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Spx500forecast

SPX all eyes on 3721 number!Resistance is at 3725-30 now. Maj support on closing level today is 3721SPX! The price is below that number. So if we close below (and Im looking for a rally back to 3730 and fail) then we could see my 3580 as early as Monday! Next week supports are: - 3662 - 3636 - 3580 - 3540-45 ES next stop is at 3666! We are below all the possible support fib extensions, new lows are coming! How do you feel now about 5500 call (I know some of you watch my channel here), being wrong all year and not admitting it its a diagnosis! Dont get trapped going into the weekend, being in cash is a position too P.S. I got stopped on todays lotto calls, 50% cut, thats why its a lotto
SP:SPX
by RealTima
12
SPX SUMMER RALLY BREAKING DOWN? With the SPX rallying over 18% from trough to peak over the last few weeks it looks like the recent upward trend could be under threat. As we can see on the chart above price is threatening to breach the lower third standard deviation (-3SD) off the linear mean at 4058.16. Given the high central tendency of signal to revert toward the linear mean(Pearson’s R^2 = 0.92), a deviation this far to the edge of the regression channel is not insignificant. We can also see that our 1 day RSI has gone below its midline into bearish trend territory and our MACD has rolled over with signal exhibiting wide downside divergence at the mouth. These are not bullish signals. If SPX price action fails to bounce back into the channel next week and falls firmly below the 4K line for a couple days or touches down to the 3850 price region, either of those would be enough to shatter the recent rally from a structural perspective. (Not financial advice.)
SP:SPX
by Firewalker_Charts
1
SPX weekly end updateHi everyone, This one will be quick Its a weekly closing and I got both daily and weekly Major support at 3721-22SPX on closing level. - S2 is at 3709 - 100% extension off Aug 16 and Sep 12th highs is at 3680SPX We have Powell speaking at 2pm Eastern My trading plan for tomorrow: - currently short, both ES and NQ (ES entered at 3769.50, stop 10 points) - exit ES at 3936 - looking for a low before Powell, ideally in first couple of hours of the trading day - 3721-3709SPX and possible extension (less odds) 3680SPX (has a perfect 1.618 fib for the ES extension lower) - will buy lotto calls if we see second number - exit at the EOD ideally at 3770 level I will be entering with some lotto Monday puts if we get EOD rally and fail before the close Most important number is 3721SPX tomorrow! Closing below will bring 3660 and 3636SPX next week if not lower! There is a potential crash scenario on Monday if we get the rally into the close and fail to close on the highs. Have a good night!
SP:SPX
by RealTima
23
SPX tested the broken out trendline from the top, pushHere is last chance for the bulls to push into the close, levels to watch are 3802 and 3817 on closing level I have set a buy order at 83 with a tight stop (if it gets there again, will be a good r/r imo) Bull flagging Must close above 3786 at min for any bulls to have hope for another push to 3802-17 at min. My thoughts are either we see 3710-21 tomorrow am and rally into the 27th, or the opposite, we fail again tomorrow at 3817 and go down to 3720 and even 3680-36 by Tuesday
SP:SPX
by RealTima
19
SPX both supports broke down (added ES chart)We got my green open but it didnt really continue, I did few longs, still have one running in case its bottoming here But wont be surprised of bigger down days to come, 27th should mark some sort of a low in turn around Tuesday. I think we hit 3680 at min, be careful on the long side. The price is so weak cant even bounce much, means consolidation for lower levels. 3721 and 3636 are both maj supports to watch! (on closing level) Its a short the rip game till its not As you can see only ES is holding from falling apart
SP:SPX
by RealTima
Selling previous support on SPX.US500 - Intraday - We look to Sell at 3834 (stop at 3889) The medium term bias remains bearish. We can see no technical reason for a change of trend. A firmer opening is expected to challenge bearish resolve. Resistance is located at 3840 and should cap gains to this area. We look to sell rallies. Our profit targets will be 3701 and 3680 Resistance: 3840 / 4150 / 4320 Support: 3700 / 3280 / 2475 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by OANDA
