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Spx500forecast

Watch for S1 to hold on closing level!S1 is right at first gap to fill 3831, can act as a very good support. So again, its a day when I will be buying longs, question is from what price. Ideally I buy at 3802-18 level, but might buy at higher price if I see that S1 holding into the close and no new lows. Please note Futs can always extend into AH's session DO NOT GET TRAPPED Today!!! Dont short this red whole today! P.S. Dont forget to like (click star-ship button) my posts, so it gets pushed up on TV for others to see as well. Thanks in advance!
SP:SPX
by RealTima
2
SPX Sep 16th updateThe price has broke down and Im waiting for 3880-86SPX to be lost. Ideally we gap down below 3880-86 and it becomes a resistance. Futs already down and below those numbers if convert to SPX. My pathway for tomorrow is to buy a gap down to 3802-18 for at least a day or 2 bounce. - There is nothing but air after 3880-86 is lost, all the way to the numbers above. - If we loose 3800, next support is not there till 3750-52SPX Im looking for a low in am and reversal into the close and Monday/Tue high On the other hand we held 3888 level today, close enough to my support zone, so if it gaps up, it could be quite a big squeeze imo. But I give low odds for the gap up scenario. Its a weekly closing, important numbers to watch are: - Weekly support is at 3720-22SPX - Next weekly support is at 3635-40SPX - Weekly resistance is at 4018-20SPX We should bottom next week, ideally at or after FOMC decision, then rally up in another bear market rally into second week of Oct and continue lower into Oct final low for this year. - Next week low is expected to hit 3750 or 3680SPX Final low I have is at 3580SPX. i was looking for 34-35 handle to get hit, it should get there sooner then later imo If it gets hit next week, then we will see 32 handle in Oct The trend is down till it's not! Have a good night, rest and get ready for tomorrow... P.S. Dont forget to like (click star-ship button) my posts, so it gets pushed up on TV for others to see as well. Thanks in advance!
SP:SPX
by RealTima
17
SPX Sep 15th mid day updateI was sleeping in today, no point to trade this market but hold swing short position. Mid Bollinger or 20MA crossed 110MA on daily, not a good sign for the bulls. MACD is still making new lows. This seems to get to 3680SPX by the FOMC decision or right after. Main resistance now is at 4030-45SPX Mid resistance is at 3970-85SPX and I think we wont get above on any test, like it came short yesterday. I will short 3970-85 level for a continuation of this move down So far its breaking down here to my eyes and should follow through soon. Main support is at 3880-86 now! On closing level I will be trying long at 3880-86SPX tomorrow am, but its OPEX day and all the quarterly hedges will be off the lines and this can unleash much bigger swings in both directions, but main direction is down. After the FOMC meeting 3680 should produce a good size bounce and ideally we see lower in Oct, 35-34 handle is very doable imo. So need to over trade this as it chops both sides!
SP:SPX
by RealTima
6
SPX quick updateI want quickly update the SPX chart. 2 scenarios: 1 - we gap down tomorrow 2 - we hold the lows and go up in am First scenario: Support is at 3885-86SPX And nothing till 3800-20 I would be looking for 3775 and ideally 3680 as the main targets before or buy 20-21st. Second scenario is we see 3970-85SPX tomorrow and sell off into above outlined numbers by 20-21st. Or we make a higher low and stretch to 4152-55 and ideally above 4200+ to a potential 4295-4300 by same 20-21st. 4145-60 is a very strong resistance! So all eyes are on the overnight or pre-market action. Breaking today's lows will be bearish and we closed below my 3955 and especially 3935SPX today, so I favour a gap down in this case. Holding 3885-86 level tomorrow am, will be a good sign for a potential reversal, below is air till 3800-20SPX I have positions on both sides and I personally would love to see an extension up into 4155 and even 4295SPX zone before the real crash happens. Looking for lower levels regardless of the price and ideally we wont get there in one straight line. Im looking for a low in Oct and that low should be a good buying opportunity going into EOY Have a good night P.S. Dont forget to like (click star-ship button) my posts, so it gets pushed up on TV for others to see as well. Thanks in advance!
