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SPX Low Risk/High - Oct 28’22 3885 20Wide Butterfly💡 SPX Beyond 0dte Trading - Oct 28’22 3885 20Wide Butterfly Debit: $85 Max Profit: $1,915 *Will be scaling into the position with multiple tranches. Hey everyone!, I have been trading alot of 0dte Butterfly Spreads with much success and given the attractive risk/reward profile I've been using this strategy for swing trade ideas primarily on SPX. The notes below are from our Beyond 0dte report. (graphs included in report) Comments from Fed Daily regarding a potential slowdown in rate hikes led to a strong rally on Friday and just may have shifted the short term sentiment going into the November FOMC meeting. Put interest was huge at recent market lows…. again. The crowd has already been offloading some of those puts as values quickly evaporate. Should this positioning continue to unwind, participants will be forced to cover their shorts or cover the possible upside risks via buying calls. If markets can sustain upside momentum, systematic flows may provide support for the next leg higher. CTA buy levels are around $3,800 and $3,900. VVIX, which measures volatility of volatility, has crashed while VIX remains stubbornly high despite the move higher in equities. Will VIX follow VVIX lower? The issue for implied volatility to come down sharply is that we have another 2 weeks until two strong volatility catalysts: FOMC (11/2) and elections (11/8). However, if traders start to sell short dated volatility (anything expiring before November) that should provide a tailwind for equities. S&P 500 Index seasonality is supportive for higher prices heading into the US midterm elections and Q4. 70% of S&P 500 companies have beaten revenue estimates to date for Q3. This is above the 5-year average of 69% and above the 10-year average of 62%. In S&P terms, this translates into 4.4% earnings beat and 0.9% revenue beat thus far. Both S&P 500 and Nasdaq are coming off their best week since June, and are entering the busiest week of the earnings season with 46% of the S&P 500’s market cap due to announce third-quarter results. Microsoft and Google report earnings on Tuesday (10/25) with Apple and Amazon reporting on Thursday (10/27). Due to the current positioning, we think the market will either drift lower or “crash” higher in the form of a short cover rally. Our base case is for a relief rally into November, all else equal. However, if big tech earnings disappoint that may negate our thesis. Happy Trading! 0DTE TRADERS ✅ Trade Ideas & Alerts ✅ Market Analysis ✅ Education
SP:SPXLong
by 0dteTraders
SPX update Oct 28thTodays candle, if it closes up (it seems that it will), going to cancel the topping pattern candles we had last 2 days, means more squeeze to come. Next stop is at 3907-09SPX for the top of this move. Support is at 3725-35SPX and I will be buying it for that last target with a stop I have posted in comments this am: That my 50% short was stopped at BE other 50% I took off after the AMZN move, also some protective longs sold yesterday evening at a loss and rest this am with a small gain. I went back to sleep in am and now its a more clear picture to me. Im still in that B wave down camp, only it might be a start of a new wave and that C can be shorter as we are approaching 3907-09. If it does want to extend then we could see very well 4k, but Im not in that camp just yet. My target is the same for the next low - 3690-3718SPX at min, below we could see a retest of Oct lows, which I personally think will be re-tested and it should make new lows into 34 and 32 handle. Again there is no more crash window, but month of Nov is a seasonally bearish month after Oct high! Note this, that its bearish during the bear market, which we are now! Many will be looking for a bullish month of Nov based on regular seasonal pattern. My swing short is quite under the water after those being BE last night, Im holding those for my targets mentioned above
SP:SPX
by RealTima
17
SPX my pathway for the next week or 2First of all I want to say thank you to my 1k+ followers as of today! Means a lot to me, as it shows me that my work helps others to navigate the markets and my time spent posting charts gets respected. Solar eclipse! Seems we have topped here, at least for now There is also a lunar eclipse on Nov 7-8th, watch for a possible higher high if not lower high there. So my pathway is down to 3689 or so, then up to 3908 or so and only after we go down to 3500SPX level again Again, I do think we will re visit Oct 2nd lows at min, so that move could be it. If this pathway will play out up to Nov 2nd, then I will be huge long from that level going into the Midterms and short that lunar eclipse high. If in fact this all plays out, I do believe we will see my 3212SPX by Nov 21st week if not 2855SPX This is my game plan, I do have a right to change it at any time if I see changes going against my pathway. Have a good night and please dont forget to press that 🚀 button to push this chart up so more people will see it.
