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Spx500forecast

Last night updateCopy pasting of what I sent last night to those who are on my email list: It seems the market is going to test 3965-80 zone after all. I was expecting it first part of July but it took time. So some "wave slapping": - My target is 4030, it can top at 4013-18 but it doesn't really matter - A wave (around 25-26th of Jul) - Down to higher lows into 37xx zone (with possible overshoot into 36xx zone), where 3696-75 fits better - B wave (around 15th of Aug) - C wave up into 4330 and the 200MA should be around that number when we should approach it, perfect fit for the count (late Aug, early Sep) So the whole move should look like the move from Feb and Mar lows. Volatility is set to rise from the 25th into early Aug We have only 1 gap to close and 5 below, I think all will get filled SPX gaps to close: - 4017.81 - 3830.81 - 3800.91 - 3790.14 - 3674.85 Weekly resistance level is at 4090SPX Monthly resistance level is 3950.50SPX I do expect to close the month below the last number, closing above could shif the bearish outlook on longer term view. So far I do think we will hit 32 handle at min with ideal erase the whole move of 2020 low and even retesting those lows. That would be the most bearish scenario and could last into 2024 instead of Q1 2023 as Im expecting now. The level of importance tomorrow is - 3918 and 3911 on closing level. Below 3880 is the most important number, below it we should fall back into high 3700 territory. So I expect this move to turn tomorrow and have 2 days correction and one more push into the 25-26th to finish up this move and fall into Aug 15th (or so) low. Then we should get a non stop rally Mar like back to the 4300 handle.
SP:SPX
by RealTima
16
SPX Daily quick updateI didnt have much time for a research this weekend, it's our family trip we are on and I have no time to trade at all. As promised, do a quick weekend update, will do a broader one for those who are on my email list (if I find time later today) Next week most important resistance is 3918-20SPX on a daily closing level and 4090SPX on weekly closing. 4090 is the dev bull bear line now, where the main resistance is down to 4300 from 4425 Looking back at the last year same week opening, Im kinda expecting the same with a big gap down and bottom on the 20-21st. Or it can stretch to 3900 (smaller degree resistance) and 3918-20SPX. With making lower highs and lows since Jun rally of the lows, I think we have one more unfinished flush to go. I dont rule out a move up to 3900-20 on Monday/Wednesday to top this weak move off the Jun lows, then more weakness into EOM before a significant rally in Aug. It could be a move down to 3660-70 or a new low to 3500, the timing is running out for the later number. I have 20-21st as dates of importance, so either a low (if we fall apart on Monday) or a high (follow through on Monday). I will be exiting most of my short if its a low and the opposite if its a high. Again I have mixed signals, so cant be certain at this moment, but Im in lotto puts on to of my main fut short position, just in case we get a last year repeat. Then the rally up into Aug/early Sep high and then we will get a real move down to finish this first wave of the bigger bear decline we have going into the 2023 and even possibly 2024. Something suppose to happen in Sep which will produce a crash and Oct should cap the bottom. Then we will have a nice damage control/flight of capital from EU move up into the EOY and continue lower into Mar/Apr of 2023. P.S. I doe expect the whole rally of 2020 lows to be erased with a possibility of seeing the 2020 lows next year Enjoy your Sunday!
SP:SPX
by RealTima
16
Holding 3830-45 will be bullishI think the move up is not over yet, needs to hold 3830-45 (45 is the gap fill zone), below will get us down to test 3730-60 zone again. 3730 is the main support at the moment. All my resistance numbers from July 7th post are active! Please note that the C&H formation is still out there and it needs to get above 3945SPX to trigger the rally to 4225+ There is also a possible W formation in play with the right V low to hit my main target 3555-50 with a possible stretch to 3500. So quite hard place to be swing long or short. day trade is the answer for now. There is a great long setup is coming soon for the big rally in Aug. Ideally of my target zone. Thinking of today's low to hold and rally up into mid week before a good size sell off down to 3730-60 at min. Im traveling today/tomorrow, wont be on much to update.
SP:SPX
by RealTima
5
SPX longer term updateThis is a quick update with levels of importance. I will update in more detail those who are on my email list, cant do it all. So I think we will see a really this week and I have 2 targets - 3880 and 3960-90SPX Both are good for the lower lows to come sometime mid of the month, ideal bottom target is July 14-18th. The top in 3960-90 zone actually better fit with expected by me 3500 test. 3500 is a very important level and failure of that level will get us to 3200 very quickly. Off that expected low, Im expecting a good size rally, maybe a month or month an half (into end of Aug) all the way to 4300 and maybe even 4425SPX. From there we will see either 3200 or 2900-2800 (depends on the July bottom 3500 and 3200 respectfully) sometime in Oct. That low alone will be a one big A wave of the correction and the bigger B wave will go up into Jan and final low might come in Mar of 2023, unless its really extended and we wont see the low till 2024. But its too far out to speculate at this point. So my this week trading plan is to exit longs at 3880 and it taken out re-enter to ride to 3960-90 zone and then I will be naked short for the trip down to 3500 zone. If we lucky to see 3750-60 tomorrow, then I will be long for the trip to 3880 at min.
SP:SPX
by RealTima
3
SPX not a bullish looking to my eyesThis is not a bullish close to my eyes, the whole day was just a consolidation. The only good thing I see is holding 3800, so if we gap below 3799 overnight, then we will see 3760 next. Mid support is at 3780, low support is at 3734 Next support is not till 3662 and below! Looking for that low to be bought and rally into Fri close. Note this - closing below 3992 on monthly level will get us to 3200 next!!! So very important day tomorrow. And from where we are now its quite a distance to close above that number! More pain is coming into the market next month! It seems that the rally will come after the July low. Im still looking at 4300+ but want 3500 to get hit first P.S. There is a higher chance of seeing 3662SPX then 3992SPX, we are really at the no mans land now, pick you side 50/50 here. I would prefer lower first and run to 4017-20SPX after. Its all about gaping down below 3799 and gaping up above 3840SPX tomorrow
SP:SPX
by RealTima
6
ES is at Bull/Bear lineES is at Bull/Bear line, hit 110 MA and 50% retracement. A real test of who is in charge is right here. As well as ABC move up with perfect 100% extension hit on the SPX close. Jumping over the 110MA and test from the above will be a good sign of continuation of this move. There is also a possible fakeout to watch. A perfect place for a pause of this move up and some retracement. An ABC move up to 4017SPX or so is what Im looking for with A being done and we get to test 3730-40 zone before the continuation higher. Ideally we see the whole move going into the 4th of July weekend! Im slightly short as of close, kinda risky trade as this can just continue extending to 1.618 Will send a separate email with more charts to those who are on the email list. Enjoy your weekend, lots of volatility is coming after the 28th, so prepare for huge moves both ways
CME_MINI:ES1!
by RealTima
12
SPX must close the gap or it will be very bearish imoSo far so good from yesterday's update, we gaped up and the longs must be very profitable to those who followed. Must close the gap today or Monday, otherwise this could be a stop run and the target will be 3585-90SPX (fibs agree if we top here) Otherwise another breakout on Monday would do it and the main resistance is at 3970-90SPX, which will be heavy shorted by me Watching the close of the gap now, which is super close @ 3900.16
SP:SPX
by RealTima
7