SP:SPX
by RealTima
42
SPX MACD hook formation - warned Monday amI did warn about this possible outcome early Monday am All we need is to gap down tomorrow (which has a high probability now as we closed below 3955 and especially 3935) Then the downside targets will be 3775 and even 3680. It can even stretch to 3450 if Jun lows are broken. Only a gap up tomorrow can save from this pathway for now. Dont pay attention to the chart, but the MACD P.S. Dont forget to like (click star-ship button) my posts, so it gets pushed up on TV for others to see as well. Thanks in advance!
SP:SPX
by RealTima
13
SPX faile to even touch 4k zone - 3955SPX is nextSo far so good for lower levels - 3945-55 must hold and I think it will not go lower today. If we close at the lows, there is a potential of gaping down below 3935 tomorrow, which will make 3885 next target. Main target on the downside to hold is 3800-20 as a must hold on any test. Below 3800 we will see 3720 and 3635-40!!! Watching the close, riding short from 3992SPX P.S. Dont forget to like (click star-ship button) my posts, so it gets pushed up on TV for others to see as well. Thanks in advance!
SP:SPXShort
by RealTima
16
SPX can extend to a higher high before the 21st or fail hardIts all about 4125-35, 4150-60 and 4202SPX now. All 3 are resistance levels! Support is at 4085-90 and 4025, below it we should see 3955SPX Im not sure about the exact pathway, so my game plan is to short 4145-60 and 4202 zone. If we breakout I will flip for a trip back to 4285-92 and even over 4300SPX Please note, that this can even extend to 4425 just to screw everyone out on both sides and then sell hard. So regardless of the situation, I will be short (if we make a new high) or long (if we make a higher low) on the 20-21st or before the FOMC. Ideally we spike up to 4125-35 and even 4145-60SPX tomorrow and sell off into Fri OPEX low. That low should produce a good setup for a few days rally before the FOMC decision on the 21st. One certain thing is that the Oct low should provide a good buy and hold setup going into EOY high. Ideally we make a new low in Oct and then higher low in Nov (before the Midterms) and then off we go together with Santa. Jan (in case of the above scenario) should mark the high and then we should see lows in Apr. Levels of importance tomorrow: - 4145 - 4160-62 Closing above those levels will get us back to 4195-4205SPX by Fri. Im going to short tomorrow's gap for the crap scenario. Ideally we hit 4125-35 or even 4145-60 in am and crap from there. Have a good night P.S. Dont forget to like (click star-ship button) my posts, so it gets pushed up on TV for others to see as well. Thanks in advance!
SP:SPX
by RealTima
7
SPX possible pathway to min 3720 and ideal 3450!I want to present a very possible pathway in case MACD will make a hook like turn, which is very bearish! I saw this many times, when everyone is cheering bullish and looking for that golden cross and all they get is a the hook formation (zoomed in and outlined at the bottom of the chart) So far MACD is still way below 0, RSI is at 50 level and could make a lower high. We have touched 50% today and one more push to 4150 zone for 61.8 (see the retracement fibs on the chart) is what I would expect to hold for that MACD hook formation. - 4090 is the support now, - 4125-35, 4145 and 4160 resistance So stay alert, have stops if trading on the long side! BTW all the pink lines are the unfilled gaps P.S. Dont forget to like (click star-ship button) my posts, so it gets pushed up on TV for others to see as well. Thanks in advance!
SP:SPX
by RealTima
12
SPX is very close to my first target outlined for a while nowI missed most of the day, Im waiting for my 4125-35 test to short and exit some longs I have running since last week (those were under the water at some point, now nicely in green) Want to see some pullback into the close and then spike up tomorrow to hit the target zone for a fakeout move. High tomorrow and low on the 16th, then we should rally to 4200 and even 4285-91SPX by or before 21st FOMC meeting 4085 is now support! This chart is from 6th of Sep P.S. Dont forget to like (click star-ship button) my posts, so it gets pushed up on TV for others to see as well. Thanks in advance!