SP:SPX
by RealTima
32
SPX updateI have missed all todays rally, had only a long from 3792 and exited at 3805 My swing short isnt in a best shape, but I have protective longs going till they stop working. Maj resistance today is 3798SPX and its going to close above it. Next maj resistance is at 3907 on daily and 3913-14 on weekly Today is a solar eclipse day, usually markets top on or around solar eclipse day. Im not buying this move up, its just all 3 waves moves up with extensions, nothing else. The price is already getting to overbought zone and the fear and greed is already in neutral zone and getting close to cross the greed zone. VIX is in support zone, but close to be broken to the downside, still lots of room there. SPX supports are at 3825 and 3808-07 and then maj support is at 3789SPX I have some price confluence in 3900-20SPX zone as mentioned yesterday and closing above 3820SPX will confirm that target. Watching the price and 3820-25SPX test to enter with longs for 3900 target SO far there is a small H&S on ES and NQ on 15min, not touching anything just yet.
SP:SPX
by RealTima
28
Long term chartThis is how I see the whole move developing into end of Q1 of the next year. I do expect we will bottom on Mar/Apr (May if stretched) 2023 and then rally up into a bigger B wave up. There is a chance that we will see 1550-1750SPX as well as 4300-4500 within next 10 years, doubt we see new highs till after 2032 Please note Im not a Nostradamus or a person who predicts the future, my view can be changed at any time if I see changes on long term charts. Few numbers to watch - 3196 is 61.8% retracement off 2020 lows - 3238 is where 38.2% retracement off 2009 lows Maj support for the whole move down is at 3200-3240SPX - A wave B wave up to 4k+- (to be determent) C wave down to my low 24 handle next year to mark the bottom of the whole move down from Jan highs.
SP:SPX
by RealTima
20
SPX is in mid range decision pointHappy Sunday everyone Here is a 4h chart. We are getting close to the breakout point, has to hold at that upper trendline Main resistance is at 3775SPX, dont rule out a fakeout into 3800 to finish up C wave up. - If breakout happens, will be watching for the test of the breakout trenline from the bottom and if broken out from the top. - Will do a long trade on the test with a tight stop (if breakout happens) - 3800-20SPX will be a very important level to watch or 3798SPX on closing level (bull/bear closing number) - above 3820SPX we will see 3910-25SPX Few things to mention: - TRIN is at .69 on Fri close (can mark a top or within 2 days) - VIX at support - All main moving averages are pointing down - Bull flag broken to the upside on Fri (something to pay attention to!) - Right shoulder is getting close to invalidate, watching Will be watching 3800 and 3645 SPX levels this coming week. We have a directional change tomorrow as well as following Tuesday. My thinking we will turn down hard on Monday and bottom on Tuesday fulfilling cycle low on the 24th Then rally into the 27th high and down again into EOM or 2-4th of Nov Will be looking a rally after the Midterms, which will be short lived. A maj low on week of Nov 21st and then rally into Jan Nov low will be a good swing long imo will be looking for dips to buy after that low is behind us. Will post long term view next
SP:SPX
by RealTima
10
Chop Chop continues. Its Friday - Dont Overtrade!No follow through today, really in a no mans land. A bull flag is a worry for the bears and the H&S (which is quite big) is a worry for the bulls. Peak your side:) Wont rule out a move to 3770-80SPX to have everyone believe that we have broken the bull flag to the upside, then we finally reverse and re-visit Oct 2nd low at min Im seating out and waiting for a right setup to come as well as holding my swing short. Dont want to miss the bus when the things starts moving. Its Friday, DO NOT OVER-TRADE! Keep your weekly gains, dont give those back!
SP:SPX
by RealTima
16
SPX is in decision modeIm always honest with my homework, I dont like to have several counts to be always right. At this point Im seeing both scenarios: 1 - We break the orange trendline and we are off the races to 3900-4000 (not preferred) 2 - We break 3500 or Oct 2nd low, we see 3380-3410 at min! I'm in lower lows camp, as you know. But the window for the strong move down to start is just almost out, has to start tomorrow! - The bull flag noted on the chart cant be unnoticeable! If it breaks, that's it for lower levels until Midterms! - On the bear side, we have perfect H&S as well as the price being so weak and bounces being so muted, its ready for the crash to start, it just needs a little help to push the markets off the cliff! Will we have that catalysis? I bet yes, the question is when! Will repeat again, November is a panic month. Can be an avalanche of events! War, elections, bonds going off the roof, all the economic issues around the globe. My conclusion here is this: - Im net short, I will flip if we get above that trendline shown on the chart and enter on re test. I dont want to do it as it will cost me in stop losses - Im not adding to short till we break 3500 or Oct 2nd lows! - If we break, we will see 3380-3410 and then should have a good bounce to 3500, then it will be another perfect show for a move down to at least 3200-10! Have a good night everyone! P.S. Please press that rocket button below, push this chart up for others to see. Also feel free to share my charts with anyone, lets get 1k followers, means my work is important for others to see.
