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Spx500forecast

SPX's Deviation from 200W MA since inception's day 1957-weeklyHey guys what's up This is a weekly study VS. daily i did last time. I am including all the data here so you can copy, share or edit it on Microsoft apps. feel free to reuse or redistribute all my work to our trading view community or out side it. March's low is most likely a fresh new cycle to say the least " believe it or not" with out bias you would come to this conclusion one way or another and you should accept if before time proof that for you. (even if we get big corrections this is how financial markets behave : -) ) Moreover i probably did allot of mistakes here and there, missed allot of important details ... but i did everything with the best to my ability : -) wish you all the best. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Summery 11 times : Green count . Above 50 54% of pullbacks single digits 46 % double digits correction very close margin to favor one over the other. All deviations above 50 : ----------------------------- Deviation Pullbacks/correction 54.84 13.08 57.25 7.17 61.99 22.39 59.53 13 61.78 7.35 60.42 34.52 54.78 8.77 55 9.83 crash came for less 57 7 58 10.59 56.33 4.62 ****************************************************** Summery 11 times : Blue count. 40-40.99 46 % single digits pullbacks 54 % double digits corrections All Deviation 40-49.99 : ------------------------------------ 47.29 49.94 2000 crash 46.11 10.05 48.98 10.29 43.78 5.96 41.79 10.03 46.15 9.12 46.07 5.32 47.50 21.46 crash of 1957 43 3.52 43 6.82 43 5.9 ******************************************************** Summery 21 times : Orange count 30-30.99 76 % single digits pullbacks & 24 double digits corrections - pullback. That’s a huge jump from the 40s. All deviation 30-30.99 : ------------------------------------------- 30.38 10.55 32.61 11.84 33.61 5.16 33.27 9.84 34.60 4.35 34.63 6.67 34.73 6.03 30.65 4.82 31.37 4.81 31.37 4.81 32.83 7.52 37.74 10.90 39.74 5.33 33.19 4.11 34.17 5.58 30.23 8.48 37.05 7.53 33.05 14.71 37.21 26.44 33.38 7.79 30.20 6.10 ************************************************************* Summery 47 times : Dark Green count 20.20.99 71 % single digits Pullbacks 29 % double digits corrections All deviation 20-20.99 27 8.9 20.46 8.27 29.12 35.52 covid crash 21 5.46 22.86 6.80 22.58 7.63 27.76 20.21 24.38 3.56 27.73 6.82 25 Nothing happened 20 2.95 20 2.99 21.16 14.37 within a pullback 29.64 15.09 27.54 8.90 25.59 10.94 24.34 57.72 2007 crash 25.16 11.86 23.05 6.84 21.72 8.08 20.55 9.73 22.43 5.36 21.76 4.80 20.97 3.43 21.08 6.67 27.70 6.83 25.41 6.60 25.29 5.59 25.16 20.33 28.12 11.30 23.19 9.24 27.62 4.03 23.50 8.98 25 49.95 crash of 1973 20.25 37.36 crash of 1969 23.90 23.70 crash of 1966 24.20 4.39 24.97 10.94 N.h 24.35 3.33 N.h 24.17 4.78 25 4.19 23.51 4.47 27.54 29.27 crassh of 1962 25.19 3.90 27.83 14.06 25 3.95 24 4.39 *********************************************************** Summery 25 times : Purple count 10-19.99 72 % signal digits Pullbacks 28 % double digits. All deviations 10-10.99 19 1.74 18 1.94 16.5 5 14.64 6.08 15.93 4 17.04 21.58 17.39 6.22 15.65 7.30 14.88 4.45 14 7.27 19.93 21 12.85 11.68 14.147 15.12 10 8.10 14.89 20.45 17 5.45 12.33 15.39 16.11 7.60 11.94 11.36 14.29 8.36 13.64 4.76 13.62 8.43 18.89 7.58 15.31 5.19 19 4.6 ********************************************************************* Deviation below 10 % of spx: Very shocking results Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Long Long Long Long Long Long Long Long The safest area to go long with every thing else is being absolute !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Deviation pullback 9.60 4.60 ********************************************************************** All acceptable pullbacks happened above 10 % of SPX's 200W MA !!! very safe zone to be long is when deviation is 9.99 and under . Most important discovery of this study of this indicator with every thing else being absolute !!! ********************************************************************************** Deviation Below 200W MA: 49-37 Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy and Hold Hold Hold Hold Hold All Deviation below 200W MA ----------------------------------- 16.90 7.04 49.44 37.98 10.64 8.03 5.87 4.12 6.15 38.94 5.55 26.75 10.05 13.92 3.35 ************************************************ Summery of all summaries : ( Keep this handy close by for your swings : -) --------------------------------------------- Deviation Singal.D Double.D 50 + 54 46 40-49.99 46 54 30-30.99 76 24 20-29.99 71 29 10-19.99 72 25 Below 10 4.6 Zero ------------------------------------------------ Hope this would be like a Guide Book for this weekly indicator. Keep the summaries close by for your trading . wish you all the best.
