
I do expect we will bottom on Mar/Apr (May if stretched) 2023 and then rally up into a bigger B wave up.
There is a chance that we will see 1550-1750SPX as well as 4300-4500 within next 10 years, doubt we see new highs till after 2032
Please note Im not a Nostradamus or a person who predicts the future, my view can be changed at any time if I see changes on long term charts.
Few numbers to watch
- 3196 is 61.8% retracement off 2020 lows
- 3238 is where 38.2% retracement off 2009 lows
Maj support for the whole move down is at 3200-3240SPX - A wave
B wave up to 4k+- (to be determent)
C wave down to my low 24 handle next year to mark the bottom of the whole move down from Jan highs.
SPX is in mid range decision pointHappy Sunday everyone
Here is a 4h chart.
We are getting close to the breakout point, has to hold at that upper trendline
Main resistance is at 3775SPX, dont rule out a fakeout into 3800 to finish up C wave up.
- If breakout happens, will be watching for the test of the breakout trenline from the bottom and if broken out from the top.
- Will do a long trade on the test with a tight stop (if breakout happens)
- 3800-20SPX will be a very important level to watch or 3798SPX on closing level (bull/bear closing number)
- above 3820SPX we will see 3910-25SPX
Few things to mention:
- TRIN is at .69 on Fri close (can mark a top or within 2 days)
- VIX at support
- All main moving averages are pointing down
- Bull flag broken to the upside on Fri (something to pay attention to!)
- Right shoulder is getting close to invalidate, watching
Will be watching 3800 and 3645 SPX levels this coming week.
We have a directional change tomorrow as well as following Tuesday.
My thinking we will turn down hard on Monday and bottom on Tuesday fulfilling cycle low on the 24th
Then rally into the 27th high and down again into EOM or 2-4th of Nov
Will be looking a rally after the Midterms, which will be short lived.
A maj low on week of Nov 21st and then rally into Jan
Nov low will be a good swing long imo will be looking for dips to buy after that low is behind us.
Will post long term view next
Chop Chop continues. Its Friday - Dont Overtrade!No follow through today, really in a no mans land.
A bull flag is a worry for the bears and the H&S (which is quite big) is a worry for the bulls.
Peak your side:)
Wont rule out a move to 3770-80SPX to have everyone believe that we have broken the bull flag to the upside, then we finally reverse and re-visit Oct 2nd low at min
Im seating out and waiting for a right setup to come as well as holding my swing short.
Dont want to miss the bus when the things starts moving.
Its Friday, DO NOT OVER-TRADE! Keep your weekly gains, dont give those back!
SPX is in decision modeIm always honest with my homework, I dont like to have several counts to be always right.
At this point Im seeing both scenarios:
1 - We break the orange trendline and we are off the races to 3900-4000 (not preferred)
2 - We break 3500 or Oct 2nd low, we see 3380-3410 at min!
I'm in lower lows camp, as you know. But the window for the strong move down to start is just almost out, has to start tomorrow!
- The bull flag noted on the chart cant be unnoticeable! If it breaks, that's it for lower levels until Midterms!
- On the bear side, we have perfect H&S as well as the price being so weak and bounces being so muted, its ready for the crash to start, it just needs a little help to push the markets off the cliff!
Will we have that catalysis? I bet yes, the question is when!
Will repeat again, November is a panic month. Can be an avalanche of events! War, elections, bonds going off the roof, all the economic issues around the globe.
My conclusion here is this:
- Im net short, I will flip if we get above that trendline shown on the chart and enter on re test. I dont want to do it as it will cost me in stop losses
- Im not adding to short till we break 3500 or Oct 2nd lows!
- If we break, we will see 3380-3410 and then should have a good bounce to 3500, then it will be another perfect show for a move down to at least 3200-10!
Have a good night everyone!
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