SP:SPX
by RealTima
8
SPX broke down, nothing changed since amHi everyone, I slept in today and did few things around house, needed some time off the screen. Yesterday wasnt a good day for me, I had some losses with stops, its not an easy market to trade, too wide stops get triggered as well. Im doing swing trades now only till the first extreme hits. So far its short the rip game and Im looking for the first test of 3650SPX Targets to hit are on the chart - 3640 - 3580 - and then new lows! Im still expecting down move to new lows, crash scenario is off the table. At least that is not what Im warred about. BUT I still expect 3212 within a month time frame and ideally 28 handle (super ideal is 24 handle:) Shoot me questions, Im on my computer now! Will post other charts next. VIX to hit $60+ imo and that could be my 28 or 24 handle
SP:SPX
by RealTima
20
Triangle broken to the downside, casious of VIX OPEX flowEven if the triangle is broken down, it still can spike up into tomorrow. watching 3680-83SPX. Im holding my swing short, will add if we see higher levels today. Quick ins and outs Main resistance is at 3798SPX, Support is not even close at 3565-70SPX and below, they are minor, weak. I think we will have a range bound day into tomorrow, cautious on both sides, even if I lean towards buying the dips today This bear market rally is weak and every one of them is getting weaker and weaker. There was no pain on the market, no heavy selling, no one is calling to their broker to sell their position as they all being told this was the low! Its coming though...
SP:SPX
by RealTima
8
ES the only bullish count I can come up withThis is the only bullish setup I can come up with if the price takes 3822ES The target is 3965, right where is the top of the trend channel is - Fits well with the fibs extensions To me the price has to gap up above today's am highs to have this pathway proven. Also wont rule out just a test of 3820-22ES or 3800-20SPX. I have also revised my SPX chart, see below, and it has to stick with the 3800 and reject for lower levels to be seen or it the move lower will be toasted. We are def in a window for a move lower/crash like or confirm the lows we have seen on Oct 2nd. I personally still in a lower lows to be seen camp and the low should come early Nov or can be stretched to Nov 21st. If we do start the move lower, it has to start tomorrow, Thursday the top!!! Im getting hit on weekly lotto puts due to sizing, I will do one more try tomorrow after OPEX and if we indeed see 3800 tested.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by RealTima
15
SPX can be at the begging of a very stip downtrend channelSmall disclaimer: - Im not calling for a crash, but expressing a high chance (in my personal opinion based on my own homework) scenario to play out within a month time frame! - When we are out of the crash window, I will reduce this possibility to bare minimum! For this scenario to play-out (not a trading advice, just a possibility), we need a daily close below 3450-55SPX, then its in a clear fall. - Invalidation point is a move above 3840-50SPX on closing basis. Then the whole pathway is a trash Perfect first cycle low early Nov, if not last day(s) of Oct and main cycle low for this year is on week 21st of Nov (+2 or -1 day). Supports are on the chart, again if it starts falling (which I think we will) soon. First big low should come on the 24th of Oct imo. Moon cycle crash window is from 20-24th. If it misses, then no crash and maybe we just bottom at 34 handle or 32 handle (my ideal target all year) max. Please keep in mind, that this is not my main pathway till 3450-55SPX is broken on daily level, must close below it, better for 2 days straight. I will be updating support levels on the go (if this plays out), but main support levels (lines) are on the chart. Will be updating more in this thread tomorrow with smaller timeframe charts
SP:SPX
by RealTima
7
SPX EOW Close ChartWell its a very bad close imo. Bullz have only one chance to hold todays close in B wave down and rally up to 3800 even! But if it instead (higher odds imo) we crash from the open, then my pathway will be - Down to 3400 - Bounce to 3500 - Down to my 3212 (better hold it) If 32 handle wont hold, we will see 2855SPX by 24th! Be ready! Im sure majority is not ready for this type of scenario! Also I think we bottom EOM or early Nov, how low only the GOD knows! Im short lots of SPY puts but will do ES and NQ short on Sunday after I see the opening reaction of the futures. Have a great weekend
SP:SPXShort
by RealTima
45
SPX/SPY Weekly Volatility Forecast 17-21 October 2022 SPX/SPY Weekly Volatility Forecast 17-21 October 2022 We can see that currently the volatility is around 4.44%, falling from 4.48% of the last week. At the same time, its currently place on the 90th percentile based on the ATR calculations. With this in mind, around this percentile, we can expect an average weekly movement from the open price of the candle of: In case of a Bullish movement : 2.54% In case of a Bearish movement : 2.7% With the current volatility point, we have a 24.3% probability that the end of the weekly candle is going close either above of below the next channel: TOP : 3751 BOT : 3430 At the same time, there is currently a 38% probability that we can touch the previous high of the weekly candle 3730 And there is a 66% probability that we can touch the previous low of the weekly candle of 3500 Lastly, currently the rating from the moving average is around -68% indicating a very bearish trend(and we can confirm this since november 2021)
CME_MINI:ES1!
by exlux