SP:SPX
by samitrading
SPX's Deviation from 200D MA since inception's day 1957Hey guys what's up I am including all the data here so you can copy, share or edit it on Microsoft apps. feel free to reuse of redistribute all my work to our trading view community or out side it. March's low is most likely a fresh new cycle to say the least " believe it or not" with out bias you would come to this conclusion one way or another and you should accept if before time proof that for you. (even if we get big corrections this is how financial markets behave : -) ) Moreover i probably did allot of mistakes here and there, missed allot of important details ... but i did everything with most to my ability : -) ************************************* SUMMERY: (RED #s) During each new cycle we usually get the higher & highest numbers. the more we go into the cycle the more the deviations get lower. Moreover, we do get allot of NOT worthy to mention pullbacks even though we have higher number of deviation !!! . --------------So, no GOLDEN RULE here at all.--------------- wish you all the best. ************************************************************** SUMMERY: (BLUE #s) Deviation below 200d MA is not that common on a daily chart, and i assume it would be more rare on a weekly chart. (5 r single digits-4r20s—9 r teens-1is30s-2r40s- 1is50( Most extremes since inception r (54-47-46-32) ------------"40 % 10-19"/"22% below 10"/"8% 20s"--------- BUY BUY BUY BBUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY -----------WHEN YOU SEE THOSE "3" EXTREEMS.------------- Deviation below 200d MA. -8 -25.37 -6.08 -19.91 - 7.41 -32.88 -9.94 -46.18 -15.63 -22.66 -11.51 -11.40 -27.48 -14.60 -12.49 -47.69 2000 -54.77 2007 -16.48 -9 % -12.21 % -15.13 -27.81 covid-19 *************************************************************************** SUMMERY: (GREEN #s) Some of the biggest corrections/crashes/crisis came from small percentages of deviation from SPX's price !!! That's a key note to be observed closely. In Contrary to the general view that the more we go the more likely we have a stronger crash ---------- DATA says this is WRONG!!!--------------------- Since the inception of Standard & Poor's 500 : -------------------------------------------------------- 11.79 Covid -19 crash 6.4 % 2018 correction 3.45 % 2015 correction 12.21 % 2011 6.95 % 2007 crisis 6.11 % 2000 crisis 14.95 % 1999 correction 17 % 1998 correction 5.68 % 1994 10 % pullback 7.20 % 1990 correction 20 % 17.92 % 1987 crisis 20 1980 correction 13 % 1980 correction 8 % 1976 big Correction 9.97 % 1973 big crash 11.85 % 1968 big correction 5.96 % 1966 big correction 8.47 % 1962 big correction 8.62 1959 big correction ----------------------------- we have a range of 20%- 3.45 % ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Summery : (Orange) the largest 15 crashes in the history of SPX since inception has no relation what so ever. 53 % of corrections came from double digits % deviation!!! 