SPX is on the way to 3885SPXWell we blow all of the supports I was looking to hold. I got also stopped on my NQ short at 12330Jun right before the move. ES was short but covered at 54.
Im seating on my hands and looking for 3885-89SPX to hit to go long.
We should bottom before the FED next week and rally hard to 4300 into July 4th, maybe even 4425SPX
4215SPX will the be the main target on that move up.
Supports on the SPX are 3929, 3908 and 3885-89SPX
Weekly support which must hold is 3853SPX, closing below will get us to low 3800 and ultimately to 3775SPX.
My view is that we will hold 3885SPX, but dont rule out a test 0f 3850.
Ideally we just blast from am lows and finish the move down on Monday/Tuesday.
Spx500forecast
SPX 2 pathwaysIm watching 2 numbers - 3980 and 3950SPX (there is 4008 as a smaller degree support, so far held AHs in futs)
We should hold the am low and rally um into Monday high.
2 pathways:
- either we get to test 4077 (after 4008 or 3980test in am) and decline lower into Monday to 3950
- or just blast up into the 13th high, can stretch to 4215SPX for a fake out move I'm looking for
SPX support is at 4077 and 62, Im leaning bullish from the openIm long here, tight stop, next long will be at 77 and 62 respectively.
The bulls are running out of time to push higher, the max Im expecting is 4215 or so test as a fakeout move and then a full retracement down to 3885.
Hard market to trade, unless you trade the range, which is not easy as well. Probably will stay in one till the DEF meeting
SPX is set a last test lower before a rally upSo far so good from the other day update.
We should test 4090SPX at the open with ideal test of 4077 and 4062SPX and hold today.
Holding 4060-75SPX level will produce a good support for a move up to 4215-25SPX and ideally all the way to 4300.
After the next high this week or early next, will set us up for a move down to 3885SPX test!
Only after 3885SPX tested, we will have a nice multi week rally all the way to 4425-45SPX and possibly even 4600.
Dont get trapped!
SPX short term is bearish, medium term is bullish!SPX is simple here, short 4165-80 Zone, buy low 3900 for the move up to 4300!
Im looking for a bottom early in a week, ideally by Tuesday and move up to at east 4215SPX and ideally to 4300 before a test of 3885-90SPX
On the other hand we could see 3885-90SPX next week or pre-Fed and move up to 4300+ into early July high
Buy zone for tomorrow with stops!
- 4060-65SPX
- 4055SPX light level of support
- 3927; 3908SPX
- 3885-90SPX is the main buy zone
- 3850 and 34 must hold on any try or it falls apart (main support, not expected to get hit any time soon)
Short
- 4175-70SPX and 4215-25, no short above 4225, next target is 4300
S&P 500 longs?After a bullish breakout above a strong, weekly trend line(in yellow) and a previous lower high, S&P 500 is surely showing bullish signs.
A small LTF consolidation has formed at the retest of these keylevels, a strong bullish continuation willnbe expected if an impulsive bullish break of the consolidation occurs.
If u found this, remotely helpful please drop a like and a quick sub.
SPX ready for Y to 3219Im tracking SPX Elliott Waves and SPX is about to close a Flat ABC (yellow). Next targets are 3582, 3220, 3002 and even 2633 is possible. Also Fed should announce new Rates hikes... everything is sync to present new oopportunies lower.
Cycle Wave 4 top entry fibs are
in between
0.3 - 3573 and
0.5 2743
SPX mid term look - pushing higher into the 6-7th of JunTodays close must hold 3990-4000 on closing level! Closing below will bring much lower levels in Jun. Im not in the camp of the price falling that much in one day, but something to watch in case it happens.
4305SPX is the main resistances now
Resistance - 4160-70; 4208SPX (must hold for continuation lower)
- Low target for tomorrow 4105-10SPX - Buy if seen in am, dont buy if we see higher first
- 4030-35SPX Main buy point,
- 3850 and then 3834 zone is the maj support zone
Buy zone for tomorrow with stops!
- 4105-10SPX
- 4030-35SPX expect it to hold and press higher
- 3880-90 is the main buy zone
- 3850 and 34 must hold on any try or it falls apart (main support, not expected to get hit any time soon)
Short
- 4165-70SPX and 4215-25, no short above 4225, next target is 4300
- Low (intraday) was on the 12th;
- Long from 3855-65SPX zone (email was sent when the price was at 3867-68SPX)
- rally for a week or 2 back to 4150-4205 SPX, retest of 3870-80 level and then main target of 4300 (9+%) by July 4th weekend,
- Ideally extend to 4425SPX (4300 main resistance on the way up) summer rally target - 110MA
- Another but low odds stretch is at 4465-4505 and 4600SPX
Larger ABC pathway down into Oct low or more of the year is in play imo Final target in 3000-3200SPX zone
Potential 5 waves down is forming! Next mid Jun low can be lower low! Have to be careful with sizing
SPX Planned Formation Update 5/23/22Right now we are experiencing the early stages of a big breakdown on the SPX
I say this based on the formation provided, which has even been produced on a smaller scale for observation on the SPX chart
A break down like this will be disastrous, but not the end of the world
The formation provides bottom points along the dot come bubble, 08 crisis and what is yet to come.