SP:SPX
by RealTima
2
SPXSPX Look how interesting. After this crisis that we are experiencing with the corona virus, several opportunities have arisen to buy assets over sold and giving a great asymmetry that is ridiculous. But, everything is not flowers, the government had to print money like never before, causing the dollar to depreciate and inflaming the consumer price index. Making it so that later (nowadays) I had to raise the interest rate. And that reflects everything on the chart. On the chart, we see a bullish continuation pattern. But for the moment he is under. It will probably only break this line when the US shows interest rate easing, causing investors to start exiting their bonds that are bad at the end and going back to equities, when this happens again, the bulls will boom and will start to dominate the market again. Relative to this pattern on the chart it is called the descending megaphone. It tends to widen a lot when the market turns pessimistic. An example of this is the Nikkei index. It started to widen in the 1991's and only came out in 2013. And if we analyze the past, we see the pattern repeating itself again today, but not in a smaller size.
SP:SPXLong
by DuhNT
2
SPX gapped up, no Fri sell off repeate, main support is at 4025We didnt get a move down off am highs as I was hoping for, gap up above 4020-35 happen, so the move lower is off the table. Now 4025 and 4015 are 2 main supports to hold for next week to continue advance. 4085 is next target. This still can be a fakeout and if we close below am open, and especially below 4015SPX it will be bearish and I will be looking for 3925 to test early next week before push to higher levels. I got stopped on half short from overnight and holding the other half for the fakeout scenario. Will hedge at 4025 and 4015 level (will cut if we close below 4015) So far the pathway up is in play, I dont expect much lower till 4125-35 test and ideally 4200 P.S. Dont forget to like my posts, so it gets pushed up on TV for others to see as well. Thanks in advance!
SP:SPX
by RealTima
7
SPX weekly closing day - Fri updateHi everyone! Im still battling with timing on the high and potential crash this/next month. We either bottom this month, we have interest rate decision on the 21st and then up into Oct 3rd week where the turn suppose to happen and last into EOM or even Nov. My timing showing a low in Oct/Nov. There is a chance for us to see 4425! but the lows we just had must hold, then that high will be early Oct. But there are several supper strong resistances to overtake: - 4085 - 4125-35 - 4308 - 4385SPX My fib calculation as well as previous calculations support this possible pathway, then the Oct/Nov low will be in 3240SPX zone!!! - There is also a 61.8 retracement at 3195SPX off 2020 Mar lows! - This move up will be a perfect C wave up of the bigger B wave in case we made A high in Aug (I have this pathway outlined in green count) My main count is still to hold 4125-35 and ideally stretch to 4200SPX before serious selling into EOM. - I have Panic month on Oct in SPX and Sep for the DOW. Interesting thing is SPX had a panic month on Sep as well, but cycles have moved it to Oct now. But I want to be open for a potential screw up of the bears and making the bulls believe we are on the pathway to ATHs (again). That alone will screw up so many! Ideally we make a higher monthly close in Sep and intraday high early Oct, then the cycles will match with the turn in Oct where we can have a huge sell into MidTerms. - Then we should rally into EOY to do a damage control and top out in Jan. Im still battling about Santa Rally as this year is completely different from others. - Also energy and food crisis in Europe might put a lot of pressure into the markets, unless there is a bigger war erupted and the European money will flow into the US. Which I do expect to happen next year or 2024... So lets talk about tomorrow, so I can go to sleep: Today's close was into the wall with last 10 min pump, that usually ends up in following day being red, at least first part of it. Also closed below intraday highs = not bullish. - Needs a gap up above 4020 (and ideally 4030) or we should see lower levels tomorrow. Im short into tomorrow from the close and some from AHs highs, half position. Last few weeks we dump big on Friday's, will it repeat tomorrow? My bet is yes. Tomorrow is a turning day! Ideally we see a higher low tomorrow and reverse hard into last hour or 2 of the day and never look back, that would setup a move for much higher next week Its VIX OPEX on Wed, triple witching week 200MA here on 4h chart is the ideal target for this move! - Or 4125-35 and ideal at 4200+ for the top of this move this month Tomorrow resistance is at: - first resistance 4020SPX - Main resistance to take 40350SPX - 4085SPX is the closing resistance for higher levels early next week The only real support I have now is low 3800 cluster, if we test 3885-3900 again it will slice it imo. So lets see if they can push it up and save the day before and at least the OPEX and the interest rate decision on the 21st. Have a good night! P.S. Dont forget to like my posts, so it gets pushed up on TV for others to see as well. Thanks in advance!