3
SPX is at its support trendline off Sep 1st and 6th lowIt was a crazy day, as always after FOMC. Im expecting this move down to reverse completely and more by Fri. - Main resistance is at 4012-15SPX on weekly closing - Daily resistance is at 3802-17, 3850-55, 3895 and 3935 Tomorrows support (if the AHs price wont be reversed by the open) levels: - 3752-50 - 3721 - 3680 I expect 3721SPX holding strong on closing level and wont rule out an overshoot to 3680SPX SPX daily targets 3475-85SPX by Oct 28-31st ES support trendline hit - resistance is at 3825-35 for tonight If we open green or flat, it will be a bullish sign and I will be looking to enter with longs and ride it till at least over today's highs. Otherwise will be looking to buy at 3752 and 3721SPX tomorrow for a good size rally back to 3890-95 or so. No point to over trade this but trade the levels of importance Have a good night
SP:SPX
by RealTima
6
SPX one more big bear channel visualizationA slightly lower into my 3802-17 level will be a perfect hit of the lower trend channel. NQ already broke its on to the downside! Important to note A right shoulder fake rally will be perfect before it really drops into Oct/Nov lows Also dont be surprised if it breaks, then look for the retest of the broken trend channel from below P.S. Dont forget to like (click star-ship button) my posts, so it gets pushed up on TV for others to see as well. Thanks in advance!
SP:SPX
by RealTima
14
SPX possible H&S pattern targets 3500 or soI have changed the color theme on my chart and removed everything I could to make it clear for those who are having troubles reading my charts. Look what I just saw! Let me introduce a possible pathway after tomorrows FOMC announcement. On June 15th we have spike up and had a big range day. Then next day the price gaped down and made new lows. I see kinda similar pathway were we either make a new low in am - 3802-17 and maybe 3795, then rally up to 3925-65SPX level to make a right shoulder. (I prefer 3955-65 in case we see low of 3800 in am) Then the price can start moving fast and get below 3700 even by Friday, bottoming on the 27th in Tuesday turn around structure. That low can be as deep as 3500! I have fibs supporting this possible move down from 3680 to 3500 So my plan for tomorrow, exit shorts (partly) in am and go long for a FOMC squeeze. Then short the close and hold into the 27th low. Please do your own risk management as the price can be very volatile and will take both sides in stops (been there done that) 22nd is a reversal day of whatever day we get tomorrow and should bottom or top on the 27th. So if in fact we see selling after the FOMC, then I will be looking for a long at the end of the day instead of shorting the hole. - 3802-17, 3752 and 3721 are the support levels to watch! I will leave this right here. Feel free to share this update with anyone. P.S. (Sometimes Im getting interesting comments like my charts make people seizures (those people dont even follow me). Just want to make it clear, that Im not here to make it pretty, Im not selling a anything to anyone or make money out of my posts. I do post my updates just to share with those who will appreciate that work and use it for their own homework. So please no need to even follow or see my charts if you cant read them, that means you're very new to the markets and need to do more study and learn simple stuff like moving averages, support/resistance lines as well as trendlines etc. All my charts are working progress, please respect that as well as my time)
SP:SPXShort
by RealTima
34
SPX to hit 3802-17I missed am short, now waiting for 3802-17 to go long. Wont rule out a move down to 3750 tomorrow before FOMC The way I see it is that we will bottom today tomorrow and rally back to 3880+ after the FOMC decision, then completely erase the move by Fri. Should bottom on the 17th and rally up into EOM early Oct, then continue lower Dont try to trade this, very choppy designed to take both sides. I got chopped with stops here, now entered with short and exit at my 3802-17SPX level P.S. Dont forget to like (click star-ship button) my posts, so it gets pushed up on TV for others to see as well. Thanks in advance!
