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Spx500forecast

Hindenburg Omen is ON. Market might slide much lower. Last week there were perfect conditions for Hindenburg Omen indicator. Markets seems unstable at the moment, > 3% of stocks marking both new 52w highs and lows. The Hindenburg Omen looks for a statistical deviation from the premise that under normal conditions, securities are either making new 52-week highs or 52-week lows. The abnormality would be if both were occurring at the same time. According to the Hindenburg Omen, an occurrence such as this is considered to be a harbinger of impending danger for a stock market. The signal typically occurs during an uptrend, where new highs are expected and new lows are rare, suggesting that the market is becoming nervous and indecisive, traits that often lead to a bear market. For it to be on 4 conditions should be satisfied: 1. Number of new 52-week highs and 52-week lows in a stock market are greater than a threshold (2.2% for example). 2. Positive recent trend. Index > index 3. The McClellan Oscillator ( MCO ) is negative. 4. 52-week highs cannot be more than two times the 52-week lows. You can read more about the indicator on Investopedia: www.investopedia.com
TVC:SPXShort
by QuantNomad
5
#SPY $SPX500 #SP500 catching the Top, any Bears alive?Hello My fellow Bears, so before I share my thoughts I want to just tell you that shorting the SP500 was not a good Idea. Major Uptrend Longest Bullrun in History, Fed pumping liquidity , Stock Majors Buyback Excess and Trump Tweets. And by the way the Oval Office released a note that there will be a 11 am EST an Pressmeeting - just right about the overnight time when Major Index began showing some Weakness - Coincidence or do we see a new "Stockrocket All Time high" Tweet by Trump Today? I was able to get my Short Position on the SP500 right after the Overnight Break, with a very tight Stop Loss just to be protected against any irrational Market Move caused by some Tweet. My Key Area was the SP500 Trading around 3330 and how it will behave around there. So what is the Pirce doing on 4H timeframe Still Above 50 EMA Still above 200 EMA 4H Stochastic pointing down lower high on the RSI while price is making higher highs Targets 50 EMA (green)(if it Holds the price this will probably move again up) 100 EMA (purple) 200 EMA (red) this is my First Major Target if this Short plays out (Probably i am going to close the half Position there, it all depends how we would or could arrive there, if we overshoot with this Pullback I would set my Stoploss into a Take Profit right Above the 200 SMA and let it run. Target Area Explanation If the SP500 would Pull Back from 3330 Area it would target next Support Zones and would be still in a Major Uptrend. 0.236 Fib Retracement vicinity 200 EMA and 200 SMA on the 4H Timeframe for Support lower Rising Trendline from the rising Channel for Support Market could retest the 3200 Area were we had some Volatility at the Start of January. So if you are holding a Short or having thoughts about opening one, just be prepared to watch these key Levels. Happy Bull-Hunting and Trade Safe.
FOREXCOM:SPX500Short
by koboltrading
1
SPX 2020 Prediction, to start the year off weak! Then 3400?We just ended a decade and a wild ride for 2019 having risen nearly 30%. From here many investors and traders may assume that there will be a strong move lower because prices can't go up forever. Normally, however, after such a strong gain, markets have the tendency to continue to rise the following year. That doesn't mean we can't see a pullback and that is what we expect at the beginning of 2020. After having risen so much in the last two months, green week after green week volume started to thin out at the top as the big-money left for the holidays. Meaning there could be profit-taking come January. What happened in 2019? -The Fed Cut rates 3 times, providing cheaper borrowing so big money took advantage of it and flooded the markets -The Fed implemented a secret QE4, pumping USD into the economy -The Trade deal has had great progression, looking to sign Phase 1 (To be signed of January 15th) -Stock buybacks over $700B which caused artificial valuation of equities So what do we expect in 2020? A slight pullback to start the year from profit-taking, we just hit a 1.5 Fib expansion level where price failed the first time recently. The expected pullback before the continued move is the previous broken high at first at 3155 which is about 2.95% of a pullback. The ultimate level we're watching for is the 3100-3105 where the impulse for the move higher had begun, that is a 4.3-4.4% pullback from the current price. From there price has the opportunity to make a move up to 3350-3400. However the drop has to be on low volume if traders are to be excited about the upside. This idea is for educational purposes only, this does not constitute trading or investment advice. TRADEPRO Academy is not responsible for any market activity.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by TRADEPROAcademy
1