SP:SPX
by RealTima
8
SPX Sunday email updateHere is my SPX update I sent out to those who are on my email list: Ideally we see lower open on Sunday and maybe Monday and then push higher into the cash open on Tuesday (we already got the first part), that would be bullish. Also, I wont rule out a move down to 3840-50ES on Monday and 12k NQ and reverse to open green on Tuesday, that would be very bullish imo. - NQ must hold 12055 and the ES 3915 and 3905 on any test (ideally it wont test it at all!) - Going below Fri, Thu lows will be very bearish and the bullish count will be buried. There is still a huge potential of a crash from the oversold conditions. But I hope the big boys will lift it up again into OPEX time and distribute and sell more before the big rug pull I'm expecting in Sep/Oct time. We have met my first target on the upside to the penny, straight into the circle I put early on the chart early July. - This is the chart (link below) from Jul 17th (just click the play button on the chart from your desktop or laptop). As you noticed I have not changed my main pathway even once! In fact I haven't changed my main market view since end of Nov of the 2021 (was one month early on the SPX when NDX did hit the high that month)! I still believe we are not going to 5500 like some others do for the whole year and hope I saved many accounts from being blown up on the long side. At least for those who listened to me in Dec/Jan. I will be wrong at some point on the bigger picture and will reevaluate when I see signs of the changes, otherwise its playing out well this year so far - The market do test both sides and it seems the high came earlier by less then 2 weeks. - My main goal is to figure the low area and the timing for the upcoming lows this fall, as I don't want to get trapped on the short side and wait for "one more low" before the Santa Rally (if we even going to have one this year). But Im expecting the next high to come in Jan and turn down to Apr final low of this first big Bear leg down (I call it the big A) On SPX simple chart, you can see that we are in the thinnest part of the cloud and usually its an easy breakdown/break up zone. We really have to hold that 3895-3910SPX zone for the markets to push higher from here. The main resistance for Tuesday is at 4025-30SPX! If we gap up above it, then the next resistance is at 4060 and 4080. 4015 will become the main support! I'm not sure if its doable to have a 100 points gap up on Monday, but it has to gap up above 3960SPX! - If the open will be flat its not bullish and it can sell again to make new lows into 3850 zone. I'm very skeptical of this price action, its very weird imo and there is something behind it, which can shake the markets hard, both directions, but mainly to the downside. All the surprises are to the downside now. My main target for this move up (if we have bottomed) is 4125-35SPX, that would be a very strong resistance to take. Above it, it can stretch back to 4250 and even 4285SPX. So again, SPX MUST take 4025 level and then hold 4015! Only then I will be looking for those higher levels I mentioned above. Enjoy rest of your long weekend!
SP:SPX
by RealTima
8
SPX must take 3997 to continue higherVery important to get above 3992-97 tomorrow to continue this move up! If we reject it in am, very dangerous sign. Ideally we go up into that target, then retrace and go above 4k level. The price penetrated my support cluster zone (3910-50) and (very important) closed above all 4 supports we broke today, its bullish. The issue is, we need a confirmation and trade above Thursday close. Also the 3992-97 resistance zone! Last time we failed that test, the rest is history. So tomorrow numbers are going to be an important market mover imo, Projected high is on the 5th, low is on the 7th and high is on the 12-13th, ABC like move up is what Im expecting Main resistance is at 4025SPX and the 4076-80SPX Very important - the surprise is on the downside! This has a potential to crash hard, have stops! Have a good night
SP:SPX
by RealTima
25