The Aptiv chart shows also a great representation of this within the Fibonacci circle, with a big extension (similar to that on SPX) leading to big downfalls to complete the broadening wedge pattern
I have made charts of this in the past please check them out
Above is the smaller formation VS the larger formation we can see on the Monthly timeframe
Above is the original post
SPX Updated Thoughts 5/19/22I am continuing my bearish sentiment on SPX for now.
Most importantly on this chart is the dotted trendline that shows a support line converting into a resistance line where we are currently
I believe this will lead to bearish results and respect given to the solid downtrend line, finding support once hitting 0.618
SPX500 likely to continue sell-offHey tradomaniacs,
SPX500 is about to re-test a very important resistance-zone which can provide bearish confluence and so another sell-off.
So far fundamentals are still pretty hawkish which should not be good for equities, especially since Jerome admitted it might be painfull to "softland" the economy.
However, previous upmoves were probably just a result of an oversold market as the volume has been very thin and moment not very convincing.
Good hance to short soon imo!
What do yu think?
SPX Should be the bottomed then head to 6k's next couple years Sitting on a trendline from 2007, if we switch to linear it's a little lower, so possible there is one more low but think this should be it. Then we get a 1998 style last horrah up to 6k's where we run for the hills, at least my current plan.
S&P 500 inverse Head and Shoulders Chart PatternWe are on the daily timeframe and we can see that historically buying the S&P index on RSI lower than 30 is an opportunity.
Current S&P 500 PE Ratio is decent: 20.34
Min: 5.31 (Dec 1917)
Max: 123.73 (May 2009)
I have 2 scenarios:
1. Inverse head and shoulders chart pattern with a price target of $4900 by the end of the year.
2. Worst case scenario: bull trap at $4150 an retracement to the pre-pandemic level of $3390. I tend not to believe this scenario because of the too low price per earnings ratio of the S&P.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
Weekend Update: Friday's Rally Held Into The CloseDue to plans this weekend I'm writing my weekend updates early for my followers
Aristotle is quoted as having said. "It is the mark of an educated mind to be able to entertain a thought without accepting it."
I entertain thoughts of alternative patterns constantly, but always rely on a primary count to follow through first and foremost. But with Fridays late strength...and by strength I mean NOT tanking before the weekend which would have been the easy way out for traders on a Friday afternoon....my BLUE Alternative and my BLACK Primary Counts have become equally probable in my opinion.
Does Friday's session change my perspective on making new lows. No. Not yet. I say not yet because I want to remain agnostic to one gyrations. The pattern simply does not look complete without a thrust down to new lows. However I will not rule out we go slightly higher before lower lows. On the chart I have a region called NO MAN"S LAND. This is an area if we can rally to can turn into an ending diagonal that would ultimately reconcile in the target box...but would just take time. The loss of positive divergence on the daily chart leaves many possibilities to how we bottom but NML makes things more complex. Over 4320 and I can no longer be sensibly looking for lower lows unless we rally to 4500-4600 and top in a B wave before we truly crash down.
I encourage each of my followers to study my chart above. BLUE and BLACK are equally probabilistic. Whereas NML kind of takes the simple and screws that up.
I favor the simple (low 3700's next week) , until it becomes no longer sensible.
Best to All,
Chris
Evening Update: OML - SP500, then it's champagne till 5200I'm going to start with more of a micro view to show you we are about to bottom.
Now, if you're watching Fast Money on CNBC or Reading Barons, you're not going to agree with a thing I'll write tonight regarding the SP500. But this market rally ship is about to sail. With or without you.
This is my first regular post on the SP500. I plan on doing an evening update Monday through Thursday...and then a weekend update.
Major wave III of 3 completed on January 4th, 2022 and since then we've been consolidating in a wave IV (which is almost done). Wave 5 of C of IV which is my primary count is represented in black arrows. Purple count is my ALT but at this moment still probable.
With OML we should be bottoming in the intermediate term. I don't want to get ahead of myself but the 3950 to 3881 level looks like a high probable area.
Tomorrow is Friday so no evening update. I'll post a weekend update.
Best to All,
Chris
S&P500 - Quick Chart AnalysisFor what it's worth, I'm dropping a very basic analysis of the current price action for S&P500. It seems that the price is resting on the middle trend line of the descending channel.
The risk-takers might want to open a long order at the current level of $4,150 with a target at $4,400 and a stop loss below the recent lowest low, which is $4,060.
I personally will be trading with the trend and have an order set up at $4,400 to short the index. The stop loss is slightly above that level.