SPX Sunday email updateHere is my SPX update I sent out to those who are on my email list:
Ideally we see lower open on Sunday and maybe Monday and then push higher into the cash open on Tuesday (we already got the first part), that would be bullish.
Also, I wont rule out a move down to 3840-50ES on Monday and 12k NQ and reverse to open green on Tuesday, that would be very bullish imo.
- NQ must hold 12055 and the ES 3915 and 3905 on any test (ideally it wont test it at all!)
- Going below Fri, Thu lows will be very bearish and the bullish count will be buried. There is still a huge potential of a crash from the oversold conditions. But I hope the big boys will lift it up again into OPEX time and distribute and sell more before the big rug pull I'm expecting in Sep/Oct time.
We have met my first target on the upside to the penny, straight into the circle I put early on the chart early July.
- This is the chart (link below) from Jul 17th (just click the play button on the chart from your desktop or laptop). As you noticed I have not changed my main pathway even once! In fact I haven't changed my main market view since end of Nov of the 2021 (was one month early on the SPX when NDX did hit the high that month)! I still believe we are not going to 5500 like some others do for the whole year and hope I saved many accounts from being blown up on the long side. At least for those who listened to me in Dec/Jan.
I will be wrong at some point on the bigger picture and will reevaluate when I see signs of the changes, otherwise its playing out well this year so far
- The market do test both sides and it seems the high came earlier by less then 2 weeks.
- My main goal is to figure the low area and the timing for the upcoming lows this fall, as I don't want to get trapped on the short side and wait for "one more low" before the Santa Rally (if we even going to have one this year). But Im expecting the next high to come in Jan and turn down to Apr final low of this first big Bear leg down (I call it the big A)
On SPX simple chart, you can see that we are in the thinnest part of the cloud and usually its an easy breakdown/break up zone. We really have to hold that 3895-3910SPX zone for the markets to push higher from here.
The main resistance for Tuesday is at 4025-30SPX! If we gap up above it, then the next resistance is at 4060 and 4080. 4015 will become the main support!
I'm not sure if its doable to have a 100 points gap up on Monday, but it has to gap up above 3960SPX!
- If the open will be flat its not bullish and it can sell again to make new lows into 3850 zone.
I'm very skeptical of this price action, its very weird imo and there is something behind it, which can shake the markets hard, both directions, but mainly to the downside. All the surprises are to the downside now.
My main target for this move up (if we have bottomed) is 4125-35SPX, that would be a very strong resistance to take. Above it, it can stretch back to 4250 and even 4285SPX.
So again, SPX MUST take 4025 level and then hold 4015! Only then I will be looking for those higher levels I mentioned above.
Enjoy rest of your long weekend!