SP:SPXShort
by RealTima
6
SPX to retest broken trendline from the bottomMain resistance for the SPX is: - 3942 - 3952-60 Support cluster is still the same: - 3802-3817 - 3750-55 and much lower (check my last SPX update) Im currently long ES and some SPY calls and will be adding to my swing short NQ position tomorrow and ideally on Wednesday. - 3955 and 3975 are the 2 numbers where I will be adding to my short position. In case of a super bullish case (like the one in NQ going to 12700), next resistance level to short is: - 4025-35 So far Im looking for lower level, again please see my latest SPX update (link above) And I think there is one big move down is coming up very soon. Ideally we bottom on the 27-29th and rally hard into early Oct where we should see lower prices printed before this is over and another 11-14% rally starts Have a good night P.S. Dont forget to like (click star-ship button) my posts, so it gets pushed up on TV for others to see as well. Thanks in advance!
SP:SPX
by RealTima
4
SP500 direction for next days and weeks...Hello all, I would like to do some comparison here. On the LEFT side you can see chart pattern on 3D timeframe during the 2008 mortgage crisis in US. What happened? From TA perspective - we can see broadening descending wedge or channel where price was strongly rejected from white MA (green circle) - what happened next you can see on the chart = BEARISH SCENARIO. Meaning FED will rapidly increase interest rates in near future or we will have another conflict or whatever like this. I hope just for increasing interest rates. ON the RIGHT side you can see my price prediction - yellow line with the BULLISH SCENARIO BUT we have there the same chart pattern like we had in 2008. Very similar or same... so what we can expect? For bullish scenario FED must start print money again (quantitative easing). BUT i dont think so they can do it right now - because it will cause a higher inflation again... So just small recap of the chart on the RIGTH SIDE: From TA perspective - we can see broadening descending wedge or channel where price was strongly rejected from white MA (green circle) - we need buz pressure to not collapse like in 2008 (ABCDE) on the right chart... IF BEARISH SCENARIO comes out, we can see SP500 under 2500 - BUT this will be one of the biggest economic crisis ever... Do the FED really want it? I have some doubts here because Chinesse currency juan can be new number one currency if usd falls... I think we will see the result in next months... personally I think that downside is more likely to happen...not sure if really under 2500 but most likely under 3500... PEACE and have a great day Svarog
SP:SPX
by SvarogPerun
3
SPX Weekend quick updateI was busy all weekend, this update will be quick. Still seeing this as a bear market, well it is for the past 9 months wasnt it. The main trend is still down! Please note those purple lines are the unfilled gaps, will be gone each time the price will fill those, otherwise act as magnet to fill, depends on the trend Looking at the price action, I can see 1-2, 1-2 development (Im not an EWT pro or do I want to be at this point) to the downside and much lower levels into Oct/Nov low. Also think, that this bear market will merge into Q1 2023 and should bottom sometime in Apr/early May As for this upcoming week of Sep 19th: - Im looking for a day or 2 muted bounce and continue lower after the FOMC decision. - If we see the opposite, a drift lower into the FOMC decision, then I would be looking for a long right before the announcement. I think we will bottom this week on the 21st-22nd, or make a intraday low next week 27-29th. Friday price action wasnt what I expected and limited to the downside by holding 3850 level. I dont find that level important to hold and think its a low level of support at this point. The most important thing on Friday was this - the price gaped down below my 3880-86 support level, which was much stronger then 3850 level. So I think this can still get to 3802-17SPX early next week, ideally on Monday and then move up into a muted action to 3950-60SPX level and reverse lower from there. Main weekly resistance is 4155-60 with 4015-25 in the middle. Support levels: - 3802-17 - 3750-55 - 3735-40 - 3720 - below last number nothing but air till 3636 and my ideal target of 3580, 3550-55 and 3500 even. My main target for this move is at 3200-10SPX! And I think we will see lower into 2020 higher lows in 2023 Im looking to buy longs tomorrow in 3802-17 zone or just short 3950 zone. No need in over trading this but the levels of importance! Have a great weekend, do not over trade, this bear market will get both sides, wait for a good setup to take with higher R/R odds P.S. Dont forget to like (click star-ship button) my posts, so it gets pushed up on TV for others to see as well. Thanks in advance!
SP:SPX
by RealTima
17