47% of correction came from single digit deviations The largest crashes since 1957 (inception): ---------------------------------------------------- 11.79 35.27 covid-19 crash 6.45 20.23 12.21 21.59 6.95 57 2007 crash 13.18 50 2000 crash 14.69 22.52 7.2 20.32 17.92 36 20.39 28.08 13.76 21.58 8.02 20 9.97 52.08 big crash 73 11.85 37.12 big crash 1969 5.96 23.69 big crash 1966 8.74 29.26 1962 big crash ------------- So it is 50-50 chance !!!!!---------------- ********************************************************************** All Deviation above 20 + except for few where at the beginning of new cycle. In another word they came all after big crashes/corrections. Therefore getting these high numbers of deviation is confirming YES confirming that we are beginning a new cycle.: 18 % of these double digits pullbacks. 82 % of these are a single digit pullback. After March's low we r getting high #s(new Cycle)!! All Deviation above 20 + ----------------------------------- 20.63 6.55 Beg. 20.81 5.57 Beg. 21.22 7.18 20.49 4 N.wm Beg. 1982 20.63 3.27 beg. 1982 20.85 6.24 Beg. 1982 23.78 9.03 Beg. 1982 20.39 28.08 21.23 15.54 Beg. 23.90 5.52 Beg. 20.15 4.69 Beg ******************************************************************* Summery: All deviations between 15-19.99 20 % of these we get a double digit pullback 80 % is a shocking single digits pullback !!!!! All deviation between 15-19.99 -------------------------------------- 16.17 10.37 16.54 7.17 17.11 5.07 N.WM 16 13.07 19.76 6.49 16.53 10.29 15 6.03 15.97 6.43 15.46 3.5 N.WM 16.82 3.47 N.WM 17.92 36 19 9.33 16.23 9.12 18.87 4.86 19.77 5.05 16.78 7.63 18.14 7.79 18.31 15.47 Beg. 19.69 3.60 Beg. ***************************************************************** Summery: All deviation between 10-14.99 36 % of the time we will get double digit pullbacks up to 64 % of the time single digits pullbacks. Therefor this area is favoring small dips !!!! All deviation between 10-14.99 Deviation pullbacks 13.42 8.9 11.79 covid-19 crash 35.27 13.91 11.84 13.81 7.58 12.24 10.96 12.21 21.59 12.35 17.16 14.70 9.26 11.28 8.55 Beg. 14.14 5.35 Beg. 13.18 2000 crash 14.13 13.13 14.69 22.52 11.76 7.39 13.95 5.96 N.WM 10.79 11.04 12.77 3.95 N.WM Beg. 13.99 2.59 N.WM Beg. 14.57 14.57 N.WM Beg. 14.01 5.59 N.WM Beg. 13.89 9.26 10.80 4.76 N.wm Beg. 10.93 10.14 10.69 8.28 10.14 3.18 N.wm 12.90 4.03 N.wm 13.76 21.58 13.79 15.15 10/13/13 6/6/4.70 N.W 11.85 37.12 big crash 1969 13.87 8.36 Beg. 12.39 5.06 Beg. 11.83 4.41 Beg. 13.86 4.42 Beg. 14.97 3.36 Beg. 10.82 1.86 Beg. Summery: 36 % of the time we will get double digit pullbacks up to 64 % of the time single digists pullbacks.Therefor this area is favoring small dips !!!! *********************************************************************** ************************************************************************************************************************ Summery: All Deviations between 5-9.99. 