ridethepig | SPX Market Commentary 2019.13.12An end of year update for US Equities with valuation targets at 3240/54 I am tracking for an overshoot into the 3200 handle to sell into. For those tracking the current flows, the most important chart I have been showing to all clients is the 2s 5s curve: The major top in USD will help for a few months at most, as soon as we enter into the next chapter in the economic cycle it will be too little too late. With tail risks making positioning very tricky, here we have a very good macro chart showing the high bar for any growth shock and how it weighs heavy on risk appetite. All year long expectations around monetary policy easing have been in the driving seat while geopolitics shouts loudly from the sidelines. The protectionism we are seeing is already starting to show effects on global growth and with a soft backdrop the exposure to these shocks enhance. Rotation is in full swing as we see large large hands move from equities to bonds, and from higher risk credit to lower risk, we naturally are seeing a rotation from cyclicals to defensives and finally into safe havens like Gold, Yen and Swiss Franc to a lesser extent. The map is clear that we are still yet to have a relative breakout in Cyclicals vs defensives as shown below: With Yields miles ahead of the moves lately we are approaching a major breakout in US banks, a relative breakout here of the downtrend will be significant going into year-end. On the FX side, USD devaluation will help and yields finding a floor indicate smart money is turning the titanic. It should now be a matter of 'when' rather than 'if' Utilities are going to breakout assuming we do not get any major updates on the impeachment front. Defensives still look relatively strong, despite technical patterns starting to top in things like Consumer Staples: Lastly the infamous Long Term Consumer Staples Chart: Thanks all for supporting these ideas with likes and jumping into the conversation with your ideas and charts in the comments. Good luck those trading US Equities into year-end and positioning for 2020, we will update the chart as we go through the coming weeks with a technical dissection of 2020 flows and targets.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by ridethepig
3
SPX500 selloff PENDING to 3070 *history repeats itself* MID-LONG WHEN IN DOUBT, ZOOM OUT! ON the SHORTSELL we're looking at possibility 1-2 (maybe even 3 ATHs on SPX500 index) to follow suit -- a consolidation in what is/will be a a continuation of this bullish priceaction we've been seeing; the same I've been calling for since the start of Q4 yet we are almost at the apex, the mountaintop is approaching which will *(presumably after the holidays)* lead to further bullish priceaction followed by a selloff treading us down toward the $3070.5 area, a bearish dump which should approach fast & furiously if the pink trendline from DEC '17 is any indication, we're seeing a repetition in priceaction that will ultimately lead to a retracement -- though keeping it on the EMA for you forex swing traders , SPX500 has had an UNDOUBTEDLY FANTASTIC RUN THE PAST 2-3 QUARTERS, FOR ALL OF 2019! yet all good things must come to an end. Remember this publication is LONG so although the slope between the green TP line & current price seems miniscule, it could actually take a while (pointless to speculate timeframe) but >30D before it reaches that apex leading us to the selloff @ 3070.5 Great thing about stock predictions is that much less volatility == much more predictability == much less $ROI due to lower risk/low reward. Like riding a bike with training wheels on flat terrain as opposed to riding a mountain bike on gear 10 up everest (forex trading wallst vs forex trading @coinmarketcal) This could very well be fantastic news for $crypto priceaction as (much similar to all other commodities) it parallels precious metals, XAU, etc. as a means of FUD for those looking to liquidate assets in times of speculative uncertainty aka FUD. I'll leave it at that for now. Also, $BNB priceaction looking solid for entry (defer to linked publication below) but I digress. Peace & Love. Happy Holidays & New Years -- will follow up with daily publications (as promised) after the Holidays circa Jan 10-12th. Disclaimer Not financial Advise. Please invest wisely & always set stop-losses. -@a1mTarabichi
OANDA:SPX500USD
by a1mtarabichi
S&P 500: Santa Claus RallyHello everybody! PrimeXBT is here again with another technical analysis breakdown, and today we are taking a look at Standard and Poor's 500 Index. News and Fundamental Analysis: While the Asian markets are currently subdued, Wall Street is caught within a firm and unwavering uptrend. The S&P 500 hit a sixth consecutive high on Thursday — its longest streak since January 2018 — and it closed at a record high along with the Nasdaq and the Dow Jones. On the other hand, investors still do not understand what is included in the “Phase 1” of the trade agreement between China and the United States. Overall, this is a worrying sign that the US economy may be slowing down again at a time when the Fed has stopped its monetary policy softening. It should be noted that such signals act as a leading indicator of business cycles, and therefore market players usually pay close attention to them, but not now. Technical Analysis: Currently, SPX is hitting strong resistance that’s coming from 1.618% Fibonacci — which is a resistance level. The price action combined with the Relative Strength Index is staying strong, but BTC has formed a bearish divergence, which often indicates that a trend reversal is forming from bullish to bearish, and a downtrend or valuation adjustment could soon follow. Such price action was seen in May of 2015 . Once the price reaches the resistance level, a rejection could cause a fall to 1.272% Fibonacci which is our support level. Support level: 3100 Resistance level: 3300 Day's range: 3192.3 — 3205.5 Be careful though, don't forget about capital & risk management. Keep an eye out for more PrimeXBT trading signals for SPX and other assets.