28 % of them double digits pullbacks 72% single digits pullbacks. Either, my 42 sample is not enough and in this area i am wrong, or things get missy around these numbers !!!!!!! All Deviations between 5-9.99 Deviation pullbacks 6.94 6.94 8.89 6.87 6.75 7.64 6.45 20.23 8.92 8.87 6.32 4.76 6.99 5.16 6.78 9.88 9.23 6.12 9.44 8.90 6.95 2007 crash 7.67 12 9.02 6.69 5.75 8.09 6.95 7.32 9.89 10.35 5.68 9.70 7.7 5.36 9.22 6.75 7.2 20.32 8.74 11.30 7.40 7.43 N.wm Beg. 8.46 14.68 9.69 11.73 9.06 4.05 8. 9.97 52.08 big crash 73 8.23/9/10 6.23/6.18/6.55 02 20 8.89 8.50 9.72 4.66 5.96 23.69 big crash 1966 6.32 4.41 6.16 10.94 6.37 4.87 8.90 4.19 8.69 4.47 8.98 2.83 N.wm 8.40 7.59 8.74 29.26 big crash 62 8.69 3.89 8.62 9.32 ************************************************************************ Summery: All deviation below 5 % off 200D MA is just 50 % double digits % 50 % single digits pullbacks. All deviation below 5 : 2.66 14.50 3.45 12.28 4.94 6.16 3.7 6.71 4.83 3.96 4.65 6.75 4.62 11.35 4.16 13.63 big crash *********************************************************************** ****************************************** All raw data Total of most extended deviation since the inception of S&P 500 in 1957 : ---------------------------------------- Deviation----pullback/corrections ????????????????????????????????? 13.42 8.9 16.17 10.37 11.79 covid-19 crash 35.27 6.94 6.94 8.89 6.87 6.75 7.64 6.45 20.23 8.92 8.87 13.91 11.84 6.32 4.76 2.66 14.50 3.45 12.28 6.99 5.16 6.78 9.88 9.23 6.12 13.81 7.58 9.44 8.90 12.24 10.96 12.21 21.59 12.35 17.16 14.70 9.26 20.63 6.55 20.81 5.57 6.95 2007 crash 7.67 12 9.02 6.69 5.75 8.09 4.94 6.16 6.95 7.32 11.28 8.55 Beg. 14.14 5.35 Beg. 6 2000 crash 13.18 2000 crash 9.89 10.35 14.13 13.13 16.54 7.17 14.69 22.52 17.11 5.07 N.WM 11.76 7.39 16 13.07 19.76 6.49 16.53 10.29 13.95 5.96 N.WM 10.79 11.04 15 6.03 12.77 3.95 N.WM Beg. 13.99 2.59 N.WM Beg. 14.57 14.57 N.WM Beg. 5.68 9.70 7.7 5.36 3.7 6.71 4.83 3.96 9.22 6.75 4.65 6.75 14.01 5.59 N.WM Beg. 15.97 6.43 N.WM Beg. 7.2 20.32 8.74 11.30 13.89 9.26 15.46 3.5 N.WM 16.82 3.47 N.WM 10.80 4.76 N.wm Beg. 7.40 7.43 N.wm Beg. 17.92 36 19 9.33 10.93 10.14 16.23 9.12 18.87 4.86 19.77 5.05 21.22 7.18 12.48 5.58 10.69 8.28 11.21 canceled this one too close 10.14 3.18 N.wm 12.90 4.03 N.wm 8.46 14.68 16.78 7.63 20.49 4 N.wm Beg. 20.63 3.27 beg. 20.85 6.24 Beg. 23.78 9.03 Beg. 16.05 canceled with in a crash 20.39 28.08 18.14 7.79 13.76 21.58 9.69 11.73 9.06 4.05 13.79 15.15 4.9 canceled within a crash 8.02 20 10/13/13 6/6/4.70 N.W 21.23 15.54 Beg. 23.90 5.52 Beg. 9.97 52.08 big crash 73 8.23/9/10 6.23/6.18/6.55 N.W 18.31 15.47 Beg. 19.69 3.60 Beg. 20.15 4.69 Beg. 11.85 37.12 big crash 1969 4.62 11.35 8.89 8.50 9.72 4.66 13.87 8.36 Beg. 5.96 23.69 big crash 1966 6.32 4.41 6.16 10.94 6.37 4.87 8.90 4.19 8.69 4.47 8.98 2.83 N.wm 8.40 7.59 12.39 5.06 Beg. 11.83 4.41 Beg. 8.74 29.26 62 big crash 8.69 3.89 13.86 4.42 Beg. 14.97 3.36 Beg. 10.82 1.86 Beg. 4.16 13.63 big crash 8.62 9.32 15 Beg. 15 Beg. 15 Beg.