TVC:SPX
by UnknownUnicorn3931771
3
Potential S&P 500 ScenarioIt's been a while since I shared anything like this... most of the last few things were experimental historical models... This is all based in Fibonacci, both price and time... this would have us peaking at about 3450 around late September 2020... Though I don't have the count posted with it, it is based in Elliott Wave as well... The EW concept here is an extended wave 1, with 3 being 0.786 of 1 and 5 being 0.786 of 3 - which leads to waves 3+5 equaling wave 1 (typical when 1 is extended)... Just thought I'd share what I was looking at
SP:SPXLong
by J-Streak
SPX500: Further Upside Expected - RSI Shows Strong Bull MomentumHi Traders, I was initially expecting price to form an ending diagonal, thereby slowing down the bull trend for downside. However the ending diagonal is now invalid because price has slightly broken out of the structure in the past week. What's more is that we have no divergence on the RSI, and this indicates further upside. Therefore, we can keep buying the pullbacks until price shows signs of slowing down. Regards, Wave Theorist
TVC:SPXLong
by UnknownUnicorn5158708
This is why the SPX is overdue for at least a 2.50% pullbackThe equity markets in the US have been moving really well through highs like its nobody's business, however as they continuously progress the moves get shorter and the pullbacks non-existent. Recent a 1.5-2 year wedge in formation was broken to the upside which indicates a bull trend continuation. Usually, the pop above the broken resistance will revert at least temporarily to the broken level before moving higher. This isn't a crash and recession call to all-time lows rather an opportunity to identify a potential retrace before a larger pop. The facts are, the volume on this whole break higher has been terribly low, no one wants to buy a market at all-time highs and no one wants to sell because they want more profit. Its been 2 months with just 1 red week and that red week was insignificant. The pullback brings the price down to the wedge break and previous highs at least 2.50% lower than the price right now. From there, there will be 2 catalysts that bring price higher. 1. A lot of big money is waiting for an "in" on the long side of the market and when deemed cheap enough will bid up the market by strong buying. 2. The Fed is still pumping A LOT of money into the economy at abysmally low rates.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by TRADEPROAcademy
6
SPX Breaking record for broken recordsI thought I’d include a little oped and some political analysis seeing as how that is part of my expertise & biggest passions. This publication was intended to be made at the start of the market open but I got wrapped up in this circus called life; C’est La Vie. The SPX 500 index is shattering all analysts expectations as Trump did say we would ”Win BIGLY!...winning so often that we‘d get tired of winning!” , and in doing so while both hands tied behind his back is a PHENOMENAL (and truly ironic; in the sense that they want to impeach him.) ahead of the systemic breakdown of the deep state. I truly detest that conspiratorial connotations attached to that entity, what else do you call a cabal of unelected officials (mostly Obama holdovers) in the highest levels and upper echelons or our government literally conspiring with the legacy media in cahoots with big tech and the propaganda engine that is: Jeff squared (Zucker/Bezos) & lets not forget to give a shoutout to Media Matters Tom Steyer for letting their hatred of one New York businessman/real estate tycoon be substantially greater than their love or our constitutional democratic republic— -as the slow moving coup commences to unseat a duly elected official , WallSt once again slaps Adam “Schifty” Schiff & Nancy “Powerless” Pelosi right across the race with the metaphorical equivalent of political chess mate with milestone after historic achievement after milestone after historic achievement.. •.Kim summit • Energy sufficiency • >2 Dozen NASDAQ ATHs • ROARING economy in an otherwise unsettled and anxious; polarized social environment despite 401(K)s and wage growth • Not to mention historic unemployment and • Only President to fulfill every campaign promise in modern history.. • Defeated caliphate and Baghdadi The list could go on... I’ll include a more in depth, meticulously written oped when I get on my PC (yes I’m on my mobile phone right now) including and especially pertaining to the modern history from the start of the postmodern era and why it is quintessential for traders to understand modern history (From post World War II era 1945 is a solid place to start) and how it is literally The combination of the series of events that took place Between 1939 to 1945 where America was ranked 17 out of 17 in terms of military my versus just six short years later leaving 2 empires and Europe in ashes as the Phoenix and Not only military but economic powerhouse has been us ever since, a fact l I think is often overlooked/undermined (our economic leadership and not just military) Now with an unstoppable economic track record; SPX is clearly flourishing. When all is said and done history will remember President Trump has all of the most consequential POTUS in history...believe me I was never a fan (at first) however I am a patriotic objective and pragmatic individual (unlike our elected officials) and when I see something that is good for the nation, regardless of the uncalibrated moral compass of the POTUS in question — he is still our commander-in-chief and it’s funny because i travel very frequently and often hear dnc hacksn in the legacy media say that the world is laughing at us because of his behavior; from my experience this is a falsehood.... Most of the people that I talk to would wish they had a president as fervently dedicated to putting nationalistic policy agendas in motion—- “ America First” and their nations respect his unapologetic, magnanimous persona.... but I digress. I will update more later... In the meantime I will proceed with more signals! I have been slacking as of late and for that I am double sorry. Follow / like / share / subscribe if you want to hear more from me about Political science and consumer based sociology, modern history and current events. @a1mTarabichi I apologize for the almost 4 H late publication!! You know what they say... Better late than never but never late is better..
SP:SPX
by a1mtarabichi