SP:SPX
by samitrading
14
SPX500 could PUMP again!Hey tradomaniacs, After a re-test of the current trendline and key-support-zone we could see another bounce upwards in order to complete the impulse-wave-pattern. Price-Action showing demand at this zone and so higher bullish confluence. A pump today could be important for pairs such as NZD/USD, AUD/CHF and NZD/JPY to break their key-resistance-levels. Since price and spread can vary for this assets I don`t make an call with exact Entries. LEAVE A LIKE AND A COMMENT - I appreciate every support! =) Peace and good trades Irasor Wanna see more? Don`t forget to follow me. Any questions? PM me. :-)
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by Trading2ez
3
SPX could MOVE UP NOW!Hey tradomaniacs, looking at SPX500 we might get a great chance to buy very soon if the current breakout continues. The consolidation seems to be done soon with the previous breakout and could attract more bulls to take action. Buy-Zone would be above the resistance-zone and trendline (b) which is a high liquidity-zone looking at market-depth. Keep in mind that LIQUIDITY and VOLUME can be very thin as US-market is closed due to Thanksgiving! More risk on could boost Majors against US-DOLLAR. LEAVE A LIKE AND A COMMENT - I appreciate every support! =) Peace and good trades Irasor Wanna see more? Don`t forget to follow me. Any questions? PM me. :-)
FOREXCOM:SPX500Long
by Trading2ez
Analytisng S&P 500 Direction using RSI Tunnels indicatorUsing the RSI Tunnel indicator of mine to analyse S&P 500 direction. As you can see in the chart, it's quite touching the resistance at 3590. We did get a bullish signal with RSI Tunnel indicator like 6 bars ago. Be cautious, if it breaks resistance level it will do it strong, otherwise we have pullback. Note: In case you want to help me test the RSI tunnel indicator, msg me. It also works well on lower time frames. LIKE this idea as i will update this idea with the actual results of the s&p500.
SP:SPX
by dman103
1
SPX500 BUY IDEA #DaytradeHey tradomaniacs, welcome to a new free trading-setup. This is meant to be a preparation for you. As always we will have to wait for a confirmation! SPX500: Daytrade-Preparation Notice: Identified lots of buyers with the retest in market-depth but market overall very shaky! Low risk and aggressive management or stay out! Market very tricky! Waiting for more bullish confluence with the current retest. Market-Buy: 3298,00 Stop-Loss: 3270,00 Target 1: 3327,00 Target 2: 3343,00 Target 3: 3365,00 Stop-Loss: 28 pips Risk: 0,5% - 1% Risk-Reward: 2,35 LEAVE A LIKE AND A COMMENT - I appreciate every support! =) Peace and good trades Irasor Wanna see more? Don`t forget to follow me. Any questions? PM me. :-)
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by Trading2ez
S&P 500 short position/SPX SELL and DROP=SHORTSPX shows signs of serious weakness having on mind technical side of the story. TECHNICAL PART: - DAILY MACD BEARISH -WEEKLY MACD BEARISH -DAILY STOCH RSI BEARISH. -WEEKLY STOCK RSI BEARISH From technical side i don't have doubts that stock market will experience one more crash which will be followed by inflation of USD towards 1,26 and 1,35 instance over EUR. From fundamental side, S&P 500 had three technical years historticaly (continual growth since 2008-nowdays) followed by a big crash on January 30.th when index fell from 3400-2200 index points. THATS 12 YEARS OF CONTINUAL GROWTH APROXIMATELY, since 1 technological year equates to 4-5 calendar years. USD MADE TRIPLE JUMP IN TECHNOLOGICAL SECTION BRINGING TECHNOLOGY to 5 NM. THEREFORE, I DO EXPECT SIMULATIOUS DROP ON NDAQ AND DJI. Now, after this " butterfly pattern" manifests, index of this unsustainable price will bring #SPX index to 2400 points and lower levels including very top of it at 1867 level. GERMAN ECONOMY WILL FOLLOW, I've stated it in the other chart of mine : CLEAR YOUR POSITIONS. Cheers
TVC:SPXShort
by milanjelic